Question about "projection"

It sounds like he has some good tools and ability to play a bunch of positions. But I do feel like its still a bit early. Main thing right now I would say is to get him out there playing at a high level and learning the game. Kids seem to be less and less baseball educated these days and just go out there and play. Get him around the game learning the game playing as much as possible and having fun !

Sounds like he has some natural ability to be that size throwing that speed. It would be interesting to see what he does when he grows into his body. Some kids start high school throwing 74 and leave throwing 94. Some kids start high school throwing 74 and leave throwing 74. So, its hard to tell right now I would just focus on playing as much as possible finding a position he is best at and to focus on plus pitching. And have a lot of fun! I hate to see kids playing it like a job at a young age , save that for later.

best of luck to ya !

He is a freshmen, colleges don't see anything...

Wait 2 years and then ask the same question.

quote:

Originally posted by BOF:
He is a freshmen, colleges don't see anything...

Wait 2 years and then ask the same question.

Well said my friend. Teach him to keep his grades up and out work the competition.

Even though we're finish with High School, we knew 2 kids that were drafted out of hs, and knew of 2 others. None of them received attention as a freshman. It was during/after their Sophomore year when things got exciting. They were all over 6 feet too.

Good luck with things, enjoy the season

I am not sure what you consider "top level travel ball". Where my freshman son played 14U ball this past year we saw mid 80's and 74 would have gotten smoked. Agree no one is looking at 2015's. In the fall we played several ACC venues and our games started after scouts bed times. We only saw them when playing 2012, 2013 teams but they weren't looking at us.

mcmmccm.....We also saw quite a few guys into the 80's and I didn't mean to sound like I thought my son was a great pitcher...but even though he's not throwing 80+, he does manage to hold his own on the mound against some very good teams. We also saw several kids who threw 80 who couldn't throw a strike. Velocity is ridiculously overrated, especially if the kids are "throwers"...and not pitchers." I also understand that there aren't a lot of coaches/scouts looking at 2015 kids. I was his size as a freshman and was 6'0, 150 by the time I graduated, so we're hoping he can get to that. Just curious as to what coaches thoughts are when they see a smaller kid who can play? Do they give him the same consideration (and assume/hope he'll grow)....or just skip over him to watch the kid who's 6'2, 170 at 15 years old?

Unless the kids are already fully developed, and by the sounds of your son, he is not, colleges are not looking that far ahead. If they did, they would see a kid that needs to grow and gain strength and every comment would focus on that.

This is coming from a parent of a kid who grew and developed late. We watched guys hitting FAR less then him field offers as sophs and juniors and had to sit back and wait to see what happened with his size. Colleges aren't going to project growth because they don't have to! Every college coach said they really liked him and would watch his development! They wanted to see if he grew and gained in strength. He is much bigger and stronger now and although at the time I couldn't see it, now that he has that additional strength too, it matters a great deal. He committed just prior to his senior season.

Give it some time and don't stress now as you can't effect his growth curve and you don't want him to be worried about that either. The best advice was already given, out work the guys around him as that's really all that he can control.

Just enjoy the game, keep developing and wait a couple of years. A lot happens with kids from fourteen on. I was shocked how much different some kids looked from 8th to 9th grade and then from 9th to 10th. Once all the kids are 15, 16 years old the playing field starts to level. No one has a early puberty advantage anymore.

Buckeye...

If your son stays focused and works hard and works correctly, he will be fine. Just a note about velocity...unfortunately, it absolutely matters. We can all make cases where we would choose "pitchers" over "throwers". However, in my opinion, and having witnessed it over and over, the truth is that velocity does matter. Quite simply, colleges will look at hard throwers regardless of whether they are throwing strikes. So, my advice is to do the following:

1. Bandwork
2. Long toss (and more long toss)
3. Appropriate weight training (pitching appropriate, that is)
4. Proper diet
5. Proper and repeatable mechanics

I would follow the advice of those individuals who advocate that you relax and enjoy the process. It is easy for parents such as myself who have older sons to tell you this but it is true. Something that my son's 14 year old coach told all of the parents at the time was that we should not worry about alot of that stuff is because "it will work its self out". I did not trully appreciate what he meant until my son got older. So many kids that my son started out, the parents worried about whether they were doing the right thing or what did their current skills and size mean for the child in the future. I am hear to tell you that there is no need to worry about any of that stuff because some kids will continue to progress in the game while others will leave the game or realize that they don't have the skills to continue to play at the higher levels whether that be in high school or college. There is not much you can do about it, except relax and enjoy the process as long as you can.

mcmmccm:

14U mid 80's. LOL.

