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There’s so much room for it to wrong at this age. I started a 13u USSSA Majors team with some of the best all stars from our eighteen league LL district. The three assistants and I played college ball. We knew the game. We kept the team together for three years until several moved on to 17u teams with college contacts.

There can be a lot of daddy ball at this age with dad coaches who think they know the game and believe their kid is a stud. These teams tend to be in disarray for a year or two until they ultimately implode. 

You can tryout for a 13u academy team. They tend to be expensive. Playing time tends to be equal due to the cost. A friend told me his son got frustrated losing so many games in the late innings due to large rosters when the subs came in. If nothing else with academy teams there’s usually good instruction. Being on a 13u or 14u team means nothing without talent in terms of sticking with the academy at recruiting levels.

Some kids think they’re trying out for the A travel team and get stuck on the B team with mediocre players at the same cost of the A team. They also often charge for tryouts. 

The best scenario if you can’t put together your own quality team is to be pursued  by a quality program rather than pursuing them. 

In any case figure what’s important to yor son and you and ask questions. At an academy, if you see names you recognize on the alumni wall it might mean they took one lesson there or played one tournament as a ringer rather than a team regular.

Due to building my own team I laid out what can go wrong looking for teams based on what i witnessed. I’m sure here are posters here who can better address what went well in these curcumstances.

Good luck.

Last edited by RJM

Around here the organizations post tryouts online.   Attend and perform well and your player will be selected. 

If your player is a legitimate STUD, you could attend a PBR/PG showcase and teams will seek him out.  Not many unknown stud players out there with that level of skill.

Thirteen is when players start to weed themselves out.  Other activities, competition, puberty, etc.  

Welcome to HSBBWeb.  Lots of experience in the heads of members and lots of knowledge in old posts.

At this age I would make sure you find a team he likes with good coaching. If he is good enough, the better programs will invite him to guest play and eventually offer him a full time roster spot.  

If your son is offered a spot or a tryout, I would find out when the team practices and go watch. I've seen coaches hold an "open" practice/tryout and tons of kids show up. They have a handful of really good coaches and trainers there for that one practice and you never see them the rest of the season. Look for kids standing around or kids engaged and getting tons of reps. 

Adams Baseball posted:

thx folks-good advice! We're from a "smaller market" but may have to travel to San Antonio or Houston. Would rather get on a team here in Corpus Christi, but might have to form our own. Anyway, we'll play out this season in "Juniors" Little League, and take it from there. Thx again for your help!

We are also in a small market. When my son got to the big field we drove 30-45 minutes to try out for some other teams. It was like a whole new world for him. Better players, better coaches, better everything. The drive can be a pain, especially when there are tests the next day at school. But my son has had the most fun I've seen over the past 2 years.

At this point in time the coaching, skills and connections are what you need to be looking for. It is highly doubtful that you will be able to do a better job working with your own son and what essentially will be a bunch of his friends to accomplish the needed tasks. It is possible...but you are huge underdog. 

You need to go find an organization that fits your budget and the baseball skills and time commitment you and your son want to make. It may be year round, it may be multiple workouts week, it may be individual lessons, it may be small group workouts in the offseason, it may include conditioning and strength training. 

The recruiting time line starts at 14u if you son is a top 1% kid, it doesn't start until 17u if he is a mid level D3 kid and it can start at any point in between depending on player and position. The truth is you don't know what you have or how to go about getting where he need to go if he is that good....

You could talk to your HS coaches for reference, search local tournaments for names to research, go out and network people who have been through the travel circuit with older children and are doing it again, google searches are just the beginning not the end. Contact programs of high reputation and talk to them, ask them what they do and how the operate. You will start to see trends and ideology that you agree or don't agree with. 

Find some local people you trust to get you to a network of people who know the local scene and get some recommendations - that in my opinion should the place to start. 

