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NCAA cancels remaining winter and spring championships

Today, NCAA President Mark Emmert and the Board of Governors canceled the Division I men’s and women’s 2020 basketball tournaments, as well as all remaining winter and spring NCAA championships. This decision is based on the evolving COVID-19 public health threat, our ability to ensure the events do not contribute to spread of the pandemic, and the impracticality of hosting such events at any time during this academic year given ongoing decisions by other entities.

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The NCAA is trying to prevent your children and your families from getting ill. This country was not and is not prepared.

Who has lost their minds are our senators and congressman. Get them on the phone or send email,  attend a town hall meeting and let them know how you  really feel.

#1bballmomfan posted:

I’m praying the eligibility is extended. My senior son is devastated that his baseball career abruptly came to a screeching halt.  Wondering how it will work out of they would give this year back to them or......issue some sort of extension to those impacted.  Would love to hear everyone voice on this. 

 Not saying I’m for or against ...How many seniors would go back an extra year just to play another season? How many parents would pay for an extra year of college just so their kid could play? It would be worth it if a kid is legitimate grad school material.

I do come from some experience. My son lost his senior year of high school soccer to injury. He missed his fifth year senior year of college baseball to injury. He found out it was over the first week of February in a doctor’s office. He was hoping to play. Instead he had a second surgery in June. So the scenarios are similar. 

Last edited by RJM

Well, they can shut stuff down like they should have weeks ago, or more kids can plan to go their grandparents funerals.  And I don't think that's hyperbole at this point, the growth curve on the virus in the US is absurd and we're following the Italian path with 10 times the population and none of the preparation.

That aside, I am interested in where things are going to go eligibility wise.  My senior had already suffered a season-ending injury and was planning on getting a redshirt (and exploring a hardship waiver to get a sixth year, since he already has a freshman redshirt) to potentially retain eligibility in grad school.  Their season was officially canceled today. He's already got 3 grad school offers at schools he might be able to sneak into the bullpen for, and where having two years left might be a plus.

I would think the NCAA would have little to lose by extending eligibility for everyone losing a season to this, which is probably why they won't, of course, being them.

 

TPM posted:

The NCAA is trying to prevent your children and your families from getting ill. This country was not and is not prepared.

Who has lost their minds are our senators and congressman. Get them on the phone or send email,  attend a town hall meeting and let them know how you  really feel.

This is rich. Get your senators on the phone and bitch about why they aren't prepared for a virus that didn't exist a few weeks ago...demand vaccines from an industry that is among the slowest moving fields that has countless levels of regulated testing and studies involved to get any new drug released.

Demand they no how you feel about China attempting to thin down its population and it getting out of control.

you should loud proud and make sure that everyone knows you are scared to death of the monster under your bed and we all are going to act like a 3yr old throwing a tantrum until we are certain there is plenty of toilet paper available for all. 

old_school posted:
TPM posted:

The NCAA is trying to prevent your children and your families from getting ill. This country was not and is not prepared.

Who has lost their minds are our senators and congressman. Get them on the phone or send email,  attend a town hall meeting and let them know how you  really feel.

This is rich. Get your senators on the phone and bitch about why they aren't prepared for a virus that didn't exist a few weeks ago...demand vaccines from an industry that is among the slowest moving fields that has countless levels of regulated testing and studies involved to get any new drug released.

Demand they no how you feel about China attempting to thin down its population and it getting out of control.

you should loud proud and make sure that everyone knows you are scared to death of the monster under your bed and we all are going to act like a 3yr old throwing a tantrum until we are certain there is plenty of toilet paper available for all. 

Sure, ad hominem, that's the way to solve everything.

jacjacatk posted:
old_school posted:
TPM posted:

The NCAA is trying to prevent your children and your families from getting ill. This country was not and is not prepared.

Who has lost their minds are our senators and congressman. Get them on the phone or send email,  attend a town hall meeting and let them know how you  really feel.

This is rich. Get your senators on the phone and bitch about why they aren't prepared for a virus that didn't exist a few weeks ago...demand vaccines from an industry that is among the slowest moving fields that has countless levels of regulated testing and studies involved to get any new drug released.

Demand they no how you feel about China attempting to thin down its population and it getting out of control.

you should loud proud and make sure that everyone knows you are scared to death of the monster under your bed and we all are going to act like a 3yr old throwing a tantrum until we are certain there is plenty of toilet paper available for all. 

Sure, ad hominem, that's the way to solve everything.

Having spend much of the morning reading about real doctors and real epidemiologists predicting upwards of a million deaths from this thing, I actually find it comforting to learn that they and the media are all making this sh!t up to score points in an election.  But what surprised me is that apparently the virus originated in some kind of Chinese government domestic genocide project gone awry? That part is disturbing. 

Unfortunately, I think for the first time in their existence the NCAA will consider them STUDENT-atheletes and deny any extended eligibility. When the numbers work in favor of the NCAA they are athletes, when the numbers don't they will be considered students. There is just too much money involved in granting extra years to all of the scholarship athletes.  I think coaches have their recruiting down to a science a power 5 coach knows how many scholarship players he will have for next year and the year after. He has over-recruited already. Now if all his Seniors come back and Juniors who he was expecting to get drafted it will cripple his recruiting for the next 4 or 5 years. The mid majors to lower d1 schools don't have the money to keep 5 classes worth of athletes. If we were dealing with a more honorable institution I would think differently but I have very little faith in the NCAA. Maybe they will prove me wrong.

jacjacatk posted:
old_school posted:
TPM posted:

The NCAA is trying to prevent your children and your families from getting ill. This country was not and is not prepared.

Who has lost their minds are our senators and congressman. Get them on the phone or send email,  attend a town hall meeting and let them know how you  really feel.

This is rich. Get your senators on the phone and bitch about why they aren't prepared for a virus that didn't exist a few weeks ago...demand vaccines from an industry that is among the slowest moving fields that has countless levels of regulated testing and studies involved to get any new drug released.

Demand they no how you feel about China attempting to thin down its population and it getting out of control.

you should loud proud and make sure that everyone knows you are scared to death of the monster under your bed and we all are going to act like a 3yr old throwing a tantrum until we are certain there is plenty of toilet paper available for all. 

