The Cape 2020

Cape just tweeted they hope to start the summer on time, as scheduled. 

Personally, not that I have any special insight, I think that is a coin flip today. 

Talked to a friend at an above average mid major who has placed a handful of players in the league for this summer (and has in the past). Some are planned and placed initially on 10 day contracts and then with the draft and workloads/injuries many of those guys have a chance to stick. He said that at least 1 team is planning to keep his guy(s) that are initial 10 day guys and another team that is not. I agree with the "all leagues are going to be stronger" statement from the initial poster. 

I see the Valley League cancelled their season last night. I expect others to follow suit now that the first domino has fallen.

BrownIndian posted:

I see the Valley League cancelled their season last night. I expect others to follow suit now that the first domino has fallen.

Oh no.  I guess there is so much unknown and trying to get host families during a lock down is a nightmare.  

Ohhhhhhh. Fingers crossed that we don't see the whole summer implode.  

The Valley League factors were these:  Our governor has shut things down until June 10 so players couldn't even practice until then (and it could be extended), so allowing a week of practice since they haven't played in months, you are out of 30-35% of your season; concern for players catching the virus from a host family, or vice-versa, a horrid thing either way; small business sponsors are hurting financially; Virginia High Schools (VHSL) are considering a possible limited summer schedule if things improve and many teams play on high school fields so scheduling could get tricky; Virginia's "peak" is projected as late as mid-May so even if that is correct, there will be plenty to worry about all summer long.  We are close enough to DC that a lot of people in the Valley work with government agencies that are deeply involved in fighting the Corona virus, and the overwhelming belief is that it may get worse, much worse, before it gets better. Fans might come out in droves due to cabin fever, but being in crowds probably isn't a  a good idea as there's no way the virus will be 100% gone. Weighing all of this, we felt the safety of players, fans, and host families was paramount. One person catching the virus would not be worth the risk of playing. 

Hokie, A very "wise" decision. Be safe!

Bob

Thank you for being on this site, and providing this information.  It's very unfortunate, but it makes sense.  Do you have any sense of whether other summer leagues will also shut down?  They aren't all near DC, but they are all dealing with similar issues about contagion (imagine a team full of sick players), and small business troubles.

The first thing that will happen is people will go back to work in states with minimal COVID issues that have peaked and graphed out a certain distance on the down slope. Even then there will be social distancing. I can’t imagine how any sports could be played this summer. 

The NBA is trying to figure out if it’s possible to run playoffs in an isolated arena in Vegas in front of no fans. They’re not sure that’s even doable.

I am hoping and praying for advances in medicine which will allow us to have a more normal summer. I hope the rest of the leagues plan for the best case scenario and have a plan for worst case scenario.   

I wonder if some will cancel their contracts and restructure their leagues.  I wonder, nothing definitive, if they might say we will play but only use players that live near our facility.  My son is supposed to play near us and stay with us along with two other teammates.  I just think they may say we are bringing in kids who have their own lodging because of the number of host families that will drop out.  I cannot imagine a host family would consider taking in a player from one of the hot spots and a lot of the host families are older couples who fall into the vulnerable group.  I think if the leagues do not have ball but some of the bans are lifted then there will be spring up leagues by parents and others just to give guys a chance to play.   Even if it is not as competitive.

PitchingFan posted:

I wonder if some will cancel their contracts and restructure their leagues.  I wonder, nothing definitive, if they might say we will play but only use players that live near our facility.  My son is supposed to play near us and stay with us along with two other teammates.  I just think they may say we are bringing in kids who have their own lodging because of the number of host families that will drop out.  I cannot imagine a host family would consider taking in a player from one of the hot spots and a lot of the host families are older couples who fall into the vulnerable group.  I think if the leagues do not have ball but some of the bans are lifted then there will be spring up leagues by parents and others just to give guys a chance to play.   Even if it is not as competitive.

Hoping for an antibody test. Then we would know who had the virus, and who has not. This needs to happen ASAP to save our economy. Those that have active immunity are no longer a risk to themselves and others. 

This is just my expectation, based upon nothing other than our experience and discussions with the management of the 11 teams in our league. While our teams can disagree at times, it was 100% unanimous sentiment to cancel the season. A couple thought perhaps a 2-3 week "wait and see" period might work but we saw nothing but an ugly virus tide coming our way.     Based on today's information, and things could change, I will be surprised if any leagues play this summer.   I am a lawyer by trade (hate me if you must  ) and have clients that will not walk outside their homes for any reason and many are truly scared to be exposed, knowing that with an already compromised body, this virus is a one way ticket home.   With that feeling shared by many, I can't imagine anybody chancing going to public events for a long time.

There is no chance for any summer leagues this year, especially the Cape.   Location, Location, Location!  Additionally, no college coaches are letting their top returning guys go pitch with potentially 3 months off training or poor conditioning.

