Scouts following committed players - Just curious

Players who are adamant they're going to college have signed and passed on college. It's amazing the impact having seven figures waved in a players face may have.

The scouts want to get in front of the kid and explain the benefits of signing versus the pitfalls of a college coach smoking his arm.

There is a poster on this board (not real active anymore) whose son was headed for a top ACC. He was drafted in later rounds and signed for seven figures.

I know a kid who said he would head for a top ACC unless offered X. He didn't get X. But he was offered seven figures. He signed five minutes before the deadline.

All it takes is one person to change his mind. That being said, The player and his parents have likely had home visits with every MLB club and if one scout shows, they all show. Scouts are simply doing their job.

Parents, advisors/agents seldom tip their hand knowing they are a prospective draft pick. They usually follow the money and there are a few clubs that offer college incentives that are part of their contract, in addition to the initial offering.

In the end, baseball is a business and if they can come to terms ($$), he'll likely forego the college experience. He goes in later rounds......he's likely going to college and take his chances of being drafted sooner.

Would you want to be the scout that passed on the kid only to then have the team behind you draft him and have him sign?

I'm adamant about my son going to college, but I'm sure I could be talked out of it.  I saw a poster here a few weeks back talking about dealing with scouts and how to discuss plans and desires.  They recommended that you state your preference of going pro and figure out the money later.  I think the top kids are best advised to continue to express their commitment to their college of choice until such time as the real discussions need to begin.  I would assume that time may be arriving soon.  If he does not entertain any invites to workouts after the high school season, then perhaps he will be removed as an option.

Assuming you are expected to go late 1st round or possibly 2nd round out of high school, how are you supposed to realistically quote some figure (pretty wide range of bonus dollars as you drop down 20-30 spots)?  Are there any known instances where a major high school kid either undervalued or overvalued his worth publicly ahead of the draft?  I'm guessing this might be a real chess game where one does not want to undervalue themselves nor do they necessarily want to slip so far (based solely on bonus signability issues) that they effectively get priced out.  Hopefully the slew of advisers are able to send out well crafted smoke signals and help in these situations.  RJM?

IEBSBL posted:

Would you want to be the scout that passed on the kid only to then have the team behind you draft him and have him sign?

One day the Red Sox were working out Jackie Robinson and Willie Mays. Owner Tom Yawkey told the manager to get those niggers off my field.

Can you imagine the change in baseball history had the Red Sox signed them? Can you imagine the difference in race relations in Boston if Robinson and Mays had become icons of the city?

RJM posted:

IEBSBL posted:

Would you want to be the scout that passed on the kid only to then have the team behind you draft him and have him sign?

One day the Red Sox were working out Jackie Robinson and Willie Mays. Owner Tom Yawkey told the manager to get those niggers off my field.

Can you imagine the change in baseball history had the Red Sox signed them? Can you imagine the difference in race relations in Boston if Robinson and Mays had become icons of the city?

I think you are mixing some known truth with myth.  Please source where Willie Mays and Jackie Robinson were both on the field "trying out" for the Red Sox.

A friend my son played with had committed to an SEC school.  He pitched against my son's HS senior year.  Even though he was committed and made it clear he didn't want to be drafted, there were probably 25 scouts at the game that day.  Keep in mind, he was VERY adamant he was going to his dream school and did not want to be drafted.  Various teams continued to contact him.  They called and asked if he would sign in the 5th round.  No.  Called for the 10th round.  No.  called for the 17th round.  No.  He was drafted in the 34th round anyway - just in case.  He went to school and wound up being drafted in the 19th round after his junior year and signed then.

Point is, just because he told them he didn't want to be drafted, they kept calling on him anyway...

Go44dad posted:

RJM posted:

IEBSBL posted:

Would you want to be the scout that passed on the kid only to then have the team behind you draft him and have him sign?

One day the Red Sox were working out Jackie Robinson and Willie Mays. Owner Tom Yawkey told the manager to get those niggers off my field.

Can you imagine the change in baseball history had the Red Sox signed them? Can you imagine the difference in race relations in Boston if Robinson and Mays had become icons of the city?

I think you are mixing some known truth with myth.  Please source where Willie Mays and Jackie Robinson were both on the field "trying out" for the Red Sox.

