Questions about early commits

Chico Escuela posted:

bacdorslider posted:

  On a side note to recruting,  I was talking to a friend of mine who is a RC at a P5 school. He told me how he had been in Atlanta for 3 weeks and was sick of watching high school players try to play baseball.  I asked him if he found any prospects and he said a few. 

 I then asked him about a 2020 I know  that committed to his school  .. and he said yes he's committed, who knows what he will become in three years... He said he could develop over the next 2 years and maybe they could use him his soph year.... but he could also get cut in the fall.  He said that he's a "wait and see commit"

Do you think that 'getting cut in the fall" has ever entered the 2020's mind or his parents mind?  Or how that impacts his college future having to transfer , getting classes to transfer,  I for one doubt they ever think about anything past tweeting and instagramming. 

 

Ouch.  A good reminder to choose a college with a baseball team you want to play for, not a baseball team that happens to be affiliated with a college.

Later commitments would help.  But how do you avoid cheating--coaches whispering the ear of players, parents, or travel team coaches that an offer will be there in a year?  How well are things working in softball?

Serious question:  How often do kids who get cut from a baseball roster decide to transfer because of baseball?  Maybe the college isn't a good fit or grades are bad *and* there is no roster spot... But how often do you think a kid who gets cut transfers to another school so that he can play?  It would be a tough situation...  From the outside, it's clear that school ought to be the primary factor, but I know it's not so cut and dried for many.

the attrition rate is high.... players transferring all the time.  2018's team is sitting on 41-42 players  gotta cut that to 35 by Feb.

bacdorslider posted:

Chico Escuela posted:

bacdorslider posted:

  On a side note to recruting,  I was talking to a friend of mine who is a RC at a P5 school. He told me how he had been in Atlanta for 3 weeks and was sick of watching high school players try to play baseball.  I asked him if he found any prospects and he said a few. 

 I then asked him about a 2020 I know  that committed to his school  .. and he said yes he's committed, who knows what he will become in three years... He said he could develop over the next 2 years and maybe they could use him his soph year.... but he could also get cut in the fall.  He said that he's a "wait and see commit"

Do you think that 'getting cut in the fall" has ever entered the 2020's mind or his parents mind?  Or how that impacts his college future having to transfer , getting classes to transfer,  I for one doubt they ever think about anything past tweeting and instagramming. 

 

Ouch.  A good reminder to choose a college with a baseball team you want to play for, not a baseball team that happens to be affiliated with a college.

Later commitments would help.  But how do you avoid cheating--coaches whispering the ear of players, parents, or travel team coaches that an offer will be there in a year?  How well are things working in softball?

Serious question:  How often do kids who get cut from a baseball roster decide to transfer because of baseball?  Maybe the college isn't a good fit or grades are bad *and* there is no roster spot... But how often do you think a kid who gets cut transfers to another school so that he can play?  It would be a tough situation...  From the outside, it's clear that school ought to be the primary factor, but I know it's not so cut and dried for many.

the attrition rate is high.... players transferring all the time.  2018's team is sitting on 41-42 players  gotta cut that to 35 by Feb.

And those extra 7 kids are likely pretty good ballplayers who could play somewhere.

Here are commits by a collection of D1 schools as of November, 2017.   This was the guide I used to give my son the green light (along with budget, fit, other attributes).  I took from this chart that 90% of the budget for the top P5 schools is spent by November of kids Junior years.  The 2019 kids were HS Juniors in November of last year.  If the right offer was given, he was free to commit.

The last set of NCAA rule changes will do nothing to this chart.  Do your own research for your situation.  Use all the disagreements above to stimulate your own thoughts about your family's situation.

Go44dad posted:

Here are commits by a collection of D1 schools as of November, 2017.   This was the guide I used to give my son the green light (along with budget, fit, other attributes).  I took from this chart that 90% of the budget for the top P5 schools is spent by November of kids Junior years.  The 2019 kids were HS Juniors in November of last year.  If the right offer was given, he was free to commit.

The last set of NCAA rule changes will do nothing to this chart.  Do your own research for your situation.  Use all the disagreements above to stimulate your own thoughts about your family's situation.

 

So, many of those schools are over-recruiting and the majority of those commits won't make the spring roster?  Certainly, Arkansas doesn't have 25 roster openings for their 2018 class.  Or am I reading that wrong?  Thanks.

