hshuler posted:

I’m hearing that the draft is possibly going to be cut down to ten rounds and everyone after that could sign as a free agent with a max of $10K signing bonus.

If this is true, it will greatly impact college baseball over the next couple of years. 

 

MLB is telling baseball players something in that there is only slot money for the first ten rounds. 84% of American MLBers come from the first ten rounds. Another 10% come from 11-20. After round 20 it’s a long shot. I’ll bet most MLBers from after round 20 are late bloomer pitchers. Scouting analytics and metrics are so good now there aren’t many surprises. 

I’m guessing a lot of college coaches right now are playing the part of Joe Isuzu until they know what’s really going on. They’re telling most players what they want to hear. Some they will just tell their time is up. 

Coach, how do you expect to handle next year’s roster issues caused by the virus ... https://youtu.be/TMvFvCvFSVk

Last edited by RJM
collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:
9and7dad posted:
 The coach replied their emphasis will be on bringing the freshmen into the program over returning “Corona Seniors” because the young guys are the future of the program.

What did you expect him to say to the father of an incoming freshman?

Agree, and the father took it with a grain of salt. Just passing story along.

A few weeks before this nightmare, we played UF.  Sully told me the future of every program, should be the incoming freshman.  I believe that to be true, but not necessarily for every program. Many mid D1 programs incoming class are JUCO players that coaches rely upon. Every program is different,  the top programs in the country recruit and sign the top HS players in the country so that they are gone before they are seniors.  JMO.

My point is, we can guess all day and all night what might happen, but coaches will be given the guidelines, and do what they need to keep their job. 

The MLB draft will also determine next year's roster for many programs.

 

 

TPM posted:
collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:
9and7dad posted:
 The coach replied their emphasis will be on bringing the freshmen into the program over returning “Corona Seniors” because the young guys are the future of the program.

What did you expect him to say to the father of an incoming freshman?

Agree, and the father took it with a grain of salt. Just passing story along.

The MLB draft will also determine next year's roster for many programs.

 

 

It always does...

TheRightScuff posted:

Sources: MLB & the MLB Players Association have the framework of an agreement that could be finalized as soon as today. Discussed terms on the draft: - A draft sometime in July - Likely 10 rounds, possibly 5 - Bonus deferment: 10% upfront, 45% in July '21, 45% in July (@kileymcd)

Could see this increasing the # of players desiring a return to their college careers if they were mid- to late-round targets expecting more than $10k signing bonuses. Increasing D1 roster size a little would help. Of course, hard enough as it is to play even 35 players, much less any more than that, but I'd like to see the D1 council offer that flexibility to the schools. 

The only problem with this is draft eligible players lose “leverage” with each passing year. So, they probably would not even get $10K the following year. 

hshuler posted:
TheRightScuff posted:

Sources: MLB & the MLB Players Association have the framework of an agreement that could be finalized as soon as today. Discussed terms on the draft: - A draft sometime in July - Likely 10 rounds, possibly 5 - Bonus deferment: 10% upfront, 45% in July '21, 45% in July (@kileymcd)

Could see this increasing the # of players desiring a return to their college careers if they were mid- to late-round targets expecting more than $10k signing bonuses. Increasing D1 roster size a little would help. Of course, hard enough as it is to play even 35 players, much less any more than that, but I'd like to see the D1 council offer that flexibility to the schools. 

The only problem with this is draft eligible players lose “leverage” with each passing year. So, they probably would not even get $10K the following year. 

Remember the kid from Mississippi State, believe he was the SEC (perhaps NCAA) all-time hits leader when he graduated as a senior and was drafted in the 4th round, signing bonus basically enough to buy him a truck. This is not a new problem, happens every year.

hshuler posted:
TheRightScuff posted:

Sources: MLB & the MLB Players Association have the framework of an agreement that could be finalized as soon as today. Discussed terms on the draft: - A draft sometime in July - Likely 10 rounds, possibly 5 - Bonus deferment: 10% upfront, 45% in July '21, 45% in July (@kileymcd)

Could see this increasing the # of players desiring a return to their college careers if they were mid- to late-round targets expecting more than $10k signing bonuses. Increasing D1 roster size a little would help. Of course, hard enough as it is to play even 35 players, much less any more than that, but I'd like to see the D1 council offer that flexibility to the schools. 

The only problem with this is draft eligible players lose “leverage” with each passing year. So, they probably would not even get $10K the following year. 

Again, not the NCAA’s problem. 