I found this: 

That was easy to fix. Legendary black sportswriter Wendell Smith brought three Negro Leaguers to town: .338-hitting 2B Marvin Williams, outfielder Sam Jethroe (1950 NL Rookie of the Year with the Boston Braves)...and rookie shortstop Jackie Robinson. During their workout with the Sox a voice in the distance, widely believed to be Collins', shouted "Get those ******* off the field."

Even after Robinson integrated the majors, the Red Sox rejected black players who were practically dropped in their lap. The general manager of their AA team in Birmingham, Alabama alerted them to a phenomenal prospect on the Birmingham Black Barons whose contract could be bought for only $5,000. Even though the Red Sox' local scout echoed the rave reviews, GM Joe Cronin wasn't interested...and so Willie Mays became a Giant.

Son's teammate, a Sr. when son was a Soph., committed to Utah Soph. Year I think.  (May have been Jr.)  Anyhow, he was committed well before Sr. Year, and the scouts came to Idaho to watch him pitch, visit him at home, many times.  They will come watch even if committed.

Anything in writing to the clubs is very firm, e.g., player writes to MLB club clearly expressing intent to go to college. The UVA commit from the player is very firm as well. Other than that, disinformation is rampant. 

rynoattack posted:

Go44dad posted:

RJM posted:

IEBSBL posted:

Would you want to be the scout that passed on the kid only to then have the team behind you draft him and have him sign?

One day the Red Sox were working out Jackie Robinson and Willie Mays. Owner Tom Yawkey told the manager to get those niggers off my field.

Can you imagine the change in baseball history had the Red Sox signed them? Can you imagine the difference in race relations in Boston if Robinson and Mays had become icons of the city?

I think you are mixing some known truth with myth.  Please source where Willie Mays and Jackie Robinson were both on the field "trying out" for the Red Sox.

I found this: 

That was easy to fix. Legendary black sportswriter Wendell Smith brought three Negro Leaguers to town: .338-hitting 2B Marvin Williams, outfielder Sam Jethroe (1950 NL Rookie of the Year with the Boston Braves)...and rookie shortstop Jackie Robinson. During their workout with the Sox a voice in the distance, widely believed to be Collins', shouted "Get those ******* off the field."

Even after Robinson integrated the majors, the Red Sox rejected black players who were practically dropped in their lap. The general manager of their AA team in Birmingham, Alabama alerted them to a phenomenal prospect on the Birmingham Black Barons whose contract could be bought for only $5,000. Even though the Red Sox' local scout echoed the rave reviews, GM Joe Cronin wasn't interested...and so Willie Mays became a Giant.

 

In the past few years there has been a drive by some to rename Yawkey Way (one of the four streets around Fenway). The comment I paraphrased was from an article a couple of years ago either in a Globe or Herald column. 

Yawkey was always referred to as a southern gentleman. He really wasn't from the south. He moved to South Carolina from Michigan. But there's no doubt he was a racist.

The Yawkey name is in several places in Boston. His widow Jean Yawkey donated millions to medical causes. 

2017LHPscrewball posted:

I'm adamant about my son going to college, but I'm sure I could be talked out of it.  I saw a poster here a few weeks back talking about dealing with scouts and how to discuss plans and desires.  They recommended that you state your preference of going pro and figure out the money later.  I think the top kids are best advised to continue to express their commitment to their college of choice until such time as the real discussions need to begin.  I would assume that time may be arriving soon.  If he does not entertain any invites to workouts after the high school season, then perhaps he will be removed as an option.

Assuming you are expected to go late 1st round or possibly 2nd round out of high school, how are you supposed to realistically quote some figure (pretty wide range of bonus dollars as you drop down 20-30 spots)?  Are there any known instances where a major high school kid either undervalued or overvalued his worth publicly ahead of the draft?  I'm guessing this might be a real chess game where one does not want to undervalue themselves nor do they necessarily want to slip so far (based solely on bonus signability issues) that they effectively get priced out.  Hopefully the slew of advisers are able to send out well crafted smoke signals and help in these situations.  RJM?

