Don't know if your comment is directed at me or not but this is my opinion. Running when you're down is not the point. If a team is down a run or two, running can make lots of sense. No one has stated that you don't run when you're down. How stupid would he look if he had been thrown out when down seven runs when by his statements its obvious his running was a personal thing only. You make him out to be some kind of smart player when the dummy was thrown out before trying to bash a catcher instead of scoring the lead run. I bet if you were a manager of any age group and one of your players was thrown out stealing when you're down seven, eight , or nine runs you wouldn't be too happy about it. One of the stories about Jeter in his early days as a Yankee concerns this very thing as he was thrown out stealing third with a THREE run deficit and he was at least mature enough to go sit next to Joe Torre and face the music. Maybe running in these situations and defending it is why Washington is and has been a losing club. It apparently isn't in the Yankee game plan and was considered just as idiotic then under the circumstances. I liken this to the NBA style of play. Do whatever is showy and self serving, don't let anyone diss you or you got to man up, never mind about actually what's best for the team. I also don't believe anyone said anything about playing station to station. In those circumstances you still play aggressive just not stupid.
He wasn't thrown out so how is it stupid?
My players can run whenever they want because they've been taught their reads. There are certain situations where they can only run if they are 100%. Meaning, if you get thrown out, you're gonna hear it from me.
I don't think Morgan is smart at all. I think he's a horse's a$$. If you can show me where I have said he was smart, then we can talk about that. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure his purpose was to show the other team up. But, to say you should not run when you are down, is flat wrong.
Would you have been happier if he stayed at 1B and on a GB to SS, he planted the 2B in LF?!?
My players can run whenever they want because they've been taught their reads. There are certain situations where they can only run if they are 100%. Meaning, if you get thrown out, you're gonna hear it from me.
I don't think Morgan is smart at all. I think he's a horse's a$$. If you can show me where I have said he was smart, then we can talk about that. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure his purpose was to show the other team up. But, to say you should not run when you are down, is flat wrong.
Would you have been happier if he stayed at 1B and on a GB to SS, he planted the 2B in LF?!?
If he runs and is thrown out that's a Nat's issue, not a Florida issue. As Riggleman said, you get "one throw" at him.
I don't think this was about stealing bases whether you were up or down.
Morgan is a case lately of I will do what I want. He doesn't think and then comes up with excuses.
Although Riggleman stood up for him stealing the bases, that's not JR's style (they call him Riggie). When you play for a manager, any manager, you always keep in mind what the manager may have on his mind also. You show respect, for him as well as everyone else.
He's not smart (we all know that), after taking out a Cardinal catcher the week before (where Riggleman was completely embarrassed) he does the same thing a week later and dislocates a catchers shoulder. Yeah, he got plunked and took his base, but he should have just ended it there. He stole the bases to show up the Marlins, not because he cared about his team winning or losing. He was angry because he got plunk, but he deserved it.
The sad part in all of this is that there are plenty of guys sitting in the wings who will play and act as professionals and follow those "unwritten rules", be respectful of their managers and teammates and the game.
http://www.sportingnews.com/ml...ationalsnyjer-morgan
Morgan is a case lately of I will do what I want. He doesn't think and then comes up with excuses.
Although Riggleman stood up for him stealing the bases, that's not JR's style (they call him Riggie). When you play for a manager, any manager, you always keep in mind what the manager may have on his mind also. You show respect, for him as well as everyone else.
He's not smart (we all know that), after taking out a Cardinal catcher the week before (where Riggleman was completely embarrassed) he does the same thing a week later and dislocates a catchers shoulder. Yeah, he got plunked and took his base, but he should have just ended it there. He stole the bases to show up the Marlins, not because he cared about his team winning or losing. He was angry because he got plunk, but he deserved it.
The sad part in all of this is that there are plenty of guys sitting in the wings who will play and act as professionals and follow those "unwritten rules", be respectful of their managers and teammates and the game.
http://www.sportingnews.com/ml...ationalsnyjer-morgan
Redbird5,
Actually I think we agree on most things about this situation, but disagree whether running here was the thing to do. Remember, I didn't say not to run when you're down, only when you're down a lot of runs. There is a difference. Anyway, if a guy tried to plant me in left field on a steal , he would be looking for his teeth after the tag I guarantee you. As I said, this has nothing to do with all that unwritten rules nonsence, but my feeling that it is not statistically condusive to winning that particular game. I truthfully have no problems with stealing when I'm seven ahead early in a game. My point is that, he is not a particularily good stealer with a 60 something stolen base percentage so I don't feel the risk was worth the gain.
Actually I think we agree on most things about this situation, but disagree whether running here was the thing to do. Remember, I didn't say not to run when you're down, only when you're down a lot of runs. There is a difference. Anyway, if a guy tried to plant me in left field on a steal , he would be looking for his teeth after the tag I guarantee you. As I said, this has nothing to do with all that unwritten rules nonsence, but my feeling that it is not statistically condusive to winning that particular game. I truthfully have no problems with stealing when I'm seven ahead early in a game. My point is that, he is not a particularily good stealer with a 60 something stolen base percentage so I don't feel the risk was worth the gain.
Would it have been sound baseball if Nyger had been thrown out stealing? If not, how can the decision to steal be defended when down by what, 11 runs?
Or are we saying that stealing in this situation is a sound strategy?
Just curious...sounds like some approve.
Or are we saying that stealing in this situation is a sound strategy?
