How to analysis Roster Turnover 101

And now 19 in the portal to leave this year, and no one going to Eastern Kentucky yet.

Art, that's awesome work.

They had their best season in recent history in 2022.  I know two players there.  One transferred out and one was a starter.   Both have good things to say about the program.  The one that transferred was a walk on who didn't have a lot of options.  He was happy to be part of the team, but the roster number dropping from 40 to 35 got him.  I wonder how many of the transfers fit that mold?  Just trying to add some possible context to the data.   While there are exceptions, coaching changes usually don't work out very well for the current players or commits.   

Agree that this is great information. And while this may surprising to some, it shouldn’t be. This is what is going on in competitive D1 baseball programs.

@d-mac posted:

They had their best season in recent history in 2022.  I know two players there.  One transferred out and one was a starter.   Both have good things to say about the program.  The one that transferred was a walk on who didn't have a lot of options.  He was happy to be part of the team, but the roster number dropping from 40 to 35 got him.  I wonder how many of the transfers fit that mold?  Just trying to add some possible context to the data.   While there are exceptions, coaching changes usually don't work out very well for the current players or commits.  

Great points.  The data just provides an opening toward analysis and context that you added.

@adbono posted:

Agree that this is great information. And while this may surprising to some, it shouldn’t be. This is what is going on in competitive D1 baseball programs.

@abono  I agree, when shown visually people normally get the ah ha moment.

IMHO,  those that have been in the trenches and have some battle scars have been discussing this issue throughout the community.

New guest that are trying to make heads and tails of the recruiting process normally  have to do a significant amount of research in order to assume what may or may not be happening.

Fortunately, we can now cut through the b.s. and start talking apples to apples.

Yes, definitely happening.  Many are being told point blank that they need their scholarship so they can get guys from the portal.  This happened to a LOT of kids.  We even had a 7th round pick who called coach to talk through coming back or going and was told his scholarship had already been given away.  Seriously.

@baseballhs posted:

Yes, definitely happening.  Many are being told point blank that they need their scholarship so they can get guys from the portal.  This happened to a LOT of kids.  We even had a 7th round pick who called coach to talk through coming back or going and was told his scholarship had already been given away.  Seriously.

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I do know that players in the portal are being offered NIL opportunities which could cover tuition as well as 5th year players. There are articles out about how LSU is getting top talent through NIL opportunities.

As far as draft picks, coaches usually have prior discussions about the seriousness of the players intent. It's either you do or you don't. Players should not be held hostage and neither should coaches. When son was recruited he was told point blank, we will give you a scholarship for 3 years, if you are not drafted you pay your last year or go sign FA. I know of a player who went into portal got picked up by a great program, didn't get drafted because he didn't have the #s to get a pick and signed FA. So what was the true intent of the player in the first place? He really wanted to go pro?

I think a big problem was created when the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility. No coach and no program is obligated to keep any player unless they made an impact to the program.

There is blame to go around but the coach bashing is not necessary. Unless someone has sat in the room with the coach and player, don't believe everything you here.

JMO

@baseballhs posted:

Yes, definitely happening.  Many are being told point blank that they need their scholarship so they can get guys from the portal.  This happened to a LOT of kids.  We even had a 7th round pick who called coach to talk through coming back or going and was told his scholarship had already been given away.  Seriously.

With the exception of a few, the bonuses were close to slot value . Note, the player that received low bonuses didn't have leverage.

@TPM posted:

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I do know that players in the portal are being offered NIL opportunities which could cover tuition as well as 5th year players. There are articles out about how LSU is getting top talent through NIL opportunities.

As far as draft picks, coaches usually have prior discussions about the seriousness of the players intent. It's either you do or you don't. Players should not be held hostage and neither should coaches. When son was recruited he was told point blank, we will give you a scholarship for 3 years, if you are not drafted you pay your last year or go sign FA. I know of a player who went into portal got picked up by a great program, didn't get drafted because he didn't have the #s to get a pick and signed FA. So what was the true intent of the player in the first place? He really wanted to go pro.

I think a big problem was created when the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility. No coach and no program is obligated to keep any player unless they made an impact to the program.

There is blame to go around but the coach bashing is not necessary. Unless someone sat in the room with the coach and player, don't believe everything you here.

JMO

Came directly from the player.

@TPM posted:

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I’m not sure how you can say this, just going alphabetically, there is hardly a team without 10 guys in the portal…regardless of where they are in the country.

@TPM posted:

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I do know that players in the portal are being offered NIL opportunities which could cover tuition as well as 5th year players. There are articles out about how LSU is getting top talent through NIL opportunities.

As far as draft picks, coaches usually have prior discussions about the seriousness of the players intent. It's either you do or you don't. Players should not be held hostage and neither should coaches. When son was recruited he was told point blank, we will give you a scholarship for 3 years, if you are not drafted you pay your last year or go sign FA. I know of a player who went into portal got picked up by a great program, didn't get drafted because he didn't have the #s to get a pick and signed FA. So what was the true intent of the player in the first place? He really wanted to go pro.

I think a big problem was created when the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility. No coach and no program is obligated to keep any player unless they made an impact to the program.

There is blame to go around but the coach bashing is not necessary. Unless someone sat in the room with the coach and player, don't believe everything you here.

JMO

IMHO, there is no blame, each stakeholder (governing bodies (e.g. NCAA), schools, coach, students) had to review the cancellation based on their objectives.

Should a student lose eligibility due to circumstances that are out of their control?

I agree, with your assessment that it is a case by case situation.

Maybe there will be an independent survey (anonymous) done by each governing body that would identify the various outcomes.

@baseballhs posted:

I’m not sure how you can say this, just going alphabetically, there is hardly a team without 10 guys in the portal…regardless of where they are in the country.

@baseballhs IMHO there are a couple of events that we would need to look at  regional, conference and school level.

Note, the challenge with the portal is that is doesn't contain position and grad class.  I didn't have time to add that those tags to this year's data

That being said:

The easy events are:

1. HC Changes (to date 42 changes)  - school level  (we can ignore some of the latest changes)
2. Decrease roster size (40 to 35) -  school level

The draft and free agent signing are a little bit more nuance.

History of new commits: New joiners (high school, JUCO pipeline)

Regardless of what is happening now, the question is how does the coach normally manage his roster?  What are the fact patterns?

