It is Past Time to Face Reality

ABSORBER posted:

TPM posted:

I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.

What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?

The federal government WAS unprepared!

Edit:  FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.

Huh? Billion $ companies not being able to pay their employees == government being unprepared?

Yeah, you are right. 6 deaths and 281 cases in a very sparsely populated state; better shut it down!!!

As of today, that was the stats on MT. Let's see what it is in a week.

RJM posted:

SomeBaseballDad posted:

22and25 posted:

 There is no easy answer but just opening everything up and letting this thing "run it's course" is no bargain either. 

But it is going to "run it's course". The only thing we can control is how quickly it does it. Other's arguing do we sacrifice grandma and grandpa to go back to work, they are going to get it, not if, when. Pandora's box has been opened.

*Pandora opened a jar left in her care containing sickness, death and many other unspecified evils which were then released into the world.

60 million people work for small businesses. The SBA says the average small business has enough cash to last twenty-seven days. They have twenty-seven days to run it’s course. So if we wait three of four months for the situation to run it’s course what do we do next with rampant unemployment and homelessness?

But that's my point. Sheltering-in-place isn't going to stop it. It is here and will remain here. At some point you get on with living.

We stay home until the point when, when you get sick, there will be an ICU bed for you (and nurses to take care of you).  And then you hope and pray that that is enough; for some people, it won't be.

It's still called flattening the curve, and it's still valid.

Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

cabbagedad posted:

A pretty good article regarding resuming of sports in this reality...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/spor...akkt?ocid=spartandhp

 … early Fall at the earliest - absolute best case scenario.  Requires all of us to seriously stop the notion of trying to compare this to "just another flu" and car accidents.

Another piece has the peak use of hospital resources hitting 37 states during the last two weeks in April with another ten states seeing peak between May 1 and May 22.  Very difficult two months in front of us.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/heal...2VyT?ocid=spartandhp

Cabbagedad - the statistics used in your second article are from a site I posted about yesterday and RJM later posted too.  Is from healthdata.org.  If NY State is to peak in 4-5 days and the US in next 10-11 days things will be on the margin getting better not worse very soon.  Yes, next week or two will be tougher.  Also, look at the site -the projections, they are way off as it relates to resources needs, beds, ICU beds etc. In other words, things are coming in much lower than original projections

There will be a lot of work to do to get things heading back in the right direction. For my work I am confident we will not go 100% fully back for a month or two but Sports in some form will come back sooner than early fall.  Heck, early fall is more of a concern is Covid comes back....

NY State stats today from Gov Cuomo - the fewest number of new hospitalizations in over 2 weeks, Now below 600 new hospitalizations, down from 1100 the day before and from 1400 the day before, deaths down (one day only), Apex this week.  We are close to getting through the apex.   I know thinking positive won't bring things back faster but worst-case scenarios are NOT occurring at the moment and don't seem in the cards.  

Good post, thanks. I wish that everyone would take a look at the site you and others posted. 

anotherparent posted:

We stay home until the point when, when you get sick, there will be an ICU bed for you (and nurses to take care of you).  And then you hope and pray that that is enough; for some people, it won't be.

It's still called flattening the curve, and it's still valid.

I don't understand why people don't understand this concept.

In addition to healthdata.org coronavirus.jhu.edu is also a very informative site.

Aren’t we supposed to stay away from politics? There are plenty of forums for that, or Facebook.  Enough.

baseballhs posted:

Aren’t we supposed to stay away from politics? There are plenty of forums for that, or Facebook.  Enough.

I wasn't a Bush supporter. That said the dude had it right. Are we so entrenched in our positions it's impossible to give credit where credit is due? Is it just impossible to have an adult conversation? Obviously you can't, and others here can't, but some of us can. Can you not leave us in peace and ignore what triggers you?

anotherparent posted:

We stay home until the point when, when you get sick, there will be an ICU bed for you (and nurses to take care of you).  And then you hope and pray that that is enough; for some people, it won't be.

It's still called flattening the curve, and it's still valid.

So we stay at home until we get sick?  But if I stay home I won't get sick, so how does this work.  Your comment may have been facetious, but it points out something that I haven't heard anyone "in charge" say - what are the conditions under which we can all return to normal and restrictions lifted?  

