I understand that there are huge velocity ranges, but is there speed that would be a deal breaker no matter how good you are at other things?
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"How good you are at other things"... What do you mean, specifically? Are you talking about being a two way player? Pitching and playing another position as well? Or being a Pitcher/DH? That kind of thing
There are pitchers at the low level D3's that throw high 70's to low 80's
3and2Fastball posted:"How good you are at other things"... What do you mean, specifically? Are you talking about being a two way player? Pitching and playing another position as well? Or being a Pitcher/DH? That kind of thing
There are pitchers at the low level D3's that throw high 70's to low 80's
By "other things i mostly meant control and off speed.
We'll see what others I have to say. I've personally seen plenty of D3 pitchers throw fastballs in the high 70's in games. Generally most will say you need to throw 80 to get college interest at the lowest levels
85+ as a lefty pitcher will get you D1 interest. High 80's as a right hand pitcher for D1
gutsnglory posted:I understand that there are huge velocity ranges, but is there speed that would be a deal breaker no matter how good you are at other things?
No. There is not one speed or situation where a coach is going to say I'm not interested. There is more to pitching than velocity and I could rattle off a dozen or so things a college recruiter is going to look at holistically to make a determination if they are initially interested in a recruit. If you want an answer, I think you are going to have to ask the coach themselves and I really don't think that is a good question to ask. I think a better question would be to ask "what are the velocity ranges of your current pitching staff". So, this will give you an idea of the range across a typical college pitching staff of 17 players on a roster of 35 players.
There are many other considerations (movement, control, projectability, coachability, work ethic, frame, mechanics, etc..) across a wide variety of schools and situations. My son played with a pitcher (D1) who officially played exactly 1 inning in his entire 4 year college career beyond practice. He was a submariner and probably couldn't break a glass window with his fastball. He graduated with a 0.00 ERA. Do you know what he had going for him? He was very smart and his family endowed the Athletic Director's salary. He is currently in the front office of an MLB team. LIke I said, there are all kinds of considerations that schools look at. ;-)
check out this topic. There is some good research in it.
http://community.hsbaseballweb...r-at-certain-schools
Answer that Dads want to hear: 75 and your son is that special snowflake
Answer that is more close to real: 87-93 at least once in front of a scout, depending on school, for weekend starters
(Dad thought bubble... but, but I saw a kid throw a few two seamers in relief in a D3 game during the week once at 78..)
Think of this as a pyramid. Hundreds can touch 90, Thousands can touch 85. Everyone else can touch 80. Which group do you want to be in? Which group do you want to recruit from?
All the answers above are right, and there are many more that are right depending on the situation.
Our younger son, 5-10 RHP, 85 mph in HS, pitched at a Power-5 school and left barely touching 90 but as the all-time innings-pitched leader at that school. "Spectacular command" is how one scout describes him (now pitching in double-A).
So when you say, "By other things i mostly meant control and off speed," I say, yeah, he has/had all of that. But your definition, mine and a college coach's may be different (I sure didn't know how to judge if he was good enough - in fact, I wouldn't let him commit for a while because I was so unsure).
In other words, they will make the judgement, no formal recipe within reasonable bounds - keep on pitching in front of people and they will decide.
This is research from 2012 in regards to what it Velocity wise to play DI, obviously a little dated, and only focuses on DI but this should give you a better idea.
However, for a variety of reasons, "all over the map" does not equate to "random distribution". HS pitchers who aspire to pitch in college should have a reasonable idea of where they fit in by the end of summer following their Junior year.
Important disclaimer: Although people often offer the fuzzy disclaimer that "velocity is overrated", there are some very good reasons to know your best velocity at the end of Junior year, and to know a little about where that number points to on "the map" of college programs. For better or worse, coaches will use your top velocity to help them project whether you are likely to develop into a competitive pitcher at their college program level.
College-level is certainly not as simple as "D1" versus other levels and it's even difficult to break programs down by conference. There are currently 297 D-1 college baseball programs spread over 30 conferences as listed by the NCAA.