Those are HSBBW mid 80's.... (dad-7)

quote:

If your son stays focused and works hard and works correctly, he will be fine. Just a note about velocity...unfortunately, it absolutely matters. We can all make cases where we would choose "pitchers" over "throwers". However, in my opinion, and having witnessed it over and over, the truth is that velocity does matter. Quite simply, colleges will look at hard throwers regardless of whether they are throwing strikes. So, my advice is to do the following:

1. Bandwork
2. Long toss (and more long toss)
3. Appropriate weight training (pitching appropriate, that is)
4. Proper diet
5. Proper and repeatable mechanics

Right on the $$$$. The best thing you can do is make sure your Son does these things & let his game open eyes. Dont force it. He's got a long way to go. It's a Marathon not a sprint.

quote:

Originally posted by BOF:
mcmmccm:

14U mid 80's. LOL.

Those are HSBBW mid 80's.... (dad-7)

By semifinals of 14U tournaments we expected 82-84. In 13U the studs were hitting 80. Every pitcher on my son's 14U team threw 80 by the end of the season. One kid on the 14U team touched 86 with control anywhere between the backstop pipes.

quote:

Originally posted by Buckeye 2015:
Velocity is ridiculously overrated, especially if the kids are "throwers"...and not pitchers."

No, not even close. And the only ones I ever hear say velocity is overrated are those that don't have it. You have a chance to teach a hard-thrower how to "pitch." Not so much the other way around.

If I had it to do over again, I might just write out my own projections of my son's teammates when they were 14. I'd put it away in a sealed envelope until their senior year.

Enjoy the ride!

Twotex, that would be fun to be pulling out about now wouldn't it? Worth a good laugh.

quote:

Originally posted by twotex:
If I had it to do over again, I might just write out my own projections of my son's teammates when they were 14. I'd put it away in a sealed envelope until their senior year.

Some dads from our younger son's team did just that. Wasn't terribly accurate by end of senior year in HS.

quote:

Originally posted by golden rule:
I would follow the advice of those individuals who advocate that you relax and enjoy the process. It is easy for parents such as myself who have older sons to tell you this but it is true. Something that my son's 14 year old coach told all of the parents at the time was that we should not worry about alot of that stuff is because "it will work its self out". I did not trully appreciate what he meant until my son got older. So many kids that my son started out, the parents worried about whether they were doing the right thing or what did their current skills and size mean for the child in the future. I am hear to tell you that there is no need to worry about any of that stuff because some kids will continue to progress in the game while others will leave the game or realize that they don't have the skills to continue to play at the higher levels whether that be in high school or college. There is not much you can do about it, except relax and enjoy the process as long as you can.

quote:

Originally posted by RJM:
By semifinals of 14U tournaments we expected 82-84. In 13U the studs were hitting 80. Every pitcher on my son's 14U team threw 80 by the end of the season. One kid on the 14U team touched 86 with control anywhere between the backstop pipes.

LOL, and I have some beach front property in Arizona to sell you if you believe this.

When my son was in HS I gunned many games (in very talent rich Calif.) and I can't tell you how many times I had dad's tell me how hard their kids were throwing and universally it was 7MPH slower than the stalker.

When my son was 14u we went to a tournament in Tenn. One game they faced Dylan Howard. He was throwing around 90. He also hit a HR that sailed way over the 378 sign. I think he was a first round pick last year.

Our pitcher was 87-90 that game. He was picked in the supplemental round last year. Other than those two I don't remember anyone else standing out like that at that age. I'm sure there were a few others in that category put they are few and far between.

IMO if a 14U is throwing anywhere near 85 he is special for that age.

quote:

Originally posted by RJM:
By semifinals of 14U tournaments we expected 82-84. In 13U the studs were hitting 80. Every pitcher on my son's 14U team threw 80 by the end of the season. One kid on the 14U team touched 86 with control anywhere between the backstop pipes.

Whatever you say TG, whatever you say.

So, where are all these studs playing now? I guess you can tell me they all play in the ACC, I have now way to know.

