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It is an NCAA issue. If they are going to “govern” they need more oversight. They also need to do more research ( like they are now, in regards to eliminating the one time portion of the transfer rule). They made a mistake in giving an extra year for COVID. It was short sighted.  I think they also need to conduct exit interviews for kids entering the portal to determine if coaches are actually following the rules. I’m surprised to see what was posted on twitter, but it needs to be said.

@auberon posted:

MLB moving the draft from early June to late July is also having an effect by leaving rosters up in the air longer. Of course MLB doesn't care about collegiate players getting cut 3 weeks before classes start, but the NCAA should care and push for it to be moved back.

@auberon The MLB has its own strategic objectives, IMHO, I don't foresee the tail can wag the MLB dog

Below is a quick tweet posted.  It does not convey all the nuances, but simple high level understanding

MLB changes had direct impacted the roster management of schools

1⃣ MLB Collegiate league 👉pushed back Draft July 17

2⃣ MLB Eliminate 40 minor league team

3⃣ MLB shorten draft from 40 📉to 20

@baseballhs posted:

It is an NCAA issue. If they are going to “govern” they need more oversight. They also need to do more research ( like they are now, in regards to eliminating the one time portion of the transfer rule). They made a mistake in giving an extra year for COVID. It was short sighted.  I think they also need to conduct exit interviews for kids entering the portal to determine if coaches are actually following the rules. I’m surprised to see what was posted on twitter, but it needs to be said.

Standing on its own the  one time transfer rule is not the issue, the addition of NIL and how it is being governed at the state level has given those organizations the opportunity to create their own model.

IMHO, the NCAA saw that handwriting on the wall (9-0) decision by SCOTUS (Kavanaugh laid the groundwork for more deregulation)

House v NCAA which is schedule for Sept 2024, may have even deeper impact.

With respects to given student athletes another year, IMHO it was a no brainer, as for how can you charge me for something that I didn't use.

IMHO, the student would have filed a class action suit to get back their time.

Everybody is mad, about something with this process.

It is a new world. Each individual needs to figure out how they will navigate.

sometimes we have to take the “crooked with the straight”

August Wilson - Fences

@auberon posted:

MLB moving the draft from early June to late July is also having an effect by leaving rosters up in the air longer. Of course MLB doesn't care about collegiate players getting cut 3 weeks before classes start, but the NCAA should care and push for it to be moved back.

College coaches that are fair and know what they are doing have this discussion at exit meetings that are in JUNE. All draft eligible players discuss options with coaching staff. (Where are players getting cut 3 weeks before classes? Do commits understand if they haven't progressed since they committed that the opportunity may be there).   

Coaches will always welcome back those that made significant impacts.    They DO NOT have to promise anything to those that have graduated but still have eligibility. I am one that thinks that giving back the lost covid year and allowing a 1 year transfer at the same time caused the issue and will readjust itself. 

MLB has NOTHING to do with the NCAA which is a powerfull organization which IMO needs to do a reset.  Programs need to fully fund their scholarships, this is where NIL can be a positive asset.

Standing on its own the  one time transfer rule is not the issue, the addition of NIL and how it is being governed at the state level has given those organizations the opportunity to create their own model.

IMHO, the NCAA saw that handwriting on the wall (9-0) decision by SCOTUS (Kavanaugh laid the groundwork for more deregulation)

House v NCAA which is schedule for Sept 2024, may have even deeper impact.

With respects to given student athletes another year, IMHO it was a no brainer, as for how can you charge me for something that I didn't use.

IMHO, the student would have filed a class action suit to get back their time.

Everybody is mad, about something with this process.

It is a new world. Each individual needs to figure out how they will navigate.

sometimes we have to take the “crooked with the straight”

