Peaking Early?

I've seen a lot of videos from HS players throwing indoor in both practices and winter showcases/camps with them hitting their top speed mentioned in the caption. 

Why are these guys at 100% so early? I know the season is starting up in some of the southern states, but even in November/December. Guys that aren't able to take a mound until April are hitting their top speed of 86 at a "scout day" somewhere. I know everybody has their own method, but is this normal? 

I guess the question is why are guys throwing so hard all winter and why are committed kids still attending showcases? In December nevertheless. 

Original Post

My son didn't pick up a baseball between Oct-14 and Jan-2.  He's now throwing twice a week.  They have a permanent radar gun and he was throwing 2-3 MPH less than his top speed from last summer, but 2-3 MPH fast than this time last year.  Said he was very happy with it, seeing he's just starting up.  I've taught him well, it's all about getting better every year and peaking at the right time!

It's never been about being the hardest thrower at 14U or blasting the gun in January.

Good thread, IMO.

Don't know about November, but our January is equivalent to March if you're in New England -- i.e., our season starts Feb. 9th. So by late January kids are fairly well ramped up. A lot of pitchers here are off the mound from August to November, but by January they're ramped pretty well. Saw this newspaper article yesterday about a winter scrimmage a couple night ago -- the 2020 touching 98 sounds like he's ready for the season to start next week: 

https://www.sgvtribune.com/201...-pre-season-tune-up/

One reason committed kids are in mid-season form in winter of their senior year is the draft.

Last week I sat in a backyard where several scouts gathered at the local guru's house to watch pitchers; mostly older pro guys who were looking to get picked up (a sad perennial story for another thread).  But, mixed in were HS seniors who were also throwing and getting gunned.

No question its early (though colleges have or will shortly start seasons), but the HS season is over quick (maybe 10 starts for a pitcher). 

Scouts need to first identify the pool of players to be seen, see each several times to begin an initial ordering of players,  - for single digit prospects - word and video is sent to home office so that HO can decide where the top guys in scouting go (e.g., cross-checkers, asst gms, and even higher for top round potential). With only March - late May to evaluate, there's lots to do and little time to do it. (You might say the clubs are making their lists and checking them twice.)

A single digit HS pick needs to have miltiple levels of eyes on.

Indirectly related, I have seen GMs, cross-checkers, and heads of scouting, scout the very first game of the HS season  (scouting prospective 1 - 2 round picks) and have seen those kids completely fall off the draft table after a few early season looks.

Now, there's always going to be room at the draft for the 95 mph guy who cranked it up later in his HS season; but the early bird catches quite a few worms.

(I watched Max Fried amd Lucas Giolito (sp?) throw at a mid-January college HS tournament several years back. One sat 94, the other 97 - in January! Both first rounders; one needed TJ immediately; the other a few years later.)

 

Goosegg posted:

One reason committed kids are in mid-season form in winter of their senior year is the draft. 

It is more of the 5'10 RHPs topping at 86/87 going to these winter pro days. I'm sure they are fine players but they are not even committed to top flight schools. I'm assuming they're being fed bad information or doing it to move up in the rankings?

I saw one recently : "5'11 Senior from __________ HS (Low level D1 commit) 83-85 T87. Good arm action."

Doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Are scouts even at events like this where there might only be 1-2 guys throwing 90? 

Good point PABASEBALL. FWIW, this was in a Fangraphs chat yesterday with one of their prospects writers:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/er...nhagen-chat-1-31-19/

WASBAPPIN: What’s abt the minimum height/velo for a high school RHP to be a ‘prospect’ or even just ‘a guy’?
 
Eric A Longenhagen: Height I really don’t care about. The low-end guys we write up are typically 87-90 and either give us reason to believe they’ll eventually throw harder or do something else really well. I think Josh Tols is the slowest-throwing pitcher we’ve written up this year.
Goosegg posted:

One reason committed kids are in mid-season form in winter of their senior year is the draft.

Last week I sat in a backyard where several scouts gathered at the local guru's house to watch pitchers; mostly older pro guys who were looking to get picked up (a sad perennial story for another thread).  But, mixed in were HS seniors who were also throwing and getting gunned.

No question its early (though colleges have or will shortly start seasons), but the HS season is over quick (maybe 10 starts for a pitcher). 

Scouts need to first identify the pool of players to be seen, see each several times to begin an initial ordering of players,  - for single digit prospects - word and video is sent to home office so that HO can decide where the top guys in scouting go (e.g., cross-checkers, asst gms, and even higher for top round potential). With only March - late May to evaluate, there's lots to do and little time to do it. (You might say the clubs are making their lists and checking them twice.)

A single digit HS pick needs to have miltiple levels of eyes on.

Indirectly related, I have seen GMs, cross-checkers, and heads of scouting, scout the very first game of the HS season  (scouting prospective 1 - 2 round picks) and have seen those kids completely fall off the draft table after a few early season looks.

