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3and2Fastball posted:

"How good you are at other things"... What do you mean, specifically?  Are you talking about being a two way player?  Pitching and playing another position as well?  Or being a Pitcher/DH?  That kind of thing

There are pitchers at the low level D3's that throw high 70's to low 80's

By "other things i mostly meant control and off speed.

gutsnglory posted:

I understand that there are huge velocity ranges, but is there speed that would be a deal breaker no matter how good you are at other things? 

No. There is not one speed or situation where a coach is going to say I'm not interested.   There is more to pitching than velocity and I could rattle off a dozen or so things a college recruiter is going to look at holistically to make a determination if they are initially interested in a recruit.  If you want an answer, I think you are going to have to ask the coach themselves and I really don't think that is a good question to ask.  I think a better question would be to ask "what are the velocity ranges of your current pitching staff".  So, this will give you an idea of the range across a typical college pitching staff of 17 players on a roster of 35 players.

There are many other considerations (movement, control, projectability, coachability, work ethic, frame, mechanics, etc..) across a wide variety of schools and situations.   My son played with a pitcher (D1) who officially played exactly 1 inning in his entire 4 year college career beyond practice.  He was a submariner and probably couldn't break a glass window with his fastball.   He graduated with a 0.00 ERA.   Do you know what he had going for him?  He was very smart and his family endowed the Athletic Director's salary.  He is currently in the front office of an MLB team.  LIke I said, there are all kinds of considerations that schools look at.  ;-)

Answer that Dads want to hear: 75 and your son is that special snowflake

Answer that is more close to real: 87-93 at least once in front of a scout, depending on school, for weekend starters

(Dad thought bubble... but, but I saw a kid throw a few two seamers in relief in a D3 game during the week once at 78..)

Think of this as a pyramid. Hundreds can touch 90, Thousands can touch 85. Everyone else can touch 80.  Which group do you want to be in? Which group do you want to recruit from?

Last edited by SultanofSwat

All the answers above are right, and there are many more that are right depending on the situation.

Our younger son, 5-10 RHP, 85 mph in HS, pitched at a Power-5 school and left barely touching 90 but as the all-time innings-pitched leader at that school.  "Spectacular command" is how one scout describes him (now pitching in double-A).

So when you say, "By other things i mostly meant control and off speed," I say, yeah, he has/had all of that.  But your definition, mine and a college coach's may be different (I sure didn't know how to judge if he was good enough - in fact, I wouldn't let him commit for a while because I was so unsure).

In other words, they will make the judgement, no formal recipe within reasonable bounds - keep on pitching in front of people and they will decide.

Last edited by justbaseball
This is research from 2012 in regards to what it Velocity wise to play DI, obviously a little dated, and only focuses on DI but this should give you a better idea.

Son is RHP at a mid-major.  He was getting looks from D2 and D3's once he hit 85, but he was also an all-state SS.  Never really talked to any of them, but there was real interest.  Ended up getting D1 interest and offer once he was consistently 87...touching 90.  He is now a junior.  Their pitching staff now has 5 guys who can be at 90 pretty consistently....all RHP.  Several guys 85-86, a few 87-88 and a lefty juco guy who is not much over 80.  He has friends from his years of travel that are at D2's....and were 84-85 at the time they committed....all RHP.   A LHP committed to a B1G while he was 85-86.

I went to PG and looked at the top 100 college recruiting classes for 2019s. As expected the top 25 are all loaded with 90+ RHPs, plus I must add 12-15 recruits per school (seems like too many to me). Anyway as the poser above states below that the drop off is significant. I always tell the anecdote of the BIG 12 tourney a few years back in OKC when Baylor played WVU and the Baylor kid hit 87 once and the LHP from WVU never hit 80. 2013 or 2014 I think.

After all the pitchers I've seen over the years, I've developed an inner radar..........no its not accurate........I call it " 80's"......

Get there (or near) and you can pitch somewhere......( CC, NAIA, D3,2,..etc..)...And you need one school to like you........ 

Now the variables.....add in these and its gives you more choices.......or them more choices / reasons to like you...

Tall, lefty, control. off-speed, grades, etc......you get the idea......the list of variables goes on and on........  

 

   

gutsnglory posted:

I understand that there are huge velocity ranges, but is there speed that would be a deal breaker no matter how good you are at other things? 

From what I have seen there is a minimum of 75, and this was for a VERY low totem pole D3.  So as far as a deal breaker, yes, no matter the control the kid has to be throwing at least 75 to pitch in college in my opinion.

Work on developing velocity. Never stop trying to improve. But unless you’re throwing at a jaw dropping velocity learn how to pitch. Work on command. Work on the mental side of pitching. If you work to optimize these aspects of pitching you will find your place in the game. 