I am in the area north of you. My youngest is in the same age group. We have played a lot of tournaments in the Corpus area. Teams in that area like in most places, go from win at all costs to friends getting together to have a good time playing ball. Youngest left little league when he was 7/8. We have been on a few different teams and it took a while to find the right fit. For us the best fit has been a team that focuses on development. IMO find a team with really good instruction and tries to play against teams that challenge the boys. Wins and Losses mean little to nothing at 13u (other than some kids hate to always lose) again IMO. 15, 16, 17u is where the better players get picked up for the larger tournaments sometimes with kids they have never met and still practice with private coaches or their local team.

 I do have a few tips for looking for a team, (some may agree or disagree). Just because a coach has played in college, minors, or is a scout does not always mean they are good coaches.  The better coaches have the ability to breakdown what they are trying to teach so the player can understand what they want them to do and why. They are not afraid to try new or different things with a player to find what works for them. Not all players are the same, but some coaches try to teach like they are. If you find a team that you think could be a fit. Ask if your son can attend a practice or go watch a practice. Look to see how the practice is ran and look for a few things:

 Is there a lot of standing around? If all the boys are standing at SS and a coach is hitting them grounders there is way too much down time.

Watch how the boys are warming up. Is it structured, are the boys taking it seriously, or are the goofing around?Are the boys working in small groups?

Are the boys working at different positions?

Are the boys engaged and getting reps?

Are the coaches engaged and providing instruction?

Is the coach using the right amount of discipline you are comfortable with?

How are the parents acting (you will be spending a lot of time with these people)?

Are the parents yelling instructions to the kids from the fence (bad sign)?

 The last time we changed teams, we went to 7 different tryouts, picked a few that looked like a good fit, went and watched practices, asked the coaches about their background and coaching philosophy, talked to parents to see if they were happy with the teams (what they like or dislike about the team/organization).

 Best bet would be to try and tryout with a teams in Aug if they will play fall ball, or Dec for the spring. That is when most of the teams are looking in our area.

I'd suggest you contact a baseball facility in Corpus...They will have names & numbers for teams...Get schedules & go watch a few teams play to get an idea of what players & coaches are like...Contact the HS coach where your son will go to HS  (or another strong HS program, ie. Calallen, Memorial, etc)...He more than likely knows who is who in the area...

Do lots of homework! You want a coach & team that shares YOUR philosophy, values, goals, etc....someone you can trust to mentor your son...

i'm a distant "neighbor", in Rockport...retired from Dallas area...

Wow, lots of good information-thx to all!!!! I am/was just clueless on how to go about getting try-outs for my son. I will follow the advice on contacting Maurucci ( i know they were active a couple of years ago, but not sure about 2020), and i'll call some of the facilities (maybe closer to August). A family member recommended Banditos in Houston, but that's a long drive if we plan on alot of games up there. I do plan on having him attend a "try-out/showcase for PG in Tomball next Feb( 2021) as i think he'll be ready by then. Should be fun. Thanks again everybody! if you have any Coaches names/Team names, in the Corpus area, please let me know. 

Adams Baseball posted:

Wow, lots of good information-thx to all!!!! I am/was just clueless on how to go about getting try-outs for my son. I will follow the advice on contacting Maurucci ( i know they were active a couple of years ago, but not sure about 2020), and i'll call some of the facilities (maybe closer to August). A family member recommended Banditos in Houston, but that's a long drive if we plan on alot of games up there. I do plan on having him attend a "try-out/showcase for PG in Tomball next Feb( 2021) as i think he'll be ready by then. Should be fun. Thanks again everybody! if you have any Coaches names/Team names, in the Corpus area, please let me know. 

Wish you guys the best moving forward, but I would caution you on showcasing for PG next year. Not only is the jump from most local little leagues to PG competition eye opening, you need to make sure he has a measurable/tool that matters before dropping that kind of money. Most kids don't have this til they mature a little (usually older than 14) yet parents still seem to sign them up.

Got me thinking:  

So to further this line of thought, I just went back into my 2025's PG account. He has been invited to 12 (last I checked it was 5) different upcoming 14u showcases in 2020. None of which we plan on attending. After all he is just starting to hit puberty (turns 13 in March).

At mooossst he projects, but who can really say that about a soon to turn 13 year old  ????  I guess one could argue that it would show progression over the years. But who really cares the road taken to check the boxes? Everybody matures at different rates and will travel different paths. Just a little common sense goes a long way.