Sure, ad hominem, that's the way to solve everything.

I don't think this was an ad hominem.  The one making the argument was not attacked rather the argument was.

Teaching Elder posted:
jacjacatk posted:
old_school posted:
TPM posted:

The NCAA is trying to prevent your children and your families from getting ill. This country was not and is not prepared.

Who has lost their minds are our senators and congressman. Get them on the phone or send email,  attend a town hall meeting and let them know how you  really feel.

This is rich. Get your senators on the phone and bitch about why they aren't prepared for a virus that didn't exist a few weeks ago...demand vaccines from an industry that is among the slowest moving fields that has countless levels of regulated testing and studies involved to get any new drug released.

Demand they no how you feel about China attempting to thin down its population and it getting out of control.

you should loud proud and make sure that everyone knows you are scared to death of the monster under your bed and we all are going to act like a 3yr old throwing a tantrum until we are certain there is plenty of toilet paper available for all. 

Sure, ad hominem, that's the way to solve everything.

I don't think this was an ad hominem.  The one making the argument was not attacked rather the argument was.

You're right, it was my argument which was behaving like a 3-year old throwing a tantrum and which is scared to death of the monster under the bed.

Thanks for ad hominem-splaining it to me.

My wife works in an ER. Every day I expect to have her come home sick, and for me to find out that I, and the rest of my family are infected. The fact that people are worried about their sons not being able to play baseball at a time like this just makes me shake my head.

Just be glad you have healthy, strong children. Keep them as isolated as possible from social contact. For once, actually encourage them to go on social media!

jacjacatk posted:
Teaching Elder posted:
jacjacatk posted:
old_school posted:
TPM posted:

The NCAA is trying to prevent your children and your families from getting ill. This country was not and is not prepared.

Who has lost their minds are our senators and congressman. Get them on the phone or send email,  attend a town hall meeting and let them know how you  really feel.

This is rich. Get your senators on the phone and bitch about why they aren't prepared for a virus that didn't exist a few weeks ago...demand vaccines from an industry that is among the slowest moving fields that has countless levels of regulated testing and studies involved to get any new drug released.

Demand they no how you feel about China attempting to thin down its population and it getting out of control.

you should loud proud and make sure that everyone knows you are scared to death of the monster under your bed and we all are going to act like a 3yr old throwing a tantrum until we are certain there is plenty of toilet paper available for all. 

Sure, ad hominem, that's the way to solve everything.

I don't think this was an ad hominem.  The one making the argument was not attacked rather the argument was.

You're right, it was my argument which was behaving like a 3-year old throwing a tantrum and which is scared to death of the monster under the bed.

Thanks for ad hominem-splaining it to me.

Ehh. Que?

Teaching Elder posted:
jacjacatk posted:
Teaching Elder posted:
jacjacatk posted:
old_school posted:
TPM posted:

The NCAA is trying to prevent your children and your families from getting ill. This country was not and is not prepared.

Who has lost their minds are our senators and congressman. Get them on the phone or send email,  attend a town hall meeting and let them know how you  really feel.

This is rich. Get your senators on the phone and bitch about why they aren't prepared for a virus that didn't exist a few weeks ago...demand vaccines from an industry that is among the slowest moving fields that has countless levels of regulated testing and studies involved to get any new drug released.

Demand they no how you feel about China attempting to thin down its population and it getting out of control.

you should loud proud and make sure that everyone knows you are scared to death of the monster under your bed and we all are going to act like a 3yr old throwing a tantrum until we are certain there is plenty of toilet paper available for all. 

Sure, ad hominem, that's the way to solve everything.

I don't think this was an ad hominem.  The one making the argument was not attacked rather the argument was.

You're right, it was my argument which was behaving like a 3-year old throwing a tantrum and which is scared to death of the monster under the bed.

Thanks for ad hominem-splaining it to me.

Ehh. Que?

To be fair, I lost the quote thread, and it was actually TPM that was being called a scaredy-cat 3-year-old tantrum thrower, not me.

I've never met the guy, so I suppose it's possible that's accurate, but it's certainly not a reasoned counter to his suggestion that you call your representatives and demand action.

PitchingFan posted:

According to Kendall Rogers NCAA will give all an extra year.  Will they backup more and play out the rest of the year after April 1?

Probably a more relevant question would be, “is the football season going to start on time?” I don’t know why anyone believes the college baseball season, MLB, NBA and NHL will resume in a few weeks. It can’t even be considered  and projected until the peak is behind us. 

Last edited by RJM
57special posted:

My wife works in an ER. Every day I expect to have her come home sick, and for me to find out that I, and the rest of my family are infected. The fact that people are worried about their sons not being able to play baseball at a time like this just makes me shake my head.

 

No offense intended but...

This isn't the "my elderly parents are in a nursing home" forum. If it were and someone posted complaining that their kid can't play baseball I could see your point. The fact is this forum concerns kids and baseball. The parents voicing their concerns about the current situation seems appropriate to me.

Also, my understanding is the young are basically immune to this. For most of the rest of us, it's not much worse than the flu. Yes, being confined to your home for two weeks would suck. Yes, I understand about limiting the spread of covid. That said your post is kinda "going off the deep end" and there's just too much of that right now. IMO

SomeBaseballDad posted:
57special posted:

My wife works in an ER. Every day I expect to have her come home sick, and for me to find out that I, and the rest of my family are infected. The fact that people are worried about their sons not being able to play baseball at a time like this just makes me shake my head.

 

No offense intended but...

This isn't the "my elderly parents are in a nursing home" forum. If it were and someone posted complaining that their kid can't play baseball I could see your point. The fact is this forum concerns kids and baseball. The parents voicing their concerns about the current situation seems appropriate to me.

Also, my understanding is the young are basically immune to this. For most of the rest of us, it's not much worse than the flu. Yes, being confined to your home for two weeks would suck. Yes, I understand about limiting the spread of covid. That said your post is kinda "going off the deep end" and there's just too much of that right now. IMO

Absolute offense intended, please educate yourself. Your understanding is wrong. At this point everyone should know this is worse than the flu. This isn't confined to your house for two weeks.....