It started out with flattening the curve, but that is a ridiculous notion if we only have 10k ventilators and over 300 million people need to get sick over some extended period of time (decades?) in order for this thing to run its course.  

Is it when the number of cases start to drop?  That doesn't work either, because as long as its out there, we'll all get sick if we start back up again.

Is it when a vaccine is found?  Possibly year, maybe more?

Is it when a treatment is found to work, then it's ok when we all get sick since we'll get better?

I'm just trying to figure out what data to look for, because cases and deaths don't tell us when this will be over.

I wasn't being facetious at all, I was being completely serious.  I am not an epidemiologist.  But, what we are waiting for is rapid virus and antibody tests that can be easily given to lots and lots of people.  Supposedly they have those ready now, and are testing them.

Rapid antibody tests will tell us how many people actually have had the virus and now have antibodies.  Once the epidemiologists have a sense of that (it is certainly many more people than have thus-far been tested positive), they will know how rapidly the virus will spread once we are let back out.

When we have rapid and readily available virus tests, they'll be able to test people with symptoms immediately, and isolate them immediately.  The point is to be able to quickly contain outbreaks when they happen again, rather than letting people wander around for weeks infecting others.

The third thing is that if people are getting sick at a lower rate, they won't overwhelm the medical system.  80% of people who get this (or probably more than that) don't need hospitalization at all.  20% of the 327 million do, that's 65 million.  7% may need ventilators, that's 23 million.  There are around 160,000 ventilators in the US (? quick google).  That's why it is critical to spread the numbers out.

All of that is why this is not like the flu.  Flu viruses have been around for decades or centuries, and a part of the population has built immunity to them.  So, not everyone gets them anyway, H1N1 case in point.  That was true even before flu vaccines.  COVID-19 is new, so no-one has immunity at all.

anotherparent posted:

We stay home until the point when, when you get sick, there will be an ICU bed for you (and nurses to take care of you).  And then you hope and pray that that is enough; for some people, it won't be.

It's still called flattening the curve, and it's still valid.

This is what it’s about. We can’t save everyone. But we can prevent some deaths from lack of services. 

anotherparent posted:

I wasn't being facetious at all, I was being completely serious.  I am not an epidemiologist.  But, what we are waiting for is rapid virus and antibody tests that can be easily given to lots and lots of people.  Supposedly they have those ready now, and are testing them.

Rapid antibody tests will tell us how many people actually have had the virus and now have antibodies.  Once the epidemiologists have a sense of that (it is certainly many more people than have thus-far been tested positive), they will know how rapidly the virus will spread once we are let back out.

When we have rapid and readily available virus tests, they'll be able to test people with symptoms immediately, and isolate them immediately.  The point is to be able to quickly contain outbreaks when they happen again, rather than letting people wander around for weeks infecting others.

The third thing is that if people are getting sick at a lower rate, they won't overwhelm the medical system.  80% of people who get this (or probably more than that) don't need hospitalization at all.  20% of the 327 million do, that's 65 million.  7% may need ventilators, that's 23 million.  There are around 160,000 ventilators in the US (? quick google).  That's why it is critical to spread the numbers out.

All of that is why this is not like the flu.  Flu viruses have been around for decades or centuries, and a part of the population has built immunity to them.  So, not everyone gets them anyway, H1N1 case in point.  That was true even before flu vaccines.  COVID-19 is new, so no-one has immunity at all.

 

Interesting analysis.  If I understand this, we need to get 23 million people through the medical care system 160k at a time before this is over.  If these ventilators are needed for 2 weeks per patient, each one can be used by 24 patients over the course of a year, so we can treat 3.8 million people per year... so 6 years for this to play out?  So we stay closed for 6 years?

We hope there will be a vaccine in 16 months or less.  We also hope there will be medicines that really help.  Engineers are inventing new ventilators and figuring out ways to use the ones we have for more than one person. The quicker those things are developed, tested, and produced, the quicker we don't have to rely on the ventilators.  Also, again I'm not an epidemiologist, but the more people who get the virus and become immune, the less likely there are to be widespread recurrences because it won't get a toehold.  I.e., herd immunity.

