Ranking draft "prospects"

infielddad, Dustin Pedroia is a very good prospect. Where he gets drafted would only be a guess on my part, but he will get drafted quickly and get an opportunity to play pro ball. I have watched him since he was in the 10th grade and he has a couple of tools that are outstanding......he can really hit and is an outstanding fielder. He has a great make up and has a feel for the game that not many players have that will take him a long way.

I don't know who the other player is you mentioned, so I can't comment on him. If you PM me with the info, I could then comment on him too.

Publications get info wherever they can, but in 20 years, I have never had one call and ask my opinion, so I take what they say with a grain of salt.

"Baseball America" and "Collegiate Baseball" are two fine rags that promote and rank hundreds of prospects at each publication. What people fail to realize is that even at those levels only a few are truly outstanding. Just think how many sports writers were touting various MVP and batting champs. It sells paper. Does anyone have the data on how many kids go on from college or HS and what is the average length of stay. I would have to say that I do not believe the tenure is more than a few years for the majority.

Steve

First of all they are not "rags"

Secondly there are more than just a few outstanding players on these lists.

Why the cynicism ????

TRhit

infielddad

Baseball America and PG do a great job looking, and ranking players, but it is just their oppinion. Anyways their oppinion is based on a lot of scouting hours , and asking to differents scouting sources, showcases, etc..
The most important thingh is that they always are very accurate in their predictions. Always will be an slipper or any surprise that nonbody may guess, by usually they are very close to reality. PG is the organization that Baseball America trust for this work, and Baseball America is the one that Major League Baseball do, so I think that they know what they are doing.

"Peace is, the respect for the other people's rights".
Benito Juarez

TR,
"rag" is (affectionate) slang for publication - no dis

IFdad, I saw Jecman throw last summer in Ohio & I'm not an expert, but at 6'9", 230# it was apparent to a blind man (me) that something special's there.

I guess there could be a variety of reasons that things have not come together for him in college yet, but I saw bullpen work that was impressive.

It looks as tho my kid will be catching him this summer, and if things are still falling into place for him the summer tandem of coaches Shapiro/Schoonover have a history of "putting it together"





lefties? - - - they just aint right!

BEE

In my book "rag" is a term for a "bad" publication, one that prints material that is sensational to sell copies-- do you call the NY/LA Times or Wall Street Journal a "RAG"?

TRhit

TRhit, rags is a term of endearment to the publication. I read and enjoy both of them.

I stand by the "just a few" as great is relative to where you set the barIMHO.

No cynicism intended, my question remains the same:
"Does anyone have the data on how many kids go on from college or HS and what is the average length of stay. I would have to say that I do not believe the tenure is more than a few years for the majority."

Overall professional baseball is a rough road to hoe on $900/ month for the majority.

Like most slang terms, the emphasis varies from one section of the country to another.

Since "rags" are used in the manufacturing of paper in order to give it strength, it's a common term for any print medium, particularly in the South, where a lot of the pulp paper industry is located.

It's also shorter to type and easier to spell than magazine or newspaper.

In NYC it means the Daily News and the Post

Not The NY Times or Wall Street Journal

TRhit

TR-Then NY Times would certainly fit your definition of "rag"!

Moc1

My oh My, let's see if we can further discuss ranking draft prospects and leave rags out of thread

I'll start. Lately it has been evident that PG Cross-Checker's lists are very good to peruse and have value for scouts, recruiters and others.

Ranking draft prospects has become big business and several are well-respected. Several sports management groups rely on these lists as well.
With this in mind, wouldn't it be advantageous for HS/college pro prospects to gain as much exposure as possible to try and move up those lists?? Wouldn't this include attending as many showcases and events as possible run by those who compose these lists? Wouldn't this increase slot money in most cases if drafted by MLB team? Wouldn't it be easier to negotiate amount of acceptable money offered by MLB team taking into consideration these lists? Wouldn't an agent find it easier to negotiate acceptable amount if player moves up lists? Just a few questions that make me go Hmmmm.....Shep's scratching his chin peace

Infielddad,

Generally speaking - I think BA/PG does an OK job with the college kids. I think they are much stronger on the prospect stuff than they are on the performance stuff though. I also think that if you arent a Div 1 player - you can pretty much forget about them talking performance - with rare exception.

Let me give you an example in this years NYCBL summer league. (Keep in mind that they rank this league in the lower tier of collegiate summer leagues - so it probably doesnt get as much scrutiny as the others.)

They had a couple kids - good players - that made the BA/PG Summer League All-Star team. Like 5th team or something. This was about performance now - not potential. It was not a prospect list.

