Kyler Murray

He’s a fool if he goes NFL...he’s exactly the kind of QB that breaks easily.

I can understand it if he really gets drafted top15 or so. Top15 nfl pick gets a guaranteed 13-15m or so, while now he only has a guaranteed 4.6m.

If he becomes a star he makes more in baseball but he first needs to get through 3-4 minor league years and then 3-4 minimum pay years depending how service time is manipulated.

Also while he can easily bust as a QB he can also bust in baseball, his hit tool is raw for a college bat and plenty of elite athlete have failed to hit in the majors.

He has a high bust risk in both sports and probably chose the higher floor.

I think the NFL is his best move (financially), but I'm more interested in the baseball side of this. Let's be optimistic and say he makes in to the big league in 2 years. That is two years of an MLB roster spot being taken up. It also sets up a precedent. High ranking draftees will want what he got. More money. I'm not sure how the A's could possible agree to this. There is also a lot on the line for them. From what I understand they won't be compensated with another pick so there is a lot on the line for them as well. 

I’m in agreement with this article ...

“Forget the minor leagues, bus trips, and the possibility of never making it big in MLB. In the NFL, you play now, get paid now, become a star now. And you can make big bucks as an NFL QB.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sp...fu7yNrboO/story.html

I hope he chooses baseball. I think the A’s will offer him a MLB contract tonight for $10/11M and he will take it. He will be on their 40 tomorrow. MLB wants him and may bend a little on something to help the A’s. 

He just picked the wrong GM to ask for a lot of money.

He is 21 as we speak and 22 in August.  If you assume even 2 years in the minors he will be near 30 before he gets his shot at free agency.  On the other hand as we saw this week with Betts and DeGrom arbitration can yield a $20MM contract but we are talking the apex of the food chain.  If he becomes an everyday CF that is above average in the field and a competent hitter with 20 HR power he can probably expect $7 to $10MM in arbitration.

My guess is making the majors and being everyday CF will depend on hitting breaking ball.  A lot of guys have busted out on that.  That NFL signing bonus is guaranteed money.  If he makes it as a starter he will probably earn another $150MM playing football.  

If he thinks he is Russell Wilson play football.  If he thinks he is Ricky Henderson play baseball.  My guess is Wilson is the likely and better bet.

There is no shortcut to MLB.  He'll need at least 2 years in the minors if not more, to learn how to hit pro pitching.  Even Trout needed that time, and let's face it Murray isn't Trout.

If he thinks he will be a first round pick, it is almost a no brainer to take the football route. Even if he is out of the league in three years, he will clear around 10 million and he'd have cleared a lucrative sponsorship deal. After that first round is up and you move towards the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds in the draft, the money starts running a lot thinner. It's tough to pass that up when 3 months from now he will be riding a bus for 7hrs making $1500 a month. Baseball money is not that good until you establish yourself as a league average + player. Then it is gold. 

I'm just interested to see what the A's do. It doesn't seem like there is a scenario where they come out winners

Btw i could see him taking the tebow route and still trying baseball if he busts at football.

Tebow was too old and too far removed from baseball to make it at 30 at the time but if murray quits football after 3 years at age 24 he could still have a chance.

PABaseball posted:

I think the NFL is his best move (financially), but I'm more interested in the baseball side of this. Let's be optimistic and say he makes in to the big league in 2 years. That is two years of an MLB roster spot being taken up. It also sets up a precedent. High ranking draftees will want what he got. More money. I'm not sure how the A's could possible agree to this. There is also a lot on the line for them. From what I understand they won't be compensated with another pick so there is a lot on the line for them as well. 

Also not allowed to sign him to an extension  now I think as it would be seen as circumventing the bonus pool.

If there is one thing that is increasingly apparent is that the owners in baseball are much more disciplined about throwing money around than they once were.  The bonus pool for rookies, battle to keep Milb baseball salaries low and the seeming end of long term big money free agent deals for mid career above average players indicate this.

Baseball is probably willing to lose this one to keep financial discipline.

Dominik85 posted:

PABaseball posted:

I think the NFL is his best move (financially), but I'm more interested in the baseball side of this. Let's be optimistic and say he makes in to the big league in 2 years. That is two years of an MLB roster spot being taken up. It also sets up a precedent. High ranking draftees will want what he got. More money. I'm not sure how the A's could possible agree to this. There is also a lot on the line for them. From what I understand they won't be compensated with another pick so there is a lot on the line for them as well. 

Also not allowed to sign him to an extension  now I think as it would be seen as circumventing the bonus pool.

That is an MLB/Commissioner decision as to whether a "wink and nod" agreement was in place when he originally signed.  And the MLB wants him.  I think it depends more on the pushback to the commissioner from the team owner's other than the A's.

luv baseball posted:

If there is one thing that is increasingly apparent is that the owners in baseball are much more disciplined about throwing money around than they once were.  The bonus pool for rookies, battle to keep Milb baseball salaries low and the seeming end of long term big money free agent deals for mid career above average players indicate this.

Baseball is probably willing to lose this one to keep financial discipline.

They are definitely smarter about their money.  And players are MLB ready younger than in the past.  Couple that with the worst union in sports and the owner's are making out.  Specifically allowing a salary cap (titled Luxury Tax) while at the same time ignoring the the biggest prize the owner's have, 6+ years of control of a player.  The players with the service time are only looking at what benefits them, and the younger union members fall in line, bc they are "happy to be there".

