So my oldest just turned 15. Rising freshman.  He is going to be small.  5-9, maybe 5-10.  Good eye at plate. High avg, walk rate, doubles power.  7.2 recent 60.  Throws 75.  Exit 80.   Better than avg mif, elite OF.   Our, at least my, priority is getting him into the best academic school he can get into.   Really high level student.  Just give me some guesses.  If a kids grades/scores match at very upper range and lets say he runs 6.7, throws 85, exit 90 by junior yr,  what are odds a little guy can play ball at say stanford, duke, ivy, Vanderbilt, etc...?  1000 to 1?   500 to 1?   How about an elite D3 like amherst, williams, mit, hopkins, etc...    

Original Post

Well, let's start with this, assuming excellent academic chops... there is a huge difference between the odds of a yet-to-display-D1 tools player to play at Stanford or Vandy than at an Ivy, from a top level player standpoint.  And, again, huge difference between some of those you named in the first segment as compared to the second.  As a player who projects to be small and doesn't yet throw with top tier velo, odds are extremely low as a P at a Stanford or Vandy.  You didn't really sell us on his hit tool, so I'll say the same is likely as a position player at those schools.  

Beyond that, there is so much that can happen with a decent young player, there is really no way of saying or putting odds on it with any degree of accuracy.  Running 6.7, throwing 85 and exit of 90 by junior year, combined with the academic chops would certainly put him in the realm of real possibilities at schools other than Vandy and Stanford but he's not nearly there yet, so that's a good deal of speculation.  His current numbers and age are such that you are wasting your time worrying about this until he develops more.  He hasn't even started HS and you are asking about odds of playing D1 ball... usually an indication that you should take a step back, breathe and enjoy the first year or two of HS ball.  Try to provide reasonable resources so that he can develop over that time (as a HS player).  Then, you can re-assess for any next-level direction.  

 

The 7.2 60 as a rising freshman is a really good number... I definitely understand the question, because the top schools such as Vanderbilt are indeed recruiting and committing Freshman & Sophomores.

Here's the thing to be honest with yourself about:  is he almost fully mature physically right now?  Most freshman are not, but a few are.  If he still has room to fill out, then the 6.7 is definitely attainable...

Anyways the 6.7 60, 90 Exit Velo, 85 Throwing Velo is *somewhat* within the range of top D1's, provided he is also a phenomenal Baseball player, too.   It will help to have someone very credible in his corner ( a travel team owner or a scout or coach etc) who can help him get in front of the recruiting coordinator at the right schools...

A friend of mine's kid commited to an SEC school this past spring as a freshman.  His numbers are similar to what you are speculating about (the 6.7 60, 90 Exit Velo, 85 Throwing Velo) *however* from what my friend has told me, those are the numbers that can get an early commitment, but the expectation is that he will improve on those numbers by the time he is a Senior signing a NLI.

The other thing is that my friend's kid has already shown the ability in games to regularly square up 88+ mph pitches and has a slick glove at Shortstop.

There is a lot more to all this than just hitting a certain number.  You are right to ask about the numbers though, because if you don't hit a certain number it can be a disqualifier before they even decide to find out that you can play ball.

for the top high academic D3's, the 6.7 60, 90 Exit Velo, 85 Throwing Velo will definitely open some doors.

Of course a 6.5 60 with a 95 Exit Velo would be better (!)

EastCO posted:

So my oldest just turned 15. Rising freshman.  He is going to be small.  5-9, maybe 5-10.  Good eye at plate. High avg, walk rate, doubles power.  7.2 recent 60.  Throws 75.  Exit 80.   Better than avg mif, elite OF.   Our, at least my, priority is getting him into the best academic school he can get into.   Really high level student.  Just give me some guesses.  If a kids grades/scores match at very upper range and lets say he runs 6.7, throws 85, exit 90 by junior yr,  what are odds a little guy can play ball at say stanford, duke, ivy, Vanderbilt, etc...?  1000 to 1?   500 to 1?   How about an elite D3 like amherst, williams, mit, hopkins, etc...    

