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"How good you are at other things"... What do you mean, specifically? Are you talking about being a two way player? Pitching and playing another position as well? Or being a Pitcher/DH? That kind of thing
There are pitchers at the low level D3's that throw high 70's to low 80's
There are pitchers at the low level D3's that throw high 70's to low 80's
By "other things i mostly meant control and off speed.
We'll see what others I have to say. I've personally seen plenty of D3 pitchers throw fastballs in the high 70's in games. Generally most will say you need to throw 80 to get college interest at the lowest levels
85+ as a lefty pitcher will get you D1 interest. High 80's as a right hand pitcher for D1
No. There is not one speed or situation where a coach is going to say I'm not interested. There is more to pitching than velocity and I could rattle off a dozen or so things a college recruiter is going to look at holistically to make a determination if they are initially interested in a recruit. If you want an answer, I think you are going to have to ask the coach themselves and I really don't think that is a good question to ask. I think a better question would be to ask "what are the velocity ranges of your current pitching staff". So, this will give you an idea of the range across a typical college pitching staff of 17 players on a roster of 35 players.
There are many other considerations (movement, control, projectability, coachability, work ethic, frame, mechanics, etc..) across a wide variety of schools and situations. My son played with a pitcher (D1) who officially played exactly 1 inning in his entire 4 year college career beyond practice. He was a submariner and probably couldn't break a glass window with his fastball. He graduated with a 0.00 ERA. Do you know what he had going for him? He was very smart and his family endowed the Athletic Director's salary. He is currently in the front office of an MLB team. LIke I said, there are all kinds of considerations that schools look at. ;-)
check out this topic. There is some good research in it.
Answer that Dads want to hear: 75 and your son is that special snowflake
Answer that is more close to real: 87-93 at least once in front of a scout, depending on school, for weekend starters
(Dad thought bubble... but, but I saw a kid throw a few two seamers in relief in a D3 game during the week once at 78..)
Think of this as a pyramid. Hundreds can touch 90, Thousands can touch 85. Everyone else can touch 80. Which group do you want to be in? Which group do you want to recruit from?
All the answers above are right, and there are many more that are right depending on the situation.
Our younger son, 5-10 RHP, 85 mph in HS, pitched at a Power-5 school and left barely touching 90 but as the all-time innings-pitched leader at that school. "Spectacular command" is how one scout describes him (now pitching in double-A).
So when you say, "By other things i mostly meant control and off speed," I say, yeah, he has/had all of that. But your definition, mine and a college coach's may be different (I sure didn't know how to judge if he was good enough - in fact, I wouldn't let him commit for a while because I was so unsure).
In other words, they will make the judgement, no formal recipe within reasonable bounds - keep on pitching in front of people and they will decide.
Important disclaimer: Although people often offer the fuzzy disclaimer that "velocity is overrated", there are some very good reasons to know your best velocity at the end of Junior year, and to know a little about where that number points to on "the map" of college programs. For better or worse, coaches will use your top velocity to help them project whether you are likely to develop into a competitive pitcher at their college program level.
College-level is certainly not as simple as "D1" versus other levels and it's even difficult to break programs down by conference. There are currently 297 D-1 college baseball programs spread over 30 conferences as listed by the NCAA.
Just to take one example, the Pac-12 conference, contains the NCAA's top-ranked program in 2012 (UCLA) and the program ranked #200 (Utah). That's quite a spread in rankings but the ave. HS velocity of pitchers who eventually appeared on a Pac-12 baseball roster in 2012 doesn't vary greatly:
For eventual Pac-12 RHPs:
1 UCLA ave = 91.5
4 Arizona ave = 89.7
6 Oregon ave = 86.7
11 SStanford ave = 90.9
27 Oregon St. ave = 91
15 Arizona St. ave = 88.8
55 U of Wash ave = 86
59 Wash St. ave = 85.5
99 USC ave = 89
200 Utah ave = 87.8
Remember: These are ave. velocities of RHPs when they were in HS, before they found their way onto a Pac-12 baseball roster somewhere.
These numbers do say something important about the average expectations of Pac-12 coaches concerning who they will recruit into their programs. Unfair and short-sighted? Maybe, but it is very important to be aware of the expectations of people who may (or may not) be interested in your potential to play for them.
