VC

I guess the % is rising--early on it was 4% now you get 5%--is this an increase due to the new year

BIG HIT

I agree on gathering information but I always like to know the source and how solid the source is.

TRhit
Chill,

It is an interesting point.
Again - I say this with no disrespect intended - but the phenomenon of agent's squeezing every last penny out of the professional clubs (in the name of "taking care of the client) seems to be changing a bit.

Perhaps the difference between 75 million and an "unhappy" marriage versus 72 million and a happy marriage is worth something after all.
Especially for a young talented player with his whole career ahead of him.

This very new trend must be quite disturbing to agents. Your point is IMO - a very very good one.
quote:
Originally posted by voodoochile:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by bbscout:
"With over 200 free agents out there, the quality agent will sure earn his commission this year. It will be a battle to get some good players anything more than an invite to spring training, let alone top dollars."

I think you're comparing apples to oranges here. Halladay is in the prime of his career & was offered Arbitration so he could have gone to a hearing. Can't compare him to someone like Maddux who despite having a great past is viewed as having a questionable present & limited future. The lesser FA's like John Burkett, Dave Veres etc. are more likely to be at the mercy of the teams at this point.


Don't get me wrong, I am really just trying to compare Halladay to what he may have recieved in the same position about two years ago. The $42 mill he recieved now may have been $65 mill a couple of years ago. He, after all is a much better pitcher than Park or Driefort. Smile

My thinking is that baseball right now is like the real estate market. It goes up over the long haul, but at the present time there are too many houses for sale and not enough buyers. Next year it could change again and reverse (probably when Park and Driefort become free agents again) Smile That was my meaning when I said that the quality agent will sure earn his commission this year.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by TRhit:
VC

"I guess the % is rising--early on it was 4% now you get 5%--is this an increase due to the new year"

I answered the follwing question: " posted January 09, 2004 12:05 PM "Would you agree that 4% of the entire bonus is standard?"

My reply was: "If you were to survey the field that would probably be the most common number. Is it standard? No,many charge more some charge less." Where in there did I say I charge 4%?

"BIG HIT

I agree on gathering information but I always like to know the source and how solid the source is."

TRhit You're just an unredeemable "hater" & you'll never give me credit for anything I say because I won't tell you who I am. Like a spoiled little child who just keeps calling another child names until you get your way.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by itsinthegame:
Chill,

"It is an interesting point.
Again - I say this with no disrespect intended - but the phenomenon of agent's squeezing every last penny out of the professional clubs (in the name of "taking care of the client) seems to be changing a bit."

I wasn't trying to advocate "squeezing every last penny out of the professional clubs". All I was trying to point out was that an Agent who had more experience/ability would have done a better job of structuring the deal and netted more money for his client without increasing the amount paid by the team by a single penny.

"Perhaps the difference between 75 million and an "unhappy" marriage versus 72 million and a happy marriage is worth something after all."

Not to nit pick but the number was $42 million. However, I agree about keeping the "happy marriage" part of a players career. I have ALWAYS emphasized that since day 1 of my career. The reality is no matter how great the player, the name is only stitched on the back of jersey & the team can stich a different name there whenever they want.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by bbscout:

"Don't get me wrong, I am really just trying to compare Halladay to what he may have recieved in the same position about two years ago. The $42 mill he recieved now may have been $65 mill a couple of years ago. He, after all is a much better pitcher than Park or Driefort. Smile"

Agreed 100%. Still wondering what's in the pictures Boras has of Tom Hicks to get the money he did for Chan Hopeless.

"My thinking is that baseball right now is like the real estate market. It goes up over the long haul, but at the present time there are too many houses for sale and not enough buyers."

