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27 replies

PG Gets It Right!

G GrabSomePine100+ posts
Here's some proof - these numbers don't lie.

In response to a PM inquiring about whether PG does any follow up analysis to compare ratings given with actual results (i.e. do players projected to play D1 actually do so?), PGStaff responded concerning 8.5 rated players (per my request) as follows:

****

"I actually have a chart on all graded players now. It will take some work to sort it all, but I did do the 8.5 graded players. Here are the results.

We took all the 8.5’s we had in the database. 2,462… We actually have college data for 2,122 of those graded 8.5.

8 -- Potential mid round pick, definite DI prospect

578 went to Top 40 type DI programs
886 went to other DI schools
1464 total to DI
298 to Juco
143 to DII
The rest (217) to NAIA or DIII
340 we have no information on.

So out of 2,122 that we can account for… Almost 70% went to a DI college.

Even if we add the 340… it is almost 60% went to a DI college.

Many others went to top DII’s and top Juco’s.

I would imagine that at least some of the 340 unaccounted for, did not play college baseball. We just don’t know the number.

Only 217 out of the 2,122 went to DIII or NAIA… Just over 10%

Draft figures for the 8.5 graded players.

6 drafted in the first round
12 drafted in the second round
11 draft round three thru five
20 drafted round six thru ten
39 drafted round eleven thru twenty
53 drafted round twentyone thrue thirtyfive
71 drafted round thirtysix thru fifty

Total drafted - 212 - 10% of all those graded 8.5... Of course, several more will be drafted as these numbers include players graduating in 2010 and many others who could be drafted out of college.

All in all, I think this represents a fairly good job on our part of evaluating these kids. Some who were graded at a very young age. It also shows that we are wrong at times, though it is much easier finding out what we were correct on vs. what we might have missed.

Also, just because a player is at DIII, NAIA, or Juco doesn't mean we missed on his grade. He very well could still have DI or draft potential."

***

Let me use this opportunity to publicly thank PGStaff for his extraordinary efforts. As you can see, he went to extreme lengths to compile and share this data with someone whose son has already been through the recruiting process and therefore no longer a prospective customer. Pretty amazing stuff, but most of you already know that.
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Ryanrod23Ryanrod231,000+ posts
This is pretty heavy stuff. Based on this, you have at least a 70% chance of playing in college if you have a grade of 8.5 granted you still have that drive after HS. Just to clarify, No 8s in this data or both 8 & 8.5 were considered? Also, Do the numbers reflect 2462 individual players and does not include players who attended multiple showcases and got same grades? Thank you very much for sharing this Mr. PG staff and Mr. Grabsomepine!
F 3FingeredGlove1,000+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by DoverDAD:
Whats the success rate when they get to college. I have researched some of these players and found that half the time they are not that successful.
no knock on PG ,it just shows how hard it really is.


Well, yes. In fact about half of college baseball players will turn out to be below average. Cool With the (recently reduced to) 35 player roster, close to half of any team plays sparingly, and presumably we would deem those players as "not that successful".

Seems to me that the main determining factor in whether a player is successful in college (assuming he can play college ball somewhere) is in joining a team which will have an average level of talent somewhat below the player's talent. The same 8.5 player who would be very successful at college A might struggle at college B, if B has a greater level of talent. A player rated 10 may receive minimal playing time if he attends one of the perennial CWS teams, yet could have been a complete stud at, say, a mid-level D1.

PG can't predict if the player will choose A (and be successful) or B (and have limited success); it can only predict if the player has the ability to play at A, B, or some other college.
J HJ H5,000+ posts
While all these figures are extremely impressive and commendable for the Perfect Game organization, I think it should be noted that this is not the be all and end all. PGStaff will be the first one to tell you that while Perfect Game might be there to help you as a positive road to the next level, your ranking and your attendance aren't everything that matters in the recruiting process.

The SATs are necessary to determine where you go to college. Perfect Game showcases and rankings are not. There are many other ways to be seen. If you have the opportunity and the wherewithal to attend a Perfect Game event then by all means, go. They are well-run, well-respected and if you perform, extremely helpful. But please don't put all your recruiting chips in the PG pile, because there are many other ways.
P PGStaff10,000+ posts
CADad,

GrabSomePine sent a PM asking specifically for those graded 8.5. Then asked for permission to post the information. Haven't done the 9's and above yet, but I'm sure the percentages attending DI and drafted would be even higher.

To answer a few questions...

The numbers include every 8.5 grade we have recorded, some are multiples. There are some that were 8.5 and would also show up at 9 or above from a different time. However, this was also true about some of those we have no college information on, so I don't know if it affects the percentages much.

The success rate of these players would take a lot of research. It would be great information, but if a player is drafted in the first 10 rounds, he might not be successful. Our grades are based totally on baseball talent projection, someone flunking out of school could get a 10 from us, but he won't show up attending a DI school. He might show up as a high draft pick or a Juco player.

Never thought of it that way, but 3FingeredGlove's post makes a lot of sense.

