I was wondering for a pitcher in the low to mid 80's what decrease or increase in velocity is readily noticeable without the benefit of a radar gun? Is it 3 or 4 miles per hour can people tell if there's is a 1-2 mile difference?
Original Post
Replies sorted oldest to newest
I dunno. This is literally my job and I suck at eyeballing it.
Gotta use a gun. I've seen guys who look 85 actually touching 90. And guys throwing 83 that looked 88.
It is tough. I can usually notice it with my own sons if its a couple miles an hour just because I see them so much but I don't have a clue with other players. One of the pitching coaches my sons had in the past was amazing at being able to tell. My experience is that most can't however.
I can't tell. I don't know how many times I've watched a kid and thought he was slinging it only to gun him and get 75 or watched a kid that is throwing mid-upper 80's and would never have guessed. Even with my own kid I can't tell. A lot of it has to do with size, often. I think smaller kids often look like they're putting more energy into it and look faster, while bigger pitchers seem to be low-intent, whereas I think, in reality, the effort level is the same but longer limbs just appear to be moving slower.
I'll even add to that. I've spoken to my pitchers who often think they were throwing harder only to tell them they were down a tick or two. Just last week, I spoke to my son after a game. I asked him how hard he thought he was throwing. He thought he was down, velocity-wise. He was surprised to learn he was throwing 88, which is pretty much top velocity for him right now. With my pitchers, I often view it as a plus when they don't feel they are throwing that hard, but are. Real velocity gains come without this feeling that you're pushing it so much.
Feeling like you aren't throwing hard generally comes with improved mechanics. The arm drags less through the motion and moves more fluidly through it's action, and it feels like one is not throwing as hard but are actually throwing harder.
Teaching Elder posted:Feeling like you aren't throwing hard generally comes with improved mechanics. The arm drags less through the motion and moves more fluidly through it's action, and it feels like one is not throwing as hard but are actually throwing harder.
That's what I always tell my kids. When you don't feel like you're having to throw so hard to pitch with velocity, that's when you've actually attained it.
Baseball-Dad posted:I was wondering for a pitcher in the low to mid 80's what decrease or increase in velocity is readily noticeable without the benefit of a radar gun? Is it 3 or 4 miles per hour can people tell if there's is a 1-2 mile difference?
I'm blindly guessing at the back story here. I can usually tell if one of my guys doesn't have his usual velo and it often equates to that 3-4 mph range. I don't think anyone can eyeball a 1-2 mph difference. But if you have a coach/instructor saying your P is off a couple MPH, don't try to take it too literally. Focus on the issue/fix instead.
As far as reading velo in general, we play that game often. I can usually come within a few MPH. A particularly short or long distance from the plate to the backstop fence/bleacher area can trip me up more than anything.
Your comments about field dimension differences factoring into things is an interesting one. Son played at PG his freshman spring and hit 75. Went to an area school to play JV game later that same year. Their field was cool due to various little quirks in its layout. It looked like my son was throwing gas that day. Other kids from varsity sitting in the stands mentioned it too. But in reality, everyone throwing there that day looked like they had a little more on their fastball. I chalk it up to some sort of illusion.
On another note (more in keeping with the OP), I saw a kid at PG 16U last week who looked to be really bringing it. Looked at the scoreboard and he was under 80. Another kid whom I thought was humming it was 75 and below. Another kid that I thought was 78-79 was 81 and 82. Go figure.
Note, also, that velocity can fluctuate quite a bit. It's not that uncommon to see a kid throwing 90 one outing and come back a week later only topping 86/87, only to return to 90 the next week. There are cycles, I believe, just like with weightlifting.
roothog66 posted:Note, also, that velocity can fluctuate quite a bit. It's not that uncommon to see a kid throwing 90 one outing and come back a week later only topping 86/87, only to return to 90 the next week. There are cycles, I believe, just like with weightlifting.
My son talks about ^^^ "cycles". So far it seems tough to predict. He says calls it "IT", as I had IT today, I didn't have "IT" today. He is talking about the liveliness of his arm. Sometimes he can not pitch for a week or two, and have IT, or not have IT. IT is about 3 miles an hour. He doesn't need to know his velocity to know if he had IT. He will just say it when we get in the truck.
He can pitch well without IT, and IT isn't command, or a mental zone or anything. It's purely physical.
BTW, on the "eye" test, I can't tell 3/4 mph difference in pitchers. Sometimes I'm fooled by where I am standing/distance from the plate.
I used a gun for many years, and I never ran across anyone that could guess a pitcher's speed.
There's a big difference between recognizing velocity changes in a pitcher you're familiar with and guessing the velocity of a random guy you've never seen before. I can normally see a relatively small change in my son's velo, and though I'm decent at guessing the velo of random pitchers, there are plenty who are way off what I'd guess they're throwing.
Interestingly, my son is pretty good at eyeballing velocity on other pitchers, but most of his teammates aren't, maybe especially so the hitters. He thinks it's from years of coaches inflating velocities around these guys in HS, when he spent more time paying attention to PG velocities and what we'd measure with a gun at various games.
My son hadn't thrown in a game for about 10 days before his start this past Saturday. He's normally 88-90 on his FB. Saturday he was 87-89 in the first.....and 81-84 in the 6th (after 70 pitches). I was shocked. He only gave up 2 hits and was just as effective in the 6th as the first. I have always thought I had a pretty good feel for his velo...even from the stands, but had no idea he had dropped off that much in this outing.
To notice a three, four mph difference in a pitcher the person needs to be very familiar with him. I can usually tell if a pitcher is generally throwing upper 80s or low 80s. But I can't notice a change unless it's one of my pitchers (when I coached).
I've run into a few scouts and coaches who can eyeball velocity pretty good. I just happen to be one of those who isn't good at it, and most people are like that, I think.
Well. Pretty well.
I'm surprised to hear so many comments about not being able to tell. I hear the "what do you think he's throwing" game played all the time. This usually happens during first inning warm-ups or when a reliever comes in. Of course, just about every college game has players manning guns and a few HS fields in our neck have the clock displayed, so the guessing can be verified. Most coaches and players I hear throwing out numbers come pretty darn close. I agree there are plenty of exceptions that fool the eye.