How about this, we each put up 1k, and pick the number of people that perish from this by 5/1/20 in the continental US. Closest collects and donates to a charity, happy to have a 3rd party handle this.

SomeBaseballDad posted:
57special posted:

My wife works in an ER. Every day I expect to have her come home sick, and for me to find out that I, and the rest of my family are infected. The fact that people are worried about their sons not being able to play baseball at a time like this just makes me shake my head.

 

No offense intended but...

This isn't the "my elderly parents are in a nursing home" forum. If it were and someone posted complaining that their kid can't play baseball I could see your point. The fact is this forum concerns kids and baseball. The parents voicing their concerns about the current situation seems appropriate to me.

Also, my understanding is the young are basically immune to this. For most of the rest of us, it's not much worse than the flu. Yes, being confined to your home for two weeks would suck. Yes, I understand about limiting the spread of covid. That said your post is kinda "going off the deep end" and there's just too much of that right now. IMO

Rudy Gobert, age 27 is positive and infected. Appears his teammate who is infected is connected to Gobert.

Wonder about this “immunity” position being medically confirmed? Isn’t the evidence that their  can be infection and spread of the infection without showing evidence of illness?

Seems odd that a 27 year old can be infected and spread the infection but it is “going off the deep end” for 57 to bring in real world concerns especially when a real world basketball player has probably infected a teammate and is now apologizing for his cavalier acts in the face of the disease

infielddad posted:
SomeBaseballDad posted:
57special posted:

My wife works in an ER. Every day I expect to have her come home sick, and for me to find out that I, and the rest of my family are infected. The fact that people are worried about their sons not being able to play baseball at a time like this just makes me shake my head.

 

No offense intended but...

This isn't the "my elderly parents are in a nursing home" forum. If it were and someone posted complaining that their kid can't play baseball I could see your point. The fact is this forum concerns kids and baseball. The parents voicing their concerns about the current situation seems appropriate to me.

Also, my understanding is the young are basically immune to this. For most of the rest of us, it's not much worse than the flu. Yes, being confined to your home for two weeks would suck. Yes, I understand about limiting the spread of covid. That said your post is kinda "going off the deep end" and there's just too much of that right now. IMO

Rudy Gobert, age 27 is positive and infected. Appears his teammate who is infected is connected to Gobert.

Wonder about this “immunity” position being medically confirmed? Isn’t the evidence that their  can be infection and spread of the infection without showing evidence of illness?

Seems odd that a 27 year old can be infected and spread the infection but it is “going off the deep end” for 57 to bring in real world concerns especially when a real world basketball player has probably infected a teammate and is now apologizing for his cavalier acts in the face of the disease

He's a DS, but did he die, did the other guy die or just get sick?

The concern is to limit it so that it doesn't overwhelm our health care system. Not that it is the zombie apocalypse.

Last edited by SomeBaseballDad
nycdad posted:
SomeBaseballDad posted:
57special posted:

My wife works in an ER. Every day I expect to have her come home sick, and for me to find out that I, and the rest of my family are infected. The fact that people are worried about their sons not being able to play baseball at a time like this just makes me shake my head.

 

No offense intended but...

This isn't the "my elderly parents are in a nursing home" forum. If it were and someone posted complaining that their kid can't play baseball I could see your point. The fact is this forum concerns kids and baseball. The parents voicing their concerns about the current situation seems appropriate to me.

Also, my understanding is the young are basically immune to this. For most of the rest of us, it's not much worse than the flu. Yes, being confined to your home for two weeks would suck. Yes, I understand about limiting the spread of covid. That said your post is kinda "going off the deep end" and there's just too much of that right now. IMO

Absolute offense intended, please educate yourself. Your understanding is wrong. At this point everyone should know this is worse than the flu. This isn't confined to your house for two weeks.....

How about this, we each put up 1k, and pick the number of people that perish from this by 5/1/20 in the continental US. Closest collects and donates to a charity, happy to have a 3rd party handle this.

I guess that would depend on whether we handle this like South Korea or Italy.

I tend to listen to and rely on Dr. Anthony Fauci as to the risks of infection and disease and reasons to make all appropriate steps toward mitigation rather than a poster who makes false statements about immunity and compounds the false information by suggesting death is the measure of risk.

SI actually has information from doctors on the infection risks from youth sports 

The doctors don’t seem to agree with your understanding on “immunity.”

 

infielddad posted:

I tend to listen to and rely on Dr. Anthony Fauci as to the risks of infection and disease and reasons to make all appropriate steps toward mitigation rather than a poster who makes false statements about immunity and compounds the false information by suggesting death is the measure of risk.

SI actually has information from doctors on the infection risks from youth sports 

The doctors don’t seem to agree with your understanding on “immunity.”

 

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

SomeBaseballDad posted:
infielddad posted:

I tend to listen to and rely on Dr. Anthony Fauci as to the risks of infection and disease and reasons to make all appropriate steps toward mitigation rather than a poster who makes false statements about immunity and compounds the false information by suggesting death is the measure of risk.

SI actually has information from doctors on the infection risks from youth sports 

The doctors don’t seem to agree with your understanding on “immunity.”

 

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

True, but it is very critical to stop the transmission chain to protect the elderly and those with pre-existing condition.  There is also the issue of around 20% of people infected (regardless of age) will develop symptoms severe enough to need support in a hospital to fight off the virus.  This 20% rate can quickly overwhelm our hospital system.  This is what we see in Italy right now.

SomeBaseballDad posted:
infielddad posted:

I tend to listen to and rely on Dr. Anthony Fauci as to the risks of infection and disease and reasons to make all appropriate steps toward mitigation rather than a poster who makes false statements about immunity and compounds the false information by suggesting death is the measure of risk.

SI actually has information from doctors on the infection risks from youth sports 

The doctors don’t seem to agree with your understanding on “immunity.”

 

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

The current case fatality rate for ages 10-39 is still double seasonal flu, for 50+ (that's me) it's an order of magnitude greater and for 70+ (that's my dad, who also has hypertension and diabetes to compound the issue) it's two orders of magnitude greater.