One of the kids that made it played about 17 games - or about 30% of the season. I kid you not. The other kid had statistics that were good - but not great.

The class performance for a position player - with statistics to prove it - was Justin Wright.

And a kid named Ryan Jablonski was right there as well. Remember - this was a performance list.

Neither kid was mentioned anywhere.

You have to be either blind - or just not paying attention to overlook these players.

No slam on BA/PG - they do a great job on most of their stuff - but they miss a heck of alot as well. IMO.

Every year there is a report card. It comes in the form of the June draft. It again shows up in the recruiting classes. These results can be followed by anyone who cares to check them out.

If anyone can rank players in exact order without missing a few, they would not only be in demand... They would be the only thing that counts.

For the record... PG has never ranked college players before this year. Allan Simpson now does that for PG and his information is based on his many contacts throughout scouting.

This June we missed three out of the top 136 picks (top 4 rounds). We did not have them ranked in perfect order but they were all listed. Only one of the three was a high school player.

We take a lot of pride in these lists and don't waver from our opinions even if we hear the draft will go differently. That is why we ranked Beckett #1 in high school. It's also why we ranked Kazmir #1 in high school. Results are the only thing someone should argue about. If we were continually wrong would anyone pay attention?

There are many who claim we only rank those who attend PG events (or pay us)! A little research could allow someone to prove this rather than just make accusations. I would challenge someone to do the research... Use the report cards.

There are parents on this site who have had talented players who did not attend PG events. Yet they were ranked in the position we thought they should be placed. Were we correct? Not always... But we did NOT miss them! On the other hand we have missed some... just as the draft misses some each and every year. There is no perfection involved.

We know for a fact that the player rankings are followed closely. How do we know??? An Area Scout told us that his Scouting Director sent out a directive to follow our rankings. He ordered his scouts to not miss a player we have listed. Another way we know... When we enter a new player (name) in the rankings... our phone and email goes crazy with questions from recruiters and scouts... Who is this guy??? In one case some of you may be familiar with we entered a player (RHP) at #26 in the country. His very next high school start had over 40 scouts including 10 scouting directors. The start before the rankings were released there were absolutely zero scouts. Word travels like wild fire in baseball!

Some might think this is bragging or something. I call it the facts! If someone can prove the facts are different just prove it. But don't try to prove it based on opinion... Prove it by the actual results and the numbers. We make mistakes but we take it way too serious to make very many of them.

Every year people bring up how wrong these rankings are. This has gone on forever. Then in early June each and every year no one ever mentions this topic. Believe me... we have naysayers who would like nothing better than to shove the results down our throat. But this topic is always silent come every June! I think that can be checked as well.

Sorry, but we take player rankings very serious. If others don't that is fine!

I dont think there are many people that would question PG rankings (unless of course they think their kid should have been ranked - LOL - but that parent stuff will never stop IMO)

As PG says - the proof is in the pudding every June. And PG seems to get almost all of the top round guys nailed down - every year.

As for the folks that complain about having to go to a PG event to get ranked - that is pure BS. I know for a fact that PG ranks players that have never attended a PG event. So that stuff is just nonsense IMO.

I also believe it is very hard to cover 280 D-1 colleges - so you can bet that it is even harder to cover the rest (D2,D3, etc).

The fact of the matter is that when it comes to ranking players, PG is it.

As far as collegiate performance review - I think BA/PG has alot more work to do. Just my opinion as a paying subscriber.

I do remember when I complained to Jerry about the NY High School coverage several years ago.
I didnt do it to be a jerk - or for any selfish reasons - I just did it. LOL

What I have seen since then - the last 3-4 years - is vastly improved coverage of that region by PG.

Hopefully - the collegiate performance reviews will improve with time as well.

Interesting that infielddad started this topic over two years ago and it is still kicking. Must be one heck of a topic

Look, here is some anecdotal information on the rankings. I never heard of Jeremy Sowers until PG mentioned him here as a prospect several years ago. Everybody in Cleveland now knows who the kid is because he has been sensational in his rookie campaign. They are going to let him have one more start this season and then shut him down since he has already pitched over 200 innings between minors and mlb this season. For whatever it's worth

CD,

LOL - I didnt even realize that until your post. This topic was started in 2004.

Talk about being oblivious - or old?

LOL

its,

We do want to be as good as possible. As you know we spend most of our time with high school stuff. The College stuff is new to us, but not new to Allan Simpson. In fact, he has been recognized as the foremost expert in that area. His contact list is phenomenal. The college league lists are compiled using these contacts which include league managers, scouts and college coaches. But when it comes to high school kids we listen to everyone, see as much as possible and then do what we think is best.