Theres a lot involved with whether someone becomes a major conference D1 pitcher versus D3. But the most important thing is elevate yourself to be the best you can be. Ultimately you want to have a positive college baseball experience. When a friend’s son was in a dogpile after winning the D3 World Series he didn’t look any less happy than D1 players.

On the NCAA site, there are 299 D1 baseball teams listed.  Using an average of 15 pitchers per team, that is 4,485 guys pitching at the D1 level in any one season.  Just looking at the class of 2017, 292 RHP's threw 90 plus and 270 LHP's threw 85 plus(from PG site).  If you expand the parameters on the PG site to 2017 RHP's throwing 88 plus and LHP's throwing 84 plus, the list expands to 621 and 440.   I don't know how many of those players signed professionally but I'm guessing that number is close to how many were unaccounted for, leaving approximately 1000 pitchers above 88 and 84 available for D1's to recruit from HS.  Mix in JUCO's that sign D1 to pitch and that doesn't leave much room for guys below those thresholds to catch a coaches eyes, even if they are fully capable at competing at that level.  Fortunately, it does happen from time to time. 

Feel free to challenge my math on this, I won't get offended.  I looked at three D1's and two had 16 pitchers and the other 14, hardly a representative sample of all D1's.  Would also like to know how many 2017 HS pitchers signed professionally out of HS? 

Catch1721 posted:

On the NCAA site, there are 299 D1 baseball teams listed.  Using an average of 15 pitchers per team, that is 4,485 guys pitching at the D1 level in any one season.  Just looking at the class of 2017, 292 RHP's threw 90 plus and 270 LHP's threw 85 plus(from PG site).  If you expand the parameters on the PG site to 2017 RHP's throwing 88 plus and LHP's throwing 84 plus, the list expands to 621 and 440.   I don't know how many of those players signed professionally but I'm guessing that number is close to how many were unaccounted for, leaving approximately 1000 pitchers above 88 and 84 available for D1's to recruit from HS.  Mix in JUCO's that sign D1 to pitch and that doesn't leave much room for guys below those thresholds to catch a coaches eyes, even if they are fully capable at competing at that level.  Fortunately, it does happen from time to time. 

Feel free to challenge my math on this, I won't get offended.  I looked at three D1's and two had 16 pitchers and the other 14, hardly a representative sample of all D1's.  Would also like to know how many 2017 HS pitchers signed professionally out of HS? 

He said college.  Not D1.  How many college programs are there in the US?  Don't forget JUCO and NAIA....there is a huge wide door for many pitchers.

Disclaimer - Not real good in math...  So a quick search of The Google says there are around 1,140  four year colleges/universities (D1-D3 and NAIA) of all levels playing baseball.  Using 15 pitchers as a average ballpark, that means there are 17,100 pitchers needed at 4 year schools at any given time.  That is alot of arms!  Then you add another 500 or so junior colleges and that is another 7.5K or so for a very rough estimate of 24.5K +- arms needed in collegiate baseball...  When you look at it in that regard, there is a place for most kids that really want to play and are not caught up in the classification. 

http://www.scholarshipstats.com/baseball.html

Nonamedad posted:

I went to PG and looked at the top 100 college recruiting classes for 2019s. As expected the top 25 are all loaded with 90+ RHPs, plus I must add 12-15 recruits per school (seems like too many to me). Anyway as the poser above states below that the drop off is significant. I always tell the anecdote of the BIG 12 tourney a few years back in OKC when Baylor played WVU and the Baylor kid hit 87 once and the LHP from WVU never hit 80. 2013 or 2014 I think.

Just clarifying, are you saying there was a kid pitching for WVU who threw in the 70s?

If there are approximately 300 right hand pitchers in the PG database that have been 90 or better, I'm guessing there is another 50 or more  that aren't in the database.  That is in any given class there could be as many as 350 or more RHPs at 90 or better.  If you were to subtract the draft and considered Freshman, sophomores, juniors and seniors colleges account for 4 years, 4 recruiting classes.  that does not account for red shirt years.  Then there is another 50 or more LHPs throwing 90 or better each year.

If there were approximately 1,000 RHPs that fit the 88 mph range in the PG database, there are probably 300 or more that aren't in the database.  Then if there were 200 or so LHPs that can throw 88 each year, adding all the above each class has roughly 400 RHP and LHP that can throw 90 or better.  So in 4 recruiting classes there would be approximately 1,600 pitchers throwing 90 or better.  If they were divided equally among DI colleges, which they definitely are not, each DI school would have five or six 90 mph guys.  And that doesn't account for those that develop into 90+ after they enter college. Obviously the top programs get more of the 90+ guys.