I don't know if conclusions can be drawn based on previous history, but it might a interesting research project.

IMHO,  next year's spring roster will shed some of the light on this, but will also need some unstructured data, e.g survey to provide the appropriated context.

CBI is correct. There are circumstances, he mentioned, that have to be considered to make a judgment on what's going on because we don't know the status of the player.

Did the coach legitimately take away their scholarship? Some here seem to think that is what's happening, it's not.

Question: Who benefits? The School, Coaches, Player, Parent, the Pro Scout.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Question: Who benefits? The School, Coaches, Player, Parent, the Pro Scout.

Bob

The team. I believe that's every coaches ultimate goal.

JMO

Or should be...

Baseballhs is 100% correct on this issue. And it isn’t limited to any particular region of the country.

@TPM posted:

Did the coach legitimately take away their scholarship? Some here seem to think that is what's happening, it's not.

Again, I don’t know how you can speak so emphatically about this.  I know for a fact that happened to multiple people on our team. My sons roommate will be surprised to know it’s not happening after he was told point blank that they wanted his scholarship back to get someone from the portal and he should leave. His mom, who was crying as she moved him out of the house and tried to find some one to take over his lease, will also be surprised.  I know for sure about 7 players on our team that this happened to….

I realize your son may not be doing this with his team, but we have lots of friends currently playing at different schools all over the country. It IS happening.

Of course  there are lots of factors playing into this. Portal. longer eligibility (we just took a kid who graduated 3 years before my son and they are both Juniors (eyeroll)), coaching changes,  and coach success pulling experienced players  from the portal instead of developing the ones they have, short draft in 20, and shorter draft now.  I make myself very educated about the current state because we are living it.

@baseballhs posted:

Again, I don’t know how you can speak so emphatically about this.  I know for a fact that happened to multiple people on our team. My sons roommate will be surprised to know it’s not happening after he was told point blank that they wanted his scholarship back to get someone from the portal and he should leave. His mom, who was crying as she moved him out of the house and tried to find sonorous take over his lease, will also be surprised.  I know for sure about 7 players on our team that this happened to….

I realize your son may not be doing this with his team, but we have lots of friends currently playing at different schools all over the country. It IS happening.

Of course  there are lots of factors playing into this. Portal. longer eligibility (we just took a kid who graduated 3 years before my son and they are both Juniors (eyeroll)), coaching changes,  and coach success pulling experienced players  from the portal instead of developing the ones they have, short draft kin 20, and shorter draft now.  I make myself very educated about the current state because we are living it.

I support this post 100%. It is right on point.
  I was at a local showcase 2 weeks ago and ran into an All Region 5 JuCo player who had been committed to a ranked Big12 school and was scheduled to report August 1.  I asked him how his summer was going and he said, “I’m looking for a place to play. My Big12 school called and took my scholarship away. They told me that for the amount of scholarship money they offered me they could get 2 guys out of the transfer portal. So that’s what they were going to do.” And that’s exactly wjhat they did.
  These anecdotal stories are real. Statements that “this isn’t happening “ are at best limited to a few programs.

@adbono posted:

I support this post 100%. It is right on point.
  I was at a local showcase 2 weeks ago and ran into an All Region 5 JuCo player who had been committed to a ranked Big12 school and was scheduled to report August 1.  I asked him how his summer was going and he said, “I’m looking for a place to play. My Big12 school called and took my scholarship away. They told me that for the amount of scholarship money they offered me they could get 2 guys out of the transfer portal. So that’s what they were going to do.” And that’s exactly wjhat they did.
  These anecdotal stories are real. Statements that “this isn’t happening “ are at best limited to a few programs.

@adbono there are a lot of moving pieces, my head is spinning.

Quick question, what is the signing deadline for a JUCO player who commits to a 4 yr school? Is the commitment of a JUCO player no different than the HS player?  Meaning more of a verbal commitment?

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@adbono there are a lot of moving pieces, my head is spinning.

Quick question, what is the signing deadline for a JUCO player who commits to a 4 yr school? Is the commitment of a JUCO player no different than the HS player?  Meaning more of a verbal commitment?

As far as I know JuCo players can be signed by a 4 year school up until the time classes begin. If an NLI is signed the commitment is the same. If no NLI there is no commitment on either side. But in the case of this particular JuCo player he had been offered (and accepted) a scholarship and had signed an NLI. The 4 year school reneged on their commitment in mid-July.

@adbono posted:

As far as I know JuCo players can be signed by a 4 year school up until the time classes begin. If an NLI is signed the commitment is the same. If no NLI there is no commitment on either side. But in the case of this particular JuCo player he had been offered (and accepted) a scholarship and had signed an NLI. The 4 year school reneged on their commitment in mid-July.

@adbono So if I understand, the signed NLI was as good as the paper it was written on.  And if he balked, they would make his life miserable, if he calls them out, then he would be blacklisted.

This seems illegal

I can say from my son's school, there were 10 players in the portal. 5 players were cut out, and 5 requested to be put in. On the positive side I can say all have found homes. I don't know the complete breakdown but 1 committed to a P5 that was in the CWS, 1 is at a HA D3, and most of the remaining are committed to D1s. One kid gave up baseball and accepted a scholarship to play squash or some racquet sport somewhere.

It does seem like kids are seeing this as the new norm, and don't expect to be at a school for 4 years. It's not great...

As a parent it makes you jaded. I get emails from my 2022s school about coming to campus events, to join their Facebook groups, etc. And all I can think is that it's unlikely my son will be there for 4 years and I delete them.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@adbono So if I understand, the signed NLI was as good as the paper it was written on.  And if he balked, they would make his life misery, if he calls them out, then he would be blacklisted.

This seems illegal

It’s all about semantics and plausible deniability. I’m sure the words are chisen very carefully so if questioned the school can always assert that it was the player’s choice given the circumstances. Btw, the ones doing this are very adept at presenting the circumstances in a way that staying is not an option. The system has always been slanted in favor of the schools. The NCAA has made sure of that.

@nycdad posted:

I can say from my son's school, there were 10 players in the portal. 5 players were cut out, and 5 requested to be put in. On the positive side I can say all have found homes. I don't know the complete breakdown but 1 committed to a P5 that was in the CWS, 1 is at a HA D3, and most of the remaining are committed to D1s. One kid gave up baseball and accepted a scholarship to play squash or some racquet sport somewhere.