Just curious...sounds like some approve.
quote:Originally posted by Three Bagger:
Redbird5,
Actually I think we agree on most things about this situation, but disagree whether running here was the thing to do. Remember, I didn't say not to run when you're down, only when you're down a lot of runs. There is a difference. Anyway, if a guy tried to plant me in left field on a steal , he would be looking for his teeth after the tag I guarantee you. As I said, this has nothing to do with all that unwritten rules nonsence, but my feeling that it is not statistically condusive to winning that particular game. I truthfully have no problems with stealing when I'm seven ahead early in a game. My point is that, he is not a particularily good stealer with a 60 something stolen base percentage so I don't feel the risk was worth the gain.
I still don't get the logic. What is the definition of "lot of runs"? And how do you come back after being down 11 runs if you stop trying? I wonder what Yogi would say.
I think we're all fairly close in saying the same thing but don't relize that this all falls into two categories.
First issue - Morgan can never be defended in what he did. Everything he did was for the wrong reasons and he needs to be criticized.
Second issue - When do you stop stealing bases when you are down?
Simply put I don't care what Morgan did - he was wrong and he did it for the wrong reasons. But stealing when down isn't necessarily a bad thing.
If you are a 60% basestealer does your percentage become worse just because you're down several runs? No you are still a 60% base stealer regardless of the point or score of the game. You got to take many things into consideration if you give the steal sign or give someone the green light but I can't see just putting the brakes on completely making sense. You're already down so why make matters worse by just shutting everything down and hope to string several basehits together or a long ball? You don't wait for things to happen - you make them happen by choosing the the right people to do it. Don't give you 6'5" 240 LB firstbaseman the steal sign because that is not good strategy but let that 6'1" 180 LB centerfielder who can fly steal. I don't think anyone here advocates recklessness but you can't just shut down.
As for the unwritten rules - Florida got their payback when they hit him. They have no right or reason to expect the Nationals to stop. Morgan did something stupid and he got hit by the pitch - they are now even and Florida cannot dictate anything to Washington. If Florida gets upset that Morgan stole two bases then hit him again and get back to even in their eyes.
Stealing bases while down several runs isn't a bad strategy in of itself nor does it go against the unwritten rules.
First issue - Morgan can never be defended in what he did. Everything he did was for the wrong reasons and he needs to be criticized.
Second issue - When do you stop stealing bases when you are down?
Simply put I don't care what Morgan did - he was wrong and he did it for the wrong reasons. But stealing when down isn't necessarily a bad thing.
If you are a 60% basestealer does your percentage become worse just because you're down several runs? No you are still a 60% base stealer regardless of the point or score of the game. You got to take many things into consideration if you give the steal sign or give someone the green light but I can't see just putting the brakes on completely making sense. You're already down so why make matters worse by just shutting everything down and hope to string several basehits together or a long ball? You don't wait for things to happen - you make them happen by choosing the the right people to do it. Don't give you 6'5" 240 LB firstbaseman the steal sign because that is not good strategy but let that 6'1" 180 LB centerfielder who can fly steal. I don't think anyone here advocates recklessness but you can't just shut down.
As for the unwritten rules - Florida got their payback when they hit him. They have no right or reason to expect the Nationals to stop. Morgan did something stupid and he got hit by the pitch - they are now even and Florida cannot dictate anything to Washington. If Florida gets upset that Morgan stole two bases then hit him again and get back to even in their eyes.
Stealing bases while down several runs isn't a bad strategy in of itself nor does it go against the unwritten rules.
A 60% runner actually becomes a better runner since the P and 1B have no intention of picking off. We will run in every opportunity.
coach, that's my point. A 60% basestealer is a poor percentage base stealer. He might have speed but it doesn't play. According to Bill James and other stat guys, it you don't steal at a 70% rate or better, you actually cost your team runs. My point is that if he tried that same thing over and over, he would have been thrown out 4 out of each ten times he tried to steal one base, let alone two. I know coaches tend to say throw statistical probability out, but when its been proven over thousands of times and and now the numbers that show it to be a losing play in the long run are there for everyone to see, I feel it is a poor play when you are down by more than five or six runs.
Yall keep arguing that you just can't just shut down but who has said that during this disagreement. Basestealing is just one small facet of offensive baseball and if yall think stealing third with an eleven run(I went back and checked) deficit is a good play then I won't even continue this argument.
Snowman,
Yogi would probably say that "Hey we had the fastest runner in baseball--the Mick-- on my team and he didn't steal in double figures in his first six seasons and only six times in all because we were about winning and didn't try to run into outs when steals were'nt called for."
Yall keep arguing that you just can't just shut down but who has said that during this disagreement. Basestealing is just one small facet of offensive baseball and if yall think stealing third with an eleven run(I went back and checked) deficit is a good play then I won't even continue this argument.
Snowman,
Yogi would probably say that "Hey we had the fastest runner in baseball--the Mick-- on my team and he didn't steal in double figures in his first six seasons and only six times in all because we were about winning and didn't try to run into outs when steals were'nt called for."
redbird5, Now you're talking fielders indifference and no steal is awarded in the first place. Since the Marlins got so excited about it, I assume they did hold him on if only halfheartedly. Sure if they give you the base by not holding you on--take it, but then you don't get a steal. I just happen to think that with eleven runs behind, the percentage that you contribute toward winning by stealing one or two bases is less than what you cost in an irreplacible out if you are caught. And according to his own stats he would have been caught 4 out of 10 times that he tries this.
I'll just say this, if I'm coaching against you and you want to steal third several times when I have an eleven run lead, well knock yourself out. If I nail you just one time it will be worth it because your one base means far less than my one out gained.