I think we can all agree that the following groups should be accounted for, in order of importance:  Seniors, remainder of current college players, and finally, to a much lesser extent, incoming NLI-Freshman.  Any decision will have a direct impact on all three groups.

However, one group that hasn't been mentioned is the 2021 recruiting class.  I believe you will see a MAJOR shakeup and movement in the P5 2021 recruits.  If senior's are the only one to get an extra year, then it may be minimal, but if all players are eligible for an extra year, then team needs may change drastically by the time signing day comes around late this year.   We may also see football like recruiting come this summer/fall for the 2021 class because of top guys becoming available since teams needs are changing.

JMO, but certainly 2021 may be the most affected once it's all said and done.

Hey, is there any chance that if we're all going to continue to post on this thread, that we can at least get the spelling in the title corrected?  :-)

Last edited by T_Thomas

Just looked over a few statistics pages from SEC schools.  I will put UT's. 

General Redshirt Rules

Players must abstain completely from competition to preserve a season of eligibility during a redshirt year. Players who appear in even one inning of one baseball game will lose a season of eligibility, unless they later gain a hardship waiver for injury, illness, family crisis, natural disaster or other calamity. Players in redshirt years are bound by all NCAA rules, including those regulations designed to ensure academic progress toward graduation.

Hardship Waiver

Players who suffer a season-ending injury or illness during the first half of the spring season may be eligible for a hardship waiver if they haven't played in more than 30 percent of their team's games. Playing time missed during fall baseball does not factor into the hardship calculations. Each player must apply to the NCAA for a hardship waiver and document his case. If the NCAA grants the waiver, that player will receive a do-over for that season -- effectively creating a "medical redshirt" year.

So if a player has not played in 30% of the team's games they are eligible to apply for hardship waiver for natural disaster or calamity.  this has to fall under that situation. 

UT played 17 games this season.  Anyone who played 5.1 innings or more is not eligible to fall under the old rule (assuming the NCAA chooses to do nothing different on Monday).  But with that the entire freshman class would be eligible to come back other than 1 player who will not need it because he should be drafted after 3 years high.  Only 4 total pitchers pitched in more than 5 games so all pitchers would be able to add a year.  If they only take top 10 rounds of regular money, then only 2 players would fall in that category by PG rankings and draft projections.  So it will still be a logjam.  I cannot see why anyone would not apply for the redshirt year even they do not end up using it.  You are talking 20 of the 35 not eligible to get redshirt year this year but 15 plus a few over the 35 so about 21 players will get redshirt year.  That will still make life interesting and most are similar.  Vanderbilt only has 15 players that would not be eligible to apply for redshirt year.  My thought is they will apply just to possibly allow for extra year on the back end in case they want to transfer for last year or two.

If many keep pace, they would eligible to graduate after 3 years.  If they get this year back, then they would have 4 more years.  I know they plan not to use them but would have them.  Just thinking outloud.

T_Thomas posted:

Hey, is there any chance that if we're all going to continue to post on this thread, that we can at least get the spelling in the title corrected?  :-)

Done.  My bad.

TPM posted:
T_Thomas posted:

Hey, is there any chance that if we're all going to continue to post on this thread, that we can at least get the spelling in the title corrected?  :-)

Done.  My bad.

That's awesome!  I'm easily amused :-)

collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:
hshuler posted:
TheRightScuff posted:

Sources: MLB & the MLB Players Association have the framework of an agreement that could be finalized as soon as today. Discussed terms on the draft: - A draft sometime in July - Likely 10 rounds, possibly 5 - Bonus deferment: 10% upfront, 45% in July '21, 45% in July (@kileymcd)

Could see this increasing the # of players desiring a return to their college careers if they were mid- to late-round targets expecting more than $10k signing bonuses. Increasing D1 roster size a little would help. Of course, hard enough as it is to play even 35 players, much less any more than that, but I'd like to see the D1 council offer that flexibility to the schools. 

The only problem with this is draft eligible players lose “leverage” with each passing year. So, they probably would not even get $10K the following year. 

Remember the kid from Mississippi State, believe he was the SEC (perhaps NCAA) all-time hits leader when he graduated as a senior and was drafted in the 4th round, signing bonus basically enough to buy him a truck. This is not a new problem, happens every year.

This was discussed last week, or before. He did not take the slot money. 10k I think?

If the NCAA gives another year and the MLB goes through with payment deferment, you'd have to think that a lot of players would go back to school.  You may see players go the Carter Stewart route and head to Japan.  

As far as MLB goes, keep in mind that there has been essentially no spring training, so they have to keep whatever draft they will have small

MLB lite edition!

For some reason I cannot get used this new set up here on HSBBW.