I can guarantee you that when I hear a player mentioned as a prospect we take notice. (including here on this site) I appreciate input from others because we have the ability to check out a player anywhere in the country on short notice. In the end it will be our decision as to where we think that player ranks. (right or wrong but honestly)

Complaints are welcome, but often they are from parents who feel their son has been slighted. It is possible that a player can get slighted, but not intentionally. The parents don't always understand just how many players we see and can compare vs those they see. I've always said "We can afford to be wrong and will be at times... We can not afford to be wrong on purpose!"

I do get furious when I read those players paid to get ranked comments. There are thousands of people who know that is untrue! I consider that an insult!

Seems like we skipped 2005 on this thread!

However, I'd bet there was a similiar thread in 2005.

PG,

I dont think you have to worry much about parents that make those type of silly accusations. I think those folks disappear pretty quickly - and rarely if ever are taken seriously. Its just plain stupid. IMO.
Then again - I also am not on the receiving end of that nonsense - so it is easy for me to just shrug it off as stupidity or bitterness. LOL

As for covering high school - college - and pro baseball - it is a monumental task IMO.
I think most folks just look at the micro view - and concentrate on what interests them at the time. The macro view - on the other hand - reveals what a large undertaking it really is.

When people (like me) actually take the time to follow the prospect lists - year after year - it becomes readily apparent that the accuracy rate is something special. IMO - if some people dont want to accept that - that would be their problem - not yours.

All that being said - you know that I always speak my mind (respectfully I hope). In this case - it had to do with performance based issues in the NYCBL this summer - not prospect lists. If you do mention this to Allan Simpson - dont tell him I said that - I dont want "itsinthegame" hammered by him in Baseball America. LOL (Only kidding)

Allan no longer works for Baseball America. After 25 years as the founder and editor he joined us this year. You have nothing to worry about.

its, your opinions are always welcome.

PG,

In that case - may I respectfully request that you make sure that you have a concession stand at this year's Ft Myers event that sells "Grilled Italian Sausages and some good red wine"?

(You know the old saying - "if you dont ask you dont get") LOL

PG Jerry is mutual and unbiased in all my banter and dealings with him. In regard to these lists, he has a group of baseball experts to help him in these rankings and shows no bias toward anyone. He is an officer and gentleman who is the consummate professional and has honor from my observations as well as all others in my immediate circle of contacts which has grown considerably. In fact, I think Jerry thought I was kidding, but several weeks ago at a dinner after an AFLAC event in San Diego, a retired pro veteran of about 18 yrs old was so impressed with the organization of PG and the AFLAC events, he stated in front of a group of us at dinner, and I quote, "Jerry Ford is our Godfather". I'm know I'm full of it Jerry but I wasn't kidding when I posted that a while back!
You sir were paid the ultimate compliment in front of a distinguished group of knowledgeable baseball people. They all agreed. What you have done to help our youth and the scouting profession is monumental and you and your staff deserve to be recognized.

It is the best opportunity ever in the history of baseball for a player hidden in the corner of the world to be found and identified as top baseball prospect unlike years of the past. This can all be attributed to the thorough job done by Perfect Game and PG Cross-Checker who very seldom leave a stone unturned. JMO, peace

..man I was just observing along there thinking, "Wow, this is just like old times"

And, it was.

Its, no ramps, pinto beans, or lasagner....

FO,

I remember that one.

It was fun - but my choices of "home cooked" food took a bit of a beating in that discussion, if I remember correctly.

LOL

...time is hurrying on, its......

It sure is FO.

But I am having as much fun as ever - even as time is crushing me beneath its wheels.

LOL

BTW - Looking back at this thread - I saw a Racab post. Do you remember him? He was such a nice person - and his messages were always so direct and honest and real. I really miss that guy.

quote:

BTW - Looking back at this thread - I saw a Racab post. Do you remember him? He was such a nice person - and his messages were always so direct and honest and real. I really miss that guy.

Indeed, it was Racab that prompted my post......

Last posted in May 2006.

I believe that Perfect Game is the very best at what they do. Just look at the Perfect Game rankings and draft projections every June and you see how right they, year after year. But the organization is more than just putting numbers before players. I see PG as an insurance policy that protects talented players across the nation from being missed by professional clubs and college programs because PG puts them on the radar. Their reach into baseball at all levels, professional, college and high school, is unmatched. Their contact database must be enormous.