I'll just say this, if I'm coaching against you and you want to steal third several times when I have an eleven run lead, well knock yourself out. If I nail you just one time it will be worth it because your one base means far less than my one out gained.
By the way coach2709, snowman, and redbird5 I want yall to know I respect your opinions on this subject and I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I hope I'm not coming across as sounding like this is personal just because we disagree. I don't mean it that way at all. This is one of the great things about baseball in that there's more than one way to skin a cat and I actually enjoy the give and take.
Three Bagger I understand where you're coming from but I don't see 60% as being a poor percentage. When it comes to offense in baseball anything over 50% is good no matter what it is. It's hard to score. No offense but Bill James is not going to dictate how I run my team or develop my philosophy. There is a ton of truth to the stats he puts up there but he doesn't factor in team make up nor point in the game. Not using Morgan but a 60% basestealer is determined throughout ALL chances he attempts but not in typical situations (im sure someone keeps them but for this case the 60% does not represent the % for large leads). This is where what Redbird said comes in - with a large lead the defensive team is probably not going to hold the runner as close due to the fact they want to get outs to speed the game up. So the probability is that you have an increased chance to be successful in stealing the base in this situation.
This is important because now you stay out of the double play and can score on a basehit.
As for stealing third - overall baseball wise it's not the best strategy but sometimes you have to. You're struggling to score runs so take a chance to get the defense moving and something may happen. Plus by stealing third with less than two outs the defense is probably going to first on all ground balls to get the outs and now the run should be able to score.
Team make up is huge - if you got a bunch of speedy guys and get behind like this and play the percentages then you might as well end the game and head to clubhouse. You're done because you will not be able to bang out a long enough string of hits to get back in it and it's obvious you don't have the power to make up deficits with a swing of the bat. You have to take chances. If you have a team full of power guys then yes you do put the brakes on because the speed probably isn't there and you can make up deficits with one swing.
Stats are huge and important but if you play an entire season by going with the book using the stats you are probably going to be a .500 team and I doubt you get into the playoffs. You won't be a good team.
This is important because now you stay out of the double play and can score on a basehit.
As for stealing third - overall baseball wise it's not the best strategy but sometimes you have to. You're struggling to score runs so take a chance to get the defense moving and something may happen. Plus by stealing third with less than two outs the defense is probably going to first on all ground balls to get the outs and now the run should be able to score.
Team make up is huge - if you got a bunch of speedy guys and get behind like this and play the percentages then you might as well end the game and head to clubhouse. You're done because you will not be able to bang out a long enough string of hits to get back in it and it's obvious you don't have the power to make up deficits with a swing of the bat. You have to take chances. If you have a team full of power guys then yes you do put the brakes on because the speed probably isn't there and you can make up deficits with one swing.
Stats are huge and important but if you play an entire season by going with the book using the stats you are probably going to be a .500 team and I doubt you get into the playoffs. You won't be a good team.
quote:Originally posted by Three Bagger:
By the way coach2709, snowman, and redbird5 I want yall to know I respect your opinions on this subject and I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I hope I'm not coming across as sounding like this is personal just because we disagree. I don't mean it that way at all. This is one of the great things about baseball in that there's more than one way to skin a cat and I actually enjoy the give and take.
It's all good and no harm no foul. I'm enjoying the discussion as well. I know we're not going to get you to change your mind just like you're not going to change ours but what I hope is that there is a young guy out there who wants to be a coach who reads this. Somehow someway this young guy gets something out of this discussion that helps him develop his own identity as a coach for his team to be successful. That's what I hope.
Coach2709,
The ironic thing about this whole discussion is that if anyone's read previous posts by me they know that I've got two boys who I have mentioned have above average speed with the older having exceptional speed and I've lived and died by the steal many times with them and other speedsters I've had. I still feel you aren't going to win a game you trail by eleven runs unless you do string a bunch of hits together. An extra base by someone already on isn't going to change the fact that you still trail by eleven. Morgan was safe this timeand he might score or he might not by stealing 3rd in this situation. But he certainly won't score if he gets thrown out and he does get thrown out overall 35 or 40 percent of the time. Stealing second to avoid the DP has some merit maybe but third when your're down by eleven, I just can't buy it. Even if he scores, you're down by ten and the only thing that will save you is string a lot of something together and just one guy being thrown out when he's already is scoring position is disasterous.
The ironic thing about this whole discussion is that if anyone's read previous posts by me they know that I've got two boys who I have mentioned have above average speed with the older having exceptional speed and I've lived and died by the steal many times with them and other speedsters I've had. I still feel you aren't going to win a game you trail by eleven runs unless you do string a bunch of hits together. An extra base by someone already on isn't going to change the fact that you still trail by eleven. Morgan was safe this timeand he might score or he might not by stealing 3rd in this situation. But he certainly won't score if he gets thrown out and he does get thrown out overall 35 or 40 percent of the time. Stealing second to avoid the DP has some merit maybe but third when your're down by eleven, I just can't buy it. Even if he scores, you're down by ten and the only thing that will save you is string a lot of something together and just one guy being thrown out when he's already is scoring position is disasterous.
I think the big key was intent.
There is no problem with being aggressive on the basepaths. Jackie Robinson made it into the Hall of Fame because of it. If Nyger Morgan was doing what he was doing because he was honestly trying to help his team then I don't think there would have been anything said.