BOF, I know what you mean. I have a Jugs gun which is spot on with all the Stalker guns I've sat next to used by Pro and College scouts. I have had a lot of fun helping dad's check their son's at games, often giving them a serious reality check. But even more fun when a group of dad's will come to me trying to debunk a braggart dad only to prove him right. If you look at 14U PG WWBA at East Cobb last year's top velocity there are many in the 80's (46 above 80) and number 7 on the list hit 92 on the scoreboard at VMI last summer. We played in tournaments from Michigan to Florida last year and ran into mid 80's pitchers all along the way. I guess there is a difference between local travel ball and National level baseball.

And Velocity may be over rated, but it is what it is. Velocity is what they look for, until they have their velocity quota filled, they will not sniff an effective lefty or righty, that does not have above average velocity.

Just curious...

Why do you own a jugs gun, and why are you sitting next to pro and college scouts?

To answer the OPs question... if a kid can hit 90, scouts are interested. Even if they are 8 years old.

If you 'project' 74 mph as frosh, add 3 mph per year, so they would expect 83 mph by senior year.

Back on subject for the original poster. Don’t sweat it, let the kid grow. You’d be surprised the difference a year (or less) makes. Not to mention motivation, which has to come from the kid, you cannot instill that. You can help it along, you can do many things but you can’t MAKE them want it. They have to want it.

My 2015 turned 15 a few months ago. He’s a FR. Less than a year ago he was around 5’9” or so and was probably 170lbs. (I’m 6’3” 240lbs so he gets his size honest – we both carry a lot of weight in our legs) and no one I know would have considered him fat. After an injury (unrelated to baseball) put him in physical therapy, he got pushed by two PT’s who were former college athletes. He just got a fire under his butt when he realized what he could accomplish (when them pushing him). He’s now 6’1” 175lbs, and he’s literally RIPPED. It seriously ****es me off, it even spurred me to get back in the gym. He gave up soda on his own, and he’s actually watching the kind of things he puts in his body. It’s always easier to listen to someone other than your Dad. His speed, flexibility and strength are worlds apart from where he was, and he’s still growing.

So hang in there. Let him enjoy his FR year. If he’s serious about it, the upcoming Summer and off-season will be where he lays the foundation for the years to come. Of course this is just my opinion.

And why is everybody so hung up on velocity at 14u/15u? As a former pitcher, I understand how scouts view velocity. I also played with guys who could light up radar guns but got lit up worse by opposing hitters. Hard and fast are two different things when it comes to pitching. FWIW by kid was clocked at middle 70’s (76mph I think) at GA in June of last year. With just growth, working out and some rest, everyone can tell how much harder he’s throwing now. Key is, he doesn’t feel like he’s throwing any harder, his growth and strength are getting him there with the same effort level.

Enjoy the ride, I am.

quote:

Originally posted by Mizzoubaseball:
Just curious...

Why do you own a jugs gun, and why are you sitting next to pro and college scouts?

Mizzoubaseball, I'm not sure if you've been to any of the big national tournaments like the 16U/17U WWB's in Atlanta, the Underclass in Ft. Myers or WWB in Jupiter but there are scouts/coaches, many >20 at games with top prospects, scattered in the bleachers with guns. It is very easy to see their readings for anyone sitting nearby. I have also been at many showcases where there are also lots of scouts/coaches in the bleachers with guns that are easy to see. At the recent PG pitcher/cathcher indoor showcase in Cedar Rapids they had a gun with a 24" reading behind the pitcher

As to your first question about owning a Jugs gun I wish I had one. As a former player, coach, and father of a pitcher I think it is important to know where the velocities of my 2013 are at. He gets BP's measured at his club quite frequently and we can periodically use it on our own. But with kids things can change negatively in a hurry with a unbeknownst (is that a word?) change in mechanics, delivery, etc...and lose a few MPH. Velocity is not everything but it is HUGE to scouts/coaches/rankings etc and you want to know where you're sitting at at all times...conversely if the velo is going up you also want to know as this reinforces that whatever you are working on and doing is working...Thanks, JMO

coaches do look at projectibility but not freshman or sophs..they'll look har at a kid junior year,,and will take a good look at the parents to see where they project..if your dad and mom are both 5 foot 7 you arent going to project well..

quote:

Originally posted by johnj314:
As to your first question about owning a Jugs gun I wish I had one. As a former player, coach, and father of a pitcher I think it is important to know where the velocities of my 2013 are at. He gets BP's measured at his club quite frequently and we can periodically use it on our own. But with kids things can change negatively in a hurry with a unbeknownst (is that a word?) change in mechanics, delivery, etc...and lose a few MPH. Velocity is not everything but it is HUGE to scouts/coaches/rankings etc and you want to know where you're sitting at at all times...conversely if the velo is going up you also want to know as this reinforces that whatever you are working on and doing is working...Thanks, JMO

