Showcase Question

Your boy sounds similar to mine, difference being that mine is a 2013 and a lefty. Mine never has and never will probably throw very hard. PG has him at 81 tops and the highest I have seen him hit was 83. His "out" pitch is his change up.

This was just my thinking, so take it for what it is worth.

My son was seen as a horrible pitcher when doing indoor winter showcases. He did a PBR last winter and hit 78 I believe. They have him ranked so low it is embarrassing. I do give them credit for noticing that his change up is his best pitch. But throw him on a portable mound in a warehouse and he looks rough compared to the guys who can throw harder. Odd to me that when they clock these guys, they dont seem to notice where it ends up.

But when he threw at an outdoor showcase in May of the previous year, he did much better. You could see that he could PITCH, and not just throw hard. He got people out, while a lot of the harder throwers couldnt throw strikes. At the same outdoor showcase this past May, he really got more interest from that than anything. Honestly he blew away a lot of pitchers that PG and PBR had ranked high in our area.

My advise, for what its worth, is to wait until this summer to try to attend some where he can face live hitters and show scouts what he can really do. He will have another year of high school ball under his belt and more experience to shine.

And I wouldnt wait until he is hitting upper 80's, you never know if he will ever get there. I dont think mine will.

To the extent that a showcase evaluation can provide an unbiased opinion on what level of college baseball you might fit with some concrete statistics to back it up, I think it is a worthy endeavor.

It's also a good idea to get on a playing field and see just what the competition looks like. Also, as a pitcher the showcase is not strictly a mph competition. You do face several hitters and you can show command of more than the fastball during that phase.

But, the evaluations for pitchers are highly weighted toward arm strength meaning that the higher the velocity the better the grade in general so with that in mind if you take the field with realistic expectations then I think that the possible connections with appropriate level colleges make it worth at least participating one time. I have seen instances where attending multiple showcases over periods of time show a definite increase in both arm strength and skill which in and of itself is beneficial.

I am certain you will get a more than adequate response to this question from some very knowledgeable people on this forum.

I wouldn't go to a PG showcase until his velocity is up. He will likely get a rating he won't find encouraging or helpful.

In fact, as a sophomore this is a great winter to focus on doing what he needs to do to get better. Bank that showcase money for later, or spend it on lessons!

These showcases are like a permanent record of velocity. If the velocity is something that will excite coaches, then go.

any pitcher below 85 should save his money and not go to showcases.
there are still gates that open up to college rosters
jmo...

Your son should also work on keeping his grades as high as possible and start thinking about SAT/ACTs. Good academic #'s will keep many many more options open, which is crucial for players who are not going to be PG "10"s.

I agree with most of what has been said. However, nobody has mentioned the kid's size/frame. If your son is 6'3", and lanky with easy arm action he could still get a decent rating based on his projectability. Now, if he is 5'5" with a max delivery, that would be different. Besides, a soph at 80 is not so bad. So if he has the frame and body type, even with an 80 max, he could still do well.

I looked at the PG reports and there was a kid who in december of his sophomore season threw 77 and received a 7.0, which is a nice rating. Another soph at 79 scored a 7.0. Another one topped at 80 and scored a 7.5.

Good luck!

Thanks for the advice! Son is 6’ 175 but likely will not get much taller. I agree that a 15 yo throwing 80 is pretty good but he’s not up with the few “freak” 15 yo’s throwing 90.

Agree with twotex – spend the next year practicing and working out. We’re in no hurry. No one is going to recruit a soph. Not many anyway. He still has a lot of maturing to do. Maybe he’ll get there, maybe he won’t.

Being a lefty will certainly help your son out. Mine is pretty much in the same boat but a RHP that throws mid 70's but has multiple pitches and great command.

They can still get noticed but they have to work harder when given the chance. Mine pitched at the Stanford Camp this summer and threw four innings without giving up a run and allowed only one hit and one walk. The evaluation said that he doesn't look like a pitcher but is effective. Which basically means that he's not 6' 4" and doesn't throw all that hard.

I agree on the grades part that is most important unless he is a sure fire star and even then it sure doesn't hurt.

I don’t like to tell people what to do. They can do or not do almost anything and it could still work out very well.