But it was obvious that he wasn't doing what he did to help his team. He did it to thumb his nose at the opposition and that was simply wrong. There were plenty of reasons for Morgan to get plunked when he did. He didn't get hit in the head and there was no attempt to seriously injure the guy. Instead of taking it like a man he acted like a child on the field. He decided to show up another team on the field, something you don't do, at least something you don't do unless you want some retaliation again later in the same series.
I don't think this kid will be around in baseball much longer. He is like kryptonite now, no one is going to be interested in him.
As for the Ty Cobb comparisons, Ty Cobb would have been thrown out of baseball if he tried to pull some of the stunts he did back then now. Ty Cobb went out and intentionally tried to hurt people in the game. He slid spikes up (it was told that he sharpened them so he could cause more damage) and ended several careers during his span. He once went after a groundskeeper because of the field condition and then attacked his wife. He supposedly kicked a woman for admonishing him for using the N word. He was a violent, unstable man that would have been an embarrasment to anything close to a modern team so using him as an example is a bad move.
There is no problem with being aggressive on the basepaths. Jackie Robinson made it into the Hall of Fame because of it. If Nyger Morgan was doing what he was doing because he was honestly trying to help his team then I don't think there would have been anything said.
But it was obvious that he wasn't doing what he did to help his team. He did it to thumb his nose at the opposition and that was simply wrong. There were plenty of reasons for Morgan to get plunked when he did. He didn't get hit in the head and there was no attempt to seriously injure the guy. Instead of taking it like a man he acted like a child on the field. He decided to show up another team on the field, something you don't do, at least something you don't do unless you want some retaliation again later in the same series.
I don't think this kid will be around in baseball much longer. He is like kryptonite now, no one is going to be interested in him.
As for the Ty Cobb comparisons, Ty Cobb would have been thrown out of baseball if he tried to pull some of the stunts he did back then now. Ty Cobb went out and intentionally tried to hurt people in the game. He slid spikes up (it was told that he sharpened them so he could cause more damage) and ended several careers during his span. He once went after a groundskeeper because of the field condition and then attacked his wife. He supposedly kicked a woman for admonishing him for using the N word. He was a violent, unstable man that would have been an embarrasment to anything close to a modern team so using him as an example is a bad move.
wklink,
You forgot the one armed fan he attacked.
You forgot the one armed fan he attacked.
Ty Cobb was a racist, arrogant, ill tempered, law breaking, flaming idiot whose election to the Hall of Fame proves that character and professionalism on and off the field has no bearing on worthiness for the HOF. As long as Ty Cobb remains in the Hall, anyone and I mean anyone with the statistics to make it, should. And Cobb is not the only poster child for the Hall that fails the character litmus test. But like Morgan, Cobb made the game interesting by adding a little NHL style attitude to an otherwise boring gentleman's game. After all aren't we to be entertained? Gentlemen, steal 'em if you got 'em.
Just to add yet another opinion, here's my .02 cents worth.
Back in coaching days, our college set the small college record two consecutive years for stolen bases. Never would we attempt a stolen base down that far in a game. Runners with green light had it taken off. That is simply creating an opportunity for a free out with nearly no gain.
Not sure what stats have to do with that decision to steal, but it is just a poor percentage play and not worth the risk. I have to agree with Three Bagger, in that situation, if I have one runner thrown out in 20 attempts, it would be hard to stomach.
That said, IMO if the other team does it in that situation, I'm not sure it should bother anyone. However, if a team is "ahead" by 11 runs and is stealing bases, that just isn't right.
Back in coaching days, our college set the small college record two consecutive years for stolen bases. Never would we attempt a stolen base down that far in a game. Runners with green light had it taken off. That is simply creating an opportunity for a free out with nearly no gain.
Not sure what stats have to do with that decision to steal, but it is just a poor percentage play and not worth the risk. I have to agree with Three Bagger, in that situation, if I have one runner thrown out in 20 attempts, it would be hard to stomach.
That said, IMO if the other team does it in that situation, I'm not sure it should bother anyone. However, if a team is "ahead" by 11 runs and is stealing bases, that just isn't right.
PGStaff,
The stats are what makes it a poor percentage play. Stealing third or for that matter second when you are down eleven runs is a poor percentage play. Others on this site might do it over and over but it is still statistically a poor percentage play especially when you are thrown out 35% of the time. Can you sit there and calculate the odds on every play as it happens--no you can't--but some, you just know are disasterous if they fail. I feel this is one of them.
Many people are scared, bored, or in disagreement of the new statistical analysis of baseball decisions that are made after analyzing data from thousands of decisions over the past century and a half. One of these is the utter waste factor of the sacrifice bunt in MOST situations. Someone saying that a 60% stealing success rate isn't that bad tells me all I need to know. Bill James is good enough for the Red Sox but some posters think their gut feelings about such things as "making something happen" is more correct. When you are down eleven, the thing you better make happen is a plethora of hits , walks, extra base hits, and prayer that the other team makes some errors. Stealing third in the hope of cutting down the lead to ten with a 35% chance based on your own past success rate is just asking to kill the mini rally you have.
I'm going to say this one more time: It has been statistically proven if you don't steal at a rate of 70% or better you actually cost your team runs not create runs, courtesy of Bill James. If you believe all the old baseball saws that for years we thought were right, then you tend to do things that will cost your team runs such as steal attempts when you are down eleven runs because its a gut feeling or to "make things happen".
People are just now understanding the concept that outs are the most valuable thing you have and the prevention of outs in statistically non favorable situations is key. Will you succeed sometimes taking ill advised chances? Sure but over the long term just like in Vegas the odds will get you.
