My 2022 (who turns 15 in 3 months) had a chance to take some BP using a wood bat (Victus JC24 32/29) where the had Hit Trax in the cage.  Here were his three best swings for distance:

318 feet with an EV of 85.6 MPH and a LA of 32 degrees 

310 feet with an EV of 82.8 MPH and a LA of 31 degrees 

305 feet with an EV of 83.2 MPH and a LA of 29 degrees 

Average of these three:

311 feet with an EV of 83.9 MPH and a LA of 31 degrees 

THE QUESTION: How good is this given his age, using a wood bat, and that it was facing BP speed (which I estimate was around 55 MPH)?

Original Post

It's fine, but you're asking how good your sons BP performance is. 

Better to measure exit velo off a tee. At showcases it is done off a tee, so the ball is stationary and everybody is on an even playing field. That will give you the most accurate representation of how hard your kid hits the ball. Can't have the speed of the pitch influence those numbers.

As for the numbers, it's good to see he is capable of driving the ball 300 ft, but I'm not sure how impressive that is off 55mph. Keep working, sounds like he's probably above most freshman, he'll be fine. 

PABaseball posted:

 Keep working, sounds like he's probably above most freshman, he'll be fine. 

Thanks. The guy throwing BP did ask him, at one point, "You're a freshman, right ?" I assumed that was asked because they were surprised with the results.

adbono posted:

BP performance does not matter.  What matters is what he does in games against good competition.

That said, if you're averaging 125 feet with an exit velo of 65 MPH in BP, that probably means you're not going to do much in games against good competition. 

Francis7 posted:
adbono posted:

BP performance does not matter.  What matters is what he does in games against good competition.

That said, if you're averaging 125 feet with an exit velo of 65 MPH in BP, that probably means you're not going to do much in games against good competition. 

Dude, you are so hung up on measurables and comparisons.  You just don't get it.  Metrics of a 14 yr old don't mean much of anything.. So many people have tried to tell you that but seems like you will have to learn the hard way.

adbono posted:
Francis7 posted:
adbono posted:

BP performance does not matter.  What matters is what he does in games against good competition.

That said, if you're averaging 125 feet with an exit velo of 65 MPH in BP, that probably means you're not going to do much in games against good competition. 

Dude, you are so hung up on measurables and comparisons.  You just don't get it.  Metrics of a 14 yr old don't mean much of anything.. So many people have tried to tell you that but seems like you will have to learn the hard way.

Why do "Metrics of a 14 yr old don't mean much of anything"?  (And, for the record, he's practically 15.)

Your son is a very good baseball player for his age, which is great. Mine is too. (And I'm really happy for my son, because he works his tail off week after week to get better. I'd bet that's something our sons have in common).  Based on what you've said, it sounds like your son will be successful in HS baseball this year. However, when push comes to shove it really doesn't matter how good either of them are right now. 

(This recent post by LUV BASEBALL really hit home for me)

They have many years ahead of them, and many things to derail/distract them.  So we might as well enjoy them this season, and appreciate all that they do, and try not to worry too much over the future. It is tough because we want to do the best for them, to help them get where they want to be. But 95% of that will be up to them. I hope your kid has a great spring and mashes the heck out of North Jersey and NYC pitching -- if we lived closer to you, we'd be tempted to come up and see him play. 

Thanks all. I just am struggling to understand why the metrics on a 14-15 year old don't matter. Yes, for sure, you have the distractions (3 G's) and derailments, etc. But, that's like me saying that I should quit my job now because the sun is going to burn out down the line and the earth is going to be one big ice ball in the end...so, why bother worrying about anything now? More to point, if Bazooka Blaze is a 6-3, 225 pound, 14 year old who can hit the ball out of Marlins Park (or whatever it's called) several times during a round of BP, are coaches and scouts going to look at that and say "Aw, Geez, who cares? He's only 14. Nothing matters for a 14 year old and nothing matters in BP. Let's wait until he's 17 and have him hit off a tee before we make any determinations on this kid."

Bear with me -- I'm a science teacher. And I'm not trying to be snarky or anything. I am genuinely trying to answer OP's question. 

The reason I keep telling myself "my kid is pretty good... but it doesn't really matter, he's 13" is because I think baseball progress is non-linear. On the graph (I made up) below, each curved line represents one kid's progress as s/he ages. 