August Wilson - Fences

  As stated many times, the current situation in college baseball has been created by three primary factors. The extra years of Covid eligibility, the transfer portal, and the reduction of the MLB draft from 40 to 20 rounds. These things are what created the mess. The addition of NLI has made the mess worse. I think everyone can agree on all of that.
  But here is where I see the disconnect. People are still treating the recruiting process the same way they did before all of this happened. Reality is not being accepted and plans are not being changed as they should be. 8th graders are still committing to D1 P5s. This makes no sense. Everyone is hanging onto the D1 dream. This makes no sense. Kids are accepting D1 walk on offers over scholly offers to JuCo, NAIA, and D2. This makes no sense.
  So people can complain all they want about the current model of NCAA baseball being broken. And it is. But to recognize that and not change your course of action because of it is…… just plain stupid. Guys that had a borderline shot at D1 in 2019 don’t have a realistic chance right now. But most are still going for it. And that’s a big reason that recruiting classes are so inflated. And a big reason the transfer portal is overflowing. Kids and parents are making bad decisions. There are about 3000 players currently in the transfer portal. I saw a quote from a D1 coach saying that over 2000 may never find a new place to play. I saw another D1 coach admit that they miss on about 50% of their incoming recruits.
  So what is my point? It is this. The thinking of the players (parents) that are feeding the system is just as broken as the system. Borderline D1 guys need to not bet on themselves. The conditions are all wrong for that. The odds are too stacked against it working out.  In today’s world if MLB scouts are following you in HS you have D1 talent. If they aren’t, you don’t. At least not yet. Go somewhere that you can get on the field and prove yourself. It doesn’t matter where it is. If you kill it you may have a chance to transfer up. If that option never develops then you are probably at the right level anyway.

I read the twitter thread.  On D1baseball, there is an article that proposes having roster limits in the fall as well as the spring.  I couldn't read it because I don't subscribe, but that seems like an easy way that the NCAA could put a bit more control on the situation.  If a coach has recruited properly, he shouldn't need to have 45 players in the fall competing to be one of the 35; he should be able have faith that out of his 35 recruits he will have the 20 he needs to play.

Of course, that wouldn't stop them cutting players in August.  But it might make coaches and families think a bit more about who is going to be there at the start of the fall.

Last edited by anotherparent
@baseballhs posted:

Even a lot of the guys who had MLB scouts following them, visiting their homes, and who turned down the opportunity to be drafted, are not getting a shot at top programs.  Unfortunately, kids now (who prioritize baseball) need to plan to transfer at some point.  I think VERY few will spend 4 years at one school.

I know that what you are saying is true about some top prospects not getting a shot at top programs. But there is a good chance that most will. What I’m saying is that if you aren’t a top prospect you have no business being at a top program to begin with.

@adbono

You make great points about commits making wrong decisions. In some states walking onto a state D1 program is affordable. They want the D1 experience and you can't talk them or their folks out of it. They will either  move down, drop out but might try to get back up again. Agree that many guys have killed it in Mid D1 programs and now moving up to better programs for better $$$ in the draft. And it doesn't matter what round anymore. Unfortunetly this will knock a player off a team. Players having to drop down has  been happening since my son was in college. 

While we see players not doing well, others thrive. It's all about the coaching staff at this point. From what I hear and read about going in a specific region, not good. But the bottom line is the better players will always want to play for a winning team. Gone are the days that the player wanted to try to make the program better because it is "what can you do for me today".

Dropping 20 rounds in the draft is not causing the issue. Most of these players were not top prospects but rather the guys who made up the team for the top prospects and HS players who didn't have better college options.

As CBI mentioned, individual state laws dictate what programs can and cannot do with NLI. NCAA giving no direction messed that one up. This is not coaches faults. It's all up to the collectives. Yes, kids are transfering for NIL opportunities.

Here is another issue.  Our kids are used to a certain lifestyle. They come from homes where they have their own rooms, own bathrooms. Then they go tour a programs facility where they have to share and it's not as desirable as the P5 they visited last week where you have your own room and bathroom. Or the clubhouse is amazing. Programs need to put $$ into facilities. Their are mid D1 programs that have terrific baseball facilities. They draw some of the better players into their programs. I will give you an example, Southern Miss.

This is happening everywhere, not just for athletes. Universities are competing by offering better lifestyles, better food in the cafeteria, better gyms to workout, etc.

I lived in a college dorm where the bathroom was down the hall. How did I ever survive that !?!?

JMO

Playing college baseball is similar to gambling in Las Vegas. The house (school) is going to win the majority of the time. But like gamblers in Vegas, there are too many HS baseball players (and parents) that think they can bet the house and beat the odds. And it makes for a great story when it happens. But it hardly ever does. Especially now.

@adbono posted:

Playing college baseball is similar to gambling in Las Vegas. The house (school) is going to win the majority of the time. But like gamblers in Vegas, there are too many HS baseball players (and parents) that think they can bet the house and beat the odds. And it makes for a great story when it happens. But it hardly ever does. Especially now.

@adbono  I agree. everybody here has simply stated, do your homework.  The world has changed.

Check your homework again.

Be prepared for a change after you've done your due diligence.

Need to be able to pivot quickly.  Don't be too emotional.