I don't see the A's paying that kind of money....but I also don't understand how MLB just let's them change a rule to pay him $15 mil if that's what he wants to do.  If they let this go for Murray, what's gonna happen when the guy picked #1 next year says I want $25 mil?   You can't pick and choose players because they are a "big name".  I can't imagine the other owners are going to be ok with this deal.   I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

Buckeye 2015 posted:

I don't see the A's paying that kind of money....but I also don't understand how MLB just let's them change a rule to pay him $15 mil if that's what he wants to do.  If they let this go for Murray, what's gonna happen when the guy picked #1 next year says I want $25 mil?   You can't pick and choose players because they are a "big name".  I can't imagine the other owners are going to be ok with this deal.   I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

My understanding of the rule regarding bonus pools, is that if there was an agreement in place for more money before signing him to his $4.x M draft deal, that is a violation as determined by MLB.  If A's sign him to a MLB deal now, and MLB does not object, the deal would be valid.  By their actions and involvement so far, MLB wants him.

My understanding is that MLB sent their marketing staff to meet with Murray's representatives today.  That's from Jeff Passan/ESPN guy this morning.

Dominik85 posted:

Btw i could see him taking the tebow route and still trying baseball if he busts at football.

Tebow was too old and too far removed from baseball to make it at 30 at the time but if murray quits football after 3 years at age 24 he could still have a chance.

Not sure I agree here.  He is a speed guy.  Seems like speed diminishes before power.  And 3 years of getting pounded on a football field won't help in that regard.  Particularly with a player type like him... as a shifty QB, that is a lot of wear on the knees over time.

Buckeye 2015 posted:

... I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

You could be right but I think things are relative in this case.  His head is in it enough that he became an outstanding P5 D1 player.  That said, I was surprised to see that he only hit .122 in 27 games in 2017.  Similarly, with football... went from a rarely used back-up role to a true star and top pro prospect in one year.  Talk about shooting star...

cabbagedad posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

... I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

You could be right but I think things are relative in this case.  His head is in it enough that he became an outstanding P5 D1 player.  That said, I was surprised to see that he only hit .122 in 27 games in 2017.  Similarly, with football... went from a rarely used back-up role to a true star and top pro prospect in one year.  Talk about shooting star...

He was stuck behind last year’s top pick in the NFL draft on Oklahoma’s depth chart.

Go44dad posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

I don't see the A's paying that kind of money....but I also don't understand how MLB just let's them change a rule to pay him $15 mil if that's what he wants to do.  If they let this go for Murray, what's gonna happen when the guy picked #1 next year says I want $25 mil?   You can't pick and choose players because they are a "big name".  I can't imagine the other owners are going to be ok with this deal.   I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

My understanding of the rule regarding bonus pools, is that if there was an agreement in place for more money before signing him to his $4.x M draft deal, that is a violation as determined by MLB.  If A's sign him to a MLB deal now, and MLB does not object, the deal would be valid.  By their actions and involvement so far, MLB wants him.

My understanding is that MLB sent their marketing staff to meet with Murray's representatives today.  That's from Jeff Passan/ESPN guy this morning.

He’s smart. He’s using MLB baseball as leverage for a larger NFL contract.

So if he signs with an NFL team, will the A’s eat their signing bonus or will they retain his MLB rights?

2022OFDad posted:

So if he signs with an NFL team, will the A’s eat their signing bonus or will they retain his MLB rights?

I think I read that they get the bonus money back but waste the pick with no compensation.  They retain his rights.

I say he goes NFL! MLB doesn’t wanna open up the Pandora’s box they would be for a guy that has less than 250 college at bats. The world we live in today thrives off of “well you did it for him”! MLB system has just way too much at stake here to make a mistake over a 5’9” guy who thinks he would enjoy the NFL. That’s only my 2 cents ....heck that might only be worth a penny

2019Lefty21 posted:

I say he goes NFL! MLB doesn’t wanna open up the Pandora’s box they would be for a guy that has less than 250 college at bats. The world we live in today thrives off of “well you did it for him”! MLB system has just way too much at stake here to make a mistake over a 5’9” guy who thinks he would enjoy the NFL. That’s only my 2 cents ....heck that might only be worth a penny

He's entering the draft. Oakland didn't budge. No accommodations are being made. MLB didn't actually have anything at stake, Oakland did and now they look foolish. 

Since Murray signed a baseball contact there isn’t compensation if he walks away. The team retains his rights.

The Celtics reimbursed the Blue Jays for the bonus money they paid Danny Ainge. Therefore, Ainge didn’t have to pay the money back. Obviously Ainge didn’t receive a signing bonus from the Celtics.,

PABaseball posted:

2019Lefty21 posted:

I say he goes NFL! MLB doesn’t wanna open up the Pandora’s box they would be for a guy that has less than 250 college at bats. The world we live in today thrives off of “well you did it for him”! MLB system has just way too much at stake here to make a mistake over a 5’9” guy who thinks he would enjoy the NFL. That’s only my 2 cents ....heck that might only be worth a penny

He's entering the draft. Oakland didn't budge. No accommodations are being made. MLB didn't actually have anything at stake, Oakland did and now they look foolish. 

This is a long way from over.  He put he name in for the NFL draft.  He didn't get drafted and signed by the NFL.  We'll see how this plays out.  MLB will try and help Oakland keep him.  Through marketing, through helping Oakland get their new stadium (if Oakland offers him more than current bonus).  It's not an accommodation if Oakland signs him to a MLB contract and puts him on the 40 man roster.  It's within the rules.