Same goes with the 88 mph guys.  If there are 1500 in each recruiting class, that would account for 6,000 in four recruiting classes.  so approximately 6,000 pitchers. If they were split equally among 300 DI colleges, which doesn't happen, it would equal twenty pitchers to each program over four years. 

Then there are mid 80s pitchers that are much better than some 88-90 mph pitchers. 

So split equally by all DI programs, they would all have successfully recruited about six 90 or better pitchers and about twenty 88 or better pitchers.  That would be about 7 pitchers a year on average, but truth is the freshman and sophomore classes will have more than half so it is not uncommon to see more pitchers recruited each year.

Velocity is very important, but by itself it isn't enough.  There are mid 80s pitchers that are much better than some 88-90 mph pitchers. There are mid 80s pitchers that project to add much more velocity.  Every once in awhile you see a pitcher that throws around 80 that can be very successful against top DI hitters.  I don't think anyone should label them self a certain level of pitcher or player.  There are other people that end up doing that after they see you.  In our database we have examples of pitchers that topped out in the mid 80s while in HS, that have since thrown mid to upper 90s in the Big Leagues.

 

 

Keep in mind that a pitcher who throws 90, even once, has that follow him around for life. Even more so, a pitcher who throws 90 for a period of time, say a fall PG season. 

   What I am seeing at the senior HS level is pitchers whose Velo has dropped off. Saw one LHP ( lower D1) who has a nasty curve and hit 85-86 consistently last fall is now low 80's and getting hit. Another RHP who hit 88 ( lower D1) as a 16 yo is now low 80's at 18 yo. Another who threw low 90's, sat high 80's(P5) is now struggling to even pitch....this is more of a health issue. 

   I could go on and on, just in my little corner of the world. I see a lot of pitchers training for Velo, and achieving it as early as 14yo, but I wonder about the cost. Seems that a lot of these kids are burning out before they even reach college. 

Last edited by 57special
gutsnglory posted:

I understand that there are huge velocity ranges, but is there speed that would be a deal breaker no matter how good you are at other things? 

30 mph

That's the approximate minimum velo required for the ball to travel 60'-6" at a 45 degree launch angle.  Anything less and the ball cannot possibly cross the plate.

(Please excuse the pathetic engineering humor.)

We saw a few 75-77's at a lower level academic D3 in the MW, but for a RH pitcher, I would say there are few who peak at 79 or lower who ever get the chance to pitch in college baseball from what we saw.  Even at the Academic tryouts for the AZ Senior Classic, if a kid was not at least 85 in the morning tryouts, he was not invited to the Academic game. Of course for lefties, there is more of opportunity for "crafty lefties" but there does not seem to be any equivalent for RHPs unless they are referred to as "soft tossers."

This subject has been hammered countless times here...  some of the data from PG and others are great.  But agree with Pia Ump for short, quick answer...  "80's" gets you somewhere when it's the kind that you know it when you see it.

There are always stories about guys in 70's and they are true.  But here is a twist on those guys that doesn't often get discussed.  I think that most of those guys were not recruited as P's.  They did something else as a position player and due to a variety of possible circumstances, they got thrown into the P mix (emergency need, mop up, extensive tourney, rainouts force several consecutive games, etc.) and were able to get guys out.  So they got rolled out again until they can't get guys out...  Or, they are P's and get hurt and don't reach their projected velo so they re-invent themselves as a side-armer, spotter or junker.  But again, they were not recruited to be a 70's P.  It is not a number that you shoot for and say, "hey, I can throw in the 70's so I can make it as a P on a college team".  Just doesn't work that way.

Son is a pitcher, let's just say we have been very encouraged watching SEC baseball on Saturday on ESPN. Been seeing a lot of figures that look like snowmen in the little velocity box on TV. I hate seeing those pesky critters on my golf scorecard, but for a HS junior who has been told his whole life that you need to be 90+ to play D1its a nice surprise for my kid.

Velo numbers are huge at the recruiting level but don't mean a whole lot in a NCAA D1 game . HC's throw guys that get outs . Period. It doesn't matter if it's crossing the plate at 83 mph .

But HS parents of low velo pitchers be forewarned , That doesn't mean that they recruit guys that ' get outs' at the HS level.

85 on the left side / 88 on the right are the magic numbers for Mid-Upper Division 1 baseball.

HS underdog team making deep run in state playoffs recently vs a nationally ranked team.  Underdog team, starting RHP at 5-8, 140, and sitting 73-75 was untouched through 3.1 innings.  With score tied at 0-0 after 3 1/3, and a runner on 2nd due to Error, coaches assumed game would be decided by 1 or 2 runs, so they bring in their Big Gun who sits 88-90, tops at 92, to shut it down.   Got shelled.  Balls flying all over the field.  Place went from cow pasture to construction site in an instant.