Just to take one example, the Pac-12 conference, contains the NCAA's top-ranked program in 2012 (UCLA) and the program ranked #200 (Utah). That's quite a spread in rankings but the ave. HS velocity of pitchers who eventually appeared on a Pac-12 baseball roster in 2012 doesn't vary greatly:
For eventual Pac-12 RHPs:
1 UCLA ave = 91.5
4 Arizona ave = 89.7
6 Oregon ave = 86.7
11 SStanford ave = 90.9
27 Oregon St. ave = 91
15 Arizona St. ave = 88.8
55 U of Wash ave = 86
59 Wash St. ave = 85.5
99 USC ave = 89
200 Utah ave = 87.8
Remember: These are ave. velocities of RHPs when they were in HS, before they found their way onto a Pac-12 baseball roster somewhere.
These numbers do say something important about the average expectations of Pac-12 coaches concerning who they will recruit into their programs. Unfair and short-sighted? Maybe, but it is very important to be aware of the expectations of people who may (or may not) be interested in your potential to play for them.
Perhaps a more revealing breakdown of "D-1 velocity" is to separate out small groups of programs based on their place in the NCAA rankings:
25 Vanderbilt
26 Ole Miss
27 Oregon St.
Ave HS velo of RHP pitchers who eventually appeared on the 2012 roster of one these programs was: ave = 90.5 +/- 2. (That means that about 70% of the RHPs in this group pitched in the range: 88.5 - 92.5 mph when they were in High School. Ave HS velo of LHPs who eventually played at these schools was: ave = 88.5 +/- 2.5 mph. (again, this means that 70% of LHPs for these programs were in the range 86 - 91 mph in High School.
40 New Mexico St.
47 Gonzaga
55 U of Wash
Fairly substantial drop-off here: The ave HS velo of RHPs who eventually appeared on these rosters was: ave = 85.5 +/- 2.5. Thus, 70% of these RHPs were in the 83 - 88 mph range in HS. For the LHPs in these programs, the HS ave velo was: ave = 82.5 +/- 2.5, with 70% falling in the range of 80 - 85 mph. (The universal tolerance for lower velo from LHPs has been known forever--you will see this pattern repeated over and over).
75 Nevada
80 Wash St.
83 Fresno St.
88 Hawaii
Very similar RHP numbers to the #40 - #55 programs: Ave HS velo for RHPs who eventually got a roster spot on one of these programs was: ave = 85.5 +/- 3.5 mph. So, the range of RHP High School velocities was a bit wider at this level, 82 - 89 mph, but the average expectation was still about 86 mph. Interestingly, the LHP HS velo numbers were a bit higher for this group, ave = 86 +/-3 mph.
99 USC
101 Loyola Marymount
109 Sacramento St.
119 U of San Francisco
123 U of Portland
131 St. Mary's
Ave HS velo of RHPs who eventually played for these programs was: ave = 86.5 +/- 3 mph. Only 1 mph different than the averages fro the #40 - #55 group and the #75 - #88 group. Ave HS LHP velo = 85.5 +/- 5 mph.
165 Xavier
177 Santa Clara
199 Seattle U.
200 Utah
206 Davidson
210 San Jose St.
Ave HS velo of RHPs who eventually played on these teams was: ave = 85 mph +/- 4 mph. For LHPs, ave = 82.5 +/- 4 mph. The std dev on these numbers leads to fairly wide ranges for the 70% groups: RHPs = 81 - 89 mph; LHPs = 78.5 - 86.5.
Let's look at "the bottom of the barrel" of D-1 NCAA rankings:
288 Youngstown St.
295 Florida A&M
296 Alabama A&M
There was not enough public data (i.e., Perfect Game velocities) to evaluate HS LHP velo for pitchers who eventually showed up on a roster for one of these programs. There was also not very much RHP data available for these pitchers, but enough to make a point. The ave High School velo of RHPs on these rosters was: ave = 81 +/- 4.5 mph. A pretty low average with a wide range. Thus, 70% of RHPs who pitched for these teams had HS velo in the range = 76.5 - 85.5 mph.