The stats are what makes it a poor percentage play. Stealing third or for that matter second when you are down eleven runs is a poor percentage play. Others on this site might do it over and over but it is still statistically a poor percentage play especially when you are thrown out 35% of the time. Can you sit there and calculate the odds on every play as it happens--no you can't--but some, you just know are disasterous if they fail. I feel this is one of them.
Many people are scared, bored, or in disagreement of the new statistical analysis of baseball decisions that are made after analyzing data from thousands of decisions over the past century and a half. One of these is the utter waste factor of the sacrifice bunt in MOST situations. Someone saying that a 60% stealing success rate isn't that bad tells me all I need to know. Bill James is good enough for the Red Sox but some posters think their gut feelings about such things as "making something happen" is more correct. When you are down eleven, the thing you better make happen is a plethora of hits , walks, extra base hits, and prayer that the other team makes some errors. Stealing third in the hope of cutting down the lead to ten with a 35% chance based on your own past success rate is just asking to kill the mini rally you have.
I'm going to say this one more time: It has been statistically proven if you don't steal at a rate of 70% or better you actually cost your team runs not create runs, courtesy of Bill James. If you believe all the old baseball saws that for years we thought were right, then you tend to do things that will cost your team runs such as steal attempts when you are down eleven runs because its a gut feeling or to "make things happen".
People are just now understanding the concept that outs are the most valuable thing you have and the prevention of outs in statistically non favorable situations is key. Will you succeed sometimes taking ill advised chances? Sure but over the long term just like in Vegas the odds will get you.
Personally, I think the Marlins were knuckleheads for not recognizing what Morgan was doing after stealing second and not pitching out as he stole third. If you couldn't see that coming the way he was acting, you need to get your head back in the game.
One thing I will mention again--I don't believe in "unwritten" rules and the stealing doesn't upset me from that aspect.
One thing I will mention again--I don't believe in "unwritten" rules and the stealing doesn't upset me from that aspect.
To me stats do not always pertain to percentage baseball. You can have a 95% success rate stealing bases and the stats will show that. In most stolen base situations you want this guy stealing a base for you. The stats show he will steal the base 19 out of 20 times.
That said, the percentages would be against stealing when behind by 11 runs because getting thrown out once in those 20 attempts is not worth the risk. The stats don't change but that situation causes it to be a bad percentage play IMO.
Just like being behind by two runs or more in the last inning with two outs. You only steal 2B if they are not holding you, if then. I wouldn't take a chance even if they were giving it to me. Could slip or something and get thrown out with the tying run standing in the batters box. You would never steal 3B in that situation.
To me, it is not playing the percentages. Others can decide if it is bush.
Perhaps I'm confusing stats and percentages which could be considered the same thing. I look at the stats as things that have happened and percentages as doing the things that best give you a chance to win.
That said, the percentages would be against stealing when behind by 11 runs because getting thrown out once in those 20 attempts is not worth the risk. The stats don't change but that situation causes it to be a bad percentage play IMO.
Just like being behind by two runs or more in the last inning with two outs. You only steal 2B if they are not holding you, if then. I wouldn't take a chance even if they were giving it to me. Could slip or something and get thrown out with the tying run standing in the batters box. You would never steal 3B in that situation.
To me, it is not playing the percentages. Others can decide if it is bush.
Perhaps I'm confusing stats and percentages which could be considered the same thing. I look at the stats as things that have happened and percentages as doing the things that best give you a chance to win.
Agreed...I thought it was dumb to run in those situations, but not bush. I thought that was the argument
Last inning, you're behind by 2 runs, 2 outs, runner on 1B steals 2B, next pitch he steals 3B.
Is this a good thing because he was successful stealing two bases? Stats will show he was 2 for 2 stolen bases. I'm pretty sure that nearly everyone would consider this kind of stupid. Wouldn't they?
Is this a good thing because he was successful stealing two bases? Stats will show he was 2 for 2 stolen bases. I'm pretty sure that nearly everyone would consider this kind of stupid. Wouldn't they?
Attempting to steal third with two out at any stage in the game is bad baseball.
Being down by 11 and stealing bases is not BUSH but it can be bad baseball
Also as far as bush a lot depends on how you were taught to play the game
Being down by 11 and stealing bases is not BUSH but it can be bad baseball
Also as far as bush a lot depends on how you were taught to play the game
It's only bad baseball if you are thrown out.
Sorry PGStaff about my poor terminology. I believe we're talking about the same thing.
3Bagger,
I know we are.
Baseballdad1228,
Hard to argue your point, but in the situation above, stealing 3B is a bad play no matter how you look at it and no matter what the result is.
We actually had situations where we would try to pick a meaningless runner off 2B and throw the ball away hoping to throw him out trying to advance. (free chance at an out with absolutely no risk) We wanted a chance for an out without even pitching to the tying run. Sure it would take a stupid player, but players can be stupid at times.
Truth is we would rather have the runner that was on 2B on 3B or even scoring than have him remain at 2B. There is no way his run means anything and if he is on the basepath he could possibly get in the way of our shortstop on a ground ball. It was to our advantage to have him out of the way. Yes, very very small advantage, but we would look for every possible advantage that could help us win a game.
So in the situation above, the runner stealing 3B, creates a potential out for us and in fact gave us a slight advantage even if he was safe. Besides, nobody ever does that, do they? That is why we would try to do things, like throw the ball away, just to get them to run?
I know we are.
Baseballdad1228,
quote:Last inning, you're behind by 2 runs, 2 outs, runner on 1B steals 2B, next pitch he steals 3B.
