So let me get this straight, If our son keeps working on his skills, his talent will increase. Right?
The talent exists and the skills wil get better. Obviously the body matures so the talent manifests itself as you mature.
quote:Originally posted by OLDSLUGGER8:
Everyone knows warm weather players represent MLB, US born about 60/40 recently. My point is, they come from everywhere.
Maine 0
cept Maine…But that one I can understand…Bangor seems to have a peculiar vibe to me…**** you Stephen King!
They probably play s****r with lobster heads up there.
quote:OLDSLUGGER8 quote:
Everyone knows warm weather players represent MLB, US born about 60/40 recently. My point is, they come from everywhere.
Well put together lists Slugger.
What surprises me is that FL, who is usually kind of "puffy chested" about their baseball blood lines could hardly carry CA lunch. CA is king hands down.
One hypotheses that might be taken into account as a result of this list is that FL may have as much "talent" in the early years because of the ethnicities of the State, but as kids get older and baseball not only has economic repercussions on families (showcases, travel teams) but the college option is not as viable because of that same ethnicity issue. As a result those skills do not get practiced at the college level as much as the CA group.
CA baseball on the other hand may have a more "economically & educationally stable" families involved and the fallout of participants 16-18 yr of age is not as drastic as FL, thus you end up with more "skilled" talent when MLB comes calling.
This is not to be written in stone because us Northerners not only lack some baseball skills but there are few athletes up here to begin with, so what do we know
Slugger,
I would describe lack of repetition in many important ways. Number of ground balls fielded, number of at bats, number of at bats against quality competition, Number of games played against quality competition, and many other things.
Repetition in games against quality competition are the very most important repetitions. The one at bat against 75 mph pitching is not the same “rep” as an at bat against 92 mph pitching. Yet it doesn’t tell us which hitter will end up being the best.
If more players are getting drafted or going to college to play from a certain area, that area has more and better competition. The players who see this competition year round have an advantage over those who don’t. It in no way means that those players who don’t see this same caliber of competition as often have less potential. In fact, it is a reason to give those players more projection. Also, just being in an environment that has a large number of current and former professional players has to be somewhat of an advantage.
The percentage of population who make the Major Leagues from any one state is not as important as to the total number drafted from each state. If a state had a population of 2 and 1 made it, they would be number one (by percentage) by a huge amount.
It is amazing when such a large state like California is number one based on total numbers and percentage of population. For that matter, Florida and Texas being in the top 10 is amazing as well.
That means there’s a lot of players running around those states who have professional baseball ability. Cedar Rapids, Iowa probably has a higher percentage of population in the Big Leagues than Chicago. However, there might be 20 times as many in the Big Leagues from Chicago. So which area has the better baseball? I actually already know the answer to that question.
Also when a player is drafted out of college, he is often said to be drafted from the state where the college is. For example… Is someone like Jeff Clement who went to HS in Iowa and signed out of Southern Cal counted as Iowa or California?
Anyway, above all, if you look at the draft every year, it is obvious that certain states have more players drafted than others. Over the years Illinois and New York are high on the list of players drafted. This only goes to prove that lots of talent exists in the North and the Midwest. Talent can be anywhere and everyone knows that. However, in most cases the talent in states like California, Florida and Texas will be overall more “advanced” at the high school level than the states in the north. It’s very obvious by following summer baseball and the draft each year. I think it is the competition that is most responsible.
That said, the players from the north can be considered to have more projection. Simply because they have not played as much at the highest levels. In fact, the teams from the north who do seek this high level of competition seem to have the most players going on to college and professional baseball. In the end it makes no difference where any individual player is from. The best player of all could come from anywhere in the world.
I would describe lack of repetition in many important ways. Number of ground balls fielded, number of at bats, number of at bats against quality competition, Number of games played against quality competition, and many other things.
Repetition in games against quality competition are the very most important repetitions. The one at bat against 75 mph pitching is not the same “rep” as an at bat against 92 mph pitching. Yet it doesn’t tell us which hitter will end up being the best.
If more players are getting drafted or going to college to play from a certain area, that area has more and better competition. The players who see this competition year round have an advantage over those who don’t. It in no way means that those players who don’t see this same caliber of competition as often have less potential. In fact, it is a reason to give those players more projection. Also, just being in an environment that has a large number of current and former professional players has to be somewhat of an advantage.