Like the Real Estate market, the demand is always high for premium properties. A "correction" has been going on for many years in Baseball & you don't see as many mediocre Jose Offerman type players getting 5 year guaranteed deals. But as was the case from the beginning of the game, the great players, ARod, Clemens, Delgado, Martinez, Jeter, Prior etc. will ALWAYS get big money.
VC

the 4% was bandied about in the discussions--now the number used is 5%

I never said you used it because in essences we know nothing about you

My second paragraph was to BIGHIT not you

Take umbrage all you want but off of what I see here it will be some other agent I recommend if asked. You may be helping others but you have not shown me a thing

I am not a hater but more of "show me " guy--you have shown me nothing yet except for a lot of cut and paste , "quotes" and then your opinion which follows. How can I give one credit if I do not know who he is--you have shown ME nothing original or outstanding

JMO

TRhit
[QUOTE]Originally posted by TRhit:
VC

"the 4% was bandied about in the discussions--now the number used is 5%"

I cited the exact quote in my post but apparently that isn't good enough for you.

"I never said you used it because in essences we know nothing about you"

Telling you about me isn't why I came here. I came here to exchange opinions & information.

"My second paragraph was to BIGHIT not you"

Ooohh sorry I didn't realize you were speaking in secret.

"Take umbrage all you want but off of what I see here it will be some other agent I recommend if asked."

I've done pretty well so far without your coveted recommendation. Don't want or need your help.

"You may be helping others but you have not shown me a thing"

As I said above, don't care, not here to "show" you anything.

"you have shown me nothing yet except for a lot of cut and paste , "quotes""

Yeah, I've tried to establish my opinions by furnishing quotes from objective sources rather than saying it's true because I say so. Sorry if the thinking makes your head hurt. I'll try not to confuse you with the facts or use too many big words.

And my Daddy can beat up your Daddy. Nyah, nyah, nyah.
Voodoo and bbscout,

The real estate analogy is an interesting one.

There are some significant differences however IMO. With "true" premium properties - the supply is actually quite limited. (i.e. You wont see many new premium properties built in mid-town Manhattan in the next 50 years).

In baseball - there is always a new supply - every year as you both well know.

There will always be a demand for premium players - and rightfully they will get the most money. The real question IMO - is what the inflation adjusted levels of salaries will be - lets say over the next 10 years - as compared to the prior ten. That will be very interesting to watch.

Note: The real estate market for premium properties has still not recovered to similar price levels from the late 1980's bubble. My guess is that baseball will see a similar - albeit less dramatic and severe - adjustment.

Just my opinion. Interesting analogy IMO.
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VC,
I'm enjoying your info, but have to interject that I find your posting style VERY difficult to read. Is it possible for you to just post a sentence or two rather than the whole passage to which your're responding. I never know where your response begins or ends and have a total headache by the time I'm done w/ the thread 14

And, I feel the need to stand up for TRhit. He's a longstanding member of this site and is very helpful and respected. He's asked you to identify yourself, and you've declined. Certainly within your rights, however as you're telling him to "grow up"....you might want to turn that finger around to point at yourself.

_______________________
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby, Hall of Famer
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Paul, I don't know much about east coast real estate, but the prices in California are sky high. The premium properties on the beach in Santa Monica and Malibu range from about 3 mill to 20 mill and are going for about 4-5 times what they sold for in the 80's. Our home has gone from about 100 K in 1988 to over 500 K today.

As for players, there is always a demand for premium players, but the question is "how much money"? Will it be $20 mill for the top guys, or might it be around 10-12 mill. Vlad was the top guy available this year and he did not get Manny or A-Rod money.
Doug,

The Malibu stuff equates to about a 6.5% increase per year over the last 25 years - not exactly earth shattering - but I wish I owned some LOL.

The properties (and market) I spoke of in the analogy were interesting to me because of the parallels you can see developing in MLB IMO.

Not residential premium properties - there are a ton of those all over the US.
I was referring to premium buildings (buildings that sold for huge sums of money - $1 billion plus) in the late 1980's. (The Japanese bought alot of this stuff - and got hammered.)

Cutting to the chase - I think you will see - on an inflation adjusted basis - a very significant decline in MLB salaries in the coming years - relative to where they were just 5 or so years ago. I see this as just about inevitable at this point.

Sorry for the boring business angle - but I find it very interesting - and I think many agents are well aware of this as well. Either way - it is fun to watch the market evolve IMO.

