How to analysis Roster Turnover 101

And now 19 in the portal to leave this year, and no one going to Eastern Kentucky yet.

Art, that's awesome work.

They had their best season in recent history in 2022.  I know two players there.  One transferred out and one was a starter.   Both have good things to say about the program.  The one that transferred was a walk on who didn't have a lot of options.  He was happy to be part of the team, but the roster number dropping from 40 to 35 got him.  I wonder how many of the transfers fit that mold?  Just trying to add some possible context to the data.   While there are exceptions, coaching changes usually don't work out very well for the current players or commits.   

Agree that this is great information. And while this may surprising to some, it shouldn’t be. This is what is going on in competitive D1 baseball programs.

@d-mac posted:

They had their best season in recent history in 2022.  I know two players there.  One transferred out and one was a starter.   Both have good things to say about the program.  The one that transferred was a walk on who didn't have a lot of options.  He was happy to be part of the team, but the roster number dropping from 40 to 35 got him.  I wonder how many of the transfers fit that mold?  Just trying to add some possible context to the data.   While there are exceptions, coaching changes usually don't work out very well for the current players or commits.  

Great points.  The data just provides an opening toward analysis and context that you added.

@adbono posted:

Agree that this is great information. And while this may surprising to some, it shouldn’t be. This is what is going on in competitive D1 baseball programs.

@abono  I agree, when shown visually people normally get the ah ha moment.

IMHO,  those that have been in the trenches and have some battle scars have been discussing this issue throughout the community.

New guest that are trying to make heads and tails of the recruiting process normally  have to do a significant amount of research in order to assume what may or may not be happening.

Fortunately, we can now cut through the b.s. and start talking apples to apples.

Yes, definitely happening.  Many are being told point blank that they need their scholarship so they can get guys from the portal.  This happened to a LOT of kids.  We even had a 7th round pick who called coach to talk through coming back or going and was told his scholarship had already been given away.  Seriously.

@baseballhs posted:

Yes, definitely happening.  Many are being told point blank that they need their scholarship so they can get guys from the portal.  This happened to a LOT of kids.  We even had a 7th round pick who called coach to talk through coming back or going and was told his scholarship had already been given away.  Seriously.

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I do know that players in the portal are being offered NIL opportunities which could cover tuition as well as 5th year players. There are articles out about how LSU is getting top talent through NIL opportunities.

As far as draft picks, coaches usually have prior discussions about the seriousness of the players intent. It's either you do or you don't. Players should not be held hostage and neither should coaches. When son was recruited he was told point blank, we will give you a scholarship for 3 years, if you are not drafted you pay your last year or go sign FA. I know of a player who went into portal got picked up by a great program, didn't get drafted because he didn't have the #s to get a pick and signed FA. So what was the true intent of the player in the first place? He really wanted to go pro?

I think a big problem was created when the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility. No coach and no program is obligated to keep any player unless they made an impact to the program.

There is blame to go around but the coach bashing is not necessary. Unless someone has sat in the room with the coach and player, don't believe everything you here.

JMO

@baseballhs posted:

Yes, definitely happening.  Many are being told point blank that they need their scholarship so they can get guys from the portal.  This happened to a LOT of kids.  We even had a 7th round pick who called coach to talk through coming back or going and was told his scholarship had already been given away.  Seriously.

With the exception of a few, the bonuses were close to slot value . Note, the player that received low bonuses didn't have leverage.

@TPM posted:

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I do know that players in the portal are being offered NIL opportunities which could cover tuition as well as 5th year players. There are articles out about how LSU is getting top talent through NIL opportunities.

As far as draft picks, coaches usually have prior discussions about the seriousness of the players intent. It's either you do or you don't. Players should not be held hostage and neither should coaches. When son was recruited he was told point blank, we will give you a scholarship for 3 years, if you are not drafted you pay your last year or go sign FA. I know of a player who went into portal got picked up by a great program, didn't get drafted because he didn't have the #s to get a pick and signed FA. So what was the true intent of the player in the first place? He really wanted to go pro.