 

Over on D1 baseball, Kendall (That's  with 2 lls) wrote a great article discussing what we have been. 

Vote is Monday.

TPM posted:

Over on D1 baseball, Kendall (That's  with 2 lls) wrote a great article discussing what we have been. 

Vote is Monday.

Edit You can access through D1baseball or through his twitter page.

TPM posted:
collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:
hshuler posted:
TheRightScuff posted:

Sources: MLB & the MLB Players Association have the framework of an agreement that could be finalized as soon as today. Discussed terms on the draft: - A draft sometime in July - Likely 10 rounds, possibly 5 - Bonus deferment: 10% upfront, 45% in July '21, 45% in July (@kileymcd)

Could see this increasing the # of players desiring a return to their college careers if they were mid- to late-round targets expecting more than $10k signing bonuses. Increasing D1 roster size a little would help. Of course, hard enough as it is to play even 35 players, much less any more than that, but I'd like to see the D1 council offer that flexibility to the schools. 

The only problem with this is draft eligible players lose “leverage” with each passing year. So, they probably would not even get $10K the following year. 

Remember the kid from Mississippi State, believe he was the SEC (perhaps NCAA) all-time hits leader when he graduated as a senior and was drafted in the 4th round, signing bonus basically enough to buy him a truck. This is not a new problem, happens every year.

This was discussed last week, or before. He did not take the slot money. 10k I think?

Signed for $20K...slot was $487K...that's the value the MLB put on his ability to make the MLB...they knew he had no leverage and took him to the cleaners.

A 10 round draft is the worst thing that could happen to the NCAA. A shortened draft will just create a bigger backlog of players on college rosters - which is already the problem with granting eligibility waivers. Juniors who signed for 125k in rounds 10-40 are just going to go back to school and finish their senior year. Why sign for 10k as a junior when you can sign for 5k with a degree? Why sign for 10k when you could wait until the normal 40 round draft the following year? Unless that is the direction the plan on moving in for the foreseeable future. 

What I think should happen - college athletes should continue using their eligibility on schedule. When their eligibility runs out they should be able to apply and be granted a redshirt season for the lost time. Many will not choose to use said year, some will be drafted, some will quit baseball altogether. Kids will use 5 years if they know they have it. But kids will use their 4 and start to think about life after baseball if you push it off and make it optional. Between the draft, optional waivers, and attrition it will sort itself out within a year or two. Seniors get nothing out of this but I'm sure an arrangement could be made with the exception that they were enrolled in grad school full time. 

The biggest winners are JUCOs and Indy Ball. If Jucos were smart, they would be making calls in advance to scoop up the top released underclassmen. If Indy teams were smart they would be calling local schools and asking for their seniors. 

Regardless of the outcome, this hurts the teams at the top way more than the teams at the bottom. Rosters are worked out to a science for schools that have 12+ incoming and 6+ drafted. It's going to be a headache at the top. As you go down the line there will be more drop downs from the higher level programs. 

Jake Mangum was the Miss State player who signed for 20K out of the 4th round after senior year. The previous year he received a call from an organization offering 300K if they drafted him. He told them he was returning for senior year. 

I don’t believe waiting until being 23 years old to come out is wise from a baseball standpoint. But his family is very well off. His father might have told him if he wanted to stay in school he would cover the loss. Mangum did pass on receiving scholarship money his last two seasons so there would be more money to sign other talent. 

A ten round draft would allow more players to be a free agent and pick the organization they would be more likely to rise through. Given 84% of American players come from the top ten rounds the odds of making it are already long not going in the top ten. Increase your odds with free agent options. 

Last edited by RJM
PABaseball posted:

What I think should happen - college athletes should continue using their eligibility on schedule. When their eligibility runs out they should be able to apply and be granted a redshirt season for the lost time. Many will not choose to use said year, some will be drafted, some will quit baseball altogether. Kids will use 5 years if they know they have it. But kids will use their 4 and start to think about life after baseball if you push it off and make it optional. Between the draft, optional waivers, and attrition it will sort itself out within a year or two. Seniors get nothing out of this but I'm sure an arrangement could be made with the exception that they were enrolled in grad school full time. 

 

Not a bad idea, especially because by the time the decision to exercise that additional year of eligibility roles around (for the younger guys), they will have a better understanding of their potential for the next level, whether a scholarship is even an option for them as a grad-transfer, and be able to make a better informed decision to exercise the option. 

One thing, depending on how you look at it, is the guys who come back and do a grad year to use that eligibility, and presumably completes a grad degree, will potentially be avoiding an ugly job market.