Just because a kid is better than most at age 14 (highlighted yellow strip in graph below) doesn't mean he will keep getting better every year as he grows older. If he did, he'd probably end up a major leaguer! Based on what I've read here, that happens to a few kids. Most kids hit a plateau or get injured or lose interest or want a social life outside the gym or get cut or decide career preparation is more important than staying on the team (or ...) . Those are all the trajectories that peak and roll over, sometime between 14 and 22. On the other hand, some kids are late bloomers - those are the ones that might be average at age 14, and then take off later in high school.

IMG_0548

I don't know how common each type of kid is, though I would guess "above average then plateaus" is pretty common. The area I shaded in blue is the one where I guess most of our kids will end up. Then there are the superstars (Trouty, representing my current South Jersey) who just blow by everyone and stay there. Even those guys have to be lucky as well as good. 

So bottom line is.. yes, for my baseball-loving kid's sake, I'd rather he be awesome this year at 13 than be average. However, if he is awesome this year, I will resist the temptation to assume he will also be awesome next year. I will encourage him to focus on the present and do what he can now to get better and help his team. (I will keep reminding myself to do the same!) As long as he works hard, enjoys working hard, and keeps up with his responsibilities, I will keep schlepping him around and paying for his baseball stuff. I will enjoy the ride (and the day-dreaming) as long as he is willing and able to play. I will also keep encouraging him to keep up with non-baseball things; I want him to grow up a whole person and not to feel like his whole worth as a human depends on his baseball performance. 

Sorry for long post. I feel like OP is wondering the same things we all are, marveling at how determined and motivated our kids are, and keeping our fingers crossed that they will stay healthy ... and we are all trying to manage as best we can. 

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2024, thanks for the post.

Agreed, it's a funnel and everyone eventually hits a plateau.  

Still, it's good to be able to evaluate current state in context in order to level set expectations or understand what needs to change if you want to continue.

The metrics are fine and above his age group. Keep using wood and measure off a tee to collect EV data a very useful tool for tracking progress. I like the use of probatter to help with timing. My kid hits like Willie Mays Hayes with it set to mid 60s but 75 anf higher he looks like he hit V level and above. Timing is a "mutha" (his vernacular) to get down with the probatter but it is even worse with just the machine

Francis7 posted:

2024, thanks for the post.

Agreed, it's a funnel and everyone eventually hits a plateau.  

Still, it's good to be able to evaluate current state in context in order to level set expectations or understand what needs to change if you want to continue.

I think you missed the whole point of the graph (which I thought was brilliant).  Based on data when they are 14, it is hard to level set expectations cause you don't know the path he is on (or maybe I missed the point of the graph  ).

Your son seems like a very solid player.  It seems like he enjoys working hard at getting better too, which is a huge plus.  I think what most people are trying to tell you is.....  Now it is time for Dad to sit back, enjoy watching his son play and quit trying to compare his results to others at his age.  

Good luck to him in his freshman season!

MNBBG

Tim Turner posted:

Francis I’ve heard and read so much about your son, I’d like to see him swinging the bat.  Can you post a video or two?   Thanks 

BP swing from a month ago.

Homerun in a local travel league around 3 months ago.  (Fall league.)

One swing against the Hack Attack (high velo) one month ago.

Video of the Hit Trax from the OP

 

How big is mom and Dad? Historically what is the growth pattern of the family?

I wish I could have all the time back worrying how my older kid matched up. My youngest was a good ball player but never matched up with the studs in his class and never projected to be college player. I wish I had enjoyed my other sons Middleschool/HS ball games as much as my youngest. The time worrying and trying to compare at 14 is just not worth the effort. The goal is to just keep getting better. the only good stats are at 14 is to gauge progress. If he is better than the rest is will show in games. That is what brings opportunities. 

ENJOY, ENJOY, ENJOY. Don't worry. If the kid is working hard and doing what he needs to do, everything will take care of itself. 

Francis. Ive got a kid just about your sons age and his swing is NOT as good as your boy's. His exit velo w bbcor is max 80 on recent session.   He s considered a very good local player but not anything "exceptional". Yet.  I suspect you already knew he had a plus hit tool thus far but perhaps this info helps w validation for you?

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