For perspective, for ages 50-59, it's 1.3%, 1 in 77. That's one of my son's teammates' parents, should they all get infected.

For ages 70-79, it's 8%, 1 in 13. For ages 80+ it's 14.8%, 1 in 7. I don't know how many of my son's teammates have living grandparents, but he's got 2, so let's say that's like 50-70 people in those age cohorts. That's 4-10 of them, if they all get infected.  Or 1-2 if only a quarter of them do.

Multiply all those numbers out by all of our kids' parents/grandparents. Oh, and the 10-39 rate is 1 in 500.  How many baseball players do we collectively know that age?  How do we feel about 10% of them getting infected and 1 in 5000 of them being a statistic? Especially if we could do more to limit the spread?

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/cor...e-of-covid-19-by-age

SomeBaseballDad posted:

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

There are a lot of elderly, and a lot of people with pre-existing conditions.  52 million people are over age 65.  16 million people have COPD.  30 million people have diabetes.  28 million people have heart disease.  So what do you suggest? 

Those numbers mean nothing at this point because there's no way to know how many people have actually had it. By far the majority of people who have become ill due to covid have recovered, and every time that happens something very important happens. They build up immunity to it. I've read one of the outcomes to this is that it will become a seasonal problem like the flu or the common cold. Our bodies just need time to build up some immunity. 

Look, I'm not saying there's not reason for concern, but fighting in the streets over toilet paper...... damn. 

 

Last edited by SomeBaseballDad

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

This is  narrow minded view. While only a certain percentage of the population is vulnerable 100% has the potential to be a carrier. Even pets can be carriers. It’s a world wide pandemic. The spread needs to be stopped. 

It’s not unusual in a crisis for the panic to becomes bigger than the actual issue itself. I saw a news clip last night of people at a grocery store hoarding food. It’s not logical. There isn’t a food shortage. There won’t be a food shortage. Even with a run on hand cleansers and toilet paper the stores manage to restock in days. 

By the way, I can spare a square ... for $10 each 😁

 

 

anotherparent posted:
SomeBaseballDad posted:

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

There are a lot of elderly, and a lot of people with pre-existing conditions.  52 million people are over age 65.  16 million people have COPD.  30 million people have diabetes.  28 million people have heart disease.  So what do you suggest? 

Since this is a baseball related site, don’t you think cancelling sports and sending students home, increases risk the to kids and those more vulnerable?

I have 3 kids coming home, they’re young adults and won’t be quarantined in our home, nor does anyone recommend they should be. They’ll go to the gym, Starbucks, hang with their friends, etc.  I would argue the gym and coffee shops at school are cleaner and more controllable than within our communities. I’ve seen and confronted enough aholes not wash their hands, after relieving themselves, to know this to be true

My dad treats us to Easter brunch every year.  We weren’t going this year, as son was to have an away series.  Once he heard the kids would be home, he asked if we could now go to brunch.

I think cancelling the college season had to be done, once the NBA made that move.  But the 2 sports are so very different.  NBA players are in constant contact during a game, they’re in an enclosed arena and said they wouldn’t play without fans.  Baseball is a spread out sport, outdoors and could have gone without fans.

I did read someone on this site suggest a player could be ill, touch the ball and spread it out.  Sorry, but that’s pure paranoia. 

Last edited by CTbballDad
CTbballDad posted:
anotherparent posted:
SomeBaseballDad posted:

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

There are a lot of elderly, and a lot of people with pre-existing conditions.  52 million people are over age 65.  16 million people have COPD.  30 million people have diabetes.  28 million people have heart disease.  So what do you suggest? 

Since this is a baseball related site, don’t you think cancelling sports and sending students home, increases risk the to kids and those more vulnerable?

I have 3 kids coming home, they’re young adults and won’t be quarantined in our home, nor does anyone recommend they should be. They’ll go to the gym, Starbucks, hang with their friends, etc.  I would argue the gym and coffee shops at school are cleaner and more controllable than within our communities. I’ve seen and confronted enough aholes not wash their hands, after relieving themselves, to know this to be true

My dad treats us to Easter brunch every year.  We weren’t going this year, as son was to have an away series.  Once he heard the kids would be home, he asked if we could now go to brunch.

I think cancelling the college season had to be done, once the NBA made that move.  But the 2 sports are so very different.  NBA players are in constant contact during a game, they’re in an enclosed arena and said they wouldn’t play without fans.  Baseball is a spread out sport, outdoors and could have gone without fans.

I did read someone on this site suggest a player could be ill, touch the ball and spread it out.  Sorry, but that’s pure paranoia. 

I think what they are concerned about is players becoming infected while traveling and bringing the virus back to the community/school. 

CTbballDad posted:
anotherparent posted:
SomeBaseballDad posted:

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

There are a lot of elderly, and a lot of people with pre-existing conditions.  52 million people are over age 65.  16 million people have COPD.  30 million people have diabetes.  28 million people have heart disease.  So what do you suggest? 

Since this is a baseball related site, don’t you think cancelling sports and sending students home, increases risk the to kids and those more vulnerable?

I have 3 kids coming home, they’re young adults and won’t be quarantined in our home, nor does anyone recommend they should be. They’ll go to the gym, Starbucks, hang with their friends, etc.  I would argue the gym and coffee shops at school are cleaner and more controllable than within our communities. I’ve seen and confronted enough aholes not wash their hands, after relieving themselves, to know this to be true

My dad treats us to Easter brunch every year.  We weren’t going this year, as son was to have an away series.  Once he heard the kids would be home, he asked if we could now go to brunch.

I think cancelling the college season had to be done, once the NBA made that move.  But the 2 sports are so very different.  NBA players are in constant contact during a game, they’re in an enclosed arena and said they wouldn’t play without fans.  Baseball is a spread out sport, outdoors and could have gone without fans.

I did read someone on this site suggest a player could be ill, touch the ball and spread it out.  Sorry, but that’s pure paranoia. 

