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Seems like everywhere I go someone is bringing up the percentage of playing at the next level.  Youth ball to High School, high school to college or pro, college to pro, minor league to major league. 1%, 2%.10%, etc.

 

Of course the odds are always greatly against making it to the next level. What's new, do people think it is supposed to be easy.  If the odds are bad should a young person give up or lower their goals?

 

As far as having goals, what about those who want to be a MLB GM?  There's only 30 of them.  How about CEO of a fortune 500 company?  How about the odds of becoming a multi-millionaire?  Heck you want great odds?  Look into the fast food industry!  

 

Bottom line...at any given time there are 750 players in the Major Leagues.  750 people will fill those positions with another 750 or more knocking on the door. There are thousands of spots on college teams.  Surely everyone knows there are not enough spots open at the next level for every kid that plays high school baseball. And should we subtract those that have no desire to play at the next level, that would lower he odds considerably.

 

Some that talk about the odds, maybe rightfully so, claim it is all about being realistic.  Well, I'm sure glad that many don't want to be realistic or we wouldn't have a next level.  I look at the odds like this... I'm only interested in what my odds are, don't care what everyone else's odds are!  Actually why even care what the odds are? And if you fail to reach the top, is that the end? Shoot for the moon or you won't get there.

 

Not sure what others think about this...  I believe the odds are not so bad if you have talent.  The odds are nearly impossible if you lack talent. In other words, the odds are different from one individual to another.

 

Anyone else see it that way?

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I like to think that the discussions about the odds of playing at the next level do two things:

 

First they do add a little reality.  I have a ninth grader who is just starting to really think about baseball beyond high school.  We were on our way to a work out the other day and he ask me; "Whats my plan B?"  Well, I know when I was 14, I did not even have a plan A, never mind a plan B.  But it shows he understands that there is the possibility he does not make the cut at some point.

 

Second, it makes those kids with the desire realize how hard they need to work.  My son, like many talented players never had to work that hard at the younger ages.  He always practiced hard, because he loved being there.  But he never worried about be good enough. Over the past year, he has been fortunate enough to play in some top national events and see the skills of the players around him.  He also has had the chance to talk with some coaches and pro players and hear from them, what it takes.  Some kids will then decide they just don't have the skill and/or desire to work that hard.  Others will take it as a challenge and it will push them like they need to be pushed.  I am sure all of us on this board hope our sons are the ones who take the challenge.  (And have the skills to go with it.)

 

 

Great post PG.  Personally, I have always looked at odds as a motivator, the slimmer the odds, the better.  Makes reaching the desired goal even more personally satisfying.  Maybe I'm just the glass is half full kind of guy....but I think that anything is possible, given you have some talent and are willing to put in the work...and thrive off of being told "you can't do it" or "you'll never make it"   AND, no matter what the odds are, if you even take the time to contemplate, thus introducing doubt into you mind, over the fact that someone tells you you can't beat the odds, then you probably aren't of the right mind set to overcome and achieve in the first place. That's why the only the best and most talented move, IMO

"As far as having goals, what about those who want to be a MLB GM?  There's only 30 of them.  How about CEO of a fortune 500 company?  How about the odds of becoming a multi-millionaire?  Heck you want great odds?  Look into the fast food industry!"

 

This is a great perspective.  I like this way of thinking.  However, with respect to odds of playing in the MLB, the reason I would discuss this with my son is that it is a very binary situation with respect to making a living - if he makes it he's a millionaire, if not he struggles financially.  In comparison, he may strive to make CEO and fail, but if he ends up a VP, or Director, etc he can still have a financially successful career.  So while the odds of making CEO of a Fortune 500 company may be lower than making the MLB, someone can "fail" in this goal and still end up quite successful.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

  Actually why even care what the odds are? 

To be better informed?

 

Students who are not athletes are checking the chances that various SAT and GPA levels will qualify them for admission to various schools. (Bad or unnecessary thing?) Baseball coaches all over the world think about righty-lefty matchups every day. (I think they would be remiss if they didn't consider it, regardless of how they choose) Bill James, well you get the idea.

 

Not preaching to anyone else. For me, I prefer to have the knowledge...in this case odds....than not to have the knowledge...before making decisions.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Not sure what others think about this...  I believe the odds are not so bad if you have talent.  The odds are nearly impossible if you lack talent. In other words, the odds are different from one individual to another.

 

Anyone else see it that way?

I agree with this. I think the odds of success for a talented player (student, artist, musician, salesman) are better than for untalented ones.

Last edited by Green Light
PG what a great perspective. I am in total agreement with your post. My wife and I have had this exact discussion. She fears if junior does not make it to the next level he will be "crushed". My thought is why would I ever tell him "you may not make it". Obviously school is vitally important and the education is a safety net of sorts, but I don't want my son ever to think "what if I don't make it". Every bit of energy directed at the negative thoughts takes away from the positive. JMO. I especially like the way you suggested that one should shoot for the moon lest they NEVER get there. Anyway, it kind of reminds me of the saying in golf " a putt that goes past the hole has x% of going in but a putt that is short has absolutely 0% of going in.

Several years ago there was a six part cable series on minor league prospects. The show highlighted six top D"backs AAA players at Tucson. The players were Carlos Quentin, Chris Young, Dustin Nippert, Brian Barden, Casey Daigle and Bill Murphy.

 

Quentin and Young became full time MLBers. They have both played in the all star game. Nippert had a couple of short call ups with the Rangers. Barden had short call ups with the D'backs, Cards and Marlins. Daigle had a couple of short callups with the D'backs. Murphy had a couple of short call ups with the Dodgers and Jays. Daigle is most known for his best catch in Tucson. He's Mr Jenny Finch.

 

So out of six AAA top prospects only two stuck in the majors. I remember the D'backs GM saying is,"Pro baseball is a poor career choice. 2% of minor leaguers will see the majors. 1% will stick long enough to earn a living. 100% believe it will be them."

Last edited by RJM

Why would anyone assume that the player who fails to succeed at baseball will be unsuccessful in life?  I personally know several wealthy explayers who became very successful after their playing days ended. We all know nonbaseball players that are unsuccessful.

 

The odds on being successful in life are different from one person to the next. Just like baseball. 

 

Personally I think success is anyone that's happy and doing what they want. Most people never reach that goal. 

 

Anyway here is my point...

 

One young person has a goal of becoming a brain surgeon. He has the intelligence and desire to accomplish that.  The money it costs will be a great investment.  He has no talent or interest in being a baseball player or to participate in any sport beyond high school.  The odds on him becoming a doctor are very good.  The odds on him being a professional baseball player is ZERO.  Not 2%, not 1%, but ZERO %

 

Another young person has a goal of being a Major League player.  He has the talent and desire to accomplish that.  He lacks the intelligence and interest to become a brain surgeon. The odds on him making the Major Leagues is better than the overall odds. The odds on becoming a brain surgeon or even a doctor are ZERO!

 

Different odds for each individual! The overall percentages are not correct. Reality (the odds) is not really real.

The overall percentages are correct. That's what they are...overall percentages.

 

The way someone can use overall percentages is to compare yourself against the norm. This is a waste of time if we are talking about the lottery because there are no variables involved.The overall percentage chance for winning tells the whole story, period.

 

But if you are looking to get into College X, and the admissions rate is 25%, and the average GPA is 3.5, and the average SAT is 1700...anyone could plug in their own academic stats and draw a presumption about whether their chances were better or worse than 25%. Or they could decide to apply or not, without this information.

 

If anyone out there is interpreting overall stats to be applicable to every single individual, then I would caution against that. After all, the overall 2012 American League batting average was .255. Odds of getting a hit, based on the definition of AB, was 25.5%. But we all know that everyone did not hit .255. Better hitters hit better, worse hitters hit worse. .255 was just the overall average

Last edited by Green Light

Another %... 6% of high school seniors will go on to play college baseball.   Here is a question... What would the % of those seniors that have the desire and talent to play college baseball that do play college baseball.  Obviously that would be much higher than 6%.

 

I would guess that more than half of all HS senior baseball players have no intention of playing in college.  So why would they be part of the odds?  Then there is the other seniors who simply don't have the talent to play college baseball.  Subtract them from the odds. So the true odds would be... The number of high school seniors that have the talent and desire to play college baseball, that actually get the opportunity to play college baseball.  Of course, I have no idea what % that would be, but I'm positive it is much more than 6%. While those who lack talent and/or don't want to play college baseball would be 0%.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Another %... 6% of high school seniors will go on to play college baseball.   Here is a question... What would the % of those seniors that have the desire and talent to play college baseball that do play college baseball.  Obviously that would be much higher than 6%.

 

I would guess that more than half of all HS senior baseball players have no intention of playing in college.  So why would they be part of the odds?  Then there is the other seniors who simply don't have the talent to play college baseball.  Subtract them from the odds. So the true odds would be... The number of high school seniors that have the talent and desire to play college baseball, that actually get the opportunity to play college baseball.  Of course, I have no idea what % that would be, but I'm positive it is much more than 6%. While those who lack talent and/or don't want to play college baseball would be 0%.

Correct.

Love the message.  I think it is useful for kids to see the initial set of odds to understand that it will take great effort, ability and work ethic.  But I agree it is also useful to identify that the odds improve significantly when you separate those with and without the desire.  But most important, the message tells a young player they have a great deal of control over reducing those odds in a big way.

 

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Another %... 6% of high school seniors will go on to play college baseball.   Here is a question... What would the % of those seniors that have the desire and talent to play college baseball that do play college baseball.  Obviously that would be much higher than 6%.

 

I would guess that more than half of all HS senior baseball players have no intention of playing in college.  So why would they be part of the odds?  Then there is the other seniors who simply don't have the talent to play college baseball.  Subtract them from the odds. So the true odds would be... The number of high school seniors that have the talent and desire to play college baseball, that actually get the opportunity to play college baseball.  Of course, I have no idea what % that would be, but I'm positive it is much more than 6%. While those who lack talent and/or don't want to play college baseball would be 0%.

You're leaving out one group from your calculations, I believe.  There are some kids who may have the talent and desire to play at the next level but just can't or won't pull the grades required.

It would be interesting to know the % of high school seniors that truly desire to play, have the talent to play, are willing to accept the college, can afford college and qualify for admittance... That actually end up playing college baseball? I'm guessing it is a fairly high %.

 

I know there are a lot of kids who decide to attend a certain college and not play rather than go to one they could play at.  I wouldn't count that as part of the "odds" either. They could have but chose not to.... Shouldn't count If trying to figure out the true odds.

The odds of playing at the next level were never a discussion point in our household. My son played the game because he loved it and wished to continue to play. He is happiest when on the field playing baseball, next to that is probably training and preparing his body to play baseball.

He plays because that is where he finds joy. He has generally always had a reasonable understanding of where he stacked up talent wise. He aways knew whether he could compete, he never found himself in a situation where he did not feel fully capable of competing.
 
It never mattered what level of ball he was playing, he knew he could compete at each level and knew that he would make it to the next level. It was never a question. There has never been a plan B. He was always all in 100%, sort of like the invading army burning their ships, no way but forward.
 
Things are much tougher now, yet he continues to know he can compete at his current level of play and expects to make it to the next level. Odds do not come into play. He does what he does...perhaps at some point he will not have the opportunity to make it to the next level one day. If that day ever arrives, he will deal with that day then. He does not calculate odds. That is counter productive to achieving his goal. A distraction, a reason to fail, an excuse...
 
There really is no plan B. One day he may need a new plan, but it will not be a plan B, it will be his plan. Achieving greatness, and anyone past college has achieved something very special, can not be accomplished with a divided mind, unless you have truly superior gifts.
 
It is all in, or not really worth the effort, at least for my son.
 
And, money has nothing to do with it in all reality. He does not play the game dreaming of great wealth, although he would like to be able to pay his bills. But he plays the game dreaming of his next at bat, his next diving catch or double play ball. The ball he hits off the wall and legs out for a triple or the ball that leaves the field of play. It is purely for the love of the game that he plays.
 
Odds of play never ever factored into loving the game.




Last edited by floridafan

floridafan,

 

That is precisely why I have always liked your son. He is a "true" baseball player.  Great post!

 

BTW, Whenever that day comes for him to hang it up (That day comes for everyone) I bet he will be successful at something else.  In his case, I still see baseball in his future after his playing days are over.

The odds change in large part due to self-selection.  Baseball has psychological (and physical) breaking points:

 

*Little league to travel baseball

*Travel baseball to high school baseball

*High school baseball to college baseball

*College baseball to professional baseball

*Professional baseball to the majors

 

Each player (and by extension the parents) are making mental decisions along the way (self-selecting) as to the odds little Johnny will make it to the next level.