It does seem like kids are seeing this as the new norm, and don't expect to be at a school for 4 years. It's not great...

As a parent it makes you jaded. I get emails from my 2022s school about coming to campus events, to join their Facebook groups, etc. And all I can think is that it's unlikely my son will be there for 4 years and I delete them.

@NYCDAD @adbono d1baseball has a interesting article pertaining to the new norm and limiting fall roster sizes to 45.  It is behind the paywall so I need to respect their protocols.

What they basically have stated is any school can be a potential feeder to the top 20 - 40 schools.

When I get a chance, I will try to summarize in a more coherent way

@adbono posted:

It’s all about semantics and plausible deniability. I’m sure the words are chisen very carefully so if questioned the school can always assert that it was the player’s choice given the circumstances. Btw, the ones doing this are very adept at presenting the circumstances in a way that staying is not an option. The system has always been slanted in favor of the schools. The NCAA has made sure of that.

Agree.  I remember reading a article around 2012 or 2013 referring to the language used.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@NYCDAD @adbono d1baseball has a interesting article pertaining to the new norm and limiting fall roster sizes to 45.  It is behind the paywall so I need to respect their protocols.

What they basically have stated is any school can be a potential feeder to the top 20 - 40 schools.

When I get a chance, I will try to summarize in a more coherent way

Thanks, I have an account and read it.

@baseballhs posted:

Again, I don’t know how you can speak so emphatically about this.  I know for a fact that happened to multiple people on our team. My sons roommate will be surprised to know it’s not happening after he was told point blank that they wanted his scholarship back to get someone from the portal and he should leave. His mom, who was crying as she moved him out of the house and tried to find some one to take over his lease, will also be surprised.  I know for sure about 7 players on our team that this happened to….

I realize your son may not be doing this with his team, but we have lots of friends currently playing at different schools all over the country. It IS happening.

Of course  there are lots of factors playing into this. Portal. longer eligibility (we just took a kid who graduated 3 years before my son and they are both Juniors (eyeroll)), coaching changes,  and coach success pulling experienced players  from the portal instead of developing the ones they have, short draft in 20, and shorter draft now.  I make myself very educated about the current state because we are living it.

I did not say I doubted what you are saying.

I believe a lot of these issues are regional. AL just mentioned B12.

You cannot go by the portal without seeing the info on players. Only coaches can see that. There are lots of factors involved in what's going on.

I am sorry that this is happening in your son's program.

FWIW, son is a volunteer assistant he does not make HC decisions. He does not recruit. His job is to make young pitchers better. I don't know if he would want to work under a coach that keeps restocking every season instead of rebuilding.

@nycdad @adbono @tpm @baseballhs

Now you understand why we don't pull fall rosters, commit data.

As for the transfer portal data, as per @TPM there are stories within stories.

An easy way to know what schools are yanking scholarships and offers is to look into the announcements on social media. Whenever you see a player say “after much thought and consideration, and talking to my family, I have decided to reopen my recruiting” that player just had his scholarship or offer taken away. You can then go to that players Twitter page and find out where he was originally committed. And that will be a school that is playing this game. It’s most prevalent at the most competitive D1 schools. So it’s going on in the SEC (notable exceptions being Florida, Tennessee & Vanderbilt), the Big12 (notable exceptions being Oklahoma and cellar dwellers), the ACC, and other competitive conferences as well. Basically anyplace where college baseball is big business it’s likely happening to some degree. It’s less likely to be occurring at lesser D1 conferences.

@adbono posted:

An easy way to know what schools are yanking scholarships and offers is to look into the announcements on social media. Whenever you see a player say “after much thought and consideration, and talking to my family, I have decided to reopen my recruiting” that player just had his scholarship or offer taken away. You can then go to that players Twitter page and find out where he was originally committed. And that will be a school that is playing this game. It’s most prevalent at the most competitive D1 schools. So it’s going on in the SEC (notable exceptions being Florida, Tennessee & Vanderbilt), the Big12 (notable exceptions being Oklahoma and cellar dwellers), the ACC, and other competitive conferences as well. Basically anyplace where college baseball is big business it’s likely happening to some degree. It’s less likely to be occurring at lesser D1 conferences.

@adbono  this doesn't bode well

At what point does the player and his family retain the services of an advisor or legal counsel.

Bob

This is the most important thread about the current state of college baseball I’ve seen on HSBBW. Thank you @CollegebaseballInsights for starting us all with facts. I think it’s the only way to attack this issue and then when you add in all the years of experience across so many levels of baseball on this thread…Wow. A lot of my son’s friends have changed schools for various reasons: changes in coaching staff (move from D1 to D3), NIL (move from ACC to SEC) and “they had the talk with their coach”…to many too name but most would be considered a move down. College baseball was always a business but now, between the NIL and the transfer portal, the blinders are off.

PT;

It is time to change my Major to PreLaw.

Bob

It's not just the transfer portal, NLIs and the extra years of eligibility. The latest MLB draft rules factor in as well. Sure, there are just 20 rounds now, but pro organizations going after non-drafted players with extra money to spend is a thing. Hours after word got out my 2022's son's coach left, an incoming player received 3 calls from pro organizations.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@adbono So if I understand, the signed NLI was as good as the paper it was written on.  And if he balked, they would make his life miserable, if he calls them out, then he would be blacklisted.

This seems illegal

This subject is all over Twitter today. Including a couple of programs being called out publicly. One in particular that I have mentioned before as being a habitual offender. Lots of public outcry calling for NCAA to “fix this problem.” Don’t hold your breath waiting for that!

@adbono posted:

This subject is all over Twitter today. Including a couple of programs being called out publicly. One in particular that I have mentioned before as being a habitual offender. Lots of public outcry calling for NCAA to “fix this problem.” Don’t hold your breath waiting for that!

Saw this...publicizing the offenders probably won't move the needle with the NCAA, but at least it might help educate the kids in HS.

@K9 posted:

Saw this...publicizing the offenders probably won't move the needle with the NCAA, but at least it might help educate the kids in HS.

I can't see this being a NCAA issue, this was bound to happen more cheeks than seats.

It is an NCAA issue. If they are going to “govern” they need more oversight. They also need to do more research ( like they are now, in regards to eliminating the one time portion of the transfer rule). They made a mistake in giving an extra year for COVID. It was short sighted.  I think they also need to conduct exit interviews for kids entering the portal to determine if coaches are actually following the rules. I’m surprised to see what was posted on twitter, but it needs to be said.

