Kyler Murray

He’s a fool if he goes NFL...he’s exactly the kind of QB that breaks easily.

I can understand it if he really gets drafted top15 or so. Top15 nfl pick gets a guaranteed 13-15m or so, while now he only has a guaranteed 4.6m.

If he becomes a star he makes more in baseball but he first needs to get through 3-4 minor league years and then 3-4 minimum pay years depending how service time is manipulated.

Also while he can easily bust as a QB he can also bust in baseball, his hit tool is raw for a college bat and plenty of elite athlete have failed to hit in the majors.

He has a high bust risk in both sports and probably chose the higher floor.

I think the NFL is his best move (financially), but I'm more interested in the baseball side of this. Let's be optimistic and say he makes in to the big league in 2 years. That is two years of an MLB roster spot being taken up. It also sets up a precedent. High ranking draftees will want what he got. More money. I'm not sure how the A's could possible agree to this. There is also a lot on the line for them. From what I understand they won't be compensated with another pick so there is a lot on the line for them as well. 

I’m in agreement with this article ...

“Forget the minor leagues, bus trips, and the possibility of never making it big in MLB. In the NFL, you play now, get paid now, become a star now. And you can make big bucks as an NFL QB.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sp...fu7yNrboO/story.html

I hope he chooses baseball. I think the A’s will offer him a MLB contract tonight for $10/11M and he will take it. He will be on their 40 tomorrow. MLB wants him and may bend a little on something to help the A’s. 

He just picked the wrong GM to ask for a lot of money.

He is 21 as we speak and 22 in August.  If you assume even 2 years in the minors he will be near 30 before he gets his shot at free agency.  On the other hand as we saw this week with Betts and DeGrom arbitration can yield a $20MM contract but we are talking the apex of the food chain.  If he becomes an everyday CF that is above average in the field and a competent hitter with 20 HR power he can probably expect $7 to $10MM in arbitration.

My guess is making the majors and being everyday CF will depend on hitting breaking ball.  A lot of guys have busted out on that.  That NFL signing bonus is guaranteed money.  If he makes it as a starter he will probably earn another $150MM playing football.  

If he thinks he is Russell Wilson play football.  If he thinks he is Ricky Henderson play baseball.  My guess is Wilson is the likely and better bet.

There is no shortcut to MLB.  He'll need at least 2 years in the minors if not more, to learn how to hit pro pitching.  Even Trout needed that time, and let's face it Murray isn't Trout.

If he thinks he will be a first round pick, it is almost a no brainer to take the football route. Even if he is out of the league in three years, he will clear around 10 million and he'd have cleared a lucrative sponsorship deal. After that first round is up and you move towards the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds in the draft, the money starts running a lot thinner. It's tough to pass that up when 3 months from now he will be riding a bus for 7hrs making $1500 a month. Baseball money is not that good until you establish yourself as a league average + player. Then it is gold. 

I'm just interested to see what the A's do. It doesn't seem like there is a scenario where they come out winners

Btw i could see him taking the tebow route and still trying baseball if he busts at football.

Tebow was too old and too far removed from baseball to make it at 30 at the time but if murray quits football after 3 years at age 24 he could still have a chance.

PABaseball posted:

I think the NFL is his best move (financially), but I'm more interested in the baseball side of this. Let's be optimistic and say he makes in to the big league in 2 years. That is two years of an MLB roster spot being taken up. It also sets up a precedent. High ranking draftees will want what he got. More money. I'm not sure how the A's could possible agree to this. There is also a lot on the line for them. From what I understand they won't be compensated with another pick so there is a lot on the line for them as well. 

Also not allowed to sign him to an extension  now I think as it would be seen as circumventing the bonus pool.

If there is one thing that is increasingly apparent is that the owners in baseball are much more disciplined about throwing money around than they once were.  The bonus pool for rookies, battle to keep Milb baseball salaries low and the seeming end of long term big money free agent deals for mid career above average players indicate this.