First guy's 73mph was impossible to square up (had no-no thru 3.1),  but reliever's 88-90mph appeared to be BP for their hitters.  Wasn't pretty.

Now take a guess which one has the D-1 scholarship for next fall?

 

Last edited by #1 Assistant Coach
Nonamedad posted:

Son is a pitcher, let's just say we have been very encouraged watching SEC baseball on Saturday on ESPN. Been seeing a lot of figures that look like snowmen in the little velocity box on TV. I hate seeing those pesky critters on my golf scorecard, but for a HS junior who has been told his whole life that you need to be 90+ to play D1its a nice surprise for my kid.

Within 5 years I predict that spin rate will have a much bigger influence on who gets recruited where, but for now 80's is not likely enough to get you recruited to an SEC school to pitch.  Maybe 88/89.  Maybe...

There's a kid that was a Jr RHP on my son's team last season.  He pitched a total of 1 inning the entire season. Didn't get on the mound at all this season. 

He couldn't hit 80 if he was throwing downhill off the Empire State Building.

He's "signed" with a D3 to play next year.

Of course:

It's an out of state academic D3.

They have 60 guys on the "roster"

He's paying about $65,000 a year to go there.

But hey, A guy throwing in the 70's can pitch in college.

Over the years I've seen plenty of pitchers throwing in the mid-70's in D3.  They might have hit 80 something once or twice throwing in a Showcase.  But in games they are cruising in the 70's.   They aren't pitching, generally, for a powerhouse D3 that regularly attends the NCAA Regionals, but in lower level D3's?  Yes.

The key, as with anything in life really, is getting opportunities and then taking advantage of those opportunities when you get them.  A recruit throwing in the 70's is going to get less opportunities.  Even a lower level D3 coach is not going to highly prioritize a pitcher throwing 75.  But if you can get in front of them, show them you can locate, spin and move the ball and consistently get hitters out, it can and does happen.  

My sons D3 played a very competitive schedule, they were ranked in the top 20 SOS according to the whatever criteria the NCAA uses. I am sure it is a pretty comprehensive comparison of the higher D3 level. I think 14 of our 40 games season were vs teams playing in the Regional somewhere.

We see mostly low 80's, some higher, occasionally lower usually lefty junk ballers, a very few in the high 80's.

JMMS posted:

I'm seeing a lot of shifting in the college game now. I feel that locating your pitches is the most important thing to work on for young pitcher. Is it really impressive to watch a kid throw 93+ only look a the box score and see 45+ pitches after first 2 innings.   

The thing is, there are more & more high school kids every year who can do both (throw 93 and locate).

I'm a huge fan of Greg Maddux.  The pitchers who can really move the ball are fun to watch.  The thing is, the lower velocity pitcher has way less margin for error.  If he gets in a game where his secondary pitches aren't working, and his fastball ain't moving, he is gonna get flat out hammered.  While it is true that great hitters can sit on any velocity and crush it, the higher velocity pitcher has a better chance of success when he doesn't have his best stuff.  For that reason, and many more, the higher velocity pitcher will get more opportunities.

We all have to remember, great college coaches didn't get to their position in their career by accident.  They feel confident they can teach a 90's guy to hide the ball better and to develop better secondary pitches.  They feel confident they can teach a 6.5 runner how to hit.  Etc etc

3and2Fastball posted:
Nonamedad posted:

Son is a pitcher, let's just say we have been very encouraged watching SEC baseball on Saturday on ESPN. Been seeing a lot of figures that look like snowmen in the little velocity box on TV. I hate seeing those pesky critters on my golf scorecard, but for a HS junior who has been told his whole life that you need to be 90+ to play D1its a nice surprise for my kid.

Within 5 years I predict that spin rate will have a much bigger influence on who gets recruited where, but for now 80's is not likely enough to get you recruited to an SEC school to pitch.  Maybe 88/89.  Maybe...

I  invite you to watch this Saturday on ESPN college baseball (it's exclusively SEC where I am) to check velocity numbers. 90+ is the exception not the rule and that's mostly closers. 

Many times a velocity won't be shown, my conspiracy mind tells me it's because the number is too low. 

You may need 88-90 to get recruited, but anyone with eyes and a TV can see you don't need those numbers to pitch in the SEC, which is hardly mid level D1.

Watch the CWS, ESPN now shows many regional games, you really don't see the high velocity guys until 16 teams are left.

Nonamedad posted:
3and2Fastball posted:
Nonamedad posted:

Son is a pitcher, let's just say we have been very encouraged watching SEC baseball on Saturday on ESPN. Been seeing a lot of figures that look like snowmen in the little velocity box on TV. I hate seeing those pesky critters on my golf scorecard, but for a HS junior who has been told his whole life that you need to be 90+ to play D1its a nice surprise for my kid.