It all comes down to what scientists, doctors, and engineers can do, and whether the doctors and nurses can keep up the pace.

anotherparent posted:

We hope there will be a vaccine in 16 months or less.  We also hope there will be medicines that really help.  Engineers are inventing new ventilators and figuring out ways to use the ones we have for more than one person. The quicker those things are developed, tested, and produced, the quicker we don't have to rely on the ventilators.  Also, again I'm not an epidemiologist, but the more people who get the virus and become immune, the less likely there are to be widespread recurrences because it won't get a toehold.  I.e., herd immunity.

It all comes down to what scientists, doctors, and engineers can do, and whether the doctors and nurses can keep up the pace.

FYI, it takes years to develop a new ventilator. My spouse is a clinical engineer. He works for a ventilator company. They’ve ramped up production to 500 vents per week. Also, 3M isn’t the only one who sold out Americans. Another competitor company sold a boatload of vents to a European country in February. Dumb, dumb, dumb. 

anotherparent posted:

I wasn't being facetious at all, I was being completely serious.  I am not an epidemiologist.  But, what we are waiting for is rapid virus and antibody tests that can be easily given to lots and lots of people.  Supposedly they have those ready now, and are testing them.

Rapid antibody tests will tell us how many people actually have had the virus and now have antibodies.  Once the epidemiologists have a sense of that (it is certainly many more people than have thus-far been tested positive), they will know how rapidly the virus will spread once we are let back out.

When we have rapid and readily available virus tests, they'll be able to test people with symptoms immediately, and isolate them immediately.  The point is to be able to quickly contain outbreaks when they happen again, rather than letting people wander around for weeks infecting others.

The third thing is that if people are getting sick at a lower rate, they won't overwhelm the medical system.  80% of people who get this (or probably more than that) don't need hospitalization at all.  20% of the 327 million do, that's 65 million.  7% may need ventilators, that's 23 million.  There are around 160,000 ventilators in the US (? quick google).  That's why it is critical to spread the numbers out.

All of that is why this is not like the flu.  Flu viruses have been around for decades or centuries, and a part of the population has built immunity to them.  So, not everyone gets them anyway, H1N1 case in point.  That was true even before flu vaccines.  COVID-19 is new, so no-one has immunity at all.

 

Your post makes a lot of sense to me.   Bottom line is we need more data, and better methods to identify the virus and treat people.   We have none of this today, however the world and US is working towards this.   We have to buy ourselves time to better understand something we know very little about, and to execute a coordinated plan across a vast country.   It would be helpful if some of our states would follow Federal guidelines.   Those governors look like idiots.

We seem to be slowing it down slightly across the country with the exception of the "hot spots" like NYC where our system is overwhelmed and they are extremely reactive day to day.   When you turn on the news you get a NYC-centric view of the epidemic because it is a world-wide media capitaI.   The short-term tactics of isolation, facemasks, etc...buys us time to deal with the next critical decision.   I was listening to Dr Fauci over the weekend, and he referred to a "virus rebound"....which is a point in time when we think we have this thing under control, but it comes back temporarily and that is why we desperately need the vaccine or least better treatment methods. 

Listen, I'm not a Trump fan or supporter at all.  I can't stand the man.   But this isn't about politics.  This is about our elected leader, and respect for the Office of the President.  He is my President.   Trump and his team are doing a pretty good job of dealing with this so far.   

As always, JMO.

Well stated Fenway!  As your comments usually are. 

The data https://covid19.healthdata.org/ was quietly updated yesterday with no announcement. Again, this is what the policy makers are using to make decisions. Numbers had to be reduced again. Find your state and look at data. 

I think soon in some states the power will be given to governors to make own decisions on returning. 

James G posted:

The data https://covid19.healthdata.org/ was quietly updated yesterday with no announcement. Again, this is what the policy makers are using to make decisions. Numbers had to be reduced again. Find your state and look at data. 

I think soon in some states the power will be given to governors to make own decisions on returning. 

This was one of the models they were using, and is one of easiest to view.  I also notice that it is informatics based, which need reliable data to feed into it.  For Covid19, the data is constantly being updated, hopefully improving in reliability, and is constantly evolving.  I find it interesting that my state all of a sudden has hit its 'peak' in the model, but the US model looks worse.  In the end, it is more of an interest for data people like me.