Is this a good thing because he was successful stealing two bases? Stats will show he was 2 for 2 stolen bases. I'm pretty sure that nearly everyone would consider this kind of stupid. Wouldn't they?
Hard to argue your point, but in the situation above, stealing 3B is a bad play no matter how you look at it and no matter what the result is.
We actually had situations where we would try to pick a meaningless runner off 2B and throw the ball away hoping to throw him out trying to advance. (free chance at an out with absolutely no risk) We wanted a chance for an out without even pitching to the tying run. Sure it would take a stupid player, but players can be stupid at times.
Truth is we would rather have the runner that was on 2B on 3B or even scoring than have him remain at 2B. There is no way his run means anything and if he is on the basepath he could possibly get in the way of our shortstop on a ground ball. It was to our advantage to have him out of the way. Yes, very very small advantage, but we would look for every possible advantage that could help us win a game.
So in the situation above, the runner stealing 3B, creates a potential out for us and in fact gave us a slight advantage even if he was safe. Besides, nobody ever does that, do they? That is why we would try to do things, like throw the ball away, just to get them to run?
There's an argument to be made that stealing second actually is a good idea - as long as you're safe - to force left-side infielders to throw the ball across the diamond for the final out.
Sounds like you had some fun trying to decoy runners into a free out, but being safe at third base, under any circumstance, is never a bad thing. It just isn't smart baseball in the above situation.
Sounds like you had some fun trying to decoy runners into a free out, but being safe at third base, under any circumstance, is never a bad thing. It just isn't smart baseball in the above situation.
Baseballdad1228,
Actually in the exact situation outlined above...
If I were the team leading and on defense... I would rather have the runner at 3B than at 2B. There is no advantage to the team hitting and a very slight advantage to the team in the field. That advantage is that the meaningless baserunner is now out of the way of my shortstop. Every advantage, no matter how small, can be important at some point.
Surely everyone has seen the runner making the shortstop misplay a ground ball. If that happened in this situation, it could definitely hurt!
In that same situation. If I had the runner at 2B, I would not consider it an advantage if he were at 3B. The slight advantage is having him at 2B.
This would be the time to use a borderline balk move to pick the runner at 2B. If the balk is called, it's actually a "good" thing.
Actually in the exact situation outlined above...
If I were the team leading and on defense... I would rather have the runner at 3B than at 2B. There is no advantage to the team hitting and a very slight advantage to the team in the field. That advantage is that the meaningless baserunner is now out of the way of my shortstop. Every advantage, no matter how small, can be important at some point.
Surely everyone has seen the runner making the shortstop misplay a ground ball. If that happened in this situation, it could definitely hurt!
In that same situation. If I had the runner at 2B, I would not consider it an advantage if he were at 3B. The slight advantage is having him at 2B.
This would be the time to use a borderline balk move to pick the runner at 2B. If the balk is called, it's actually a "good" thing.
PG - you've got the pass ball situation with the runner on third. If your guy on the mound is a big breaking ball guy, known for throwing them in the dirt on occasion, do you still want that guy standing on third?
Interesting discussions on strategy in this thread.
Interesting discussions on strategy in this thread.
CD,
Maybe some would not understand or agree, but if I had the 2 run lead... I would rather have that runner score and be in the dugout than be at 2B in that exact situation.
In that situation, the run is absolutely meaningless. It could affect statistics, but winning is more important.
We even had a play with a runner at 3B in the situation above. Catcher would over throw 3B on pickoff attempt and throw the ball to our LF in hopes that the runner might break for the plate.
We actually ended a game with the tying run at bat and a runner at 1B. We played the 1B behind the runner as if we were giving him 2B in order to make him comfortable with a nice lead. (there is an advantage to the runner who can get to 2B on a ground ball) We used a called play where the pitcher never looked at the runner and the catcher (with everything in front of him) would time the pickoff. As soon as he saw our firstbaseman move to the bag he popped open his right hand (signal we used) and the pitcher picked immediately. End of game, the runner was frozen and nearly fell down as the game ended with the tying run standing in the box.
Note: This was a play we used quite a bit. Especially when we noticed a first base coach not doing his job keeping close track of our first baseman.
Anyway, back to the pitcher and potential pass ball or wild pitch. The job is to get the hitter out or don't give up an extra base hit. (keep hitter off 2B)
There is absolutely no advantage to the hitting team if the runner is on 3B or even scores. There is the very slight advantage that he could cause a misplay if he is on 2B.
Maybe some would not understand or agree, but if I had the 2 run lead... I would rather have that runner score and be in the dugout than be at 2B in that exact situation.
In that situation, the run is absolutely meaningless. It could affect statistics, but winning is more important.
We even had a play with a runner at 3B in the situation above. Catcher would over throw 3B on pickoff attempt and throw the ball to our LF in hopes that the runner might break for the plate.
We actually ended a game with the tying run at bat and a runner at 1B. We played the 1B behind the runner as if we were giving him 2B in order to make him comfortable with a nice lead. (there is an advantage to the runner who can get to 2B on a ground ball) We used a called play where the pitcher never looked at the runner and the catcher (with everything in front of him) would time the pickoff. As soon as he saw our firstbaseman move to the bag he popped open his right hand (signal we used) and the pitcher picked immediately. End of game, the runner was frozen and nearly fell down as the game ended with the tying run standing in the box.
Note: This was a play we used quite a bit. Especially when we noticed a first base coach not doing his job keeping close track of our first baseman.