The percentage of population who make the Major Leagues from any one state is not as important as to the total number drafted from each state. If a state had a population of 2 and 1 made it, they would be number one (by percentage) by a huge amount.
It is amazing when such a large state like California is number one based on total numbers and percentage of population. For that matter, Florida and Texas being in the top 10 is amazing as well.
That means there’s a lot of players running around those states who have professional baseball ability. Cedar Rapids, Iowa probably has a higher percentage of population in the Big Leagues than Chicago. However, there might be 20 times as many in the Big Leagues from Chicago. So which area has the better baseball? I actually already know the answer to that question.
Also when a player is drafted out of college, he is often said to be drafted from the state where the college is. For example… Is someone like Jeff Clement who went to HS in Iowa and signed out of Southern Cal counted as Iowa or California?
Anyway, above all, if you look at the draft every year, it is obvious that certain states have more players drafted than others. Over the years Illinois and New York are high on the list of players drafted. This only goes to prove that lots of talent exists in the North and the Midwest. Talent can be anywhere and everyone knows that. However, in most cases the talent in states like California, Florida and Texas will be overall more “advanced” at the high school level than the states in the north. It’s very obvious by following summer baseball and the draft each year. I think it is the competition that is most responsible.
That said, the players from the north can be considered to have more projection. Simply because they have not played as much at the highest levels. In fact, the teams from the north who do seek this high level of competition seem to have the most players going on to college and professional baseball. In the end it makes no difference where any individual player is from. The best player of all could come from anywhere in the world.
quote:Originally posted by OLDSLUGGER8:
If you really want to have some fun with numbers, look at the draft disparity amongst certain States.
For some more numerical fun, read Malcom Gladwell's book "Outlier: The Story of Success". He makes a really interesting observation about the high correlation of pro athlete's birthdays relative to the cut-off dates for competetive youth sports. It sounds hokey until you look at the data he provides. He shows how an overwhelming majority of pro baseball and hockey players are born just after the cut-off dates, and proposes that those kids are raised with a lifetime of athletic successes because they are older than most in their classes. Seems just as reasonable as some of these theories...
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
Also, just being in an environment that has a large number of current and former professional players has to be somewhat of an advantage.
That said, the players from the north can be considered to have more projection. Simply because they have not played as much at the highest levels. In fact, the teams from the north who do seek this high level of competition seem to have the most players going on to college and professional baseball. In the end it makes no difference where any individual player is from. The best player of all could come from anywhere in the world.
OLDSLUGGER,
I think you might be reading something other than what I mean. BTW, which historical numbers are you referring to?
Obviously 90-92 is 90-92 anywhere in the world. One might be better than the other, but the best could easily be the kid from the north. There’s just not as many of those types, it’s sure not because they don’t exist.
If you are a high school hitter from (you name it state in the north) you might hit against 90-92 once or twice a year. If you are a high school hitter in Florida, Georgia, California or Texas, you will see 90-92 much more often. There’s really no sense in arguing that point. If I’m wrong we’ve been wasting a lot of time for the past 20 years. The Indiana kid can easily hone his skills in Indiana. He can even be the best player in the country. There’s just more that are like him in other parts of the country.
It’s this simple… If you took the top 25 players in the state of Ohio, they would all be very good. The top one or two could possibly be as good as anyone in the country. In California, Texas or Florida there might be several hundred players who would be at the level of the top 25 in another state. These top players compete against each other on a frequent basis.
We are not talking about who the top athletes are, but the most advanced baseball players! This is a result of the competition and the environment. The thing I’ve probably noticed more than anything is that there seems to be more of the “late bloomer” types that come from the cold climate states. This is yet another thing that relates to players from certain areas of the country being more “advanced”.
I think you might be reading something other than what I mean. BTW, which historical numbers are you referring to?
Obviously 90-92 is 90-92 anywhere in the world. One might be better than the other, but the best could easily be the kid from the north. There’s just not as many of those types, it’s sure not because they don’t exist.
If you are a high school hitter from (you name it state in the north) you might hit against 90-92 once or twice a year. If you are a high school hitter in Florida, Georgia, California or Texas, you will see 90-92 much more often. There’s really no sense in arguing that point. If I’m wrong we’ve been wasting a lot of time for the past 20 years. The Indiana kid can easily hone his skills in Indiana. He can even be the best player in the country. There’s just more that are like him in other parts of the country.