I suspect Go44 is right... Interesting that the only message from him this morning was a tweet "I have declared for the NFL draft".  I didn't see anything resembling the notion that this decision means he will focus all his efforts on football.  I wonder how this will affect his draft stock?  It could drop him considerably if the NFL doesn't know whether he will ever show up (and ultimately choose baseball instead), right?  

Probably lots to be sorted out between now and draft day.  All he really did today was leave both options open.

He actually made himself to look like he will be a difficult player to deal with  on a contract...trouble before he takes a single snap or pitch!

Go44dad posted:

This is a long way from over.  He put he name in for the NFL draft.  He didn't get drafted and signed by the NFL.  We'll see how this plays out.  MLB will try and help Oakland keep him.  Through marketing, through helping Oakland get their new stadium (if Oakland offers him more than current bonus).  It's not an accommodation if Oakland signs him to a MLB contract and puts him on the 40 man roster.  It's within the rules.

Yeah I know. I'm just operating under the assumption that he will be a first rd pick as many are saying and choose football. If he takes that route it will be a very bad look for Oakland who knew the risk when drafting. However, I still don't see MLB making any special accommodations or circumstances for him. If they budge, top prospects can demand the same money and the same terms. Chaos for a player who will take 3 years to develop. 

2022OFDad posted:

He actually made himself to look like he will be a difficult player to deal with  on a contract...trouble before he takes a single snap or pitch!

“Leverage”  

Wonder if he will put his offer on twitter?

2022OFDad posted:

He actually made himself to look like he will be a difficult player to deal with  on a contract...trouble before he takes a single snap or pitch!

I don't see it this way at all. He has options and he is leveraging them. Truthfully, I think he wants to play baseball or he wouldn't have been asking for the 15 million. Football has a bigger payout and when he gets drafted he will say I need $__________ or I'm going to play baseball. His head might be in baseball 100%, but how do you say no to a potential 36 million, days after the Cards coach said he would be interested in him with the 1st pick. Worst case scenario he winds up with 4.6 as a top 10 prospect in Oakland's system. If it were my son in this position it would be hard to advise against playing his cards the exact same way. 

What I read is that he didn’t ask for $15M. That was a false report. 

As badly as MLB needs more African American kids to play baseball, I think baseball is wise not to throw extra money at Kyler at this point. He’s got little better than a 50 percent chance of making it and staying in the big leagues more than 3 years as a first round draft pick in order to get to the second contract. It would be one thing if he batted .400 at Oklahoma and .350 at the Cape. He didn’t come close to those numbers. He batted .177 this summer in Cape Cod. 

MLB does not want Kyler Murray to be a bust. 

Yes, his bat is pretty raw and he likely would have taken 3-4 years in the minors, he isn't a guy like bryant or strasburg who basically only needed a year and a bit in the minors.

This is another reason why football makes sense for him, there is a bust risk but the same applies to baseball 

Btw he struck out 25% last year in college. Still hit 296 with some pop but those Ks are quite scary and show that his hit tool isn't very advanced. He would have had time to learn but there is a lot of risk as there is of course in going to NFL. He isn't a sure thing in either sport so Going for the guaranteed money probably isn't bad.

2022OFDad posted:

He actually made himself to look like he will be a difficult player to deal with  on a contract...trouble before he takes a single snap or pitch!

I don't agree, he is a young man with options and is under demand. The only reason he could be perceived as difficult to work with would be due to teams not being used to players with options. Right now his down side is 6m with the A's and off to the minors, everything above that is better.

I think it depends how he handles himself, where he ends up being drafted at by the NFL and then determining what he wants to do. He has Boras representing him and for better or worse the guy gets his players paid...it is all in the approach I think.

He has the leverage right now, if he isn't picked till say 28th that leverage is going to drop dramatically. If he is top 10 pick he would probably have to take the money from football.

Keep in mind the football people doing the drafting are going to be asking the questions. They are also at risk and that won't help his draft ability, they are actually at more risk then the A's just due to the need for a higher success rate in drafting first rounders.

It will be very interesting.

Dominik85 posted:

Btw he struck out 25% last year in college. Still hit 296 with some pop but those Ks are quite scary and show that his hit tool isn't very advanced. He would have had time to learn but there is a lot of risk as there is of course in going to NFL. He isn't a sure thing in either sport so Going for the guaranteed money probably isn't bad.

have you been watching MLB recently? Hit tool is not relevant and K's don't matter. Just mash it and we give you millions! Dave Kingman was way ahead of his time, he would be a super stud today!

old_school posted:

Dominik85 posted:

Btw he struck out 25% last year in college. Still hit 296 with some pop but those Ks are quite scary and show that his hit tool isn't very advanced. He would have had time to learn but there is a lot of risk as there is of course in going to NFL. He isn't a sure thing in either sport so Going for the guaranteed money probably isn't bad.

have you been watching MLB recently? Hit tool is not relevant and K's don't matter. Just mash it and we give you millions! Dave Kingman was way ahead of his time, he would be a super stud today!

College K rates are lower though and 25 percent might be equivalent to 35% in A ball. That is a little scary albeit he might have improved over time.

Above 30% Ks are still dangerous unless you truely have straight 80 power like joey gallo. Homers are so abundant now that 25 homers with low obp doesn't have a lot of value anymore. Sure if it is 45 homers it doesn't matter but not many can do that.

Does the scout who convinced the A's to pick him in the first round get canned now?

BrownIndian posted:

Does the scout who convinced the A's to pick him in the first round get canned now?

I wouldn't think so.   The A's model is to take risks...and they did.