Perhaps a more revealing breakdown of "D-1 velocity" is to separate out small groups of programs based on their place in the NCAA rankings:
26 Ole Miss
27 Oregon St.
Ave HS velo of RHP pitchers who eventually appeared on the 2012 roster of one these programs was: ave = 90.5 +/- 2. (That means that about 70% of the RHPs in this group pitched in the range: 88.5 - 92.5 mph when they were in High School. Ave HS velo of LHPs who eventually played at these schools was: ave = 88.5 +/- 2.5 mph. (again, this means that 70% of LHPs for these programs were in the range 86 - 91 mph in High School.
40 New Mexico St.
55 U of Wash
Fairly substantial drop-off here: The ave HS velo of RHPs who eventually appeared on these rosters was: ave = 85.5 +/- 2.5. Thus, 70% of these RHPs were in the 83 - 88 mph range in HS. For the LHPs in these programs, the HS ave velo was: ave = 82.5 +/- 2.5, with 70% falling in the range of 80 - 85 mph. (The universal tolerance for lower velo from LHPs has been known forever--you will see this pattern repeated over and over).
80 Wash St.
83 Fresno St.
Very similar RHP numbers to the #40 - #55 programs: Ave HS velo for RHPs who eventually got a roster spot on one of these programs was: ave = 85.5 +/- 3.5 mph. So, the range of RHP High School velocities was a bit wider at this level, 82 - 89 mph, but the average expectation was still about 86 mph. Interestingly, the LHP HS velo numbers were a bit higher for this group, ave = 86 +/-3 mph.
101 Loyola Marymount
109 Sacramento St.
119 U of San Francisco
123 U of Portland
131 St. Mary's
Ave HS velo of RHPs who eventually played for these programs was: ave = 86.5 +/- 3 mph. Only 1 mph different than the averages fro the #40 - #55 group and the #75 - #88 group. Ave HS LHP velo = 85.5 +/- 5 mph.
177 Santa Clara
199 Seattle U.
210 San Jose St.
Ave HS velo of RHPs who eventually played on these teams was: ave = 85 mph +/- 4 mph. For LHPs, ave = 82.5 +/- 4 mph. The std dev on these numbers leads to fairly wide ranges for the 70% groups: RHPs = 81 - 89 mph; LHPs = 78.5 - 86.5.
Let's look at "the bottom of the barrel" of D-1 NCAA rankings:
288 Youngstown St.
295 Florida A&M
296 Alabama A&M
There was not enough public data (i.e., Perfect Game velocities) to evaluate HS LHP velo for pitchers who eventually showed up on a roster for one of these programs. There was also not very much RHP data available for these pitchers, but enough to make a point. The ave High School velo of RHPs on these rosters was: ave = 81 +/- 4.5 mph. A pretty low average with a wide range. Thus, 70% of RHPs who pitched for these teams had HS velo in the range = 76.5 - 85.5 mph.
As has been pointed out elsewhere in this thread, it may not make much sense to include JCs in a comparison w/ most D1, D2, and D3 programs because academic ability (grades, SAT or ACT scores, etc) and economic factors may come strongly into play. It's probably very safe to assume that there is significant overlap between the average HS velocity expectations for the top half of all D2 programs and many of the D1 programs. Also, may be safe to assume that there is overlap between expectations at top D3 programs and many good D2s and some of the D1s.
What it looks like to me is: Almost everybody who is capable of pitching in high school can probably find a "fit" for themselves in a college program somewhere at some level. However, this is not really saying enough....the big picture really requires a good college "fit" that depends on each of these important factors: Academics, economics, social factors, and your ability to pitch a baseball.
Son is RHP at a mid-major. He was getting looks from D2 and D3's once he hit 85, but he was also an all-state SS. Never really talked to any of them, but there was real interest. Ended up getting D1 interest and offer once he was consistently 87...touching 90. He is now a junior. Their pitching staff now has 5 guys who can be at 90 pretty consistently....all RHP. Several guys 85-86, a few 87-88 and a lefty juco guy who is not much over 80. He has friends from his years of travel that are at D2's....and were 84-85 at the time they committed....all RHP. A LHP committed to a B1G while he was 85-86.