What each pick signs for each year is available information. It's one way to calculate what a player should sign for. But the most important action would be to take on an advisor.

The problem with these negotiations is without the proper advice it's the team with proven professionals dealing with a inexperienced kid and his unknowledgeable parents.

Different times then...  Shows how much things have really changed - despite the desire for some to claim that things remain the same. The younger generation should take a historical look at the way things were to appreciate the world now. And to think there is talk about taking slavery and the holocost out of the curriculum in history classes...

If you forget the past, it will repeat itself. 

"Are there any known instances where a major high school kid either undervalued or overvalued his worth publicly ahead of the draft?"

Many many instances of kids who signed for above slot or below slot or who priced themselves out of the market even after being drafted.

One example, is RHP Joe Musgrove who was a supplemental first round pick by Toronto and who signed for far less then slot.  Joe was traded by Toronto to Houston following a slow first few years.  He was Houston's MILB pitcher of the year and is knocking on the MLB door and is now on the forty.

An example of a kid who priced himself out of the market is RHP Cody Poteet. Drafted by the Nats in about the 20th round, he had asked for seven figures, then as the signing deadline approached, dramatically dropped the number, but it was too late. Not to worry, though, as Cody was drafted following his junior college year and is now playing.

Another example is Karsten Whitson who was a first round pick in 2010 by the Padres. The Pads thought they had a deal, but the deal fell through (over 2 mill bonus); Karsten was pitched into the ground as a freshman and after several more injury plagued college years was drafted and signed. For a nominal bonus.  He was released last week.

A few years ago, RHP Brady Aiken, was very firm in his asking price. Houston drafted him as the first pick but refused to pay it (claiming very late in negotiations an arm issue [Brady subsequently needed TJ]) and drafted him anyway and didn't ink him.

Each potential draft pick is a unique story, with unique financial considerations, unique college options, etc. There is no one size fits all (though I have personal knowledge of many, many HS kids who were drafted and signed for fairly low thresholds (300k and down) who were released before they would have been draft eligible had they attended a four year college).

IMO, if a kid has a remote chance of being drafted out of HS, the family should do their thinking and planning as far in advance of the senior baseball season as possible.  Once the circus of that season begins, it's easy to get swept up in the excitement and lose perspective and focus; if you lose those, bad deals can result. Best to think and plan before the pressure builds.

Yes ago when our American team traveled to Australia. This team was coached by Dave La Roche and Jim Lentine [2 former MLB players. On the American team was one of the Sandberg family from Spokane.

He has a scholarship to USC, was drafted #26 the previous June. A left handed hitting OF. Jared after the first game with Jim Lentine help and proceed to hit 7 HR in the next 10 games. After returning I called USC Baseball and mentioned that they should not plan on Jared entering College. He was signed and played minor league baseball. Also on the term was Adam La Roche and four 1st round drafts.

Talk with the scouts, watch their system of evaluating a player. Scouts may "work" the field. One inning watch the pitcher from behind home, next inning from 1st base side and another inning from 3rd base.

Infielders, outfielders are viewed during BP and pregame. When I scout players for Australia, I avoid the "showboat" player.

Bob

<www:goodwillseries.org>

JCG posted:

I have no dog in this fight; I'm just curious.  Yesterday I was at a HS tournament that is considered a big deal around here.  During one game, a RHP/IF  ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America was pitching.  Literally dozens of guns tracked every pitch. 40+ scouts and college coaches watching.  It was pretty impressive.   The event's Twitter feed said he topped out at 96mph.  Now I saw this kid pitch a few weeks ago and there were 20+ pro scouts there that time.  The player is committed to a very good west coast D1 BTW.  Also BTW the kid looked dominant both times.

Before that game I was talking to a friend who knows the kid and his family, and he said no question, the kid is going to college, period.  Here's my question -- if the kid is going to college, wouldn't he have told people that, and wouldn't they stop coming his games and spend their time on somebody who is signable?  So either my friend is wrong, and the kid is at least considering signing, or if a kid is that good, the scouts don't care what he says - they keep watching him just in case he changes his mind. 

Right?

One can be adamant all they want, until someone offers to make you a millionaire.

