The average pitching speed at age X is this!

A guess on your 14/15 question.....kids moving into puberty/growth spurt at different ages.

I think you need to look at how these figures are sourced (individual pitching coach - recording day 1 speeds).  I would say the population is rather small and many of these day 1 speeds are recorded before any significant instruction on good pitching mechanics.  Go back and look at the "goal" speed for these ages - quite a bit higher than these averages.  I think the small population and how data gets captured (new student - day 1 pitch speed) may have something to do with the 14/15 sppeds not showing significant movement.  If you are looking for averages, I'd go try to find something that taps into a much, much larger population.  As for the older kids, I think the PG percentiles by class is a pretty good measuring stick.

I think the PG percentiles are more skewed than even this board when it comes to "averages".  I don't think the local Podunk ball team consisting of "average kids" pays $1000 to enter into the PG tourneys, I think they attract the best of the best, frankly because they ARE the best at what they do.

 

According to my 2020's profile the average 2020 is throwing 68, best is 90!  Yup, 8th grader throwing 90!

 

 

 

 

 

There is no way to determine an average....you are talking about hundreds of thousands of kids.  People point to outliers for some sort of frame work....a 15 year old throwing 88 is exceptionally rare as is a guy in college throwing 74 in college and having success.  Both exist but neither is anything but an outlier.  The average speed of a high school junior starting pitcher can be quit different in Los Angeles vs a small town in North Dakota.  So, there is no real way to determine an average....people can only look at what is directly around them.  

Once a kid is approaching physical maturity (say 15 or so) one can get a decent idea of where they are.  Throwing 65, you are slow, throwing 85 you are fast.  How guys develop, train, grow ect all play a role.  I have seen guys be soft tossers until they were half way through college and then pick up 9 mph.  I have seen plenty of pitchers who were bigger and stronger and more physically mature growing up, dominating youth ball and JV ball and by their senior year of high school everyone else caught up and there were not even a starter.  Some guys gain velocity on a slow and steady path, 2 mph like clock work, some make jumps and long platues, some just sort of stay where they starter. 

It is interesting to talk about but I would not worry about comparing oneself to specific outliers.  See where you are against the kind of standard measures if you will.  

I find John's numbers fairly close.  And I think when he says range he is speaking more about the range of average.  My experience gunning pitchers along the way is 60 is really good at 11, 65 at 12, 70 at 13.  Then l Ike leftside suggested it gets a little murky.  Those who have fully matured - and there are some - at age 14 might throw 85.  Those that haven't even started may be stuck at 65 to 70.  Once you hit those maturation years its so hard to predict.  But I think in general if you want to be a recruit you need to be 80mph after freshman year and 85 after sophomore year.  But ultimately if you can be upper 80's by senior year it really doesn't matter how you get there.

I would suggest that the PG class percentiles are not the "best of the best".  Class of 2017 is showing a best of 95 (outier) with an average of only 78.  That would imply that there are lots of 2017's throwing slower than 78 - but can also be the result of some prior year's speeds being pulled forward.  There can be a pretty wide age range in these classes (upwards of 24 months from youngest to oldest), but PG does help demonstrate the pretty side range.  You can look up individuals and start to get an idea where the 70th, 80th, etc. percentiles sit.  I'm not saying the 50% of 2017's throwing slower than 78 are highly successful (many of these may have stopped pitching altogether years ago but still have old speeds tracked) but they do represent some very average players who happen to throw at PG events.  There may be some data set elsewhere that may be better - and the data you can readily access off of the PG site is limited, but if you poke around enough on PG, including looking up individual players and scanning tournament pitching speeds, you do start to get a feel for a class' speed on the high end and low end.  I always figured something around 75% percentile meant you were hanging in there from a speed standpoint.  Looks like 82 (both RHP and LHP) appears to be the 75% for current 2017's.  

Very valid point that I had not thought of.  If a 2020 did a PG event in 2015 and never does another one, when the year is 2020 his 68mph will still be used in the averages for that year.

I would also suggest that in addition to absolute age, one take into account the kid's voice (high/low) and the coarseness of his whiskers.  If seen 15yo's with full beards singing backup to the Oak Ridge Boys and I've seen others who shave by having their cat Whiskers lick their chin and may still have a shot with the Vienna Boys Choir.  I'm thinking something around 17 is when much of this truly equalizes.  As for the speeds for the 11-13 group, I'm not sure this matters at all.  I think the best pitchers at that age are the ones who seem to have a knack for pitching - who have no problem with a kid crowding the plate or having a runner on first.  