He will need those numbers or better for Stanford, Duke, Vandy, before junior year, like freshman maybe sophomore year. And I don’t think being 5’9 or 5”10 will hold him back provided he can swing it. 

I would worry about just being the best player he can be and get on the best teams he can play on. If able, improve the infield skills. Unless you can really smash the ball consistently MIF is sought after more than OF, especially as you go up in divisions. 

I would not worry about college divisions now. Enjoy HS. For most D1 schools that you mentioned and they Ivy or patriot leagues, if THEY  want you then THEY will let you know. Otherwise focus on HA D3 or Juco in a few years

People can’t guess on a player they haven’t seen play. Your son should focus on being the best player he can be. Then figure out what level he should focus his recruiting efforts. If he turns out to be a D1 prospect the top travel teams in your area will pursue him. Chances are if you’re asking if he’s good enough for Stanford, Vanderbilt and Duke, he’s not.

It’s wise to have target colleges and get in front of them. But in the end the college picks the player not the player picks the college.

5’6” three year starter at Vanderbilt. Left in the MLB draft after junior year. 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com...rofile.asp?ID=164872

5’9” three year starter at Duke. Left in the  MLB draft after junior year.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com...rofile.asp?ID=148577

It’s about producing, not size.

Honestly, I think you need to look at this the other way around.   If he projects to be an excellent student over a very good baseball player, why are you focusing on the baseball side of the equation?    Stanford, Duke, Vandy, others get the top athletic talent in the country.   Most people on this site love baseball and their kids love baseball, yes I get it.   But if your son excels on the academic side of the equation why not be looking at the schools that reward top academic recruits who also have a baseball team.    As somebody who has been through this, I can honestly tell you that you can save yourself a year of recruiting agony by really thinking that over.

As always, JMO.

EastCO posted:

Hmm... Francis7?  Read his posts. 👌  i assume that was intended to be a bit snarky. 

Snarky? Maybe a little. But you asked for the truth so here it is. At 15 yrs old it’s not possible to accurately determine if your son is even capable of playing college baseball - much less at what level. The only answer right now (as most every post has pointed out) is it depends - on this:     a) the talent level of your son at the age he would be recruited. How much better will he get in the next year or 2 ? Who knows?  b) his grades and test scores in HS which are yet to be determined.                               c) who has credibility with college coaches and will advocate for your son. If you don’t know the answer to that now, start looking for it.                                                      d) your son’s success against HS age players, which is yet to be determined.       e) what part of the country you live in. Regional differences are big. What’s true in Pennsylvania may not be true in Florida.     A lot of what is mentioned above is out of your control.  That’s why (at this point) the focus should be on becoming the best player you can be. But if you must plow ahead you should look at probabilities - which say that D3 is the most likely destination. Look at any of the recent threads by CollegeBaseballInsights and you will see the numbers. Far more HS players end up in D3 than any other D. Start doing research on D3 schools in your area. This board is a great resource for navigating the D3 process of showcases, admissions, financial aid,etc.  Hardly anyone has a son that will make a living as a professional ballplayer. Therefore the reasonable goal should be to use baseball to help get the best college education possible. Which means that the whole D1, D2, D3 thing really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.  I would also suggest this - take off the rose colored glasses that most parents wear and be objective about your son’s abilities. Go watch college games in your area and make sure your son goes with you. Watch JuCo, D1, D2, D3 - all of it. If you and your son are honest in your assessment of his ability, and keen in your observations, a lot of questions will be answered about where he fits in. Once you know where he fits in you know what pond to fish in. Then you can get more specific. Until then it’s all a bunch of speculation. 

At 15 yrs old it’s not possible to accurately determine if your son is even capable of playing college baseball - much less at what level.

Before anyone posts there are 15yos receiving  offers from D1’s ...

1) They are a handful of players among thousands.

2) Their parents aren’t asking if they’re D1 prospects. They’re being told by baseball experts. 

RJM posted:

At 15 yrs old it’s not possible to accurately determine if your son is even capable of playing college baseball - much less at what level.