It’s this simple… If you took the top 25 players in the state of Ohio, they would all be very good. The top one or two could possibly be as good as anyone in the country. In California, Texas or Florida there might be several hundred players who would be at the level of the top 25 in another state. These top players compete against each other on a frequent basis.
We are not talking about who the top athletes are, but the most advanced baseball players! This is a result of the competition and the environment. The thing I’ve probably noticed more than anything is that there seems to be more of the “late bloomer” types that come from the cold climate states. This is yet another thing that relates to players from certain areas of the country being more “advanced”.
Man, there's some good stuff in this thread! It's worth reading a time or two!
Could someone be so kind to go through the math that gets a southern player 3,000-4,000 more at bats over a northern player? I just find it hard to believe that it is that many. For example:
Player plays from age 8 (I am discounting at bats before 8) to age 18, that is 10 years. Using the low side of 3,000 that is an extra 300 at bats per year. Using 4 at bats per game, that is an extra 75 games per year. For 10 years! That added to what in the north 50-75 games? 150 game years? For 10 years! I think that would border on abuse of the pitchers and catchers. There may be kids that have done that many 3 or 4 years out of the 10, but I don't know too many of them.
Someone help me out here. I would think it would be more, but not that much more. We generally don't play too many games (pony, little league, HS or travel) in December/January in Florida.
Player plays from age 8 (I am discounting at bats before 8) to age 18, that is 10 years. Using the low side of 3,000 that is an extra 300 at bats per year. Using 4 at bats per game, that is an extra 75 games per year. For 10 years! That added to what in the north 50-75 games? 150 game years? For 10 years! I think that would border on abuse of the pitchers and catchers. There may be kids that have done that many 3 or 4 years out of the 10, but I don't know too many of them.
Someone help me out here. I would think it would be more, but not that much more. We generally don't play too many games (pony, little league, HS or travel) in December/January in Florida.
quote:It is obvious talent comes from everywhere, and this whole aspect of warm weather players being better overall is ridiculous. If it was true, then you would have MLB of Florida, MLB of Texas, and MLB of California.
3000-4000 extra at bats is an easy thing to believe, but when measured as to where these players started playing baseball as youths, then the whole theory is shot because it is pure math that a higher population can produce a greater result.
What are you smoking exactly? No one in this entire thread has suggested that talented kids cannot come from the north.
By your own numbers posted above, over three times as many players come from Florida as New York yet NY has an overwhelming population advantage. Why wouldn't NY produce more players using your convoluted logic? Because the scouts are myopic? Because the kids in Florida are getting more "indoor" practice time? More "indoor" tee work? More "indoor" soft tosssing work? (sarcasim off).
How about the most obvious answer of all that PG has stated - more repetitions against quality competition. Obviously, if the repetitions are against the local weak sisters of the poor they don't mean a whole lot. Repetitions against top competition is the only way to explain it. Do you think when athletes are born that their athletic genetic codes are somehow magically "ratcheted up a notch" if they are born in Texas, Florida, or California? The only way to explain these differences (in the aggregate - not the exceptions) is by experience. What is so hard to understand about that?
I also agree with PG on another point. It is entirely possible for a kid born in the north to have more upside even if presently they might not have the same experience. As all the state numbers suggest, talent comes from anywhere.
I think that number came from what MLB usually feels a player needs to become proficient at the MLB level ( good experience more meaningful). That's why many position players head off to college. I always thought that count began after HS, unless the hitter was a first rounder very close to MLB.
My understanding is NOT always so much who has more talent or skill, but who has talent and skill with more experience, something you need to have before you get to the show.
JMO.
My understanding is NOT always so much who has more talent or skill, but who has talent and skill with more experience, something you need to have before you get to the show.
JMO.
Not to totally change the subject, but it is pretty tough to improve once you are recognized the very best. This can be explained as "satisfaction" which can be a baseball players worst enemy.
Often we will see an extremely talented underclassmen from a not so competitive part of the country. Then the next year he is the exact same player. Still by far better than everyone else in his part of the world.
These things are less likely to happen in the baseball hotbed areas. That is because there are so many talented players... if you get satisfied... they start passing you up in a hurry! The competition forces players to keep getting better.