MLB moving the draft from early June to late July is also having an effect by leaving rosters up in the air longer. Of course MLB doesn't care about collegiate players getting cut 3 weeks before classes start, but the NCAA should care and push for it to be moved back.

@auberon posted:

MLB moving the draft from early June to late July is also having an effect by leaving rosters up in the air longer. Of course MLB doesn't care about collegiate players getting cut 3 weeks before classes start, but the NCAA should care and push for it to be moved back.

@auberon The MLB has its own strategic objectives, IMHO, I don't foresee the tail can wag the MLB dog

Below is a quick tweet posted.  It does not convey all the nuances, but simple high level understanding

MLB changes had direct impacted the roster management of schools

MLB Collegiate league pushed back Draft July 17

MLB Eliminate 40 minor league team

MLB shorten draft from 40 to 20

@baseballhs posted:

It is an NCAA issue. If they are going to “govern” they need more oversight. They also need to do more research ( like they are now, in regards to eliminating the one time portion of the transfer rule). They made a mistake in giving an extra year for COVID. It was short sighted.  I think they also need to conduct exit interviews for kids entering the portal to determine if coaches are actually following the rules. I’m surprised to see what was posted on twitter, but it needs to be said.

Standing on its own the  one time transfer rule is not the issue, the addition of NIL and how it is being governed at the state level has given those organizations the opportunity to create their own model.

IMHO, the NCAA saw that handwriting on the wall (9-0) decision by SCOTUS (Kavanaugh laid the groundwork for more deregulation)

House v NCAA which is schedule for Sept 2024, may have even deeper impact.

With respects to given student athletes another year, IMHO it was a no brainer, as for how can you charge me for something that I didn't use.

IMHO, the student would have filed a class action suit to get back their time.

Everybody is mad, about something with this process.

It is a new world. Each individual needs to figure out how they will navigate.

sometimes we have to take the “crooked with the straight”

August Wilson - Fences

@auberon posted:

MLB moving the draft from early June to late July is also having an effect by leaving rosters up in the air longer. Of course MLB doesn't care about collegiate players getting cut 3 weeks before classes start, but the NCAA should care and push for it to be moved back.

College coaches that are fair and know what they are doing have this discussion at exit meetings that are in JUNE. All draft eligible players discuss options with coaching staff. (Where are players getting cut 3 weeks before classes? Do commits understand if they haven't progressed since they committed that the opportunity may be there).   

Coaches will always welcome back those that made significant impacts.    They DO NOT have to promise anything to those that have graduated but still have eligibility. I am one that thinks that giving back the lost covid year and allowing a 1 year transfer at the same time caused the issue and will readjust itself. 

MLB has NOTHING to do with the NCAA which is a powerfull organization which IMO needs to do a reset.  Programs need to fully fund their scholarships, this is where NIL can be a positive asset.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

Standing on its own the  one time transfer rule is not the issue, the addition of NIL and how it is being governed at the state level has given those organizations the opportunity to create their own model.

IMHO, the NCAA saw that handwriting on the wall (9-0) decision by SCOTUS (Kavanaugh laid the groundwork for more deregulation)

House v NCAA which is schedule for Sept 2024, may have even deeper impact.

With respects to given student athletes another year, IMHO it was a no brainer, as for how can you charge me for something that I didn't use.

IMHO, the student would have filed a class action suit to get back their time.

Everybody is mad, about something with this process.

It is a new world. Each individual needs to figure out how they will navigate.

sometimes we have to take the “crooked with the straight”

August Wilson - Fences

  As stated many times, the current situation in college baseball has been created by three primary factors. The extra years of Covid eligibility, the transfer portal, and the reduction of the MLB draft from 40 to 20 rounds. These things are what created the mess. The addition of NLI has made the mess worse. I think everyone can agree on all of that.
  But here is where I see the disconnect. People are still treating the recruiting process the same way they did before all of this happened. Reality is not being accepted and plans are not being changed as they should be. 8th graders are still committing to D1 P5s. This makes no sense. Everyone is hanging onto the D1 dream. This makes no sense. Kids are accepting D1 walk on offers over scholly offers to JuCo, NAIA, and D2. This makes no sense.
  So people can complain all they want about the current model of NCAA baseball being broken. And it is. But to recognize that and not change your course of action because of it is…… just plain stupid. Guys that had a borderline shot at D1 in 2019 don’t have a realistic chance right now. But most are still going for it. And that’s a big reason that recruiting classes are so inflated. And a big reason the transfer portal is overflowing. Kids and parents are making bad decisions. There are about 3000 players currently in the transfer portal. I saw a quote from a D1 coach saying that over 2000 may never find a new place to play. I saw another D1 coach admit that they miss on about 50% of their incoming recruits.
  So what is my point? It is this. The thinking of the players (parents) that are feeding the system is just as broken as the system. Borderline D1 guys need to not bet on themselves. The conditions are all wrong for that. The odds are too stacked against it working out.  In today’s world if MLB scouts are following you in HS you have D1 talent. If they aren’t, you don’t. At least not yet. Go somewhere that you can get on the field and prove yourself. It doesn’t matter where it is. If you kill it you may have a chance to transfer up. If that option never develops then you are probably at the right level anyway.

Moving the draft was a no brainer. So was shortening the draft rounds and increasing FA. Not one team needed 5 levels.  I applaud giving milb players free housing and better pay.

Even a lot of the guys who had MLB scouts following them, visiting their homes, and who turned down the opportunity to be drafted, are not getting a shot at top programs.  Unfortunately, kids now (who prioritize baseball) need to plan to transfer at some point.  I think VERY few will spend 4 years at one school.

I read the twitter thread.  On D1baseball, there is an article that proposes having roster limits in the fall as well as the spring.  I couldn't read it because I don't subscribe, but that seems like an easy way that the NCAA could put a bit more control on the situation.  If a coach has recruited properly, he shouldn't need to have 45 players in the fall competing to be one of the 35; he should be able have faith that out of his 35 recruits he will have the 20 he needs to play.

Of course, that wouldn't stop them cutting players in August.  But it might make coaches and families think a bit more about who is going to be there at the start of the fall.