Before any posts there are 15yos receiving  offers from D1’s ...

1) They are a handful of players among thousands.

2) Their parents aren’t asking if they’re D1 prospects. They’re being told by baseball experts. 

It’s true that the very best 15 yr olds are getting offers. But they can be rescinded if the player doesn’t progress. Nothing is certain until a player signs a NLI during his senior year in HS. And you are 100% correct that those players don’t have to ask what level they can play at. They are told. 

Another truth: Look at any roster, D1, D2, D3 only 10-12 kids are getting 50AB+ a year. 

For pitchers, about 8-9 kids get 30IP+ a year at D1.  At the D3 level it's probably 5-6 pitchers.

Don't ask yourself is my kid good enough to be one of 35, but rather is he good enough to be top 10 on the roster. 

Other than that, your kid hasn't spent a day in a HS classroom yet, I would chill on the Stanford, Vandy talk for the time being.

It sounds like your son is like a lot of very good 15 year old baseball players: very good but not the world beater type that everybody knows are immediate D1/draft guys out of high school. This the exact place my son was all through high school.

Here is the reality: there's no way to know the "chance" of one of the elite academic D1 baseball schools wanting him. When my son was in high school our goal was the same as yours: that he go to the best combination of high level academics and baseball as possible. 

We did not know if that meant a good baseball D3 like Trinity, an Ivy, or a Stanford/Duke/Vandy. We kept an open mind to all of those and let the game come to him. 

At the age your son is, it is very natural to wonder if he is a D1 level player. The fact is, you probably won't know until they recruit and offer him. And guess what? Even then, you won't know until he gets between the chalk lines. 

But do realize that for the elite academic/baseball schools, they increasingly are able to fill out their roster with nothing but the blue chippers. The MLB draft obviously can result in them moving down their chart to more of the kids like your and my son, but that happens late. 

So in all likelihood unless your son gets all toolsy all of a sudden, you're just not gunna know until they tell you.

 

 

 

 

The truth?  You're concerned with the wrong metrics.  I know a senior in HS that runs a 6.5, 90-91 from Outfield, and is 5'-11" with no offers (much less deciding between D1,2, or 3).  Why?  Most likely it's because he's 165lbs, but who knows?!

Here are the real questions: 
Will you son make Varsity this year?  (If not, then he's most likely not D1 AT THIS TIME). 
Is your son one of the top 5 or so players on his travel team?  How often do you see better players than your son? (Again, not an indication of the end result, but will tell you where he is in relation to his peers) 
How does he compete against "as good / better" players in his age?  (This may require an honest assessment)
Does he have opportunities to play for higher caliber travel teams?  (Perhaps he's unable to, but are you receiving the phone calls?)

My guess is that your answers to the above will tell you what you need to know.  However, the most important aspect is to not become enamored with metrics and velo and exit velocity.  Find your son a trainer that focuses on baseball workouts and lifting.  Get your son to become one of the strongest players on the baseball field.  (Don't confuse raw strength with baseball specific strength . .. it's different).  Focus on his mechanics and defense  and his swing and all the things that can't be measured.

Get strong, with solid mechanics, and all of these metrics, and velo and exit velo will take care of itself.  Once that happens, then you'll look up, and you'll know exactly where your son stacks up because people will be calling him, not the other way around.

Go to games at the various levels of competition. Ask yourself if you could see (not dream) your son developing to the level of play on the field. Keep in mind at each level there are the top dogs, those who could beat the top dogs on any given day and the pretenders. Don’t watch a lower level D1 conference, compare your son and think since it’s D1 he can play at Vanderbilt, Duke, Stanford, etc..

It depends where he is the next two summers. Vanderbilt and Stanford are tough for the biggest and strongest, they are the elite. If you produce elite results and you are small, I don't know that it matters, but they are the top of the top. Quite honestly, Duke is very good in terms of recruits too. It is impossible to predict where your kid will be. Tell him to work hard. You will know soon enough by who is showing interest. I had no idea where my kid would be until end of rising sophomore summer when 4-5 of the same level schools started asking him to call. We have a 5'9 kid on our hs team, rising junior, who went from no offers to 5-6 top 25 P5 team offers in one week. Prepare and when the stage is right, perform. That's all you can do.

