The Clock and 2021s

Many D3’s don’t offer spots or commitments until November.

Many JUCO’s are just getting started with hardcore recruiting in October.

@3and2Fastball posted:

Many D3’s don’t offer spots or commitments until November.

Many JUCO’s are just getting started with hardcore recruiting in October.

Son had a high school teammate (also a catcher) who committed to a D3 around March his senior year.

The answer is no. /thread

Huh? Not even close. NLI's are in November. Mine did not commit until May 1st*....

* Complicated by mono but none-the-less lots of conversations in the winter. 

Same with one of my boys. Had three excellent HA D3 options during Regular decision and committed when he sent in his deposit in April.  Wasn't the traditional path which he tried to take but that's how it finally worked out.  Other kid was ED, though.

No one thinks that the landscape has changed this year and accelerated the clock?

To be clear, I don’t have the answers.  None of us do. On one hand, anyone saying that it’s not over for a 2021 after October is exactly right. But that’s a surface level perspective of the matter. Will some 2021s get offers and commit after 10/31?  Without question. But no one can attest to how many that will actually be. Only that it’ll be less than usual. Some people will win the Powerball in the next year but that’s no reason to believe you have a good shot at winning it.  It’s probably smartest to handle your finances over the next year under the premise that you won’t win it.

I absolutely agree that some 2021s will commit after 10/31, but that’s not a message I’d want to see any 2021 player/parent adopt at this point or even know. Like forget you even heard that and conduct your efforts as if 10/31 is it.  The whole “under promise, over deliver” bit. My 2021 committed back in July and it’s hard to describe how grateful I am for that.  I am really worried for so many of my son’s peers who I’m confident have the desire and talent to play some level of college ball. Am I worrying for no reason? Ask me in August. 

I’ll throw something out there that I’d love get thoughts and predictions on. This is far from a perfect experiment, but it’s close enough to generate some worthwhile dialogue I think. 

We’re in a small state so our PBR rankings only go up to 100. 

Of the 100 ranked 2020s, only 19 didn’t go on to try college ball. About 80 committed.

Of the 100 ranked 2021s, only 30 are committed as of now.  What would be your guess as to how many 2021s here end up committing?  Again, it’s not perfect apples to apples due to so many variables, but is anyone confident that about 80 of them will?

Isn't there a potential overhang of current "COVID Juniors"....guys who are college seniors (2018 HS grads) who could have two years of eligibility left?  I would think that coaches would want to decide on keeping some of these guys before committing to 2021s...especially those who need to win now.   

College rosters are deep normally and they are deeper now then anyone has seen. Simple supply and demand, total number of spots stayed the same, less players left due smaller draft and extended eligibility rules...same amount of freshman moving forward. This ain't rocket science folks a high tide lifts all boats as they say. 

21's at the bottom end of the range are going to get pinched but honestly the bottom end of the range of every class gets pinched IMO

@DanJ posted:

I’ll throw something out there that I’d love get thoughts and predictions on. This is far from a perfect experiment, but it’s close enough to generate some worthwhile dialogue I think. 

We’re in a small state so our PBR rankings only go up to 100. 

Of the 100 ranked 2020s, only 19 didn’t go on to try college ball. About 80 committed.

Of the 100 ranked 2021s, only 30 are committed as of now.  What would be your guess as to how many 2021s here end up committing?  Again, it’s not perfect apples to apples due to so many variables, but is anyone confident that about 80 of them will?

Since it's Top 100, I would hope that 65 or more commit. If not, then there really is no room at the inn this year.

Some people have hit on it already, but here's where I see alot of 2021 kids falling. Alot of really good players atleast in Texas went JUCO due to the backlog of College covid seniors. What I see happening is that alot of colleges atleast in the South are going to be pulling from your JUCO's in the South because I can tell you they're loaded with talent and after a year or two are battle tested and proven. This will push alot of your 2021 kids back to having to go JUCO route if they want to eventually land at a D1. The next couple of years you'll see a high percentage of D1 programs with JUCO kids. Alot already pull from JUCO, but it will be an even higher amount now. My son's JUCO has 7 pitchers 90 plus and by the Spring he said probably 10-12. JUCO ball the next couple of years will be just as competitive as D1.

The pyramid trickle down will continue. I know 5 kids all relatively local who have transferred into a local D2 power from 2018 grad class, all of them were D1 last year, that school already had a full roster...those guys either quit or move to a D3 or different D2. And so it goes. 

@TXdad2019 posted:

Some people have hit on it already, but here's where I see alot of 2021 kids falling. Alot of really good players atleast in Texas went JUCO due to the backlog of College covid seniors. What I see happening is that alot of colleges atleast in the South are going to be pulling from your JUCO's in the South because I can tell you they're loaded with talent and after a year or two are battle tested and proven. This will push alot of your 2021 kids back to having to go JUCO route if they want to eventually land at a D1. The next couple of years you'll see a high percentage of D1 programs with JUCO kids. Alot already pull from JUCO, but it will be an even higher amount now. My son's JUCO has 7 pitchers 90 plus and by the Spring he said probably 10-12. JUCO ball the next couple of years will be just as competitive as D1.

Thinking out loud here...