The draft is a whole process.  Its not as easy to understand but there is a strategy as well, or I would say a method to the madness. If this pitcher is throwing 96 and has one or two other good offerings besides a FB, he isn't going to college, despite what you have heard. 

We were pretty much in favor of son going to college, and most knew it, but they still showed  up. Some teams talked bonus round, asked if he might sign for XXX dollars, but the night of the draft some scouts called and asked one more time.

He went undrafted.

There was a kid in our area who declared he wouldn't sign for less than 800K. He really didn't want to go to college. The first two rounds came and went (typical 800k or more money). After a few rounds a team called and asked if the kid would sign for 400K. The kid said no. A few rounds later another team called offering 200K. The kid said no.

By the time the draft hit round thirty the dad was calling teams back begging to sign for 200K. The teams said no. It was a combination of teams playing hardball and/or they had verbally committed their bonus money.

I know another kid ** who was drafted in the 8th round contingent on him signing for X dollars. He changed his mind after the draft and returned to school for his senior year. He wasn't drafted after senior year. The word gets around when screwing teams. It turned out the kid's heart wasn't into going through the minors. His father was wealthy. He went to work for dad. He eventually took over the business.

** It just dawned on me he was a kid when I was already a dad of two kids. He's forty now. It seems like yesterday.

2017LHPscrewball posted:

I'm adamant about my son going to college, but I'm sure I could be talked out of it.  I saw a poster here a few weeks back talking about dealing with scouts and how to discuss plans and desires.  They recommended that you state your preference of going pro and figure out the money later.  I think the top kids are best advised to continue to express their commitment to their college of choice until such time as the real discussions need to begin.  I would assume that time may be arriving soon.  If he does not entertain any invites to workouts after the high school season, then perhaps he will be removed as an option.

Assuming you are expected to go late 1st round or possibly 2nd round out of high school, how are you supposed to realistically quote some figure (pretty wide range of bonus dollars as you drop down 20-30 spots)?  Are there any known instances where a major high school kid either undervalued or overvalued his worth publicly ahead of the draft?  I'm guessing this might be a real chess game where one does not want to undervalue themselves nor do they necessarily want to slip so far (based solely on bonus signability issues) that they effectively get priced out.  Hopefully the slew of advisers are able to send out well crafted smoke signals and help in these situations.  RJM?

If you are first, second round prospect, you will have a very experienced advisor/agent working to make it happen.

It is good business for the player, scouts and college coaches to be there.  Business climates change everyday.

Goosegg posted:

IMO, if a kid has a remote chance of being drafted out of HS, the family should do their thinking and planning as far in advance of the senior baseball season as possible.  Once the circus of that season begins, it's easy to get swept up in the excitement and lose perspective and focus; if you lose those, bad deals can result. Best to think and plan before the pressure builds.

That's what we called the gaggle of scouts who followed my son's HS teammate to every game he pitched.  (6'4" and threw 93-94 mph).   He eventually was drafted in the 6th round and subsequently signed.  We knew who was pitching when we saw the ~20 scouts all seated behind the backstop.  No program needed. 

Sometimes it works out for the players.  A local player, Max Pentecost, was drafted in the 7th round in 2011by the Rangers.  He declined, went to a local D1 college where he majored in Biochemistry and in his Junior year he was Drafted in the first round by the Blue Jays. 

CaCO3Girl posted:

Sometimes it works out for the players.  A local player, Max Pentecost, was drafted in the 7th round in 2011by the Rangers.  He declined, went to a local D1 college where he majored in Biochemistry and in his Junior year he was Drafted in the first round by the Blue Jays. 

This is not a big secret how it works.

That's why for most do your growing up in college, unless someone wants to pay you lots of money to keep you OUT of college.

Unless a kid is a jaw dropping stud and gets a lot of bonus money he should go to college. If he goes pro he's going to the GCL with a bunch of 16-18 Carribean players where English will be a second language on the team. Or he goes to regular short season to compete against 21 and 22yos.

My son didn't go pro. But at high school graduation he was 6'1, 170. Three years later he was 6'2", 195. Improved size and strength can make a huge difference in success. When kids head off for college ball they tend to pack on at least 20 pounds of muscle.

RJM posted:

Unless a kid is a jaw dropping stud and gets a lot of bonus money he should go to college.

