Nonamedad posted:
3and2Fastball posted:
Nonamedad posted:

Son is a pitcher, let's just say we have been very encouraged watching SEC baseball on Saturday on ESPN. Been seeing a lot of figures that look like snowmen in the little velocity box on TV. I hate seeing those pesky critters on my golf scorecard, but for a HS junior who has been told his whole life that you need to be 90+ to play D1its a nice surprise for my kid.

Within 5 years I predict that spin rate will have a much bigger influence on who gets recruited where, but for now 80's is not likely enough to get you recruited to an SEC school to pitch.  Maybe 88/89.  Maybe...

I  invite you to watch this Saturday on ESPN college baseball (it's exclusively SEC where I am) to check velocity numbers. 90+ is the exception not the rule and that's mostly closers. 

Many times a velocity won't be shown, my conspiracy mind tells me it's because the number is too low. 

You may need 88-90 to get recruited, but anyone with eyes and a TV can see you don't need those numbers to pitch in the SEC, which is hardly mid level D1.

Watch the CWS, ESPN now shows many regional games, you really don't see the high velocity guys until 16 teams are left.

I agree with you and I watch a lot of college baseball, specifically the SEC.  As an Arkansas fan, our Friday night guy is 92-95, Saturday is a LHP that is mostly 88-90, and Sunday is a guy that has had arm issues who will be anywhere from 89-96.  The closer is 94-96 and the top two relievers are 88-89 and 90-95.  The only teams with arms like that as far as I know are Florida and Oregon State which are basically the top 3 teams in the country.  Most teams have a dude on Friday night and a few hard throwing bullpen guys, but everyone else seems to be 87-89.  The key is to be 88 and be able to pitch and you can probably find a role on most SEC teams.  Arkansas has some big arms in the pen but they are inconsistent and the softer throwing guys are in front of them.  Texas A&M had a starter with a PG high of 92 and he never hit 90 once.  87-88 and would hit 89 some.  And that is at Arkansas where I think the gun is about 1-2 mph hot.   

You get down into the mid majors and you will see a lot of 85-87 RHP's.  I can recall watching DBU vs Clemson and it seemed like every DBU pitcher was 85-87.  Now, they all got shelled, but that is a different story. 

Went to the Big 12 tournament a few years back, WVA vs Baylor, WVA lefty never hit 80 and the Baylor righty never hit 88. Stadium gun in OKC bricktown.

3and2Fastball posted:

We all have to remember, great college coaches didn't get to their position in their career by accident.  They feel confident they can teach a 90's guy to hide the ball better and to develop better secondary pitches.  They feel confident they can teach a 6.5 runner how to hit.  Etc etc

I agree that high velo is helpful, and I agree that college coaches feel confident . . . but if you look at the percentage of recruits who wash out, don't see the field, transfer, etc., I'd argue that that confidence is misplaced (I know you said "great college coaches" but I suspect that the not-so-great coaches have the same confidence). Very often a college coach will have seen a recruit play just a few times, perhaps a half-dozen. Their ability to assess and project is not nearly as good as they think it is. 

It's not college coaches, specifically -- humans generally over-estimate their own abilities. 

For every 90's velocity kid who ends up being a bust, there's 3 more waiting in line to take his spot (or so it seems at least!)

3and2Fastball posted:

For every 90's velocity kid who ends up being a bust, there's 3 more waiting in line to take his spot (or so it seems at least!)

Right on cue, Baseball America article today on this topic: www.baseballamerica.com/storie...ort-of-expectations/

 

"I think for a long time, in general, we as an industry have been very bad at how we evaluate high school pitching,” an American League crosschecker said. "We keep doing the same thing over and over again. These flamethrower guys get pushed up toward the top. If the guy is not throwing 100 (mph) he’s not as high on lists. But look at the guys who keep actually showing up in the majors. Walker, Sanchez—(they have) good arm actions, good deliveries, athleticism, an ease of operation. They looked like starters all the way.

"Even though it keeps not working, we’re obsessed with 18-year-old kids throwing 96-99. It’s safe, right? The kid is probably huge, he’s throwing 100, he shows up on the field. It’s going to be very difficult for anybody to be like, ‘This is a ridiculous pick.’ Some 6-foot-5 dude throws one bullet at 100 and everyone in player development is happy. But we have the data. We have the history. We know that shouldn’t be the reaction.”