@baseballhs posted:

Even a lot of the guys who had MLB scouts following them, visiting their homes, and who turned down the opportunity to be drafted, are not getting a shot at top programs.  Unfortunately, kids now (who prioritize baseball) need to plan to transfer at some point.  I think VERY few will spend 4 years at one school.

I know that what you are saying is true about some top prospects not getting a shot at top programs. But there is a good chance that most will. What I’m saying is that if you aren’t a top prospect you have no business being at a top program to begin with.

You do not have to be a top HS prospect to have a scout follow you. But not having a better college option or lack of one to negotiate your draft position can hurt.

@adbono

You make great points about commits making wrong decisions. In some states walking onto a state D1 program is affordable. They want the D1 experience and you can't talk them or their folks out of it. They will either  move down, drop out but might try to get back up again. Agree that many guys have killed it in Mid D1 programs and now moving up to better programs for better $$$ in the draft. And it doesn't matter what round anymore. Unfortunetly this will knock a player off a team. Players having to drop down has  been happening since my son was in college. 

While we see players not doing well, others thrive. It's all about the coaching staff at this point. From what I hear and read about going in a specific region, not good. But the bottom line is the better players will always want to play for a winning team. Gone are the days that the player wanted to try to make the program better because it is "what can you do for me today".

Dropping 20 rounds in the draft is not causing the issue. Most of these players were not top prospects but rather the guys who made up the team for the top prospects and HS players who didn't have better college options.

As CBI mentioned, individual state laws dictate what programs can and cannot do with NLI. NCAA giving no direction messed that one up. This is not coaches faults. It's all up to the collectives. Yes, kids are transfering for NIL opportunities.

Here is another issue.  Our kids are used to a certain lifestyle. They come from homes where they have their own rooms, own bathrooms. Then they go tour a programs facility where they have to share and it's not as desirable as the P5 they visited last week where you have your own room and bathroom. Or the clubhouse is amazing. Programs need to put $$ into facilities. Their are mid D1 programs that have terrific baseball facilities. They draw some of the better players into their programs. I will give you an example, Southern Miss.

This is happening everywhere, not just for athletes. Universities are competing by offering better lifestyles, better food in the cafeteria, better gyms to workout, etc.

I lived in a college dorm where the bathroom was down the hall. How did I ever survive that !?!?

JMO

Playing college baseball is similar to gambling in Las Vegas. The house (school) is going to win the majority of the time. But like gamblers in Vegas, there are too many HS baseball players (and parents) that think they can bet the house and beat the odds. And it makes for a great story when it happens. But it hardly ever does. Especially now.

@adbono posted:

Playing college baseball is similar to gambling in Las Vegas. The house (school) is going to win the majority of the time. But like gamblers in Vegas, there are too many HS baseball players (and parents) that think they can bet the house and beat the odds. And it makes for a great story when it happens. But it hardly ever does. Especially now.

@adbono  I agree. everybody here has simply stated, do your homework.  The world has changed.

Check your homework again.

Be prepared for a change after you've done your due diligence.

Need to be able to pivot quickly.  Don't be too emotional.

Again the world has changed

Every student/parent needs to read "Who moved my cheese"

The whole world needs to read “Who Moved My Cheese?”

@TPM posted:

College coaches that are fair and know what they are doing have this discussion at exit meetings that are in JUNE. All draft eligible players discuss options with coaching staff. (Where are players getting cut 3 weeks before classes? Do commits understand if they haven't progressed since they committed that the opportunity may be there).   

Coaches will always welcome back those that made significant impacts.    They DO NOT have to promise anything to those that have graduated but still have eligibility. I am one that thinks that giving back the lost covid year and allowing a 1 year transfer at the same time caused the issue and will readjust itself.

MLB has NOTHING to do with the NCAA which is a powerfull organization which IMO needs to do a reset.  Programs need to fully fund their scholarships, this is where NIL can be a positive asset.

Sure that's the ideal, but the reality is more and more coaches are waiting to see who they lose in the draft and who they pick up from the portal. Texas Tech, Texas A&M, etc.

MLB may have nothing to do with the NCAA, but MLB definitely cares about PR and their antitrust exemption that's being investigated by the Senate Judiciary Committee. All the NCAA would have to do is suggest they may have information the Senators would be interested in to get MLB to the table.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

...Again the world has changed...

And because the world has changed what happened before 2020 may not be relevant now.  We researched my 2020's school before he committed and found that they had very few transfers in, maybe one every other year.  Before his freshman season a baseball publication said of his school "they let their players develop rather than rely on transfers."  Fast forward two years and they dismissed all of the position players from the 2020 class and are bringing in 6 transfers.  (Luckily my son landed on his feet in a great situation, but some of his buddies are still scrambling.)

@auberon posted:

Sure that's the ideal, but the reality is more and more coaches are waiting to see who they lose in the draft and who they pick up from the portal. Texas Tech, Texas A&M, etc.

MLB may have nothing to do with the NCAA, but MLB definitely cares about PR and their antitrust exemption that's being investigated by the Senate Judiciary Committee. All the NCAA would have to do is suggest they may have information the Senators would be interested in to get MLB to the table.

First you named 3 Texas programs. You are from CA? Does this happen out there too? 

CBI gives great advice. Do your homework, check it again, maybe again. Understand once your son commits he is out of the market.

The world as we know it has definetly changed.

As a side note, I know of 2 ACC programs that fired their baseball staff. Remember that alumni hold the power. If they are not happy they want change. They demand it because they give the $$$$. What's the best way to achieve that, fire your coaches. I am assuming that quite a few coaches had a sit down with their AD.

And I believe this is why we see what's happening.

JMO

@K9 posted:

And because the world has changed what happened before 2020 may not be relevant now.  We researched my 2020's school before he committed and found that they had very few transfers in, maybe one every other year.  Before his freshman season a baseball publication said of his school "they let their players develop rather than rely on transfers."  Fast forward two years and they dismissed all of the position players from the 2020 class and are bringing in 6 transfers.  (Luckily my son landed on his feet in a great situation, but some of his buddies are still scrambling.)

That's good.

Hopefully you are aware, that same research that your son and you did can be done in minutes, going back to 2017

https://collegebaseballinsight...nover-insights-free/

@TPM posted:

First you named 3 Texas programs. You are from CA? Does this happen out there too?

CBI gives great advice. Do your homework, check it again, maybe again. Understand once your son commits he is out of the market.

The world as we know it has definetly changed.