Would you please put some definition to this?

Kids and parents can and sometimes do change their mind about things.

I understand completely why so many adise attending college unless the player gets life changing money.  However we have seen players that might not survive in college.  we have seen players that can't afford college, even with a nice scholarship offer.  We have seen players that live in the lowest end of the poverty line. 

My point is... Your son might look at life changing money as one thing,  while another kid might see life changing money and opportunity as something much less.  Even if it is a long shot of making it to the top and having a career as a player, it still is an opportunity to better yourself.  There are many former players that still make their living in baseball.  There are many that would have had a much different life if it weren't for baseball. So signing is not always the worst decision.

It is always an individual case, not everyone has the same situation in life.  In a perfect world, a good player would come from a successful family, go to college, develop his skills, stay healthy, graduate, sign for $6 million dollars, become an all star and sign a $200 million contract. Not many in that boat!

My kid doesn't need it all!  Not everyone needs to be an all star and sign for $200 million.  Leave that out and sign me up.

joemktg posted:

RJM posted:

Unless a kid is a jaw dropping stud and gets a lot of bonus money he should go to college.

Would you please put some definition to this?

I agree with RJM.  

Not sure if most here know that most HS players will have to spend 4-5 years in milb. And that doesn't mean you will make an MLB roster. Do your homework about life in milb. If your son doesn't get any decent bonus money it will be gone in no time. You need extra income to live.  Will you support him. Will he be willing to go to college later on?  Be very familiar with how the MLB scholarship works.

Two words.  Derek Jeter

I had a great opportunity at a Stanford camp (pitchers/catchers) to hear Stephen Strasburg sit and talk to the campers and answer lots of questions the kids had.  He made one point to the boys that really stuck with me about the college versus pro decision. 

Stephen noted that if a baseball player chooses to go to college, he joins a band of teammates who for several years will be together bonding and working together in the hopes of succeeding as a team, going to the College WS, etc.  He pointed out how many teammates from his days at San Diego State are still a big part of his life despite the fact that he is now a star player. 

Stephen told the kids that once he got drafted and started his career in the minors, it changed immediately.  In the minors, it is all about competing to get to the Show.  Fellow pitchers may be on your team, but they are competing against you and a bunch of other prospects to get moved up to the next level.  The player mindset is all about individual performance and competition.  He admitted he was not good enough to go pro after high school and that he really grew up in college.  But he really emphasized that it was the whole team experience that he cherished most about college and urged the boys to consider that in their decision if they were torn about what to do.

Backstop22 posted:

I had a great opportunity at a Stanford camp (pitchers/catchers) to hear Stephen Strasburg sit and talk to the campers and answer lots of questions the kids had.  He made one point to the boys that really stuck with me about the college versus pro decision. 

Stephen noted that if a baseball player chooses to go to college, he joins a band of teammates who for several years will be together bonding and working together in the hopes of succeeding as a team, going to the College WS, etc.  He pointed out how many teammates from his days at San Diego State are still a big part of his life despite the fact that he is now a star player. 

Stephen told the kids that once he got drafted and started his career in the minors, it changed immediately.  In the minors, it is all about competing to get to the Show.  Fellow pitchers may be on your team, but they are competing against you and a bunch of other prospects to get moved up to the next level.  The player mindset is all about individual performance and competition.  He admitted he was not good enough to go pro after high school and that he really grew up in college.  But he really emphasized that it was the whole team experience that he cherished most about college and urged the boys to consider that in their decision if they were torn about what to do.

He is 100 percent accurate.

Son has a lot of friends he has made over the years. His closest friends are former college roomates, his best friend from Clemson.  

joes87 posted:

Two words.  Derek Jeter

There are not too many kids out there who could be another Jeter.

TPM posted:

joemktg posted:

RJM posted:

Unless a kid is a jaw dropping stud and gets a lot of bonus money he should go to college.

Would you please put some definition to this?

I agree with RJM.  

Not sure if most here know that most HS players will have to spend 4-5 years in milb. And that doesn't mean you will make an MLB roster. Do your homework about life in milb. If your son doesn't get any decent bonus money it will be gone in no time. You need extra income to live.  Will you support him. Will he be willing to go to college later on?  Be very familiar with how the MLB scholarship works.