ReluctantO'sFan posted:

Got me thinking:  

So to further this line of thought, I just went back into my 2025's PG account. He has been invited to 12 (last I checked it was 5) different upcoming 14u showcases in 2020. None of which we plan on attending. After all he is just starting to hit puberty (turns 13 in March).

At mooossst he projects, but who can really say that about a soon to turn 13 year old  ????  I guess one could argue that it would show progression over the years. But who really cares the road taken to check the boxes? Everybody matures at different rates and will travel different paths. Just a little common sense goes a long way.

No college coach is going to care about anything in a PG profile when a kid is 13.  Some studs may start to put up notable numbers at 14u but those are very few and far between.  Save your money and spend it on training and nutrition.  

22and25 posted:
ReluctantO'sFan posted:

Got me thinking:  

So to further this line of thought, I just went back into my 2025's PG account. He has been invited to 12 (last I checked it was 5) different upcoming 14u showcases in 2020. None of which we plan on attending. After all he is just starting to hit puberty (turns 13 in March).

At mooossst he projects, but who can really say that about a soon to turn 13 year old  ????  I guess one could argue that it would show progression over the years. But who really cares the road taken to check the boxes? Everybody matures at different rates and will travel different paths. Just a little common sense goes a long way.

No college coach is going to care about anything in a PG profile when a kid is 13.  Some studs may start to put up notable numbers at 14u but those are very few and far between.  Save your money and spend it on training and nutrition.  

A local kid that often was a guest player on the travel team I coached was the best player in Texas when he was 13.  He never got any bigger and didn’t get a lot better. Had a good (but not great) HS career and was recruited to a mid-major based on past reputation.  Was redshirted and gone after one year. Landed at a prominent JuCo and can’t get on the field there either. Moral of the story? What a kid does at 13 means nothing and often isn’t at all projectable. 

I know there might be haters, but LL isn't really baseball..... when they play on such short fields/fences, and can't steal, no pick off moves, etc. Big changes for the LL kids when they get to Travel Ball.  Our 11U team would have cleaned up LLWS teams playing on 9U fields with 215 ft fences. Just saying.

As others have mentioned, it doesn't matter before 14 or so. My son was on the #10 Travel team in the country at 11U, we have a wall of plastic trophies, and stupid rings. None of that matters. Not one single coach or scout asked about or cared about any of that stuff. haha. 

When looking for a team at 13 and beyond, you want go to one with LOTS of pitching. That way they don't have to rely and abuse only a few kids. Trust me it happens. We say a 14U team pitch their kid 142 pitches! 142! We were about to call Child Protective Services. That is abuse.

But on our Travel team, we had lots of arms and that allows you to go deeper in travel tourneys and weekends. Definitely get in a program that carries arms and kids with them.....

Team Citius is good down that way and recruits all over (if they're still around).

Banditos is good, but also have a huge stratification of teams and skills and like others, will recruit your checkbook. 

San Antonio Colts is now part of Lonestar Baseball Club (where we were from North Austin/Central A Team).

Plenty of big names to pick from and try out for. Most already had their tryouts but call and ask around. 

Good luck!

Any baseball not on a 60/90 field isn’t really baseball. When I created a 13u USSSA Majors team from top talent in our eighteen league LL district I wasn’t just looking at performance. I was looking at potential. I was looking for kids we could groom into quality high school players. After getting rid of a couple of attitudes heading into 14u the entire roster played college ball at some level.

I took the athletic 5’2” thirteen year old with the 6’2” dad over the dominating 5’8” pitcher with the 5’4” dad. The 5’2” kid played college ball at 6’2”. The 5’8” kid washed out at high school JV level. He’s still 5’8”. His dad wanted to know if pro scouts attend 13u games. He thought he was recruiting me. I had no interest. 

adbono posted:
22and25 posted:
ReluctantO'sFan posted:

 

 Moral of the story? What a kid does at 13 means nothing and often isn’t at all projectable. 

My thought here is although it sounds good in spirit - it is factually inaccurate.