 

So if there are scouts in the stands and you are throwing hard but just missing, do you let up on speed a little bit to get more accuracy, or keep throwing hard?  This has been a discussion in our house about the summer.

Is the scout referring to Aaron Sanchez who goes 93-95 with his two seamer, and Taijuan Walker who averages 94 on his fastball and a 89-90 splitter? (Not to mention Walker's arm blowing up recently)

Those guys were both first round draft picks out of high school who were 93+ in their senior years. It's not like they were mid 80's guys who grew into 90's guys.

baseballhs posted:

So if there are scouts in the stands and you are throwing hard but just missing, do you let up on speed a little bit to get more accuracy, or  and keep throwing hard?  This has been a discussion in our house about the summer.

For the guys who are successful, the two are not mutually exclusive.

Rob T posted:
baseballhs posted:

So if there are scouts in the stands and you are throwing hard but just missing, do you let up on speed a little bit to get more accuracy, or  and keep throwing hard?  This has been a discussion in our house about the summer.

For the guys who are successful, the two are not mutually exclusive.

In a perfect world you have both everyday.  

There are so many variables. Is the stadium gun accurate? Do these guns need periodic calibration to make sure they are accurate?

As someone mentioned earlier, most guys throw mid to high 80's.  Son's team has a Friday guy that was hitting 95-96 in the 7th inning, but they have an All American Closer who lives 80-82.  When the closer is on, he is virtually unhittable.   When his control is off, he gets hammered.

From what I've seen, the 95-96 guy on son's team can use his velo to get an important K when he's in trouble.  The other starters don't have that little extra giddy up to help them get out of jams. Say what you want, but a little extra velo never hurt anybody.

Another thing, these guys may be capable of throwing harder, but that is 100% not the goal. It is to get people out, and if they can have more control by throwing a little slower, and that helps them get people out, they will throw a little slower.

Seeing guys on TV throwing 85 and thinking that is the magic number, is just not realistic.  If Ryan hadn't been touching 90, and sitting mostly 85 - 88, he wouldn't be where he is now.  

rynoattack posted:

There are so many variables. Is the stadium gun accurate? Do these guns need periodic calibration to make sure they are accurate?

As someone mentioned earlier, most guys throw mid to high 80's.  Son's team has a Friday guy that was hitting 95-96 in the 7th inning, but they have an All American Closer who lives 80-82.  When the closer is on, he is virtually unhittable.   When his control is off, he gets hammered.

From what I've seen, the 95-96 guy on son's team can use his velo to get an important K when he's in trouble.  The other starters don't have that little extra giddy up to help them get out of jams. Say what you want, but a little extra velo never hurt anybody.

Another thing, these guys may be capable of throwing harder, but that is 100% not the goal. It is to get people out, and if they can have more control by throwing a little slower, and that helps them get people out, they will throw a little slower.

Seeing guys on TV throwing 85 and thinking that is the magic number, is just not realistic.  If Ryan hadn't been touching 90, and sitting mostly 85 - 88, he wouldn't be where he is now.  

I should clarify.  Not scouts, coaches.  I know they want both, but back to the question in this thread...would they rather fix barely missing the zone but throwing hard, or slow it down  (which puts you back in the pack) and hitting all your spots?

I think college coaches want outs. They also want velo, but college coaches arent generally playing the long game; they need immediate results (because they only get 11.7 chances; pro ball has over 70 new guys per team every year).

Proball plays the long game.

Most college PCs - especially guys whose careers ended in college - dont generally know how to develop pitchers. And college coaches generally are militantly anti-walk. (I still remember my son telling me his pro PC complemented him after walking a bomber to get to the lefty hitter [who ked on 4 pitches]- that's part of the maturation in the pros that college coaches generally don't have time to develop. )

This discussion reminds me of the college tour question: is it better to get an "A" in a regular course or a "B" in an AP. The correct goal would be an "A" in the AP.

As to what is easier to teach - control or velo - with S it was velo; he was always shaky on control and many coaches believed he could be "fixed." He never was truly fixed for long periods. But a LHP sitting low 90s will always find a believer who thinks it can be "fixed."

