So give me the truth D1, D2, D3

Well, let's start with this, assuming excellent academic chops... there is a huge difference between the odds of a yet-to-display-D1 tools player to play at Stanford or Vandy than at an Ivy, from a top level player standpoint.  And, again, huge difference between some of those you named in the first segment as compared to the second.  As a player who projects to be small and doesn't yet throw with top tier velo, odds are extremely low as a P at a Stanford or Vandy.  You didn't really sell us on his hit tool, so I'll say the same is likely as a position player at those schools.  

Beyond that, there is so much that can happen with a decent young player, there is really no way of saying or putting odds on it with any degree of accuracy.  Running 6.7, throwing 85 and exit of 90 by junior year, combined with the academic chops would certainly put him in the realm of real possibilities at schools other than Vandy and Stanford but he's not nearly there yet, so that's a good deal of speculation.  His current numbers and age are such that you are wasting your time worrying about this until he develops more.  He hasn't even started HS and you are asking about odds of playing D1 ball... usually an indication that you should take a step back, breathe and enjoy the first year or two of HS ball.  Try to provide reasonable resources so that he can develop over that time (as a HS player).  Then, you can re-assess for any next-level direction.  

The 7.2 60 as a rising freshman is a really good number... I definitely understand the question, because the top schools such as Vanderbilt are indeed recruiting and committing Freshman & Sophomores.

Here's the thing to be honest with yourself about:  is he almost fully mature physically right now?  Most freshman are not, but a few are.  If he still has room to fill out, then the 6.7 is definitely attainable...

Anyways the 6.7 60, 90 Exit Velo, 85 Throwing Velo is *somewhat* within the range of top D1's, provided he is also a phenomenal Baseball player, too.   It will help to have someone very credible in his corner ( a travel team owner or a scout or coach etc) who can help him get in front of the recruiting coordinator at the right schools...

A friend of mine's kid commited to an SEC school this past spring as a freshman.  His numbers are similar to what you are speculating about (the 6.7 60, 90 Exit Velo, 85 Throwing Velo) *however* from what my friend has told me, those are the numbers that can get an early commitment, but the expectation is that he will improve on those numbers by the time he is a Senior signing a NLI.

The other thing is that my friend's kid has already shown the ability in games to regularly square up 88+ mph pitches and has a slick glove at Shortstop.

There is a lot more to all this than just hitting a certain number.  You are right to ask about the numbers though, because if you don't hit a certain number it can be a disqualifier before they even decide to find out that you can play ball.

for the top high academic D3's, the 6.7 60, 90 Exit Velo, 85 Throwing Velo will definitely open some doors.

Of course a 6.5 60 with a 95 Exit Velo would be better (!)

This sounds like a “Francis” post under a different screen name. 

EastCO posted:

So my oldest just turned 15. Rising freshman.  He is going to be small.  5-9, maybe 5-10.  Good eye at plate. High avg, walk rate, doubles power.  7.2 recent 60.  Throws 75.  Exit 80.   Better than avg mif, elite OF.   Our, at least my, priority is getting him into the best academic school he can get into.   Really high level student.  Just give me some guesses.  If a kids grades/scores match at very upper range and lets say he runs 6.7, throws 85, exit 90 by junior yr,  what are odds a little guy can play ball at say stanford, duke, ivy, Vanderbilt, etc...?  1000 to 1?   500 to 1?   How about an elite D3 like amherst, williams, mit, hopkins, etc...    

He will need those numbers or better for Stanford, Duke, Vandy, before junior year, like freshman maybe sophomore year. And I don’t think being 5’9 or 5”10 will hold him back provided he can swing it. 

I would worry about just being the best player he can be and get on the best teams he can play on. If able, improve the infield skills. Unless you can really smash the ball consistently MIF is sought after more than OF, especially as you go up in divisions. 

I would not worry about college divisions now. Enjoy HS. For most D1 schools that you mentioned and they Ivy or patriot leagues, if THEY  want you then THEY will let you know. Otherwise focus on HA D3 or Juco in a few years

Hmm... Francis7?  Read his posts. 👌  i assume that was intended to be a bit snarky. 

People can’t guess on a player they haven’t seen play. Your son should focus on being the best player he can be. Then figure out what level he should focus his recruiting efforts. If he turns out to be a D1 prospect the top travel teams in your area will pursue him. Chances are if you’re asking if he’s good enough for Stanford, Vanderbilt and Duke, he’s not.

