Minimum Velocity to pitch in college

Nonamedad posted:

3and2Fastball posted:

Nonamedad posted:

Son is a pitcher, let's just say we have been very encouraged watching SEC baseball on Saturday on ESPN. Been seeing a lot of figures that look like snowmen in the little velocity box on TV. I hate seeing those pesky critters on my golf scorecard, but for a HS junior who has been told his whole life that you need to be 90+ to play D1its a nice surprise for my kid.

Within 5 years I predict that spin rate will have a much bigger influence on who gets recruited where, but for now 80's is not likely enough to get you recruited to an SEC school to pitch.  Maybe 88/89.  Maybe...

I  invite you to watch this Saturday on ESPN college baseball (it's exclusively SEC where I am) to check velocity numbers. 90+ is the exception not the rule and that's mostly closers. 

Many times a velocity won't be shown, my conspiracy mind tells me it's because the number is too low. 

You may need 88-90 to get recruited, but anyone with eyes and a TV can see you don't need those numbers to pitch in the SEC, which is hardly mid level D1.

Watch the CWS, ESPN now shows many regional games, you really don't see the high velocity guys until 16 teams are left.

I agree with you and I watch a lot of college baseball, specifically the SEC.  As an Arkansas fan, our Friday night guy is 92-95, Saturday is a LHP that is mostly 88-90, and Sunday is a guy that has had arm issues who will be anywhere from 89-96.  The closer is 94-96 and the top two relievers are 88-89 and 90-95.  The only teams with arms like that as far as I know are Florida and Oregon State which are basically the top 3 teams in the country.  Most teams have a dude on Friday night and a few hard throwing bullpen guys, but everyone else seems to be 87-89.  The key is to be 88 and be able to pitch and you can probably find a role on most SEC teams.  Arkansas has some big arms in the pen but they are inconsistent and the softer throwing guys are in front of them.  Texas A&M had a starter with a PG high of 92 and he never hit 90 once.  87-88 and would hit 89 some.  And that is at Arkansas where I think the gun is about 1-2 mph hot.   

You get down into the mid majors and you will see a lot of 85-87 RHP's.  I can recall watching DBU vs Clemson and it seemed like every DBU pitcher was 85-87.  Now, they all got shelled, but that is a different story. 

Went to the Big 12 tournament a few years back, WVA vs Baylor, WVA lefty never hit 80 and the Baylor righty never hit 88. Stadium gun in OKC bricktown.

3and2Fastball posted:

We all have to remember, great college coaches didn't get to their position in their career by accident.  They feel confident they can teach a 90's guy to hide the ball better and to develop better secondary pitches.  They feel confident they can teach a 6.5 runner how to hit.  Etc etc

I agree that high velo is helpful, and I agree that college coaches feel confident . . . but if you look at the percentage of recruits who wash out, don't see the field, transfer, etc., I'd argue that that confidence is misplaced (I know you said "great college coaches" but I suspect that the not-so-great coaches have the same confidence). Very often a college coach will have seen a recruit play just a few times, perhaps a half-dozen. Their ability to assess and project is not nearly as good as they think it is. 

It's not college coaches, specifically -- humans generally over-estimate their own abilities. 

For every 90's velocity kid who ends up being a bust, there's 3 more waiting in line to take his spot (or so it seems at least!)

3and2Fastball posted:

For every 90's velocity kid who ends up being a bust, there's 3 more waiting in line to take his spot (or so it seems at least!)

Right on cue, Baseball America article today on this topic: www.baseballamerica.com/storie...ort-of-expectations/

"I think for a long time, in general, we as an industry have been very bad at how we evaluate high school pitching,” an American League crosschecker said. "We keep doing the same thing over and over again. These flamethrower guys get pushed up toward the top. If the guy is not throwing 100 (mph) he’s not as high on lists. But look at the guys who keep actually showing up in the majors. Walker, Sanchez—(they have) good arm actions, good deliveries, athleticism, an ease of operation. They looked like starters all the way.

