Can't say I saw this coming at all. The Astros are a much better team on paper. But as the cliche goes, you don't play the game on paper...
FoxDad posted:What a wacky 7th inning. Suzuki's improbable HR off Verlander followed by a walk to Robles and Turner, Eaton's bunt, the routine grounder just off the lip of Bergman's glove. Then the floodgates opened with Cabrera's hit to center, Zimmerman's slow grounder towards third. That's 33 pitches the Astro's wish they could get back.
If someone told me the Nationals would be heading back home with a 2 game lead, I would have told them they were nuts. Who would have thought there would be back to back losses by Cole and Verlander?
This what I love about baseball. You have to play the game. Anything can happen - even the improbable.
“You have a great year, and you can run into a buzz saw,” Game 2 starter Stephen Strasburg, who allowed just those two runs over six innings, said last week. “Maybe this year we’re the buzz saw.”
This is an instant classic quote. As with many things in baseball, a metaphor for life. Sometimes you're the paddle, sometimes you're the buzzsaw.
Yes, Cole and Verlander seemed completely unlikely to suffer back to back losses, but after they got to Cole it was far from improbable that Verlander would get touched up. He has not been as spectacular this post season. On the contrary, Strasburg has been a monster. Which leads me to Scherzer. To me, this series comes back to what he did in Game 1. I hate to use the "gutsy" cliche, but for a guy that had no command, to keep his team in the game was a pure act of competitive will. The Nats bats have been impressive, no doubt, but Scherzer and Strasburg have been the primary factors in this particular buzz saw.
There is an old saying in baseball that great pitching, great defense and timely hitting trumps all. This is what the Nationals have done throughout the playoffs against "better teams on paper". Love it when old sayings are true. When I look at this objectively, Verlander kept them in the game and went toe to toe with Strasburg throughout the game. They were on a similar pitch count and both settled down after a rough first inning. However, then Nats defense was much better. The Astros defense was exposed for poor judgement. Bregman knows he has to hold that infield hit ball which led two more runs and opened the flood gates because of an errant throw to first. Okay Verlander gave up the go ahead to Suzuki but that is just one run and you've got to be disciplined with decisions to keep your team in the game. The Astros just looked sloppy, and they didn't know what to do because they've never been in that position before. The Astros dug themselves a hole and their bats couldn't get them out....so much for timely hitting.
There were glimpse of the Nats playing this well during the season, but nothing like the streak they are on now. The Nats are my national league team and I follow them pretty closely. The Astros just look lost and they are trying to blast themselves out of this offensive funk. This is playing right into the Nats hands.
As always, JMO.
On another note, Phillies get Girardi! As a lifer, I am really happy and hope he can right the ship with his experience.
Maybe I’m crazy but I still think the Astros win the series. I never thought that last night’s game was a must-win. Now, tomorrow’s game is definitely a must win for them.
Regarding the Nats, as soon as they beat the Dodgers, I told some friends that they were going to the WS because I felt like their pitching would dominate the Cards.
As a Braves fan watching the Nats down the stretch, it was apparent that they were the one team that I don’t think any NL team wanted to get in.
I think the rest of the series will be epic but the Astros definitely have to win tomorrow.
hshuler posted:Maybe I’m crazy but I still think the Astros win the series. I never thought that last night’s game was a must-win. Now, tomorrow’s game is definitely a must win for them.
Regarding the Nats, as soon as they beat the Dodgers, I told some friends that they were going to the WS because I felt like their pitching would dominate the Cards.
As a Braves fan watching the Nats down the stretch, it was apparent that they were the one team that I don’t think any NL team wanted to get in.
I think the rest of the series will be epic but the Astros definitely have to win tomorrow.
Historically speaking they have about a 15% chance.
Wechson posted:hshuler posted:Maybe I’m crazy but I still think the Astros win the series. I never thought that last night’s game was a must-win. Now, tomorrow’s game is definitely a must win for them.
Regarding the Nats, as soon as they beat the Dodgers, I told some friends that they were going to the WS because I felt like their pitching would dominate the Cards.
As a Braves fan watching the Nats down the stretch, it was apparent that they were the one team that I don’t think any NL team wanted to get in.
I think the rest of the series will be epic but the Astros definitely have to win tomorrow.
Historically speaking they have about a 15% chance.
The stat that was mentioned was out of 15 teams to go 0-2 in the first two games, only three had gone on to win the WS. The last one being the '96 Yankees.
Fangraphs playoff odds still give the astros a 35% chance to win the series, higher than the initial 30% they gave the nats.
Is Fangraphs watching the series or are they on vacation somewhere with no wifi?
Is Greinke pitching in Game 3?
3and2Fastball posted:Is Greinke pitching in Game 3?
That's what they indicated during last night's broadcast. Sanchez for the Nationals.
ZiPS on Fangraph has the Astros at 25.7%. The ZiPS projection takes probable starting pitchers into account. The coin flip method puts the Astros at 18.8%, so the 2019 numbers still say that the Astros are the "better team". Of course, none of these methods could have predicted Kurt Suzuki would hit a pivotal home run off of Verlander.
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Perhaps he is "due" but it is tough to bet on Greinke in the postseason. (Career 4.44 ERA in the postseason and most of his best outings were in 2015 & prior)
MidAtlanticDad posted:ZiPS on Fangraph has the Astros at 25.7%. The ZiPS projection takes probable starting pitchers into account. The coin flip method puts the Astros at 18.8%, so the 2019 numbers still say that the Astros are the "better team". Of course, none of these methods could have predicted Kurt Suzuki would hit a pivotal home run off of Verlander.