Yes there are outliers and everyone will have a story to tell about "this one kid in our area" but the truth is most kids who are the studs at 12u and 13u are also the studs at 17u. The order will switch around and there will certainly be additions and subtractions to the list but as a statement "often isn't at all projectable" is just incorrect. 

I will agree the picture isn't as clear as it will be at 15u but the data is out there. PG has several posts from years back speaking to this and in whatever his exact words were the data was clear. 

old_school posted:
adbono posted:
22and25 posted:
ReluctantO'sFan posted:

 

 Moral of the story? What a kid does at 13 means nothing and often isn’t at all projectable. 

My thought here is although it sounds good in spirit - it is factually inaccurate.

Yes there are outliers and everyone will have a story to tell about "this one kid in our area" but the truth is most kids who are the studs at 12u and 13u are also the studs at 17u. The order will switch around and there will certainly be additions and subtractions to the list but as a statement "often isn't at all projectable" is just incorrect. 

I will agree the picture isn't as clear as it will be at 15u but the data is out there. PG has several posts from years back speaking to this and in whatever his exact words were the data was clear. 

I don't know much about baseball, but I do know data analysis.  I wanted to answer this exact question.  My son pitches so I gathered all the pitching history for:

- all the committed pitchers

- 2018 thru 2024 graduation years

- all power 5 conferences, and some other schools.

What the data shows is that the pitching velocities for these schools even in 7th and 8th grades make these kids "elite".  Example: Vanderbilt committed pitchers averaged 75 MPH in the summer before their 7th grade year of school (normally 12u some 11u).  The standard deviation was 5 MPH.  If a kid is throwing 60 MPH in 12u, he has a 0.000024% shot of going to Vandy.    In English, the odds are about the same as winning the lottery (Actually a little worse).

Now I agree, Vandy is the best of the best.  Lets look at a respectable Div II school, Colorado Mesa.  Their committed pitchers averaged 73 MPH in the summer before their 7th grade year of school.  The standard deviation was 7 MPH.  If a kid is throwing 60 MPH in 12u, he has a 4.33% shot of going to Mesa.    In English, the odds are about 1 in 2300. 

What this data says to me is that Old School is right.  Again this is just stats and someones genes and work ethic can sometimes beat the odds, but of those that do they will be true outliers.

Playing the averages vs outliers....  Where and who is capturing Pitching Velos in 7th grade? 

The issue with above yes there are kids that are good early and keep getting better. There are also way more kids that peak early and STOP. LOTS of kids were studs in 7th & 8th and or 6 foot, but then stopped growing/progressing, etc. Those are the kids trying to commit early while they have an edge, but get dropped later, when everyone catches up and eventually passes them.

No one expects you to be 6 foot in 7th grade. 5'4" is great.... but now you're a Junior or Senior and you're still 5'4" not saying it is impossible. But like above, better off getting a lottery ticket...

Last edited by Eokerholm

I have a hard time buying into this. There is just way too much grey area to cover-up, plus show me a true 11 year old throwing 75+ and I'll show you the definition of the 1%ers. Coached a lot of games through these ages and only 1 kid comes to mind, and technically he was 12 with good birth-date. Nevertheless he could bring it. Overwhelmed the bottom half of our line-up but the top got to him (drop 10 bats and short fences skewed the results of that game)   

I guess it really depends on what you consider a "Stud". Many people lump a lot of kids into that pot. Does the 5'7" 150lb 12/13 year old with facial hair a girlfriend in high school falls into that "Stud" category, even though people fail to realize that he is already bigger than his parents. 

Ultimately, I just don't see the reason to send my kid to a showcase at his young age. Would it be just to measure a 75mph fastball? Seems like a huge waste of money to me. Why not wait til he matures and can have a chance to post real numbers that matter? 

just my 2 cents 

Around_The_Horn posted:
old_school posted:
adbono posted:
22and25 posted:
ReluctantO'sFan posted:

 

 Moral of the story? What a kid does at 13 means nothing and often isn’t at all projectable. 

My thought here is although it sounds good in spirit - it is factually inaccurate.

