The 3/4 year mindset versus the 40 year mindset

keewart posted:

All in - does not  mean you don’t assume risk.  You just know what those risks are, and are willing to take them.   All in doesn’t mean you don’t have a plan B.  That is just smart.  All in still knows baseball will end one day.  It’s just not “today”

 

I totally agree with this as the right approach and mindset.  It sounds so simple and straight forward on the surface.  But when a competitive all-in player is navigating his path, he is always thinking he can outwork the other guy, he can be a little bit better than he is now, he can play at that next level, he can strive to achieve more, etc.  He is conditioned by his support team to think that way and to work toward his goals and dreams.  So, yes, self-assessment is often "enthusiastic".  He will want to reach for that bigger, better school from a competitive standpoint, willing to make the sacrifices he always does.  Unfortunately, that often translates into maybe sacrificing a better choice academically (college selection) in order to put himself in a position to succeed in his efforts for that which he is "all in".  

And, one could argue, if that young man is allocating some small percent of his efforts to make sure he has a solid plan B or 40 yr plan, is he really 100% all in on his baseball pursuit?  Or is he just 95% in, or 98% in?  What is the proper counsel from the parent?  If the advice is to actively plan for when baseball is over (which I happen to agree is best), will he be giving up that slight edge, that 2%, to the other great players who are truly all in, end game be damned?  Always one of the more intriguing topics.  One constant is that every single person's particular set of circumstances is unique.

I feel the proper parent counsel is, without question, have a backup plan & in fact, choose the college on academics first & baseball second. There are enough hrs in the day to devote the time needed to prepare for a pro shot if you are at that level. If you get a pro shot, sink it in 100% until they take your uni away, play & train like you have no backup,  & you will have no regrets.

On the other hand.... Vegas is Billions upon Billions built on a 3% advantage. So if we have a spectrum of players with equal talent, the players with the 3% edge will prevail over time.   

The regrets in your 40s can go both ways...my brother maximized baseball through HS and college.  Literally majored in something called "Leisure Studies".  Had a huge career for a while, held NCAA, school and Cape League records.  His arm broke down as a senior in college.  He eventually graduated but had a sub par education and few real skills.  His career has been lackluster.  I know that he wishes he had put more thought into Plan B.

Steve A. posted:

On the other hand.... Vegas is Billions upon Billions built on a 3% advantage. So if we have a spectrum of players with equal talent, the players with the 3% edge will prevail over time.   

We don’t 

Why can't you be all in in baseball and still be all in in the classroom?

greatgame posted:

Why can't you be all in in baseball and still be all in in the classroom?

Easier said than done. At some schools, and in some faculties, just graduating is a feat, let alone graduating and playing a Varsity sport. 

If you don't go the baseball route, you probably have the same odds stacked against you as pro ball.

Probably 80% that you muddle along and have huge college and mortgage debts, have your dreams crushed, and retire with not enough savings.  Maybe higher.

The consensus seems to be that a player should be "all in on baseball" . . . Question: is going to college being "all in on baseball"? It's not when compared to Dominican kids . . .

Thought this article was interesting:

"When I asked scouts which college programs developed hitters the best, the most common answer was laughter, but when forced to answer, many still stumbled and refused to confidently name even one program"

"almost any pro contract with a six figure bonus includes provisions that the entirety of your education be paid for after you retire, even at pricey institutions like Vanderbilt. There are almost no collegiate prospects who are on 100% athletic scholarships, as each school has 11.7 scholarships for 27 players with a 25% minimum for each player. Even with additional, non-athletic scholarships, players rarely get to 100%. In addition to not getting paid to play baseball and actually going out of pocket, players get less individual instruction, a lower quality of instruction, and fewer practice reps. Players have to go to class; the nutrition/training is often good but doesn’t match a professional level. They may not even play for long stretches of their three years, and if the coach gets fired, they could be forced to transfer to an even worse environment. "

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sw...ools-and-player-dev/

Great topic RJM...I don't know why it took me this long to read it.

So, last night my youngest son, wife and I were having dinner and catching up.  We got to talking about all the people (about 50-60) that the family knows (well or casually) through high school, travel,  and college that got drafted and/or playing professional baseball.   We further qualified that to who made it to AAA and beyond.   We came up with one name that stuck with AAA and beyond, and six for AA that are waiting their turn there or retired at that level.  Professional baseball is a tough, tough gig and you've got to be "all in" because that becomes your livelihood and puts food on your plate.  

But the real question for me is WHEN does this 3/4 mindset happen or the 40 year mindset happen...at what point do you go from "hedging" to "all-in"?  First, I think it is different for position players than pitchers for all kinds of reasons.  My oldest RHP son never saw himself playing professional baseball.  He knew he did not have professional talent.  He loved college baseball, and that was going to be the end of the road for him.  Professional baseball  was never plan A or plan B.  So, he was a 40-year mindset the minute he graduated high school.   Second, there are others on this board that I know pretty well and they've done a pretty awesome job of hedging to the point when they got drafted into an acceptable level that met their financial requirements.  They had options, and chose "door A" because that is what they've wanted to do if the opportunity presented itself.   Also, my middle son works with a guy who's son is in high-A and is a top MLB prospect.  My middle son played against this guy many, many times in high school and travel.   He graduated from an ACC school with a degree in chemical engineering (in 3 years) and 4.0 GPA.  This kid had options all the way to the point when he got drafted and signed.  This guy had a 3/4 mindset all the way but had a pretty strong plan B.  He was "all-in" for both.  For me, this becomes a true exercise in self awareness (what are your true talents) and what do you want to do with your life.  