"I cannot imagine a host family would consider taking in a player from one of the hot spots"

Still in denial.  "Hot spots." So, tell me about those hot spots. Would that be where we're testing? Are there hot spots where we aren't testing?  How about just a spin of the roulette wheel - that's about as accurate.

UNTIL WE IMPLEMENT WIDESPREAD TESTING OF A REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF THE POPULATION  - THOSE WITH SYMPTOMS AND THOSE WITHOUT - we are fighting this battle completely and totally blind. And widespread testing is quite away off into the future.

For example, while California is often mentioned as having had some success, when you have tested amongst the lowest per capita in the US (like California), its sheer hubris to make any claim about success. (See, e.g., More than 1 million people tested for coronavirus in US, but access varies from state to state - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/0...id-19-screening.html)

Four weeks ago, we were told that 4 million tests A WEEK were here. As of yesterday, total test results were a bit above a million. Yesterday, about 115k test results were logged - the testing number has basically plateaued while the number of infections continues on an exponential path.

THE ENTIRE COUNTRY IS A HOT SPOT AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED THAT WAY UNTIL TESTING GETS SERIOUS.

The immunity question is more interesting. But, I'm surprised a consensus hasn't emerged: we just dont know if any immunity is conferred  AND, if so, for how long? 

Now, I find comfort in knowing that the entire human race's brain power is focused on this disease. Give our scientists, medical professionals, engineers time and we humans will figure it out. But when every day seems like a month, time is quite elastic.

Maybe a little denial as there are no cases in our county or within 30 miles of us, diagnosed.  I do think it came through here in January and February as we had a lot of cases of people with all the symptoms and were tested for flu and failed the flu test but they called it flu.  Even many put in ICU.  I just know there is a paranoia around here of the "hot spots" as the government and news call them.  I realize that most of the populated spots in the US are really hot spots because of closeness in every area and those of us in rural America are fortunate in this maybe because we are not being tested very much and our social distancing is easier than the highly populated areas.  We have social distancing as a lifestyle.  As one of my friends said, I live in social distancing in the tree stand, turkey blind, and fishing boat.  I work with four guys every day and won't go anywhere where there is more than 25 in any confined area.  We have a close set of friends and do not ever get in a crowd of more than 100 people at any event.  So yes, my definition of hot spot would be different than many.  I can't think of a time that in the past 3 months that I have been in a crowd of more than 100-200 people at any given time.  Even at the college game I stayed off to myself and never sat shoulder to shoulder with anyone.  Not minimizing the results of it but as I told someone this morning it is different when you don't know anyone who has had it for sure and you have no confirmed cases within a 30 minute drive. 

"We have a close set of friends and do not ever get in a crowd of more than 100 people at any event."

So, you have a test which can determine which of those 100 are infected?  Which one is the asymptomatic spreader? Which one went to the choir practice a few days before, sat six feet apart, but somehow got infected? (Yes, it's happened with multiple dead so far.)

Do know which of those 100 are observing social distancing? How? Is there a different transmission mechanism for close friends, as opposed to the cashier at Safeway?

You really dont get it. If the entire country would observe the basic PH rules, this would be over in two weeks. Obviously, that is impossible as we need firefighters, police, hospital workers, Amazon fulfillment centers all up and operating; but if everyone else (i.e., non-essentials) did observe PH rules, 4 weeks is what it would take.

Now tell me how long it would take if everyone socialized with close friends and in groups limited to 100? Perhaps when herd immunity arrives is when that time arrives.

Doing a little change of behavior doesnt and wont cut it. Doing a huge change of behaviors will.

Normally, I could care less what someone does which doesnt impact me. But, here, you've just written that you've changed behavior, but still simply ignore health experts.

I am not picking on you; where I'm hunkered down (in a rural area), I see groups of people jogging, biking, hiking, with not a care in the world. Its because of these people that we will be sheltered for 2 months, three months, instead of 4 weeks. And everyday were sheltered, is another day ALL OF US blow through our savings.

Weeks ago, I pondered how bad it would be to follow Italy's track. Today, I wish we were following Italy.

Americans are a skeptical, ornery people who learn slowly. It appears our lesson will be 100k dead in just a few months.

We are only as strong as our weakest Public Health link.

Miswrote or misread.  I’ve not been in a group of 10 for last month.  I’m saying we rarely ever, even before this, are in a group of 100.  I’ve not seen any groups here other than grocery Lowe’s or Walmart.  All fields shut down, all churches going fb live, no sports for three weeks, no hangout spots or entertainment open for three weeks.  We are doing what we are supposed to do but don’t see the effects of Coronavirus other than tv.  My fear is that because we have none, people will give up the isolation early.  No offense taken.  We are doing it right, right now, because it is easier in rural America.  We live in somewhat isolation.  

The rear of a hospital one block from our house. This stuff is getting real.