It’s wise to have target colleges and get in front of them. But in the end the college picks the player not the player picks the college.

5’6” three year starter at Vanderbilt. Left in the MLB draft after junior year. 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com...rofile.asp?ID=164872

5’9” three year starter at Duke. Left in the  MLB draft after junior year.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com...rofile.asp?ID=148577

It’s about producing, not size.

Honestly, I think you need to look at this the other way around.   If he projects to be an excellent student over a very good baseball player, why are you focusing on the baseball side of the equation?    Stanford, Duke, Vandy, others get the top athletic talent in the country.   Most people on this site love baseball and their kids love baseball, yes I get it.   But if your son excels on the academic side of the equation why not be looking at the schools that reward top academic recruits who also have a baseball team.    As somebody who has been through this, I can honestly tell you that you can save yourself a year of recruiting agony by really thinking that over.

As always, JMO.

EastCO posted:

Hmm... Francis7?  Read his posts. 👌  i assume that was intended to be a bit snarky. 

Snarky? Maybe a little. But you asked for the truth so here it is. At 15 yrs old it’s not possible to accurately determine if your son is even capable of playing college baseball - much less at what level. The only answer right now (as most every post has pointed out) is it depends - on this:     a) the talent level of your son at the age he would be recruited. How much better will he get in the next year or 2 ? Who knows?  b) his grades and test scores in HS which are yet to be determined.                               c) who has credibility with college coaches and will advocate for your son. If you don’t know the answer to that now, start looking for it.                                                      d) your son’s success against HS age players, which is yet to be determined.       e) what part of the country you live in. Regional differences are big. What’s true in Pennsylvania may not be true in Florida.     A lot of what is mentioned above is out of your control.  That’s why (at this point) the focus should be on becoming the best player you can be. But if you must plow ahead you should look at probabilities - which say that D3 is the most likely destination. Look at any of the recent threads by CollegeBaseballInsights and you will see the numbers. Far more HS players end up in D3 than any other D. Start doing research on D3 schools in your area. This board is a great resource for navigating the D3 process of showcases, admissions, financial aid,etc.  Hardly anyone has a son that will make a living as a professional ballplayer. Therefore the reasonable goal should be to use baseball to help get the best college education possible. Which means that the whole D1, D2, D3 thing really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.  I would also suggest this - take off the rose colored glasses that most parents wear and be objective about your son’s abilities. Go watch college games in your area and make sure your son goes with you. Watch JuCo, D1, D2, D3 - all of it. If you and your son are honest in your assessment of his ability, and keen in your observations, a lot of questions will be answered about where he fits in. Once you know where he fits in you know what pond to fish in. Then you can get more specific. Until then it’s all a bunch of speculation. 

At 15 yrs old it’s not possible to accurately determine if your son is even capable of playing college baseball - much less at what level.

Before anyone posts there are 15yos receiving  offers from D1’s ...

1) They are a handful of players among thousands.

2) Their parents aren’t asking if they’re D1 prospects. They’re being told by baseball experts. 

RJM posted:

At 15 yrs old it’s not possible to accurately determine if your son is even capable of playing college baseball - much less at what level.

Before any posts there are 15yos receiving  offers from D1’s ...

1) They are a handful of players among thousands.

2) Their parents aren’t asking if they’re D1 prospects. They’re being told by baseball experts. 

It’s true that the very best 15 yr olds are getting offers. But they can be rescinded if the player doesn’t progress. Nothing is certain until a player signs a NLI during his senior year in HS. And you are 100% correct that those players don’t have to ask what level they can play at. They are told. 

Another truth: Look at any roster, D1, D2, D3 only 10-12 kids are getting 50AB+ a year. 

For pitchers, about 8-9 kids get 30IP+ a year at D1.  At the D3 level it's probably 5-6 pitchers.

Don't ask yourself is my kid good enough to be one of 35, but rather is he good enough to be top 10 on the roster. 

Other than that, your kid hasn't spent a day in a HS classroom yet, I would chill on the Stanford, Vandy talk for the time being.

@fenwaysouth - something I tell my kids all the time is "It's great to be a play on a professional team. But it's better to be the owner of the team."

It sounds like your son is like a lot of very good 15 year old baseball players: very good but not the world beater type that everybody knows are immediate D1/draft guys out of high school. This the exact place my son was all through high school.