As a side note, I know of 2 ACC programs that fired their baseball staff. Remember that alumni hold the power. If they are not happy they want change. They demand it because they give the $$$$. What's the best way to achieve that, fire your coaches. I am assuming that quite a few coaches had a sit down with their AD.

And I believe this is why we see what's happening.

JMO

@TPM Agree, the D1 had a lot of changes.  Still waiting for 4 programs to name their coaches. Very messy

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

That's good.

Hopefully you are aware, that same research that your son and you did can be done in minutes, going back to 2017

https://collegebaseballinsight...nover-insights-free/

Of course but there wasn’t the COVID year or the transfer portal or the reduced draft. The research we did was irrelevant.

@baseballhs posted:

Of course but there wasn’t the COVID year or the transfer portal or the reduced draft. The research we did was irrelevant.

100%.  A lot of the current players affected right now were not privy to all the changes that resulted from COVID and NCAA changes. What's going on now for the most part isn't families not adjusting to the times, that's for the 23s, 24s, 25s, etc.  Obviously I see this through some parent tinted glasses , and yes there are unrealistic families out there......But, the incoming freshmen (think 6) cut from TT, did all of them not develop enough to play there?

When my 22 committed, things were drastically different than now, and we didn't have a crystal ball. Yes you could make some educated guesses and I think he'll be ok and even if it doesn't work out at his current school he'll land on his feet.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

That's good.

Hopefully you are aware, that same research that your son and you did can be done in minutes, going back to 2017

https://collegebaseballinsight...nover-insights-free/

Actually, it is all relevant and was predictable once the lockdown occurred.

If you go from A to Z without review the incremental events, then relevance might be hard to see.

Each year post covid has a different effect on roster management

2021 - Expanded Roster size and MLB Draft 20 rounds

-

These 2 features were designed early 2021, it forced a serious reconciliation of the data as for the roster data in totality is poor.

From a business perspective, it was definitely understood with expanded roster the schools would increase their roster size and as they draw down each year, they would get the best fit.

https://keepplayingbaseball.org/the-growing-influence-of-the-juco-pipeline/

The dots were connect

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

That's good.

Hopefully you are aware, that same research that your son and you did can be done in minutes, going back to 2017

https://collegebaseballinsight...nover-insights-free/

Yes, we signed up for the site.

@K9 posted:

Yes, we signed up for the site.

Thank you for your support.

We need some help explaining this new world, people on twitter are interesting

I jumped on this board when my 2024 was in 8th grade. He's a rising junior now.  The college baseball recruiting scene has changed so much since I came on here .The information I've learned here has helped us to do our research, be realistic about the changing college baseball landscape, open our eyes to all the "business" of college baseball and how to be prepared to pivot on a moment's notice.   I know that a lot of kids aren't so lucky to be armed with the right information to make the best decisions and, some families/kids, just don't care. 

But, reading this thread, and hearing stories from friends and family throughout our baseball community, it makes me sad for so many young men that this is currently happening to. I know of 3 kids personally that are 2023s and 2024s that have been told to "decommit" and look elsewhere.  I know of another kid - 2022 - that got the call last week that he didn't have a spot on the team this fall.  I know of numerous other kids (2023s and 2024s), including my son, who were being heavily recruited over the past few months and now radio silence - travel coaches told the kids the colleges informed them they were focusing on portal transfers and current roster management and not recruiting 2023s and 2024s as much right now.

That is the world we live in though - constant change - whatever it may be...But as someone stated about, you have to be able to overcome, adapt and learn the new way with college baseball.  I just hope that we've done our research well and that my son will get to stay in one place for 4 years.  For us, the baseball aspect is an important part of college, but the college education and experience is the most important.

Last thing I will say though is - yanking kids around and taking away scholarships just because a coach over committed roster spots, isn't cool! Just don't do it in the first place!

@BaseballMOM05 posted:

I jumped on this board when my 2024 was in 8th grade. He's a rising junior now.  The college baseball recruiting scene has changed so much since I came on here .The information I've learned here has helped us to do our research, be realistic about the changing college baseball landscape, open our eyes to all the "business" of college baseball and how to be prepared to pivot on a moment's notice.   I know that a lot of kids aren't so lucky to be armed with the right information to make the best decisions and, some families/kids, just don't care.

But, reading this thread, and hearing stories from friends and family throughout our baseball community, it makes me sad for so many young men that this is currently happening to. I know of 3 kids personally that are 2023s and 2024s that have been told to "decommit" and look elsewhere.  I know of another kid - 2022 - that got the call last week that he didn't have a spot on the team this fall.  I know of numerous other kids (2023s and 2024s), including my son, who were being heavily recruited over the past few months and now radio silence - travel coaches told the kids the colleges informed them they were focusing on portal transfers and current roster management and not recruiting 2023s and 2024s as much right now.

That is the world we live in though - constant change - whatever it may be...But as someone stated about, you have to be able to overcome, adapt and learn the new way with college baseball.  I just hope that we've done our research well and that my son will get to stay in one place for 4 years.  For us, the baseball aspect is an important part of college, but the college education and experience is the most important.

Last thing I will say though is - yanking kids around and taking away scholarships just because a coach over committed roster spots, isn't cool! Just don't do it in the first place!

I see that you are in North Carolina. Which is further evidence that this is a national issue and not a regional one.

Baseballmom

What type of Summer team does your son play on? Do you have a College near? Has a pro scout evaluated your son? Be concerned with your son. There are reasons for each case.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Baseballmom

What type of Summer team does your son play on? Do you have a College near? Has a pro scout evaluated your son? Be concerned with your son. There are reasons for each case.

Bob

Hi! My son plays on a top National showcase team.  He has been evaluated by people in very knowledgeable positions - for example his pitching coach (been his coach for 4 years) was a first round draft and played for the Texas Rangers and a former ACC college pitching coach.  There have been others on his baseball journey that have played at all levels of baseball (college to MLB) that have provided honest evaluations of his talent and projectability.  I'm not worried about that.

Would you mind clarifying what "be concerned with your son" means? 