 

He's a freshman. A couple of thoughts.

Whose goal is the highest academic school, yours or his? If you want it to be his, you have to persuade him that is what he wants. And even then, you should have a broader plan than "Ivy (equivalent) or bust," because many, many kids (non-athletes) don't get into those schools. Don't set him (and yourself) up for disappointment, have a wider range that both you and he would be happy with - and be happy with it.

Whose goal is the baseball, yours or his? "Even" for D3, it has to be his goal, he has to really want it and work for it. You cannot just expect "he's a decent athlete, so that will give him a side door to admissions" (recent scandal aside); the most academically competitive schools can be selective about what athletes they support with admissions.

If baseball is truly his focus, then you are right to at least think about 60-time and other measurables, and about the recruiting timelines for various levels. I wish we had known more, earlier. You can train for those, and if he wants to, then you should, but up to a point it's going to be about what is physically possible for him. Don't make him miserable (or injure him) trying to attain something that may not happen anyway; let him lead with what he wants out of baseball, support whatever training he wants to do, and make sure that he keeps his grades up.

Thank you all.  Great insight and advice (which I've come to expect here).  What a great resource this is.   He has a travel teammate who is all that and a bowl of chili.  played up a year.  just turned 14 y.o., 6ft tall with PG documented 83mph FB; 91 exit velo (wood bat/tee).  Already scouted.  A different cat than my kid for sure.  

EastCO posted:

Thank you all.  Great insight and advice (which I've come to expect here).  What a great resource this is.   He has a travel teammate who is all that and a bowl of chili.  played up a year.  just turned 14 y.o., 6ft tall with PG documented 83mph FB; 91 exit velo (wood bat/tee).  Already scouted.  A different cat than my kid for sure.  

EastCO,

But does his travel teammate have the academics your son has?   You have to understand where you have leverage and use it in the college recruiting game.  You stated your goal (assume it is your son's too) was "to get into the best academic school he can get into.    Really high level student".  

There are numerous high academic opportunities across the NCAA spectrum for recruits looking to play college baseball.   Stanford, Vandy, Duke are awesome baseball schools that take a small handful of elite recruits every year.   There is a universe of other schools/coaches that are looking at the rest of the candidate pool.    All HA coaches are looking for the best baseball player they can get through admissions.   Admissions for a recruited athlete is what you truly need to understand if you want the truth to your original question.  The truth varies considerably across HA schools.   For example:   I can tell you with 100% certainty the recruiting timeline and admission process varied considerably for William & Mary, Richmond, Cornell, Harvard, Lafayette, and Tufts.   As a parent, I looked at it as my job to understand how admissions and recruiting  worked (together) and how much was coming out of my bank account.

Feel free to PM me if you want to discuss specifics.           

Considering that elite teams like Vandy have most of their recruiting class set by the summer after their HS sophomore year, the odds of him getting there are slim.  Not knocking the kid, just stating facts.  My son was really young for his class.....and  was 5'2 when he started his freshman year of HS and probably around 100#.  He was maybe 5'9, 140 when he committed after his junior year (but throwing 90 regularly). Even with a 90 mph fastball  no "elite team" was going to take a 5'9, 140 pound kid.   By the time he graduated he was 6' and 165.  He was 180 by the time he threw his first pitch in the Spring of his freshman year of college and was hitting 92.   Who knows what would have happened if we had waited a year to enroll him in school, 6', 160 looks a lot better to a coach than 5'9, 140 lol 

When it comes to recruiting.....there's D1, then there is "D1+" which would include schools like Vandy, Stanford, the top SEC's, etc, etc.   They really should almost be considered two different levels when you are looking at recruiting.    Sure, sometimes top kid at a lower level D1 could possibly have been "missed" by the big boys......or maybe he just matured too late.   It also happens that a kid commits to one of the elite teams as a soph....based on "projection"...and he doesn't end up fitting their needs by the time he is ready to enroll....so he ends up not going.    It happens....but not that often.  The "D1+" teams don't miss many, the guys recruiting for them get it right pretty often

Are you the buckeye? or your son?  both?  I'm a graduate school Buckeye myself.  My parents both taught there.  Forget baseball scholarship money.  Professors' kid tuition discount was the best. 

