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baseballhs posted:
3and2Fastball posted:

Just because you see SEC pitchers getting gunned in games throwing 85-86 doesn't mean that is the hardest they can throw.

If you max out at 85-86, does that mean you can consistently cruise at your max velocity for multiple innings while moving the ball and throwing strikes?  Good luck convincing SEC coaches of that.

We have a junior RHP committed to an SEC that rarely touches 90.    I’m not sure how it will all pan out but I think the jr is a great pitcher but I dont see him drafted out of hs.  At least not in a round he would consider.

By “rarely” you mean that he does touch 90.  Don’t get me wrong, I think that there is too much emphasis on velocity and not enough on getting hitters out.  But high velo is what gets you in the door.  And as someone else so accurately said earlier in this thread “for the guys that are successful the 2 (velo & outs) are not mutually exclusive.” 

Rob T posted:
baseballhs posted:
Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

The numbers I speak of are the 1200 that get drafted vs. the maybe 120 that make an SEC roster.

In other words, if you are good enough to play for the SEC there is a real good chance you have at least had conversations with a scout to determine draft-ability.

100% correct 

Rob T posted:
baseballhs posted:
Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

The numbers I speak of are the 1200 that get drafted vs. the maybe 120 that make an SEC roster.

In other words, if you are good enough to play for the SEC there is a real good chance you have at least had conversations with a scout to determine draft-ability.

Isn't that true of every conference? The number drafted in a year (1200) is always far greater than the number of players at the conference in a specific  class.

2019Dad posted:

For recruiting purposes, I think there is a distinction between a number that a kid has touched in a game, and a number that is "verified." (The college coach has seen it with his own eyes, or PG or PBR or another independent party has recorded and published it). The former isn't terribly important for recruiting. 

Agreed.  And if coach believes there is still "projection remaining" he can safely bank on the former.  But if he believes player is at end of physical development, with little or no projection remaining, then most likely will not venture beyond the latter (the "verified").

57special posted:

Well, of course it has to be a verifiable number, not some random guy at a local HS/youth game.

Yeah, what I meant is, even if it's not some random guy . . . Example: son's HS team guns its varsity pitchers in all games. 2019 pitcher touches 90 in a winter game, recorded by the high school on its Stalker. That doesn't mean much -- during the quiet period, no college coaches there, not verified by a third party . . . just doesn't mean a lot because, um, let's just say there is rampant exaggeration of velo in HS baseball so reports like that are treated with skepticism (and rightly so)

Nonamedad posted:

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Early showcase season max velocity versus fatigued end of season cruising velocity. It also may be ironing out mechanics and getting better movement on the ball may have decreased velocity.

Last edited by RJM

Guys humped it up for the guns at the events while really only sitting 84-86, maybe even a little lower.   Don't believe people around here that you can't pitch D1 or "Won't get recruited" if you don't consistently hit 90.   Either posters on this site don't know what they are talking about, or power 5 coaches don't know what they are doing.  To be the number 1 stud at top power five schools you will likely be over 90.  To be a decent pitcher at power 5 requires 84-86, good command and a good off-speed.

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

RJM posted:
Nonamedad posted:

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Early showcase season max velocity versus fatigued end of season cruising velocity. It also may be ironing out mechanics and getting better movement on the ball may have decreased velocity.

Not trying to be a smart-ass.... ironing out mechanics and getting better movement may have decreased velocity... in English this tells me they were throwing as hard as they could and couldn't get anywhere near the strike zone so they had to slow down and actually pitch to throw strikes. And when they did get lucky enough to throw a strike with all their might the pitchwas so straight and flat it got tattooed. So they had to slow down again make the ball move to really get hitters out.

3and2Fastball posted:

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

Well, listen to people on here and they will tell you that cruising 85-86 makes a guy a chump.   Some might tell you that it would be exceedingly hard to get recruited to a Power 5 team cruising 85-86.   My point is that I am not so sure the know it alls know all they would like to  think they know.

Don't get me wrong, throwing 90+ is great, especially with command and good off speed.   I just have seen that it is not an absolute for pitching SEC baseball.   Not by a long shot.

Teaching Elder posted:
3and2Fastball posted:

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

Well, listen to people on here and they will tell you that cruising 85-86 makes a guy a chump.   Some might tell you that it would be exceedingly hard to get recruited to a Power 5 team cruising 85-86.   My point is that I am not so sure the know it alls know all they would like to  think they know.

Don't get me wrong, throwing 90+ is great, especially with command and good off speed.   I just have seen that it is not an absolute for pitching SEC baseball.   Not by a long shot.

I am at the D2 JuCo World Series in Enid, Oklahoma watching a game right now. The starting pitcher for NOC -Enid has been sitting 89-91 the entire game and has hit 93 at least a handful of times.  He is a freshman and is NOC-Enid’s #3 starter.  As a RHP that is pretty much what it takes to be a guy that matters in the SEC.  There are plenty of really good hard throwing RHPs.  They are all over the baseball landscape. The “know it alls” that you refer to are us guys that scout, recruit, and coach these hard throwing kids - while you watch TV.  So you can be as impressed as you want to be with 85-86 mph.  And there is a place where that plays just fine - it’s called D3. 

Nonamedad posted:

But don't most of the kids that go the juco route have grade issues that preclude them from getting into 4 year schools? And most are trying to get drafted right away, so they don't want to go to a 4 year univ and wait to become draft eligible.

Most?  I don't think so. I'm not a know it all, but there are plenty with grade issues, but the kids who do well academically in Juco then qualify to get into 4 year schools.  I've seen it happen plenty of times.  Unfortunately, I've also seen kids whose academic troubles continue, so they can't play in Juco either. There are also many who want to be drafted, like you say,  but many more who were overlooked during recruiting, whether because they were late bloomers or didn't get themselves in front of the right eyes or any number of reasons. Another reason I think a lot of student-athletes go Juco is the same reason a lot of students go Juco -- it's a hella lot cheaper and you can live at home if you want to.

Nonamedad posted:
RJM posted:
Nonamedad posted:

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Early showcase season max velocity versus fatigued end of season cruising velocity. It also may be ironing out mechanics and getting better movement on the ball may have decreased velocity.

Not trying to be a smart-ass.... ironing out mechanics and getting better movement may have decreased velocity... in English this tells me they were throwing as hard as they could and couldn't get anywhere near the strike zone so they had to slow down and actually pitch to throw strikes. And when they did get lucky enough to throw a strike with all their might the pitchwas so straight and flat it got tattooed. So they had to slow down again make the ball move to really get hitters out.

The max number on the PG website is from when the pitcher aired out his fastball. It doesn’t matter if it was a strike or not. It doesn't matter if it was straight as an arrow and hit 450 feet. All the pitcher was trying to accomplish was max velocity in a showcase setting. It’s a number to show a scout/coach what kind of tools he can expect to work with.

My son was moved from short to center in high school and his travel team by post soph summer. In individual showcase drills he did both infield and outfield. His travel coach told him not to worry about not having played short recently. He was told to throw hard for max velocity and not worry if he throws the ball across the infield into the third row. Accuracy can be fixed. Velocity not so much.

Last edited by RJM

Re: cruising 85/86 mph

Ten years ago I was chatting with a Phillies scout at an A10 game. It was obvious he was there to see the 90+ closer. But he was there occassionally gunning every pitcher. I asked him the average cruising speed in the A10.

Ten years ago it was mid 80’s in the A10. No way, no how is the typical P5 pitcher throwing mid 80’s. There are some P5s cruising mid 80’s. All the 90+ pitchers got their shot before these guys.

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