I think a big problem was created when the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility. No coach and no program is obligated to keep any player unless they made an impact to the program.

There is blame to go around but the coach bashing is not necessary. Unless someone sat in the room with the coach and player, don't believe everything you here.

JMO

Came directly from the player.

@TPM posted:

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I’m not sure how you can say this, just going alphabetically, there is hardly a team without 10 guys in the portal…regardless of where they are in the country.

@TPM posted:

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I do know that players in the portal are being offered NIL opportunities which could cover tuition as well as 5th year players. There are articles out about how LSU is getting top talent through NIL opportunities.

As far as draft picks, coaches usually have prior discussions about the seriousness of the players intent. It's either you do or you don't. Players should not be held hostage and neither should coaches. When son was recruited he was told point blank, we will give you a scholarship for 3 years, if you are not drafted you pay your last year or go sign FA. I know of a player who went into portal got picked up by a great program, didn't get drafted because he didn't have the #s to get a pick and signed FA. So what was the true intent of the player in the first place? He really wanted to go pro.

I think a big problem was created when the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility. No coach and no program is obligated to keep any player unless they made an impact to the program.

There is blame to go around but the coach bashing is not necessary. Unless someone sat in the room with the coach and player, don't believe everything you here.

JMO

IMHO, there is no blame, each stakeholder (governing bodies (e.g. NCAA), schools, coach, students) had to review the cancellation based on their objectives.

Should a student lose eligibility due to circumstances that are out of their control?

I agree, with your assessment that it is a case by case situation.

Maybe there will be an independent survey (anonymous) done by each governing body that would identify the various outcomes.

@baseballhs posted:

I’m not sure how you can say this, just going alphabetically, there is hardly a team without 10 guys in the portal…regardless of where they are in the country.

@baseballhs IMHO there are a couple of events that we would need to look at  regional, conference and school level.

Note, the challenge with the portal is that is doesn't contain position and grad class.  I didn't have time to add that those tags to this year's data

That being said:

The easy events are:

1. HC Changes (to date 42 changes)  - school level  (we can ignore some of the latest changes)
2. Decrease roster size (40 to 35) -  school level

The draft and free agent signing are a little bit more nuance.

History of new commits: New joiners (high school, JUCO pipeline)

Regardless of what is happening now, the question is how does the coach normally manage his roster?  What are the fact patterns?

I don't know if conclusions can be drawn based on previous history, but it might a interesting research project.

IMHO,  next year's spring roster will shed some of the light on this, but will also need some unstructured data, e.g survey to provide the appropriated context.

CBI is correct. There are circumstances, he mentioned, that have to be considered to make a judgment on what's going on because we don't know the status of the player.

Did the coach legitimately take away their scholarship? Some here seem to think that is what's happening, it's not.

Question: Who benefits? The School, Coaches, Player, Parent, the Pro Scout.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Question: Who benefits? The School, Coaches, Player, Parent, the Pro Scout.

Bob

The team. I believe that's every coaches ultimate goal.

JMO

Or should be...

Baseballhs is 100% correct on this issue. And it isn’t limited to any particular region of the country.

@TPM posted:

Did the coach legitimately take away their scholarship? Some here seem to think that is what's happening, it's not.

Again, I don’t know how you can speak so emphatically about this.  I know for a fact that happened to multiple people on our team. My sons roommate will be surprised to know it’s not happening after he was told point blank that they wanted his scholarship back to get someone from the portal and he should leave. His mom, who was crying as she moved him out of the house and tried to find some one to take over his lease, will also be surprised.  I know for sure about 7 players on our team that this happened to….

I realize your son may not be doing this with his team, but we have lots of friends currently playing at different schools all over the country. It IS happening.

Of course  there are lots of factors playing into this. Portal. longer eligibility (we just took a kid who graduated 3 years before my son and they are both Juniors (eyeroll)), coaching changes,  and coach success pulling experienced players  from the portal instead of developing the ones they have, short draft in 20, and shorter draft now.  I make myself very educated about the current state because we are living it.