Dorms and cafeterias are breeding grounds for infections and viruses. My youngest left for college eight years ago. I haven’t been sick since then. There aren’t kids in the house bringing home viruses from school every day.

With athletes you have teams of kids getting on busses and/or planes (confined areas) multiple times per week, traveling to other areas and returning.

Last edited by RJM

I realize that the reason that I am obsessively thinking (and posting) about this is because I am so heartsick that my son's (and everyone else's) season was cancelled.  I'm trying to make sense of all these issues, when you think about them enough, they do make sense.

Let's say they kept the baseball team around to practice, live in dorms or apartments, etc.  Let's say one got sick, and had to quarantine for 14 days (and it would be more than one - they are in dugouts and locker rooms and showers, breathing the same air, not to mention living together).  Who takes care of them?  Who brings them food?  Who takes them to the hospital if need be?  That's a heck of a lot of support that is required, it would get complicated, fast.  You could say that this is true at all times, students are always getting sick - but this is a very highly infectious disease, with severe outcomes (hospitalization) for 20% of people infected.  What about the coaches, trainers, support staff?  They take it home, spread it to people, sooner or later someone needs hospitalization.  That is what they are urgently trying to slow down.

I agree about just playing/practicing on a field in the open air - I'm hopeful that when my son and his friends are home, they'll be able to do that informally, on the fields that will otherwise be empty.

SomeBaseballDad posted:

Those numbers mean nothing at this point because there's no way to know how many people have actually had it. By far the majority of people who have become ill due to covid have recovered, and every time that happens something very important happens. They build up immunity to it. I've read one of the outcomes to this is that it will become a seasonal problem like the flu or the common cold. Our bodies just need time to build up some immunity. 

Look, I'm not saying there's not reason for concern, but fighting in the streets over toilet paper...... damn. 

 

The number dead now does actually let you backwards extrapolate how many are infected and, potentially, undiagnosed. 

There have been 48 deaths in the US (as of yesterday). If the fatality rate is 0.9% (so it's way less bad than it seems so far because we're missing lots of infected with lack of testing) and the average time to death from infection is 17 days, and the doubling time of infected is 2.4 days, that implies there are actually 800k cases in the US. At which point, stopping the spread is basically hopeless.

The slower it doubles, and the more deadly it actually is, the fewer undiagnosed cases there are waiting in the wings. "Best" case scenario is that there are more like 9000 real cases right now, but realistically it's probably at least 100k.

 

jacjacatk posted:
SomeBaseballDad posted:

Those numbers mean nothing at this point because there's no way to know how many people have actually had it. By far the majority of people who have become ill due to covid have recovered, and every time that happens something very important happens. They build up immunity to it. I've read one of the outcomes to this is that it will become a seasonal problem like the flu or the common cold. Our bodies just need time to build up some immunity. 

Look, I'm not saying there's not reason for concern, but fighting in the streets over toilet paper...... damn. 

 

The number dead now does actually let you backwards extrapolate how many are infected and, potentially, undiagnosed. 

There have been 48 deaths in the US (as of yesterday). If the fatality rate is 0.9% (so it's way less bad than it seems so far because we're missing lots of infected with lack of testing) and the average time to death from infection is 17 days, and the doubling time of infected is 2.4 days, that implies there are actually 800k cases in the US. At which point, stopping the spread is basically hopeless.

The slower it doubles, and the more deadly it actually is, the fewer undiagnosed cases there are waiting in the wings. "Best" case scenario is that there are more like 9000 real cases right now, but realistically it's probably at least 100k.

 

Here is a graph of cases.  You can enlarge it for specific lacalities.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/op...40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 

keewart posted:
jacjacatk posted:
SomeBaseballDad posted:

Those numbers mean nothing at this point because there's no way to know how many people have actually had it. By far the majority of people who have become ill due to covid have recovered, and every time that happens something very important happens. They build up immunity to it. I've read one of the outcomes to this is that it will become a seasonal problem like the flu or the common cold. Our bodies just need time to build up some immunity. 

Look, I'm not saying there's not reason for concern, but fighting in the streets over toilet paper...... damn. 

 

The number dead now does actually let you backwards extrapolate how many are infected and, potentially, undiagnosed. 

There have been 48 deaths in the US (as of yesterday). If the fatality rate is 0.9% (so it's way less bad than it seems so far because we're missing lots of infected with lack of testing) and the average time to death from infection is 17 days, and the doubling time of infected is 2.4 days, that implies there are actually 800k cases in the US. At which point, stopping the spread is basically hopeless.

The slower it doubles, and the more deadly it actually is, the fewer undiagnosed cases there are waiting in the wings. "Best" case scenario is that there are more like 9000 real cases right now, but realistically it's probably at least 100k.

 

Here is a graph of cases.  You can enlarge it for specific lacalities.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/op...40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 

FWIW, the worrisome part of that graphic should be the yellow-dot curve in the lower right that represents cases outside of China and the fact that that curve is still exponential.

The green-dot one that represents China is what happens when you actually lock down a quarantine.  Well, assuming you can have faith in the accuracy of the numbers coming out of China.  If they're hiding stuff at this point, all bets are off.

New cases today in South Florida include:

(2) 20 year old females

19 year old female

22 year old female

19 year old male

Most new cases in our state are travel related. 25 more than yesterday.

Makes sense that there probably are many, many more cases of under 30, and probably will see an increase  in all ages since schools are out.   

 

 

 

 

 

If you are quarantined or isolated in your house for 2+ weeks, that's the one thing people seem not to want to run out of.  Anything but that!  Although, if people can bring you groceries, I'm not sure why they couldn't also bring you TP. 

When I was very young, in the early 70s, I remember a run on TP.  I don't remember why, it just sticks in my mind from the evening news.  Wait:  now we have google!  Apparently it was in 1973, it was fake news before the internet.  Obviously it burrowed into people's psyches.

The TP thing is just what happens when a few people become idiots. At the point the idiots start hoarding, then even those of us who think it's ridiculous have no choice but to join in the fray. 