You mentioned other players having their scholarships removed. Every player will have a different future and how they prepare is a personal. Colleges are also searching for solutions.
Form a small group to include your son and his coach. Set up goals and a direction to a College which will match the goals.
As many others have said, it is a competitive business.  
Have you read “the Cloudburst Nine”. The story of the Navy Baseball team with Ted Williams in Chapel Hill, NC
Bob

I also have a 2024 and share the sentaments offered by BaseballMOM05.  My son has been having arranged calls with recruiting coaches for the past 18 months.  Yanking kids around appears to be normal behavior in the today's recruting process (new or not - I do not know).  The current system dymnamics force young teenage boys to grow up fast (and become salty and cynical before being old enough to drive a car, much less drink a beer legally).  My son sees a good amount of the Twitter traffic on this subject, along with the private chats he has with his 2023/24 peer group ... I think he is losing trust in adults through it all.

As a parent, I am now encouraging my son to delay his commitment decision timeline until both he and the college baseball coaches have a common, shared and accurate view of his projectability (with reasonable confidence).  Only then will the fit be obvious without overreaching too high of a competition level or without fealing like he has settled on something he is not excited about.  I'm just happy that he can see the recent MLB draft demographics trends for his primary position (LHP) ... 80% drafted LHP/RHP are from 4 Yr Colleges.  2 1/2  years ago, adults were feeding my son the "get drafted out of HS" line ... not exactly what the 40 yr mindset parents want to hear.

With regards to roster turnover analysis, I ty to avoid it; I will brute force my way through school-specific PG/PBR commitment history and college roster history when my son mentions the phrase "just got an offer"  I suspect I'll be getting my CBI subscription on Sep 1 ... I hear CBI offers great customer support :-)

I hope this recruiiting madness comes to end for my son (and me) within the next 12 monts.

PS: sure feel bad for the 21s, 22s, and 23s ... they are much worse off than my kid.

@mjd-dad posted:

I also have a 2024 and share the sentaments offered by BaseballMOM05.  My son has been having arranged calls with recruiting coaches for the past 18 months.  Yanking kids around appears to be normal behavior in the today's recruting process (new or not - I do not know).  The current system dymnamics force young teenage boys to grow up fast (and become salty and cynical before being old enough to drive a car, much less drink a beer legally).  My son sees a good amount of the Twitter traffic on this subject, along with the private chats he has with his 2023/24 peer group ... I think he is losing trust in adults through it all.

As a parent, I am now encouraging my son to delay his commitment decision timeline until both he and the college baseball coaches have a common, shared and accurate view of his projectability (with reasonable confidence).  Only then will the fit be obvious without overreaching too high of a competition level or without fealing like he has settled on something he is not excited about.  I'm just happy that he can see the recent MLB draft demographics trends for his primary position (LHP) ... 80% drafted LHP/RHP are from 4 Yr Colleges.  2 1/2  years ago, adults were feeding my son the "get drafted out of HS" line ... not exactly what the 40 yr mindset parents want to hear.

With regards to roster turnover analysis, I ty to avoid it; I will brute force my way through school-specific PG/PBR commitment history and college roster history when my son mentions the phrase "just got an offer"  I suspect I'll be getting my CBI subscription on Sep 1 ... I hear CBI offers great customer support :-)

I hope this recruiiting madness comes to end for my son (and me) within the next 12 monts.

PS: sure feel bad for the 21s, 22s, and 23s ... they are much worse off than my kid.

Use the KISS Method when doing your research,

As for PG/PGR/etc,  the verbal commits serve 1 purpose, taking you off the market.

IMHO,  the NLI for a students grad class is more concrete, a contract with school and MLB Draft leverage

Its blind spot is transfer portal and JUCO Pipeline (check out the growth)

CBI is self maintaining.  The insights are WYSIWYG.  Your imagination concerning the question you might want to answered. System is up 99.99%

Depending on the level college roster data has some serious challenges.

You can sum this thread up in a couple of sentences.
It’s a really good time to be one of the best players in college baseball.
  It’s a really bad time to be anything less than that.

Adbono;

Who benefits?

Junior College and NAIA.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Adbono;

Who benefits?

Junior College and NAIA.

Bob

Absolutely correct. I think JuCo & D2 gets better players too. And D3 to a lesser extent. There are too many good players compared to available roster spots. So the level of play should go up everywhere.

@adbono posted:

Absolutely correct. I think JuCo & D2 gets better players too. And D3 to a lesser extent. There are too many good players compared to available roster spots. So the level of play should go up everywhere.

IMHO, the JUCO Impact will be more regional.   I don't know if NorthEast will see significant upgrade, as for their are limited number of D1 and D2.

CCCAA will be very interesting,  NWAC ????

Also will help the non p5 colleges

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

IMHO, the JUCO Impact will be more regional.   I don't know if NorthEast will see significant upgrade, as for their are limited number of D1 and D2.

CCCAA will be very interesting,  NWAC ????

Also will help the non p5 colleges

It will help the non P5 D1s as long as they don’t have a guy develop into a dude. If that happens, hello transfer portal and NLI deal!

Hello Jack Parkman revolving door roster, good bye 4 year college experience and brotherhood

@2022NYC posted:

Hello Jack Parkman revolving door roster, good bye 4 year college experience and brotherhood

Excatly! That's what makes me bummed for these kids. I had the BEST time on college playing volleyball and basketball with my teammates for 4 years! A lifetime of memories and friendships. Now it's all business. Umph...

@BaseballMOM05 posted:

Excatly! That's what makes me bummed for these kids. I had the BEST time on college playing volleyball and basketball with my teammates for 4 years! A lifetime of memories and friendships. Now it's all business. Umph...

I think that’s the biggest difference between now and back when some of us played college sports. Baseball is now big business and roster turnover is brutal. And the time demands are unreal. When I played I had the same core group of teammates for 3 years and we had time for a life away from baseball. We were able to get to know each other away from baseball.  And this was at a big time D1 program.   I’m still close with a handful of my teammates. Those kinds of relationships have to be harder to develop today.

But I wonder if that contributes to the dissatisfaction in the summer leagues discussed on the other thread, and to an overall disenchantment with D1 sports?

When a College Coach needs the portal to build team, he is admitting that his previous selections failed his evaluations. Time to plan a new approach to scouting players. What is the cost of College scouting?
Bob

@Consultant posted:

When a College Coach needs the portal to build team, he is admitting that his previous selections failed his evaluations. Time to plan a new approach to scouting players. What is the cost of College scouting?
Bob

Coaches miss - it happens. Unfortunately the new plan to avoid misses has been to replace the miss before they hit 60 credits and find the finished product from the talent developer.