 

From youth to travel baseball failure is the main culprit of the gleaning process.  There are early maturers who dominate the game and reserve outfielders (like Bum, Jr.) who had little success but through sheer determination pressed on.  Most quit because of the hopelessness they feel from failure.  Their odds are 0% from the beginning because of the lack of mental fortitude.

 

From travel to h.s. baseball there are those that find other interests, find girls, don't put in the hard work necessary, etc.  Their odds are likewise 0%.

 

From h.s. baseball to college there are even more reasons to quit the game.  Poor grades.  The prospect of going to a J.C. to develop more.  Money issues.  I'm pretty sure the odds are closer to 90% for a kid who has worked his tail off, learned to deal with failure, and wants it bad enough. 

 

From college to pro the physical side is the determining factor.  But even at that level, guys quit because they're lonely for their girlfriend, feel hopeless due to lack of playing time, or don't work at their craft hard enough.  Their odds are likewise 0%.

 

There was one kid who played with Bum, Jr. was had a very good college career.  Way better than Bum, Jr.  He got rocked in Rookie ball and quit.  His odds are 0% and were from the beginning.  He finally faced failure and couldn't handle it.  Meanwhile, son just kept plugging along. 

 

What are Bum, Jr.'s odds now? There is somewhere between a 0% and 99% odds that he'll be called into the office someday and told to go packing.  But I guarantee you right now there is a flat-out 0% chance it will be Bum, Jr. who quits on his own.  He is just wired that way.  This year was tough because he tore his ACL.  But he has rehabbed in record time and is raring to go next year.  His mental toughness developed through years of failure (and mental resiliance developed from years of success he has had, too, to carry him through the hard times) means his odds, if it were up to him, are 100%.

 

I am 100% confident that Bum, Jr. can compete at any level, AA, AAA or MLB, if ever given that chance.  He's a brilliant kid who learns from each experience and adapts.  Are his overall odds 100%, heck no, but better than the 0% chance if he were to self-select and quit.

Last edited by Bum

Right on, right on, PGStaff.

 

Aside from how flat-out wrong the numbers are, data on the odds of playing Major League Baseball too often cause uninformed people to push young high-prospect ball players away from pursuing their dream.

 

How many sincere extended family members ... close friends ... or teachers ... have used this flawed data to tell young men they can't -- or at the very least, shouldn't?

 

Not only do many of these young men have to overcome the odds ... they have to do it without the full support of people they often respect. That stinks.

 

On the upside, though, it teaches them something:

 

 Quote

 

PG this is a great post and there have been a lot of great posts.  I think one thing that reduces the number is player willing to travel out of state.  I have had multiple player go site unseen to mid west colleges simply because they are from Southern California and play for a reputable program.  There are some players that do not want to leave So Cal or California. 

 

Another example of getting players out is the SGV Arsenal Program.  Go and look at there website and see how many guys are leaving to go to college.  Mike does a heck of a job getting players out and they really stress grades.  I think if a player is willing to explore the nation and all levels of 4 yr. college baseball they will find a place to land.  To often players and especially parents do not understand what level their player is at and have to lofty expectations of them and that holds a player back.

Reading this great gymnastics-free thread as the father of a 2017 grad, I wish the world would slow down a bit.  Yes, my 2017  and I have discussed whether he’d like to play college ball, and yes, a couple of baseball people along the way have told him that if he works hard he may have the talent to play at the next level.   But he’s only  been in HS a couple months!  He’s yet to show he can balance his responsibilities and  pull the grades he needs to pull in HS, and he’s yet to play in an official HS game.  Until he walked onto campus in August, his stated goals as a baseball player were simple:  be an impact player, probably on JV as a frosh, definitely on Varsity as a soph.   But he made the fall “varsity” team and one of his teammates was a 2016 who made a verbal to a DI, and a couple more kids he knows from travel either have verbals or are rumored to be close, so I know he’s starting to think a little further ahead.  Or at least he would be if he was healthy.  Unfortunately he has a shoulder injury that is keeping him out of basketball right now, and could  threaten  his spring season.  That’s another thread, but it adds to my feeling that there’s no rush to worry about college.  It'll still be there in 4 years.  I just want the  kid to be able to enjoy playing ball in HS.

Originally Posted by JCG:
Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Another %... 6% of high school seniors will go on to play college baseball.   Here is a question... What would the % of those seniors that have the desire and talent to play college baseball that do play college baseball.  Obviously that would be much higher than 6%.

 

I would guess that more than half of all HS senior baseball players have no intention of playing in college.  So why would they be part of the odds?  Then there is the other seniors who simply don't have the talent to play college baseball.  Subtract them from the odds. So the true odds would be... The number of high school seniors that have the talent and desire to play college baseball, that actually get the opportunity to play college baseball.  Of course, I have no idea what % that would be, but I'm positive it is much more than 6%. While those who lack talent and/or don't want to play college baseball would be 0%.

You're leaving out one group from your calculations, I believe.  There are some kids who may have the talent and desire to play at the next level but just can't or won't pull the grades required.

There are also the kids with the grades and future ambitions to pursue a school for academic reasons, in spite of the opportunity to play somewhere with a lower academic standard.  Or the ones with the ability and academics to do both, but who aren't willing to make the sacrifices in time to play, or who aren't motivated enough by the athletic competition to want to play.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

As far as having goals, what about those who want to be a MLB GM?  There's only 30 of them.  How about CEO of a fortune 500 company?  How about the odds of becoming a multi-millionaire?  Heck you want great odds?  Look into the fast food industry!  

There's been some good economics research done on the CEO thing, and the disparity between CEO compensation and the VP level that mostly concluded that the difference between them isn't talent as much as it's luck, and the enormous pay disparity exists in part because the VP level guys are irrationally pursuing the next level that few of them will ever reach in much the same way that people irrationally play the actual lottery.  Wish I could remember where I read that, a quick Google turns up unrelated theories.

BUM, your son sounds a lot like I see in my son. Stubbornness was difficult to deal with as a young lad, but it sure is a huge asset now. My son is several years behind your son but I relish every post you write because they are REAL. You don't pull any punches and I appreciate that about you. You really seem like someone I would most enjoy watching a game with. I just hope my son makes the opportunity to take him to the level your son has reached.

I think its good to know the odds, as someone stated, it makes you work harder.

 

You have to understand how very hard  one has to work in this game, to succeed.

 

You have to also understand exactly how this business works, in order to succeed. I don't think that some folks really get that. 

 

Also from what I see, you have to be wired a bit differently than most.  This job isn't for everyone and it has nothing to do with how tall or short you are, whether you bat or throw from the left side or the right. 

 

There is nothing wrong with a player who wakes up one day and says I am ready to move on, that has nothing to do with failure.   No one really can understand that unless they have been in that situation. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Atta boy PG for planting this thread.  This is a necessary conversation for the student athlete.  Maybe not so much the kid that has no desire or aptitude for school.  But I still think the kid that is school bound should be aware because it expands the conversation to risk and best fit.

 

I have a 2016 MIF/OF. Discussions on this topic have helped him understand the broader considerations about a school choice.  Most obvious is cost, Will the values/beliefs of the school affirm or conflict those at home, Academic offerings that align with student's interests, and my favorite (and mostly never mentioned anywhere) can your student be comfortable on and around the campus.

 

Ultimately, I think keeping the eye on the ball for us means we are helping our son pursue his dreams wherever that may lead. Shoot for the moon but pack your parachute.  We also want to provide information and guidance to advance his chance for success.  We are especially blessed to be with an outstanding showcase org in Carolina that is well connected with area schools. 

 

We really appreciate the message our son has been receiving from college and showcase sources to make college ball a reality. 

 

1. Character  2. Work ethic  3. Talent.  Yes, in that order. 

Yes many would say they put character, work ethic and talent in that order.

 

Please don't believe that!  I think they mean they want all three ingredients. 

 

If the talent is lacking, at least at the higher levels, you could have the best character and work ethic in the world... They might respect you, but they won't be recruiting you.

 

In fact, if the talent is missing, they won't spend any time trying to find out what your character or work ethic is like. 

 

However, if you have the talent they are looking for, the other things do become the most important. If that makes any sense!

I think everyone needs a plan B unless you are living at home or have a wife that is working. 
 
Hopefully your son has a degree that is marketable that he can use to support himself should his dream of playing baseball end. 
 
My sons know that they should approach life as if they are one check away from being homeless. 
 
 
Originally Posted by floridafan:
 
It never mattered what level of ball he was playing, he knew he could compete at each level and knew that he would make it to the next level. It was never a question. There has never been a plan B. He was always all in 100%, sort of like the invading army burning their ships, no way but forward.
 
 
There really is no plan B. One day he may need a new plan, but it will not be a plan B, it will be his plan. Achieving greatness, and anyone past college has achieved something very special, can not be accomplished with a divided mind, unless you have truly superior gifts.
 
 
Originally Posted by baseballmania:
 
 
My sons know that they should approach life as if they are one check away from being homeless. 
 
 
 

I certainly would never want my kids to approach their future with that type of attitude.

 

What is meant by a marketable degree?  

 

The daily grind experienced by most professional players is unlike anything else anyone will ever know,  so does trying to live on meager pay.  I guess that is why so many are successful. 

 

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Yes many would say they put character, work ethic and talent in that order.

 

Please don't believe that!  I think they mean they want all three ingredients. 

 

If the talent is lacking, at least at the higher levels, you could have the best character and work ethic in the world... They might respect you, but they won't be recruiting you.

 

In fact, if the talent is missing, they won't spend any time trying to find out what your character or work ethic is like. 

 

However, if you have the talent they are looking for, the other things do become the most important. If that makes any sense!

+1

This thread is awesome.

 

If your son wanted to be an actor, would you just tell him to hang it up if he came to realize he was never going to be the next George Clooney or Tom Cruise? or...might you encourage him to branch out onto the stage or theater so that he might broaden his horizons that way.  Perhaps he could become a director, agent, producer, writer, character actor, etc. etc, etc, while still pursuing his love of acting.

 

Baseball is like that as well.  While everyone would like to be a big star in the big leagues, sometimes that is not always possible.  However, some love the game so much that they will find a way to make a living at baseball.  There are hundreds of possibilities. 

 

 

 

CD is right on, playing the game can open lots of future possibilities. For son, he will have to return eventually to finish his degree (2 semesters), but regardless he will be "marketable" because of baseball.

I think that most players do have a plan B, that's why most attend college first. My son had a teammate that is a graphic artist, his work is amazing.

I think it's good to think about the future after baseball. 

Last edited by TPM

Well. I'm conflicted.

 

Loved the quote about shooting for the moon but packing a parachute so much that I shared it with my daughter just now.

 

Then I read the view that fully committed means leaving the parachute at home:

 

"Sort of like the invading army burning their ships, no way but forward."

 

That makes sense, too.

 

So I asked JP. He's completely of the second view.

 

I remain conflicted.

 

 

 

 

 

I think it is instructive to look at real life work world and see how it is currently manifested in baseball. 

 

Look at the Human Resources Dept (fka Personnel). Often, these folks don't waste time in the initial screening process.  They rely on external agencies, headhunters, etc... The fact that a potential  employee is being recommended by an agency means the prospect has passed the initial screening and should be considered a qualified candidate.  The travel/showcase teams today are the external agencies.  The best run organizations have built relationships with college coaches.  That's why the character/work ethic/talent is not the message for all but for those at a respected organization with solid integrity. 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by jp24:

Well. I'm conflicted.

 

Loved the quote about shooting for the moon but packing a parachute so much that I shared it with my daughter just now.

 

Then I read the view that fully committed means leaving the parachute at home:

 

"Sort of like the invading army burning their ships, no way but forward."

 

That makes sense, too.

 

So I asked JP. He's completely of the second view.

 

I remain conflicted.

 

 

 

 

No right or wrong here I guess. One way to look at it would be:

 

If you expect your kid's coaches down the line to burn their ships for your kid, then you can burn yours too. If you expect your kid's coaches down the line will have a Plan B for your kid, then maybe you should too.

The son of a friend had his affiliated minor league career end last year. He played Indy ball this year. Fortunately for him he had one big pay check playing Japanese majors. He said he'll be done playing when they tear the uniform off him. Then he hopes to put on a coaches uniform (college or minors). The guy isn't money driven. He's baseball driven. And he has a very patient wife.

 

Then I read the view that fully committed means leaving the parachute at home:

 

"Sort of like the invading army burning their ships, no way but forward."

You have to have no fear. Living with a parachute only gives one an excuse to fail.
Example:

Would you have pushed harder if you had no other option, if you're only option was to make it?

 

Odds and statistics define many people, however they don't affect those who live with no fear of them. A number can only limit a person if he or she lets it.

 

Chase your dreams and fear nothing.

I don't think this is good advice.  This isn't a situation in which effort and commitment alone can determine success.  Talent is relative, injuries occur, stuff happens.
 