 

LSU vs Auburn (they are pretty good btw) both Auburn guys were 91/92, I didn't see the LSU starter but the second LSU guy hit 90, but had a long inning, his next inning was 87/88, third guy was a lefty FB topped out at 83, nest guy was 88/89. LSU had given up and the pitchers were rarely used kids, 13 and 14 appearances, but still.

My 2019 RHP by my guess is sitting 83-85 (IMO based on last summer and his improvement) .  He's had a very nice year and recently a couple of mid-level D1 were out to see him with their radar guns.  Cool to see, but no feedback or reaching out afterwards, even though he gave up no runs during his outing.

It's very discouraging that we're hearing crickets, even though I've always known he's had to make another jump in velo to be considered mid-D1.  I think it's now confirmed for me.

Going to a couple June showcases.  If we continue to receive no immediate feedback, then we'll focus on DIII....unfortunately DIII are typically smaller schools, and son right now doesn't want that.

Keeping it all to myself for now, as I don't want to discourage him, but we'll need to have a good heart to heart at some point.

You are delusional if you think you will be recruited (and offered a scholarship) by an SEC school unless you hit 88 - 90 as a junior in HS - or before.  Exception would be  lefty that has good secondary stuff.  SEC schools are already done with 2019 recruiting and are looking at 2020 players now. Here is a real life example : Texas A&M has 16 active pitchers on the current roster. Half of them sit over 90.  The other half sit 87 - 89.  Almost all can throw 90 if they need too. Only exception is one soft tossing lefty at 82 - 85, but he doesn't pitch a lot. There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

adbono posted:

You are delusional if you think you will be recruited (and offered a scholarship) by an SEC school unless you hit 88 - 90 as a junior in HS - or before.  Exception would be  lefty that has good secondary stuff.  SEC schools are already done with 2019 recruiting and are looking at 2020 players now. Here is a real life example : Texas A&M has 16 active pitchers on the current roster. Half of them sit over 90.  The other half sit 87 - 89.  Almost all can throw 90 if they need too. Only exception is one soft tossing lefty at 82 - 85, but he doesn't pitch a lot. There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

My 2018 son, RHP, was 88-90 consistently his Sophomore year. Exactly ZERO schools were interested until he topped 93 the following spring. One of his LHP team mates was 84-87 his Sophomore spring and still to this day has not touched 88 was heavily recruited by SEC schools.

What's it mean? There are a lot of RHP's, so you gotta find ways to stand out and seek your fit. LHP's get taken a bit earlier.

Fast forward, son had a terrific HS pitching career on/in a mediocre program. It didn't cost him a bit in terms of recruitment (he done one PG event, coincidentally pitched at 2am, so I'm pretty sure that really doesn't count). He had plenty of choices that continued to surface well after he committed to a mid major, even some pro scouts and a cross checker surfaced, all to be told he's going to college. He chose a program that fit his wants and needs to better himself in life and the baseball is pretty good too.

There are a lot of players that never make it to campus and even more that figure out they may have a very limited role at a high power program that choose to move on.

 

 

Just because you see SEC pitchers getting gunned in games throwing 85-86 doesn't mean that is the hardest they can throw.

If you max out at 85-86, does that mean you can consistently cruise at your max velocity for multiple innings while moving the ball and throwing strikes?  Good luck convincing SEC coaches of that.

baseballhs posted:
Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

The numbers I speak of are the 1200 that get drafted vs. the maybe 120 that make an SEC roster.

In other words, if you are good enough to play for the SEC there is a real good chance you have at least had conversations with a scout to determine draft-ability.

baseballhs posted:
3and2Fastball posted:

Just because you see SEC pitchers getting gunned in games throwing 85-86 doesn't mean that is the hardest they can throw.

If you max out at 85-86, does that mean you can consistently cruise at your max velocity for multiple innings while moving the ball and throwing strikes?  Good luck convincing SEC coaches of that.

We have a junior RHP committed to an SEC that rarely touches 90.    I’m not sure how it will all pan out but I think the jr is a great pitcher but I dont see him drafted out of hs.  At least not in a round he would consider.

By “rarely” you mean that he does touch 90.  Don’t get me wrong, I think that there is too much emphasis on velocity and not enough on getting hitters out.  But high velo is what gets you in the door.  And as someone else so accurately said earlier in this thread “for the guys that are successful the 2 (velo & outs) are not mutually exclusive.” 