One of the factors was obviously whether the state had a stay-at-home order, because Alabama's numbers dropped sharply, because they implemented stay-at-home on April 4, which was after the previous model had been released.  I wonder whether the weighting of the value of stay-at-home has increased in the model, now that they've seen how effective it was in Washington and California?

Viking0 posted:

James G posted:

The data https://covid19.healthdata.org/ was quietly updated yesterday with no announcement. Again, this is what the policy makers are using to make decisions. Numbers had to be reduced again. Find your state and look at data. 

I think soon in some states the power will be given to governors to make own decisions on returning. 

This was one of the models they were using, and is one of easiest to view.  I also notice that it is informatics based, which need reliable data to feed into it.  For Covid19, the data is constantly being updated, hopefully improving in reliability, and is constantly evolving.  I find it interesting that my state all of a sudden has hit its 'peak' in the model, but the US model looks worse.  In the end, it is more of an interest for data people like me.

Florida peak date changed since last update. Coming earlier than expected.  

I actually refer to my weather channel app which has a daily reporting of cases, deaths, etc., county and state.  If you don't see  the COVID button on your app, you need to update.

 As we speak, a Canadian company is sending down 200,000 serology tests to the US, at $10/test.https://www.cbc.ca/news/health...-in-canada-1.5518485These tests are critical in ID'ing who has already been infected and developed antibodies, and therefore likely not to at risk of re-infection.  It's possible that their blood plasma can also be used to help those in critical stages, saving lives. 

Some hockey manufacturers from both sides of the border(MI and upstate NY on the American side, Ontario and Quebec on the other)have converted to making PPE- reusable nylon hospital gowns, and Bauer is making some pretty awesome face shields, which is a natural pivot for them, as they are used to making  face shields that won't fog up or break under the duress of a hockey game.https://www.nhpr.org/post/exet...19-pandemic#stream/0

    All these companies are cooperating together, and making their plans available on the internet so others(usually smaller, more nimble shops and factories) can turn out PPE....one will have some mounting hardware or materials, others will have the machines, others the nylon or plexi. They are working night and day to crank these out. 

 I can't believe that it is so hard to make swabs. My wife's hospital is down to only 4 tests/day(including Flu tests) because they are so short of the damn things. 

Are you guys ready for critical thinking?  I mean, we should continue to face reality. Looking at evidence to see if the Pandemic is playing out as predicted several weeks back when lockdowns/social distancing and other methods were put in place?

The data below is from the Murray model.  The IHME. http://www.healthdata.org/ This is the model used that has shaped the state and federal policy that we are operating under. There have been some large changes in the predictions the last couple of days.

The overall peak of hospitalizations have not changed at this time. Total hospital beds have been revised downward 46%. ICU beds down 26% and ventilators needed down 40%.

Here is a comparison of the model predictions for hospital beds needed by state on April 4th to the published bed usage from each state.

What?  Your aging eyes with 2.5X magnifying glasses can't read the size 4 font?  Click here https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU...t=jpg&name=large

I am all for a couple more weeks of the current rules, and then seeing what the data says. In no way to I contend that this isn't a real problem.  Just that we should continue to look at the data.

My hopes are that the models are very wrong, missing on basic assumptions.  My thoughts are that China covered up and lied about much of what happened in Wuhan, particularly when the outbreak began. There is genetic evidence by UCSF https://twitter.com/AgBioWorld.../1247151574662680576 that there are multiple lines of Covid-19 in the same city, meaning that there wasn't a "single source" that started an area outbreak. Conjecture to me at this point, but a much earlier outbreak covered up by China coming in and out of the US (and Italy, Britain, Iran, France, the rest of the world).  This means the start date for the calculations in the model are much earlier than the week before the first positive case in Washington (that's what is currently used in the model). An earlier start date "flattens the curve", or in reality, the curve was never going to be as steep as we were told.

Here is an article on "The curve is already flat" https://archive.fo/Nd2YC  I can't source this as well, so take it for what you want.

Again, I hope the models are very wrong. Nothing wrong with being an optimist, is there?