Originally Posted by Throwingas96:
 

Then I read the view that fully committed means leaving the parachute at home:

 

"Sort of like the invading army burning their ships, no way but forward."

You have to have no fear. Living with a parachute only gives one an excuse to fail.
Example:

Would you have pushed harder if you had no other option, if you're only option was to make it?

 

Odds and statistics define many people, however they don't affect those who live with no fear of them. A number can only limit a person if he or she lets it.

 

Chase your dreams and fear nothing.

 

 

In the modern world, corporations and teams are doing contingency planning continuously.  There is no fear built in.  Its actually planning for success while recognizing uncertainty. 

 

A corporation wants to serve their customers even if their headquarters is hit by an ice storm.  The team wants to win the game/series even if the #1 starting pitcher can't get thru the 2nd inning of game 1 due to illness/injury.

 

We learned as scouts at an early age...be prepared.

 

If the odds or statistics are enough for a kid to quit then he never had the passion required to excel. 

 

I highly recommend the story of Daniel Nava/Boston Red Sox.  His perseverance is beyond human.  Inspirational !!!

 

 

Originally Posted by jp24:

Well. I'm conflicted.

 

Loved the quote about shooting for the moon but packing a parachute so much that I shared it with my daughter just now.

 

Then I read the view that fully committed means leaving the parachute at home:

 

"Sort of like the invading army burning their ships, no way but forward."

 

That makes sense, too.

 

So I asked JP. He's completely of the second view.

 

I remain conflicted.

 

 

 

 

It's really not that difficult.

 

If you instill in your son a love and appreciation for the game, and the importance of good grades and work habits in school and on the field at the same time, you more or less will cover the bases.

 

He will begin to understand the odds himself as he matures, especially when the talent pool begins to thin out if he attends college.  He should have other interests as well, it shouldn't be all about baseball.

 

If your son is talented, has good grades, he will have many choices.  When the time comes you can sit down and have a discussion as to his possible future regarding the game, until then, try to enjoy his HS years, it goes by very quickly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting thread.  It is pretty cut and dried from my perspective.  750 players in the entire world will play MLB at any moment in time.  There were around 7.129 Billion people in the world in 2013.  So, to answer PGStaff's thread question I look at it the odds as not particulary good.  Yes the same can be said for other professions. But other professions don't have a limited shelf life or timetable that a professional athlete faces.  Very few have the freakish skill set, discipline, will, and unbelievable luck that it takes to be a professional baseball player.

 

With that said, I think there comes a time where every player has to ask themselves if baseball is giving or taking away from their lives and goals.  When it is giving back such as a baseball scholarship or an opportunity to attend a university that a student wouldn't usually have access to....that is a positive.  When it is taking away from something else the person could be doing for himself or family then it is time to be doing something else. 

 

Over the years, my personal observation is that many players overestimate their talent and underestimate the rest of the (world) field.  I've seen it in high school and college baseball.  In 1984 I tried my hand (very briefly) at professional tennis.  Let's just say it was an eye opening experience for a young man who learned quickly how many unbelievable tennis players there are in the world.   I'll assume it happens at the MiLB professional level too, because the feedback I've gotten from some MiLB players is people still try to get by on talent alone. In baseball, you have to have the talent & desire but you also have to have any unbelievable amount of luck.  Do you want to bet your career on luck?  Some do and some don't.  At least 750 decided the risk was worth the reward.

Last edited by fenwaysouth

Fenway, with all due respect...

 

7.129 Billion people, those are the type of numbers (odds) that I'm talking about.

 

Lets start cutting into those odds.

 

Of the 7.129 billion people.

 

How many are males?

How many play baseball?

How many live where baseball is not played?

How many are either too young or too old to count?

How many desire to make baseball their career?

 

Sorry I just don't see the insurmountable odds. First of all we can't use 750 as a number.  That is the number at any given time, but the number in any given season, or the overall number is much higher than 750.

 

Then there is the fact that others actually make the decision for you.  You start when young, you play for enjoyment.  Later comes high school, if you don't stand out there, Plan "A" probably should be something other than being a ML player.  If you are still in the running, college baseball or the draft is the next step.  If drafted in a good round out of HS, you have a good chance of making it.  If you go to college the process continues. You need to standout enough to create scouting interest.  Then you either get drafted or attempt to catch on as a free agent.  Your odds will depend on what round.  If you're a 1st rounder your odds are great! If you are selected in the 30th round your odds are not so great. Now if you have made it to professional baseball you are in the true number that dictate the odds of playing MLB. This is where the 4 ingredients to winning (success) take place.  (Talent - Effort - Intelligence - Luck)

 

Yes, luck, both good or bad, can determine success.  Effort covers things like desire, work ethic and persistence.  Intelligence covers everything from behavior to decision making. And Talent will always be #1, but sometimes it isn't enough without the other three ingredients. These four things will determine "your" odds.

 

Anyway, I understand the numbers (odds).  I also understand that odds are determined by whatever numbers someone wants to use.  To me, the only numbers that count are the number of players in professional baseball.  I just don't think young people that love the game are ever going to quit playing in high school or college.  Beyond that, most players would continue on to pro ball if they get the chance, but that is no longer up to them.  If no one signs them, their odds are ZERO.  Only those in the pool of professional players are involved in the real odds. Everyone else has hopefully gained a lot from playing a game they love.

 

Now comes the time to look at risk and reward.  Let's say you're not an early round draft pick.  Lets say you fit into the 5% or lower range of making it to the Big Leagues.  Once you make it the odds don't matter, you're chances of sticking around for awhile will depend on you.  Everyone would like those odds!  But back to the 5%... The RISK is you don't make it, you didn't get a good signing bonus and you have spent time doing something you love rather than what you will end up doing. (Notice I said spent time rather than waste time). The big REWARD is you will become a multi millionaire doing something you love for a living.  You will retire as a wealthy man at a young age.  Of course, there is everything else between the biggest risk and biggest reward.  I look at it as a small risk with potential of large reward.  In fact, I actually see the risk as somewhat of a reward.

 

How many occupations are there out there with that type of reward?  That little of risk?  That good of odds?

 

So obviously the odds are horrible if we use numbers that include every man, woman and child on Earth.  Odds are not good even if we just use those that play baseball.  However, this is not like the lottery where every set of numbers has the same chance. That would be true odds!  When we see a young Bryce Harper, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, etc., we know their odds are very good.  Others maybe not that good, some maybe one in a million.  All I know is that in any given time there will always be 750 people in the Major Leagues. And from one day to the next it is not the same 750 people.

 

Bottom line... I'm not sure baseball should be considered a "plan" A or B.  There really isn't any planning involved that I can see.  You can plan and accomplish some things like being an accountant or being in business, but it doesn't work that way in baseball.

 

To me kids should have one plan... Be the best you can be at whatever you decide to do.  Sometimes I think it's the parents that most think about a plan. In my experience young people change their plans a lot.

 

What is Plan B? Hey, the kid went to college a semester shy of a degree. What's Plan B? He is 3 years removed from any degree of academic skill sets acquired through college. He was not an engineering major, nor did he ace his math, accounting or economics classes.

 

His plan is to play ball. His plan has been to play ball since he was 10. He does not have nor need a Plan B.

 

As everyone knows at some point he will no longer be a player. At that point he will evaluate his options and come up with a plan. I understand that that is an anathema to some and fool hardy to others.

 

The guy does not live in isolation. He has friends, contacts and family. Who knows what tomorrow brings. How many Plan B's work precisely as planned? How may people out there with College Degrees right now have found that their Plan A, Plan B and Plan C have failed to materialize?

 

Call me a fool, or foolish if you like, I guess you can call my son a fool as well, its just a message board here... Right now my son is focused on one objective and one objective only. He is not divided.

 

Again, when the day comes to hang up the cleats, he will approach that day and that goal with the same intensity.

Last edited by floridafan

floridafan,

 

We always tend to do comparisons when evaluating talented young players.  I could compare your son to someone like Allen Craig (Cardinals) for example.  People that have seen both might see the similarities.

 

However in another way, I could comp your son to the Head Coach at Dallas Baptist.  When Dan Heefner played in our events and hung around our building while he was in high school, it was easy to predict he was going to make a career out of baseball. I'm sure his plan wasn't to be one of the youngest DI baseball coaches ever. But that is what happened!

Florida Fan, no offense--I would never call you or anyone a fool as I was speaking rhetorically.  (I didn't even read your earlier post about no plan B. I was just saying in reality we all do, if only in the back of our mind.  At least we should.) 

 

Bum, Jr. says he would go to law school and has expressed an interest in politics.  I hope so.  He'd be one of the good guys.

 

No offense sir.. Merry Christmas.

Originally Posted by Bum:

Florida Fan, no offense--I would never call you or anyone a fool as I was speaking rhetorically.  (I didn't even read your earlier post about no plan B. I was just saying in reality we all do, if only in the back of our mind.  At least we should.) 

 

Bum, Jr. says he would go to law school and has expressed an interest in politics.  I hope so.  He'd be one of the good guys.

 

No offense sir.. Merry Christmas.

Now I'm really rooting for him to make it in baseball.  The last thing the world needs is more lawyers or politicians.  :-)

 “He who knows others is wise; he who knows himself is enlightened.”
― Lao Tzu

 

Knowing the chances is knowing others. Knowing oneself allows a person to use that information to the best personal advantage.

 

Can't understand why this is an either/or discussion. I would advise youngsters to get all the objective information they can about any prospective professional endeavor, and using self-awareness, apply it to their personal situation.

 

I suppose there can be such a thing as too much information. But I would hesitate to advise a youngster to ignore data...unless I thought he was incapable of understanding it.......or had very little self-awareness.

 

Edit: in which case he would be neither wise nor enlightened

Last edited by Green Light

I am a big believer in chasing your dreams and giving it everything you have, but I know the value of being prepared. Through my travels as a professional ball player, I can't tell you how many times players say "well now what am I going to do" once their careers are over. I mentor many student athletes and we talk constantly about a college education. Even in pro ball (this was my 7th season), you can tell the difference between a guy who came out of high school and a guy who went to college quite easily. College allows for kids to grow up and learn to be adults, which is going to be very helpful if one is blessed with the grind of the minor leagues and poor pay checks.

 

I was went to Oregon State, played very well, won two national titles, and was a high draft pick, but because I got my degree in business I was able to start my own. Now I am still playing baseball but also started a sports education website that helps student athletes in 4 different countries. My company BASE By Pros gives kids connection to pro athletes for advice, helps kids get recruited (because college is so important), and we put on events that connect college coaches with students and parents to explain what college is like and how to prepare to move to the next level.

 

Really… the odds are against most, but it is even more against those who do not give their heart and passion into the game. This being said, the odds are against those who do not understand what a business is and how to be an adult. Baseball is a business and what the boss says goes. Even if you feel you are the better candidate for a position.. your opinion doesn't really matter when the line up card is built. You can control your work ethic and how you present yourself on and off the field, but the rest isn't up to you. This is why having a college education is super important. Not many guys find it easy to go back to school when they are older, have a family, and working off little finances. Get it done!

Attending college for 3,4,5 years working towards a degree before one is drafted (or in the game), IS having plan B.

 

I think that most people that come out of the game (over 24-25 let's say) are mature enough to understand that they need to think about life after baseball at some point. These discussions are more important for the young player in HS who actually has no clue what milb life is all about and the hard work it takes to get past A ball let alone to MLB.

I happen to agree with PG's post, he always seems to add reality to these types of discussions.

BTW, luck has a LOT to do with the ODDS. Like any job, it can be about being in the right place at the right time, the right team, etc.

 

Having said, that mine is 28 and still playing, not ready to stop until someone says he can't anymore, his odds are becoming less and less due to his age and he knows that. I am sure that with that in mind he has thought about life after playing the game.

 

It's not what you see on TV.

 

Here is a good example of why prior discussion can be beneficial. I remember son telling me about a player he roomed with (son was sent back to Jupiter to end his rookie short season due to sore arm) who was a late sign for 10,000 (before taxes). At the end of the GCL short season, he told son that his experience was nothing like he expected pro ball to be. Appears that he was very unhappy he had not gone to college. Obviously no one informed the 17,18 year old about what it can be like your first season coming out of HS. Signing for lots of money usually helps ease those feelings.  The odds IMO were not that high for him as a late sign out of HS, and someone should have told him what options may have been better for him, or if they did he wasn't listening.

 

 

Originally Posted by Bum:
Originally Posted by jacjacatk:

Now I'm really rooting for him to make it in baseball.  The last thing the world needs is more lawyers or politicians.  :-)

I hear you.  But if you knew Bum, Jr. you would know he's incorruptible.

No worries, then, he'll never have a career in politics and his future as a lawyer is probably limited, too.