John, I get why a father would be curious as to the velocity, change of velocity in his son. My son gets gunned regularly and you can kinda see how it is going. I was curious as to why this guy had a gun. I wondered if he was a scout or coach or whatever. It seemed odd this guy would be a random dad at his son's 14U game gunning pitchers. And that pro and college scouts would be there. And again, I could be off. My son didnt play on anything that would resemble an elite team at 14 years old.

But then again, my son doesnt throw hard. If my son was hitting 90+ consistantly, I would probably have a gun and would yell out the speed after every pitch.

Another dad on our select team had a radar gun. It was always interesting to see the differences between kids, including opposing pitchers, even when they were young and throwing 50-70. Why does it seem weird for a dad to have one?

I will start this out by saying my son was never the big hard thrower. Always threw strikes and got people out but was never that hard of a thrower. Still isnt by any stretch of the imagination. I never knew his velocity until the week before high school tryouts of his freshmen year,after getting gunned at the end of his winter training. I didnt ask when he got gunned to start training that year, and over heard him tell his mother. He succeeded as a pitcher so I never cared. Probably since he threw soft.

It must be a difference of opinion between us, but I would find it highly amusing to see a bunch of guys hovered around a radar gun at a youth league game. I could care less at the speed of opposing players. Everyone could tell if a kid threw hard, did it matter if we knew the exact speed? It would seem just as bizarre to see the dads with a stop watch timing home to first times, or a catchers POP time. I know if a kid is fast, or is good at throwing base stealers out.

Just a difference of opinion.

quote:

...but I would find it highly amusing to see a bunch of guys hovered around a radar gun at a youth league game.

That would make two of us.

Coach May will pop in here if he sees this with his numbers (and next time I am going to copy it and save it) but he had kids enter HS at 74 and exit at 94, some come in at 80 and leave at 83. (I am guessing but these should be close) The point is that it is not where you enter but where you exit HS that matters.

My son’s pitching coach had one kid at 85 when he was 14, and he also coached Bauer who was a heck of a lot less at that age. Both are now in the minors. If my son was 85 at 14 then I would treat him with kit gloves and really limit his innings as you are just asking for trouble with that arm speed with an undeveloped body.

Back to the OP, don’t worry - be happy and enjoy. It will be what it will be.

Mizzou, I got a really good deal on the Jugs gun from a relative. I like to sit behind the plate with the gun to "study" velocity, movement and effectiveness. I have had the pleasure of sitting near several scouts. I try not to be a bother and rarely tell them who my son is. Some like to talk and don't mind an occasional question and often provide valuable information. Mostly I like to keep busy and help the coach and parents who like to know how everyone is performing.(Sarcastic version deleted)

quote:

Originally posted by justbaseball:

quote:

...but I would find it highly amusing to see a bunch of guys hovered around a radar gun at a youth league game.

That would make two of us.

Then I would have been one of the dads you were making fun of as we would occasionally bring it out just for the curiosity factor when the boys were young.

You guys crack me up. Some here poop on other Dads that admit that they look at radar guns, yet somehow they all know exactly how fast their own son threw.



I actually own a radar gun. And I used it often before son played HS.

quote:

Then I would have been one of the dads you were making fun of as we would occasionally bring it out just for the curiosity factor when the boys were young.

Ohhhh I always thought that was a flask like the binocular flasks.

I will admit to this. Back when my son was 10 I believe, he was taking pitching lessons with another boy who I was good friends with the dad. I made some comment about how it would be cool to know a math formula that if you plugged in the time it took the ball to leave their hand until it hit the catchers glove, you would know the velocity of the pitch.(this really shows my lack of pitching expertise) So the next week, he shows up with a stop watch, and on a piece of paper he had some engineer he worked with, he wrote up some formula. So he would clock the pitch time and tell me. I would throw it in the formula to get the "velocity." After about 5 pitches or so we decided how ridiculous this was and quit doing it. Heck, that might be worse than actually using a radar gun.

Sorry to keep this off subject.

Mizzou....you guys should have patented that cause there are several i-phones apps that do that now...not real accurate but gives you a decent ballpark if your thumbs are fast enough..lol