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This one might be fun to see how others think.

This inning is the difference between you winning and losing the game. This is how it unfolds:

1. Leadoff batter reaches on single. Runner on first, no outs.

2. Error on pickoff attempt, runner advances to 2nd with no outs.

3. Second batter up sacrifices runner to 3rd. One out.

4. Third batter up doubles to score the runner from third.

Next 2 batters are retired. The run that scored turns out to be the winning differential in the game.

Which of the four events was the biggest play impacting the probability of the run scoring? Lead off batter reaching? The error? The Sac bunt? Or the RBI double?

Last edited by Francis7
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@Consultant posted:

There are 11 ways to score from 3B with less than 2 outs, you list the 11 and you will have your answer


Here are the ways I know bases are awarded.   Some need runners on 2nd and 1st to be forced in.  (Catcher's Interference - Ball lodged in equipment)

sac fly
sac bunt
obstruction of the runner
touching ball with dislodged equipment
pitched ball lodged in catchers or umps equipment
ball out of play - a fielder with 1 out catches a foul near the stands and tosses the ball to a spectator before time is granted
catchers interference

Run probability matrix

Inning start:  0.481 runs

Batter  reaches first: 0.859 runs (+0.378)

Error: runner on second, no outs: 1.1 runs (+0.241)

Sacrifice: runner on third 1 out: . 950 (-0.15) runs

Rbi double: 1 run-0.95 runs+0.664 runs -0.353 runs (2 out runner on 3rd): +0.364

Keep in mind this is mlb data, don't have a matrix for HS ball level.

Last edited by Dominik85

Some have mentioned the obvious importance of a runner reaching base but left out the part about it being the LEADOFF batter.  To me, getting a runner on with no outs is huge.  It is a close second that the defense then committed an error to put that runner in scoring position with no outs.  After that, scoring that one is already probable.

Last edited by cabbagedad

The momentum of the game probably swung when the pitcher threw the ball away on a failed pick off. Mistakes are how you usually lose games. Lead-off hits happen quite often, and it is not uncommon to get stranded (as long as you keep your composure). The double was likely the result of this momentum change.

That is unless the kid who hit the double went 3-4 with with 2 doubles, a 5-3 rocket, and a HR. Then the coach is at fault for this rally, because his dumb@$$ didn't give the stud the open base 1st and 2nd with 1 out = inning ending DP play ball to escape without damage.   

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