Lincecum ready for arbitration hearing

Lincecum has earned about 1.5 million in his less than three full seasons in the Show. Even adding 13 million for a total of 14.5 million for two Cy Youngs and whatever he does this year is a bargain at today's prices.

I figure if Lincecum can handle being ripped up over the pot bust he doesn't settle and wins 13M. The Giants will make an issue of the pot bust and 33 wins not being a typical Cy Young winner. They're going to compare him to other pitchers with 33 (or close) over the past two years or in the first years of their careers and adjust for today's dollar which I'm guessing is 8M based on their offer.

Of course the arbitrator may realize that wins are no longer considered the main definition of a pitcher's worth anymore especially when you pitch for a team with a pathetic offense and defense like the Giants had last year. There are many new sabermatic tools now used to determine true worth.

Lincecum is better, in comparison, than Soriano, Rodriguez and Howard. None of them were considered the best at their position in their league, Lincecum has done that twice in 3 years. Combine that with the marketability in the Bay Area, and you have quite the profitable pitcher.

I think it ends comparably to Verlander. The Giants pony up lots of money in exchange for locking up Lincecum for several years, so that they don't have to worry about him going free agent in 2 years.

Verlander traded his first arbitration year for salary and bonuses totaling $7.25 m, his second arbitration year for something like $13 m, plus three more years (that would have been free agency years) at $20 m each. You could argue he might've gotten more than that had he waited 2 years for the recession to end, etc., but who knows where that's leading, plus you have the risk of injury to consider. It's hard to turn down $80m in guaranteed money.

I would think Lincecum's deal would be along the same lines, but a notch or two above Verlander's money.

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Being in the extended bay area...everything I read and see here is remarkably amicable...on both sides...long interview with Tim on the TV in the last few days saying all the right things if you are a Giant fan and all the wrong things if you are his agent. Interview also acknowledged the MJ mistake and stating that it is time for him to grow up. Also said he really wanted to play his whole career here, loves the place, the team, the park the people. Even from my cynical viewpoint sounds very genuine. Bodes well.

$26M per 2 years

Interesting compromise ....

$2 million signing bonus, make $8 million in salary this season and $13 million the next.

I hear the new contract includes a million dollar bonus if he cuts his hair. Sorry, couldn't resist.

Went below the mid-point with
$23M for two years!

The Giants will rue the day they did this. The only way they can come out of this looking smart is if he suffers a serious injury in the next two years. Otherwise, he's a Yankee in 2012 at over $20 million per.

They should've used their current leverage to lock him up through his prime, like Detroit did with Verlander.

With that kind of greenback I guess Timmy can get some really good wacky tobaccie...

Sorry, couldn't resist...



PS - As a senior citizen anything I say cannot be used against me...

Is anyone uncertain about how many more years Lincecum can keep up the pace he is at now with his unorthodox pitching delivery and approach?

I know I am

That looks like the Giants are taking the bet that he won't make it longer than 2-3 years. I hope he pitches for 20 years.

Hope this isn't what's happening, but, Sabean only has 1 or 2 year contract left, maybe be using Timmy for bait if he isn't resigned as G.M. and feels he can bring the Freak with him to the next club.

Just throwing up on the wall.

This is not a bad contract from either side. In todays market and with the common injury factor of all pitchers especially one with an allout delivery in a small body a two year contract is very smart. The one's taking a risk are the teams giving any pitcher a five or six year contract. Go do the research and you will find very few worked out where the team got anywhere near full value. See what he does for the next two years then offer him a longer bigger contract. At least he has secured his financial future with his first big paycheck. Not all guys want to play in NY, he seems more like a laid back California type guy.

Just to clarify - Timmy is still tied to Giants for next four years - this contract only buys out two of his arbitration years. Still lots of time to work out a long term deal to make the "Freak" a Giant for life.

That's why it would make no sense to overpay now when he can't be a free agent for awhile.

quote:

Originally posted by Three Bagger:
That's why it would make no sense to overpay now when he can't be a free agent for awhile.

I would not say paying him very big money now is over paying him but paying him what he is worth...

quote:

The one's taking a risk are the teams giving any pitcher a five or six year contract. Go do the research and you will find very few worked out where the team got anywhere near full value.

Wayne Garland was probably the worst long term injury riddled free agent signing. He won 28 games over five years for the Indians after winning 20 for the Orioles back in the 70's.

The Red Sox placed an injury contingency clause in John Lackey's contract. I'll bet the Players Association isn't real pleased Lackey signed the contract. JD Drew also has an injury clause in his contract.

The Mike Hampton signing by Colorado was a total disaster with a contract over 120 million .