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Seems like everywhere I go someone is bringing up the percentage of playing at the next level.  Youth ball to High School, high school to college or pro, college to pro, minor league to major league. 1%, 2%.10%, etc.

 

Of course the odds are always greatly against making it to the next level. What's new, do people think it is supposed to be easy.  If the odds are bad should a young person give up or lower their goals?

 

As far as having goals, what about those who want to be a MLB GM?  There's only 30 of them.  How about CEO of a fortune 500 company?  How about the odds of becoming a multi-millionaire?  Heck you want great odds?  Look into the fast food industry!  

 

Bottom line...at any given time there are 750 players in the Major Leagues.  750 people will fill those positions with another 750 or more knocking on the door. There are thousands of spots on college teams.  Surely everyone knows there are not enough spots open at the next level for every kid that plays high school baseball. And should we subtract those that have no desire to play at the next level, that would lower he odds considerably.

 

Some that talk about the odds, maybe rightfully so, claim it is all about being realistic.  Well, I'm sure glad that many don't want to be realistic or we wouldn't have a next level.  I look at the odds like this... I'm only interested in what my odds are, don't care what everyone else's odds are!  Actually why even care what the odds are? And if you fail to reach the top, is that the end? Shoot for the moon or you won't get there.

 

Not sure what others think about this...  I believe the odds are not so bad if you have talent.  The odds are nearly impossible if you lack talent. In other words, the odds are different from one individual to another.

 

Anyone else see it that way?

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I like to think that the discussions about the odds of playing at the next level do two things:

 

First they do add a little reality.  I have a ninth grader who is just starting to really think about baseball beyond high school.  We were on our way to a work out the other day and he ask me; "Whats my plan B?"  Well, I know when I was 14, I did not even have a plan A, never mind a plan B.  But it shows he understands that there is the possibility he does not make the cut at some point.

 

Second, it makes those kids with the desire realize how hard they need to work.  My son, like many talented players never had to work that hard at the younger ages.  He always practiced hard, because he loved being there.  But he never worried about be good enough. Over the past year, he has been fortunate enough to play in some top national events and see the skills of the players around him.  He also has had the chance to talk with some coaches and pro players and hear from them, what it takes.  Some kids will then decide they just don't have the skill and/or desire to work that hard.  Others will take it as a challenge and it will push them like they need to be pushed.  I am sure all of us on this board hope our sons are the ones who take the challenge.  (And have the skills to go with it.)

 

 

Great post PG.  Personally, I have always looked at odds as a motivator, the slimmer the odds, the better.  Makes reaching the desired goal even more personally satisfying.  Maybe I'm just the glass is half full kind of guy....but I think that anything is possible, given you have some talent and are willing to put in the work...and thrive off of being told "you can't do it" or "you'll never make it"   AND, no matter what the odds are, if you even take the time to contemplate, thus introducing doubt into you mind, over the fact that someone tells you you can't beat the odds, then you probably aren't of the right mind set to overcome and achieve in the first place. That's why the only the best and most talented move, IMO

"As far as having goals, what about those who want to be a MLB GM?  There's only 30 of them.  How about CEO of a fortune 500 company?  How about the odds of becoming a multi-millionaire?  Heck you want great odds?  Look into the fast food industry!"

 

This is a great perspective.  I like this way of thinking.  However, with respect to odds of playing in the MLB, the reason I would discuss this with my son is that it is a very binary situation with respect to making a living - if he makes it he's a millionaire, if not he struggles financially.  In comparison, he may strive to make CEO and fail, but if he ends up a VP, or Director, etc he can still have a financially successful career.  So while the odds of making CEO of a Fortune 500 company may be lower than making the MLB, someone can "fail" in this goal and still end up quite successful.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

  Actually why even care what the odds are? 

To be better informed?

 

Students who are not athletes are checking the chances that various SAT and GPA levels will qualify them for admission to various schools. (Bad or unnecessary thing?) Baseball coaches all over the world think about righty-lefty matchups every day. (I think they would be remiss if they didn't consider it, regardless of how they choose) Bill James, well you get the idea.

 

Not preaching to anyone else. For me, I prefer to have the knowledge...in this case odds....than not to have the knowledge...before making decisions.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Not sure what others think about this...  I believe the odds are not so bad if you have talent.  The odds are nearly impossible if you lack talent. In other words, the odds are different from one individual to another.

 

Anyone else see it that way?

I agree with this. I think the odds of success for a talented player (student, artist, musician, salesman) are better than for untalented ones.

Last edited by Green Light
PG what a great perspective. I am in total agreement with your post. My wife and I have had this exact discussion. She fears if junior does not make it to the next level he will be "crushed". My thought is why would I ever tell him "you may not make it". Obviously school is vitally important and the education is a safety net of sorts, but I don't want my son ever to think "what if I don't make it". Every bit of energy directed at the negative thoughts takes away from the positive. JMO. I especially like the way you suggested that one should shoot for the moon lest they NEVER get there. Anyway, it kind of reminds me of the saying in golf " a putt that goes past the hole has x% of going in but a putt that is short has absolutely 0% of going in.

Several years ago there was a six part cable series on minor league prospects. The show highlighted six top D"backs AAA players at Tucson. The players were Carlos Quentin, Chris Young, Dustin Nippert, Brian Barden, Casey Daigle and Bill Murphy.