Yes there are outliers and everyone will have a story to tell about "this one kid in our area" but the truth is most kids who are the studs at 12u and 13u are also the studs at 17u. The order will switch around and there will certainly be additions and subtractions to the list but as a statement "often isn't at all projectable" is just incorrect. 

I will agree the picture isn't as clear as it will be at 15u but the data is out there. PG has several posts from years back speaking to this and in whatever his exact words were the data was clear. 

I don't know much about baseball, but I do know data analysis.  I wanted to answer this exact question.  My son pitches so I gathered all the pitching history for:

- all the committed pitchers

- 2018 thru 2024 graduation years

- all power 5 conferences, and some other schools.

What the data shows is that the pitching velocities for these schools even in 7th and 8th grades make these kids "elite".  Example: Vanderbilt committed pitchers averaged 75 MPH in the summer before their 7th grade year of school (normally 12u some 11u).  The standard deviation was 5 MPH.  If a kid is throwing 60 MPH in 12u, he has a 0.000024% shot of going to Vandy.    In English, the odds are about the same as winning the lottery (Actually a little worse).

Now I agree, Vandy is the best of the best.  Lets look at a respectable Div II school, Colorado Mesa.  Their committed pitchers averaged 73 MPH in the summer before their 7th grade year of school.  The standard deviation was 7 MPH.  If a kid is throwing 60 MPH in 12u, he has a 4.33% shot of going to Mesa.    In English, the odds are about 1 in 2300. 

What this data says to me is that Old School is right.  Again this is just stats and someones genes and work ethic can sometimes beat the odds, but of those that do they will be true outliers.

Being that several of us are skeptical of this data, can you post up a handful of these PG profiles you used to collect this data?  I have built a spreadsheet similar to yours for several power 5 schools.  Kids that are currently freshman in college have very little PG data prior to 14U, at least in my experience.  

 

I just looked through the tourney results for the 2019 PG 12U World Series and 2019 PG 12U Series Classic.  Most of the kids have no velo listed in their profile, even the "event top performers" for pitching.  All that I did find with data showing a fastball above 70 mph had already turned 13 on the date of the event where the velo was collected.  This supports what most of is have noticed throug our own youth baseball journey, the early bloomers and birthdays just inside the cuttof date for an age group often dominate 10U-14U until the puberty fairy visits everyone and the playing field gets leveled.  

Last edited by 22and25

“The Meal Ticket” as his father named him became a legend in our LL district starting at eleven. In other leagues we heard stories of a 70 mph fastball ,no hitters and rocket home runs to rooftops across the street. His all star team didn’t advance out of pool play that year. 

The next year one game from advancing out of pool play I figured I better check out the kid as we were lining up to face them in the Finals rounds. What I saw was a 12yo coming 75 mph down Main Street. I expected to see a lefty hitter since the rooftops across the street were in right. What I saw was a big, strong kid who swung like a rusty gate. The opposing pitcher threw nine curses in the dirt and struck him out three times. 

In talking with the president of the league he played I was advised to stay away from the kid due to the dad. Dad was famous for getting into it with coaches, openly blaming teammates for loses and calling pitches from the stands. He didn’t know the game. 

Dad and the wife approached me. They heard about the 13u team I was forming. His league’s president had created a two strikes situation with the background he provided. Strike three was the dad was 5’4” and the mother 5’. The Meal Ticket never lost a LL, LL all star game or CYO game. He never played travel. No one would touch him due to the dad. There were also rumors dad had tossed bodies in the swamp by the airport. I believe it was just a joke about his profession (think offer you can’t refuse). 

The Meal Ticket washed out of baseball on JV’ soph year of high school at 5’8” with a below 80 fastball. I know about the kid going forward. Through a former travel teammate who played LL with The Meal Ticket my son became adult golf buddies with him. 

The Meal Ticket is an outlier. Despite his obnoxious father the kid grew up to be a great guy. Despite how scary looking his parents are the kid should be a male model. 

TerribleBPthrower posted:

It's funny reading some of these recent posts. It reminded me of when we took our son to some of the 2023 tryouts. He was small at the time, maybe 5'4" at best and 95lbs. Every single coach I met asked how tall I was (I'm 6'2" and the shortest male in the family). Fast forward to his freshman season and he is 5'10" and up to 127lbs. 