Just read through this post yesterday and finished up today. Trying to get the holidays together

 

Lots of excellent points being made. And also welcome Mitch its nice to have a players perspective.

 

I think everyone is different. What works for one player may not work for the other.

 

I see FF point about being 100% committed.  also agree with TPM that unless your in the game, nobody can judge ones decision.

 

For me as I have seen the game unfold, I respect the players that stay, and I respect the players that decide to move on and start a different chapter in their lives. No shame in that.

 

As TPM said and its true its hard, and many glamorize it but its hard work. I don't think players that leave love it less, Maybe they just want to make money, buy a house try life in a different aspect.

 

I have learned that there is not one right way.

I look back on my sons journey as I am sure many of you have, and I would of never

guessed it went the way it did.

 

For our family, my son has a degree from an excellent school that he would never of been to without baseball. His friendships and connections are awesome and he loves being an alumni. He also has made friends with some outstanding young men in pro ball.On his teams he played on last year, there were three Cal players, Two USC, a Notre dame(he left baseball for a very good job)Stanford, Duke. Very smart and hardworking men. Had the pleasure of meeting many of them.99.999999 of them, many drafted in top rounds wont make it.

 

I think as we start this journey and I see it with the new young parents, we try to control and predict how it will end. Nothing could of been more perfect then the plan that has evolved, because God was in that plan from thee moment  he created our sons with his own hands.

 

I know baseball or no baseball,my son and your sons are precious to us,and whatever they do,how far they go, I don't think its going to matter 20 years from now(I mean unless they make millions)) I think what matters is they conduct themselves as they have so far, hard working men, good work ethics, good families.

 

The rest they have no control of.

 

On a side note, a player my son played with at USC drafted in late rounds, like 37th?,on the small side, LF with out much pop,kind of a fringy player as seen by most,I always liked him, he has that unknown tool, anyway he made the 40 man roster for the Cardinals for 2014. He has hit .300 and above at every level, doesn't strike  out really good OBP, if he wasn't a lefty and played MI he probably would make the 25 man.) Anyway it can happen to those players, but others may tire of the grind.

 

I respect all of them for their hard work and tenacity. many of our boys were told they never would play college let alone Pro ball. They are all success stories to me.

 

Hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas season, enjoy your families.

 

baseball is right around the corner or maybe a new path?

 

 

 

Originally Posted by Bum:

You're an idiot jac.

Not that I'd immediately deny that, but I thought the sarcasm about incorruptible politicians was pretty obvious, and standard.  There was no intention to offend, and even if I thought being a lawyer or a politician was a completely noble profession, I'd still be rooting for Bum Jr to make it in baseball.

This thread just keeps getting better. As the dad of a HS player (and a dad who earlier in this thread admitted to being conflicted) I'm concluding there are three types of HS boys who aspire to, and at this age -- compared with their peers nationally -- have a legitimate shot at playing in the ML:

 

Type 1: All eggs in the ML basket, grades and other interests be damned. No real ability to assess their own skills and value versus their peers. It's all or nothing.

 

Type 2: All eggs in ML basket, but get good grades and even if no expressed interest, are in fact positioning themselves for success later. Have the maturity to continually assess their skills versus the competition. Believe they have what it takes, and go for it ... but take care of business while pursuing their dreams. They get the odds.

 

Type 3: Hedge their bets by getting good grades, and developing specific plans for the day they're forced out of baseball. They also get the odds.

 

I like Type 2.

 

(And I also like Green Light's always unique perspective.)

My problem is the accuracy of the odds.  I see nothing wrong with actually knowing the odds, but really, what are the "real" odds? Certainly no one believes the odds are the same for every individual.  This is not like the odds of winning the lottery. For one individual the odds might be 1 in a billion. For another they might be 50-50, for some even better than 50-50.  The odds are different for the player they have invested a large sum of money in than the player they signed for $1,000.

 

So the odds are different from one individual to the next.  And those odds change (better or worse) based on performance, health, and other things.

 

One more thing to consider while discussing the percentages and odds.  I have no way of really knowing this but I would guess well over 90% of amateur players would love a chance to get those small minor league checks. It has to be one of the most sought after  under paid jobs there is, though one with a much higher potential than others.

 

College is a plan B, even if there is no actual plan B. For many plan B still involves baseball.  After all, they have a baseball education. Baseball employs a lot of people.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

My problem is the accuracy of the odds.

You are uniquely positioned to help us with this. You have the data.

 

How many RHPs who you have clocked at 85 mph or under have made it to the pros compared to all the RHPs you have clocked?

 

Other posters may have similar questions. PG can be part of the solution to your own "problem"!

Last edited by Green Light
Originally Posted by PGStaff:

My problem is the accuracy of the odds.  I see nothing wrong with actually knowing the odds, but really, what are the "real" odds? Certainly no one believes the odds are the same for every individual.  This is not like the odds of winning the lottery. For one individual the odds might be 1 in a billion. For another they might be 50-50, for some even better than 50-50.  The odds are different for the player they have invested a large sum of money in than the player they signed for $1,000.

 

So the odds are different from one individual to the next.  And those odds change (better or worse) based on performance, health, and other things.

 

That is an interesting way of looking at it. It's not quite scientific, but maybe instructive to take local pools of players and see how they have done statistically. For example, our local HS league, which is solid, though not outstanding, consists of 8 schools.  Average enrollment is 1600 or so.  So roughly 160 kids are playing at any one time.  You could  assume that 100 of them get significant innings.  How will they do?  How have the players who came behind them done?  Better yet, of those in the group who have gone on to play some kind of college ball, how many have collected paychecks for playing ball?  

 

For kids currently playing HS baseball, looking at those numbers in their local  area would probably give them a better sense of their odds of success in baseball than numbers that include the entire population of the world.

 

 

Those are interesting thoughts JCG...

 

Under the articles page of the hsbbweb, the founder of the site posted some interesting numbers that are fairly accurate in terms of numbers...  He concluded that about 1 in 10 of about 1/2 million high school players go on to play in college at some level from juco to D1.  Of about 140,000 draft-eligible college players each year, about 1 in 100 of those are lucky enough to get drafted.  Those numbers have changed for the worse as there are now only 40 rounds in the mlb draft instead of 50.  From what I know, about 1/2 of the mlb draft comes from D1 colleges.  Most of the other half comes from high school eligible players.  For instance, only about 20 to 25 players from the D3 level get drafted each year and I am guessing about 50-70 at the D2 level get drafted.  Thus, the odds of even getting a chance to see if the odds apply to you are fairly low.  fenwaysouth mentioned luck as a factor and I agree with him.  It is a very important part of the equation.  Sometimes you have to outlast things until the luck breaks your way all the while being a top producer at whatever level you may be competing at so that you can continue waiting for the break that might not come your way.  You have to really like baseball sometimes for that to happen.  One thing for people to realize for minor league pay is that if you can somehow mange to get "some" big league service time, you can start to earn a very decent living at the minor league level - assuming your services are still desired.  For instance, many AAA players earn 20,000 a month (about 120k per year) during the season and many of them have been earning that for years.  You probably have never heard of them but there is a reason guys stay in baseball for their entire careers even if they hardly ever play in the big leagues.    

 

INSIDE THE NUMBERS


by: Bob Howdeshell High School Baseball Web

Total number of participating teams and players in high school  and college baseball programs -- as reported by the various  institutions
***
National Federation of High Schools
***
Teams
 
Participants
14,988 455,414 (1,622 girls)
NCAA
National Collegiate Athletic Association
NCAA
Division I
Division II
Division III
274224319
ParticipantsParticipantsParticipants
8,4396,8999,825
***
National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics
***
Teams
 
Participants
320 9,600
NJCAA
National Junior College Athletic Association
NJCAA
Division I
Division II
Division III
18511485
ParticipantsParticipantsParticipants
5,5503,4202,550
COA
California Junior College Association
COA
Teams
 
Participants
87 2,175
***
Totals For 2 & 4 Year Colleges / Universities
***
Teams
 
Participants
1,608 48,408

Now we'll take a look "Inside the Numbers"

The following is a compilation of the odds for a high school player  to either get drafted by a professional team or play college baseball.

Making the Pros

We will make some assumptions on the total numbers of players  eligible each draft year.

High School Players @ 114,159 seniors NCAA (4 year schools) @ 12,581 juniors & seniors NJCAA (2 year schools) @ 11,520 COA (@ year schools) @ 2,175 That gives us 140,435 "draft eligible" players. 140,129/1,500 = 94

1 player in 94 will be selected in the Major League Baseball Draft

Playing in College

High School seniors = 114,159 College "seniors" (or sophomores when related to juco's) = 13,137 That means their are 114,159 graduating high seniors versus 13,137  slots open

Honestly, though, if you choose that path (pro baseball) you likely know where you stand by the time you're in your early 20's. And how many of us truly knew where we'd end up and had a plan by then, anyway. It's no different than the kid who goes to college and gets buried under student loans with a useless degree in a field that doesn't have jobs or doesn't pay well. I wonder how many guys who tried pro ball and failed would have chosen not to pursue the dream if given a second chance? Not many, I would venture to guess.

Once again... I believe the only odds that matter regarding making money playing baseball are when and if you get signed to a professional contract. In other words, this year there were 1216 players drafted.  Seeing that I don't know the actual number, lets assume about 1/3 of those players sign a contract. Using the number 400, how many of those players will make a living in professional baseball. Let's guess that 40 or 10% will make it and 20 or 5% make it and stay for awhile.  I like those odds (1 out of 20) chance of making millions playing baseball. And my odds increase based on how well I perform. Of course if I happen to get selected in the first couple rounds my odds are much better than 10%.

 

To me those are the only odds that count regarding a career in baseball.

 

The other odds that do count is the number that go from high school to play in college.  To me it doesn't really matter that much unless someone is entertaining the idea to quit playing and concentrate on something else while still in high school.

 

The odds of going pro out of college really doesn't matter unless it would cause you to quit baseball and concentrate on something else.

 

Most players, love the game or maybe baseball is helping them pay for college.  They might dream of playing in the Big Leagues, but they are young and the odds of them making it isn't going to change their life one bit.  If they become one of the many that don't get signed to a pro contract, life goes on, nothing stopping them from starting a prosperous life.  Some that truly desire it the most will keep trying through independent baseball or other channels, they keep chasing the dream despite the long odds. I just can't possibly call these young people foolish for chasing their dream. And their education in life continues. These type people have a special quality that might just lead to big success in something down the road.

 

So no matter how the odds stack up, it doesn't even matter until you are actually in professional baseball.  The many that don't ever see a professional pay check continue on in life.  Most will have gained a lot from their involvement playing the game whether it ends in high school, college or pros. Each young new professional has his own odds of success. Some will succeed, many won't. Those young people that are not in professional baseball also have their own odds for success. It's just they are not part of the baseball odds.

 

So here is how I look at it. What are the odds of baseball having a positive impact on a players life. Again, just guessing, but I would say well over 90% will be very glad they played the game. 

 

It just seems ridiculous to me that we have numbers of participants and odds of those participants making it to the very top level.  When in fact, those odds will never pertain to a very large % of the number of participants. And they are never the same odds from one individual to the next.

 

Now if you have a new born baby boy and think he is going to become a MLB player, you might want to consider the odds before you become "one of those parents". Even then the odds can be better for some due to genetics.

 

Bottom line... you can use any number you want. Number of youth players, high school players, college players or the population, every man, woman, child, in the entire world.  And those odds mean absolutely nothing to over 90% of those people. In fact, they really don't mean anything to the other 10% either.

 

 

I'm so completely tracking with PGStaff on this. COMPLETELY.

 

And since I love this thread, I'll throw something else controversial into the mix:

 

I submit that as young as HS, there are a lot of young men out there who everyone, including parents, know that -- barring serious injury -- have overwhelmingly good odds of playing pro baseball.

 

They conclude that for all the right reasons -- the ones we talk about here constantly.

 

Young men like that would be foolish not to go hard after their dream -- because the odds are actually very good.

 

Editing this to try to be clearer: I submit that parents like Bum,TPM and others here KNEW their sons had very good odds early on.

 

OK, ''splain to me how I'm wrong

 

Last edited by jp24

Being a parent of one of those CD referenced from the D3 level, I wonder if any parent
"understands" or "appreciates" the odds, as our sons pursue their goals. More to the point, I wonder how many players are able to pay  attention to the  the odds, or even care that there are "odds."

To put this is a reverse image, once a player is drafted and playing in Milb, the "odds" can change for them every year during the off-season, during Spring Training, and again between June 1 and June 20, as well as from day to day, depending on who is released, who is on the DL, who is acquired and who chooses to retire.  One important  reason is the signings and releases by the organization during each time frame. For instance, around the timing of the draft, the organization might have 8-10 players at a position on June 1.   Then comes the draft, releases and other items and the odds might be down to 6-8 players at one position or up to 12-14 players at that position. This might not even include those in extended Spring Training or who might be on the DL or coming in through the Latin Countries. On the other hand, if a player is in extended, the draft is huge for their "odds."