Anyhow, that concept of D1+ you presented rings true.  Thank you for your time and thoughts.  My kid is 5ft 7 and 128lbs currently.   The doctors calculator says he will max at 5-9, 5-10.  I suspect he will be 150lbs as a Jr.   He will probably be challenged to ever get above 170lbs until he is a portly old man like me.    Great story about your son.  Over the years, I've seen so many kids get cut from my sons' travel teams because they were small and lacked power.  In the past couple years particularly, I've loved watching the ones who've matured come back and kick ass against us.  

EastCO posted:

So my oldest just turned 15. Rising freshman.  He is going to be small.  5-9, maybe 5-10.  Good eye at plate. High avg, walk rate, doubles power.  7.2 recent 60.  Throws 75.  Exit 80.   Better than avg mif, elite OF.   Our, at least my, priority is getting him into the best academic school he can get into.   Really high level student.  Just give me some guesses.  If a kids grades/scores match at very upper range and lets say he runs 6.7, throws 85, exit 90 by junior yr,  what are odds a little guy can play ball at say stanford, duke, ivy, Vanderbilt, etc...?  1000 to 1?   500 to 1?   How about an elite D3 like amherst, williams, mit, hopkins, etc...    

I'm with Fenway. Take the academic part as your foundation, given what I've highlighted. Desire and willingness to work hard to improve are the "intangibles" that can alter a players current measurables. From your post, it seems that your son is versatile--a good thing if he's looking at some of the smaller rostered HA schools.  Based on what you've given, I wouldn't say it's a longshot to land on one of the schools(inc. the "etc.").

Advise your son not to let up on his already stellar academic record and work towards improving the athletic piece. Son was also undersized MI/CF recruit (5'10" 145 senior year HS) , not considered the best player on most teams he played (HS/AAU). He was motivated to attend a HA school. He threw 69-70 across infield at a showcase when he was your son's age. Was in bottom 5  "throwing"at showcase, but a top 3 runnner.  The third party evaluators said he should strengthen his strongest tool (60 time). That 69 mph stuck in his mind though; later threw 85 at a showcase his junior year.His 60 time dropped almost 0.5 in three years. Measurables do improve due to natural growth as he gets older in HS. But it's the player's plan for improving,motivation, efforts, and resources provided that can make the goal more of a reality. Good luck.

There is also the (less frequently discussed) high academic Group of Five schools, such as Miami (Ohio), Rice, Tulane, etc., which can check many boxes and fall just below P5 but still D1.  When formulating a list for our son, we included that Tier in addition to Ivy, Patriot, etc.  A few excellent options are in that space, as well.

EastCO posted:

Are you the buckeye? or your son?  both?  I'm a graduate school Buckeye myself.  My parents both taught there.  Forget baseball scholarship money.  Professors' kid tuition discount was the best. 

Anyhow, that concept of D1+ you presented rings true.  Thank you for your time and thoughts.  My kid is 5ft 7 and 128lbs currently.   The doctors calculator says he will max at 5-9, 5-10.  I suspect he will be 150lbs as a Jr.   He will probably be challenged to ever get above 170lbs until he is a portly old man like me.    Great story about your son.  Over the years, I've seen so many kids get cut from my sons' travel teams because they were small and lacked power.  In the past couple years particularly, I've loved watching the ones who've matured come back and kick ass against us.  

