How is it possible to feel sorry for them?

Here is what I referenced some days back as Harper's contract not being the biggest, the largest contracts put into constant dollars, etc.  (Thanks to Fangraphs and Craig Edwards)


Also, the contracts of Harper and Machado are within $2M of each other on the net present value of the respective cash flows.  Value the opt out as you want.  Machado could dip in again for more than Harper in theory based on the length of the respective deals.  Value chances of winning a world series as you want, value the sun of Southern CA vs Philly as you want.  

What's missing for a true net comparison of the financials is the impact of taxes.


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Thanks for that chart, very informative.

That offer was so pathetic that it really wasn't an offer. Harper doesn't owe the Nationals a courtest of refusal, nor are they entitled to his attention. When they go that bad on lowballing, they have failed to earn those things.

I have to say that this is just wrong.  The rumors are that Harper and Boras wish they would have TAKEN the Nats offer if they could go back in time as they did not expect the market to be like it was, despite the eventual signings by Manny and Bryce.  There is nothing pathetic about offering 300m for 10 years last fall.  The supposed deferrals and back end structure allowed the Nats to deal with other players and signings (like getting Corbin and instantly making the pitching rotation better).  Have you run the tax consequences and present values?  Probably not so do not say the offer was pathetic as neither of us know the actual details.  Plus then you go back and say this is what I don't like about the offer, I want this instead etc.  

Moreover there is this thing in the world called common courtesy.  Harper did say no thank you, that they wanted to test the free agent market.  And the Nats are not entitled to his attention?  He was drafted by them, lived in (and loved) DC and was given a lot of free reign here.  They have an existing relationship and btw a very good one with Boras who represents multiple other Nats.  The Nats do not need to earn anything from Bryce it is JUST THE OPPOSITE.  He needs to earn his salary -- they are/were his BOSSES.  He was given a very good starting offer (if you look at the chart, the differences between Machado and Harper in terms of net present value are $2 m) and decided to move on, as his right.  But no need to be rude, which he wasn't.  Some sources in DC are saying they regret not signing so there you go.

Do you understand the Nationals offered 300 paid out over 35 years? That’s money not in Harpers account earning interest. What if the Nationals went bankrupt in twenty years? It’s not likely. But anything is possible.

If he was listening to Boras and he was, then anything the Nats offered that wasn't 10 Years $300+ was almost certain to be rejected and market tested.

Nats were kind of cagey here - they knew that and made an offer that on the face seems very real but term was too long.  Nats win the PR battle because they get to say they tried to keep him rather than just outright lowballing him.  I don't think they had the stomach for this kind of deal.

FWIW I think the Arenado deal was a winner for both sides.  Rockies have cornerstone player locked up for fair money and he will probably spend his whole career in Denver. Looking for at least another 6 years of 35 HR 120 RBI per from him. He will be hanging up HOF numbers and might have biggest totals for any 3B ever if he stays healthy and in CO.

Something to think about when paying players long term deals.  Consider the Mets will have that HOF'er Bobby Bonilla on the payroll for longer than the Phillies will have to pay Harper.  Anyone think those 95 homers he hit for the Mets were any kind of bargain?  Desperation is a terrible thing. 

Bonilla requested the deferred payoff. The Mets were going to pay whether it was in NPV or deferred. It was a good deal for the Mets. The decision to sign Bonilla at all was the bad decision.

Regarding Arenado he stayed in Colorado where he wasn’t risking his numbers and power reputation diminished. Although at a 56/44 home and away ratio with his homer totals he would still be 30+ playing elsewhere.

RJM - agree on Bonilla deferred comp but Wilpon's invested the money with Madoff and gave Bonilla an 8% coupon which is pretty rich.  They made other deals of this type with Saberhagan and Gilkey so it looks like they had a fondness for trying to make bets to get out of these big contracts at that time.

IMO they were three time losers on this.  1) Signing Bonilla at all  2) Betting they could earn more than the deferred comp 3) Money with Madoff.

Flip side is they took the money they saved deferring Bonilla's money and bought Mike Hampton and that help pay off in one of the few bight spots in the last 30 years for the Mets in a WS appearance.  The compensatory pick they got for Hampton leaving was parlayed into David Wright. 

So they were actually big winners on the baseball side of dumping Bonilla even if they got bruised in the wallet as it looks like they did.  

Pocket watching....

Salary talk is just more fan fodder for discussions and arguments.  See above thread.

I wonder if sports would be less enjoyable if salaries were private.  My answer is no.  We would move on to another subject to argue about.  

The Machado and Harper deals sound fair to me.  Baseball has built a crappy salary system.  Proof of how difficult bargained change is more than anything.  "Owners, players, let's work together for a common good"  LOL!  Looking forward to the strike when the CBA expires.

fenwaysouth posted:

After the contract is signed is when I can feel a little bit of empathy...when he has to take the field to earn that ginormous contract.   Machado is a tool.  Now he is a rich tool with with talent and skills on the baseball field.   The problem is he is not going to be able to live up to that money because there is no supporting cast and nobody to protect him in the lineup with the possible exception of Hosmer who has a decent eye at the plate.  Plus Petco is not a hitters ball park, and not a long ball friendly stadium.   Nobody on the current Padres team is hitting over .300.   It is going to be a brutal year for Machado at the plate.  

I'm not saying they can't screw it up, and I'm not saying that Milb performance gurantees MLB performance, but seems like everyone in baseball says that the Padres have the top-ranked farm system, so I think that it would be reasonable for Machado to expect to play for a contending team, if not this year, then very soon.  And it's not like the NL West isn't ripe for the taking.

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