As has been pointed out elsewhere in this thread, it may not make much sense to include JCs in a comparison w/ most D1, D2, and D3 programs because academic ability (grades, SAT or ACT scores, etc) and economic factors may come strongly into play. It's probably very safe to assume that there is significant overlap between the average HS velocity expectations for the top half of all D2 programs and many of the D1 programs. Also, may be safe to assume that there is overlap between expectations at top D3 programs and many good D2s and some of the D1s.
What it looks like to me is: Almost everybody who is capable of pitching in high school can probably find a "fit" for themselves in a college program somewhere at some level. However, this is not really saying enough....the big picture really requires a good college "fit" that depends on each of these important factors: Academics, economics, social factors, and your ability to pitch a baseball.
Important disclaimer: Although people often offer the fuzzy disclaimer that "velocity is overrated", there are some very good reasons to know your best velocity at the end of Junior year, and to know a little about where that number points to on "the map" of college programs. For better or worse, coaches will use your top velocity to help them project whether you are likely to develop into a competitive pitcher at their college program level.
College-level is certainly not as simple as "D1" versus other levels and it's even difficult to break programs down by conference. There are currently 297 D-1 college baseball programs spread over 30 conferences as listed by the NCAA.
Just to take one example, the Pac-12 conference, contains the NCAA's top-ranked program in 2012 (UCLA) and the program ranked #200 (Utah). That's quite a spread in rankings but the ave. HS velocity of pitchers who eventually appeared on a Pac-12 baseball roster in 2012 doesn't vary greatly:
For eventual Pac-12 RHPs:
1 UCLA ave = 91.5
4 Arizona ave = 89.7
6 Oregon ave = 86.7
11 SStanford ave = 90.9
27 Oregon St. ave = 91
15 Arizona St. ave = 88.8
55 U of Wash ave = 86
59 Wash St. ave = 85.5
99 USC ave = 89
200 Utah ave = 87.8
Remember: These are ave. velocities of RHPs when they were in HS, before they found their way onto a Pac-12 baseball roster somewhere.
These numbers do say something important about the average expectations of Pac-12 coaches concerning who they will recruit into their programs. Unfair and short-sighted? Maybe, but it is very important to be aware of the expectations of people who may (or may not) be interested in your potential to play for them.
Perhaps a more revealing breakdown of "D-1 velocity" is to separate out small groups of programs based on their place in the NCAA rankings:
25 Vanderbilt
26 Ole Miss
27 Oregon St.
Ave HS velo of RHP pitchers who eventually appeared on the 2012 roster of one these programs was: ave = 90.5 +/- 2. (That means that about 70% of the RHPs in this group pitched in the range: 88.5 - 92.5 mph when they were in High School. Ave HS velo of LHPs who eventually played at these schools was: ave = 88.5 +/- 2.5 mph. (again, this means that 70% of LHPs for these programs were in the range 86 - 91 mph in High School.
40 New Mexico St.
47 Gonzaga
55 U of Wash
Fairly substantial drop-off here: The ave HS velo of RHPs who eventually appeared on these rosters was: ave = 85.5 +/- 2.5. Thus, 70% of these RHPs were in the 83 - 88 mph range in HS. For the LHPs in these programs, the HS ave velo was: ave = 82.5 +/- 2.5, with 70% falling in the range of 80 - 85 mph. (The universal tolerance for lower velo from LHPs has been known forever--you will see this pattern repeated over and over).
75 Nevada
80 Wash St.
83 Fresno St.
88 Hawaii
Very similar RHP numbers to the #40 - #55 programs: Ave HS velo for RHPs who eventually got a roster spot on one of these programs was: ave = 85.5 +/- 3.5 mph. So, the range of RHP High School velocities was a bit wider at this level, 82 - 89 mph, but the average expectation was still about 86 mph. Interestingly, the LHP HS velo numbers were a bit higher for this group, ave = 86 +/-3 mph.