The words which reverberated for our son are similar to those of Mitch Canham and I am sure what PG is saying. In Milb, focus only on what a player can control: his training habits, his diet, his preparation, his being ready to play and compete every inning of every game and then starting all over again tomorrow.  By 6am, all your stats from game day are downloaded, evaluated and analyzed within the teams overall goals at a location distant from any game played. Line ups are often made from a distance, not those who manage and coach from day to day/game to game. If you are a 25th round pick and hit around .300 for a Milb season, expect to show up for ST battling for a spot on a roster at the next level and don't expect you earned very much. If you are a 5th round pick, show up for ST and you likely will be higher in the order, certain to be in the line up and probably at the next level, even if you scuffled much of the previous season. Those are decisions made from a distance and no parent or player is positioned to know or even guess at  what factors or what options exist to increase or decrease the "odds." In fact, my guess is those factors and options vary depending on the organization and necessarily the "odds" also vary by organizational management, structure and expectations.

In terms of the odds, we have experience from a broad environment. Being close to Stanford, we have listened to Coach Marquess from Stanford.  He is a  strong proponent for the education/degree and planning beyond baseball, because so few of players at the talent level of Stanford end up earning a living from baseball. To illustrate, I read a blog today about Jason Castro from the Astros taking his last final...8 years after being drafted and leaving Stanford.

On the other end, we had a very strong minded D3 kid with a college coach who believed in him and created and coached a pathway toward the odds to  MLB  be "damned", which ended up with injury cutting short some wonderful Milb seasons.

The higher a player achieves, the odds change, but they are rarely in control of the player. The odds are rarely  understood by anyone, except those receiving and analyzing stats at 6am and during the off-season.

Talent impacts the "odds." Draft position impacts the "odds." The organization impacts the "odds. Many, many factors impact the "odds" which change from player to player and sometimes from day to day.  For some players, the odds change this week depending on the Rule V draft results.

For those in Milb, MLB is a rugged business. I truly wonder if anyone "makes" it based on the "odds."

Last edited by infielddad

The odds. How do they factor in to what your going to do? Do you never try because the odds seem too stacked against you? Do you use that as an excuse to never try? Do you stare in the mirror years later and wonder "Just what might have been?" I have always thrived in the role as the underdog. It has always motivated me. When the odds seem too great I take it as an opportunity to prove I can do it. My team can do it. We can do it. It can take you to a level you would have never been.

 

I would much rather go against the odds and be all I can be and fail at my ultimate goal, than to have to wonder what if? I know. My goal for my son's was for them to be all they could be no matter what it was. Baseball, football, life. I never wanted to look in the mirror and say "oh what could have been if I had only>>>>>>>>>>>!

 

And who are these people telling me what the odds are for me? They have no idea what I am capable of doing. They have no idea what the odds are for me. The odds are if you shrink from the opportunity at hand because your afraid of failure you will regret that decision for the rest of your life. Our goals for our children in the game can vary. Some just want their son to make the HS team. Some want their kids to play in college. Some want their kids to play in the show. Some want their kids to be a HOFer. Some just want their kids to be the best they can be and to not have to look in that mirror one day and wonder what if.

 

I say to hel with the odds. Go for YOUR dreams. If you fall short you will still be higher than the person that played it safe. The person that failed to live life with the kind of passion and pursuit of greatness that takes you as far as you were capable of going. Yes they will be safe. They will probably never get cut. Never strike out. Never leave the bases loaded. Never be told they just were not quite good enough. What a pitiful boring life.

 

My youngest loves the game as much as anyone I have ever been around. His dream was to play ML baseball. Now he has a new dream. He is attacking it with the same passion and drive that made him the player and team mate he was. He graduates from college this month. Five and half years of school. Countless memories. Heart break. And times of great joy. Its been a full five and half years. No regrets. No looking in the mirror and wondering what if. He knows. So now he is on to his new dream. And I have no doubt he will fight for that dream as much as he fought for his other dream.

 

And you know what? Regardless of the odds. He will fight on. That's living. Real living. Not this idea that we play it safe and think were going to have a full life. The only limitations we have in this life are the limitations we put on ourselves. Odds? I don't give one second of my time too odds. They don't know me.

Coach May, I love to read your posts.

 

I'm thinking tonight.  This planet has been around billions and billions of years.  The universe probably far longer.  What are our odds that we are here tonight, talking on HSBBW, that we are here alive and talking about baseball.

 

Even greater than the odds our sons will make MLB.

 

While we are still on this Earth, make a difference.  Whether baseball or life.  The odds are stacked against us, but so what--we carry on.

 

Originally Posted by Bum:

I'm thinking tonight.  This planet has been around billions and billions of years.  The universe probably far longer.  What are our odds that we are here tonight, talking on HSBBW, that we are here alive and talking about baseball.

 

Technically, 100%, since everything leading up to us doing it has already happened.

Great to have your well thought out perspectives infielddad and Coach May. So wonderful to see you back, and knowing that on some level you are always here checking in day by day.

 

I love reading your posts and feel as though we are old friends!

 

Great to know you are out there too, fanofgame! Here's to a productive new season for our boys!

 

Jon Gruden was talking on ESPN radio this morning and went through a list of guys who had to basically wait their turn before playing.  He mentioned Steve Young and Joe Theisman who did not become starting QB's until their 30's.  Kurt Warner was bagging groceries when he finally got his chance to see if the odds applied to him.  Rich Gannon and now Josh McCown blossomed later in their careers.  As Gruden pointed out, sometimes it isn't all about talent but about having the talent and taking advantage of an opportunity when it finally gets there.

For all the youngsters out there reading the inspirational stories about Joe Theisman and Kurt Warner...which really are inspirational...I wonder if PG or someone else could post up the number of 85 mph and under high school RHPs they have seen go pro, compared to all the RHPs they have seen.

 

And let the kids decide whether they want to ride or buck the odds/trend/history/data.

 

I think information is a great thing. I don't think information should be held back or that people should be told to ignore information. If a person knows himself...has self-awareness...more information can only be used in a positive way, I think.

Green Light,

 

I think that is something our tech guys can put together.  However, what criteria should we use?  We have peak velocity that we have seen on nearly every pitcher we have ever seen.  We also have boxed out velocity, i.e. 84-86 meaning that is closer to an average velocity for that pitcher.

 

Also we need to establish where they were art any given time, freshman, soph, jr, senior in HS.  

 

We have seen some, like Chris Sale, who were mid 80s as a junior in high school end up at mid 90s or better in college.

 

To be honest I can't think of a single pitcher who we saw below 85 mph as a senior in HS that has ever made it to the Big Leagues, but maybe we have.  We have seen a ton of pitchers throw 90 or better that haven't made it either.  However, most of those that throw over 90 end up getting a chance to make it.

 

I will see what we can come up with.  I see where your coming from.  The odds of a pitcher making a living playing baseball if he is throwing no better than 80 mph in HS would be very low.  More interesting would be the odds of all those who threw 90 or better in high school. Obviously the 90 mph pitchers odds would be much better.  Once again proving the odds are not the same for everyone that plays.

 

While that might tell us something, it won't tell us enough.  Why does one mid 90s guy become a MLB All Star and another mid 90s guy never make it to the Big Leagues?  Sure there are the other things beside velocity that separate two pitchers.  But how much does the mind control the outcome?  I doubt the guys that make it consider it that big of a long shot.  Maybe the guys that don't are considering the odds, too much.  I do know that some feel they have accomplished their goals when they are drafted and sign.  They become satisfied with their accomplishments, which that one of the worst things that can happen to a baseball player.  Satisfaction is the enemy!

 

There are several things that can help someone determine odds, but none of them are exact.  TOOLS can help,determine odds.  The guy that grades out the highest has better odds.  Really it is not that difficult to figure out who has the necessary tools.  Someone that is well below average in every category will have almost NO chance of ever playing in the Big Leagues unless he dramatically improves in a few areas.

 

Who has the best odds?

 

Running

6.6-60, 4.2-H1

7.6-60, 4.9-H1

 

Throwing

90+ velocity and accurate

80 velocity and wild

 

Power

Lots of power

No power

 

Fielding

Good feet, good hands, good range, smooth actions

Slow feet, hard hands, no range, stiff actions

 

Hitting

Good bat speed, consistent contact, good balance, nice swing.

Slow bat, swings and misses, bad balance, poor swing.

 

Now who has the better odds of making it?  And why would the bottom guy even be considered part of the odds?

 

obviously this is somewhat of an exaggeration.  Usually it's not this big a difference in lots of players.  But there is always a difference!  Often that difference goes way beyond what the "tools" dictate. But you cannot ignore the tools.  They help determine the "real" odds for any given player.  

 

Now the other odds we keep hearing about...  The 1 in a million type odds!  Maybe they should be looked at like this. What are the odds of any high school player possessing the necessary tools to become a professional baseball player.  That would make more sense. Because in the end, those lacking the tools really don't play a part in the "true" odds of making it.  Their odds are most likely ZERO! So you take away all the millions of ZERO chance guys and the odds look much better for the rest. And even the rest will have their own individual odds of making it. All we know is some people are in fact going to make it.

 

Originally Posted by floridafan:

What is Plan B? Hey, the kid went to college a semester shy of a degree. What's Plan B? He is 3 years removed from any degree of academic skill sets acquired through college. He was not an engineering major, nor did he ace his math, accounting or economics classes.

 

His plan is to play ball. His plan has been to play ball since he was 10. He does not have nor need a Plan B.

 

As everyone knows at some point he will no longer be a player. At that point he will evaluate his options and come up with a plan. I understand that that is an anathema to some and fool hardy to others.

 

The guy does not live in isolation. He has friends, contacts and family. Who knows what tomorrow brings. How many Plan B's work precisely as planned? How may people out there with College Degrees right now have found that their Plan A, Plan B and Plan C have failed to materialize?

 

Call me a fool, or foolish if you like, I guess you can call my son a fool as well, its just a message board here... Right now my son is focused on one objective and one objective only. He is not divided.

 

Again, when the day comes to hang up the cleats, he will approach that day and that goal with the same intensity.

Sounds like Plan B is to move back into your house.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Green Light,

 

I think that is something our tech guys can put together.  However, what criteria should we use?  We have peak velocity that we have seen on nearly every pitcher we have ever seen.  We also have boxed out velocity, i.e. 84-86 meaning that is closer to an average velocity for that pitcher.

 

 

Not intending to give you "an assignment" but if your tech guys could do it, it might be very useful for many readers.

 

You ask what criteria to use. I think if you explain your methodology, whichever you choose to follow, the good readers of HSBBW would be able to understand and appreciate.

 

If it's not too much of a hassle, thanks in advance

Originally Posted by baseballmania:
 

Sounds like Plan B is to move back into your house.

No... That is not his Plan B. He does not live with us in the off season now, I do not ever expect him to move back home. We do enjoy his visits however. He is a hard working capable adult and he will make the proper decisions when that time does come.

I don't think people should be taking shots at floridafan.  Without the attitude he is trying to convey, the odds are indeed zero.

 

What would some of you skeptics in this thread tell Kurt Warner (assuming you didn't already know how his future turned out?)  Rather than the odds of 750 pro positions as in baseball, Warner was competing for that most elusive job that only includes 30 players.  Throw in backups and maybe you are talking about 90 players on the planet.

 

Below is a clip from his bio and it is fascinating to read.  He did not start until he was a senior in college at that well-known college powerhouse Northern Iowa.  Went undrafted and was out of college for four years before he even got a chance as a backup player.  Daniel Nava of the Boston Redsox has a very similar story.  One thing I know from experience is that most people out there will doubt you all along the way.  If you don't have the belief that Warner, Nava, and what floridafan is talking about, the game is already over. 

 

Biography for Kurt Warner from Wikipedia:

High school and college

Born in Burlington, Iowa, Warner played football at Regis High School in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, graduating in 1989 Next, he attended the University of Northern Iowa, graduating in 1993. At UNI, Warner was third on the Panthers' depth chart until his senior year. When Warner was finally given the chance to start, he was named the Gateway Conference's Offensive Player of the Year.

Professional career

Arena Football

Following his college career, Warner went undrafted in the 1994 NFL Draft. He was invited to try out for the Green Bay Packers' training camp in 1994, but was released before the regular season began; Warner was competing for a spot against Brett Favre, Mark Brunell and former Heisman Trophy winner Ty Detmer. While Warner was with the Packers, the head coach was Mike Holmgren; the quarterback coach was Steve Mariucci; and Andy Reid was the offensive assistant. [11] After Warner was released, Mariucci told him that he knew Warner had enormous potential but was not ready to be an NFL quarterback yet.