Here is the reality: there's no way to know the "chance" of one of the elite academic D1 baseball schools wanting him. When my son was in high school our goal was the same as yours: that he go to the best combination of high level academics and baseball as possible. 

We did not know if that meant a good baseball D3 like Trinity, an Ivy, or a Stanford/Duke/Vandy. We kept an open mind to all of those and let the game come to him. 

At the age your son is, it is very natural to wonder if he is a D1 level player. The fact is, you probably won't know until they recruit and offer him. And guess what? Even then, you won't know until he gets between the chalk lines. 

But do realize that for the elite academic/baseball schools, they increasingly are able to fill out their roster with nothing but the blue chippers. The MLB draft obviously can result in them moving down their chart to more of the kids like your and my son, but that happens late. 

So in all likelihood unless your son gets all toolsy all of a sudden, you're just not gunna know until they tell you.

That is why you cast a wide net. No need to give up on D1 at this point it can happen. However I would look at D2 and D3 schools as well. As you go through the process your son will learn where he belongs. 

The truth?  You're concerned with the wrong metrics.  I know a senior in HS that runs a 6.5, 90-91 from Outfield, and is 5'-11" with no offers (much less deciding between D1,2, or 3).  Why?  Most likely it's because he's 165lbs, but who knows?!

Here are the real questions: 
Will you son make Varsity this year?  (If not, then he's most likely not D1 AT THIS TIME). 
Is your son one of the top 5 or so players on his travel team?  How often do you see better players than your son? (Again, not an indication of the end result, but will tell you where he is in relation to his peers) 
How does he compete against "as good / better" players in his age?  (This may require an honest assessment)
Does he have opportunities to play for higher caliber travel teams?  (Perhaps he's unable to, but are you receiving the phone calls?)

My guess is that your answers to the above will tell you what you need to know.  However, the most important aspect is to not become enamored with metrics and velo and exit velocity.  Find your son a trainer that focuses on baseball workouts and lifting.  Get your son to become one of the strongest players on the baseball field.  (Don't confuse raw strength with baseball specific strength . .. it's different).  Focus on his mechanics and defense  and his swing and all the things that can't be measured.

Get strong, with solid mechanics, and all of these metrics, and velo and exit velo will take care of itself.  Once that happens, then you'll look up, and you'll know exactly where your son stacks up because people will be calling him, not the other way around.

Go to games at the various levels of competition. Ask yourself if you could see (not dream) your son developing to the level of play on the field. Keep in mind at each level there are the top dogs, those who could beat the top dogs on any given day and the pretenders. Don’t watch a lower level D1 conference, compare your son and think since it’s D1 he can play at Vanderbilt, Duke, Stanford, etc..

It depends where he is the next two summers. Vanderbilt and Stanford are tough for the biggest and strongest, they are the elite. If you produce elite results and you are small, I don't know that it matters, but they are the top of the top. Quite honestly, Duke is very good in terms of recruits too. It is impossible to predict where your kid will be. Tell him to work hard. You will know soon enough by who is showing interest. I had no idea where my kid would be until end of rising sophomore summer when 4-5 of the same level schools started asking him to call. We have a 5'9 kid on our hs team, rising junior, who went from no offers to 5-6 top 25 P5 team offers in one week. Prepare and when the stage is right, perform. That's all you can do.

He's a freshman. A couple of thoughts.

Whose goal is the highest academic school, yours or his? If you want it to be his, you have to persuade him that is what he wants. And even then, you should have a broader plan than "Ivy (equivalent) or bust," because many, many kids (non-athletes) don't get into those schools. Don't set him (and yourself) up for disappointment, have a wider range that both you and he would be happy with - and be happy with it.

Whose goal is the baseball, yours or his? "Even" for D3, it has to be his goal, he has to really want it and work for it. You cannot just expect "he's a decent athlete, so that will give him a side door to admissions" (recent scandal aside); the most academically competitive schools can be selective about what athletes they support with admissions.

If baseball is truly his focus, then you are right to at least think about 60-time and other measurables, and about the recruiting timelines for various levels. I wish we had known more, earlier. You can train for those, and if he wants to, then you should, but up to a point it's going to be about what is physically possible for him. Don't make him miserable (or injure him) trying to attain something that may not happen anyway; let him lead with what he wants out of baseball, support whatever training he wants to do, and make sure that he keeps his grades up.