CTbballDad posted:

Go44dad posted:

Here are commits by a collection of D1 schools as of November, 2017.   This was the guide I used to give my son the green light (along with budget, fit, other attributes).  I took from this chart that 90% of the budget for the top P5 schools is spent by November of kids Junior years.  The 2019 kids were HS Juniors in November of last year.  If the right offer was given, he was free to commit.

The last set of NCAA rule changes will do nothing to this chart.  Do your own research for your situation.  Use all the disagreements above to stimulate your own thoughts about your family's situation.

 

So, many of those schools are over-recruiting and the majority of those commits won't make the spring roster?  Certainly, Arkansas doesn't have 25 roster openings for their 2018 class.  Or am I reading that wrong?  Thanks.

You are not reading that wrong. Go on PG now and Arkansas has 23 commits listed for the 2018 class (not sure about the other 2) -- 1 of the 23 was drafted (and signed), so that leaves 22 planning to play for the Razorbacks next spring.

CTbballDad posted:

Go44dad posted:

Here are commits by a collection of D1 schools as of November, 2017.   This was the guide I used to give my son the green light (along with budget, fit, other attributes).  I took from this chart that 90% of the budget for the top P5 schools is spent by November of kids Junior years.  The 2019 kids were HS Juniors in November of last year.  If the right offer was given, he was free to commit.

The last set of NCAA rule changes will do nothing to this chart.  Do your own research for your situation.  Use all the disagreements above to stimulate your own thoughts about your family's situation.

 

So, many of those schools are over-recruiting and the majority of those commits won't make the spring roster?  Certainly, Arkansas doesn't have 25 roster openings for their 2018 class.  Or am I reading that wrong?  Thanks.

take those PG reported commitments with a grain of salt...they aren't 100% accurate and are self reported by the owner of the profile.

95% percent of these commitments on PG are accurate.. 

Assuming 22 players verbally committed is correct, how did the Arkansas coach pare that down by the NLI signing date?  He had to go back to some of those players and say sorry I changed my mind, we can't give you an NLI?  Wouldn't word start to spread about a particular program over-committing, which would discourage future potential recruits from verbally "committing" to them?  Not picking on Ark - just using them as an example.  I don't understand how a program can get away with this without damaging their reputation?

bacdorslider posted:

95% percent of these commitments on PG are accurate.. 

Which also means "they aren't 100% accurate"

GaryMe posted:

bacdorslider posted:

95% percent of these commitments on PG are accurate.. 

Which also means "they aren't 100% accurate"

true.

Qhead posted:

Assuming 22 players verbally committed is correct, how did the Arkansas coach pare that down by the NLI signing date?  He had to go back to some of those players and say sorry I changed my mind, we can't give you an NLI?  Wouldn't word start to spread about a particular program over-committing, which would discourage future potential recruits from verbally "committing" to them?  Not picking on Ark - just using them as an example.  I don't understand how a program can get away with this without damaging their reputation?

I don't have first hand knowledge of this, but a fair number of kids "commit" knowing they are going to be walk-ons without the benefit of a scholarship (and the attactched NLI). I would wager a guess that up to 20% of announced commitments do not include athletic aid, just my guess. If 27 players on the D1 roster are on scholarship (that's the maximum amount and not a mandated number) and rosters are filled at 35 players across the board, then around 22% of those guys on the roster either committed knowing they weren't going to get athletic aid or lost their scholarships along the way and decided "whatever, I just want to play at XXX."

So is it unscrupulous coaches over-recruiting and hosing the players, or is it players who are deciding (for whatever reason) that they want to commit to XXX, walk-on or not, and will see what happens.

GaryMe posted

I don't have first hand knowledge of this, but a fair number of kids "commit" knowing they are going to be walk-ons without the benefit of a scholarship (and the attactched NLI). I would wager a guess that up to 20% of announced commitments do not include athletic aid, just my guess. If 27 players on the D1 roster are on scholarship (that's the maximum amount and not a mandated number) and rosters are filled at 35 players across the board, then around 22% of those guys on the roster either committed knowing they weren't going to get athletic aid or lost their scholarships along the way and decided "whatever, I just want to play at XXX."

If you are right, then do the walk-ons get any benefit with admissions (or would that vary by school)?  If my "commitment" to Arkansas means the coach will let show up at fall practices and try to make the team, do I have any assurance I will even be admitted?  And if not, then committing in some cases just means "if you get in, then you can come to try outs"?  Admission at state flagship universities isn't a given, even for in-state applicants.  