Rob T posted:
baseballhs posted:
Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

The numbers I speak of are the 1200 that get drafted vs. the maybe 120 that make an SEC roster.

In other words, if you are good enough to play for the SEC there is a real good chance you have at least had conversations with a scout to determine draft-ability.

100% correct 

For recruiting purposes, I think there is a distinction between a number that a kid has touched in a game, and a number that is "verified." (The college coach has seen it with his own eyes, or PG or PBR or another independent party has recorded and published it). The former isn't terribly important for recruiting. 

Rob T posted:
baseballhs posted:
Rob T posted:
adbono posted:

 There is an easy litmus test that will determine if a player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If MLB scouts are talking to a player as a draft prospect, then that player is good enough to play in the SEC.  If not, he isn't ( not 100% accurate of course but a good rule of thumb ).  

Your odds of getting drafted are a lot better than making an SEC roster if you go by the numbers.

I don’t see this. I’ve seen a lot of guys throwing that might hit 90-91 playing on sec teams.

The numbers I speak of are the 1200 that get drafted vs. the maybe 120 that make an SEC roster.

In other words, if you are good enough to play for the SEC there is a real good chance you have at least had conversations with a scout to determine draft-ability.

Isn't that true of every conference? The number drafted in a year (1200) is always far greater than the number of players at the conference in a specific  class.

2019Dad posted:

For recruiting purposes, I think there is a distinction between a number that a kid has touched in a game, and a number that is "verified." (The college coach has seen it with his own eyes, or PG or PBR or another independent party has recorded and published it). The former isn't terribly important for recruiting. 

Agreed.  And if coach believes there is still "projection remaining" he can safely bank on the former.  But if he believes player is at end of physical development, with little or no projection remaining, then most likely will not venture beyond the latter (the "verified").

57special posted:

Well, of course it has to be a verifiable number, not some random guy at a local HS/youth game.

Yeah, what I meant is, even if it's not some random guy . . . Example: son's HS team guns its varsity pitchers in all games. 2019 pitcher touches 90 in a winter game, recorded by the high school on its Stalker. That doesn't mean much -- during the quiet period, no college coaches there, not verified by a third party . . . just doesn't mean a lot because, um, let's just say there is rampant exaggeration of velo in HS baseball so reports like that are treated with skepticism (and rightly so)

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Nonamedad posted:

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Early showcase season max velocity versus fatigued end of season cruising velocity. It also may be ironing out mechanics and getting better movement on the ball may have decreased velocity.

Last edited by RJM

Guys humped it up for the guns at the events while really only sitting 84-86, maybe even a little lower.   Don't believe people around here that you can't pitch D1 or "Won't get recruited" if you don't consistently hit 90.   Either posters on this site don't know what they are talking about, or power 5 coaches don't know what they are doing.  To be the number 1 stud at top power five schools you will likely be over 90.  To be a decent pitcher at power 5 requires 84-86, good command and a good off-speed.

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

RJM posted:
Nonamedad posted:

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Early showcase season max velocity versus fatigued end of season cruising velocity. It also may be ironing out mechanics and getting better movement on the ball may have decreased velocity.

Not trying to be a smart-ass.... ironing out mechanics and getting better movement may have decreased velocity... in English this tells me they were throwing as hard as they could and couldn't get anywhere near the strike zone so they had to slow down and actually pitch to throw strikes. And when they did get lucky enough to throw a strike with all their might the pitchwas so straight and flat it got tattooed. So they had to slow down again make the ball move to really get hitters out.

3and2Fastball posted:

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

Well, listen to people on here and they will tell you that cruising 85-86 makes a guy a chump.   Some might tell you that it would be exceedingly hard to get recruited to a Power 5 team cruising 85-86.   My point is that I am not so sure the know it alls know all they would like to  think they know.

Don't get me wrong, throwing 90+ is great, especially with command and good off speed.   I just have seen that it is not an absolute for pitching SEC baseball.   Not by a long shot.

Teaching Elder posted:
3and2Fastball posted:

I don't really understand the disconnect.  If you top out at 85-86 is will be exceedingly difficult to be recruited to a Power 5 team.  Because you won't cruise in games at your top velocity.  It doesn't matter what the gun says at games.  At D1 bigtime games you are seeing guys who can throw 88-92 who cruise at lower speeds. 