I'm also shaking my head at some of the irresponsible talk on here of this being some sort of Chinese lab experiment gone wrong. There is ZERO evidence to suggest this, unless you're listening to idiotic Infowars BS...or Kevin McCarthy who floated the idea that it was a North Korean plot. Interestingly, when pressed as to where he heard this he said it came from somebody in a restaurant he was in. Jesus.

You can complain about this as much as you want but the shutdown is necessary and all experts agree about this because health care system isn't prepared to handle millions of cases. 

My doctor believes that it will take just 6-8 weeks of shutdown (sports, school, free time, economy) and then we can go back to normal.

This will cause a recession but better than dragging this out longer causing more harm.

I believe there will be an mlb season but for anything before mid to late june it is just too early. I think in july baseball will be played again.

 

 

 

roothog66 posted:

I had to order TP off of Amazon. The only thing available was Angel Sot. Freaking Angel Soft! I'd rather use any of the above options than Angel Soft, a paper that ALWAYS requires washing your middle finger afterward...think it through, you'll get it.

Dominik85 posted:

You can complain about this as much as you want but the shutdown is necessary and all experts agree about this because health care system isn't prepared to handle millions of cases. 

My doctor believes that it will take just 6-8 weeks of shutdown (sports, school, free time, economy) and then we can go back to normal.

This will cause a recession but better than dragging this out longer causing more harm.

I believe there will be an mlb season but for anything before mid to late june it is just too early. I think in july baseball will be played again.

 

 

 

6-8 weeks is highly optimistic. Actually, shutting things down IS about dragging it out. Dragging it out, so that cases don't all peak in a short period of time is what will keep the death rate low. If you allow it to spread quickly, it will spike and end quicker, but the numbers will peak quickly to levels that we can't handle. "Social distancing" is a way to spread those numbers out and keep the peak low. It won't lessen the eventual number of cases, but will spread them out over a longer period of time.

Dominik85 posted:

You can complain about this as much as you want but the shutdown is necessary and all experts agree about this because health care system isn't prepared to handle millions of cases. 

My doctor believes that it will take just 6-8 weeks of shutdown (sports, school, free time, economy) and then we can go back to normal.

This will cause a recession but better than dragging this out longer causing more harm.

I believe there will be an mlb season but for anything before mid to late june it is just too early. I think in july baseball will be played again.

 

 

 

My doctor says, "Mylanta."

 

And Roothog, you jerk, now I can't NOT think about it.

I go by the grocery store every two or three days since I eat a lot of fresh fruits and vegetables. The shelves looked more depleted then normal. Some people are panic shopping. It’s also the day after weekend grocery shopping.

There isn’t a reason for a food supply shortage. When I crossed paths with a manager I asked if the delivery trucks are schedule for the next couple of days. Store restock after shelves after weekends.

His only comment was”I can’t speak for the corporation.” Under the current circumstances no response is a negative response. Why not say, “Sorry we’re out of some items. The trucks will be here tomorrow?”

I called corporate to find out if it’s time to panic buy due to the panic buying. I was told there is absolutely no food shortage. Stores are receiving regular deliveries.

Yesterday Starbucks banned seated dining and drinking. Today Dunkin followed suit. 

I saw a humorous picture from a grocery store in Boston. The soup shelve was empty except for an almost full inventory of Manhattan clam chowder. We would rather starve to death then eat that crap. Who puts clams in tomato soup? In the immortal words of Patrick Henry, “Give me New England clam chowdah or give me death!”

Last edited by RJM
roothog66 posted:

I had to order TP off of Amazon. The only thing available was Angel Sot. Freaking Angel Soft! I'd rather use any of the above options than Angel Soft, a paper that ALWAYS requires washing your middle finger afterward...think it through, you'll get it.

Why are men so against wipes?  Then there won't be a TP shortage!

TPM posted:
roothog66 posted:

I had to order TP off of Amazon. The only thing available was Angel Sot. Freaking Angel Soft! I'd rather use any of the above options than Angel Soft, a paper that ALWAYS requires washing your middle finger afterward...think it through, you'll get it.

Why are men so against wipes?  Then there won't be a TP shortage!

You're preaching to the choir. I learned the magic of wipes when prepping for my colonoscopy.🙂 Unfortunately, the stores are also out of wipes...and I've got a six month old in the house.

roothog66 posted:
TPM posted:
roothog66 posted:

I had to order TP off of Amazon. The only thing available was Angel Sot. Freaking Angel Soft! I'd rather use any of the above options than Angel Soft, a paper that ALWAYS requires washing your middle finger afterward...think it through, you'll get it.

Why are men so against wipes?  Then there won't be a TP shortage!

You're preaching to the choir. I learned the magic of wipes when prepping for my colonoscopy.🙂 Unfortunately, the stores are also out of wipes...and I've got a six month old in the house.

Well, while taking a shortcut to the pharmacy, I came upon baby wipes! No one thought to check that isle? I didn't load up though, not fair to the babies!

Six month old in the house and no wipes, you really are in trouble!

It's  quite unfortunate that some people go out to bars, concerts and so on sometimes even feeling like heroes saying stuff like "this is America", "freedom" and other bullshit.

Those are the people that will probably cause a total lockdown in 2 weeks were you can't leave home at all like in Spain or Italy. If people act reasonably and only go out on totally necessary stuff a lockdown is probably not even needed but the idiots who dont want to be limited and say it's m life I do what I want are in the end hurting the reasonable ones by forcing the government to a lockdown. 

Well there is also something between stopping life completely and acting like an idiot. I doubt it will take a year, if people act sensibly normal life could continue in 2-3 months.

A total lockdown could come, some countries already did it. But if people act sensibly it could be avoided. This disease won't cause the world to end and I think by end of the year people can live a normal life again (for example if in a next 2 months a vaccine comes out) but it doesn't go away by pretending it is not there.

 

I live in Las Vegas. Last night the Governor of NV instituted a state wide lock down for all non essential services. That includes all casinos being closed. Guests are being sent home after last night. He also closed all gaming at popular locations like at gas stations, grocery stores and local pubs. You know it is bad when Nevada shuts down ALL GAMING!