However, that satisfaction thing has no boundaries... It has jumped up and nailed many talented players from all parts of the country.
Often we will see an extremely talented underclassmen from a not so competitive part of the country. Then the next year he is the exact same player. Still by far better than everyone else in his part of the world.
These things are less likely to happen in the baseball hotbed areas. That is because there are so many talented players... if you get satisfied... they start passing you up in a hurry! The competition forces players to keep getting better.
However, that satisfaction thing has no boundaries... It has jumped up and nailed many talented players from all parts of the country.
TPM, I have heard the number 3,000 for at bats after HS. But that is not the context in which it is used in this thread.
In your opinion why would position players want to get 750 or so at bats in college with aluminum when they could get at least twice that with wood in the minors over the same time span against better pitching?
In your opinion why would position players want to get 750 or so at bats in college with aluminum when they could get at least twice that with wood in the minors over the same time span against better pitching?
Backstop - I sent you a pm.
PG - the satisfaction thing also affects workers and other non-baseball players as well. This downturn in the economy is a wakeup call for many people.
PG - the satisfaction thing also affects workers and other non-baseball players as well. This downturn in the economy is a wakeup call for many people.
quote:Originally posted by ClevelandDad:
What are you smoking exactly?
Post elimination drugs when encountered by superiority complexes.
quote:PG quote:
Not to totally change the subject, but it is pretty tough to improve once you are recognized the very best. This can be explained as "satisfaction" which can be a baseball players worst enemy.
Great point pg. Do you think that may be part of the reason Northern kids in the later part of the HS years are labeled "projectable". Reason being, that they go on the travel and showcase circuit and can see that the end is still a bit away and that initial drive is still there?
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
Often we will see an extremely talented underclassmen from a not so competitive part of the country. Then the next year he is the exact same player. Still by far better than everyone else in his part of the world.
***What does that mean?***
These things are less likely to happen in the baseball hotbed areas. That is because there are so many talented players... if you get satisfied... they start passing you up in a hurry! The competition forces players to keep getting better.
***Now we have Regional Motivation Factors?***
However, that satisfaction thing has no boundaries... It has jumped up and nailed many talented players from all parts of the country.
***And then a backpedal Contradiction***
Could it be that hotbed player "hit the wall"
Any chance not so competitive area players work very hard also? Lots of assumptions!
Look up a player named Marc Krauss from Ohio U.
Better yet, maybe I should head over to the local indoor facility here where several college and minor league players are working out together during break to prepare for the season and mention that they come from an area not very competitive.
I am sure they would get a huge laugh!!
Since there was some posted reference to HS baseball, show us that average velocity of Florida HS pitchers in HS is so much higher than say, Michigan?
Northern kids play summerball also, and face some pretty solid competition out of State.
Florida, about 13000 people per high school
18,000,000 folks and about 1350 schools
18,000,000 folks and about 1350 schools
About 12,500 people per high school in Texas?
Anyone seeing a pattern here?
The distribution of talent is about equal per high school, and they are all NOT studs, so it is relative.
Cali, Texas, and Florida have more better players because of population, not because they are premier competition. You can only slice bread so much into slices.
The math proves it.
Saying a northern State is weaker competition is way wrong. It is all relative, by population.
Tell the scouts that. Its like the Lake of California and the Lake of Illinois. The Cali lake is bigger as is the fish population.
The Illinois lake is smaller, as is their fish population. Less water to cover, less fish. In Cali, more water to cover, more fish. When you look at MLB roster stats and where they came from, one can determine that quality is quality, wherever.
The post about weaker competition in the north is BS.
Anyone seeing a pattern here?
The distribution of talent is about equal per high school, and they are all NOT studs, so it is relative.
Cali, Texas, and Florida have more better players because of population, not because they are premier competition. You can only slice bread so much into slices.
The math proves it.
Saying a northern State is weaker competition is way wrong. It is all relative, by population.
Tell the scouts that. Its like the Lake of California and the Lake of Illinois. The Cali lake is bigger as is the fish population.
The Illinois lake is smaller, as is their fish population. Less water to cover, less fish. In Cali, more water to cover, more fish. When you look at MLB roster stats and where they came from, one can determine that quality is quality, wherever.
The post about weaker competition in the north is BS.