Within 5 years I predict that spin rate will have a much bigger influence on who gets recruited where, but for now 80's is not likely enough to get you recruited to an SEC school to pitch.  Maybe 88/89.  Maybe...

I  invite you to watch this Saturday on ESPN college baseball (it's exclusively SEC where I am) to check velocity numbers. 90+ is the exception not the rule and that's mostly closers. 

Many times a velocity won't be shown, my conspiracy mind tells me it's because the number is too low. 

You may need 88-90 to get recruited, but anyone with eyes and a TV can see you don't need those numbers to pitch in the SEC, which is hardly mid level D1.

Watch the CWS, ESPN now shows many regional games, you really don't see the high velocity guys until 16 teams are left.

I agree with you and I watch a lot of college baseball, specifically the SEC.  As an Arkansas fan, our Friday night guy is 92-95, Saturday is a LHP that is mostly 88-90, and Sunday is a guy that has had arm issues who will be anywhere from 89-96.  The closer is 94-96 and the top two relievers are 88-89 and 90-95.  The only teams with arms like that as far as I know are Florida and Oregon State which are basically the top 3 teams in the country.  Most teams have a dude on Friday night and a few hard throwing bullpen guys, but everyone else seems to be 87-89.  The key is to be 88 and be able to pitch and you can probably find a role on most SEC teams.  Arkansas has some big arms in the pen but they are inconsistent and the softer throwing guys are in front of them.  Texas A&M had a starter with a PG high of 92 and he never hit 90 once.  87-88 and would hit 89 some.  And that is at Arkansas where I think the gun is about 1-2 mph hot.   

You get down into the mid majors and you will see a lot of 85-87 RHP's.  I can recall watching DBU vs Clemson and it seemed like every DBU pitcher was 85-87.  Now, they all got shelled, but that is a different story. 

3and2Fastball posted:

We all have to remember, great college coaches didn't get to their position in their career by accident.  They feel confident they can teach a 90's guy to hide the ball better and to develop better secondary pitches.  They feel confident they can teach a 6.5 runner how to hit.  Etc etc

I agree that high velo is helpful, and I agree that college coaches feel confident . . . but if you look at the percentage of recruits who wash out, don't see the field, transfer, etc., I'd argue that that confidence is misplaced (I know you said "great college coaches" but I suspect that the not-so-great coaches have the same confidence). Very often a college coach will have seen a recruit play just a few times, perhaps a half-dozen. Their ability to assess and project is not nearly as good as they think it is. 

It's not college coaches, specifically -- humans generally over-estimate their own abilities. 

3and2Fastball posted:

For every 90's velocity kid who ends up being a bust, there's 3 more waiting in line to take his spot (or so it seems at least!)

Right on cue, Baseball America article today on this topic: www.baseballamerica.com/storie...ort-of-expectations/

 

"I think for a long time, in general, we as an industry have been very bad at how we evaluate high school pitching,” an American League crosschecker said. "We keep doing the same thing over and over again. These flamethrower guys get pushed up toward the top. If the guy is not throwing 100 (mph) he’s not as high on lists. But look at the guys who keep actually showing up in the majors. Walker, Sanchez—(they have) good arm actions, good deliveries, athleticism, an ease of operation. They looked like starters all the way.

"Even though it keeps not working, we’re obsessed with 18-year-old kids throwing 96-99. It’s safe, right? The kid is probably huge, he’s throwing 100, he shows up on the field. It’s going to be very difficult for anybody to be like, ‘This is a ridiculous pick.’ Some 6-foot-5 dude throws one bullet at 100 and everyone in player development is happy. But we have the data. We have the history. We know that shouldn’t be the reaction.”

 

Is the scout referring to Aaron Sanchez who goes 93-95 with his two seamer, and Taijuan Walker who averages 94 on his fastball and a 89-90 splitter? (Not to mention Walker's arm blowing up recently)

Those guys were both first round draft picks out of high school who were 93+ in their senior years. It's not like they were mid 80's guys who grew into 90's guys.

Rob T posted:
baseballhs posted:

So if there are scouts in the stands and you are throwing hard but just missing, do you let up on speed a little bit to get more accuracy, or  and keep throwing hard?  This has been a discussion in our house about the summer.

For the guys who are successful, the two are not mutually exclusive.

In a perfect world you have both everyday.  

There are so many variables. Is the stadium gun accurate? Do these guns need periodic calibration to make sure they are accurate?

As someone mentioned earlier, most guys throw mid to high 80's.  Son's team has a Friday guy that was hitting 95-96 in the 7th inning, but they have an All American Closer who lives 80-82.  When the closer is on, he is virtually unhittable.   When his control is off, he gets hammered.