99 USC
101 Loyola Marymount
109 Sacramento St.
119 U of San Francisco
123 U of Portland
131 St. Mary's
Ave HS velo of RHPs who eventually played for these programs was: ave = 86.5 +/- 3 mph. Only 1 mph different than the averages fro the #40 - #55 group and the #75 - #88 group. Ave HS LHP velo = 85.5 +/- 5 mph.
165 Xavier
177 Santa Clara
199 Seattle U.
200 Utah
206 Davidson
210 San Jose St.
Ave HS velo of RHPs who eventually played on these teams was: ave = 85 mph +/- 4 mph. For LHPs, ave = 82.5 +/- 4 mph. The std dev on these numbers leads to fairly wide ranges for the 70% groups: RHPs = 81 - 89 mph; LHPs = 78.5 - 86.5.
Let's look at "the bottom of the barrel" of D-1 NCAA rankings:
288 Youngstown St.
295 Florida A&M
296 Alabama A&M
There was not enough public data (i.e., Perfect Game velocities) to evaluate HS LHP velo for pitchers who eventually showed up on a roster for one of these programs. There was also not very much RHP data available for these pitchers, but enough to make a point. The ave High School velo of RHPs on these rosters was: ave = 81 +/- 4.5 mph. A pretty low average with a wide range. Thus, 70% of RHPs who pitched for these teams had HS velo in the range = 76.5 - 85.5 mph.
As has been pointed out elsewhere in this thread, it may not make much sense to include JCs in a comparison w/ most D1, D2, and D3 programs because academic ability (grades, SAT or ACT scores, etc) and economic factors may come strongly into play. It's probably very safe to assume that there is significant overlap between the average HS velocity expectations for the top half of all D2 programs and many of the D1 programs. Also, may be safe to assume that there is overlap between expectations at top D3 programs and many good D2s and some of the D1s.
What it looks like to me is: Almost everybody who is capable of pitching in high school can probably find a "fit" for themselves in a college program somewhere at some level. However, this is not really saying enough....the big picture really requires a good college "fit" that depends on each of these important factors: Academics, economics, social factors, and your ability to pitch a baseball.
Son is RHP at a mid-major. He was getting looks from D2 and D3's once he hit 85, but he was also an all-state SS. Never really talked to any of them, but there was real interest. Ended up getting D1 interest and offer once he was consistently 87...touching 90. He is now a junior. Their pitching staff now has 5 guys who can be at 90 pretty consistently....all RHP. Several guys 85-86, a few 87-88 and a lefty juco guy who is not much over 80. He has friends from his years of travel that are at D2's....and were 84-85 at the time they committed....all RHP. A LHP committed to a B1G while he was 85-86.
I went to PG and looked at the top 100 college recruiting classes for 2019s. As expected the top 25 are all loaded with 90+ RHPs, plus I must add 12-15 recruits per school (seems like too many to me). Anyway as the poser above states below that the drop off is significant. I always tell the anecdote of the BIG 12 tourney a few years back in OKC when Baylor played WVU and the Baylor kid hit 87 once and the LHP from WVU never hit 80. 2013 or 2014 I think.
After all the pitchers I've seen over the years, I've developed an inner radar..........no its not accurate........I call it " 80's"......
Get there (or near) and you can pitch somewhere......( CC, NAIA, D3,2,..etc..)...And you need one school to like you........
Now the variables.....add in these and its gives you more choices.......or them more choices / reasons to like you...
Tall, lefty, control. off-speed, grades, etc......you get the idea......the list of variables goes on and on........
gutsnglory posted:I understand that there are huge velocity ranges, but is there speed that would be a deal breaker no matter how good you are at other things?
From what I have seen there is a minimum of 75, and this was for a VERY low totem pole D3. So as far as a deal breaker, yes, no matter the control the kid has to be throwing at least 75 to pitch in college in my opinion.