DoverDAD is correct when he said...
quote:
My point is that they do not always get it right
because predicting talent is very hard to do.

JH,
That was a good post and accurate too.
Last edited by PGStaff
playfairplayfair500+ posts
Considering that there are so many barriers to success for baseball players getting into college even if we use the 60% figure, the number of 8.5 kids playing ball in D1 college is staggering.

Figure, you have to have talent & grades for the specific school. A coach has to see you, want you and then need you. Parents have to have the money and the desire to spend it on the school or get loans...You have to get through the NCAA Clearing House.

It isnt easy.
playfairplayfair500+ posts
I think using the 8.5 number is the right measuring tool.

When someone says "potential" they mean it is not there yet but it could turn into it. That is fairly iffy.

Also, I would bet that a lot of the younger PG attendees get the 7.5 initially (because they are young with potential) and then work up in the grading as they got older and stronger and more refined in skill.
P PGStaff10,000+ posts
Holden,

That's a good point. We are actually going to do all the various grades. I do think the 6 and 7s will be the most interesting and probably show less accuracy.

The one thing that is true... We do get it right a lot, but we also miss on several. These misses go both ways. We have graded players a 6 who became draft picks, one became a second round pick. We graded one player a 5 who was drafted in the 21st round. There are many who went on to play at CWS programs that were graded 7 or less by us.

Point is we do make mistakes both high and low. All a person has to do is study the draft to get an idea of how inexact it is when trying to predict the future. Our evaluation is based on our opinion of a players potential reagarding his baseball talent/ability. Obviously there is much more involved in being successful.
DO Dear old Dad100+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by DoverDAD:
The topic is Perfect Game gets it Right.
My point is that they do not always get it right
because predicting talent is very hard to do.
By the way PG was right on with my own son.



I don't see where PG should even be in the business of 'getting it right'. The service PG offers is not predicting success, it's measuring tools and ability based on the overall abilities of all the players.

If my son is a '10' on his H.S. team and a '10' in his county, that does not mean he is a '10' to PG. PG rates him based on the largest pool of talent there is. And that's about it. The kid takes it from there.

When PG rates a kid they are telling him that other kids with his rating(tools & ability) are currently playing here(D1), and/or here(D2) and/or here(top Juco).

The one thing that I question about PG and the accuracy of the ratings is this. Are they self fulfilling? If colleges use PG as their #1 source for player info, aren't they likely to recruit the players that PG rates as college worthy and ignore the players with lower ratings? How often do college coaches get to actually watch their potential recruits in game action? So even if PG is wrong we wouldn't know it because the kid would get recruited anyway. I'm not saying that this type of thing happens a lot. I really don't know. But it does seem like it must.

I asked my son's college coach if he used PG ratings and he said he looks for '7's'. Maybe he feels 8's 9's & 10's would go to bigger schools and '7's' are worth his time persuing. If he is going to a PG event and puts together a list of players rated '7' to watch at the event, he is trusting PG to do some of his legwork for him. I doubt college coaches have the time to look at all the kids and tell PG they had a kid rated too high or too low.

I guess what i'm trying to say is that PG has these kids future partly in their hands. And that's scary considering how little they actually get to see of a player.

But, every time I read a post from PGStaff his professionalism, dedication and honesty shine through. So even though I am not thrilled with the recruiting process generally(lazy coaches), I trust PG to 'get it right' or die trying.
TRhitTRhit10,000+ posts
As one who manages a travel team perhaps I can help you parents/players in understanding the process from where I sit---

The PG rating can merely be the first step in the process for a college coach---lets say they see a kid in the PG ratings and then realize that he is playing with us---they will call and see where we are playing---we also instruct all out kids to inform the schools they have interest in as to where they will be playing---most of the other travel teams that I know do pretty much the same thing

There is a lot of behind the scenes work before it is all said and done for a player to commit and say it is over and finished----also keep in mind that rating in event # 1 can be much better in event # 2 or vice versa depending on the events performance---the report is based on the specific event and also factor in that the same evaluator made not be seeing him at both events---

I can tell you we have had players with us that other coaches asked WHY?---simple---we liked what we saw in the player---DIFFERENT STROKES FOR DIFFERENT FOLKS !!!! and those young men are now playing in college

Bottom line for you all--just sit back and enjoy the ride and don't let ratings dictate your thinking---the schools who see the player will make that decision for your player and that is what matters at the end of the day


Have a great Turkey Day !!!!
CT Clint Taylor100+ posts
Although my son played in many PG tournaments, he only attended one showcase at the end of his freshman year. He was graded an 8.5 His bio stated "a potential D1 player with possible draft considerations" - nice statement, but I thought "what do they know", he is only a freshman in HS.
About a year ago, Jerry included some evaluations that PG had been doing on my son from age 13 - 18, unknown by me. It was so correct, I could visualize each year that was included. Very much appreciated!