I went to PG and looked at the top 100 college recruiting classes for 2019s. As expected the top 25 are all loaded with 90+ RHPs, plus I must add 12-15 recruits per school (seems like too many to me). Anyway as the poser above states below that the drop off is significant. I always tell the anecdote of the BIG 12 tourney a few years back in OKC when Baylor played WVU and the Baylor kid hit 87 once and the LHP from WVU never hit 80. 2013 or 2014 I think.
After all the pitchers I've seen over the years, I've developed an inner radar..........no its not accurate........I call it " 80's"......
Get there (or near) and you can pitch somewhere......( CC, NAIA, D3,2,..etc..)...And you need one school to like you........
Now the variables.....add in these and its gives you more choices.......or them more choices / reasons to like you...
Tall, lefty, control. off-speed, grades, etc......you get the idea......the list of variables goes on and on........
From what I have seen there is a minimum of 75, and this was for a VERY low totem pole D3. So as far as a deal breaker, yes, no matter the control the kid has to be throwing at least 75 to pitch in college in my opinion.
Work on developing velocity. Never stop trying to improve. But unless you’re throwing at a jaw dropping velocity learn how to pitch. Work on command. Work on the mental side of pitching. If you work to optimize these aspects of pitching you will find your place in the game.
Theres a lot involved with whether someone becomes a major conference D1 pitcher versus D3. But the most important thing is elevate yourself to be the best you can be. Ultimately you want to have a positive college baseball experience. When a friend’s son was in a dogpile after winning the D3 World Series he didn’t look any less happy than D1 players.
On the NCAA site, there are 299 D1 baseball teams listed. Using an average of 15 pitchers per team, that is 4,485 guys pitching at the D1 level in any one season. Just looking at the class of 2017, 292 RHP's threw 90 plus and 270 LHP's threw 85 plus(from PG site). If you expand the parameters on the PG site to 2017 RHP's throwing 88 plus and LHP's throwing 84 plus, the list expands to 621 and 440. I don't know how many of those players signed professionally but I'm guessing that number is close to how many were unaccounted for, leaving approximately 1000 pitchers above 88 and 84 available for D1's to recruit from HS. Mix in JUCO's that sign D1 to pitch and that doesn't leave much room for guys below those thresholds to catch a coaches eyes, even if they are fully capable at competing at that level. Fortunately, it does happen from time to time.
Feel free to challenge my math on this, I won't get offended. I looked at three D1's and two had 16 pitchers and the other 14, hardly a representative sample of all D1's. Would also like to know how many 2017 HS pitchers signed professionally out of HS?
He said college. Not D1. How many college programs are there in the US? Don't forget JUCO and NAIA....there is a huge wide door for many pitchers.
Typo -- that leaves 225 D1s looking for arms
Disclaimer - Not real good in math... So a quick search of The Google says there are around 1,140 four year colleges/universities (D1-D3 and NAIA) of all levels playing baseball. Using 15 pitchers as a average ballpark, that means there are 17,100 pitchers needed at 4 year schools at any given time. That is alot of arms! Then you add another 500 or so junior colleges and that is another 7.5K or so for a very rough estimate of 24.5K +- arms needed in collegiate baseball... When you look at it in that regard, there is a place for most kids that really want to play and are not caught up in the classification.
2019Dad posted:Nonamedad posted:
Typo -- that leaves 225 D1s looking for arms
Ha Ha good catch. You made my argument sound even better LOL thx
Just clarifying, are you saying there was a kid pitching for WVU who threw in the 70s?
If there are approximately 300 right hand pitchers in the PG database that have been 90 or better, I'm guessing there is another 50 or more that aren't in the database. That is in any given class there could be as many as 350 or more RHPs at 90 or better. If you were to subtract the draft and considered Freshman, sophomores, juniors and seniors colleges account for 4 years, 4 recruiting classes. that does not account for red shirt years. Then there is another 50 or more LHPs throwing 90 or better each year.
