This one might be fun to see how others think.
This inning is the difference between you winning and losing the game. This is how it unfolds:
1. Leadoff batter reaches on single. Runner on first, no outs.
2. Error on pickoff attempt, runner advances to 2nd with no outs.
3. Second batter up sacrifices runner to 3rd. One out.
4. Third batter up doubles to score the runner from third.
Next 2 batters are retired. The run that scored turns out to be the winning differential in the game.
Which of the four events was the biggest play impacting the probability of the run scoring? Lead off batter reaching? The error? The Sac bunt? Or the RBI double?