I knew nothing about Perfect Game or any rankings until the summer of 2004, when my son's summer coach called me to tell me that my son was ranked 339 in the Class of 2006 by Perfect Game. I paid to view the list and there he was. Perfect Game saw him play in Marietta ay a u-17 tournament.He was just a kid on one of the 60 or 70 teams at the event and never had attended a PG showcase. But based on what PG saw, he was now on the national map as a 2006.

My son was projected as a potential draft selection between the ninth and 15th round by PG Crosschecker a couple of months ago. They nailed his strengths and stated that he would likely go to college because he wouldn't command the kind of money it would take to sign him. Every scout and club official we spoke with were right in that Crosschecker range of 9-15. One club asked if he would sign for fifth round money if they took him in the 10th round and another asked if he would sign in the ninth round for slot money (small market club, that call came on Tuesday of the draft). Because of his situation and college opportunity, he declined. PG Crosschecker was like a crystal ball into the draft scenario with him.

There are organizations out there that I believe favor players who go to their events and showcases. My son attended a Baseball Factory event in January and his numbers just didn't match him. He is a catcher who consistently pops in the 1.9s and has for a couple of years. They had him at 2.1 and 2.15, told me that he had mechanical throwing problems and that he would do well at a catching camp at their Maryland facility. They also told me that they could fix the problems with his swing with their private instruction. It was the first time anyone said there was a problem with the way he hit, so I was surprised by that statement.

(I have to mention here that my son had two "plus" tools according to the scouts we spoke with prior to the draft, his arm and hitting ability...)

There actually was a sort of salesman, I mean, not even a coach, who sought me out and was talking to me about this. I told the guy that we were not interested. Subsequently, my son was not selected as a Top 30 prospect at this event, which only had about 100 players at it. I thought he played pretty well, and actually threw out two guys at second from his knees (tough to do at 2.15!) Many of the players who made the list were Baseball Factory regulars. I believe that if I had signed up my son up for lessons, he would have found his way onto that list.

Perfect Game absolutely isn't looking to make clients out of players. You go to a showcase and you have a stopwatch and a radar gun on you. You take BP, infield and outfield and run the 60. You hit, run, field, pitch, catch and throw in several games. Then you are evaluated and compared to the others at the event and then you are entered in the database being compared to others at the national level. You make your own way on your talent and ability. Your ranking is not tied to your willingness to buy into an upsell and take lessons back in the mother ship.

I have my 13-year old coming up and I plan on making him a Perfect Game kid. He's young and I have no idea of how good he will be someday, but I know with Perfect Game, he will be treated with fairness by an organization that exudes honesty, professionalism, integrity and the highest ethical standards as they evaluate the young players of today.

I'm just a dad, so no particular expertise in this topic. But I will give the perspective of a dad whose son has attended one PG showcase and observed the process.

When I first heard of PG and looked at their website, I had the usual skepticism one would have. I didn't even know there were such things as showcases, and the whole arena was new to me. I wondered if PG was on the up and up, or whether you paid your money and got your rating.

Through this board and just paying attention I grew comfortable enough to go to a showcase with my kid. He was a freshman at the time and I knew it was pretty early, but did it because I knew it would be year before we would have a chance to do another one.

My observation of PG, my infrequent personal interactions with Jerry, and my personal observations of the showcase have made me an unapologetic supporter of what PG does.

There is no question in my mind about the integrity of their ratings. (And that is not just because my son got a 10.5!)

Seriously, by the end of the showcase, from the conversation the evaluators had with my son, it was absolutely clear to me that they had done a thorough and honest evaluation of my kid. They had clearly watched him, knew his strengths and weaknesses, and evaluated them fairly.

IMHO, PG's integrity is a given.

Although I am not qualified to judge, the regard in which the industry most obviously holds them proves the accuracy of their judgements.

its,

Better than that... Ft Myers has Mildred's. Mildred is the best cook in Florida. Not quite Italian cuisine but great soul food. I eat there as often as possible. I recommend ox tails or the meat loaf!!! Kind of a rough neighborhood but its worth the risk! I've never sent anyone there that was dissatisfied.

Somewhere between what I said, everyone else said and what Shep said would be about right. ha ha ha... I've been called many things besides Godfather! Is that a good thing?

Thanks Shep for the testimonial, but I still think you're full of it! But don't worry because that can be a good thing!

PG,

Don't worry about being called a Godfather. Worry when they start calling you Fredo!

PG,

I usually go to Dwyer's - on Cleveland.

Great Irish bar/restaurant - indoor and outdoor.