From what I've seen, the 95-96 guy on son's team can use his velo to get an important K when he's in trouble.  The other starters don't have that little extra giddy up to help them get out of jams. Say what you want, but a little extra velo never hurt anybody.

Another thing, these guys may be capable of throwing harder, but that is 100% not the goal. It is to get people out, and if they can have more control by throwing a little slower, and that helps them get people out, they will throw a little slower.

Seeing guys on TV throwing 85 and thinking that is the magic number, is just not realistic.  If Ryan hadn't been touching 90, and sitting mostly 85 - 88, he wouldn't be where he is now.  

rynoattack posted:

There are so many variables. Is the stadium gun accurate? Do these guns need periodic calibration to make sure they are accurate?

As someone mentioned earlier, most guys throw mid to high 80's.  Son's team has a Friday guy that was hitting 95-96 in the 7th inning, but they have an All American Closer who lives 80-82.  When the closer is on, he is virtually unhittable.   When his control is off, he gets hammered.

From what I've seen, the 95-96 guy on son's team can use his velo to get an important K when he's in trouble.  The other starters don't have that little extra giddy up to help them get out of jams. Say what you want, but a little extra velo never hurt anybody.

Another thing, these guys may be capable of throwing harder, but that is 100% not the goal. It is to get people out, and if they can have more control by throwing a little slower, and that helps them get people out, they will throw a little slower.

Seeing guys on TV throwing 85 and thinking that is the magic number, is just not realistic.  If Ryan hadn't been touching 90, and sitting mostly 85 - 88, he wouldn't be where he is now.  

I should clarify.  Not scouts, coaches.  I know they want both, but back to the question in this thread...would they rather fix barely missing the zone but throwing hard, or slow it down  (which puts you back in the pack) and hitting all your spots?

I think college coaches want outs. They also want velo, but college coaches arent generally playing the long game; they need immediate results (because they only get 11.7 chances; pro ball has over 70 new guys per team every year).

Proball plays the long game.

Most college PCs - especially guys whose careers ended in college - dont generally know how to develop pitchers. And college coaches generally are militantly anti-walk. (I still remember my son telling me his pro PC complemented him after walking a bomber to get to the lefty hitter [who ked on 4 pitches]- that's part of the maturation in the pros that college coaches generally don't have time to develop. )

This discussion reminds me of the college tour question: is it better to get an "A" in a regular course or a "B" in an AP. The correct goal would be an "A" in the AP.

As to what is easier to teach - control or velo - with S it was velo; he was always shaky on control and many coaches believed he could be "fixed." He never was truly fixed for long periods. But a LHP sitting low 90s will always find a believer who thinks it can be "fixed."

 

LSU vs Auburn (they are pretty good btw) both Auburn guys were 91/92, I didn't see the LSU starter but the second LSU guy hit 90, but had a long inning, his next inning was 87/88, third guy was a lefty FB topped out at 83, nest guy was 88/89. LSU had given up and the pitchers were rarely used kids, 13 and 14 appearances, but still.

My 2019 RHP by my guess is sitting 83-85 (IMO based on last summer and his improvement) .  He's had a very nice year and recently a couple of mid-level D1 were out to see him with their radar guns.  Cool to see, but no feedback or reaching out afterwards, even though he gave up no runs during his outing.

It's very discouraging that we're hearing crickets, even though I've always known he's had to make another jump in velo to be considered mid-D1.  I think it's now confirmed for me.

Going to a couple June showcases.  If we continue to receive no immediate feedback, then we'll focus on DIII....unfortunately DIII are typically smaller schools, and son right now doesn't want that.

Keeping it all to myself for now, as I don't want to discourage him, but we'll need to have a good heart to heart at some point.

You are delusional if you think you will be recruited (and offered a scholarship) by an SEC school unless you hit 88 - 90 as a junior in HS - or before.  Exception would be  lefty that has good secondary stuff.  SEC schools are already done with 2019 recruiting and are looking at 2020 players now. Here is a real life example : Texas A&M has 16 active pitchers on the current roster. Half of them sit over 90.  The other half sit 87 - 89.  Almost all can throw 90 if they need too. Only exception is one soft tossing lefty at 82 - 85, but he doesn't pitch a lot. There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

adbono posted:

You are delusional if you think you will be recruited (and offered a scholarship) by an SEC school unless you hit 88 - 90 as a junior in HS - or before.  Exception would be  lefty that has good secondary stuff.  SEC schools are already done with 2019 recruiting and are looking at 2020 players now. Here is a real life example : Texas A&M has 16 active pitchers on the current roster. Half of them sit over 90.  The other half sit 87 - 89.  Almost all can throw 90 if they need too. Only exception is one soft tossing lefty at 82 - 85, but he doesn't pitch a lot. There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

My 2018 son, RHP, was 88-90 consistently his Sophomore year. Exactly ZERO schools were interested until he topped 93 the following spring. One of his LHP team mates was 84-87 his Sophomore spring and still to this day has not touched 88 was heavily recruited by SEC schools.