It was at this time that Warner stocked shelves at a Hy-Vee grocery store in Cedar Falls for $5.50 an hour.[12] Warner often used this as the starting point when telling of his rise to NFL stardom in 1999. He also mentioned his religious conversion that occurred around 1997.[13] Warner also returned to Northern Iowa and worked as a graduate assistant coach with the football team, all the while still hoping to get another tryout with an NFL team.

With no NFL teams willing to give him a chance, Warner turned to the Arena Football League (AFL) in 1995, and signed with the Iowa Barnstormers. Warner was named to the AFL's First-team All-Arena in both 1996 and 1997 after he led the Barnstormers to Arena Bowl appearances in both seasons. Warner's performance was so impressive that he would be named twelfth out of the 20 Best Arena Football Players of all time.[14]

Before the 1997 Arena season, he requested and got a tryout with the Chicago Bears, but an injury to his throwing elbow caused by a spider bite sustained during his honeymoon prevented him from attending.[15]

In 2000, after Warner's breakout NFL season, the Arena Football League used his new notoriety for the name of their first widely available video game, Kurt Warner's Arena Football Unleashed.

On August 12, 2011, Kurt Warner was named as an inductee into the AFL Hall of Fame.

NFL

St. Louis Rams

In 1998, Warner was finally signed by an NFL franchise, the St. Louis Rams, and was allocated to NFL Europe's Amsterdam Admirals, where he would lead the league in touchdowns (TDs) and passing yards.[16] Incidentally, his backup at the time was future Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme, another famous rags-to-riches quarterback story. Returning to the United States for the season, Warner spent the 1998 season as St. Louis's third-string quarterback behind Tony Banks and Steve Bono. He ended his season completing only 4 of 11 pass attempts for 39 yards and a 47.2 QB rating.

1999 season

After releasing Banks and Bono following the 1998 season, the Rams signed free agent Trent Green to be their starting QB, and Warner was promoted to second string. When Green tore his ACL in a preseason game, Warner took over as the Rams' starter. St. Louis coach Dick Vermeil famously stated in a press conference, "We'll rally around Kurt Warner and we will play good football," before even seeing Warner work with the Rams' starting offense. With the support of running back Marshall Faulk and wide receivers Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Az-Zahir Hakim, and Ricky Proehl, Warner put together one of the top seasons by a quarterback in NFL history, throwing for 4,353 yards with 41 touchdown passes and a completion rate of 65.1%. The Rams' high-powered offense, run by offensive coordinator Mike Martz, was nicknamed "The Greatest Show on Turf" and registered the first in a string of three consecutive 500-point seasons, an NFL record.

Warner threw three touchdown passes in each of his first three NFL starts; he is the only NFL quarterback in history to accomplish that feat. Warner drew more attention in the Rams' fourth game of the season, a home game against the San Francisco 49ers (who had been NFC West division champions for 12 of the previous 13 seasons). The Rams had lost their last 17 meetings with the 49ers, but Warner proceeded to throw a touchdown pass on each of the Rams' first three possessions of the game, and four TDs in the first half alone, to propel the Rams to a 28–10 halftime lead on the way to a 42–20 victory. Warner finished the game with five touchdown passes, giving him 14 in four games and the Rams a 4–0 record. Warner's breakout season from a career in anonymity was so unexpected that Sports Illustrated featured him on their October 18 cover with the caption "Who Is This Guy?" [17] He was named the 1999 NFL MVP at the season's end.

 

In the NFL playoffs, Warner ultimately led the Rams to a Super Bowl XXXIV victory against the Tennessee Titans. In the game, he threw for two touchdowns and a Super Bowl-record 414 passing yards, including a critical 73-yard touchdown to Isaac Bruce when the game was tied with just over two minutes to play. Warner also set a Super Bowl record by attempting 45 passes without a single interception. For his performance, Warner was awarded the Super Bowl MVP, becoming the seventh player to win both the league MVP and Super Bowl MVP awards in the same year.

Last edited by ClevelandDad

Greenlight - I can take a shot at your question based on personal experience.  I haven't seen the 10's of thousands of players that PG has but I have seen hundreds at the highest levels of high school ball, hundreds more at the highest levels of college baseball, and hundreds and hundreds more at professional baseball.

 

One thing to keep in mind and this is really important for kids who have the dream - what you see today might not be what you see five years from now if you develop yourself.  A kid in high school who throws 85 will not be drafted out of high school.  That same kid could go to a juco and in two years may be throwing 88 with a nasty curveball and sign a nice D1 scholarship at a mid-major or higher D1.  That same kid might be touching 90 consistently and get drafted in the top 25 rounds of the draft at the end of his college career.  That same kid might develop even more in the pros and progress through the minors improving each year.  That same kid might get his number called someday.  It takes years to get that shot but that is the road for many players.

 

If you develop a trick pitch such as throwing as submariner or knuckleballer, lower velocity may be acceptable even at the big league level if over time, the pitcher throws highly effectively.  Doug Jones toiled for years in the Indians minor league system and they would never give him a shot because his velocity was not high enough.  He was a pitch-to-contact closer and that is definitely out of the mold for closers.  Out of desperation, the Indians finally gave him shot and all he did was go on to become an all-star closer in both leagues.  There are lots of stories like this and I agree the odds are low if the player does not have the ambition to stick to it.  There is a great quote attributed to Bruce Lee - he allegedly said "Talent creates opportunity but desire creates talent"  I'll admit I am a Kool-Aid drinker but sometimes that is what it takes. 

Last edited by ClevelandDad

Thanks, CD. I get where you're coming from.

 

You say a high school righty who tops out at 85 won't be drafted out of high school. I agree.

 

But then I ask myself, "why not"? What thought process are all these pro scouts going thru? One answer would be "odds". What other possibilities can anyone think of.

 

I think I said this before. If anyone thinks a manager/coach/organization is 100% in on your kid...with no Plan B for him....then it is ok for the kid not to have a Plan B either. If you think they may be considering possible options then the kid should too.

 

Mitch Canham's post touched on this also, I think.

 

If anyone is concerned that a kid will be dissuaded from chasing his dream if unfavorable odds are shown to him....then that's gotta be a pretty flimsy dream, I think. That's why I have trouble agreeing with the line of thought that kids shouldn't even be shown the odds (not saying you said that, just a general comment)

Last edited by Green Light
Originally Posted by Green Light:

If anyone is concerned that a kid will be dissuaded from chasing his dream if unfavorable odds are shown to him....then that's gotta be a pretty flimsy dream, I think. That's why I have trouble agreeing with the line of thought that kids shouldn't even be shown the odds (not saying you said that, just a general comment)

GL, one might infer from these comments that players should be shown the odds to know they exist.  For most, I don't know if that is true.  Our son worked out with Daniel Nava during one off season.  One of them wasn't drafted out of college. One of them was drafted from a D3.  Between the two of them, the only odds which mattered were for our son and his odds of recovering from a September labrum surgery in time to be ready to report early to Spring Training. Their workouts challenged the strength and conditioning coach on many days because they were challenging each other.

In college, our son was keenly aware there were "odds" of a D3 guy getting drafted and didn't care. CD and JH interviewed our son on the HSBBW radio.  He was pretty clear that up until the point when he could not get medically cleared to play heading into his 4th year of Milb, he believed he was going to play at the MLB level.

From my perspective, I wonder if we give players enough credit by suggesting they need to know the odds and in some fashion have those quantified. My perspective is most of the ones who make it understand that odds exist, they just don't care about the odds, or what they are. It would not change them if the odds were 20:1 or 100,000:1.  That is their mindset and focus. They see friends "released" from ST every March, every April and throughout a Milb season.  While they care for the friends situation, they don't care, how, if at all the "odds" changed.  They have a single focus on those baseball things in their control. That is something they hear from the very first day of Milb orientation and usually hear weekly, at least, after that. Whether they went 0-4 or 5-5, their mental focus is the next game and being mentally and physically ready to compete. Maybe odds take away from the mental focus and preparation needed for the next game, next work out, next step?  These are incredibly strong minded, determined and focused players, to a very great extent.  One other aspect is many of them truly love and have a passion for the game and competing, which also impacts whether they should know  the odds.

While there are exceptions I am sure,  Milb is a very maturing experience. The mental toughness, focus and elasticity which many exhibit is something I learned to respect, at a very high level. I would question if "showing" them the odds would just be another distraction most don't need???

Last edited by infielddad
Originally Posted by infielddad:
Originally Posted by Green Light:

If anyone is concerned that a kid will be dissuaded from chasing his dream if unfavorable odds are shown to him....then that's gotta be a pretty flimsy dream, I think. That's why I have trouble agreeing with the line of thought that kids shouldn't even be shown the odds (not saying you said that, just a general comment)

GL, one might infer from these comments that players should be shown the odds to know they exist.  For most, I don't know if that is true.  Our son worked out with Daniel Nava during one off season.  One of them wasn't drafted out of college. One of them was drafted from a D3.  Between the two of them, the only odds which mattered were for our son and his odds of recovering from a September labrum surgery in time to be ready to report early to Spring Training. Their workouts challenged the strength and conditioning coach on many days because they were challenging each other.

In college, our son was keenly aware there were "odds" of a D3 guy getting drafted and didn't care. CD and JH interviewed our son on the HSBBW radio.  He was pretty clear that up until the point when he could not get medically cleared to play heading into his 4th year of Milb, he believed he was going to play at the MLB level.

From my perspective, I wonder if we give players enough credit by suggesting they need to know the odds and in some fashion have those quantified. My perspective is most of the ones who make it understand that odds exist, they just don't care about the odds, or what they are. It would not change them if the odds were 20:1 or 100,000:1.  That is their mindset and focus. They see friends "released" from ST every March, every April and throughout a Milb season.  While they care for the friends situation, they don't care, how, if at all the "odds" changed.  They have a single focus on those baseball things in their control. That is something they hear from the very first day of Milb orientation and usually hear weekly, at least, after that. Whether they went 0-4 or 5-5, their mental focus is the next game and being mentally and physically ready to compete. Maybe odds take away from the mental focus and preparation needed for the next game, next work out, next step?  These are incredibly strong minded, determined and focused players, to a very great extent.  One other aspect is many of them truly love and have a passion for the game and competing, which also impacts whether they should know  the odds.

While there are exceptions I am sure,  Milb is a very maturing experience. The mental toughness, focus and elasticity which many exhibit is something I learned to respect, at a very high level. I would question if "showing" them the odds would just be another distraction most don't need???

"He who knows himself is enlightened"

 

If seeing data...in this case percentages or odds....would be a distraction that a person doesn't need, then I agree that this person should not seek to acquire that knowledge.

 

But if a little thing like this could throw him off his game or his dream, then how is he going to deal with the real challenges in life and baseball.

 

Again, I have no intention to preach...although I guess I am sounding that way a little. I am trying to say what I would do, not what I think others should do

I've been quietly following along as most of you have been there and done that with your kids.  But I felt compelled to ask my son why he wants to pursue a career at baseball.  Now please, keep in mind, this is coming from a 14 year old...

 

ME:  Why do you bother playing baseball?  Do you know the odds of playing in the MLB?

SON:  Because I love baseball.  I know the odds are slim to none.

ME:  Then if you know they are slim to none, why bother?  

SON:  Because as long as the odds are more then zero I have a chance.

 

Ahhh, how great is it to be 14 and not concerned with Plan B's.  Those things are what parents worry about.

Strong minded players like Daniel Nava, Eric Davis and many, many others who have come through this site excelled and got to the MLB level without knowing the odds and/or having them quantified.  Thousands before Bob created this site did the same.

I don't get why quantifying the odds adds anything, to be honest. Is more information better and more useful in terms of the road to be plowed or the path to be run...or just more information?

Originally Posted by infielddad:

Strong minded players like Daniel Nava, Eric Davis and many, many others who have come through this site excelled and got to the MLB level without knowing the odds and/or having them quantified.  Thousands before Bob created this site did the same.

I don't get why quantifying the odds adds anything, to be honest. Is more information better and more useful in terms of the road to be plowed or the path to be run...or just more information?

 

I think odds are something that parents worry about.  The players do not.  

 

I can think of several lofty goals that I set for myself when I started my work career. Some of my co-workers laughed as they thought they were unattainable.  I eventually achieved them all.  I never cared about the odds.

 

 

At least in Milb, I would doubt  odds are toward the top of the issues for most players.  From all the discussions I have had and the postings over the years on this site, the mentally challenging aspect  for a lot of Milb players is the lack of feedback and information from the organization. 

With that said, and as others posted in this thread, there is no right or wrong answer.  While the extent of the odds would not matter for some son's, GL may be correct that such information might well matter for others, especially this generation which is growing up  attached to phones, the internet and immediate feedback and data. Perhaps having the data, as PG and GL discussed, might shed light on how it could be used in ways I currently don't see, and bring another round of thoughts to a very interesting HSBBW discussion.