Anyway, back to the pitcher and potential pass ball or wild pitch. The job is to get the hitter out or don't give up an extra base hit. (keep hitter off 2B)
There is absolutely no advantage to the hitting team if the runner is on 3B or even scores. There is the very slight advantage that he could cause a misplay if he is on 2B.
Sorry - lost track in the thread. Didn't realize we were talking about a greater than one run lead.
I have enjoyed the strategy discussions nonetheless.
PG - do some of your pickoff plays work at the college or pro levels or they more designed for the high school level on down?
I have enjoyed the strategy discussions nonetheless.
PG - do some of your pickoff plays work at the college or pro levels or they more designed for the high school level on down?
We did everything at the college level. Small college, but we won games against some DI teams.
You don't see this stuff as much at a higher level, but I'm sure it would still work there.
I think it is because if you have the most talent... the best pitchers... the best hitters... the best of everything... You just try to get the best lineup on the field. You don't spend every waking moment trying to figure out how you're going to win the game!
I always wanted every possible advantage, no matter how small of an advantage it might be. All those small advantages add up to something very positive and would help win lots of games.
We used squeeze plays quite a bit, both safety and suicide. For many years you would hardly ever see that done at the highest level (MLB). However, if you notice, squeeze plays are happening more often in MLB these days.
BTW, I enjoy talking about this kind of stuff, too! Wish I had more time to do so.
You don't see this stuff as much at a higher level, but I'm sure it would still work there.
I think it is because if you have the most talent... the best pitchers... the best hitters... the best of everything... You just try to get the best lineup on the field. You don't spend every waking moment trying to figure out how you're going to win the game!
I always wanted every possible advantage, no matter how small of an advantage it might be. All those small advantages add up to something very positive and would help win lots of games.
We used squeeze plays quite a bit, both safety and suicide. For many years you would hardly ever see that done at the highest level (MLB). However, if you notice, squeeze plays are happening more often in MLB these days.
BTW, I enjoy talking about this kind of stuff, too! Wish I had more time to do so.
PGStaff,
I love the squeeze play also. Ala Earl Weaver, I don't go to much for regular Sac bunts except on rare occasions. But my favorite play of all is the straight steal of home. When Ellersby of Boston did it on a nationally televised game against the Yankees a couple of years ago, it was worth it just to see the look of shock on Pettitte's face. It was priceless. I taught both my sons how to do it from age 13 and up and they both pulled it off multiple times. I had some experience doing it myself as a young player.
I love the squeeze play also. Ala Earl Weaver, I don't go to much for regular Sac bunts except on rare occasions. But my favorite play of all is the straight steal of home. When Ellersby of Boston did it on a nationally televised game against the Yankees a couple of years ago, it was worth it just to see the look of shock on Pettitte's face. It was priceless. I taught both my sons how to do it from age 13 and up and they both pulled it off multiple times. I had some experience doing it myself as a young player.
Three Bagger,
Talking about squeeze plays….
Here is something we used to do periodically, when the situation was right. Especially if the pitcher was in the windup.
Bases Loaded
Less than 2 outs
3-1 or Full Count on the hitter
Runner on 3B would break to the plate as early as safely possible… Earlier than normal squeeze.
Hitter would square around early… Earlier than usual squeeze.
This usually caused opposition to yell… Squeeze!
If pitcher throws any pitch that could be called a strike… Our hitter bunts!
If the pitcher throws any pitch that can’t be called a strike… Our hitter takes the walk and we score the run.
We did this about a half dozen times in my coaching career. We screwed it up once when our hitter had a brain cramp and tried to bunt a pitch in the dirt. It worked all the other times. Two times it was serious game changing stuff.
Once when the opposing pitcher heard everyone yelling and realizing the squeeze was on, he pitched out. Ball 4, we scored and still had the bases loaded. That pitcher then gave up a hit and two more walks before they took him out.
Another time, this play caused the pitcher to balk.
Obviously this is not a play that you would use with one of your best hitters or most undisciplined players at the plate. But the percentage of success is very high. This is due to several things that happen…
First off, your hitter does not have to chase and make contact on any pitch, he only has to bunt anything that could be called a strike which is something most any player should be able to do. Plus you are almost certain of getting a fastball in that situation. It puts extreme pressure on the pitcher to process the play as it happens and throw a strike. The early break from 3B by the runner (we actually wanted to give away the squeeze attempt earlier than normal) causes no play on almost anything that is bunted (even bunted hard right back at the pitcher).
There are more things involved in realizing the situation is right, but if you know your players and trust them to execute correctly, this play will work nearly all the time. You do jeopardize the chance of having a big inning, but we have found it can also help create a big inning. It’s a hard play for the pitcher and opponents to recover from quickly. Not for everyone, it can look real bad when it doesn’t work. You have to be willing to look like an idiot and at the same time know that you’re not.
There’s a time and place for everything, including straight steal of home. We set all time college records for stealing bases, but only once, maybe twice, can I remember a straight steal of home. Many on the back end of double steals though.
I do love the running game, that’s for sure! Not only can it create things, it’s just not a lot of fun to play against. Most importantly, I think it causes players to have more fun and to be more aggressive and alert. For us it produced a lot of success.
One year we were more of a power team. We still ran a lot, but basically depended on hitting doubles and homeruns to win games and they won lots of games. To be honest, that wasn’t nearly as much fun. Guess you just do what your talent dictates!
One year we had two pitchers on our staff that ended up pitching in the Big Leagues. Also on that team we had a centerfielder who made it to AAA and a catcher who played in the minor leagues. That was yet a different style of team, yet they won big.