Buckeye as in Buckeye fans from the Buckeye state (both of us lol).   He played at BGSU.   Feel free to PM me anytime with questions.  I'll help if I can

It's amazing how much kids change from 13U/14U to 17U.   I look back at some of the best players from our state (Wisconsin) in my son's age group (2021 grads) and:

the best player is still the best player, but now a PO and commited to Arkansas

the most electrifying player from that class I saw isn't even playing Baseball anymore, and is commited to the U of Wisconsin football program as a running back

another kid stopped growing and while he'll still play college baseball he won't be the slam dunk SEC player he looked like and instead will likely be a mid major kid or D2

The best Shortstop from that class is now a CF.  Still a great hitter but uncommitted as of now

another great middle infielder is trying to decide between basketball & baseball, not really working on baseball year round at all

Meanwhile 3 other kids who were kind of undersized & talented but not getting lots of hype in 13U/14U are a catcher now commited to Notre Dame, a shortstop now commited to Alabama, and a CF now commited to Michigan...

In other words, it's all over the place & hard to predict

3and2Fastball posted:

It's amazing how much kids change from 13U/14U to 17U.   I look back at some of the best players from our state (Wisconsin) in my son's age group (2021 grads) and:

the best player is still the best player, but now a PO and commited to Arkansas

the most electrifying player from that class I saw isn't even playing Baseball anymore, and is commited to the U of Wisconsin football program as a running back

another kid stopped growing and while he'll still play college baseball he won't be the slam dunk SEC player he looked like and instead will likely be a mid major kid or D2

The best Shortstop from that class is now a CF.  Still a great hitter but uncommitted as of now

another great middle infielder is trying to decide between basketball & baseball, not really working on baseball year round at all

Meanwhile 3 other kids who were kind of undersized & talented but not getting lots of hype in 13U/14U are a catcher now commited to Notre Dame, a shortstop now commited to Alabama, and a CF now commited to Michigan...

In other words, it's all over the place & hard to predict

So true....my son played all over the country at 12U.  The best 11u/12u player we saw was from PA.  He was probably 5'7, 130 at the time and throwing in the low-mid 70's.  Looked him up a couple years ago to see if my son would run into him in college.  He was a RB at a D2. and was 5'9, 180

Meant to add:  a good friend of mine's kid was throwing 81 as a 13U-14U kid and thought of as a big time prospect.  Now he's a college sophomore throwing 82.  He's still getting a full ride at a great D2 (combining academic & athletic scholarships) but the MLB dreams are long gone...

you just never know...

3and2Fastball posted:

Meant to add:  a good friend of mine's kid was throwing 81 as a 13U-14U kid and thought of as a big time prospect.  Now he's a college sophomore throwing 82.  He's still getting a full ride at a great D2 (combining academic & athletic scholarships) but the MLB dreams are long gone...

you just never know...

“You just never know”

That is the point so many have tried to drive home. A kids success at 15 doesn’t always extrapolate to success at 17 or 18. 

One of the 15yos I coached parents were livid I recommended him to a D2 coach to track when we played in a 16u tournament. The kid was a man child from 10u to 14u others were catching up to physically. But I felt he had the potential to be a D2 starter. 

The parents were upset because he received a camp invite to an ACC program. I proved the validity of the invite by filling out a recruiting profile for my dog and getting him a camp invite. 

The kid ended up in the same conference as the D2 team hosting the tournament. 

All things considered he was finding the recruiting process ... Ruff. He could run and field but throwing, hitting and hitting with power were challenging. He did have a nose for the ball. It wasn’t surprising a Fox showed some interest.

RJM posted:

All things considered he was finding the recruiting process ... Ruff. He could run and field but throwing, hitting and hitting with power were challenging. He did have a nose for the ball. It wasn’t surprising a Fox showed some interest.

Sounds like the tail wagging the dog.  I'm sure you've kept a short leash on him with innings pitched.  Just hope he wasn't hot dogging in front of the scouts.  Heard he got recognized as best retriever during OF drills at the showcase but couldn't keep his paws off the female spectators... landed him in the dog house.  I heard day 2 got washed out... raining cats and .....   He's probably not the type to roll over, though.  Got a D1 look but they were barking up the wrong tree.  Welp, those are the dog days of summer.  In the end, I'm sure someone will throw him a bone and he'll fetch a nice scholly.  Just takes the proper grooming.

Yes, slow day at work.

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