CD,

 

Your post brought back memories.  Kurt Warner is a kid I once coached.  I actually wanted him to concentrate on baseball because I thought it was his best chance for success.  He was also a very good basketball player.  I'm so very happy he didn't do what I thought was in his best interest. His story shows what persistence and belief is all about

 

The article also mentioned Trent Green. He was also from Cedar Rapids.  His biological father is Gene Miller who is still one of my best friends.  After divorce Trent's mother married another good friend Jim Green and moved out of state.

 

Obviously you didn't need to know all this, but we are talking about Cedar Rapids, Iowa, not some big city hotbed for athletics.

 

My youngest son, who pitched briefly for the D'Backs, Yankees and Brewers in the Major Leagues best friend in high school was Dedric Ward who went on to be a wide receiver for several years in the NFL.

 

Yet another kid from Cedar Rapids went on to win the Masters and just beat Tiger Woods last week on on an unbelievable shot. BTW, Zach Johnson was never the best golfer on any golf team HS or college.  But he is one of the best golfers in the world now.

 

BTW, the best basketball player at U of North Carolina right now is from where... Yep, Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Odds are he will end up in the NBA.

 

No one could have predicted any of those above to get to the highest level. But it happens!  Somebody has got to fill those spots at the highest level. Maybe it is TPM's son, or Bums son, or your son.  Maybe it will be someone else's son who posts here.  I'll be honest, I didn't think Zach Duke (opps son) would pitch in the Major Leagues.  Well he has had quite a career in the Big Leagues.

 

Luckily, The odds (whatever they might be) don't mean a damn thing to some people.

Love that post PG. You know there are many people who beat the "odds" that you will never hear about or read about. Guys like Johnathon Howard. A few years back on the first day of summer work outs this guy showed up to work out with us. He was a freshman. We would do a lot of agility drills, speed work, core work and some days work on some baseball stuff. Mostly it was a time for our guys to long toss, get some good work in and many played on the weekends on travel teams. The freshman that thought they wanted to try out were welcome. In fact any one was welcome to come and work out. This program was ran by me over the summer for those who wanted to do it.

 

Jon was about 5'9 and weighed about 250. He was so out of shape it was pathetic. The first day we went to the track to run a mile for time. He ran the first half of a lap and then walked the rest of the mile. He couldn't run one lap. The first day we took infield he went to 3B. When he did field a gb he could not get the ball to first in the air. Yes that is the truth. He simply could not play. He could hardly catch. I had to pull the players to the side one day and tell them if anyone made fun of anyone they were no longer welcome. It was that bad.

 

After about a week I went to Jon and told him that he was welcome to continue to work out. But I wanted to be honest with him and tell him if he was working out with us because he thought it would sway or opinion when cuts were made in the spring he was mistaken. I told him that he needed to use this summer and a start to changing his lifestyle. Eating habits. And to strive to be a healthy young man.

 

Jon made the JV as a freshman and saw only mop up AB's no time in the field. He continued to work so hard in season and out of season. As a soph on JV he saw about the same role. As a Jr on Varsity he rode the pine. As a Sr on Varsity he saw some mop up duty as a catcher. What had changed? He was 5'11 170 lbs and ripped. He ran the mile in 6min. He had confidence in himself. He won the respect of everyone. And he walked on at a very good D3 and won the job as the #3 catcher.

 

He played 4 years of college baseball and as a sr played several games as the #2 catcher. When he walked up that day in June his odds were 0. He changed those odds. The odds are now that he is going to be very successful at what ever he does in life. I believe in people who don't care about the odds. They have a dream and they go for it. Those who have to weigh out possible failure over potential victory will never achieve greatness. They will fail as soon as they see the odds are not in their corner. Those who say to hel with the odds? They put their stake in the ground and they fight. IMO Jon achieved greatness. He was as great as he could possibly be. What more can you ask of anyone?

Great stuff Coach May and infielddad!

 

PG - I knew you had a history with Kurt Warner but figured if Kurt Warner's story was not relevant to this thread than nobody's was.  You could have also mentioned Tim Dwight and Casey Blake but I am pretty sure those guys were recognized as outstanding players in high school and college before going onto successful pro careers.

 

I think Daniel Nava's story is as equally compelling as Kurt Waner's.  If he would have listened to people, I am pretty sure he should have given up the game in 9th grade.

 

Here's a clip from Daniel Nava's bio:

 

High school and college baseball career

Nava was born in Redwood City, California. He played baseball at St. Francis High School in Mountain View, California[1] and received his Psychology degree from Santa Clara University. He was 4 ft 8 in (1.42 m) and 70 pounds (32 kg) in his freshman year in high school and grew to 5 ft 5 in (1.65 m) and 150 pounds (68 kg) by his senior year.[2]

After an opportunity to walk-on to the Santa Clara University baseball team, he failed to make the team as a player and became the team equipment manager.[3]

He left Santa Clara after two years because he could no longer afford the tuition.[3] He then enrolled in the College of San Mateo (junior college).[4] He tried out for the baseball team on the encouragement of an old friend he happened to run into at a gym.[3] While at the College of San Mateo, he became a Junior College All-American. Later Santa Clara wanted him back[5] and eventually offered him a full scholarship.[6] He hit .395 with an on-base percentage of .494 in his lone season with the Broncos, both tops in the West Coast Conference, and earned first-team All-WCC honors. He stole 15 bases without being caught, and he had more walks (31) than strikeouts (29).[3]

Professional Career

Minor Leagues

When Daniel Nava graduated from college, he went undrafted and signed with the Chico Outlaws of the Golden Baseball League. The Outlaws cut him after a tryout, only to bring him back a year later to fill a void.[3] In 2007 Nava hit 12 home runs for the Outlaws, with a .371 batting average and a 1.100 OPS.[7] Nava was named the number one independent league prospect by Baseball America in 2007.[7] Red Sox's assistant director of pro scouting, Jared Porter, recommended the Sox sign Nava from the Chico Outlaws in 2007.[8] The Red Sox paid the Outlaws $1 for the rights to Nava, with an agreement that the Outlaws would receive an additional $1,499 if the Red Sox kept Nava after spring training.[9]

In 2008, he played for low Single-A Lancaster. He hit .341 with 10 home runs and 59 RBI in 85 games. His on-base plus slugging percentage was .948.[10] In 2009, he hit .339 at high Single-A Salem before being called up to Double-A Portland where he batted .364 with four home runs and an exceptional 25-to-12 walk-to-strikeout ratio. His OPS was .991.[11]

In 2010, Daniel Nava spent two months in AAA.[12] At that time he was quoted as saying "I know I have the talent and the ability, and I can keep playing at the next level," he said. "If I didn't think I could, I would have been like, ‘You know what? There’s no point.’ … I definitely thought I could perform and perform well. That’s why I kept on going. Quitting’s just not much of an option for me."[3]

Boston Red Sox (2010-present)

Nava made his Major League debut with the Boston Red Sox on June 12, 2010 at Fenway Park as the starting left fielder against the Philadelphia Phillies. He was called up to help with the team's outfield situation, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Jeremy Hermida on the disabled list and Josh Reddick optioned to the minor leagues for more playing time.

Taking the advice of Red Sox radio broadcaster Joe Castiglione, who before the game told him to swing as hard as he could on the first pitch because "that's the only first pitch in the majors you'll ever see," Nava did swing at the first pitch he saw and hit a grand slam off Phillies pitcher Joe Blanton into the Red Sox bullpen. Nava is only the fourth player to have hit a grand slam in his first at-bat, joining Bill Duggleby in 1898, Jeremy Hermida in 2005 and Kevin Kouzmanoff in 2006. Nava is only the second player, after Kouzmanoff, to do so on the first pitch of his Major League career,[13] and the first player in Major League Baseball history to achieve a grand slam on his first-ever MLB career at-bat while in interleague play

 

 

Last edited by ClevelandDad

I am in question as to why there are negative comments towards Floridanfan.  He is only telling you how his son sees the process, he is fixed on his baseball career, he doesn't have to be thinking about what's next.

 

Odds, now I know that I have mentioned this before, Greg Maddux's dad was a dealer in Las Vegas. Maddux claims he used odds to pitch his game, taught by his dad.   I can believe it.

 

In 2006 when we were in Omaha, Mr.TPM and DK and I hopped on a bus back to downtown hotel. He was off that night and we went to watch a game.  On the bus we met a few of the players from Oregon, one of them being Mitch Canham.  Oregon was considered the underdog that year, they beat the odds and won a national championship.  That was their first.

 

When Dave reported to the Cape after Omaha, one of his catchers was Mitch, what about those odds, meeting one of your future teammates on a bus in Omaha.

 

One question, why would a team consider drafting and paying a pitcher who is max 85 when there are many in milb who pitch well above 90, get the job done and never reach the ML field?

 

BTW, I hope that some of you have taken the opportunity to check out the site, very good concept. Who can mentor a young player better than an experienced player?

 

 

The first time we saw Rusty I believe was his sophomore year.  He topped out in the upper 70s.  The next time we saw him and the first time for me personally was before his senior year in high school.  He topped out in the upper 80s.

 

Not that often do I get overly excited about a smaller pitcher throwing mid to upper 80s, but this time was an exception.  First of all knowing how much he had improved and seeing how easy it looked for him and watching him make some very good prospects look silly at the plate.... Not trying to act like a genius, but I knew this was a very special kid.  One that was going to make a name for himself. Unusual is something I always look for in a baseball player.  Rusty was definitely unusual in a very good way.

 

The one thing that really stood out to me in that interview is Rusty's passion for the game.  Something I learned a long time ago.... People tend to do the things best that they love doing the most.

 

I do think Bum Sr. maybe gets a little overly proud at times, but then again he has good reason to be. Hell I'm proud of Rusty, too, and I'm not even related to him.

 

I have been lucky to have known many outstanding young players before they became professionals.  It has amazed me how many of these kids are just plain great kids.  You know, before there was a Mike Trout Major League star, there was a Mike Trout young kid.  I know it's off the topic, but I for one think baseball just keeps getting better because of the quality of the young people entering the game.  Before anyone says anything... I've also met a few that aren't such great kids. But most are just plain good people with or without baseball. I think baseball is in good shape.

Hey Bum! Awesome interview by Rusty! I love how big his eyes get when he shares his passion for the game.

 

Regarding the odds... I know this is a misplaced analogy in many respects, however it does have a foundation in Human Nature.

 

At the beginning of WWII at the time of the D-Day invasion as the ships were sailing across the Atlantic, the Soldiers were presented with the opportunity to purchase Life Insurance for themselves. Very few completed an application. Did they know the odds of them dying on the shore of one of those beaches? The odds that their loved ones would receive a form of monetary compensation if they failed to return home? Did they calculate the odds of making it out of the landing craft?

 

Some things are best not to dwell upon, particularly topics that focus on our failure to live up to our own expectations. The will to live, or the will to find success.

 

There is no comparison to what our brave forefathers endured on Omaha Beach, and my point is not to minimize in any way the sacrifice that they made for our country.

 

But it is none the less illustrative of Human Nature. Those that focus only on the objective at hand with fewer mental distractions and luck (yes luck) are more likely to reach their destination and achieve their individual goal.

 

Burn the ships at the shore! Plenty of time for building new ships to complete our journey, once our objectives have been satisfied, to the best of our abilities and good fortune.

Last edited by floridafan

I've always advocated Living the Baseball Dream. On this site, I've been busted for it before.  So I'm delighted to see many others say Go For It! After all, if all the young people acted like a bunch of old fogies, the mlb wouldn't have anyone to draft (at least from the US). They would have dropped baseball for advanced classes and early graduation while on their way to a "marketable degree". 

 

My older son, with his degree in technical theater, minor in stage management, is happy as a clam with his liberal arts degree. He just married his sweetheart, and is living the life in NYC. Making enough money to actually save some (woot), and planning to move back here when it's time to have a family, (Yes!!)  

 

So for those of us with kids who are, umm. let's say less academically inclined, but creative or (in the case of my youngest) athletically talented, plan B may be murky. Yet, we support both boys in using their gifts and talents and working towards goals they were both discouraged from pursuing. (by well meaning adults) The youngest is still working hard, despite a few setbacks, dreaming big. Who knows what's in his future?  

Originally Posted by floridafan:
...Those that focus only on the objective at hand with fewer mental distractions and luck (yes luck) are more likely to reach their destination and achieve their individual goal....

Great quote and a good illustration of the merit of a "no plan B" mentality.  I'm always torn on this issue as I agree with the above but also think it is important for young players to make strides in preparation for the day when the game tells them they can no longer play.  Even for those who reach the highest levels, they will likely be quite young when that day comes.  What steps will they have taken along the way to assure they can pursue other passions in a manner that will allow them to provide for themselves and perhaps a family?