Thank all you guys for the nice comments. It means a lot.

its,

You gotta try MILDRED'S, I'm very serious. On Martin Luther King. At first you'll ask yourself "What in the hell am I doing here"? Then after you eat, you'll know and you'll be returning.

I mean it... The food is really that good. Everyone I've ever taken there loves it and I've taken lots of people there. Make sure to lock your car!

PG - Thanks - I will give it a go.
But if you dont see me posting here anymore after the trip - send someone to look for me please.

LOL - Nite all

"Interesting that infielddad started this topic over two years ago and it is still kicking."

CD, this thread may be doing more kicking these days that I am.
Geez, I am shocked to see this one come back. On the other hand, it might provide a good point of reference. Dustin Pedroia, is now in MLB and has done very well on the way up. The player I referred to was indeed a high pick (6th round I believe) and signed after his junior year in college. He is still in low A ball. Has a long way to go to justify his draft position and bonus.
The point of my post was to question whether you base draft decisions on "potential" or production. Contrasting Pedroia and that player, production vs "potential" turned out to be the right criteria. Again, for me, where you are projected for the draft is great because of the $$$$ it puts in your pocket. But, as another thread proves, whether those dollars were a proper "investment" at some point is determined by production. Eventually, if you don't produce, it doesn't matter if you are/were a prospect along the way.
On the other hand, if a player never was a "top prospect" with BA, and the like through high school/college, very few achieve that "rank/recognition" when they get to professional ball. Luckily, some organizations provide enough opportunity where production allows player to become a "prospect" in the player development department. That, in the end, is what counts.
While I never responded to bbscout, I really value his judgements...for a lot of reasons.

I to went to the web site right after my son received his first invitation to the Perfect Game showcase. Our family was clueless at the time but after some inquiries we sent him to the underclassman showcase in Texas. Son was signed up as a catcher and an outfielder when we checked in. My commenet is a bit different than many of yours but at least I now have the place to make the comment.

First day of the showase (skills) my son struggled. He acted as f he had never seen a baseball before. He was in full gear when his name was called to throw from the outfiled. He trots over in full gear catches the ball and throws. They clock him at 84 mph tops. He jogs back in and throws for POP time. First two practice ones right on target. Next thre timed ones I have no clue where he was throwing but apprently he thought second base had moved. At the end of the day my son was despondent to say the least. I saw one of the men that was running the showcase walk over to my son and he told him that some players show their skills on the first day but he might just be a game catcher that he would shine the next day. Rating of the player or not he kept my sons head in the showcase. Next day my son rocked behind the plate and showed he could play. His first rating by Perfect game was a 7.5 but as my son continued to play and was seen by perfect game his ranking increased. He scholarship and is going to play baseball in college.
So I say to Perfect Game keep up the good work and thank you from this baseball mom for taking the five minutes to talk to a player who for a short time beleived that baseball was not his game. I look forward to this summer when I send my youngest son to Waco for the underclassman.

I suppose we could do an entire thread on bad showcase performances!

My son did the '08 West Coast National this year. He couldn't throw his curveball for a strike.. the same one he's been throwing for strikes all year long. Otherwise he did fine.

If PG has one weakness, it may be in that it is getting a snapshot of the kids in a moment in time. But even so, I believe these guys are expert at seeing a prospect irrespective of current performance.

I for one believe that player's need to get there feet wet with local College camp's and the Regional showcases.
Before they tackle the National showcases.
Get's the nerve's out of the way, and allow's the player's to perform up to there ability's.
PG and other's understand that Player's are nervous, But that is part of the Game.
How does the Player handle themself's under pressure.
Go in with confidence, and have FUN.
That's what it's all about. EH

EH,

I guess its just a different perspective.

I always thought that real pressure was when you had to gun a runner out at the plate from the outfield in a big game.

Or get a big hit when your team needed it in the last inning.

Or make the diving play - and throw the runner out to put a stake in the heart of the rally.

I never thought pressure was running a 60 yard dash against a radar gun - or throwing a ball as hard as you can to a base with no one running there.

I have been in the dugout with lots of kids at showcases - trying to get them to relax and have fun. In my heart of hearts - I dont think it ever really worked. It is almost like they are showdogs. And many are.

I think in Baseball - The true test and the real pressure is having to perform in a game - it is not a radar timed race or radar gunned pitches or SPARQ tests.

That is why I really like going to the good tournaments. Play the game against the best competition you can - thats real pressure. IMO.

You will quickly find out who can play and who is the showdog.

Just my opinion.