If there were approximately 1,000 RHPs that fit the 88 mph range in the PG database, there are probably 300 or more that aren't in the database. Then if there were 200 or so LHPs that can throw 88 each year, adding all the above each class has roughly 400 RHP and LHP that can throw 90 or better. So in 4 recruiting classes there would be approximately 1,600 pitchers throwing 90 or better. If they were divided equally among DI colleges, which they definitely are not, each DI school would have five or six 90 mph guys. And that doesn't account for those that develop into 90+ after they enter college. Obviously the top programs get more of the 90+ guys.
Same goes with the 88 mph guys. If there are 1500 in each recruiting class, that would account for 6,000 in four recruiting classes. so approximately 6,000 pitchers. If they were split equally among 300 DI colleges, which doesn't happen, it would equal twenty pitchers to each program over four years.
Then there are mid 80s pitchers that are much better than some 88-90 mph pitchers.
So split equally by all DI programs, they would all have successfully recruited about six 90 or better pitchers and about twenty 88 or better pitchers. That would be about 7 pitchers a year on average, but truth is the freshman and sophomore classes will have more than half so it is not uncommon to see more pitchers recruited each year.
Velocity is very important, but by itself it isn't enough. There are mid 80s pitchers that are much better than some 88-90 mph pitchers. There are mid 80s pitchers that project to add much more velocity. Every once in awhile you see a pitcher that throws around 80 that can be very successful against top DI hitters. I don't think anyone should label them self a certain level of pitcher or player. There are other people that end up doing that after they see you. In our database we have examples of pitchers that topped out in the mid 80s while in HS, that have since thrown mid to upper 90s in the Big Leagues.
Keep in mind that a pitcher who throws 90, even once, has that follow him around for life. Even more so, a pitcher who throws 90 for a period of time, say a fall PG season.
What I am seeing at the senior HS level is pitchers whose Velo has dropped off. Saw one LHP ( lower D1) who has a nasty curve and hit 85-86 consistently last fall is now low 80's and getting hit. Another RHP who hit 88 ( lower D1) as a 16 yo is now low 80's at 18 yo. Another who threw low 90's, sat high 80's(P5) is now struggling to even pitch....this is more of a health issue.
I could go on and on, just in my little corner of the world. I see a lot of pitchers training for Velo, and achieving it as early as 14yo, but I wonder about the cost. Seems that a lot of these kids are burning out before they even reach college.
That's the approximate minimum velo required for the ball to travel 60'-6" at a 45 degree launch angle. Anything less and the ball cannot possibly cross the plate.
(Please excuse the pathetic engineering humor.)
I coulda hit 30.
We saw a few 75-77's at a lower level academic D3 in the MW, but for a RH pitcher, I would say there are few who peak at 79 or lower who ever get the chance to pitch in college baseball from what we saw. Even at the Academic tryouts for the AZ Senior Classic, if a kid was not at least 85 in the morning tryouts, he was not invited to the Academic game. Of course for lefties, there is more of opportunity for "crafty lefties" but there does not seem to be any equivalent for RHPs unless they are referred to as "soft tossers."
This subject has been hammered countless times here... some of the data from PG and others are great. But agree with Pia Ump for short, quick answer... "80's" gets you somewhere when it's the kind that you know it when you see it.
There are always stories about guys in 70's and they are true. But here is a twist on those guys that doesn't often get discussed. I think that most of those guys were not recruited as P's. They did something else as a position player and due to a variety of possible circumstances, they got thrown into the P mix (emergency need, mop up, extensive tourney, rainouts force several consecutive games, etc.) and were able to get guys out. So they got rolled out again until they can't get guys out... Or, they are P's and get hurt and don't reach their projected velo so they re-invent themselves as a side-armer, spotter or junker. But again, they were not recruited to be a 70's P. It is not a number that you shoot for and say, "hey, I can throw in the 70's so I can make it as a P on a college team". Just doesn't work that way.
Just looked in on a Northwestern v Notre Dame game. Two guys came in from the bullpen for NWU. One's fastball sat 77-79(high of 80), and another 79-81(high 83). Their breaking pitches looked OK, but they couldn't throw consistent strikes with them.
I bet somewhere there is a record of them throwing 87 mph.
Velo numbers are huge at the recruiting level but don't mean a whole lot in a NCAA D1 game . HC's throw guys that get outs . Period. It doesn't matter if it's crossing the plate at 83 mph .