Well, listen to people on here and they will tell you that cruising 85-86 makes a guy a chump.   Some might tell you that it would be exceedingly hard to get recruited to a Power 5 team cruising 85-86.   My point is that I am not so sure the know it alls know all they would like to  think they know.

Don't get me wrong, throwing 90+ is great, especially with command and good off speed.   I just have seen that it is not an absolute for pitching SEC baseball.   Not by a long shot.

I am at the D2 JuCo World Series in Enid, Oklahoma watching a game right now. The starting pitcher for NOC -Enid has been sitting 89-91 the entire game and has hit 93 at least a handful of times.  He is a freshman and is NOC-Enid’s #3 starter.  As a RHP that is pretty much what it takes to be a guy that matters in the SEC.  There are plenty of really good hard throwing RHPs.  They are all over the baseball landscape. The “know it alls” that you refer to are us guys that scout, recruit, and coach these hard throwing kids - while you watch TV.  So you can be as impressed as you want to be with 85-86 mph.  And there is a place where that plays just fine - it’s called D3. 

But don't most of the kids that go the juco route have grade issues that preclude them from getting into 4 year schools? And most are trying to get drafted right away, so they don't want to go to a 4 year univ and wait to become draft eligible.

Nonamedad posted:

But don't most of the kids that go the juco route have grade issues that preclude them from getting into 4 year schools? And most are trying to get drafted right away, so they don't want to go to a 4 year univ and wait to become draft eligible.

Most of them? Absolutely not 

Nonamedad posted:

But don't most of the kids that go the juco route have grade issues that preclude them from getting into 4 year schools? And most are trying to get drafted right away, so they don't want to go to a 4 year univ and wait to become draft eligible.

Most?  I don't think so. I'm not a know it all, but there are plenty with grade issues, but the kids who do well academically in Juco then qualify to get into 4 year schools.  I've seen it happen plenty of times.  Unfortunately, I've also seen kids whose academic troubles continue, so they can't play in Juco either. There are also many who want to be drafted, like you say,  but many more who were overlooked during recruiting, whether because they were late bloomers or didn't get themselves in front of the right eyes or any number of reasons. Another reason I think a lot of student-athletes go Juco is the same reason a lot of students go Juco -- it's a hella lot cheaper and you can live at home if you want to.

There are anecdotes on both sides. I was at a Big West game this year and the RHP closer for one team was touching 95 and the RHP reliever for the other team touched 86 once. But let's not kid ourselves -- the first pitcher was a lot better! ;-)

Nonamedad posted:
RJM posted:
Nonamedad posted:

Here we go again..... UCLA vs OSU  both RHPs, clearly not either teams top guys. UCLA kid (clearly can pitch) top 86. OSU kid relief pitcher same about 85-86. Both kids on PG are listed at 91. Why the huge disconnect?

Early showcase season max velocity versus fatigued end of season cruising velocity. It also may be ironing out mechanics and getting better movement on the ball may have decreased velocity.

Not trying to be a smart-ass.... ironing out mechanics and getting better movement may have decreased velocity... in English this tells me they were throwing as hard as they could and couldn't get anywhere near the strike zone so they had to slow down and actually pitch to throw strikes. And when they did get lucky enough to throw a strike with all their might the pitchwas so straight and flat it got tattooed. So they had to slow down again make the ball move to really get hitters out.

The max number on the PG website is from when the pitcher aired out his fastball. It doesn’t matter if it was a strike or not. It doesn't matter if it was straight as an arrow and hit 450 feet. All the pitcher was trying to accomplish was max velocity in a showcase setting. It’s a number to show a scout/coach what kind of tools he can expect to work with.

My son was moved from short to center in high school and his travel team by post soph summer. In individual showcase drills he did both infield and outfield. His travel coach told him not to worry about not having played short recently. He was told to throw hard for max velocity and not worry if he throws the ball across the infield into the third row. Accuracy can be fixed. Velocity not so much.

Last edited by RJM

Re: cruising 85/86 mph

Ten years ago I was chatting with a Phillies scout at an A10 game. It was obvious he was there to see the 90+ closer. But he was there occassionally gunning every pitcher. I asked him the average cruising speed in the A10.

Ten years ago it was mid 80’s in the A10. No way, no how is the typical P5 pitcher throwing mid 80’s. There are some P5s cruising mid 80’s. All the 90+ pitchers got their shot before these guys.

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