I know, that sounds crazy. But some people just don't get it and are endangering the rest of the population. There where tons of folks still sitting at the slot machines and at the tables until the adult in the room said to leave. They tell us that smoking will kill you too, but walk into any casino and you'll find plenty that don't listen.

I'm not sure how this will all play out long term but I would rather be cautious than dead. I can't stand what this is doing to the economy and more importantly to peoples lives.  However, the sooner we stay in place, the sooner we can stop the spreed of this virus.

 

20% of people who get it need hospitalization.  It's all about the number of hospital beds and ventilators (and doctors and nurses).

If fewer people get it now, fewer people will be in hospitals now.

Yes, there will be subsequent waves, of the people who didn't get it the first time.  But, there will be fewer cases at any one time, both now and later.

That's what FLATTEN THE CURVE means.  Try to keep the number of infections at any one time as low as possible. 

Teaching Elder posted:

Actually, staying in place could only prolong how long we have to deal with the virus and spawn a rehash at a later date as not enough people will have been infested to build immunity.   Italy may ultimately come out of this better off than many of the rest of the nations.

Prolonging "how long we have to deal with it" is actually the goal. By spreading it out over a longer period of time, you have about the same number of eventual infections, but the goal is to ensure that at any time, the number of currently infected people is kept below the capacity of our medical system. So, Italy, which was overrun and above peak capacity, will probably deal with it for a shorter period of time, but, because peak numbers exceeded capacity, the death rate there will be much higher than here. 

anotherparent posted:

20% of people who get it need hospitalization.  It's all about the number of hospital beds and ventilators (and doctors and nurses).

If fewer people get it now, fewer people will be in hospitals now.

Yes, there will be subsequent waves, of the people who didn't get it the first time.  But, there will be fewer cases at any one time, both now and later.

That's what FLATTEN THE CURVE means.  Try to keep the number of infections at any one time as low as possible. 

Sorry. We were basically posting the same argument at the same time.

roothog66 posted:
Teaching Elder posted:

Actually, staying in place could only prolong how long we have to deal with the virus and spawn a rehash at a later date as not enough people will have been infested to build immunity.   Italy may ultimately come out of this better off than many of the rest of the nations.

Prolonging "how long we have to deal with it" is actually the goal. By spreading it out over a longer period of time, you have about the same number of eventual infections, but the goal is to ensure that at any time, the number of currently infected people is kept below the capacity of our medical system. So, Italy, which was overrun and above peak capacity, will probably deal with it for a shorter period of time, but, because peak numbers exceeded capacity, the death rate there will be much higher than here. 

Italy is a tough comparison. It’s one of the countries with a larger percentage of older, more vulnerable people. Stats can be misused. Maybe one in a thousand high school players in Mike Trout’s graduating class had a shot at pro ball. But Mike Tout’s odds weren’t 1/1000.

RJM posted:

Italy is a tough comparison. It’s one of the countries with a larger percentage of older, more vulnerable people. Stats can be misused. Maybe one in a thousand high school players in Mike Trout’s graduating class had a shot at pro ball. But Mike Tout’s odds weren’t 1/1000.

Stealing this from someone who posted in another thread.

Italy has roughly 60 million people total. Their largest age bracket is 45 to 55. They may have an older average age, due more to low birth rates than a huge number of older citizens, they have roughly 13 million people over 65. The US has roughly 49 million people over 65.  We have 70 plus million baby boomers, that is more people 55 and older in the US than the entire population of Italy. It could be that our death rate ends up higher both by number and percentages than Italy based on the number of Americans in this vulnerable age bracket if we don't do a much better job of slowing infection rates.

As for Italy's healthcare, they rank 3rd in the world in number of critical care beds per capita behind only Germany and the US. To assume our superior healthcare capacity is enough to treat 4 times the vulnerbale population is a stretch.

 

Not to mention our world leading rate of comorbidites such as diabetes and heart disease that impact the death rate from Covid-19 dramatically.

 

RJM posted:
roothog66 posted:
Teaching Elder posted:

Actually, staying in place could only prolong how long we have to deal with the virus and spawn a rehash at a later date as not enough people will have been infested to build immunity.   Italy may ultimately come out of this better off than many of the rest of the nations.

Prolonging "how long we have to deal with it" is actually the goal. By spreading it out over a longer period of time, you have about the same number of eventual infections, but the goal is to ensure that at any time, the number of currently infected people is kept below the capacity of our medical system. So, Italy, which was overrun and above peak capacity, will probably deal with it for a shorter period of time, but, because peak numbers exceeded capacity, the death rate there will be much higher than here. 

Italy is a tough comparison. It’s one of the countries with a larger percentage of older, more vulnerable people. Stats can be misused. Maybe one in a thousand high school players in Mike Trout’s graduating class had a shot at pro ball. But Mike Tout’s odds weren’t 1/1000.

Are you saying that flattening the curve is not the best policy?  Are there any experts saying that?

Teaching Elder posted:

Actually, staying in place could only prolong how long we have to deal with the virus and spawn a rehash at a later date as not enough people will have been infested to build immunity.   Italy may ultimately come out of this better off than many of the rest of the nations.

I was actually thinking about this this morning.  Which countries will come out of this in a better place?  Would it be the country that treats it like a normal flu, let their hospital get overwhelmed, and accept the higher death toll but gets out of the crisis faster or the countries that flattens the curve, prolonging the crisis and economic toll, but lower death rate?

I guess there is a 3rd option.  Countries like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea who tested aggressively from the beginning and clamped down hard for a few weeks.  It looks like they are slowly coming out of the crisis now.

It's an interesting thought experiment and we may be answer this question 1 year from now.  As for me, I want to live in a culture that puts a higher value on life even if it puts us behind after the crisis is over.

RJM posted:
roothog66 posted:
Teaching Elder posted:

Actually, staying in place could only prolong how long we have to deal with the virus and spawn a rehash at a later date as not enough people will have been infested to build immunity.   Italy may ultimately come out of this better off than many of the rest of the nations.

Prolonging "how long we have to deal with it" is actually the goal. By spreading it out over a longer period of time, you have about the same number of eventual infections, but the goal is to ensure that at any time, the number of currently infected people is kept below the capacity of our medical system. So, Italy, which was overrun and above peak capacity, will probably deal with it for a shorter period of time, but, because peak numbers exceeded capacity, the death rate there will be much higher than here. 