This is one of those situations where you'd really like to understand Murray's decision criteria and the people giving him advice.  He has said from the start that football is his passion.  The A's knew this.  I can't fault Murray for following his passion.  He;s just not passionate about baseball as much as football.  

I haven't seen him play baseball, but I have seen him play football.  He is sensational college athlete and college football player.   I'd love to see the New England Patriots get him in a few years (at a substantial discount) and put him in the slot.   Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman was a D1 college QB, and he is absolutely a difference maker in the NFL as a slot receiver.   I just don't see him as an NFL QB, but time will tell.

As always, JMO.

I have seen Kyler Murray play both sports (in person) many times, dating back to HS.  He was the best HS athlete I have ever seen.  IMO he is a better football player than he is a baseball player - by a long shot.  He has never focused on baseball and is a very raw talent.  The A's drafted him based on the projection of what they thought he could become - not what he has already done.  Most baseball people I know were shocked that he was a first round pick.  His father was drafted out of HS and played a few years in the Brewers organization before going back to college and playing QB at Texas A&M.  Up until Johnny Manziel the best QB to ever play at A&M was Kevin Murray.  Kevin's passion was always football and he has passed that on to his son. Kevin's brother, Calvin Murray, played 5 years in the big leagues.  They are an incredibly talented family, and a testimony to why scouts and coaches always ask if relatives of a prospect play sports.  Genetics have an awful lot to do with athletic success!

Have to believe he had agents figure his probability of being NFL 1st Rounder (very high), top 10 (probably) or top pick (possible if Kingsbury is to be believed).  Only a terrible showing in the draft lead up could blow that up.  Even then he could rebound with a 2nd workout.

Regardless of actual slot - he'll get paid and never ride a bus except from the airport to the hotel.  NFL rules make it possible for him not to be wiped out but if he runs around sooner or later he will be.  But a 12 year NFL career is not a ridicules thought.  That would be at least one free agent pass and $100mm+ in earnings if he is a competent starting QB.  Of course if he fails Rosen as last years #10 got 17MM with $10MM signing.  So that would be the floor in the NFL for him I would think.  Top pick does about $5MM better.

So the question is RGIII or Russell Wilson?  My guess is better than Griffin but would not bet on him being as good as Wilson.

He could have been another Ricky Henderson type had he stayed with baseball assuming he was going to hit.  Probably 50-60 SB per year vs 90-100 but that kind of guy. 

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

Given the family background and his athleticism I figure he still gets drafted in the top ten rounds but signs for below slot money. The A’s didn’t know he was going to turn into a big NFL prospect with negotiating leverage. Drafting him was very A’s like. Paying him huge money given his baseball production was not. 

Add: He also hit .170 in the Cape League

Murray's senior high school stats:

Avg.    AB    2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB

.286   63     1        2        1      4

Career college stats:

Avg.    AB    2B    3B    HR   RBI    SB

.261   238   13     3       10    53     22

I'm not trying to dump on Murray, but 

RJM posted:

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

Given the family background and his athleticism I figure he still gets drafted in the top ten rounds but signs for below slot money. The A’s didn’t know he was going to turn into a big NFL prospect with negotiating leverage. Drafting him was very A’s like. Paying him huge money given his baseball production was not. 

Add: He also hit .170 in the Cape League

Yeah, but I do believe the A's saw worth in the fact he was slated to be the starting QB or a national championship contender and every time Oklahoma nationally is televised (which is every game) there will be a discussion about the A's.

It's conflicting, but the A's don't throw away #1 picks.  Not for "publicity", for sure.

Go44dad posted:

It's conflicting, but the A's don't throw away #1 picks.  Not for "publicity", for sure.

Except, it's certainly looking like they did JUST that.

It was a weird situation. Neither Baseball America nor MLB Pipeline had him in their top 200 draft prospects. BA did throw him up there late and closer to the draft, but not sure based on what. Perhaps rumors that the A's thought highly of him? He has plus speed, but that's the only part of his game that was first round worthy. Either way, I think he's making the right financial decision if he goes with the NFL draft.

roothog66 posted:

Go44dad posted:

It's conflicting, but the A's don't throw away #1 picks.  Not for "publicity", for sure.

Except, it's certainly looking like they did JUST that.

They get the money back. They had paid out 25% so far. I’ll bet MLB gives them a compensation pick as if he never signed.

RJM posted:

roothog66 posted:

Go44dad posted:

It's conflicting, but the A's don't throw away #1 picks.  Not for "publicity", for sure.

Except, it's certainly looking like they did JUST that.

They get the money back. They had paid out 25% so far. I’ll bet MLB gives them a compensation pick as if he never signed.

If I'm not wrong, it's already been decided that they won't get a compensation pick.

I find that whenever there is a 50/50 chance to get something right,  I get it wrong 70% of the time. But I do believe they will get a compensation pick.

BrownIndian posted:

I find that whenever there is a 50/50 chance to get something right,  I get it wrong 70% of the time. But I do believe they will get a compensation pick.

Welp.

From the NY Times: 

Bob Melvin, the A’s manager, said he was “cautiously optimistic” that Murray would choose baseball, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Yet, realistically, those hopes had been dimming since Murray declared for the N.F.L. draft on Jan. 14. The A’s retain his rights should Murray ever reconsider, but they will get no compensation pick for his defection. They gambled and lost — but baseball lost even bigger.

The A’s won’t be compensated. Murray remains the property of the A’s should he return to baseball. 