Again the world has changed

Every student/parent needs to read "Who moved my cheese"

@TPM posted:

College coaches that are fair and know what they are doing have this discussion at exit meetings that are in JUNE. All draft eligible players discuss options with coaching staff. (Where are players getting cut 3 weeks before classes? Do commits understand if they haven't progressed since they committed that the opportunity may be there).   

Coaches will always welcome back those that made significant impacts.    They DO NOT have to promise anything to those that have graduated but still have eligibility. I am one that thinks that giving back the lost covid year and allowing a 1 year transfer at the same time caused the issue and will readjust itself.

MLB has NOTHING to do with the NCAA which is a powerfull organization which IMO needs to do a reset.  Programs need to fully fund their scholarships, this is where NIL can be a positive asset.

Sure that's the ideal, but the reality is more and more coaches are waiting to see who they lose in the draft and who they pick up from the portal. Texas Tech, Texas A&M, etc.

MLB may have nothing to do with the NCAA, but MLB definitely cares about PR and their antitrust exemption that's being investigated by the Senate Judiciary Committee. All the NCAA would have to do is suggest they may have information the Senators would be interested in to get MLB to the table.



...Again the world has changed...



And because the world has changed what happened before 2020 may not be relevant now.  We researched my 2020's school before he committed and found that they had very few transfers in, maybe one every other year.  Before his freshman season a baseball publication said of his school "they let their players develop rather than rely on transfers."  Fast forward two years and they dismissed all of the position players from the 2020 class and are bringing in 6 transfers.  (Luckily my son landed on his feet in a great situation, but some of his buddies are still scrambling.)

@auberon posted:

Sure that's the ideal, but the reality is more and more coaches are waiting to see who they lose in the draft and who they pick up from the portal. Texas Tech, Texas A&M, etc.

MLB may have nothing to do with the NCAA, but MLB definitely cares about PR and their antitrust exemption that's being investigated by the Senate Judiciary Committee. All the NCAA would have to do is suggest they may have information the Senators would be interested in to get MLB to the table.

First you named 3 Texas programs. You are from CA? Does this happen out there too? 

CBI gives great advice. Do your homework, check it again, maybe again. Understand once your son commits he is out of the market.

The world as we know it has definetly changed.

As a side note, I know of 2 ACC programs that fired their baseball staff. Remember that alumni hold the power. If they are not happy they want change. They demand it because they give the $$$$. What's the best way to achieve that, fire your coaches. I am assuming that quite a few coaches had a sit down with their AD.

And I believe this is why we see what's happening.

JMO

@K9 posted:

And because the world has changed what happened before 2020 may not be relevant now.  We researched my 2020's school before he committed and found that they had very few transfers in, maybe one every other year.  Before his freshman season a baseball publication said of his school "they let their players develop rather than rely on transfers."  Fast forward two years and they dismissed all of the position players from the 2020 class and are bringing in 6 transfers.  (Luckily my son landed on his feet in a great situation, but some of his buddies are still scrambling.)

That's good.

Hopefully you are aware, that same research that your son and you did can be done in minutes, going back to 2017

https://collegebaseballinsight...nover-insights-free/

Last edited by CollegebaseballInsights
@TPM posted:

First you named 3 Texas programs. You are from CA? Does this happen out there too?

CBI gives great advice. Do your homework, check it again, maybe again. Understand once your son commits he is out of the market.

The world as we know it has definetly changed.

As a side note, I know of 2 ACC programs that fired their baseball staff. Remember that alumni hold the power. If they are not happy they want change. They demand it because they give the $$$$. What's the best way to achieve that, fire your coaches. I am assuming that quite a few coaches had a sit down with their AD.

And I believe this is why we see what's happening.

JMO

@TPM Agree, the D1 had a lot of changes.  Still waiting for 4 programs to name their coaches. Very messy

@baseballhs posted:

Of course but there wasn’t the COVID year or the transfer portal or the reduced draft. The research we did was irrelevant.

100%.  A lot of the current players affected right now were not privy to all the changes that resulted from COVID and NCAA changes. What's going on now for the most part isn't families not adjusting to the times, that's for the 23s, 24s, 25s, etc.  Obviously I see this through some parent tinted glasses , and yes there are unrealistic families out there......But, the incoming freshmen (think 6) cut from TT, did all of them not develop enough to play there?

When my 22 committed, things were drastically different than now, and we didn't have a crystal ball. Yes you could make some educated guesses and I think he'll be ok and even if it doesn't work out at his current school he'll land on his feet.

That's good.