Some context.  My current wife is an occupational therapist. She works with a confined and fragile population, a "State School".  To translate that to a dictionary from 40 years ago, an Asylum. She is over "Choking" for about 200 patients. (I really enjoy introducing her at parties).  They had half dozen or so COVID positives.  And one death. She had "same room contact" with the deceased, but not hands on treatment of him. But it seems to have settled and not increased.  So we are very aware of quarantine, isolation, etc.  Also, my first wife passed away as a result of the common flu progressing to pneumonia about a dozen plus years ago.

Go44dad posted:

Are you guys ready for critical thinking?  I mean, we should continue to face reality. Looking at evidence to see if the Pandemic is playing out as predicted several weeks back when lockdowns/social distancing and other methods were put in place?

The data below is from the Murray model.  The IHME. http://www.healthdata.org/ This is the model used that has shaped the state and federal policy that we are operating under. There have been some large changes in the predictions the last couple of days.

The overall peak of hospitalizations have not changed at this time. Total hospital beds have been revised downward 46%. ICU beds down 26% and ventilators needed down 40%.

 

Here is a comparison of the model predictions for hospital beds needed by state on April 4th to the published bed usage from each state.

What?  Your aging eyes with 2.5X magnifying glasses can't read the size 4 font?  Click here https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU...t=jpg&name=large

I am all for a couple more weeks of the current rules, and then seeing what the data says. In no way to I contend that this isn't a real problem.  Just that we should continue to look at the data.

My hopes are that the models are very wrong, missing on basic assumptions.  My thoughts are that China covered up and lied about much of what happened in Wuhan, particularly when the outbreak began. There is genetic evidence by UCSF https://twitter.com/AgBioWorld.../1247151574662680576 that there are multiple lines of Covid-19 in the same city, meaning that there wasn't a "single source" that started an area outbreak. Conjecture to me at this point, but a much earlier outbreak covered up by China coming in and out of the US (and Italy, Britain, Iran, France, the rest of the world).  This means the start date for the calculations in the model are much earlier than the week before the first positive case in Washington (that's what is currently used in the model). An earlier start date "flattens the curve", or in reality, the curve was never going to be as steep as we were told.

Here is an article on "The curve is already flat" https://archive.fo/Nd2YC  I can't source this as well, so take it for what you want.

Again, I hope the models are very wrong. Nothing wrong with being an optimist, is there?

Some context.  My current wife is an occupational therapist. She works with a confined and fragile population, a "State School".  To translate that to a dictionary from 40 years ago, an Asylum. She is over "Choking" for about 200 patients. (I really enjoy introducing her at parties).  They had half dozen or so COVID positives.  And one death. She had "same room contact" with the deceased, but not hands on treatment of him. But it seems to have settled and not increased.  So we are very aware of quarantine, isolation, etc.  Also, my first wife passed away as a result of the common flu progressing to pneumonia about a dozen plus years ago.

 

 

 

Those are all interesting numbers, but we haven't tested nearly enough people (we should test everyone) to know the full picture. We're shooting in the dark because WE DON'T KNOW what's going on because we haven't tested everyone. Lots more people have it than are reported and are spreading it around not even knowing it. S. Korea had the same case as us on the same day and their per capita deaths and subsequent cases are way lower because:

1. they tested everybody
2. quarantined everyone
3. wore masks/limited contact .......and then treated people accordingly including using a phone app that alerts when infected people leave home. Now in the last week they have even seen an uptick or 2nd wave caused by visitors from Europe and the U.S. I know in the U.S. we are way too individually focused to do what's best for the whole, but that's the plan that works. 

I looked some of these charts earlier today. Over time projected deaths have gone from 220K to 97K to 81K. I’ve been hanging out at my home in Maine. I knew ME would be less of an issue than Massachusetts. Today the projected deaths number was cut in half to 115. 

When this is all over it will be interesting to see stats broken down by age, having other prexisting conditions, residential density, race and above and below the poverty line. 

If you look at the graphs it appears people should be back to work some time around June 1st. Back to normal life probably won’t occur until the fall.

Before today’s presser I told a friend I’m guessing later this month shelter in place is extended until May 15th and then extended through the end of the month. The extension to mid May was hinted at today. 