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

Dirk posted:

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

They're not penalized, they just lose the slot money. Compensation would be for him not signing, which they will not be since he did sign. So if he ever made a return to baseball, the A's still own his rights

PABaseball posted:

Dirk posted:

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

They're not penalized, they just lose the slot money. Compensation would be for him not signing, which they will not be since he did sign. So if he ever made a return to baseball, the A's still own his rights

And when you say “they lose that slot money”....they can’t use that slot money for any other player? 

I couldn't believe the A's drafted him in June and I'm not surprised at the result. He was sitting behind the Heisman Trophy winner and 1st overall pick in Mayfield. Not some average quarterback at a mid major. I figure the A's thought that once he made the majors, they would be getting a superstar for the league minimum. That being said, they knew the risk and it made them look foolish. Was he that much better then any of the next 10 picks that he was worth the risk? 

Even though I hate the A's style (sabermetrics as religion, no bunting, no stealing) I like how they put together a roster. But after not winning in forever, letting all those stars go, and wasting a first rd pick, it has to make you wonder how long they keep the guys at the top around or how much longer they're ok with the current state. 

Dirk posted:

PABaseball posted:

Dirk posted:

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

They're not penalized, they just lose the slot money. Compensation would be for him not signing, which they will not be since he did sign. So if he ever made a return to baseball, the A's still own his rights

And when you say “they lose that slot money”....they can’t use that slot money for any other player? 

No, and if they negotiated other contracts over/under the slot, and losing that slot puts them over their total alotted slot, it voids other contracts. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...day.com/amp/12857213

Go44dad posted:

Dirk posted:

PABaseball posted:

Dirk posted:

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

They're not penalized, they just lose the slot money. Compensation would be for him not signing, which they will not be since he did sign. So if he ever made a return to baseball, the A's still own his rights

And when you say “they lose that slot money”....they can’t use that slot money for any other player? 

No, and if they negotiated other contracts over/under the slot, and losing that slot puts them over their total alotted slot, it voids other contracts. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...day.com/amp/12857213

Why is the penalty so severe? 

JCG posted:

BrownIndian posted:

I find that whenever there is a 50/50 chance to get something right,  I get it wrong 70% of the time. But I do believe they will get a compensation pick.

Welp.

From the NY Times: 

Bob Melvin, the A’s manager, said he was “cautiously optimistic” that Murray would choose baseball, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Yet, realistically, those hopes had been dimming since Murray declared for the N.F.L. draft on Jan. 14. The A’s retain his rights should Murray ever reconsider, but they will get no compensation pick for his defection. They gambled and lost — but baseball lost even bigger.

It seems to me that the NY Times is jumping the gun a bit.  Declaring for the draft does not mean he'll choose football.  He'll wait and see how the draft goes, see how much money he's offered, and make a decision.  I'd do the same thing if I were him.

Dirk posted:

Go44dad posted:

No, and if they negotiated other contracts over/under the slot, and losing that slot puts them over their total alotted slot, it voids other contracts. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...day.com/amp/12857213

Why is the penalty so severe? 

It isn't really a penalty. It is just what they are allowing the team to spend on said player. If they don't sign him they just don't get to use that money. If they let the teams use the money, they would purposely lowball certain picks (knowing they wouldn't sign) to pay the studs they want more. So if a team has 19 million in slot money to sign their players and a first round pick with a slot value of 5 million doesn't sign, the team now has 14 million to sign the rest of their picks. It is not so much a punishment, more of a if you don't sign, you don't get to use it. 

In this case Murray did sign so the A's don't have to have any to void any of the other guys that were signed. 

PABaseball posted:

Dirk posted:

Go44dad posted:

No, and if they negotiated other contracts over/under the slot, and losing that slot puts them over their total alotted slot, it voids other contracts. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...day.com/amp/12857213

Why is the penalty so severe? 

It isn't really a penalty. It is just what they are allowing the team to spend on said player. If they don't sign him they just don't get to use that money. If they let the teams use the money, they would purposely lowball certain picks (knowing they wouldn't sign) to pay the studs they want more. So if a team has 19 million in slot money to sign their players and a first round pick with a slot value of 5 million doesn't sign, the team now has 14 million to sign the rest of their picks. It is not so much a punishment, more of a if you don't sign, you don't get to use it. 

In this case Murray did sign so the A's don't have to have any to void any of the other guys that were signed. 

Now I understand why scouts need to know what you will sign for in the draft. 

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

He hit 10 homers his final college season. Wouldnt call that minimal power. Hit tool was the biggest question.

Dominik85 posted:

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

He hit 10 homers his final college season. Wouldnt call that minimal power. Hit tool was the biggest question.

Yeah it is. 10 HR didn't even rank him in the top 40 outfielders in the NCAA. For a clean up hitter in the NCAA, 10 homers is OK, but minimal power, especially when combined with a sub .300 average and a 28/58 BB/K ratio in only 186 ab's. The only areas where he has shown mlb tools was speed, arm and glove. So, no doubt a draft pick guy - just not a top 10 pick. Usually, you don't use your first pick on projects. You want to see developed skills in almost every area.

roothog66 posted:

Dominik85 posted:

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

He hit 10 homers his final college season. Wouldnt call that minimal power. Hit tool was the biggest question.

Yeah it is. 10 HR didn't even rank him in the top 40 outfielders in the NCAA. For a clean up hitter in the NCAA, 10 homers is OK, but minimal power, especially when combined with a sub .300 average and a 28/58 BB/K ratio in only 186 ab's. The only areas where he has shown mlb tools was speed, arm and glove. So, no doubt a draft pick guy - just not a top 10 pick. Usually, you don't use your first pick on projects. You want to see developed skills in almost every area.