Baseball is probably willing to lose this one to keep financial discipline.

Dominik85 posted:

PABaseball posted:

I think the NFL is his best move (financially), but I'm more interested in the baseball side of this. Let's be optimistic and say he makes in to the big league in 2 years. That is two years of an MLB roster spot being taken up. It also sets up a precedent. High ranking draftees will want what he got. More money. I'm not sure how the A's could possible agree to this. There is also a lot on the line for them. From what I understand they won't be compensated with another pick so there is a lot on the line for them as well. 

Also not allowed to sign him to an extension  now I think as it would be seen as circumventing the bonus pool.

That is an MLB/Commissioner decision as to whether a "wink and nod" agreement was in place when he originally signed.  And the MLB wants him.  I think it depends more on the pushback to the commissioner from the team owner's other than the A's.

luv baseball posted:

If there is one thing that is increasingly apparent is that the owners in baseball are much more disciplined about throwing money around than they once were.  The bonus pool for rookies, battle to keep Milb baseball salaries low and the seeming end of long term big money free agent deals for mid career above average players indicate this.

Baseball is probably willing to lose this one to keep financial discipline.

They are definitely smarter about their money.  And players are MLB ready younger than in the past.  Couple that with the worst union in sports and the owner's are making out.  Specifically allowing a salary cap (titled Luxury Tax) while at the same time ignoring the the biggest prize the owner's have, 6+ years of control of a player.  The players with the service time are only looking at what benefits them, and the younger union members fall in line, bc they are "happy to be there".

I don't see the A's paying that kind of money....but I also don't understand how MLB just let's them change a rule to pay him $15 mil if that's what he wants to do.  If they let this go for Murray, what's gonna happen when the guy picked #1 next year says I want $25 mil?   You can't pick and choose players because they are a "big name".  I can't imagine the other owners are going to be ok with this deal.   I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

Buckeye 2015 posted:

I don't see the A's paying that kind of money....but I also don't understand how MLB just let's them change a rule to pay him $15 mil if that's what he wants to do.  If they let this go for Murray, what's gonna happen when the guy picked #1 next year says I want $25 mil?   You can't pick and choose players because they are a "big name".  I can't imagine the other owners are going to be ok with this deal.   I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

My understanding of the rule regarding bonus pools, is that if there was an agreement in place for more money before signing him to his $4.x M draft deal, that is a violation as determined by MLB.  If A's sign him to a MLB deal now, and MLB does not object, the deal would be valid.  By their actions and involvement so far, MLB wants him.

My understanding is that MLB sent their marketing staff to meet with Murray's representatives today.  That's from Jeff Passan/ESPN guy this morning.

Dominik85 posted:

Btw i could see him taking the tebow route and still trying baseball if he busts at football.

Tebow was too old and too far removed from baseball to make it at 30 at the time but if murray quits football after 3 years at age 24 he could still have a chance.

Not sure I agree here.  He is a speed guy.  Seems like speed diminishes before power.  And 3 years of getting pounded on a football field won't help in that regard.  Particularly with a player type like him... as a shifty QB, that is a lot of wear on the knees over time.

Buckeye 2015 posted:

... I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

You could be right but I think things are relative in this case.  His head is in it enough that he became an outstanding P5 D1 player.  That said, I was surprised to see that he only hit .122 in 27 games in 2017.  Similarly, with football... went from a rarely used back-up role to a true star and top pro prospect in one year.  Talk about shooting star...

cabbagedad posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

... I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

You could be right but I think things are relative in this case.  His head is in it enough that he became an outstanding P5 D1 player.  That said, I was surprised to see that he only hit .122 in 27 games in 2017.  Similarly, with football... went from a rarely used back-up role to a true star and top pro prospect in one year.  Talk about shooting star...

He was stuck behind last year’s top pick in the NFL draft on Oklahoma’s depth chart.