At 13u we (team I organized and coached) played in a local travel tournament hosted by a nationally ranked private school. After my son (5’2” 100 at the time) had good games at short and in center the head coach approached me (6’1”) with one important question. How tall is his mother? 

Last edited by RJM

Just add a little more since you mentioned Vanderbilt specifically.  Here is the PG profile data available for the current starting 4 pitchers for this spring, showing the first entry for each of them that includes a velocity.

 

Name                       date   age     velo

Mason Hickman     2014   15u     83 mph

Kumar Rocker         2015  15u     88 mph

Jake Eder                  2014  15u     83 mph

Jack Leiter                2016  16u     85 mph

 

None of these 4 have any PG velo data prior to their 15u season.  From this limited sample I would say being in the low to mid 80's in the summer after your freshman year is far more predictive, relative to your chances to pitch at Vandy, than anything you did at 12U.

 

I believe there is a regular contributor here who's son is a pitcher at Vandy now.  It would be interesting to know if he even knows what his kid's velo was at age 12.

Last edited by 22and25

How much do these 14U PG showcases cost?  PG says that this data is useful to colleges and MLB; I think if they want to track kids earlier, they should be paying the kids to come!  Performing in a showcase at 13U or 14U cannot possibly benefit a kid at all - if he's good enough at 15U or 16U, he will be recruited then.  It's only really worth doing a PG or PBR showcase when you already have the metrics to turn heads, not to track your progress.  Are any colleges going to care that your velo goes up every year from age 14?  When you hit 90 mph, that's when they'll care.  Before that, it's a moneymaker for PG; why would a parent buy into it?

I didn’t see the value in showing anything until after growing and having some weight behind the height. For my son it wasn’t until post soph summer.

Playing 16u summer after freshman year at 5’11” 135 he was invited to play for a highly regarded 17u team the following year. That summer I sent him to an inexpensive local college showcase style camp to get a feel for the process. I figured the weight would follow the height before the next summer. It did. He was 6’ 160 post soph summer. 

It would have been absurd to do a thing in 14u when he started the season at 5’4” 120. He was growing that summer. There were some awkward movement/moments. 

The summer heading into freshman year of high school his sister was 5’10” 135. 8th grade was her big growth year (5’2” to 5’10”). Picture a giraffe getting to it’s feet and running while standing on ice. 

Last edited by RJM

It is always interesting to see the response of those whose views are in direct opposition of presented data.  This post was dead for about a day, then after my post there is a flurry of action.  Usually a sign of some sort of emotion.  I will not respond to all the comments directly, but I will respond to some of the questions here:

1) Questioning the data (always the norm when you don't like the data) - I will not give out individual information on any specific person.  All the data is public information if you look for it you to can find it.  Specifically to the 4 Vandy pitchers, yes that is exactly what I have, if you want Vandy 7th grade data you can find some in the 2020, 2021, 2023 commits.  Yes, they have not walked onto campus yet, but their data is there and it tells us something.

2) Success Bias - Generally this argument goes, "Well yes your data is looking at the top performers, your only getting the top 1-2%.  What about the others?"  True, I said that the majority of my data comes from Power 5 conferences.  Only 2% of high school players play DI.  The Power 5 get the pick of the litter of that 2%.  Now the flip side of this is that there could be a runt early on and could become a giant by the end of high school.  That is true too.  There is no growth police.  But the data does not play that out.  If it was a common occurrence then the data would show that, but it doesn't.  The average would be lower in the 50's or 60's or with a much greater standard deviation.  But that is not what the data shows.  Sorry.

3) Throwing hard early is not a guarantee.  That is absolutely true.  I never stated that it did.  What it does do, is give more of an indicator that the player is on track. That is all.  Nothing more nothing less.   

4) Humor - Then there are always those that use humor to shield themselves.  It is a normal coping mechanism.

Something I learned and find fascinating.  I was at the 2019 PG WS that was mentioned.  At the time of the tournament the velo's for the top performers was listed.  But as you pointed out, they are no longer there.  I imagine this is PG trying to comply with COPPA regulations maybe. I don't know.  However, you can still see the velo's if you go in to DiamondKast and look at the individual pitches.   