Let's compare him to some other drafted outfielders from 2018. We'll start toward the bottom. Boston 40th round pick Zach Watson out of LSU:

.308 / 15 2B's / 7 HR (9 in 2017) / 14 SB - good glove, good speed

Drew Mount - 16th round - Kansas State

.292 / 9HR / 47 rbi / 21 sb - good speed

Then we get to the real picks at OF:

Brock Deatherage - 10th round - NC St.

.307 / 14 HR / 41 rbi / 18sb

Keegan McGovern - 9th round - Georgia

.319 / 14 2B's / 18 HR / 58 rbi

Andrew Moritz - 6th round - UNC-Greensboro

.428 / 7 2B / 10 3B / 6 HR / 61 rbi / 12 sb 

Bren Spillane - 3rd round - Illinois

.389 / 17 2B's / 23 HR / 60 rbi / 16 sb

Trevor Larnach - end of 1st round - Oregon State

.248 / 19 2B's / 19 HR's / 77 rbi 

Kyler Murray 

.296 / 13 2B's / 10 HR's / 47 rbi / 10 sb

Now, by "minimal power" I didn't mean he had no power, just minimal as a category ranking. I also don't think power is generally something you care too much about coming from a LF/CF projected guy. However, I sincerely believe if this guy hadn't been the QB-in-waiting at Oklahoma, not only would he not have been a first round pick, he might not have even been drafted because he wouldn't have been signable outside of a high bonus slot.

Well scouts don't just scout stats. He was very raw but people thought he might be able to tap into more power.

Some even compared him to mookie betts. 

Stats don't always tell the whole story, there are many minor leaguers with "minimal power" who grow into it.

That he was able to hit 10 bombs with minimal baseball experience probably shows that he had more power in the tank.

As wouldn't have taken him there if they thought 10 bombs were his ceiling.

IMHO if you have never seen Murray play in person (and you know what you are looking at) you really aren’t qualified to offer an educated opinion about what kind of baseball player he could become. He has lightning fast hands and feet, which can’t be fully appreciated unless seen live in real time. 

adbono posted:

IMHO if you have never seen Murray play in person (and you know what you are looking at) you really aren’t qualified to offer an educated opinion about what kind of baseball player he could become. He has lightning fast hands and feet, which can’t be fully appreciated unless seen live in real time. 

I have and I do. Note that with the same tools, he wasn't considered by either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline as a top 200 draft prospect, though he popped into BA's top 100 after the A's started showing interest. He has a good arm, plus-plus speed, but was still a big talent gamble you don't normally see taken as college guys in the first few rounds. Also, the circular reasoning of "we know he is good because the A's drafted him, so he must have been a top prospect" is not logically sound.

Dominik85 posted:

Well scouts don't just scout stats. He was very raw but people thought he might be able to tap into more power.

Some even compared him to mookie betts. 

Stats don't always tell the whole story, there are many minor leaguers with "minimal power" who grow into it.

That he was able to hit 10 bombs with minimal baseball experience probably shows that he had more power in the tank.

As wouldn't have taken him there if they thought 10 bombs were his ceiling.

 

Not sure what you mean by "minimal baseball experience." He has the same amount of experience as pretty much everyone else drafted. He's not a Lorenzo Cain story. He's been playing big time tournament baseball since he was about 10.

If he was someone other than the heir apparent at QB for Oklahoma, he certainly had the raw tools to be drafted, but not in the top rounds.

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

roothog66 posted:

Let's compare him to some other drafted outfielders from 2018. We'll start toward the bottom. Boston 40th round pick Zach Watson out of LSU:

.308 / 15 2B's / 7 HR (9 in 2017) / 14 SB - good glove, good speed

Drew Mount - 16th round - Kansas State

.292 / 9HR / 47 rbi / 21 sb - good speed

Then we get to the real picks at OF:

Brock Deatherage - 10th round - NC St.

.307 / 14 HR / 41 rbi / 18sb

Keegan McGovern - 9th round - Georgia

.319 / 14 2B's / 18 HR / 58 rbi

Andrew Moritz - 6th round - UNC-Greensboro

.428 / 7 2B / 10 3B / 6 HR / 61 rbi / 12 sb 

Bren Spillane - 3rd round - Illinois

.389 / 17 2B's / 23 HR / 60 rbi / 16 sb

Trevor Larnach - end of 1st round - Oregon State

.248 / 19 2B's / 19 HR's / 77 rbi 

Kyler Murray 

.296 / 13 2B's / 10 HR's / 47 rbi / 10 sb

Now, by "minimal power" I didn't mean he had no power, just minimal as a category ranking. I also don't think power is generally something you care too much about coming from a LF/CF projected guy. However, I sincerely believe if this guy hadn't been the QB-in-waiting at Oklahoma, not only would he not have been a first round pick, he might not have even been drafted because he wouldn't have been signable outside of a high bonus slot.

FWIW - Juwan Harris played football (DB) and baseball (OF) for Rutgers. Like Murray he is short with plus speed. He put up similar numbers to Murray (.269 / 9 2B / 8HR  / 26 RBI / 23 SB) out of the 2 hole in his draft year. 

He was taken in the 7th round in the same draft as Murray. Which I still thought was a little high. I remember plenty of people being pretty shocked at Murray getting drafted that high without even knowing how high his football ceiling was. 

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Also note that Cabrera was signed after winning a batting title in the highly respected Venezuela Winter League at the age of 16. 

