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πŸ“NEW BLOG ARTICLEπŸ“
While we've been hunkered down trying to help the Class of 2021 survive, a bigger storm has been brewing. It's on the way and projected to roll right over the Class of 2022.
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Josh Rudd

INDEPENDENT COLLEGE BASEBALL SCOUT

FLATGROUND CONTENT PROVIDER

www.JRuddScout.com

Original Post

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Great article Josh, and so true!  It is going to get worse before it gets better...thank you NCAA!

My two cents...my son's D1 recruiting experience was very academically focused.  If there are recruits out there that can separate themselves with combined strong academics and great college baseball skills.....this is the time to leverage the heck out of it!  JMO.

Last edited by fenwaysouth
πŸ“NEW BLOG ARTICLEπŸ“
While we've been hunkered down trying to help the Class of 2021 survive, a bigger storm has been brewing. It's on the way and projected to roll right over the Class of 2022.
πŸ‘‡READ NOWπŸ‘‡

Well done Josh. This is almost exactly what I have been feeling for my son (2022). Sorry for the rant to follow but gonna go stream of consciousness from here on...

In theory from all I have read over the last year or two on this board and elsewhere would make my son at least worth checking into or returning a phone call to a travel coach. Virtually nada on return calls...and he aint reaching out to P5's but is reaching out to D1's (most are HA).

According to my son's college counselor at his school (who is on a first name basis with admissions at every Ivy and HA D1 school in the country) son has no issues at all getting in as an athlete to any school in the country except MIT (not interested in engineering). A 3.7 unweighted gpa, classes with rigor, and a 33 ACT (but test scores will be optional at most schools for the next year or two...so that was fun). Kid is a chiseled 6'4", 195 lb LHH that is a primary C and plays CI/DH for double headers cuz he hits in the middle of the lineup for his team (we are in the upper midwest and he has not played much outside of the midwest so that could definitely be a problem as we did not travel beyond 1 state away last summer but probably did not matter with very little recruiting done in person and school camps non existent).  

The problem is there may be no spots if everyone goes what I call so far the "Richmond" model. UR checks a lot of boxes for many above average baseball players who value academics/baseball/alumni/etc that are not for a variety of reasons P5 kids. Their 2021 roster has 11...yes ELEVEN grad transfers!!! 5 position player and 5 PO's. 7/11 are coming from D1, 4 from D3. In theory any freshman for the next 4-5 years are going to be competing for a roster spot, then spot play, then becoming a regular with kids at least 4 years older than them!!! If the kid happened to play 2 seasons of JUCO (see next paragraph) then up to 6 years older!!! Yikes!!!

The 2 years of JUCO eligibility after this spring season is going to absolutely kill the 2022 and 2023 classes for entry and roster spots on a D1 team. Also keep in mind all those Grad transfers mentioned above to schools that have grad schools. Especially all schools that are not at all difficult to get in to academically.

So much to explore and unpack...have I found a silver lining yet? Help me someone...the lining is sort of a runny turd colored brown so far. But, he keeps eating, lifting, training, and schooling. Is a gap year a possibility? Maybe. How about JUCO? Is it worth losing a year of eligibility taking classes that might be (I have not looked yet) easier than he took as a 9th grader? Maybe? What else to consider...joining the armed forces for 4 years?

Looking more and more like D3 is for he. We have started that search and will continue but its a bummer to crush the kids dreams with data that says 5 D3 kids were drafted last year and 4 of them were Pitchers (dont know the exact number but it is freaking low).

Good luck to all 2022's...most may need it except the kids that are already committed to honorable programs who dont back out on kids.

@used2lurk posted:

.......................................

So much to explore and unpack...have I found a silver lining yet? Help me someone...the lining is sort of a runny turd colored brown so far. But, he keeps eating, lifting, training, and schooling. Is a gap year a possibility? Maybe. How about JUCO? Is it worth losing a year of eligibility taking classes that might be (I have not looked yet) easier than he took as a 9th grader? Maybe? What else to consider...joining the armed forces for 4 years?

..........................................



used2lurk,

Not sure if I fully understand what you've written above about your son's recruiting experience so far, but I'll take a run at it.  It is great that your son's guidance councelor is on a first name basis with his target schools.  Your son also has very recruitable academic metrics for these same schools.   Your son has the academics covered.

What I'm not understanding is what has he done or doing on the athletic side of the ledger?  Does his travel coach or high school coach know the targeted schools RC or HC by first name?  To finish this race, you have to get past the first hurdle.   In the case of the Ivys, the first hurdle is baseball need and baseball talent with a quick follow up question about the recruits academics.   My point is I think you are putting the cart before the horse.   Once the HC is interested in him athletically then he will do a cursory review of his academics before championing him to Admissions through a formal process called a pre-read.  So, going back to my earlier question...who is athletically advocating for your son to these targeted schools?

PS...If you want to take this offline in a PM, please feel free.  This is going in a different direction than Josh Rudd started.

"Top-end D2 baseball is already better than the bottom-end of D1. Talented transfers are aware of that, so don’t be surprised to see top prospects disregard the β€œOne-Time Transfer Rule” in favor of a nationally recognized D2. MLB organization have already begun mobilizing their scouts to see more D2 baseball than ever before."

So...

You're saying there's a chance?

https://community.hsbaseballwe...el-at-d2-offensively

@Francis7 posted:

In the other thread I was wondering how someone could dominate offensively for 4 years in D2 and not be given consideration to play professionally.

Not sure if I need to answer that?

Very logical/simple reasons exist. I believe people vastly under-estimate the talent pool within America. Also, I forgot to mention the 17 yr old from the DR with a ton of upside. There's a lot of those guys as well.

Getting back to the original topic, 22's are definitely going to feel the squeeze. At best, I would say this is going to linger for 23's as well. In my opinion "fishing in the right pond" and "going to where they love you" has never been more important. 

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