Hopefully you are aware, that same research that your son and you did can be done in minutes, going back to 2017

https://collegebaseballinsight...nover-insights-free/

Actually, it is all relevant and was predictable once the lockdown occurred.

If you go from A to Z without review the incremental events, then relevance might be hard to see.

Each year post covid has a different effect on roster management

2021 - Expanded Roster size and MLB Draft 20 rounds

-



These 2 features were designed early 2021, it forced a serious reconciliation of the data as for the roster data in totality is poor.

From a business perspective, it was definitely understood with expanded roster the schools would increase their roster size and as they draw down each year, they would get the best fit.

https://keepplayingbaseball.org/the-growing-influence-of-the-juco-pipeline/

The dots were connect

I jumped on this board when my 2024 was in 8th grade. He's a rising junior now.  The college baseball recruiting scene has changed so much since I came on here .The information I've learned here has helped us to do our research, be realistic about the changing college baseball landscape, open our eyes to all the "business" of college baseball and how to be prepared to pivot on a moment's notice.   I know that a lot of kids aren't so lucky to be armed with the right information to make the best decisions and, some families/kids, just don't care. 

But, reading this thread, and hearing stories from friends and family throughout our baseball community, it makes me sad for so many young men that this is currently happening to. I know of 3 kids personally that are 2023s and 2024s that have been told to "decommit" and look elsewhere.  I know of another kid - 2022 - that got the call last week that he didn't have a spot on the team this fall.  I know of numerous other kids (2023s and 2024s), including my son, who were being heavily recruited over the past few months and now radio silence - travel coaches told the kids the colleges informed them they were focusing on portal transfers and current roster management and not recruiting 2023s and 2024s as much right now.

That is the world we live in though - constant change - whatever it may be...But as someone stated about, you have to be able to overcome, adapt and learn the new way with college baseball.  I just hope that we've done our research well and that my son will get to stay in one place for 4 years.  For us, the baseball aspect is an important part of college, but the college education and experience is the most important.

Last thing I will say though is - yanking kids around and taking away scholarships just because a coach over committed roster spots, isn't cool! Just don't do it in the first place!

I jumped on this board when my 2024 was in 8th grade. He's a rising junior now.  The college baseball recruiting scene has changed so much since I came on here .The information I've learned here has helped us to do our research, be realistic about the changing college baseball landscape, open our eyes to all the "business" of college baseball and how to be prepared to pivot on a moment's notice.   I know that a lot of kids aren't so lucky to be armed with the right information to make the best decisions and, some families/kids, just don't care.

But, reading this thread, and hearing stories from friends and family throughout our baseball community, it makes me sad for so many young men that this is currently happening to. I know of 3 kids personally that are 2023s and 2024s that have been told to "decommit" and look elsewhere.  I know of another kid - 2022 - that got the call last week that he didn't have a spot on the team this fall.  I know of numerous other kids (2023s and 2024s), including my son, who were being heavily recruited over the past few months and now radio silence - travel coaches told the kids the colleges informed them they were focusing on portal transfers and current roster management and not recruiting 2023s and 2024s as much right now.

That is the world we live in though - constant change - whatever it may be...But as someone stated about, you have to be able to overcome, adapt and learn the new way with college baseball.  I just hope that we've done our research well and that my son will get to stay in one place for 4 years.  For us, the baseball aspect is an important part of college, but the college education and experience is the most important.

Last thing I will say though is - yanking kids around and taking away scholarships just because a coach over committed roster spots, isn't cool! Just don't do it in the first place!

I see that you are in North Carolina. Which is further evidence that this is a national issue and not a regional one.

@Consultant posted:

Baseballmom

What type of Summer team does your son play on? Do you have a College near? Has a pro scout evaluated your son? Be concerned with your son. There are reasons for each case.

Bob

Hi! My son plays on a top National showcase team.  He has been evaluated by people in very knowledgeable positions - for example his pitching coach (been his coach for 4 years) was a first round draft and played for the Texas Rangers and a former ACC college pitching coach.  There have been others on his baseball journey that have played at all levels of baseball (college to MLB) that have provided honest evaluations of his talent and projectability.  I'm not worried about that.

Would you mind clarifying what "be concerned with your son" means? 