 

Quentin and Young became full time MLBers. They have both played in the all star game. Nippert had a couple of short call ups with the Rangers. Barden had short call ups with the D'backs, Cards and Marlins. Daigle had a couple of short callups with the D'backs. Murphy had a couple of short call ups with the Dodgers and Jays. Daigle is most known for his best catch in Tucson. He's Mr Jenny Finch.

 

So out of six AAA top prospects only two stuck in the majors. I remember the D'backs GM saying is,"Pro baseball is a poor career choice. 2% of minor leaguers will see the majors. 1% will stick long enough to earn a living. 100% believe it will be them."

Last edited by RJM

Why would anyone assume that the player who fails to succeed at baseball will be unsuccessful in life?  I personally know several wealthy explayers who became very successful after their playing days ended. We all know nonbaseball players that are unsuccessful.

 

The odds on being successful in life are different from one person to the next. Just like baseball. 

 

Personally I think success is anyone that's happy and doing what they want. Most people never reach that goal. 

 

Anyway here is my point...

 

One young person has a goal of becoming a brain surgeon. He has the intelligence and desire to accomplish that.  The money it costs will be a great investment.  He has no talent or interest in being a baseball player or to participate in any sport beyond high school.  The odds on him becoming a doctor are very good.  The odds on him being a professional baseball player is ZERO.  Not 2%, not 1%, but ZERO %

 

Another young person has a goal of being a Major League player.  He has the talent and desire to accomplish that.  He lacks the intelligence and interest to become a brain surgeon. The odds on him making the Major Leagues is better than the overall odds. The odds on becoming a brain surgeon or even a doctor are ZERO!

 

Different odds for each individual! The overall percentages are not correct. Reality (the odds) is not really real.

The overall percentages are correct. That's what they are...overall percentages.

 

The way someone can use overall percentages is to compare yourself against the norm. This is a waste of time if we are talking about the lottery because there are no variables involved.The overall percentage chance for winning tells the whole story, period.

 

But if you are looking to get into College X, and the admissions rate is 25%, and the average GPA is 3.5, and the average SAT is 1700...anyone could plug in their own academic stats and draw a presumption about whether their chances were better or worse than 25%. Or they could decide to apply or not, without this information.

 

If anyone out there is interpreting overall stats to be applicable to every single individual, then I would caution against that. After all, the overall 2012 American League batting average was .255. Odds of getting a hit, based on the definition of AB, was 25.5%. But we all know that everyone did not hit .255. Better hitters hit better, worse hitters hit worse. .255 was just the overall average

Last edited by Green Light

Another %... 6% of high school seniors will go on to play college baseball.   Here is a question... What would the % of those seniors that have the desire and talent to play college baseball that do play college baseball.  Obviously that would be much higher than 6%.

 

I would guess that more than half of all HS senior baseball players have no intention of playing in college.  So why would they be part of the odds?  Then there is the other seniors who simply don't have the talent to play college baseball.  Subtract them from the odds. So the true odds would be... The number of high school seniors that have the talent and desire to play college baseball, that actually get the opportunity to play college baseball.  Of course, I have no idea what % that would be, but I'm positive it is much more than 6%. While those who lack talent and/or don't want to play college baseball would be 0%.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Another %... 6% of high school seniors will go on to play college baseball.   Here is a question... What would the % of those seniors that have the desire and talent to play college baseball that do play college baseball.  Obviously that would be much higher than 6%.

 

I would guess that more than half of all HS senior baseball players have no intention of playing in college.  So why would they be part of the odds?  Then there is the other seniors who simply don't have the talent to play college baseball.  Subtract them from the odds. So the true odds would be... The number of high school seniors that have the talent and desire to play college baseball, that actually get the opportunity to play college baseball.  Of course, I have no idea what % that would be, but I'm positive it is much more than 6%. While those who lack talent and/or don't want to play college baseball would be 0%.

Correct.

Love the message.  I think it is useful for kids to see the initial set of odds to understand that it will take great effort, ability and work ethic.  But I agree it is also useful to identify that the odds improve significantly when you separate those with and without the desire.  But most important, the message tells a young player they have a great deal of control over reducing those odds in a big way.

 

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Another %... 6% of high school seniors will go on to play college baseball.   Here is a question... What would the % of those seniors that have the desire and talent to play college baseball that do play college baseball.  Obviously that would be much higher than 6%.

 

I would guess that more than half of all HS senior baseball players have no intention of playing in college.  So why would they be part of the odds?  Then there is the other seniors who simply don't have the talent to play college baseball.  Subtract them from the odds. So the true odds would be... The number of high school seniors that have the talent and desire to play college baseball, that actually get the opportunity to play college baseball.  Of course, I have no idea what % that would be, but I'm positive it is much more than 6%. While those who lack talent and/or don't want to play college baseball would be 0%.

You're leaving out one group from your calculations, I believe.  There are some kids who may have the talent and desire to play at the next level but just can't or won't pull the grades required.

It would be interesting to know the % of high school seniors that truly desire to play, have the talent to play, are willing to accept the college, can afford college and qualify for admittance... That actually end up playing college baseball? I'm guessing it is a fairly high %.

 

I know there are a lot of kids who decide to attend a certain college and not play rather than go to one they could play at.  I wouldn't count that as part of the "odds" either. They could have but chose not to.... Shouldn't count If trying to figure out the true odds.

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