What's it mean? There are a lot of RHP's, so you gotta find ways to stand out and seek your fit. LHP's get taken a bit earlier.

Fast forward, son had a terrific HS pitching career on/in a mediocre program. It didn't cost him a bit in terms of recruitment (he done one PG event, coincidentally pitched at 2am, so I'm pretty sure that really doesn't count). He had plenty of choices that continued to surface well after he committed to a mid major, even some pro scouts and a cross checker surfaced, all to be told he's going to college. He chose a program that fit his wants and needs to better himself in life and the baseball is pretty good too.

There are a lot of players that never make it to campus and even more that figure out they may have a very limited role at a high power program that choose to move on.

 

 

baseballhs posted:
Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

The numbers I speak of are the 1200 that get drafted vs. the maybe 120 that make an SEC roster.

In other words, if you are good enough to play for the SEC there is a real good chance you have at least had conversations with a scout to determine draft-ability.

baseballhs posted:
3and2Fastball posted:

Just because you see SEC pitchers getting gunned in games throwing 85-86 doesn't mean that is the hardest they can throw.

If you max out at 85-86, does that mean you can consistently cruise at your max velocity for multiple innings while moving the ball and throwing strikes?  Good luck convincing SEC coaches of that.

We have a junior RHP committed to an SEC that rarely touches 90.    I’m not sure how it will all pan out but I think the jr is a great pitcher but I dont see him drafted out of hs.  At least not in a round he would consider.

By “rarely” you mean that he does touch 90.  Don’t get me wrong, I think that there is too much emphasis on velocity and not enough on getting hitters out.  But high velo is what gets you in the door.  And as someone else so accurately said earlier in this thread “for the guys that are successful the 2 (velo & outs) are not mutually exclusive.” 

Rob T posted:
baseballhs posted:
Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

The numbers I speak of are the 1200 that get drafted vs. the maybe 120 that make an SEC roster.

In other words, if you are good enough to play for the SEC there is a real good chance you have at least had conversations with a scout to determine draft-ability.

100% correct 

Rob T posted:
baseballhs posted:
Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

The numbers I speak of are the 1200 that get drafted vs. the maybe 120 that make an SEC roster.

In other words, if you are good enough to play for the SEC there is a real good chance you have at least had conversations with a scout to determine draft-ability.

Isn't that true of every conference? The number drafted in a year (1200) is always far greater than the number of players at the conference in a specific  class.

2019Dad posted:

For recruiting purposes, I think there is a distinction between a number that a kid has touched in a game, and a number that is "verified." (The college coach has seen it with his own eyes, or PG or PBR or another independent party has recorded and published it). The former isn't terribly important for recruiting. 

Agreed.  And if coach believes there is still "projection remaining" he can safely bank on the former.  But if he believes player is at end of physical development, with little or no projection remaining, then most likely will not venture beyond the latter (the "verified").

57special posted:

Well, of course it has to be a verifiable number, not some random guy at a local HS/youth game.

Yeah, what I meant is, even if it's not some random guy . . . Example: son's HS team guns its varsity pitchers in all games. 2019 pitcher touches 90 in a winter game, recorded by the high school on its Stalker. That doesn't mean much -- during the quiet period, no college coaches there, not verified by a third party . . . just doesn't mean a lot because, um, let's just say there is rampant exaggeration of velo in HS baseball so reports like that are treated with skepticism (and rightly so)

Nonamedad posted:

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Early showcase season max velocity versus fatigued end of season cruising velocity. It also may be ironing out mechanics and getting better movement on the ball may have decreased velocity.

Last edited by RJM

Guys humped it up for the guns at the events while really only sitting 84-86, maybe even a little lower.   Don't believe people around here that you can't pitch D1 or "Won't get recruited" if you don't consistently hit 90.   Either posters on this site don't know what they are talking about, or power 5 coaches don't know what they are doing.  To be the number 1 stud at top power five schools you will likely be over 90.  To be a decent pitcher at power 5 requires 84-86, good command and a good off-speed.

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

RJM posted:
Nonamedad posted:

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Early showcase season max velocity versus fatigued end of season cruising velocity. It also may be ironing out mechanics and getting better movement on the ball may have decreased velocity.

Not trying to be a smart-ass.... ironing out mechanics and getting better movement may have decreased velocity... in English this tells me they were throwing as hard as they could and couldn't get anywhere near the strike zone so they had to slow down and actually pitch to throw strikes. And when they did get lucky enough to throw a strike with all their might the pitchwas so straight and flat it got tattooed. So they had to slow down again make the ball move to really get hitters out.

