Opinion: IF you think your child will eventually sign with MLB......

Mangum had been drafted the previous two years as a 29th and 32nd round pick. He would have received a bus ticket for a signing bonus. The Mets drafted him for the purpose of signing him under slot. This was the most money Mangum was ever going to be offered in any year. 

But in normal situations it’s typically better to sign junior year and not lose your negotiating leverage.

The Mets strategy worked. Mangum was just a pawn in the game. It‘s how he went from a 29th rounder to 4th rounder.

https://nypost.com/2019/06/26/...utm_source=flipboard

Mangum is the SEC all time hits leader. Every scouting report I've read says good defender with above average speed. He's been hitting the best amateur pitching in the country for 4 years and killing it even if the power numbers aren't there. 

So I'm curious, why was he drafted so late as a soph and junior? Signability issues or what? 4th round sounds about right given his track record, but he was just as good last year. 

You may have expressed the only opinion on this forum that no one disagrees with. 

Magnum is an exceptional college player, which doesn't necessarily translate to being MLB talent.  Perhaps that's the book on him.  Plus, contact hitters are not in vogue in today's MLB.

I would assume he wasn't drafted higher because he doesn't have power and doesn't project for much more growth. Also he is probably a good college CF but projects more for a corner. 

Really not many mlb centerfielders or shortstops are college guys, most college up the middle players tend to move away from there because the elite athletes are HS or international guys.

So if it is corner guy who can fill in at center with good hit tool but only prospects for 8 homers it is more a 4th or 5th outfielder profile and only if he really becomes at least a 60 to 65 grade hitter.

Now there is always a chance that someone adds power but most of those guys were either very young and frail or they always hit the ball hard but hammered everything into the ground. He probably has neither the current raw pop nor enough physical projectability.

Still some of those guys do make it because they never stop hitting and maybe add at least minimal power. Maybe he is the next jeff McNeil. But most don't turn out that way.

A 4th round pick isn't chopped liver - senior or not. 

Here's basically how college seniors work in the draft:

• tippy top (who had relatively consistent careers topped with a fantastic senior year) go top 4ish or better (with significant slot discounts) (i.e., a well developed "resume"),

• next level top 10 rounds (guys who had consistent careers with a good senior year [often the workhorses of their program senior year] OR guys who had fantastic senior years (would have been drafted single digit had that year been a year earlier) (significant slot discounts) (i.e., a good resume OR an off the chart senior year),

• lower rounds (good careers - often slowed by injury) (no bonus), and finally

• free agent signings (based upon an area scout having gotten to know the player and seeing "something").

Goosegg posted:

A 4th round pick isn't chopped liver - senior or not. 

Here's basically how college seniors work in the draft:

• tippy top (who had relatively consistent careers topped with a fantastic senior year) go top 4ish or better (with significant slot discounts) (i.e., a well developed "resume"),

• next level top 10 rounds (guys who had consistent careers with a good senior year [often the workhorses of their program senior year] OR guys who had fantastic senior years (would have been drafted single digit had that year been a year earlier) (significant slot discounts) (i.e., a good resume OR an off the chart senior year),

• lower rounds (good careers - often slowed by injury) (no bonus), and finally

• free agent signings (based upon an area scout having gotten to know the player and seeing "something").

 

So do you think a 4th rounder, senior, position player,  with a tiny signing bonus will really get a chance?  I have heard that the guys with big bonuses will often get promoted ahead of the lesser, even if the lesser bonus guy is playing better, better stats, etc. 

Performance rules the pros. Period.

Guys taken in 1st or 2nd rounds may get more chances (sometimes lots more), but no team wastes a 4th round pick so it can save 300k to sign a HS kid (if that were true, they'd draft the son of a scout and sign him for 5k).

It may frustrate some that 1st and 2nds get more chances, but there's lots of opportunities for every draftee to advance. I know guys - seniors - drafted near the tail end of the draft and make it (one to MLB as a catcher, another to AAA as a pitcher in 3 years, another as a hitter to AAA in 4; and once you get to AA, you're on the big club radar).

My son was a single digit senior; got a surprisingly decent bonus (still 80% off slot) and had every opportunity in his first two years to make his mark.

The real enemy of a senior is time; instead of 3 - 4 years to get going, you get 2 - 3 (and the HS kid gets 4 - 6+). BUT, if you really got it, you'll make it. (Here is where Consultant Bob's sixth tool is the determiner [imo and barring injury].)

PS, stats do make a huge difference. But you need to know which stats make a difference. And those are NOT what I, as a fan, look at (like BA , OPS). Minor league evaluation is now really data driven - but not data as traditionally used measurements. (You could do a whole thread about modern metrics and not reach a definitive opinion on its effectiveness, but it's the way the game is now being played and, therefore not under a player's control.)

MLB.com writer Jim Callis got into the Mangum case in his piece today:

https://www.mlb.com/news/inbox...aft-padres-campusano

"Since the Draft, I've gotten a lot of questions wondering why seniors often sign for $10,000 or less in the first 10 rounds. Many of you were incredulous when the Mets signed Mississippi State outfielder Jake Mangum, the Southeastern Conference's all-time hits leader, for $20,000 in the fourth round.

"College seniors with no eligibility have zero leverage. The very best of them can earn six-figure bonuses -- North Carolina State first baseman Evan Edwards got $122,500 from the Marlins in the fourth round and Rice left-hander Evan Kravetz landed $112,500 from the Reds in the fifth -- but they're the exceptions. If they want to play professional baseball, most of them have to accept a minimal bonus.

"Despite a stellar college career, Mangum got dinged for being 23 years old, which is ancient by baseball standards for someone entering pro ball. He was Draft-eligible in both 2017 and 2018 and could have received a six-figure bonus in either year if he had been willing to sign where teams valued him.

"This is a matter of supply and demand rather than seniors getting penalized. That said, there is a change I would like to see that would reduce the number of seniors who get pushed into the top 10 rounds to save money against the bonus pools.

Under the current rules, if any player doesn't sign in the first 10 rounds, his team loses the value of his pick from its pool. But unsigned players from the fourth round or higher don't yield compensation choices in the following Draft, so I'd give each club the same amount of money ($2 million) for the fourth through 10th rounds and they'd get to use all of it even if some of those selections didn't sign. That would lessen the need to take cheap college seniors to push the savings to other players"

mamabb0304 posted:

Opinion: IF you think your child will eventually sign with MLB, they should sign their Junior Year or from a JUCO. Signing their senior year looks to be a real non-option. 

 

Sometimes, getting drafted after 4 years of college is the ONLY option for seniors.  It is a "take it or leave it" money situation.  There are many who sign as a free agent....for free...after the draft, just to get that chance to continue to play ball.

But yes, a player will usually be offered more bonus money as a junior.  Late round drafting as a sophomore usually indicates the player wants to go back to school another year. 

And then there are some players that WANT to go back and play for their college their senior year and try to get to the CWS and play for a ring.   Possibly they already have what equals to good bonus money in their bank account (ie:  from a family with means).