 

Around_The_Horn posted:

It is always interesting to see the response of those whose views are in direct opposition of presented data.  This post was dead for about a day, then after my post there is a flurry of action.  Usually a sign of some sort of emotion.  I will not respond to all the comments directly, but I will respond to some of the questions here:

1) Questioning the data (always the norm when you don't like the data) - I will not give out individual information on any specific person.  All the data is public information if you look for it you to can find it.  Specifically to the 4 Vandy pitchers, yes that is exactly what I have, if you want Vandy 7th grade data you can find some in the 2020, 2021, 2023 commits.  Yes, they have not walked onto campus yet, but their data is there and it tells us something.

2) Success Bias - Generally this argument goes, "Well yes your data is looking at the top performers, your only getting the top 1-2%.  What about the others?"  True, I said that the majority of my data comes from Power 5 conferences.  Only 2% of high school players play DI.  The Power 5 get the pick of the litter of that 2%.  Now the flip side of this is that there could be a runt early on and could become a giant by the end of high school.  That is true too.  There is no growth police.  But the data does not play that out.  If it was a common occurrence then the data would show that, but it doesn't.  The average would be lower in the 50's or 60's or with a much greater standard deviation.  But that is not what the data shows.  Sorry.

3) Throwing hard early is not a guarantee.  That is absolutely true.  I never stated that it did.  What it does do, is give more of an indicator that the player is on track. That is all.  Nothing more nothing less.   

4) Humor - Then there are always those that use humor to shield themselves.  It is a normal coping mechanism.

Something I learned and find fascinating.  I was at the 2019 PG WS that was mentioned.  At the time of the tournament the velo's for the top performers was listed.  But as you pointed out, they are no longer there.  I imagine this is PG trying to comply with COPPA regulations maybe. I don't know.  However, you can still see the velo's if you go in to DiamondKast and look at the individual pitches.   

 

As many have pointed out your data is not comprehensive and doesn’t tell the whole story. Some may find it interesting but you can’t build a premise on it. 

Scroll back up and read Adbono and Eockerholm response to your post and you'll might start to see the flaws in your case. They put an extra variable in your equation that completely changes the outcomes. The funny thing is I don't really disagree with your premise that most really good players were also really good when they were younger. Makes a lot of sense! However really good doesn't mean a 75+ fastball at 11/12u. If that was the case, then I could conclude that there would't be enough players to fill the Majors let alone colleges. Also you really haven't produced much data as asked by 22and25. I feel the need to tell you that you are on a forum that is comprised of many 1st hand accounts. 

And by the way I'm flattered to think I made #4 on your list (or maybe I'm just coping instead of having a good time) 2nd thought (why do have to write so angry - do you have ineffective coping as well)

Why is it surprising that schools which recruit ninth and tenth graders go after the hardest throwing ninth and tenth graders?

That's their "formula."

What percentage of those offers are consummated?  

Does anyone doubt that those schools would tender an offer to a junior throwing 93 - regardless of the number of commits it had at that point?

 

Last edited by Goosegg

For the parents following this thread: control what you can control  - and that isn't size.

13 years old. 5' 4", 115 lbs. Every day, every place, buckets of balls. Never did hit all that well, but the discipline to do that work for incremental improvement is what develops a player in the long run.

He was 55 - 60 mph. Threw 360 days/yr, every place, freezing weather, high altitude, under trees, on vacation, at home, visiting relatives, anywhere there was space. 

That's what gets you there - work, work, and more work. And encouragement, encouragement, encouragement. With an occasional (figurative) kick in the behind.

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It’s not just about pitchers and velocity numbers, it is broad based statement. If you take the top 20 12u kids in a local little league and track them to 17u well over half will almost certainly be the same names if they keep playing. It won’t be 100% but he numbers are overwhelming. 

this isn’t an opinion it is just true. The numbers will skew higher every year older that you start. It is a funnel, probably only 5 of those 20 play in college at all and 1 or 2 in D1.... it isn’t about the outliers 

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