But the most fun was when we broke the all time SB record for small college ball. Our CF that year stole 100 bases in 109 attempts (think its been broken by now). 8 of those CS were when he was picked off. He was a little guy who hit .400 that year by just making contact. At a MLB tryout at Busch Stadium he ran a 6.2 60. No one signed him because he just couldn’t hit! He was so quick to 2B, that we never timed a pitcher/catcher time that had a chance even with perfect execution. The one time he was thrown out he slipped. That was quite a weapon! I was a little surprised that no one signed him.
It's obvious there are a lot of real good baseball people on this site, so it is fun to talk about this kind of stuff here. Even when disagreeing with someone, please understand that it is with total respect. I lay no claims to being some kind of an expert. Still learning here!
Talking about squeeze plays….
Here is something we used to do periodically, when the situation was right. Especially if the pitcher was in the windup.
Bases Loaded
Less than 2 outs
3-1 or Full Count on the hitter
Runner on 3B would break to the plate as early as safely possible… Earlier than normal squeeze.
Hitter would square around early… Earlier than usual squeeze.
This usually caused opposition to yell… Squeeze!
If pitcher throws any pitch that could be called a strike… Our hitter bunts!
If the pitcher throws any pitch that can’t be called a strike… Our hitter takes the walk and we score the run.
We did this about a half dozen times in my coaching career. We screwed it up once when our hitter had a brain cramp and tried to bunt a pitch in the dirt. It worked all the other times. Two times it was serious game changing stuff.
Once when the opposing pitcher heard everyone yelling and realizing the squeeze was on, he pitched out. Ball 4, we scored and still had the bases loaded. That pitcher then gave up a hit and two more walks before they took him out.
Another time, this play caused the pitcher to balk.
Obviously this is not a play that you would use with one of your best hitters or most undisciplined players at the plate. But the percentage of success is very high. This is due to several things that happen…
First off, your hitter does not have to chase and make contact on any pitch, he only has to bunt anything that could be called a strike which is something most any player should be able to do. Plus you are almost certain of getting a fastball in that situation. It puts extreme pressure on the pitcher to process the play as it happens and throw a strike. The early break from 3B by the runner (we actually wanted to give away the squeeze attempt earlier than normal) causes no play on almost anything that is bunted (even bunted hard right back at the pitcher).
There are more things involved in realizing the situation is right, but if you know your players and trust them to execute correctly, this play will work nearly all the time. You do jeopardize the chance of having a big inning, but we have found it can also help create a big inning. It’s a hard play for the pitcher and opponents to recover from quickly. Not for everyone, it can look real bad when it doesn’t work. You have to be willing to look like an idiot and at the same time know that you’re not.
There’s a time and place for everything, including straight steal of home. We set all time college records for stealing bases, but only once, maybe twice, can I remember a straight steal of home. Many on the back end of double steals though.
I do love the running game, that’s for sure! Not only can it create things, it’s just not a lot of fun to play against. Most importantly, I think it causes players to have more fun and to be more aggressive and alert. For us it produced a lot of success.
One year we were more of a power team. We still ran a lot, but basically depended on hitting doubles and homeruns to win games and they won lots of games. To be honest, that wasn’t nearly as much fun. Guess you just do what your talent dictates!
One year we had two pitchers on our staff that ended up pitching in the Big Leagues. Also on that team we had a centerfielder who made it to AAA and a catcher who played in the minor leagues. That was yet a different style of team, yet they won big.
But the most fun was when we broke the all time SB record for small college ball. Our CF that year stole 100 bases in 109 attempts (think its been broken by now). 8 of those CS were when he was picked off. He was a little guy who hit .400 that year by just making contact. At a MLB tryout at Busch Stadium he ran a 6.2 60. No one signed him because he just couldn’t hit! He was so quick to 2B, that we never timed a pitcher/catcher time that had a chance even with perfect execution. The one time he was thrown out he slipped. That was quite a weapon! I was a little surprised that no one signed him.
It's obvious there are a lot of real good baseball people on this site, so it is fun to talk about this kind of stuff here. Even when disagreeing with someone, please understand that it is with total respect. I lay no claims to being some kind of an expert. Still learning here!
PGStaff,
Great stuff! I love seeing well thought out plays like you describe on the squeeze your team used. Success on that play is a shock to the other team and you know they're often still thinking about it for a hitter or two especially with younger players. Very interesting to me especially was the story about the 6.2 speedster you had. I was very worried at first as my sons played higher level baseball that they would rely on sheer speed for hits as you can in lower level or younger age ball. No Willie Tavaras slap hitters for me! Luckily more power came and more of the hits became a product of squaring up the ball. Older son says that in college, on balls that he beat out every time in high school, he's often out bang-bang in college. Anyway, it seems that you're a lot like Bobby Cox in that you could win with different kinds of teams and that's often a rare talent.
Great stuff! I love seeing well thought out plays like you describe on the squeeze your team used. Success on that play is a shock to the other team and you know they're often still thinking about it for a hitter or two especially with younger players. Very interesting to me especially was the story about the 6.2 speedster you had. I was very worried at first as my sons played higher level baseball that they would rely on sheer speed for hits as you can in lower level or younger age ball. No Willie Tavaras slap hitters for me! Luckily more power came and more of the hits became a product of squaring up the ball. Older son says that in college, on balls that he beat out every time in high school, he's often out bang-bang in college. Anyway, it seems that you're a lot like Bobby Cox in that you could win with different kinds of teams and that's often a rare talent.