I find it interesting how many people have so much faith in what they read, what they are told and what the chart says. The "experts" are guessing folks, they erring to the side of safety mainly because they are in the middle of career defining moment. This is like the perfect storm and they are the weather channel, there is zero point in acting as if we won't get the max possible snow and probably exceed that by 10%.

Use your head, move forward and for Christ sake stop being soft. This isn't a one size fits all, what is good for NY is not good for Montana - suck it up and take of yourselves. 

old_school,

It isn't so much faith as it is guidance.   There is little margin for error here as this is life or death.   I'm more than willing to listen, or read (any) gov't plan for how to avoid this thing if it makes sense.   So, far nobody has come up with a better plan on turning the tide, so yes I'm going along with our govt's plan.   So far it is Virus 76,000....World 0.   Those numbers would be a lot bigger if our govt had not taken the initial steps it did and when it did.   We barely know how to treat the symptoms never mind come up with a vaccine.   Erring on the side of caution is probably wise.  

I don't think people are being soft but I do think people are pushing their luck and doing stupid things.   I've driven around my community (to get groceries) and I've seen some really, really stupid things.   Crowds of people playing basketball in the public parks.   I've seen some local Country Clubs that are open and people are playing tennis & golf.   My own tennis club asked a few of its members via email  if we should open up because the local Country Clubs are open.  My response...hell no!  Are you kidding me?   For those people making a conscious (stupid) decision to take a large risk to play hoops, golf, tennis, any activity that involves people (besides getting food & essentials) during the height of a worldwide pandemic I wish them well, but I'm convinced this is Darwin's theory of evolution at work.  There is only one choice at this time...stay at home!

As always, JMO.  Stay safe!

I don't live in a huge metro area, relatively speaking, but it is our state capital city, and home to a large state university medical school and hospital with some 10,000 employees, where my wife works. So I've got a couple of perspectives to provide. #1 - My wife sits on briefings every morning with her faculty and staff and today they were told they have three days worth of surgical masks remaining with some ridiculous number on order but no ETA due to these things being purchased out from under them by private companies, who then turn around and negotiate a price to sell them back to the public hospitals, who were outbid initially. #2 - Her department chair - a good friend of mine - who is a very established and well-respected cardiac physician in his late sixties, who should be cruising out to research and retirement, is on a [brutal] rotating schedule of intubation duty i.e. administering breathing tubes for those who become critical. I have a dozen more anecdotes from the past few weeks I could share but the moral of this story is that, before we blanket situations with armchair quarterback generalities, and accuse medical professionals and scientists of "guessing," we might want to educate ourselves by actually talking to the folks on the front lines and try give them what support we can....even if that is no more than erring on the side of caution.

Old_school, how about we re-frame toughness and softness this way?

Tough are the medical professionals who are working overtime to help save sick people.  Those people, right now, are being unbearably tough.  Scientists who are working day and night to find cures and vaccines, they are tough. 

Epidemiologists who produce models based on the data that they have, trying to help everyone as best they can, knowing that they will be criticized when new data becomes available and their old models are out of date - those people are pretty tough, too.  Kind of like umpires who can't quite see what happened, but need to make the call on the spot anyway, even if replay later shows they were wrong.

The rest of us need to be tough and disciplined, and follow the guidelines that are the best that we have right now, based on data that changes daily, for the good of everyone in the country.  It's not about you, it's about everyone. 

It's really sad not to be playing baseball, but we have to suck it up and deal with it.  Be mentally tough.  Train as best you can, on your own, knowing that baseball will be back.

Who, in this picture, is being soft?

I think we need to take things week by week.  The kids need hope.  Shoot, the parents need hope!   We live in a low population state, my husband is high risk and we are still hoping there will be some kind of baseball this summer.  It may get canceled.  My husband will have to stay in the house longer than everyone and he will probably being wearing a mask longer than everyone once he goes out.  We are used to skipping games because we hear there are a lot of people with the flu,  wiping down our hotel room, not seeing the grandkids for weeks because they have some kind of crud going on.  We will need to train our kids to be vigilant once we send them to school/college.  If there were baseball teams that wiped down equipment between players to keep each other from getting regular flu, I think we can do it for Covid 19 too.   Even if it is totally safe and back to normal maybe this is a good practice to get them used to.   We are having a double whammy in our state because we are an oil producer and it is pretty depressing.  Most of us can’t work from home.    Part of Montana’s problem was their worst county has a college/ski resort town and everyone was going there for spring break, it got ahead of them.  Same in Idaho and Colorado.   I think we need to remember that just because someone needs to go to the hospital for this it doesn’t necessarily mean they need a vent.   It is scary, but we can all wear masks and was wash our hands and stay in as much as possible.   Hang in there!