PABaseball posted:

A 10 round draft is the worst thing that could happen to the NCAA. A shortened draft will just create a bigger backlog of players on college rosters - which is already the problem with granting eligibility waivers. Juniors who signed for 125k in rounds 10-40 are just going to go back to school and finish their senior year. Why sign for 10k as a junior when you can sign for 5k with a degree? Why sign for 10k when you could wait until the normal 40 round draft the following year? Unless that is the direction the plan on moving in for the foreseeable future. 

What I think should happen - college athletes should continue using their eligibility on schedule. When their eligibility runs out they should be able to apply and be granted a redshirt season for the lost time. Many will not choose to use said year, some will be drafted, some will quit baseball altogether. Kids will use 5 years if they know they have it. But kids will use their 4 and start to think about life after baseball if you push it off and make it optional. Between the draft, optional waivers, and attrition it will sort itself out within a year or two. Seniors get nothing out of this but I'm sure an arrangement could be made with the exception that they were enrolled in grad school full time. 

The biggest winners are JUCOs and Indy Ball. If Jucos were smart, they would be making calls in advance to scoop up the top released underclassmen. If Indy teams were smart they would be calling local schools and asking for their seniors. 

Regardless of the outcome, this hurts the teams at the top way more than the teams at the bottom. Rosters are worked out to a science for schools that have 12+ incoming and 6+ drafted. It's going to be a headache at the top. As you go down the line there will be more drop downs from the higher level programs. 

Good points but when coaches were planning on guys leaving and have committed the money elsewhere, who pays for them to return?

hshuler posted:
PABaseball posted:

A 10 round draft is the worst thing that could happen to the NCAA. A shortened draft will just create a bigger backlog of players on college rosters - which is already the problem with granting eligibility waivers. Juniors who signed for 125k in rounds 10-40 are just going to go back to school and finish their senior year. Why sign for 10k as a junior when you can sign for 5k with a degree? Why sign for 10k when you could wait until the normal 40 round draft the following year? Unless that is the direction the plan on moving in for the foreseeable future. 

What I think should happen - college athletes should continue using their eligibility on schedule. When their eligibility runs out they should be able to apply and be granted a redshirt season for the lost time. Many will not choose to use said year, some will be drafted, some will quit baseball altogether. Kids will use 5 years if they know they have it. But kids will use their 4 and start to think about life after baseball if you push it off and make it optional. Between the draft, optional waivers, and attrition it will sort itself out within a year or two. Seniors get nothing out of this but I'm sure an arrangement could be made with the exception that they were enrolled in grad school full time. 

The biggest winners are JUCOs and Indy Ball. If Jucos were smart, they would be making calls in advance to scoop up the top released underclassmen. If Indy teams were smart they would be calling local schools and asking for their seniors. 

Regardless of the outcome, this hurts the teams at the top way more than the teams at the bottom. Rosters are worked out to a science for schools that have 12+ incoming and 6+ drafted. It's going to be a headache at the top. As you go down the line there will be more drop downs from the higher level programs. 

Good points but when coaches were planning on guys leaving and have committed the money elsewhere, who pays for them to return?

No guarantees in life, why do they think they are entitled to any additional scholarship money? They received their scholarship dollars for their senior year already, nobody took that away. There is no real financial loss and no reason they need to be "made whole." Not sure why the potential of additional eligibility is being confused with scholarship money. They are completely separate issues.

In my view, if they want to play they come in without scholarship money and are essentially walk-ons.

Last edited by collegebaseballrecruitingguide
hshuler posted:
PABaseball posted:

What I think should happen - college athletes should continue using their eligibility on schedule. When their eligibility runs out they should be able to apply and be granted a redshirt season for the lost time. Many will not choose to use said year, some will be drafted, some will quit baseball altogether. Kids will use 5 years if they know they have it. But kids will use their 4 and start to think about life after baseball if you push it off and make it optional. Between the draft, optional waivers, and attrition it will sort itself out within a year or two. Seniors get nothing out of this but I'm sure an arrangement could be made with the exception that they were enrolled in grad school full time. 

Good points but when coaches were planning on guys leaving and have committed the money elsewhere, who pays for them to return?

I would imagine this is where the coaches get creative. The problem isn't necessarily the 11.7 cap - that has always been an issue to navigate around, it is the 11.7 and more than 27 scholarship players that becomes an issue. 

I imagine the pitch to graduating college seniors would be - we didn't expect you to come back and don't have any money. You can come back and pay full boat or you can walk. 