I have an insight from a father I know who played for the Astros for three years. He said the game is all about seeing how far you can go. The game will spit you out when you reach the farthest you can go - and they choose someone better than you. After all, coaches and managers are trying to keep their jobs by winning games. This dad told me he was an absolute dominant player all throughout his youth - until he got into the big leagues. He then realized it was just a matter of time before he was going to get released. He said “It’s harder to say in the MLB, than it is to make it into the MLB.” A very telling quote. He said the players at that level were “athletic freaks.” And he, for the first time, found himself at the bottom of the heap. But he made it into the big leagues and got a taste of his dream. He now works for google, married with kids and is doing just fine. My opinion is we’ve only got one life so we might as well go for whatever the dream is. No regrets when we’re 80 and can’t find our damn glasses anywhere... Oh yeah, they’re on my head. 

2019Dad posted:

The consensus seems to be that a player should be "all in on baseball" . . . Question: is going to college being "all in on baseball"? It's not when compared to Dominican kids . . .

Thought this article was interesting:

"When I asked scouts which college programs developed hitters the best, the most common answer was laughter, but when forced to answer, many still stumbled and refused to confidently name even one program"

"almost any pro contract with a six figure bonus includes provisions that the entirety of your education be paid for after you retire, even at pricey institutions like Vanderbilt. There are almost no collegiate prospects who are on 100% athletic scholarships, as each school has 11.7 scholarships for 27 players with a 25% minimum for each player. Even with additional, non-athletic scholarships, players rarely get to 100%. In addition to not getting paid to play baseball and actually going out of pocket, players get less individual instruction, a lower quality of instruction, and fewer practice reps. Players have to go to class; the nutrition/training is often good but doesn’t match a professional level. They may not even play for long stretches of their three years, and if the coach gets fired, they could be forced to transfer to an even worse environment. "

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sw...ools-and-player-dev/

I wanted to make a few comments.  (I did go back and read the entire article and the comments following).

1) The Dominican players:  many/most are coming here at early ages to escape a dreadful life.  Baseball is a way out.   Many players are sending part of their measly milb salary back home.   Half of bonuses were paid to their coach/adviser.   If you have not seen it yet, watch the documentary "Ballplayer:  Pelotero."  It is well worth your $2.99 to stream it.

2)  The intangibles of going to college and playing ball for 3-4 years vs. going pro right out of high school (setting aside bonus money since that varies by family)

• making life long friends (you still do this in the pros, but there is a lot of comings and goings on rosters during the year, rather than just from year to year)
• getting life's "kinks" out while in college...rather than in the pros.  If you sleep in, and are late for practice in college you may get benched for a game or two and have to run poles; but in the pros, you are scratched from the lineup and the top brass sees that and questions it.  I know a player that was released for that. 
• and the very tangible getting 3 years of college "out of the way", while playing ball.

Last year my son played with a fellow drafted out of HS that was his age, their birthdays just days apart.  They were on the same team...so, you can get your rookie play in with the pros, or with 3 years of college, and be at the same spot.  (1st rounders excluded since they will be on the fast tract....but not always).

--------------------

3) The MLB baseball scholarship is spelled out in each individuals contract.  Yes, it may pay for 100% of the years remaining to graduate, but you may not want to wait until you retire.  You have 10 years to commence, and the start date is the date on the contract.   (The possible thought being after 10 years if you are still playing ball you are making big bucks and can pay your own way?)  Plus, the scholarship may be spelled out in a dollar amount based on current tuition rates....and tuition, room and board increase each year.  After 10 years, that dollar amount MLB offered to pay may not go as far.

And to make matters worse, many teams want to see your grades first so the tuition/room/board/books are reimbursable...meaning you have to cough up payment initially and submit receipts and grades to get reimbursed.  Vandy?  That is $37,000 per semester for incoming freshmen this year. ( I do know of several large schools (Clemson, Kentucky) that have funds set aside for their players to come back and take classes and graduate, so there is no expense to the those players.)   So, you cough up money for your tuition/room/board/books, whether that is $17,000 or $37,000 for the semester, submit your receipts and grades and the end of the semester, and the check that comes back about 27-33% less!  Taxes are taken out since it is considered income!

So parents, if you are thinking MLB is going to pay 100% of your child's education for 1-4 years....plan on paying at least 25-33% of the total amount, plus any increases each year.  Uncle Sam gets his part.  It isn't really a free ride.  But look at it as a 75% scholarship lol!

One of the least understood things about wealth is you only have to be right once to achieve it.   You can fail over and over until the time comes when you are right.  The most recognizable names in American history are people that went all in on something....Bezos, Gates, Edison, Carnegie, Morgan and Ford etc.   

So if you have the passion and the drive - take the 3/4 year shot.  If you fail - you have 9 more in you over 40 years.

The real unasked question is - if you get KO'd can and will you be able to get off the mat and keep going? 

And the answer to that for almost everyone is hard to know until you have to.  

luv baseball posted:

One of the least understood things about wealth is you only have to be right once to achieve it.   You can fail over and over until the time comes when you are right.  The most recognizable names in American history are people that went all in on something....Bezos, Gates, Edison, Carnegie, Morgan and Ford etc.   

So if you have the passion and the drive - take the 3/4 year shot.  If you fail - you have 9 more in you over 40 years.

The real unasked question is - if you get KO'd can and will you be able to get off the mat and keep going? 

And the answer to that for almost everyone is hard to know until you have to.  

Well Said!   Our Kids , and ourselves can all use this great advice. 

According to NCAA, of almost 500,000 HS baseball players, 7.8% will play 4 year NCAA baseball (a bit more than 2.2% D1) and 775 of that 35,000 will be drafted.

https://twitter.com/NCAA/statu...678378797936642?s=09