3and2Fastball posted:

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

Well, listen to people on here and they will tell you that cruising 85-86 makes a guy a chump.   Some might tell you that it would be exceedingly hard to get recruited to a Power 5 team cruising 85-86.   My point is that I am not so sure the know it alls know all they would like to  think they know.

Don't get me wrong, throwing 90+ is great, especially with command and good off speed.   I just have seen that it is not an absolute for pitching SEC baseball.   Not by a long shot.

Teaching Elder posted:
3and2Fastball posted:

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

Well, listen to people on here and they will tell you that cruising 85-86 makes a guy a chump.   Some might tell you that it would be exceedingly hard to get recruited to a Power 5 team cruising 85-86.   My point is that I am not so sure the know it alls know all they would like to  think they know.

Don't get me wrong, throwing 90+ is great, especially with command and good off speed.   I just have seen that it is not an absolute for pitching SEC baseball.   Not by a long shot.

I am at the D2 JuCo World Series in Enid, Oklahoma watching a game right now. The starting pitcher for NOC -Enid has been sitting 89-91 the entire game and has hit 93 at least a handful of times.  He is a freshman and is NOC-Enid’s #3 starter.  As a RHP that is pretty much what it takes to be a guy that matters in the SEC.  There are plenty of really good hard throwing RHPs.  They are all over the baseball landscape. The “know it alls” that you refer to are us guys that scout, recruit, and coach these hard throwing kids - while you watch TV.  So you can be as impressed as you want to be with 85-86 mph.  And there is a place where that plays just fine - it’s called D3. 

Nonamedad posted:

But don't most of the kids that go the juco route have grade issues that preclude them from getting into 4 year schools? And most are trying to get drafted right away, so they don't want to go to a 4 year univ and wait to become draft eligible.

Most?  I don't think so. I'm not a know it all, but there are plenty with grade issues, but the kids who do well academically in Juco then qualify to get into 4 year schools.  I've seen it happen plenty of times.  Unfortunately, I've also seen kids whose academic troubles continue, so they can't play in Juco either. There are also many who want to be drafted, like you say,  but many more who were overlooked during recruiting, whether because they were late bloomers or didn't get themselves in front of the right eyes or any number of reasons. Another reason I think a lot of student-athletes go Juco is the same reason a lot of students go Juco -- it's a hella lot cheaper and you can live at home if you want to.

Nonamedad posted:
RJM posted:
Nonamedad posted:

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Early showcase season max velocity versus fatigued end of season cruising velocity. It also may be ironing out mechanics and getting better movement on the ball may have decreased velocity.

Not trying to be a smart-ass.... ironing out mechanics and getting better movement may have decreased velocity... in English this tells me they were throwing as hard as they could and couldn't get anywhere near the strike zone so they had to slow down and actually pitch to throw strikes. And when they did get lucky enough to throw a strike with all their might the pitchwas so straight and flat it got tattooed. So they had to slow down again make the ball move to really get hitters out.

The max number on the PG website is from when the pitcher aired out his fastball. It doesn’t matter if it was a strike or not. It doesn't matter if it was straight as an arrow and hit 450 feet. All the pitcher was trying to accomplish was max velocity in a showcase setting. It’s a number to show a scout/coach what kind of tools he can expect to work with.

My son was moved from short to center in high school and his travel team by post soph summer. In individual showcase drills he did both infield and outfield. His travel coach told him not to worry about not having played short recently. He was told to throw hard for max velocity and not worry if he throws the ball across the infield into the third row. Accuracy can be fixed. Velocity not so much.

Last edited by RJM

Re: cruising 85/86 mph

Ten years ago I was chatting with a Phillies scout at an A10 game. It was obvious he was there to see the 90+ closer. But he was there occassionally gunning every pitcher. I asked him the average cruising speed in the A10.

Ten years ago it was mid 80’s in the A10. No way, no how is the typical P5 pitcher throwing mid 80’s. There are some P5s cruising mid 80’s. All the 90+ pitchers got their shot before these guys.

3and2Fastball posted:

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

See this is where I find the recruiting stuff confusing with my son. I agree a lot of the players I've seen throw a higher top speed than crushing speed but my son doesn't. Last summer his highest velocity was 83. He got that at two showcases and in two games there was a gun at. One of the games they recorded every pitch. Pitch 1 was 83 and pitch 100 was 83. He hit 83 30 something times. His final pitch number 118 was 82. So he does sit at his top velo. Which worries me since velocity is so important in recruiting. There are a few kids around here we know that have higher top velos posted but pitch at a lower velocity than my son. I'm worried this is going to hurt him in recruiting. 

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