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Coaches know that no pitcher is at top velo in January. But when evaluating a pitcher there is much more to consider than velo progression. Other things that can be evaluated at any time of the year are mental makeup, throwing mechanics, quality of secondary pitches, command of pitches (or lack thereof), body type, projection for growth, body language, work ethic, character (or lack thereof), overall athletic ability, coachability, academic standing, etc. However, all of those other things can’t be hyped up into a sales package and peddled on Twitter. So instead we get “velo dr” scam artists that have kids doing max effort pull downs  into a net (with radar gun measurements) in the dead of winter. All so they can post online how many kids are artificially hitting 90 (while they are being put at risk of injury). It’s all about these pretenders trying to build their brand on the back of unsuspecting HS players and naive parents who fall for it because they believe that velo trumps everything. And it doesn’t. Velo will open a door for you. But you don’t get to walk thru the doorway if you can’t stay healthy, throw strikes, and get outs. There is so much more to pitching than being able to throw hard. And I know this from personal experience. I was an exceptionally hard throwing RHP when I played. But at top velocity I couldn’t command my FB. I was completely ineffective until I learned how pitch. For me that meant figuring out how to command the FB at 90 (instead of max velo), developing a plus change up, and being able to throw any of my 3 pitches for a strike in any count. I didn’t put all of that together until the summer before my senior year in college. Players today don’t get the luxury of being given time to develop (unless they play D3) so you would think people would see the importance of overall development over just chasing velo numbers. But most don’t.

@RJM posted:

Why is he doing a February showcase? Can’t these coaches see him pitch in June?

Most Northeast schools have camps in Feb. I would say for most kids preparing for the HS season, they should be ok throwing a 25 pitch bullpen in feb, they probably are in the training sessions anywyay.

When my son was going through this, there was one school on his list who had their camp in January, he wasn't ready by then and we didn't do it.

My son is a high school player (co 2025). He had college coaches see him pitch at peak summer form and some will be seeing him again this weekend. His velo is the same despite his composition changing due to adding muscle. It’s only because of the time of the season. By mid spring to summer his pitching coaches expect to see his velo increase. He obviously isn’t looking at the increase he has had the last couple years, but 2-4 mph seems reasonable. I was just wondering how college coaches view that lack of velo jump in the off season. Also thank you!

I don't think they would look at it like that at all.  I also don't think they would ever look at a January velo in isolation.  I assume the July velos are his max velos from the summer, so good for him that those figures are now his starting point.  I think we all agree that the other factors matter, but velo is a quick gauge to for many to determine if learning more is worth it and gives you good insight on types of schools to focus your attention.  If your son gained weight/worked in the gym during the off season, I would note that progress as well since coaches really care about seeing that too.

My opinions on your specific questions, assuming you’re talking about a sophomore pitcher. I think most evaluators would assume that a healthy P is going to pick up some velo from Jan through April just due to getting in game shape. It’s not just the weather, pitching will make him stronger throughout the spring. JMO, but I don’t think an evaluator would put much weight on velo numbers from one 6 month period. So many other factors, including the sample size (many more pitches to measure in the summer than Jan). Did he play another sport during fall or winter? Did he have a growth spurt? Did he put on a bunch of muscle in the weight room? All things that would impact his velo in Jan. Now, if the kid has a full beard at age 16, and his body looks pretty much the same as it did a year ago, and his mechanics are good, then the evaluator might conclude that he's not going to add much more velo.

@RHP_Parent posted:

FWIW, according to my son, the number one metric correlated to velocity is a force-plate jump.  The more force a pitcher can produce, the greater energy can go into the pitch.  I don't understand it, but I'm reporting it

As with every metric there is more to the story than a number. The amount of force that a pitcher can produce from his post leg is important. But that force then needs to be transferred efficiently up thru the lower body, hips, shoulders & arm and ultimately to the baseball. Being able to produce a significant force doesn’t guarantee that any of the rest of that is going to happen. You also need proper and on time hip rotation, hip/shoulder separation, resistance from the stride leg in order to rotate over it, and a follow thru that keeps you in line with the target. That is an over-simplification. But I think you get the point.

@adbono posted:

As with every metric there is more to the story than a number. The amount of force that a pitcher can produce from his post leg is important. But that force then needs to be transferred efficiently up thru the lower body, hips, shoulders & arm and ultimately to the baseball. Being able to produce a significant force doesn’t guarantee that any of the rest of that is going to happen. You also need proper and on time hip rotation, hip/shoulder separation, resistance from the stride leg in order to rotate over it, and a follow thru that keeps you in line with the target. That is an over-simplification. But I think you get the point.

This is why power lifters aren't baseball players....But I get what he's saying. There are also pro franchises that will base a days workout/life on things like vertical jump to gauge recovery and what you should you be doing in the weight room.

@RHP_Parent posted:

Oh, I agree there's a lot more to being a good pitcher, of course.  I think the original question was about how recruiters go about predicting velocity.  My son's understanding is that colleges or clubs like to use the force plate as a predictor.  Don't know if it is true, but that is what he thinks!

He can think that if he wants to. No harm in that. But I scout & recruit HS pitchers and I coach college pitchers. And I don’t look at force plate as a predictor of anything. Nor do any other college coaches that I know. Just sayin’….

There are a lot of people attempting to make a living in the youth baseball industry by pedaling questionable teaching aids, suspect theories, buzz words, and catch phrases to naive players and their parents. This includes the big name “scouting services” that put on high profile showcases, The chase for velo numbers is like a feeding frenzy. The social media competition is rat poison (to steal a line from Nick Saban). Never before have I seen so many players that throw hard but have not a clue how to pitch. And don’t care to learn.

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