Now the good questions are coming in. 

Qhead posted:

Assuming 22 players verbally committed is correct, how did the Arkansas coach pare that down by the NLI signing date?  He had to go back to some of those players and say sorry I changed my mind, we can't give you an NLI?  Wouldn't word start to spread about a particular program over-committing, which would discourage future potential recruits from verbally "committing" to them?  Not picking on Ark - just using them as an example.  I don't understand how a program can get away with this without damaging their reputation?

http://www.arkansasrazorbacks....al-of-arms-for-2019/

20 signed NLIs. One of those was drafted and signed.

bacdorslider posted:

Now the good questions are coming in. 

Ummm... thanks, I guess.  

my guess is that if you have say 42 players coming in for the fall...... 2 injury, 2 grades, 2 transfers 1 quits.... that's about normal. so then the number is 35..... 26-27 travel team depending on conference .... which will be 14 pitchers 2-3 catchers,  4 outfielders, 6 infielders.   

1.) committ......  2.) sign NLI.......  3.) make team ....... 4.) make ncaa roster....  5.) make travel team.......  6.) get to play....     7.) get to start .......

2019Dad posted:

Qhead posted:

Assuming 22 players verbally committed is correct, how did the Arkansas coach pare that down by the NLI signing date?  He had to go back to some of those players and say sorry I changed my mind, we can't give you an NLI?  Wouldn't word start to spread about a particular program over-committing, which would discourage future potential recruits from verbally "committing" to them?  Not picking on Ark - just using them as an example.  I don't understand how a program can get away with this without damaging their reputation?

http://www.arkansasrazorbacks....al-of-arms-for-2019/

20 signed NLIs. One of those was drafted and signed.

Wow that means only 15 guys (at most) stayed from the 2018 team and will get baseball money for 2019, right?  You can only have 35 max on the roster, correct?

Qhead posted:

2019Dad posted:

Qhead posted:

Assuming 22 players verbally committed is correct, how did the Arkansas coach pare that down by the NLI signing date?  He had to go back to some of those players and say sorry I changed my mind, we can't give you an NLI?  Wouldn't word start to spread about a particular program over-committing, which would discourage future potential recruits from verbally "committing" to them?  Not picking on Ark - just using them as an example.  I don't understand how a program can get away with this without damaging their reputation?

http://www.arkansasrazorbacks....al-of-arms-for-2019/

20 signed NLIs. One of those was drafted and signed.

Wow that means only 15 guys (at most) stayed from the 2018 team and will get baseball money for 2019, right?  You can only have 35 max on the roster, correct?

You can have a max of 27 getting baseball money. You can have a max of 35 on the roster.

Qhead posted:

Assuming 22 players verbally committed is correct, how did the Arkansas coach pare that down by the NLI signing date?  He had to go back to some of those players and say sorry I changed my mind, we can't give you an NLI?  Wouldn't word start to spread about a particular program over-committing, which would discourage future potential recruits from verbally "committing" to them?  Not picking on Ark - just using them as an example.  I don't understand how a program can get away with this without damaging their reputation?

I don't know any particulars about Arkansas, but here's what I observed from over a decade of watching players get recruited to big programs...

1. Most of the problem takes care of itself - players get drafted, don't make grades, get into trouble, change their minds...

2. Sometimes players offers are pulled at the buzzer and sometimes even after signing players are advised to not show up - "You will never see the field here, so you oughta looks somewhere else."  (BTW, this happens across ALL NCAA sports, including football, basketball, and others).

3. There is never a shortage of players willing to commit and sign with programs with higher reputations for doing this.  Everyone assumes it won't be them.  Sometimes it is...  True, it may discourage your son or mine, but the supply of good-enough players is greater than the slots on college teams.  Many nationally ranked programs "over-recruit."  It hasn't hurt them in the big picture.

^^^To add,

There are only  11.7 scholarships for baseball, IF the school is fully funded.

The minimum scholarship:  25%

Therefore......

Maximum on athletic scholarship: 27

Maximum on roster: 35.

So, if you hear of the school giving 30%, 50% 75% scholarships....the total number players on athletic scholarships  MAY NOT BE  27.   Mathematically, it can be a nightmare for the coaches.   Coaches love players that get academic money.  There are many players playing for free, and glad to do so.