"Even though it keeps not working, we’re obsessed with 18-year-old kids throwing 96-99. It’s safe, right? The kid is probably huge, he’s throwing 100, he shows up on the field. It’s going to be very difficult for anybody to be like, ‘This is a ridiculous pick.’ Some 6-foot-5 dude throws one bullet at 100 and everyone in player development is happy. But we have the data. We have the history. We know that shouldn’t be the reaction.”

So if there are scouts in the stands and you are throwing hard but just missing, do you let up on speed a little bit to get more accuracy, or keep throwing hard?  This has been a discussion in our house about the summer.

Is the scout referring to Aaron Sanchez who goes 93-95 with his two seamer, and Taijuan Walker who averages 94 on his fastball and a 89-90 splitter? (Not to mention Walker's arm blowing up recently)

Those guys were both first round draft picks out of high school who were 93+ in their senior years. It's not like they were mid 80's guys who grew into 90's guys.

baseballhs posted:

So if there are scouts in the stands and you are throwing hard but just missing, do you let up on speed a little bit to get more accuracy, or  and keep throwing hard?  This has been a discussion in our house about the summer.

For the guys who are successful, the two are not mutually exclusive.

Rob T posted:

baseballhs posted:

So if there are scouts in the stands and you are throwing hard but just missing, do you let up on speed a little bit to get more accuracy, or  and keep throwing hard?  This has been a discussion in our house about the summer.

For the guys who are successful, the two are not mutually exclusive.

In a perfect world you have both everyday.  

There are so many variables. Is the stadium gun accurate? Do these guns need periodic calibration to make sure they are accurate?

As someone mentioned earlier, most guys throw mid to high 80's.  Son's team has a Friday guy that was hitting 95-96 in the 7th inning, but they have an All American Closer who lives 80-82.  When the closer is on, he is virtually unhittable.   When his control is off, he gets hammered.

From what I've seen, the 95-96 guy on son's team can use his velo to get an important K when he's in trouble.  The other starters don't have that little extra giddy up to help them get out of jams. Say what you want, but a little extra velo never hurt anybody.

Another thing, these guys may be capable of throwing harder, but that is 100% not the goal. It is to get people out, and if they can have more control by throwing a little slower, and that helps them get people out, they will throw a little slower.

Seeing guys on TV throwing 85 and thinking that is the magic number, is just not realistic.  If Ryan hadn't been touching 90, and sitting mostly 85 - 88, he wouldn't be where he is now.  

rynoattack posted:

There are so many variables. Is the stadium gun accurate? Do these guns need periodic calibration to make sure they are accurate?

As someone mentioned earlier, most guys throw mid to high 80's.  Son's team has a Friday guy that was hitting 95-96 in the 7th inning, but they have an All American Closer who lives 80-82.  When the closer is on, he is virtually unhittable.   When his control is off, he gets hammered.

From what I've seen, the 95-96 guy on son's team can use his velo to get an important K when he's in trouble.  The other starters don't have that little extra giddy up to help them get out of jams. Say what you want, but a little extra velo never hurt anybody.

Another thing, these guys may be capable of throwing harder, but that is 100% not the goal. It is to get people out, and if they can have more control by throwing a little slower, and that helps them get people out, they will throw a little slower.

Seeing guys on TV throwing 85 and thinking that is the magic number, is just not realistic.  If Ryan hadn't been touching 90, and sitting mostly 85 - 88, he wouldn't be where he is now.  

I should clarify.  Not scouts, coaches.  I know they want both, but back to the question in this thread...would they rather fix barely missing the zone but throwing hard, or slow it down  (which puts you back in the pack) and hitting all your spots?

I think college coaches want outs. They also want velo, but college coaches arent generally playing the long game; they need immediate results (because they only get 11.7 chances; pro ball has over 70 new guys per team every year).

Proball plays the long game.

Most college PCs - especially guys whose careers ended in college - dont generally know how to develop pitchers. And college coaches generally are militantly anti-walk. (I still remember my son telling me his pro PC complemented him after walking a bomber to get to the lefty hitter [who ked on 4 pitches]- that's part of the maturation in the pros that college coaches generally don't have time to develop. )

This discussion reminds me of the college tour question: is it better to get an "A" in a regular course or a "B" in an AP. The correct goal would be an "A" in the AP.