I imagine the pitch to HS seniors would be - we have less money because these 4 are coming back. I can't give you anything year one, but year 2,3,4 you will get x,y,z for your loyalty. And when some of them get drafted or transfer the school wins because the deal was backloaded. 

2 seniors sticking around doesn't create a huge problem. The 4 juniors and two high schoolers who didn't get drafted do though. Problem isn't that a few want to stay, it's that some who were expected to leave did not show enough in 14 games. 

 

adbono posted:
hshuler posted:

As I have stated before, I think most college seniors who are drafted or who can sign as a FA will start their pro careers. 

I think NCAA would be wise to wait until MLB makes a definitive decision before announcing a ruling. 

Agree, but MLB is smarter than the NCAA and I think they are waiting for NCAA to announce their decision first so they can figure out how to take advantage of it - if possible 

A swing and a miss!

collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted

No guarantees in life, why do they think they are entitled to any additional scholarship money? They received their scholarship dollars for their senior year already, nobody took that away. There is no real financial loss and no reason they need to be "made whole." Not sure why the potential of additional eligibility is being confused with scholarship money. They are completely separate issues.

In my view, if they want to play they come in without scholarship money and are essentially walk-ons.

Important point being missed by others.  Seniors only will get another year of eligibility, not more $$$$.

 

PABaseball posted:
hshuler posted:
PABaseball posted:

What I think should happen - college athletes should continue using their eligibility on schedule. When their eligibility runs out they should be able to apply and be granted a redshirt season for the lost time. Many will not choose to use said year, some will be drafted, some will quit baseball altogether. Kids will use 5 years if they know they have it. But kids will use their 4 and start to think about life after baseball if you push it off and make it optional. Between the draft, optional waivers, and attrition it will sort itself out within a year or two. Seniors get nothing out of this but I'm sure an arrangement could be made with the exception that they were enrolled in grad school full time. 

Good points but when coaches were planning on guys leaving and have committed the money elsewhere, who pays for them to return?

 

I imagine the pitch to HS seniors would be - we have less money because these 4 are coming back. I can't give you anything year one, but year 2,3,4 you will get x,y,z for your loyalty. And when some of them get drafted or transfer the school wins because the deal was backloaded. 

 

How do they do that with NLIs signed?

We are told the talk, as of later today, was it's likely a 5 round draft.  This is going to be a mess.

Go44dad posted:
adbono posted:
hshuler posted:

As I have stated before, I think most college seniors who are drafted or who can sign as a FA will start their pro careers. 

I think NCAA would be wise to wait until MLB makes a definitive decision before announcing a ruling. 

Agree, but MLB is smarter than the NCAA and I think they are waiting for NCAA to announce their decision first so they can figure out how to take advantage of it - if possible 

A swing and a miss!

I have had swing and miss stuff all my life 

PABaseball posted:
hshuler posted:
PABaseball posted:

What I think should happen - college athletes should continue using their eligibility on schedule. When their eligibility runs out they should be able to apply and be granted a redshirt season for the lost time. Many will not choose to use said year, some will be drafted, some will quit baseball altogether. Kids will use 5 years if they know they have it. But kids will use their 4 and start to think about life after baseball if you push it off and make it optional. Between the draft, optional waivers, and attrition it will sort itself out within a year or two. Seniors get nothing out of this but I'm sure an arrangement could be made with the exception that they were enrolled in grad school full time. 

Good points but when coaches were planning on guys leaving and have committed the money elsewhere, who pays for them to return?

I would imagine this is where the coaches get creative. The problem isn't necessarily the 11.7 cap - that has always been an issue to navigate around, it is the 11.7 and more than 27 scholarship players that becomes an issue. 

I imagine the pitch to graduating college seniors would be - we didn't expect you to come back and don't have any money. You can come back and pay full boat or you can walk. 

I imagine the pitch to HS seniors would be - we have less money because these 4 are coming back. I can't give you anything year one, but year 2,3,4 you will get x,y,z for your loyalty. And when some of them get drafted or transfer the school wins because the deal was backloaded. 

2 seniors sticking around doesn't create a huge problem. The 4 juniors and two high schoolers who didn't get drafted do though. Problem isn't that a few want to stay, it's that some who were expected to leave did not show enough in 14 games. 

 

High school seniors have already signed their NLI and Athletic Aid agreement. Only “pitch” from coach is your not going to play next year, redshirt or give up scholarship, transfer to JUCO and get better. Then maybe I’ll come get you in 2021. 

And with 5 round MLB draft, coach will have lots of roster headaches with many more 2020’s showing up that they thought would get drafted. 

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