But HS parents of low velo pitchers be forewarned , That doesn't mean that they recruit guys that ' get outs' at the HS level.
85 on the left side / 88 on the right are the magic numbers for Mid-Upper Division 1 baseball.
HS underdog team making deep run in state playoffs recently vs a nationally ranked team. Underdog team, starting RHP at 5-8, 140, and sitting 73-75 was untouched through 3.1 innings. With score tied at 0-0 after 3 1/3, and a runner on 2nd due to Error, coaches assumed game would be decided by 1 or 2 runs, so they bring in their Big Gun who sits 88-90, tops at 92, to shut it down. Got shelled. Balls flying all over the field. Place went from cow pasture to construction site in an instant.
First guy's 73mph was impossible to square up (had no-no thru 3.1), but reliever's 88-90mph appeared to be BP for their hitters. Wasn't pretty.
Now take a guess which one has the D-1 scholarship for next fall?
Within 5 years I predict that spin rate will have a much bigger influence on who gets recruited where, but for now 80's is not likely enough to get you recruited to an SEC school to pitch. Maybe 88/89. Maybe...
There's a kid that was a Jr RHP on my son's team last season. He pitched a total of 1 inning the entire season. Didn't get on the mound at all this season.
He couldn't hit 80 if he was throwing downhill off the Empire State Building.
He's "signed" with a D3 to play next year.
It's an out of state academic D3.
They have 60 guys on the "roster"
He's paying about $65,000 a year to go there.
But hey, A guy throwing in the 70's can pitch in college.
Over the years I've seen plenty of pitchers throwing in the mid-70's in D3. They might have hit 80 something once or twice throwing in a Showcase. But in games they are cruising in the 70's. They aren't pitching, generally, for a powerhouse D3 that regularly attends the NCAA Regionals, but in lower level D3's? Yes.
The key, as with anything in life really, is getting opportunities and then taking advantage of those opportunities when you get them. A recruit throwing in the 70's is going to get less opportunities. Even a lower level D3 coach is not going to highly prioritize a pitcher throwing 75. But if you can get in front of them, show them you can locate, spin and move the ball and consistently get hitters out, it can and does happen.
#1 Assistant Coach posted:
...Place went from cow pasture to construction site in an instant.
+1, I will be borrowing this line
I'm seeing a lot of shifting in the college game now. I feel that locating your pitches is the most important thing to work on for young pitcher. Is it really impressive to watch a kid throw 93+ only look a the box score and see 45+ pitches after first 2 innings.
My sons D3 played a very competitive schedule, they were ranked in the top 20 SOS according to the whatever criteria the NCAA uses. I am sure it is a pretty comprehensive comparison of the higher D3 level. I think 14 of our 40 games season were vs teams playing in the Regional somewhere.
We see mostly low 80's, some higher, occasionally lower usually lefty junk ballers, a very few in the high 80's.
The thing is, there are more & more high school kids every year who can do both (throw 93 and locate).
I'm a huge fan of Greg Maddux. The pitchers who can really move the ball are fun to watch. The thing is, the lower velocity pitcher has way less margin for error. If he gets in a game where his secondary pitches aren't working, and his fastball ain't moving, he is gonna get flat out hammered. While it is true that great hitters can sit on any velocity and crush it, the higher velocity pitcher has a better chance of success when he doesn't have his best stuff. For that reason, and many more, the higher velocity pitcher will get more opportunities.
We all have to remember, great college coaches didn't get to their position in their career by accident. They feel confident they can teach a 90's guy to hide the ball better and to develop better secondary pitches. They feel confident they can teach a 6.5 runner how to hit. Etc etc
3and2Fastball posted:Nonamedad posted:
I invite you to watch this Saturday on ESPN college baseball (it's exclusively SEC where I am) to check velocity numbers. 90+ is the exception not the rule and that's mostly closers.
Many times a velocity won't be shown, my conspiracy mind tells me it's because the number is too low.
You may need 88-90 to get recruited, but anyone with eyes and a TV can see you don't need those numbers to pitch in the SEC, which is hardly mid level D1.
Watch the CWS, ESPN now shows many regional games, you really don't see the high velocity guys until 16 teams are left.