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Well, if by "so little in the area of performance" you mean that there are plenty of other players at the same level who performed equally well or better, then, sure, it happens all the time. Here's Matt Manning (2016 1st round pick) high school stats:

2015 (junior): 43 IP, 3.09 ERA, 34 H, 24 BB, 51 K

2016 (senior): 40 IP, 1.91 ERA, 17 H, 21 BB, 77 K

Heck, your son put up much, much better stats than that, and so did dozens or hundreds of other high school pitchers.

I have no idea if Murray had first-round talent in baseball. But comparing his stats to other college outfielders just seems to me to miss the point that the scouts are looking for tools. 

2019Dad posted:

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Well, if by "so little in the area of performance" you mean that there are plenty of other players at the same level who performed equally well or better, then, sure, it happens all the time. Here's Matt Manning (2016 1st round pick) high school stats:

2015 (junior): 43 IP, 3.09 ERA, 34 H, 24 BB, 51 K

2016 (senior): 40 IP, 1.91 ERA, 17 H, 21 BB, 77 K

Heck, your son put up much, much better stats than that, and so did dozens or hundreds of other high school pitchers.

I have no idea if Murray had first-round talent in baseball. But comparing his stats to other college outfielders just seems to me to miss the point that the scouts are looking for tools. 

Yes, it completely misses that point. 

2019Dad posted:

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Well, if by "so little in the area of performance" you mean that there are plenty of other players at the same level who performed equally well or better, then, sure, it happens all the time. Here's Matt Manning (2016 1st round pick) high school stats:

2015 (junior): 43 IP, 3.09 ERA, 34 H, 24 BB, 51 K

2016 (senior): 40 IP, 1.91 ERA, 17 H, 21 BB, 77 K

Heck, your son put up much, much better stats than that, and so did dozens or hundreds of other high school pitchers.

I have no idea if Murray had first-round talent in baseball. But comparing his stats to other college outfielders just seems to me to miss the point that the scouts are looking for tools. 

High school is a little different. I also picked other guys who were touted for similar tools - speed and arm strength or other tools like shown power. Looking just at first rounders, I haven't seen any other college outfielders in the first round like Murray, though. Bottom line is he's a sure bet to make an NFL roster and probably had far less than average chances at the majors as it applies first round draft picks. I also want to make it clear I don't think the guy is a bum. 

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Well, if by "so little in the area of performance" you mean that there are plenty of other players at the same level who performed equally well or better, then, sure, it happens all the time. Here's Matt Manning (2016 1st round pick) high school stats:

2015 (junior): 43 IP, 3.09 ERA, 34 H, 24 BB, 51 K

2016 (senior): 40 IP, 1.91 ERA, 17 H, 21 BB, 77 K

Heck, your son put up much, much better stats than that, and so did dozens or hundreds of other high school pitchers.

I have no idea if Murray had first-round talent in baseball. But comparing his stats to other college outfielders just seems to me to miss the point that the scouts are looking for tools. 

High school is a little different. I also picked other guys who were touted for similar tools - speed and arm strength or other tools like shown power. Looking just at first rounders, I haven't seen any other college outfielders in the first round like Murray, though. Bottom line is he's a sure bet to make an NFL roster and probably had far less than average chances at the majors as it applies first round draft picks. I also want to make it clear I don't think the guy is a bum. 

Also don't lose sight of the fact that Manning was sitting 95/96 in high school. I think drafting a high school pitcher on one tool  when that one tool is velocity is far different than projecting on arm strength and foot speed for an outfielder who hasn't shown elite ability with the bat. at the college level. There also seemed to be confusion from dominick as to his baseball experience. He's not some athlete transitioning to baseball. He's been on high level travel teams since he was an 8yo.

What the A's saw was a elite athlete.  His speed and athleticism are completely obvious if you watch him take 20 snaps as a QB.

If the A's saw enough in his swing to project him has a 20ish HR guy with the ability to steal 50+ bases and cover a lot of ground in the OF as a possible CF then you might have a 1st rounder.  The obvious comp is McCutcheon who without the 3 years of his prime was a .275 20 HR 20SB guy.  Also a 5 time all-star.  Not bad.

I don't know anything about all the guys in the stat rundown above - but I would be willing to wager that none are the physical specimen Murry is.  You can't teach size or speed.  

I understand the argument that he might have been a reach in top 10 - but if he can hit - a big IF, then there is little doubt he would have been worth it if he came anywhere near what McCutcheon was.  

My estimate is that there was a 1 in 10 shot of that happening.  40% - 60% shot he'd be a journeyman 4th OF and 1 in 3 on bust.  If you use the draft to swing for the fences then it makes sense.  If you are at #9 and want to be sure you have a 80% shot of a competent MLB player that has a 10+ year career - then Murray probably isn't the move.

But remember guys still fail.  Try these names out Cuddyer, Zito, Baez, Whitson, Rowell, Crow and Pelfrey.  All guys drafted 9th in the last 20 years.  There are others but the point is that the MLB draft is he least knowable of all drafts and some teams will luck into good players or lose on prospects widely held in high regard.

Also read the As wanted to take a shot because they can't afford star players. Murray had a bust risk but also star potential. As can't sign a star  so they need to take some risks.

Seems like murray made the right decision.

I really don't think this is the end of Murray and baseball.  I'll give him 3 years and this football thing isn't working out, I could see him jumping back to baseball

He looked so terrible in that Bowl game last year.  Not ready for prime time.  Surprised he went 1st overall but I'm not a scout, not even an arm chair scout

3and2 he started slow in that game but had a good 2nd half so numbers werent terrible

I like him... just thought this was funny.

