Minimum Velocity to pitch in college

Nonamedad posted:

I went to PG and looked at the top 100 college recruiting classes for 2019s. As expected the top 25 are all loaded with 90+ RHPs, plus I must add 12-15 recruits per school (seems like too many to me). Anyway as the poser above states below that the drop off is significant. I always tell the anecdote of the BIG 12 tourney a few years back in OKC when Baylor played WVU and the Baylor kid hit 87 once and the LHP from WVU never hit 80. 2013 or 2014 I think.

Just clarifying, are you saying there was a kid pitching for WVU who threw in the 70s?

If there are approximately 300 right hand pitchers in the PG database that have been 90 or better, I'm guessing there is another 50 or more  that aren't in the database.  That is in any given class there could be as many as 350 or more RHPs at 90 or better.  If you were to subtract the draft and considered Freshman, sophomores, juniors and seniors colleges account for 4 years, 4 recruiting classes.  that does not account for red shirt years.  Then there is another 50 or more LHPs throwing 90 or better each year.

If there were approximately 1,000 RHPs that fit the 88 mph range in the PG database, there are probably 300 or more that aren't in the database.  Then if there were 200 or so LHPs that can throw 88 each year, adding all the above each class has roughly 400 RHP and LHP that can throw 90 or better.  So in 4 recruiting classes there would be approximately 1,600 pitchers throwing 90 or better.  If they were divided equally among DI colleges, which they definitely are not, each DI school would have five or six 90 mph guys.  And that doesn't account for those that develop into 90+ after they enter college. Obviously the top programs get more of the 90+ guys.

Same goes with the 88 mph guys.  If there are 1500 in each recruiting class, that would account for 6,000 in four recruiting classes.  so approximately 6,000 pitchers. If they were split equally among 300 DI colleges, which doesn't happen, it would equal twenty pitchers to each program over four years. 

Then there are mid 80s pitchers that are much better than some 88-90 mph pitchers. 

So split equally by all DI programs, they would all have successfully recruited about six 90 or better pitchers and about twenty 88 or better pitchers.  That would be about 7 pitchers a year on average, but truth is the freshman and sophomore classes will have more than half so it is not uncommon to see more pitchers recruited each year.

Velocity is very important, but by itself it isn't enough.  There are mid 80s pitchers that are much better than some 88-90 mph pitchers. There are mid 80s pitchers that project to add much more velocity.  Every once in awhile you see a pitcher that throws around 80 that can be very successful against top DI hitters.  I don't think anyone should label them self a certain level of pitcher or player.  There are other people that end up doing that after they see you.  In our database we have examples of pitchers that topped out in the mid 80s while in HS, that have since thrown mid to upper 90s in the Big Leagues.

Keep in mind that a pitcher who throws 90, even once, has that follow him around for life. Even more so, a pitcher who throws 90 for a period of time, say a fall PG season. 

   What I am seeing at the senior HS level is pitchers whose Velo has dropped off. Saw one LHP ( lower D1) who has a nasty curve and hit 85-86 consistently last fall is now low 80's and getting hit. Another RHP who hit 88 ( lower D1) as a 16 yo is now low 80's at 18 yo. Another who threw low 90's, sat high 80's(P5) is now struggling to even pitch....this is more of a health issue. 

   I could go on and on, just in my little corner of the world. I see a lot of pitchers training for Velo, and achieving it as early as 14yo, but I wonder about the cost. Seems that a lot of these kids are burning out before they even reach college. 

gutsnglory posted:

I understand that there are huge velocity ranges, but is there speed that would be a deal breaker no matter how good you are at other things? 

30 mph

That's the approximate minimum velo required for the ball to travel 60'-6" at a 45 degree launch angle.  Anything less and the ball cannot possibly cross the plate.

(Please excuse the pathetic engineering humor.)

I coulda hit 30.

We saw a few 75-77's at a lower level academic D3 in the MW, but for a RH pitcher, I would say there are few who peak at 79 or lower who ever get the chance to pitch in college baseball from what we saw.  Even at the Academic tryouts for the AZ Senior Classic, if a kid was not at least 85 in the morning tryouts, he was not invited to the Academic game. Of course for lefties, there is more of opportunity for "crafty lefties" but there does not seem to be any equivalent for RHPs unless they are referred to as "soft tossers."

This subject has been hammered countless times here...  some of the data from PG and others are great.  But agree with Pia Ump for short, quick answer...  "80's" gets you somewhere when it's the kind that you know it when you see it.

There are always stories about guys in 70's and they are true.  But here is a twist on those guys that doesn't often get discussed.  I think that most of those guys were not recruited as P's.  They did something else as a position player and due to a variety of possible circumstances, they got thrown into the P mix (emergency need, mop up, extensive tourney, rainouts force several consecutive games, etc.) and were able to get guys out.  So they got rolled out again until they can't get guys out...  Or, they are P's and get hurt and don't reach their projected velo so they re-invent themselves as a side-armer, spotter or junker.  But again, they were not recruited to be a 70's P.  It is not a number that you shoot for and say, "hey, I can throw in the 70's so I can make it as a P on a college team".  Just doesn't work that way.

Just looked in on a Northwestern v Notre Dame game. Two guys came in from the bullpen for NWU. One's fastball sat 77-79(high of 80), and another 79-81(high 83). Their breaking pitches looked OK, but they couldn't throw consistent strikes with them.

 I bet somewhere there is a record of them throwing 87 mph. 

Son is a pitcher, let's just say we have been very encouraged watching SEC baseball on Saturday on ESPN. Been seeing a lot of figures that look like snowmen in the little velocity box on TV. I hate seeing those pesky critters on my golf scorecard, but for a HS junior who has been told his whole life that you need to be 90+ to play D1its a nice surprise for my kid.