I'm only looking to quantify jaw dropping stud and lots of bonus money. 1.1-1.5? First 30? 1st plus compensatory? Two rounds? $1MM? $1.5MM? $5MM?

As the question is considered, take a look at this chart recently published in Baseball America that focuses on HS IFs and OFs (my interest):

Image not found.

Jaw dropping money means different things to different people.

Personally, I don't think a number can be placed on son missing out on college, but he played for a program in the ACC.  

It doesn't really matter what we think but what a team feels you are worth. Most players and their parents feel they are worth much more than they really are.  

Also, unless you fall within those 30, most position players should get their at bats in college. 

A friend's son got drafted out of HS.  He would have been higher, but he was telling teams he was going to college.  He also had a "number" that it would take to sign him.  This was 3 or 4 years ago when the new "slotting" process went into effect.  There was so much confusion as to how it worked that it seems like teams didn't even completely understand it.  He didn't get drafted on the first day....and by the start of the second day the "slot" money was well below where he had told teams he needed to be.   He was actually in his car....driving to college when he got a call saying he had been drafted....and they could come up with his number due to some of the first day guys being "unsignable".  He pulled over...called his dad, and based on the fact that he was already on his way to school, he decided to go.   He got drafted again last summer after his junior year and is now playing single A after a summer in the rookie league.  He actually ended up with less money than he could have originally gotten, but has 3 years of school in and is happy he did it that way.

TPM posted:

joes87 posted:

Two words.  Derek Jeter

There are not too many kids out there who could be another Jeter.

Yes but take a look at what happened to him coming out of HS. Went 6th in the draft as it was generally thought he was going to college. The Astros head scout actually quite over their passing on him in the draft. I don't think anyone in the MLB is going to take that type of approach to a player again. 

Here's my philosophy. If it's about the money, go to school, if it isn't sign.  Don't compare what happened to Jeter as the draft system is completely different now. So is scouting.

If a HS player is willing to spend 4-5 years developing in milb go for it. If you are good and have talent, do your growing up in college.  I know of a position player drafted 4 years ago, first round got life changing money but also had a great opportunity to play at one of if not the top program in the country.  Saw his folks at a HS event a few months ago.  Never realized just how difficult professional ball is. Probably would have been a better choice to grow up in college, in the limelight and success of bigtime college baseball. The money just made his living situation much easier.  Mom kept one eye on him constantly.  Although special treatment is extended to the money guys, they are still young and have no coaches to watch over you, unless mom and dad a do.

Did you know Bruce Harper's folks lived with him? Kind of gives you a clue about growing up in milb.

Am I pro college over sign ingredients after HS. You bet.  More than likely because, well, I know how it is.

Once again, try to get an insight on life in milb out of HS. If you have an advisor ask those questions. If you wish, you can send a pm.

I have no poem telling it like it is.  Seriously.

TPM, I don't disagree with you.  My Jeter comment was related back to the OPs original question.  Why scouts still follow a player who has committed to college and is saying he is going there rather then pro.  The nut of it is the Pro guys don't want to miss out if the guy changes his mind the day before the draft.  

  It would take a little bit to sway 2018 from Vanderbilt.  I'm not saying it could not be done, but it would take some cabbage, and I don't know if they would pay it.  I think attending Vandy and maturing as a person and player will make him better prepared for Milb.

Vanderbilt is a pretty special place and comparing 3 years there to 3 years in A ball or Ad(A) .....  traveling on a bus you can sleep on to LSU to play on national tv or playing minor league ball in the bad lands ...... 

Chances are good you could get drafted again after 3 years ........... I am sure we will talk to many people that have picked both paths.  2018 was hitting 92 last week....so maybe he will get the chance to decide. 

Well they knew my son was going to go to college but they still followed him.  

The player's  commitment actually helps, not hurts. If you are committed to a program in the top 25 teams your chips are worth more.

In sons case he had almost a full ride to college, but he was not projected as a first rounder maybe 6-10 round. Drafted out of 3 years of college in the second. Didn't have to spend time in complex ball or low A for a few years. My point.