Old School - you wrote a few weeks back that there was zero chance of a HS baseball season. Perhaps you were speaking about locally but your new post this morning highlights that there should be differences based on where you are located.  I am going to agree with the statement that your local situations should come into play and the solution for Montana isn't necessarily the same for NYC or Tri State area.  As for HS baseball - our state (CT - in a hot area that is getting cooler) and conference still think it can get in a stub season - 10 game seasons and double elim conf tourney (prob not states).  This is not pie in the sky - it's following the facts on the ground.    Some posters out here say there will be no NFL season let alone MLB but I am sure everyone has seen MLB starting to plan how to get the season going.    We are all adapting.

I have come to realize that I do not think we live in a society that values life.  We say we do but that is very limited.  I do not plan to get into a political, religious, or philosophical debate.  But would love to hear your opinions.  The numbers on so many levels about our society do not show that we value the life of others from the unborn to the sick to the elderly to the vulnerable.  There are those who value it on some level but do not on other levels.  They value it in relationship to their immediate family but do not for others.  I do not consider myself and deep thinker but some of the varying posts I read on here and other places make me wonder where we truly are as a society.

PitchingFan posted:

I have come to realize that I do not think we live in a society that values life.  We say we do but that is very limited.  I do not plan to get into a political, religious, or philosophical debate.  But would love to hear your opinions.  The numbers on so many levels about our society do not show that we value the life of others from the unborn to the sick to the elderly to the vulnerable.  There are those who value it on some level but do not on other levels.  They value it in relationship to their immediate family but do not for others.  I do not consider myself and deep thinker but some of the varying posts I read on here and other places make me wonder where we truly are as a society.

I don't disagree with much of that at all, and I don't think it's necessarily anyone's fault. Our society and lifestyle is pretty much focused on "me" and family only. We are artificially disconnected from the world and country, really only seeing things on the news and social media. 

But not valuing life doesn't mean your own life has to be ruined. What many of us are saying is that the response can be local. People's livelihood and future in Montana (for example) doesn't have to be impacted so negatively because of some hotspot states thousands of miles away. 

People - the virus doesn't know state or geographical boundaries. It is spread by transmission from person to person. There could be a cluster of cases developed next week that could take out most of the population of Montana and be much worse than NY on a per capita basis. This could easily happen because sadly, we don't have a coordinated, universal testing program in this country. 1 person visits someplace outside Montana and brings it back but doesn't have symptoms so they don't know it. That person goes to a large (relatively speaking) gathering in Montana and spreads it around. Then they spread it around because they think "we're not in a hotspot like NY", we can do whatever we want. At that point it's too late. Again, quarantine everyone for a period of time, TEST EVERYONE like S. Korea, and for those that HAVE to go out, wear a mask, gloves and social distance. If we ALL sacrifice a little now it won't drag out and we won't have to sacrifice so much later. But if we are self-centered and think "it won't happen here", we'll be in this for the long haul. Please, it's not about you - it's about everyone. I know this is a heavy message and I hate posting it here on this board, but we are all in this together, and we all need to understand the facts of the situation and ALL act accordingly. 

Man, this board will never be the same.  One poster basically telling another, let me know what you think once your wife or kid dies; people don't value life because they want to go to work and provide for their families, etc.

People have different views, that's what a free society promotes.  Yet, we cast stones and question when they don't match yours.

CTbballDad posted:

Man, this board will never be the same.  One poster basically telling another, let me know what you think once your wife or kid dies; people don't value life because they want to go to work and provide for their families, etc.

People have different views, that's what a free society promotes.  Yet, we cast stones and question when they don't match yours.