MOVE FORWARD 4 YEARS:
He was recruited as a LHP in college. Today he is a freshman at a SEC program. This fall he played outfield and was used as a late-inning closer. Just like an 8.5 should!
Yes, Jerry, you guys may miss some but not very many.
You and PG are the "Best" and I'm a believer with experience.
Coach_MayCoach_May10,000+ posts
Just because your son gets a good rating from PG does not mean he is going to sign with a school based on that rating. And just because his rating might not be good does not mean he wont get an opportunity to play for that school.

But. The fact is PG is just very good at evaluating talent. They have been at this for a long time. They have the experience of seeing thousands of baseball player over a long period of time. When they rate a player like Clint Taylors son an 8.5 then the fact is the kid can play. So it should come to no surprise that the young man ends up at a very good school.

If a college coach sees a kid and he doesnt like him he is not going to offer just because he has been rated 8.5. He still has to like him when he sees him. Now the chances are pretty good he will like him. But its not set in stone by any means. And if a college coach sees a kid and he really likes him. And then he finds out the kid was ranked a 6. He is not going to walk away from that kid because of that.

I can tell you if a kid is ranked that high a college coach is going to want to see him. But then he has to show to that coach the same thing he showed PG's staff in order to get that ranking. Sometimes they show even more.

No one does a better job than PG in evaluating talent. They are the standard that everyone tries to reach for that does this. They are highly respected and they earned their reputation. When they rate a kid an 8.5 college coaches are going to want to see that player. Why? Because they get it right way to many times to ignore.
P pudgemom3110+ posts
quote:
The one thing that is true... We do get it right a lot, but we also miss on several. These misses go both ways. We have graded players a 6 who became draft picks, one became a second round pick. We graded one player a 5 who was drafted in the 21st round. There are many who went on to play at CWS programs that were graded 7 or less by us.



PGStaff is right on the mark. My son attended one PG event a few years ago and was graded out as a 6. (He was very young and very thin at the time.) We are happy to report that son just signed a D-I NLI. A lot of factors play into assigning that grade (and PGStaff was very honest with us in responding in detail about son's eval, so he knew what he needed to work on). Unfortunately, we were unable to pay to go to more events...but son grew, matured and got much stronger..so who knows, he may have received a higher grade at a later time. In any case, I trust PG...and to players/parents...don't let that grade be the end-all. It gave my son an incentive to work harder!
Coach_MayCoach_May10,000+ posts
Great post pudgemom31. Isnt this just a perfect example of one person taking the information and using it as incentive to work harder and using the information as a guide to learn from? And another person taking the information and using it as a reason to bash those that do not give them want they want to hear and using the information as an excuse to not strive for what they can achieve with hard work?

You can tell two different kids the exact same thing and get totally different reactions and results. Congrats to you and your son and good luck in the future.
P PGStaff10,000+ posts
pudgemom31,

This might be hard for some to understand...

I hate it when we grade a player high and he doesn't come close to reaching his potential.

I'm absolutely elated when we grade someone lower and they go out and prove us wrong.

Because what we do is based on our honest opinion, we know ahead of time that we will make some mistakes. Predicting the future isn't easy.

It might seem odd, but when we see a player we graded a 5 or 6 get drafted or succeed at a high level, everyone in our office loves it. It's very reassuring knowing there are kids out there who will do what it takes to prove us wrong. It teaches us a lot and helps us improve. I really mean that! I’d like to know who your son is.

Congratulations and Happy Thanksgiving. Thanks for sharing that story.
Coach_MayCoach_May10,000+ posts
PG you know you can grade a player high and they can not come close to reaching their potential and you can still be right at the same time. The most talented player I ever coached in HS never came close to reaching his potential. But he was still the most talented player I ever coached in HS. He still would have been a 10 on your scale.
TPMTPMHSBaseballweb Member since 2003
quote:
Originally posted by Coach_May:
PG you know you can grade a player high and they can not come close to reaching their potential and you can still be right at the same time.


I agree, some players in son's class (really good) received 10's, not heard much about them since that time. Some received lower and playing at the highest level.

When one recieves a rating from PG, it should have meaning in relation to his development and skills in relation to his peers. It is then up to the player, to take that and work with the feedback on that rating. I am not sure if I got that right, but that's what we got out of it, from our experience.
BumBum1,000+ posts
Coach May, PG's grades are largely built on projection, a measure of potential. Some kids, though, are late bloomers and haven't yet shown their true potential. Not present ability. Potential. If you look at the six kids who got drafted in our town (Spokane, WA) out of h.s. at the age of 14 or 15 (early showcase age) maybe you could project two or three of them to have a shot. I certainly wouldn't have included my kid then! But something happens between ages 15-17 that is quite unpredictable. Some kids fall by the wayside and some take off big time. You just never know!

My point is to parents of 13/14/15 y.o.'s, it is sometimes futile to compare your son to the best at this age. A lot changes. Some kids "project" at that age but a lot don't, and those are the ones that are huge surprises!
Coach_MayCoach_May10,000+ posts
Yes I am aware that ratings are based partly on projection and partly on current ability. The player I spoke of was drafted. He was very successful until he decided to walk away from the game. He is or was more talented than a former player of mine that is in the starting rotation in the ml's. But he didnt have what that kid has in his heart.

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