It was only shown briefly last night, but the stats for Suzuki vs Verlander showed Suzuki has had pretty good success against Verlander. Something like a .356 average when facing Verlander. Still, given Suzuki's stats in the playoffs, it was surprising.
Wechson posted:Dominik85 posted:PABaseball posted:Dirtbag30 posted:Seems pretty simple and apolitical to me: Astros AGM stuck his foot in it big time and publicly in a moment of jubilation. Even worse, it was on a taboo topic (domestic violence). Then the organization compounds error by (a) falsely blaming the reporter and (b) failing to admit original mistake. Thanks to a healthy dose of arrogance, the Astros turned a bad situation worse and created a huge PR nightmare/crisis for themselves,
Time to go back to PR 101, do a bigger mea culpa, and admit ALL the mistakes. Only then will this pass.
After Game 1 this "story" won't be a story anymore. So no they don't have to admit all the "mistakes". Because nobody cares and they are not going to fire a guy who helped but a world series team together.
But just tell me which is more believable?
Astros exec randomly went up to three female reporters out of nowhere and let them know how happy he is about signing the man on a night where he blew a world series clinching save? Because he's just that misogynistic?
or
Media members misinterpret comments?
I wasn't there and don't know what was said nor do I care. But how can discipline be called for when nobody knows what happens? Knowing how easily things get misinterpreted and taken out of context how can we say that he did anything wrong in the first place let alone needs to be disciplined for it? The Astros are playing in the world series tonight, there is no PR crisis.
Well the report wasn't he went there and told them how happy he was but that he was screaming it aggressively in their direction several times including using of the f word and Astros didn't deny that.
Probably wasn't meant misogynistic either but out of the emotion. Still terrible handling by the Astros PR guys, they could probably have resolved that already had they acted like it is 2019 and not like it is 1988.
Here’s an assessment from the N.Y. Post, which for those who aren’t from the NY area is the city’s conservative leaning local tabloid.
https://nypost.com/2019/10/22/...tter_impression=true
I would agree that this story won’t stay in the headlines for long, likely a 24hr cycle. But it’s clear Taubman’s remarks were intended for the female reporter, and were absolutely misogynistic. It was an immature and stupid thing to do, even in a heightened emotional moment. You’re a major executive, in a big market city, representing a top tier organization. Matters were made worse by the clubs PR response, which I guarantee will end up with someone (perhaps a team of people) being fired. It was the opposite of damage control. The only response that was appropriate, intelligent and displayed any understanding of the situation came from Hinch. This will all blow over, but it shouldn’t have happened in the first place and could have been diminished by a more professional initial response.
Aaaaand Taubman was just fired by the Astros.
Why am I not surprised......
hshuler posted:Maybe I’m crazy but I still think the Astros win the series. I never thought that last night’s game was a must-win. Now, tomorrow’s game is definitely a must win for them.
Regarding the Nats, as soon as they beat the Dodgers, I told some friends that they were going to the WS because I felt like their pitching would dominate the Cards.
As a Braves fan watching the Nats down the stretch, it was apparent that they were the one team that I don’t think any NL team wanted to get in.
I think the rest of the series will be epic but the Astros definitely have to win tomorrow.
If the Astros were up against anyone else, I would agree with you, but I have come to accept that the Nationals have been on one of those "team of destiny" rolls and cannot be stopped. At this point I don't think the '39 Yankees and the Big Red Machine combined could beat them.*
* - of course I'm trying to jinx them, as every baseball prediction I have ever made has been wrong.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/10...taubman-fired-astros
The Astros just fired Taubman. He obviously did something wrong. But I’m tired of people being fired for every politically incorrect thing they do. We’ve become a society that‘s turned getting offended into an art. Even though I’m a right leaning libertarian I was against forcing Al Franken to resign.
Unless there’s a track record the best solution is make the person grovel in public for an apology. Then make them do some kind of community service until they get it.
Thwre are too many males being tossed out of colleges without due process due to zero tolerance after an accusation.
RJM posted:https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/10...taubman-fired-astros
The Astros just fired Taubman. He obviously did something wrong. But I’m tired of people being fired for every politically incorrect thing they do. We’ve become a society that‘s turned getting offended into an art. Even though I’m a right leaning libertarian I was against forcing Al Franken to resign.
Unless there’s a track record the best solution is make the person grovel in public for an apology. Then make them do some kind of community service until they get it.
Thwre are too many males being tossed out of colleges without due process due to zero tolerance after an accusation.
I don't think you should try to turn Taubman into some kind of poster child for men treated unfairly. This is not a murky he-said/she-said case and there is no doubt about what happened. If I did what he did (in front of at least four witnesses, too), I'd expect to be fired. If I did what he did and compounded that by getting nationwide bad press for my employer--an employer that is in the entertainment business and relies on the public's goodwill--I'd expect to be ushered to the exit so fast that there would be a serious risk of neck injury. If the Astros had handled the aftermath differently, then maybe Taubman could have saved his job. But once they took to the barricades and witnesses started calling them out on their version of events, there was no way.
We also don't know what other incidents may be in Taubman's personnel files. Maybe this was a one-time mistake--I have no idea. But given what we know, would it surprise you if he has faced prior complaints from the women he works with? Most men would not openly taunt a group of women in a workplace setting about a domestic violence issue. I'm cynical enough to believe that if Taubman had a 97 mph fastball, he might have skated. But however talented he may be, the Astros can replace him without busting the salary cap or giving up prospects. This was a no-brainer.
I’m not making Taubman a poster child for anything. We don’t know if there’s anything else. So we have to assume not. I’m tired of the “I’m offended by words, hung the sucker” movement. Sure, he was wrong. What he said was offensive. Find an appropriate punishment short of firing.