Like baseball it’s all about mechanics and metrics over stats that make an NFL prospect. There’s a guy you can ask. Tim somebody. I forgot his last name. As the song says, (He) Don’t get around much anymore. 

Sorry still digesting the Daniel Jones pick. 

2022NYC posted:

Sorry still digesting the Daniel Jones pick. 

I just read an article from a panel of three draft analysts stating the Giants over valued all three first round picks. The article was titled the Giants will take years to recover from blowing the first round. 

cabbagedad posted:

I like him... just thought this was funny.

Would be even funnier if he was standing on a pile of cash. 

RJM posted:

2022NYC posted:

Sorry still digesting the Daniel Jones pick. 

I just read an article from a panel of three draft analysts stating the Giants over valued all three first round picks. The article was titled the Giants will take years to recover from blowing the first round. 

We can hope

RJM posted:

2022NYC posted:

Sorry still digesting the Daniel Jones pick. 

I just read an article from a panel of three draft analysts stating the Giants over valued all three first round picks. The article was titled the Giants will take years to recover from blowing the first round. 

It's bizarre when you look at Jones' numbers and results last season that you could possibly consider him over Haskins or Lock and even 5 or 6 others.  Draft guys had him as low as #10 among QB's.  Maybe the biggest stretch in QB history.  The Mannings had better hope this kid works out or their days as QB "gurus" will be over real quick.   As a Buckeye fan, I loved it when the Redskins took Haskins.....not only is he in the NFC, away from my Steelers, he'll get a chance to beat the Giants....and better yet, the Cowboys twice a year for a long time

2022NYC posted:

Sorry still digesting the Daniel Jones pick. 

Well he is either going to be Eli Jr. or Dave Brown.  In a worst case they wait until 2020 to make him the starter - and he is a bust like everyone thinks he is.  Gettleman gets fired - Giants go all in on Lawrence.  They are left with a decent to good O line, an improving defense and a HOF Running back and $100MM in salary cap.

Best case is he is what they think and they and some of these other players turn into decent players and they are a couple of pass rushers away from being a serious contender.

All this set back for years stuff is crazy in the NFL. Every team has at least 15 competent players so they are one good draft and a few good signings from being competitive.  To be bad in the NFL you have to whiff 3 or 4 years in a row which the Giants basically did from 2012-2017.

I am sure all the Patriots fans remember that time their season ended when Bledsoe had his chest exploded to be 0-2.  Went just like all the panicky fans thought I am sure after TAAAWWWWM took the field.  The only other person who got Pipped more than Bledsoe was Pipp himself.  For those that don't remember Adam V made the last play of the year and the Dynasty started.

luv baseball posted:

 

.................. For those that don't remember Adam V made the last play of the year and the Dynasty started.

Well the Dynasty had some awesome picks in 2019 in my opinion, and that has me worried if it is too good to be true.  I never thought they'd win it all in 2018, never ever.   Belichick does miracles and I've learned never to 2nd guess him.   I really liked Stidham in the 4th round...freaking genius.

fenwaysouth posted:

luv baseball posted:

 

.................. For those that don't remember Adam V made the last play of the year and the Dynasty started.

Well the Dynasty had some awesome picks in 2019 in my opinion, and that has me worried if it is too good to be true.  I never thought they'd win it all in 2018, never ever.   Belichick does miracles and I've learned never to 2nd guess him.   I really liked Stidham in the 4th round...freaking genius.

I grew up in Chestnut Hill within walking distance to BC. The Patriots played there for a year. They stunk! We would sneak into the games with tricks you could never pull today. As an adult I had an “Aha! moment”. They didn’t catch us because we became seat fillers in a half empty stadium.

Imagine trying this today ... Huge bags of ice were unloaded outside the gate in the parking lot. Grab a bag of ice. Throw it over your shoulder covering your face. Walk through the gate like you work there, say “concessions” and keep moving. Get inside, Chuck the bag and run like hell. 

I was at the “snow ball game” at Harvard Stadium against the Vikings in 9th grade. It snowed Saturday night. The stadium seats weren’t cleared off. Where do you think that snow went when the Patriots started stinking up the joint?

The Patriots were so bad then they were playing preseason games in Birmingham AL and Jacksonville. They were trying to decide where to move. Had Schaefer Stadium (the world’s biggest high school stadium, 60,000 aluminum bleacher seats) not been built the Patriots were gone. Before Schaefer the Patriots played in three stadiums (Fenway, Alumni/BC and Harvard Coliseum) in three years. 

Shaaaaafaa Stadium - built as a concrete bowl with those benches in about 9 months I think.  Perhaps the worst professional stadium I was ever in.  It wouldn't be built today except on a college campus or high school.  In fact there are few joints in Texas for HS that are probably better.

Schaefer was built for 6M in 1970 money. It would be 39M now. 

Not a football expert, how is he doing? Team is pretty bad, isn't it? Is he looking like a starting QB? Did he make the right decision?

I watch the fourth quarter of Red Zone every week. I’m seeing games in crunch time. Unless a rookie QB looks really lost or plays like a Pro Bowler it’s hard to tell in the first season. NFL defenses are very complex. Everyone on the field is a lot faster and quicker than college. Sometimes Murray looks like a future star. Sometimes he makes rookie bonehead mistakes.

Everyone on the field has NFL talent. Success ultimately comes down to understanding what you’re seeing in a timely manner, not misunderstanding your skill set and reacting properly. 

What most first year QB’s learn is what worked in college doesn’t always work in the NFL. It’s a hard lesson usually learned by experiencing turnovers.