As to what is easier to teach - control or velo - with S it was velo; he was always shaky on control and many coaches believed he could be "fixed." He never was truly fixed for long periods. But a LHP sitting low 90s will always find a believer who thinks it can be "fixed."

LSU vs Auburn (they are pretty good btw) both Auburn guys were 91/92, I didn't see the LSU starter but the second LSU guy hit 90, but had a long inning, his next inning was 87/88, third guy was a lefty FB topped out at 83, nest guy was 88/89. LSU had given up and the pitchers were rarely used kids, 13 and 14 appearances, but still.

My 2019 RHP by my guess is sitting 83-85 (IMO based on last summer and his improvement) .  He's had a very nice year and recently a couple of mid-level D1 were out to see him with their radar guns.  Cool to see, but no feedback or reaching out afterwards, even though he gave up no runs during his outing.

It's very discouraging that we're hearing crickets, even though I've always known he's had to make another jump in velo to be considered mid-D1.  I think it's now confirmed for me.

Going to a couple June showcases.  If we continue to receive no immediate feedback, then we'll focus on DIII....unfortunately DIII are typically smaller schools, and son right now doesn't want that.

Keeping it all to myself for now, as I don't want to discourage him, but we'll need to have a good heart to heart at some point.

You are delusional if you think you will be recruited (and offered a scholarship) by an SEC school unless you hit 88 - 90 as a junior in HS - or before.  Exception would be  lefty that has good secondary stuff.  SEC schools are already done with 2019 recruiting and are looking at 2020 players now. Here is a real life example : Texas A&M has 16 active pitchers on the current roster. Half of them sit over 90.  The other half sit 87 - 89.  Almost all can throw 90 if they need too. Only exception is one soft tossing lefty at 82 - 85, but he doesn't pitch a lot. There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

Rob T posted:

adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

adbono posted:

You are delusional if you think you will be recruited (and offered a scholarship) by an SEC school unless you hit 88 - 90 as a junior in HS - or before.  Exception would be  lefty that has good secondary stuff.  SEC schools are already done with 2019 recruiting and are looking at 2020 players now. Here is a real life example : Texas A&M has 16 active pitchers on the current roster. Half of them sit over 90.  The other half sit 87 - 89.  Almost all can throw 90 if they need too. Only exception is one soft tossing lefty at 82 - 85, but he doesn't pitch a lot. There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

My 2018 son, RHP, was 88-90 consistently his Sophomore year. Exactly ZERO schools were interested until he topped 93 the following spring. One of his LHP team mates was 84-87 his Sophomore spring and still to this day has not touched 88 was heavily recruited by SEC schools.

What's it mean? There are a lot of RHP's, so you gotta find ways to stand out and seek your fit. LHP's get taken a bit earlier.

Fast forward, son had a terrific HS pitching career on/in a mediocre program. It didn't cost him a bit in terms of recruitment (he done one PG event, coincidentally pitched at 2am, so I'm pretty sure that really doesn't count). He had plenty of choices that continued to surface well after he committed to a mid major, even some pro scouts and a cross checker surfaced, all to be told he's going to college. He chose a program that fit his wants and needs to better himself in life and the baseball is pretty good too.

There are a lot of players that never make it to campus and even more that figure out they may have a very limited role at a high power program that choose to move on.

Just because you see SEC pitchers getting gunned in games throwing 85-86 doesn't mean that is the hardest they can throw.

If you max out at 85-86, does that mean you can consistently cruise at your max velocity for multiple innings while moving the ball and throwing strikes?  Good luck convincing SEC coaches of that.

baseballhs posted:

Rob T posted:

adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

The numbers I speak of are the 1200 that get drafted vs. the maybe 120 that make an SEC roster.

In other words, if you are good enough to play for the SEC there is a real good chance you have at least had conversations with a scout to determine draft-ability.