@Nonamedad Is right on point. All you hear is 90 90 90, but the games say 87 87 87. Now can those guys hit it once off a turf mound indoors? Probably, but they aren't all throwing that in game.

Velo numbers are huge at the recruiting level but don't mean a whole lot in a NCAA D1 game . HC's throw guys that get outs . Period. It doesn't matter if it's crossing the plate at 83 mph .

But HS parents of low velo pitchers be forewarned , That doesn't mean that they recruit guys that ' get outs' at the HS level.

85 on the left side / 88 on the right are the magic numbers for Mid-Upper Division 1 baseball.

HS underdog team making deep run in state playoffs recently vs a nationally ranked team.  Underdog team, starting RHP at 5-8, 140, and sitting 73-75 was untouched through 3.1 innings.  With score tied at 0-0 after 3 1/3, and a runner on 2nd due to Error, coaches assumed game would be decided by 1 or 2 runs, so they bring in their Big Gun who sits 88-90, tops at 92, to shut it down.   Got shelled.  Balls flying all over the field.  Place went from cow pasture to construction site in an instant.

First guy's 73mph was impossible to square up (had no-no thru 3.1),  but reliever's 88-90mph appeared to be BP for their hitters.  Wasn't pretty.

Now take a guess which one has the D-1 scholarship for next fall?

Nonamedad posted:

Son is a pitcher, let's just say we have been very encouraged watching SEC baseball on Saturday on ESPN. Been seeing a lot of figures that look like snowmen in the little velocity box on TV. I hate seeing those pesky critters on my golf scorecard, but for a HS junior who has been told his whole life that you need to be 90+ to play D1its a nice surprise for my kid.

Within 5 years I predict that spin rate will have a much bigger influence on who gets recruited where, but for now 80's is not likely enough to get you recruited to an SEC school to pitch.  Maybe 88/89.  Maybe...

There's a kid that was a Jr RHP on my son's team last season.  He pitched a total of 1 inning the entire season. Didn't get on the mound at all this season. 

He couldn't hit 80 if he was throwing downhill off the Empire State Building.

He's "signed" with a D3 to play next year.

Of course:

It's an out of state academic D3.

They have 60 guys on the "roster"

He's paying about $65,000 a year to go there.

But hey, A guy throwing in the 70's can pitch in college.

Over the years I've seen plenty of pitchers throwing in the mid-70's in D3.  They might have hit 80 something once or twice throwing in a Showcase.  But in games they are cruising in the 70's.   They aren't pitching, generally, for a powerhouse D3 that regularly attends the NCAA Regionals, but in lower level D3's?  Yes.

The key, as with anything in life really, is getting opportunities and then taking advantage of those opportunities when you get them.  A recruit throwing in the 70's is going to get less opportunities.  Even a lower level D3 coach is not going to highly prioritize a pitcher throwing 75.  But if you can get in front of them, show them you can locate, spin and move the ball and consistently get hitters out, it can and does happen.  

#1 Assistant Coach posted:

...Place went from cow pasture to construction site in an instant. 

+1, I will be borrowing this line

I'm seeing a lot of shifting in the college game now. I feel that locating your pitches is the most important thing to work on for young pitcher. Is it really impressive to watch a kid throw 93+ only look a the box score and see 45+ pitches after first 2 innings.   

My sons D3 played a very competitive schedule, they were ranked in the top 20 SOS according to the whatever criteria the NCAA uses. I am sure it is a pretty comprehensive comparison of the higher D3 level. I think 14 of our 40 games season were vs teams playing in the Regional somewhere.

We see mostly low 80's, some higher, occasionally lower usually lefty junk ballers, a very few in the high 80's.

JMMS posted:

I'm seeing a lot of shifting in the college game now. I feel that locating your pitches is the most important thing to work on for young pitcher. Is it really impressive to watch a kid throw 93+ only look a the box score and see 45+ pitches after first 2 innings.   

The thing is, there are more & more high school kids every year who can do both (throw 93 and locate).

I'm a huge fan of Greg Maddux.  The pitchers who can really move the ball are fun to watch.  The thing is, the lower velocity pitcher has way less margin for error.  If he gets in a game where his secondary pitches aren't working, and his fastball ain't moving, he is gonna get flat out hammered.  While it is true that great hitters can sit on any velocity and crush it, the higher velocity pitcher has a better chance of success when he doesn't have his best stuff.  For that reason, and many more, the higher velocity pitcher will get more opportunities.

We all have to remember, great college coaches didn't get to their position in their career by accident.  They feel confident they can teach a 90's guy to hide the ball better and to develop better secondary pitches.  They feel confident they can teach a 6.5 runner how to hit.  Etc etc

3and2Fastball posted:

Nonamedad posted:

Son is a pitcher, let's just say we have been very encouraged watching SEC baseball on Saturday on ESPN. Been seeing a lot of figures that look like snowmen in the little velocity box on TV. I hate seeing those pesky critters on my golf scorecard, but for a HS junior who has been told his whole life that you need to be 90+ to play D1its a nice surprise for my kid.

Within 5 years I predict that spin rate will have a much bigger influence on who gets recruited where, but for now 80's is not likely enough to get you recruited to an SEC school to pitch.  Maybe 88/89.  Maybe...

I  invite you to watch this Saturday on ESPN college baseball (it's exclusively SEC where I am) to check velocity numbers. 90+ is the exception not the rule and that's mostly closers. 

Many times a velocity won't be shown, my conspiracy mind tells me it's because the number is too low. 

You may need 88-90 to get recruited, but anyone with eyes and a TV can see you don't need those numbers to pitch in the SEC, which is hardly mid level D1.

Watch the CWS, ESPN now shows many regional games, you really don't see the high velocity guys until 16 teams are left.