Now, there's always going to be room at the draft for the 95 mph guy who cranked it up later in his HS season; but the early bird catches quite a few worms.

(I watched Max Fried amd Lucas Giolito (sp?) throw at a mid-January college HS tournament several years back. One sat 94, the other 97 - in January! Both first rounders; one needed TJ immediately; the other a few years later.)

 

Son faced both Fried and Giolito.  Several scouts had Giolito throwing 96-102.  Son mentioned that was the only time he was hesitant stepping into the box against a pitcher.  BTW, Giolito had some control problems that day lol.

We are in the same boat in Texas.  Several of our pitchers, including my son didn't throw all fall (Since 3rd week of August) and started back up the week before Thanksgiving to prepare.  He had a camp at the school where he is committed in January and threw one inning and had a scout day the next weekend where he had to throw.  Our first scrimmage was Monday and we saw a pitcher on the other team hit 96mph and two on our team hitting 94 and 93 respectively.  There were 62 scouts in the stands, so they needed to be ready.  I think when you know you'll need to throw, you plan for it in advance.

Goosegg posted:

One reason committed kids are in mid-season form in winter of their senior year is the draft.

Last week I sat in a backyard where several scouts gathered at the local guru's house to watch pitchers; mostly older pro guys who were looking to get picked up (a sad perennial story for another thread).  But, mixed in were HS seniors who were also throwing and getting gunned.

No question its early (though colleges have or will shortly start seasons), but the HS season is over quick (maybe 10 starts for a pitcher). 

Scouts need to first identify the pool of players to be seen, see each several times to begin an initial ordering of players,  - for single digit prospects - word and video is sent to home office so that HO can decide where the top guys in scouting go (e.g., cross-checkers, asst gms, and even higher for top round potential). With only March - late May to evaluate, there's lots to do and little time to do it. (You might say the clubs are making their lists and checking them twice.)

A single digit HS pick needs to have miltiple levels of eyes on.

Indirectly related, I have seen GMs, cross-checkers, and heads of scouting, scout the very first game of the HS season  (scouting prospective 1 - 2 round picks) and have seen those kids completely fall off the draft table after a few early season looks.

Now, there's always going to be room at the draft for the 95 mph guy who cranked it up later in his HS season; but the early bird catches quite a few worms.

(I watched Max Fried amd Lucas Giolito (sp?) throw at a mid-January college HS tournament several years back. One sat 94, the other 97 - in January! Both first rounders; one needed TJ immediately; the other a few years later.)

 

I think I may know that Backyard    Thanks Goose!

I completely understand the guys whose seasons start up earlier or have some real baseball ability that are throwing for scouts. The guys throwing 94 gotta do their thing.

I do not understand why I see videos of guys 4 months out from their season grunting during every pitch in their bullpen giving 100% max effort. I think throwing with that much effort just for a few likes/retweets is silly and just looks kind of desperate. Are they looking to get their name out there that bad? Maybe that is just a problem with social media in general.

Trust In Him posted:
Goosegg posted:

One reason committed kids are in mid-season form in winter of their senior year is the draft.

Last week I sat in a backyard where several scouts gathered at the local guru's house to watch pitchers; mostly older pro guys who were looking to get picked up (a sad perennial story for another thread).  But, mixed in were HS seniors who were also throwing and getting gunned.

No question its early (though colleges have or will shortly start seasons), but the HS season is over quick (maybe 10 starts for a pitcher). 

Scouts need to first identify the pool of players to be seen, see each several times to begin an initial ordering of players,  - for single digit prospects - word and video is sent to home office so that HO can decide where the top guys in scouting go (e.g., cross-checkers, asst gms, and even higher for top round potential). With only March - late May to evaluate, there's lots to do and little time to do it. (You might say the clubs are making their lists and checking them twice.)

A single digit HS pick needs to have miltiple levels of eyes on.

Indirectly related, I have seen GMs, cross-checkers, and heads of scouting, scout the very first game of the HS season  (scouting prospective 1 - 2 round picks) and have seen those kids completely fall off the draft table after a few early season looks.

Now, there's always going to be room at the draft for the 95 mph guy who cranked it up later in his HS season; but the early bird catches quite a few worms.

(I watched Max Fried amd Lucas Giolito (sp?) throw at a mid-January college HS tournament several years back. One sat 94, the other 97 - in January! Both first rounders; one needed TJ immediately; the other a few years later.)

 

Son faced both Fried and Giolito.  Several scouts had Giolito throwing 96-102.  Son mentioned that was the only time he was hesitant stepping into the box against a pitcher.  BTW, Giolito had some control problems that day lol.

Interestingly many pro pitchers seem to lose velo already in their early 20s sometimes before reaching the majors. Giolito is now 91-93 T95 in the majors and struggling and he is only like 25 yo or so.

I wonder if all the early velo training causes them to peak and burn out early.

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