Work on developing velocity. Never stop trying to improve. But unless you’re throwing at a jaw dropping velocity learn how to pitch. Work on command. Work on the mental side of pitching. If you work to optimize these aspects of pitching you will find your place in the game.
Theres a lot involved with whether someone becomes a major conference D1 pitcher versus D3. But the most important thing is elevate yourself to be the best you can be. Ultimately you want to have a positive college baseball experience. When a friend’s son was in a dogpile after winning the D3 World Series he didn’t look any less happy than D1 players.
On the NCAA site, there are 299 D1 baseball teams listed. Using an average of 15 pitchers per team, that is 4,485 guys pitching at the D1 level in any one season. Just looking at the class of 2017, 292 RHP's threw 90 plus and 270 LHP's threw 85 plus(from PG site). If you expand the parameters on the PG site to 2017 RHP's throwing 88 plus and LHP's throwing 84 plus, the list expands to 621 and 440. I don't know how many of those players signed professionally but I'm guessing that number is close to how many were unaccounted for, leaving approximately 1000 pitchers above 88 and 84 available for D1's to recruit from HS. Mix in JUCO's that sign D1 to pitch and that doesn't leave much room for guys below those thresholds to catch a coaches eyes, even if they are fully capable at competing at that level. Fortunately, it does happen from time to time.
Feel free to challenge my math on this, I won't get offended. I looked at three D1's and two had 16 pitchers and the other 14, hardly a representative sample of all D1's. Would also like to know how many 2017 HS pitchers signed professionally out of HS?
Catch1721 posted:On the NCAA site, there are 299 D1 baseball teams listed. Using an average of 15 pitchers per team, that is 4,485 guys pitching at the D1 level in any one season. Just looking at the class of 2017, 292 RHP's threw 90 plus and 270 LHP's threw 85 plus(from PG site). If you expand the parameters on the PG site to 2017 RHP's throwing 88 plus and LHP's throwing 84 plus, the list expands to 621 and 440. I don't know how many of those players signed professionally but I'm guessing that number is close to how many were unaccounted for, leaving approximately 1000 pitchers above 88 and 84 available for D1's to recruit from HS. Mix in JUCO's that sign D1 to pitch and that doesn't leave much room for guys below those thresholds to catch a coaches eyes, even if they are fully capable at competing at that level. Fortunately, it does happen from time to time.
Feel free to challenge my math on this, I won't get offended. I looked at three D1's and two had 16 pitchers and the other 14, hardly a representative sample of all D1's. Would also like to know how many 2017 HS pitchers signed professionally out of HS?
He said college. Not D1. How many college programs are there in the US? Don't forget JUCO and NAIA....there is a huge wide door for many pitchers.
The only point I would add is that the top programs get the Lions share of top pitching, the top 75 may get 50% or more of the total. So that still leaves 125 D1s looking for arms.
Nonamedad posted:The only point I would add is that the top programs get the Lions share of top pitching, the top 75 may get 50% or more of the total. So that still leaves 125 D1s looking for arms.
Typo -- that leaves 225 D1s looking for arms
Disclaimer - Not real good in math... So a quick search of The Google says there are around 1,140 four year colleges/universities (D1-D3 and NAIA) of all levels playing baseball. Using 15 pitchers as a average ballpark, that means there are 17,100 pitchers needed at 4 year schools at any given time. That is alot of arms! Then you add another 500 or so junior colleges and that is another 7.5K or so for a very rough estimate of 24.5K +- arms needed in collegiate baseball... When you look at it in that regard, there is a place for most kids that really want to play and are not caught up in the classification.
2019Dad posted:Nonamedad posted:The only point I would add is that the top programs get the Lions share of top pitching, the top 75 may get 50% or more of the total. So that still leaves 125 D1s looking for arms.
Typo -- that leaves 225 D1s looking for arms
Ha Ha good catch. You made my argument sound even better LOL thx