You mentioned other players having their scholarships removed. Every player will have a different future and how they prepare is a personal. Colleges are also searching for solutions.
Form a small group to include your son and his coach. Set up goals and a direction to a College which will match the goals.
As many others have said, it is a competitive business.  
Have you read “the Cloudburst Nine”. The story of the Navy Baseball team with Ted Williams in Chapel Hill, NC
Bob

I also have a 2024 and share the sentaments offered by BaseballMOM05.  My son has been having arranged calls with recruiting coaches for the past 18 months.  Yanking kids around appears to be normal behavior in the today's recruting process (new or not - I do not know).  The current system dymnamics force young teenage boys to grow up fast (and become salty and cynical before being old enough to drive a car, much less drink a beer legally).  My son sees a good amount of the Twitter traffic on this subject, along with the private chats he has with his 2023/24 peer group ... I think he is losing trust in adults through it all.

As a parent, I am now encouraging my son to delay his commitment decision timeline until both he and the college baseball coaches have a common, shared and accurate view of his projectability (with reasonable confidence).  Only then will the fit be obvious without overreaching too high of a competition level or without fealing like he has settled on something he is not excited about.  I'm just happy that he can see the recent MLB draft demographics trends for his primary position (LHP) ... 80% drafted LHP/RHP are from 4 Yr Colleges.  2 1/2  years ago, adults were feeding my son the "get drafted out of HS" line ... not exactly what the 40 yr mindset parents want to hear.

With regards to roster turnover analysis, I ty to avoid it; I will brute force my way through school-specific PG/PBR commitment history and college roster history when my son mentions the phrase "just got an offer"  I suspect I'll be getting my CBI subscription on Sep 1 ... I hear CBI offers great customer support :-)

I hope this recruiiting madness comes to end for my son (and me) within the next 12 monts.

PS: sure feel bad for the 21s, 22s, and 23s ... they are much worse off than my kid.

Last edited by mjd-dad
@mjd-dad posted:

I also have a 2024 and share the sentaments offered by BaseballMOM05.  My son has been having arranged calls with recruiting coaches for the past 18 months.  Yanking kids around appears to be normal behavior in the today's recruting process (new or not - I do not know).  The current system dymnamics force young teenage boys to grow up fast (and become salty and cynical before being old enough to drive a car, much less drink a beer legally).  My son sees a good amount of the Twitter traffic on this subject, along with the private chats he has with his 2023/24 peer group ... I think he is losing trust in adults through it all.

As a parent, I am now encouraging my son to delay his commitment decision timeline until both he and the college baseball coaches have a common, shared and accurate view of his projectability (with reasonable confidence).  Only then will the fit be obvious without overreaching too high of a competition level or without fealing like he has settled on something he is not excited about.  I'm just happy that he can see the recent MLB draft demographics trends for his primary position (LHP) ... 80% drafted LHP/RHP are from 4 Yr Colleges.  2 1/2  years ago, adults were feeding my son the "get drafted out of HS" line ... not exactly what the 40 yr mindset parents want to hear.

With regards to roster turnover analysis, I ty to avoid it; I will brute force my way through school-specific PG/PBR commitment history and college roster history when my son mentions the phrase "just got an offer"  I suspect I'll be getting my CBI subscription on Sep 1 ... I hear CBI offers great customer support :-)

I hope this recruiiting madness comes to end for my son (and me) within the next 12 monts.

PS: sure feel bad for the 21s, 22s, and 23s ... they are much worse off than my kid.

Use the KISS Method when doing your research,

As for PG/PGR/etc,  the verbal commits serve 1 purpose, taking you off the market.

IMHO,  the NLI for a students grad class is more concrete, a contract with school and MLB Draft leverage

Its blind spot is transfer portal and JUCO Pipeline (check out the growth)

CBI is self maintaining.  The insights are WYSIWYG.  Your imagination concerning the question you might want to answered. System is up 99.99%

Depending on the level college roster data has some serious challenges.

@adbono posted:

Absolutely correct. I think JuCo & D2 gets better players too. And D3 to a lesser extent. There are too many good players compared to available roster spots. So the level of play should go up everywhere.

IMHO, the JUCO Impact will be more regional.   I don't know if NorthEast will see significant upgrade, as for their are limited number of D1 and D2.

CCCAA will be very interesting,  NWAC ????

Also will help the non p5 colleges

Excatly! That's what makes me bummed for these kids. I had the BEST time on college playing volleyball and basketball with my teammates for 4 years! A lifetime of memories and friendships. Now it's all business. Umph...

I think that’s the biggest difference between now and back when some of us played college sports. Baseball is now big business and roster turnover is brutal. And the time demands are unreal. When I played I had the same core group of teammates for 3 years and we had time for a life away from baseball. We were able to get to know each other away from baseball.  And this was at a big time D1 program.   I’m still close with a handful of my teammates. Those kinds of relationships have to be harder to develop today.

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