If the 2021s go Juco then does that hose the 2023s when the Juco kids are all moving on to 4 year schools?

@Francis7 posted:

Thinking out loud here...

If the 2021s go Juco then does that hose the 2023s when the Juco kids are all moving on to 4 year schools?

It may be different in other parts of the country. In the South, if you look at rosters, alot of D1's already pull from JUCO. JUCO in the south is very strong. the elite 2021 will still find d1's, but the rest are going to find themselves struggling. Mine is a D1 bounce back. His D1 wasn't a good fit and went JUCO so he didn't have to sit out a year. Most of the incoming Freshmen from HS 2020 will be redshirted this year due the amount of talent at JUCO level this year. The returning JUCO kids (COVID Freshmen) will most likely leave this year, but will still be bottled up at JUCO level. I'm hearing MLB draft will never go back to 40 rounds and will be around 20 rounds for now on. It's going to be tough in the future baseball wise.

@Francis7 Yes, I don't see how it CAN'T impact the 2023s in that manner.  Assuming it will, we can speculate the same relationship happening between the 2020 JUCOs and 2022s.  This is one of the first specific impact scenarios I've seen written out and I think it's profound in a way.  Most everyone is only talking at a high level when it comes to this.  We all know that some water is going to end up on the floor, but I've yet to see people dig deeper like this and I doubt most coaches are thinking this long term. My guess is that most are taking a "we'll cross that bridge when it comes to it" approach.  The onus is on us and the players to speculate.  All the coaches have to do is pick the best talent that is available at the time.  Sadly, they don't need to care much about the lower and middle tier guys on their rosters as much.  The top tier pipeline will be far more robust than it's ever been before.

I think this specific question is profound because it's only one possible/probable specific scenario.  if we spend the time, we'll come up with many more.  It makes me remember an old looney tune (I think) cartoon where the character finds a leak in a dam, so they plug the hole up with their finger.  But another leak springs, so in goes a finger from the other hand.  So on and so forth.  Something like this.

The fingers and toes are the top tier players and the water on the ground is players who are not top tier.  While this is always the way it works, we can't yet see exactly what the water on the ground consists of.  My fear is that many middle tier players will end up on the ground.  Far more than ever have before.

If you're good enough you'll play. What I see happening is only a handful of meaningful contributors sticking around each year. This year was different as seniors had their season cut short, a lot were asked back to make it right. After this coming season the graduating guys will have played their senior season, the everyday lineup guys and weekend arms will be asked to come back but a lot will be told if they want to use their final season of eligibility they are free to transfer. 

I think the 2021 class will be light, but I see things going back to normal for '22 and 23. The juco market will obviously affect that but a school that didn't take a ton of jucos likely still won't. Schools that were juco transfer heavy still will be. 

A 2021 can easily find a home after October. In fact I think it may be more likely this year considering there is less traveling and in person recruiting. D1 level less likely of course, but a juco will never pass on a late bloomer and D2s and D3s are still active anyway. Like others have said don't bank on it. I wouldn't wait until December to get video out, but it's definitely possible. 

@PABaseball posted:

If you're good enough you'll play. What I see happening is only a handful of meaningful contributors sticking around each year. This year was different as seniors had their season cut short, a lot were asked back to make it right. After this coming season the graduating guys will have played their senior season, the everyday lineup guys and weekend arms will be asked to come back but a lot will be told if they want to use their final season of eligibility they are free to transfer. 

I think the 2021 class will be light, but I see things going back to normal for '22 and 23. The juco market will obviously affect that but a school that didn't take a ton of jucos likely still won't. Schools that were juco transfer heavy still will be. 

A 2021 can easily find a home after October. In fact I think it may be more likely this year considering there is less traveling and in person recruiting. D1 level less likely of course, but a juco will never pass on a late bloomer and D2s and D3s are still active anyway. Like others have said don't bank on it. I wouldn't wait until December to get video out, but it's definitely possible. 

I agree, but if your a coach and you have a 20' and 21' that were successful at the JUCO level that was loaded the last two years, do you skip them for a unproven 22' and 23' out of HS? That's going to be the issue for guys IMO. I guess it will determine what each individual college is looking for though. I forsee alot of redshirts being tagged on incoming guys out of HS for the next couple of years.  

@TXdad2019 posted:

It may be different in other parts of the country. In the South, if you look at rosters, alot of D1's already pull from JUCO. JUCO in the south is very strong. the elite 2021 will still find d1's, but the rest are going to find themselves struggling. Mine is a D1 bounce back. His D1 wasn't a good fit and went JUCO so he didn't have to sit out a year. Most of the incoming Freshmen from HS 2020 will be redshirted this year due the amount of talent at JUCO level this year. The returning JUCO kids (COVID Freshmen) will most likely leave this year, but will still be bottled up at JUCO level. I'm hearing MLB draft will never go back to 40 rounds and will be around 20 rounds for now on. It's going to be tough in the future baseball wise.

A few years ago I read 84% of American MLBers come from the first ten rounds of the draft. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. If 94% of MLBers come from the top twenty rounds why have rounds 21-40? 

Chances are players drafted after round twenty are late blooming pitchers. These players would be better off signing as free agents with an organization they’re more likely to rise to the majors than be stuck in one organization until released.