CaCO3Girl - As I understand it, the old data stays in place forever.  That is why I had started to scan the tournament pitching speeds where every recorded pitcher has his top speed posted (requires subscription).  I do thinkg the 2017 average of 78 is a little misleading and I would image the folks at PG (and others that may have access to the full data set) can filter out the old data and get averages for pitching speeds captured during the previous 6 or 12 months (all top speeds appear to be time stamped).

In looking at my 2019's class percentile rankings, I've been thinking that this still represents an early view - only a small number of his class has actually been gunned at this point. So I've also looked at some 2016s and 2017s for comparison. It didn't occur to me that these percentiles would include throws from 2016s and 2017s when they were freshman (or before?).  It would seem logical that PG's class percentiles would drop measurements over a year old or so.  And, drop previous measurements for a player when he's gunned later.  How does this work?

 

My understanding is that the system at PG, at the free level, works on an if then computation. 

 

IF you are the class of 2016, and you have a data point (pitching speed/pop time/60 time) THEN you get included into the averages...even if that data point was from 2012! I think as 2017 said, in order to eliminate the extra data you would need a paid subscription.

 

My son did a PG event at 12u and there was a team from Texas that had 5 pitchers all pitching over 75mph, and 2 hitting over 80!  These were NOT normal 12 year olds!

I understand why the guy tallied up the numbers, because almost everyone wants to know how they compare to their peers, but does it really matter?  What would a person do with this information, quit pitching? Until you enter into the recruiting process, I don't see how it matters for the average kid. I do have a problem with his "Your goal should be" numbers. Generalizing a max velo based on age when younger than maybe 16 doesn't make sense to me... too many variables.

 

As far as the 14/15 years, my guess is that he doesn't have enough samples to make that statistically significant (could not find his raw data). Most kids are going to gain a few mph most years (but not all) as they develop physically. Note the max for 16 to 18 jumps 12 mph, but I doubt that many kids do that either.

As for "until you enter into the recruiting process"...there is a bit of a debate on when that actually is!

 

LOL, I have said for awhile now that the person who opens up an assessment shop for 6u-12u would make a killing in the Atlanta area!  I almost didn't include the numbers below 14u, but I figured it would be good for a laugh. Right now on the local threads they are talking about 10u baseball teams who recruit players from out of town and state...I wish I were kidding!

 

We plan to gather enough data over the next 5 years in most every age group that it may actually be meaningful in some ways.

 

The numbers in the article were based on the kids the writer has seen.  So it is a very small sampling and explains why the range and growth numbers are what they are.

 

At the risk of sounding stupid, I never thought about the PG percentages using an earlier year velocity with a current year average.  Often wondered why some of the averages seemed so low.  Especially after watching so many kids pitch and seldom seeing a pitcher below the 50 percentile.

 

I think that is something we need to fix in order to provide a truer picture of what we are seeing.  It certainly can't tell us what the true average is of all 2016 grads that attend PG events, when we are using what many of 2016's threw in 2013 or 2014.  Need to check that with our tech guys.

If you do start lopping off some old data, make sure you announce it ahead of time.  Basically everyone's percentile will fall when the guys that got gunned 2-3 years ago throwing 67 and never pitched again are excluded.  There could be some bruised egos when a kids percentile falls from 85% to 70%.  

 

On a serious note, there is no telling what findings and observations you could make with the data.  As Midatlanticdad mentioned, exactly what a single individual would do with that data is not real clear, however in a macro sense, there could be some good findings which could prove useful.

What's the debate? You've entering into the recruiting process when someone starts recruiting you.  

 

LOL, that simple huh?  Sorry, sore spot.  I know of four 8th graders with offers, and I know of 2 talented 2016's with nothing on the table.  I think if you have a kid that gets an offer, in ANY grade, you should immediately head to Vegas because your family is obviously VERY lucky!

well my son just turned 15 and is  a freshem, he just maxed out @ 89mph arm velo this week, along with 86mph bat exit speed from both sides of the plate ,

 

its all in the hard work , and my son is not a big kid

c2019,

 

I'm sure your son works hard, but there are thousands of kids that work extra hard and will never be able to throw a baseball 89 mph.

 

Point is, your son has some great natural ability.  Maybe good genes! I'd guess he is not the only one in the family that has or had a great arm.

 

Do we (PG) know who he is, yet?

 

have fun