Italy is a tough comparison. It’s one of the countries with a larger percentage of older, more vulnerable people. Stats can be misused. Maybe one in a thousand high school players in Mike Trout’s graduating class had a shot at pro ball. But Mike Tout’s odds weren’t 1/1000.

Italy is sort of a worst case scenario (given their poor demographics) of what 10 days in our future looks like, if we do what they did. For right now that looks like a running 10 day projection, though it looks like we might actually be "catching up" on that rate, which is bad.

South Korea's something like the best case scenario of what a day in the future looks like. Though we're so far behind that curve it's not that instructive for the US at this stage.

Problem is, we're not doing anything like what SK was doing, and we're not really doing as much as Italy was at the same point in time, at least not universally. And, in spite of the worse demographics in some respects in Italy, we've got our own issues with lack of general health in more vulnerable portions of the population and demographics with the level of travel that we had going on within the US during the period in question.

Infection rate in the US (to the extent we can actually measure it given lack of testing) is running ahead of where Italy was at the same point in the process now, FWIW.  Italy's rate of growth in infections has begun to slow, but doesn't yet appear to have hit an inflection point.

I'd be astounded if there aren't at least 6 figures of infections in Italy before this is done, and the US will very likely follow at least that far.

Realistically, given what we know about mortality and doubling rates already, it's nearly a certainty that there are already at least a half million infected in Italy, the vast majority of which have gone undetected.

FWIW, you can know if the measures that are being taken are working when the rate of increase in cases from day-to-day starts really decreasing.

If you're picking a thing to be concerned about in the future at this stage, you should probably be more concerned about what school's going to look like in the fall than at any point in the remainder of this school year. And cross your fingers and hope this thing turns out to be really seasonally affected.

 

Also, just fwiw, SK's entire infected population at this point is traceable back to one person that they didn't manage to lock down near the beginning.  Italy's at least partly sure that they know the initial vector for their outbreak. I haven't seen much at all about sourcing infections in the US, which suggests that there are very likely mulitple sources running around that we're unaware of to kick off more clusters going forward.

I don't want to get too political but I think it is a worrying development that some people think that some scientific topics are a political opinion.

Yeah we have freedom of speech and you have the right to believe the earth is flat but you don't have the right to mandate being taken seriously if you state such a thing.

Some things are simply not best decided by opinion or majority decision but by experts and 99% of all medical experts are agreeing what to do here. It is ok to disagree with experts but then don't expect to be taken serious.

This is no attack on people on this forum, most here do know the right thing to do in this situation but more people in general. And even in general most people act sensibly but there are like 10% idiots who are endangering the "good" 90% with their stubbornness.

 

JCG posted:
RJM posted:
roothog66 posted:
Teaching Elder posted:

Actually, staying in place could only prolong how long we have to deal with the virus and spawn a rehash at a later date as not enough people will have been infested to build immunity.   Italy may ultimately come out of this better off than many of the rest of the nations.

Prolonging "how long we have to deal with it" is actually the goal. By spreading it out over a longer period of time, you have about the same number of eventual infections, but the goal is to ensure that at any time, the number of currently infected people is kept below the capacity of our medical system. So, Italy, which was overrun and above peak capacity, will probably deal with it for a shorter period of time, but, because peak numbers exceeded capacity, the death rate there will be much higher than here. 

Italy is a tough comparison. It’s one of the countries with a larger percentage of older, more vulnerable people. Stats can be misused. Maybe one in a thousand high school players in Mike Trout’s graduating class had a shot at pro ball. But Mike Tout’s odds weren’t 1/1000.

Are you saying that flattening the curve is not the best policy?  Are there any experts saying that?

Wow! Some people just look for a fight anywhere they believe they can create it. Are you that bored? Go fight with your wife. I’m not interested. Flattening the curve wasn’t even in my discussion. I only posted you have to be careful with statistics. They can be misleading.

Last edited by RJM

I don't want to get too political but I think it is a worrying development that some people think that some scientific topics are a political opinion.

Tell the Democrats who are trying to hang this around Trump’s neck and the Republicans trying to absolve Trump of blame.

Trust me. These people care more about their side winning a lot more than how many people die and how many people go bankrupt. It’s not about the people. It’s about the power and control.

The government is supposed to be FOR the people. The problem is it’s OWNED by special interest groups. You can find out who the biggest fovernment stockholders are at opensecrets.org

Last edited by RJM
RJM posted:

I don't want to get too political but I think it is a worrying development that some people think that some scientific topics are a political opinion.

Tell the Democrats who are trying to hang this around Trump’s neck and the Republicans trying to absolve Trump of blame.

Trust me. These people care more about their side winning a lot more than how many people die and how many people go bankrupt. It’s not about the people. It’s about the power and control.

The government is supposed to be FOR the people. The problem is it’s OWNED by special interest groups. You can find out who the biggest fovernment stockholders are at opensecrets.org

 Openthebooks.com shows all the government waste.  It will make your head explode.  

It seems some are still doing spring break. Here are some especially bright ones interviewed

https://twitter.com/marclamont...412987191631875?s=09

Can't believe goverment isn't preventing that. I think people should be allowed to go out and for example go for a jog but be reasonable and not excessive. We don't need to lock down people in their house but if that continues they might.

This minority of people who now screems freedom and are unwilling to give away a bit of their freedom could be responsible for the majority losing way more of their freedom.

 

I'm not in a lockdown, I am going out but I also don't do dumbshit stuff.

People should not panic and a month ago your position was the position of reason but now situation has changed and it is not anymore.

As for the consequences they are not just endangering themselves but they are also vectors for the virus and they are not held accountable  for that.I mean you wouldn't call a drunk driver juat enjoying his life, wouldn't you?

I'm certainly not panicking at all but i believe in the position of science and now every expert agrees on what to do. A month ago my position would have been unreasonable but now it is the reasonable position and you can't call people who follow the rules of the experts paranoid although many unfortunately are paranoid now.

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