But sometimes a player’s history can be almost as important as his current ability. It makes projection so much easier because it is based more on facts rather than a total guess.

There is a young 2013 LHP/1B from Iowa that signed early with the U of Florida.

We first started tracking him in 2010… He threw mid 70s, topping out at 78.

A year later we got his peak velocity at 83 mph.
Then that fall he was 86 mph.

Right before his junior year he was 86-87 touching 88-89.

That is when Coach O’Sullivan saw him and said he is going to throw harder yet and got the commitment with a VERY BIG offer.

Upper 80s is very good for a lefty, but especially good when his history shows continual improvement. In other words, he is very likely to get even better.

Now he tops out at 92-93 and we still expect more just based on his track record. Sure there has to be a limit, but who would you want if everything else were somewhat equal.

Pitcher A – 3 years ago was 86 – 2 years ago was throwing 88 – last year was throwing 88

Pitcher B – 3 years ago was 79 – 2 years ago was throwing 84 – last year was throwing 88

Based on nothing other than that information… Who would you bet on to throw with more velocity in the future?

Information can help recruiters and scouts make better decisions. Even information that is three or four years old and doesn’t seem all that great at the time. There are kids who throw 90 when they are 16. Some end up throwing mid 90s, some end up still throwing 90 when they are 18.

If two kids are both throwing 90 at 18… one that was 90 at 16… one that was 80 at 16… they are the same velocity now, but they’re really not the same at all. You wouldn't know that without the history.

Please I understand there is more than velocity. I’m just trying to make a point using velocity as the measure.

you have to love it

Very good points PG. Made me think about his velocity progression. He's been gunned three times. Two yrs ago, 65, last year 72, this summer, 79. So if I run rate that trend, he should be at 86 next year, 93 the fall of Sr year, and hitting 100 by the summer after he graduates. Of course I'm kidding, lol. But you do make a great point.

quote:

Originally posted by nolan ryan:
Very good points PG. Made me think about his velocity progression. He's been gunned three times. Two yrs ago, 65, last year 72, this summer, 79. So if I run rate that trend, he should be at 86 next year, 93 the fall of Sr year, and hitting 100 by the summer after he graduates. Of course I'm kidding, lol. But you do make a great point.

I realize that you were kidding but if you have been following velocity topics on this site, you will see that pitchers do gain the most as a junior and then it levels off.

I think that is why PG was suggesting that a history of the player is important for future improvement. That history should always come from a reliable source.

As far as I know PG's ratings are based upon future projection, not current.

Not sure what showcases in winter actually prove unless your son continues to throw and then takes time to prepare. Spring, summer or fall may be more beneficial. I don't beleive in shutting down, starting back up, shutting down, etc for young pitchers.

PG,
Enjoyed your post about Sully, kind of reminds me of son's experience. The guy knows his stuff!

Timely thread and as a lurker for well over a year I joined as I felt the need to respond.

I have a 2015 LHP and have been considering the same question. Looking at PG results from his class from all over the country a number of kids with evals of 7.0-7.5 with upper 70's-low 80's velocity do exist. Like stated, projection is always noted espically from a thin/taller kid. I have also seen comments reflective of fastball "command, low in the zone, movement" I feel your own points with respect to your son "mix & movement" is a plus.

If a kids has reasonable speed, (not off the charts) and change speeds with a breaking pitch, C/up I would hope that may be reported accordingly and reflected in a 7 to 7.5 grade which is not bad for a 2015. At 6' and some added lbs and core strength he still has room to fill in and add mph IMO depending on how hard he wants to work at it and whats his acedemic direction.

Again, I do share your concern as we are considering a trip in Feb. to Iowa. I have know idea how he'll throw indoors in comparison to the summer outside and will prepare as needed. Mine has a lot of room to grow which is evident as he looks like he may have spent time stranded on a island.

quote:

Originally posted by SultanofSwat:
These showcases are like a permanent record of velocity. If the velocity is something that will excite coaches, then go.

And if not, Don't go.

quote:

Originally posted by TPM:
I think that is why PG was suggesting that a history of the player is important for future improvement. That history should always come from a reliable source.

Just keep in mind that the reliable source as to progression can also come from a high school coach. There is no need to spend $700 to $1,000 to establish a single entry on a track record.

.