I don't know what the answer is. I would imagine limiting in conference transfers would be a good talking point.

@BaseballMOM05 posted:

Excatly! That's what makes me bummed for these kids. I had the BEST time on college playing volleyball and basketball with my teammates for 4 years! A lifetime of memories and friendships. Now it's all business. Umph...

My son is heading into his junior year at the same DI mid-major.  His freshman year in the dorms, he lived with one of the starting freshman pitchers (my son was the starting catcher.) He is heading into year 2 of living in the same house with 5 other teammates.  Not a single one went into the transfer portal.  They love their school and living together (maybe a few disagreements here and there)    My point being is that we are so focused on the majority of the kids in the transfer portal and the ones hopping from one school to the next that we forget that there are MANY kids who do still have a great experience, got to keep their same scholarships through college and are building relationships that will last long beyond school.  All is not completely lost. 

@baseballmom01 posted:

My son is heading into his junior year at the same DI mid-major.  His freshman year in the dorms, he lived with one of the starting freshman pitchers (my son was the starting catcher.) He is heading into year 2 of living in the same house with 5 other teammates.  Not a single one went into the transfer portal.  They love their school and living together (maybe a few disagreements here and there)    My point being is that we are so focused on the majority of the kids in the transfer portal and the ones hopping from one school to the next that we forget that there are MANY kids who do still have a great experience, got to keep their same scholarships through college and are building relationships that will last long beyond school.  All is not completely lost. 

I think that what you describe is more common than some will admit.

Yes, definetly there are now coaches that keep restocking instead of rebuilding, using the portal. I remember when players in summer called up their coaches while away at camp, and told them they found a guy who is a great catcher (example), next thing you know, team had a new catcher. NCAA put a stop to it by implementing the no transfer to D1 rule.  Problem was many teams APR were in the toilet and athletes not graduating on time.  Then the NCAA began punishing by taking away scholarships.

And let's not forget more than ever players are now leaving programs to go to better programs which in turn means a current player is going to lose their scholarship.

@Consultant posted:

...
Have you read “the Cloudburst Nine”. The story of the Navy Baseball team with Ted Williams in Chapel Hill, NC
Bob

Bob,

Thanks for the recommendation.  Just ordered!

https://www.amazon.com/gp/prod...K23NIPUXRO&psc=1

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:...

Every student/parent needs to read "Who moved my cheese"

@adbono posted:

The whole world needs to read “Who Moved My Cheese?”

Got this one too.  Thanks

https://www.amazon.com/gp/prod...T7DS3ZNK1W&psc=1

@adbono posted:

I think that’s the biggest difference between now and back when some of us played college sports. Baseball is now big business and roster turnover is brutal. And the time demands are unreal. When I played I had the same core group of teammates for 3 years and we had time for a life away from baseball. We were able to get to know each other away from baseball.  And this was at a big time D1 program.   I’m still close with a handful of my teammates. Those kinds of relationships have to be harder to develop today.

Agree.  the whole ecosystem from 8u up has been turned on its head.

@Consultant posted:

When a College Coach needs the portal to build team, he is admitting that his previous selections failed his evaluations. Time to plan a new approach to scouting players. What is the cost of College scouting?
Bob

Those numbers are embedded in their EADA reports.  Problem is they don't split out the by sport

https://ope.ed.gov/athletics/#/

@anotherparent posted:

But I wonder if that contributes to the dissatisfaction in the summer leagues discussed on the other thread, and to an overall disenchantment with D1 sports?

IMHO, I believe it is all connected.

cbi.  is it safe to say that the D1 service academies don't have as much turnover?  thanks

@Dadbelly2023 posted:

cbi.  is it safe to say that the D1 service academies don't have as much turnover?  thanks

Unless you're an All-American and want to go to LSU for big $$.

The portal can be a good thing or a bad thing.  I will speak to our situation at UT.  Last year's starters were almost exclusively recruited out of HS by UT with one being a juco transfer who started part of the season.  I don't know that anyone would expect to lose your entire starting fielding lineup in one draft.  10 guys drafted and 1 ran out of eligibility.  So, we hit the transfer portal and brought in 3 infielders to help fill some of the voids.  But how do you turn them down when they are veteran players who contact you for a chance.  We lost 4 guys to transfer portal and 1 grad transfer which I don't think should be listed on transfer portal because that is not the same.  I do agree with TPM that it is regional and conference wise in some sorts.  I don't really like what LSU has done but I know if I was him I would do the same.  Why should you have to keep guys that you did not recruit?  They may not be what you are wanting in a player or fit your bill plus if you are given $10 million to go get players you might as well get the best.  I hope he wins because if not he might get run out of town.  I also know that schools are not getting rid of starters, or at least most aren't.  If you are helping the program win, they will find a way to keep you.  If you are not helping them win, why would you blame the coach if you have been there 2 years and not contributing.  I know some are going to say they should make you better but we all know most of the time it is not the coach but the player not doing his part or just can't get where he needs to be.

@Dadbelly2023 posted:

cbi.  is it safe to say that the D1 service academies don't have as much turnover?  thanks

Here is a link to some of the CBI dashboards   https://collegebaseballinsights.com/insights/

Some of the content is free, e.g turnover rate,  also  you can drill down on some sample schools (4 for each division)

NCAA-D1 - Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Notre Dame.

@baseballmom01 posted:

My son is heading into his junior year at the same DI mid-major.  His freshman year in the dorms, he lived with one of the starting freshman pitchers (my son was the starting catcher.) He is heading into year 2 of living in the same house with 5 other teammates.  Not a single one went into the transfer portal.  They love their school and living together (maybe a few disagreements here and there)    My point being is that we are so focused on the majority of the kids in the transfer portal and the ones hopping from one school to the next that we forget that there are MANY kids who do still have a great experience, got to keep their same scholarships through college and are building relationships that will last long beyond school.  All is not completely lost. 

As part of this.....There are situations where coaches are already speaking with incoming freshman and increasing their scholarships in the coming years. I'm sure this is happening in older classes as well.

@nycdad posted:

As part of this.....There are situations where coaches are already speaking with incoming freshman and increasing their scholarships in the coming years. I'm sure this is happening in older classes as well.

Happened to my 2019 his junior year.  Was asked to go from 50% as a soph to 0% as a junior, but guaranteed 100% as a senior, and coach noted that there was going to be a 10% tuition increase in his senior year.