Example: A guy that got $20M (lump sum for this example) 5 years ago - would need to get approx. $25M - just to stay even with inflation (call it 4% per year). I just dont see that happening - and that is for the "premium" guys. The rest of the "non-premium" players have no chance at keeping up with 1990's prior levels IMO.

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[QUOTE]Originally posted by MrandMrsBaseball:
VC,
"I'm enjoying your info, but have to interject that I find your posting style VERY difficult to read."

Just follow the " ". I try to quote the comments I reply to.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by bbscout:
"Vlad was the top guy available this year and he did not get Manny or A-Rod money."

He shouldn't have gotten Manny or ARod $$$ because:

1) His back is uninsureable.

2) Isn't the presence in the community that ARod is i.e. can't use Vlad in TV ads to sell tickets, send him to banquets etc.

3)Hasn't had the career they've had. Check the numbers.

In a couple of years Arte Moreno(Angels new owner) will either look like a genius for signing Guerrero & Colon or he'll have the new version of Mo Vaughan & Wilson Alvarez to the tune of $25 million/year.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by itsinthegame:
"Cutting to the chase - I think you will see - on an inflation adjusted basis - a very significant decline in MLB salaries in the coming years - relative to where they were just 5 or so years ago. I see this as just about inevitable at this point."

Salaries are a function of revenue. If the teams make less money, the players will be paid less if they make more, the players will be paid more. The dramatic escalation in '00 was fueled primarily by the increase in the National TV rights deal MLB signed. If those numbers continue to rise so will salaries.
Whether it meets or beats inflation, who knows.


There are some pretty good players who'll be Free Agents next year Carlos Delgado, Eric Chavez, Carlos Beltran etc.. Let's see what they end up getting.

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Voodoo,

I'm talking about average salaries - not specific individuals.

Interesting info: last 5 years

2003 - 15 teams reduced average salary. Most in last 6 years.

Salary increases for all MLB since 1998

1999 - 15%
2000 - 17.4%
2001 - 13.4%
2002 - 7.4%
2003 - 3.3%

The money just isnt there - and the competition from non-US players is heating up.

Will be interesting to watch.
Voodoochile, Actually, Ramirez and Guerrero have had very similar numbers.

Through age 27 Guerrero has a .323 BA, 234 HR's, 226 2B's, 702 RBI, 123 SB's,.390 OBP, and a .588 Slug. Pct.

Ramierez at the same age had a .307 BA, 198 HR's, 213 2B's, 682 RBI, 27 SB's, .390 OBP, and a .577 Slug pct.

Similar in offensive talent, with the edge to Guerrero in speed and arm. The edge goes to Ramirez by about $90 Million in cash. Smile
[QUOTE]Originally posted by itsinthegame:
"I'm talking about average salaries - not specific individuals."

Don't know where you're getting your info but according to the numbers used by both MLB & MLBPA Average salary for the last 5 years has been:
03 - $2,372,189
02 - $2,295,649
01 - $2,138,896
00 - $1,895,630
99 - $1,611,166

"The money just isnt there"

Sure it is. What isn't there is the competition between teams for each others players. I'm sure that's a total coincidence though.

"and the competition from non-US players is heating up."

Don't understand your point. No matter where a player comes from, his salary counts toward MLB averages.

"Will be interesting to watch."

Agreed. At the very least interesting... & hopefully lucrative.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by bbscout:
"Voodoochile, Actually, Ramirez and Guerrero have had very similar numbers."

Their career numbers are similar. However in their "platform" years Ramirez led in HR's 38/25, RBI's 122/79, BA .351/.330, OBP .457/.426, SLG .697/.586 but most important of all days on the DL 0/46 with a disc problem in his back making him uninsureable.
Voodoo,

Those are almost exactly the numbers I have from the MLBPA - and the %'s decreases I cited are correct. I'm confused by your post.

Year to year increases have declined from an approx. 15% annual rate (1998-1999) to about 3% this last year. They have declined for 4 years in a row now.

That is no coincidence IMO.

As for the foreign player impact - With the influx of quality foreign players - in addition to the steady supply of homegrown quality players - there is simply more to choose from. That is most likely why the "demand" competition has lessened.

Either way - it sure is lucrative for all who make it to that level.

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