This x 100

CTbballDad posted:

Man, this board will never be the same.  One poster basically telling another, let me know what you think once your wife or kid dies; people don't value life because they want to go to work and provide for their families, etc.

People have different views, that's what a free society promotes.  Yet, we cast stones and question when they don't match yours.

Opinions are great, let's stick with facts when we're dealing with life and death. I'm not saying you aren't - just encouraging everyone to try to take the emotion out of it, work with the facts, and do the right things to the best of our abilities.

2 days ago Montana had 281 cases and 6 deaths.

This morning, 300 cases, 6 deaths.  I can just see the eyes rolling, big deal! BUT IT IS!  6 people is 6 too many.

Yeah, sure, they don't have the issues that NY, FL , CA, LA, WA and others have but arent we supposed to be in this together?   

My god people, 11 thousand have died in the US in a very, very short period of time!  

CTbballDad posted:

Man, this board will never be the same.  One poster basically telling another, let me know what you think once your wife or kid dies; people don't value life because they want to go to work and provide for their families, etc

Baseball unites people from very different backgrounds, isn't that why it is America's game?  This board is made up of a more diverse population than most people see in their daily lives, I would guess.  In my experience, most people are pretty careful not to talk politics or religion at baseball events, and that is a good thing.  Perhaps in this time of crisis, we do talk about these things, maybe we learn from each other.  This thread has nothing to do with baseball, and that's fine, as long as these ideas are confined to this thread, imo.  

PitchingFan posted:

I have come to realize that I do not think we live in a society that values life.  We say we do but that is very limited.  I do not plan to get into a political, religious, or philosophical debate.  But would love to hear your opinions.  The numbers on so many levels about our society do not show that we value the life of others from the unborn to the sick to the elderly to the vulnerable.  There are those who value it on some level but do not on other levels.  They value it in relationship to their immediate family but do not for others.  I do not consider myself and deep thinker but some of the varying posts I read on here and other places make me wonder where we truly are as a society.

I agree.   Back in the day, people knew a percentage of their children would die from things we find are common and curable now.  I can not imagine it.   Do I think we should all just wear masks and get back out there now? No. But one thing I have learned from having an immune suppressed husband is WE have to do what we can to keep him safe.   Our friends, baseball family, church and employees all look out for us.    Life is precious.   I  think we think everything is curable, fixable.  We don’t know what real suffering is, real sacrifice.   People don’t want to be inconvenienced.  We all have to make changes to keep our loved ones and others safe from here on out.   We all need to act like everyone is immune compromised.  Next summer, you may not think you need a mask, but maybe there is a grandma that wants to go to her grandsons baseball game.   Will you have a mask handy to put on so she is safer?   We can’t become a third world country over this though either.  We have to work.   Maybe the question isn’t do we value life, but what do we think of death?   We have already been in the house for a month, I am ready to get on with LIFE, with a mask and hand sanitizer of course.  Only a few more weeks...

old_school posted:

I find it interesting how many people have so much faith in what they read, what they are told and what the chart says. The "experts" are guessing folks, they erring to the side of safety mainly because they are in the middle of career defining moment. This is like the perfect storm and they are the weather channel, there is zero point in acting as if we won't get the max possible snow and probably exceed that by 10%.

Use your head, move forward and for Christ sake stop being soft. This isn't a one size fits all, what is good for NY is not good for Montana - suck it up and take of yourselves. 

 When sports starting shutting down I sensed what was coming. I left MA for my home in ME. Based on the county numbers in ME I have a .0006 chance of catching COVID. Without calculating age and health into the calculation I have a .000017 chance of dying. Yet the state is in shutdown. There’s only been one death under the age of 70 and/or other serious medical issues. It would be more dangerous to cross a busy street on foot.

What I just posted doesn’t apply to everywhere. I left the Boston area for a reason. 

I pulled a muscle in my back recently. I messaged my doctor’s office Friday for next step after going through a container of Aleve. He didn’t get back to me. I called yesterday ... “I’m sorry we didn’t get back to you. We’ve been working twelve hours a day doing COVID tests. But I can fit you in this afternoon.”

In other words, “Do you want to come near this place? Suck it it up buddy, we’re busy here.” His office is in Mass General Hospital. 100+ of the medical staff have become infected.