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I was able to be a part of a discussion recently that I will refer to as the JUCO discount. Basically what the person was saying is that JUCO players are not looked at as having proved themselves because of the level of competition they face and that is why they are taken in the draft where they are. He stated that scouts are not able to get a true assessment of their playing ability and whether or not it would translate to a higher level. Needless to say I was a little perplexed because HS players have the same type of challenge, if not more challenging, because a HS coach has to go with what he is given from the area whereas a JUCO coach can go and recruit from anywhere. And these guys are two and sometimes three years more mature than what a HS player might face. Can someone explain to me what these gentlemen were saying?

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Results vary by player, Bryce Harper was a 1st round pick before he went to a JC.  Apparently teams are more willing to gamble on the projection of a young HS player then an older JC player  Additionally, the "elite" HS player likely played on summer teams that exposed him to high level competition making the pro teams feel confident in their assessment/projection. 

 

The pitching in a good JC league is not comparable to most D1 leagues.  Most of the starters on my son's JC team threw low 80s, the starters on his ACC team threw 90-95.  More "hitting" validation value is placed on the ACC play then JC play.

 

 

The top HS picks sign out of HS for the most part.  The lower picks usually go either to a 4 year school or a juco.  You have 3 years to improve at a 4year school and only 1 at a juco.  Looking at this years draft I saw many Juco players improve their draft round by going to one year of Juco.  A player not drafted out of HS will not be a high round pick in 1 year of Juco it's not logical.  I do see juco kids drafted out of HS move up some in one year, more in year 2 and then even higher after a year at a 4 year school.  By the way if the average pitcher was topping out in the mid80's it was a weak juco conference.

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