Striving to separate and do both, I think, is a great mental approach.  Easier said than done and thus makes for a great discussion.

Last edited by cabbagedad

I think a large part of the problem in this discussion is the use of the term "odds".  The "odds" that most are referring to here are "observational".  By that I mean they take into account what has happened in the past.  i.e.  How many high school baseball players in a given window of observation went on to play baseball in college.  I think PG Staff and others are objecting to using these "observational" odds as "predictive" odds for any given kid.  I would tend to agree.  The "odds" that my son will play baseball at the next level are either ZERO or 100%.  He will either make it or he won't.  He can't "5%" play at the next level. 

Alden,

 

You nailed it! I like it.  What are "your" odds? Either Zero or 100%! Either you do or you don't.

 

Part of what bothers me when we talk about odds is that it seems to carry some kind of negative message.  Like those that don't make it will end up being destroyed for the rest of their lives.  How many of us have failed to reach our goals?  How many might have been better off had we known the odds of achieving those goals ahead of time?

 

I like people who are willing to take on challenges. Even the most challenging things.  I can't imagine living without a few thrills along the way. IMO Kids should chase their dreams until they decide to change their dream. I believe those type kids learn things that others will never know.  Where would this world be if everyone relied on the odds against achieving great things.

 

Think about those that became World champions in individual sports like Boxing, Wrestling, Tennis, etc.  There is only one out of however many there are. But there will always be ONE!  It will never be a person who looked at the odds and went another direction. To me there is nothing negative in giving it all you got to accomplish your goals.  There is something negative about giving up because of the odds.

 

Actually when I started this thread, I figured people would disagree with what some people believe is my warped thinking.  Then again, I knew certain people would think the same way.  I had no doubt as to how coach May would look at this.  It actually makes me feel good that so many that post here are believers in "shooting for the moon". BTW, this does not pertain to just baseball.  I wish every kid would try to be what he wants to be. I don't suppose there is anything wrong with playing it safe though.

 

One last thing about odds. When it comes to sports anyway, how often are the odds wrong?  What were the odds last year at this time that the Red Sox would be World Champions in 2013?  Seems like the Red Sox odds should have been 30 to 1 based on 30 MLB clubs.  Of course, you have to consider the Cubs, so maybe the odds would be 29 to 1. 

 

 

Not meaning to brag or anything, but I can hold two thoughts in my head......to shoot for the moon, if I wish, and understand the odds for success........ at the same time.

 

Doesn't make me better or smarter or more courageous than anyone else. If a person is not able to shoot for the moon and understand the chances at the same time, then I agree they should not.

 

Lots of industries are built on selling dreams. Lots of people enjoy chasing dreams.I do not mean to rain on those parades.

Last edited by Green Light
Originally Posted by PGStaff:

 

One last thing about odds. When it comes to sports anyway, how often are the odds wrong?  What were the odds last year at this time that the Red Sox would be World Champions in 2013?  Seems like the Red Sox odds should have been 30 to 1 based on 30 MLB clubs.  Of course, you have to consider the Cubs, so maybe the odds would be 29 to 1. 

 

 

Sports betting odds are published with the sole purpose of trying to balance the house's books, no?

 

The number of high school righties who have topped out at 85 and been drafted, compared to all high school righties who have been drafted, is quantifiable data...whether anyone wants to look at it, or it might be a dream-killer, or whatever.

 

Does that help to explain the distinction?

Originally Posted by Alden:

I think a large part of the problem in this discussion is the use of the term "odds".  The "odds" that most are referring to here are "observational".  By that I mean they take into account what has happened in the past.  i.e.  How many high school baseball players in a given window of observation went on to play baseball in college.  I think PG Staff and others are objecting to using these "observational" odds as "predictive" odds for any given kid.  I would tend to agree.  The "odds" that my son will play baseball at the next level are either ZERO or 100%.  He will either make it or he won't.  He can't "5%" play at the next level. 

Alden, you and I have different understandings of what "odds" means.

 

To me, the odds on whether a high school righty who tops out at 85 will be drafted, tells me the chances that yes he will be drafted (100%)  or no he won't be drafted (0%). If the odds are 10%, it doesn't mean that each kid will be 10% drafted (whatever that means). It is a predictor based on available data that 10 out of 100 will be drafted. Maybe 11 will be drafted, maybe 2 will, it is just a predictor based on historical data.

 

Not directed to you, but in general, one of the industries that sells dreams is youth marketing. I would be interested to know. What do y'all do when a top baseball school that would appear to be beyond your kid's skill set invites him to a camp with temptations of roster spots available? Or what do you do if you get a flyer that screams "50 MLB Scouts Guaranteed to Attend!!" Do you let the kid automatically just chase his dream? Or do you figure out some informal odds before you plunk down your $500+?

 

(No reference to regular posters on HSBBW intended or suggested)

 

What do you do when a college markets a special summer academic program to your kids with *wink-wink* the suggestion that this would be a perfect credential to get him/her into a top school? Feed the dream if little Johnnie or Janie says it is a dream, or assess the practicality?

 

What do you do when your kid says a fill-in-the-blank CWS perennial school is his dream, and (to borrow from another poster) he has Ripple talent and Champagne dreams? Tell him to go balls to the wall, heck be damned, follow your dream, no Plan B, screw the odds?

 

I do not intend for this to sound challenging. Really interested in responses. Our family cannot afford...financially or through opportunity cost....to let the kids chase every dream without assessing the prospects....."odds".

Last edited by Green Light

Wow, a thread with all the great contributors, what a good one. Floridafan, TPM, Jerry, CD, Coach May, Bum, RJM…great reading for a long offseason. These people have been there done that.

 

For my son, he had a plan B all along. Took care of things in school. He knew the odds of a catcher - with a PG rating of 7, a lifetime amateur BA of around .300, and 4 collegiate home runs at a D2 school getting an opportunity to play professional baseball were very slim.

 

But I believe he got the opportunity he did by saying I am second – to the pitching staffs he supported throughout the years. That and being in the right place at the right time. Over 20 pitchers caught in the minors now, with more yet to get there.  17 was the first catcher in the United States for one Miami Marlin Jose Fernandez – and the team rode him and another excellent pitcher to the Florida state championship 17’s Senior year.

 

Commitment to the team has been the way he goes about things as quoted in these articles:

 

The Senior catcher has one goal for his senior season with the University of Tampa baseball team: return to the national championship… “I wouldn’t want anything else to happen. If I could be a part of that and help in any way I can for the team, which would be my ultimate goal. This season being my last, it would be a great note to go out on.”  

 

And go out they did….D2 Natty Champs baby.

 

And how does he really feel about the guys with all the money?

 

"I'm always talking to (pitchers) about their pitches, how they're feeling on a particular day, how we're going to go about attacking hitters. I just try to take as much information as I can and apply it to the game, so it's easier on them on the mound, so they don't have to think as much. That's my main goal, to just kind of let them not think too much. I'll take that and try to think for them. We're working together. It's kind of a chemistry you have to have with one another. That's the only way it's going to work."

 

Now he is plying his trade as a Non Drafted Free Agent. Day to day is what we say. His rookie season saw as many as 9 bullpen sessions per day, 6 days a week in 95/95 humidity. He got on the field for a few games. Caught 3 of the MLB team starting pitcher rehab sessions on a routine basis and was well received. “Do whatever they ask me to dad.” At this point he says, “I have everything to gain and very little to lose, so I am all in.”

 

And he also knows that the only thing that may have separated him from a Jeff May was geography and a little more pitching. Love you Coach May and in the end our young men will be better off for facing the bear and taking a huge bite out of it.

 

For 17, he was always aware of the odds and the odds at each level don’t get better, they get worse.  And you change them through hard work, all while being prepared to do something else.

Last edited by Backstop-17

The point I am making about "odds" is that the numbers refer to populations.  Parents are interested not in populations but one kid...theirs.  He will either make it (100%) or he won't (0%).  That said, I believe kids should be told the truth about their abilities along the way.  The "truth" is obviously different for a 12 year old middle schooler than it is for a 17year old senior.  And there are way too many "experts" willing to take your money and tell you whatever "truth" you want to hear.

Originally Posted by Alden:

The point I am making about "odds" is that the numbers refer to populations.  Parents are interested not in populations but one kid...theirs.  He will either make it (100%) or he won't (0%). 

That fact does not imply that at any given point in time an individual player has either a 0% or 100% chance of making it, though.  If you're trying to make decisions about the future today, you have to assess the probability of various outcomes, and basing your decisions on a binary outcome of either he will or he won't isn't going to help you make intelligent decisions.

 

To put in personal terms, my son is a sophomore playing HS baseball.  He therefore has a non-zero chance of playing MLB, a different but higher chance of playing MiLB, a different but higher still chance of playing college ball, etc.  We make decisions on his baseball endeavors accounting for all these chances, with very little weight given to the pro outcomes given the relatively long odds.

Originally Posted by Alden:

The point I am making about "odds" is that the numbers refer to populations.  Parents are interested not in populations but one kid...theirs.  He will either make it (100%) or he won't (0%).  That said, I believe kids should be told the truth about their abilities along the way.  The "truth" is obviously different for a 12 year old middle schooler than it is for a 17year old senior.  And there are way too many "experts" willing to take your money and tell you whatever "truth" you want to hear.

I agree!!

 

So what do we as parents do? Maybe we don't go get spreadsheets, but in our own way we try to assess the prospects or "odds". (Edit: I think jacjac is saying the same thing in a different way--I also agree with jacjac's post)

 

Maybe I should have stated this earlier:

 

1. I think when a youngster is trying to choose between options...if he is fortunate to have them....he should get all the information he/she can about the comparative likelihood for success before deciding whether to go with the surer thing or the longer shot.

 

 

2. I think once a youngster has committed to a course of action...whether it is the surer thing or the longer shot... he should go all out, 100%, to try to achieve success.

 

3. I think 1 and 2 have absolutely nothing to do with each other

Last edited by Green Light

I'm not sure what the rush is to start a career.  Minor leaguers who wash up are still in their 20's.  There's plenty of time to flush a pension fund.  When you're 70 years old, would you rather have $200 bucks a month more in savings or $2,000,000 in memories?  (How many 20-somethings save anyway.)  Life is the journey, not the destination.

So if you have some odds what do you do with them? Not everyone here sees the world the same. Let's say a kid is told its over after signing at eighteen and spending ten years in the minors. But he's offered a job coaching in the minors for 30k. Some people might look at having washed out and starting college at twenty-eight as failure. Others might consider being offered a minor league coaching job as living a dream as a career baseball man.

Originally Posted by RJM:

So if you have some odds what do you do with them?

I would take the odds into account along with other relevant information about the pros/cons of available alternatives, have some self-awareness about my tolerance for risk-taking/risk-aversion, and try to make a good decision for me. I would not ignore relevant information or flip a coin or something like that.

 

That's just me, not saying this is the what others must do.

 

I kinda do this with all decisions. How do others out there make decisions?

And back to square one.  Lets do compare it to poker, are the odds better if your holding two aces or a two and a seven of different suit?  Those two hands certainly don't have the same odds of winning.

 

You have Justin Upton and someone that is a reserve on a bad high school Team.  They certainly don't have the same odds of playing at a higher level.  In fact, one has nearly a 100% chance, the other has nearly a zero % chance. From one player to another the odds are different.  And there is no scientific way of determining anyone's true odds.

 

As to selling dreams, that can't be done.  You can sell opportunity, you. Can't sell someone their dream.  I have seen many young players that should change their dream if it involves playing at the highest levels of baseball.  They simply don't possess the talent necessary and should not be considered in the odds of making it.  They can chase all they want and will find out at a very young age this is not in the future for them.  No odds of making it involved.  They move on in life and do something else. Hopefully they will have fond memories of playing organized baseball. Hopefully it taught them something worthwhile, something that might help them become successful.

 

So YES! You have the near 100% guys and the near Zero guys. Now with all those in between what are the odds?   If someone can answer that question they need to be running a Major League organization.  Because that is precisely what scouts do for a living.  They are the ones that determine your odds.   If they think you are a first round pick, they believe your odds are near 100%. Otherwise they wouldn't select you in the first round.  If they pick you in the middle rounds, they are telling you you have a chance.  If they pick you late in the draft, they hope you will develop, but they don't think you will make it.  If they don't want you at all, they are telling you they don't think you have a chance.   Maybe this is the point where the odds come into play.   Do you continue to chase the dream (like a Kurt Warner) because the odds are greatly against you?   Or do you give it up and start preparing for life without baseball.  Either way you are still young and capable of accomplishing great things in your life time. I can understand why some would keep chasing and can also understand why some might move on to something else.

 

Just for the record, I've never wanted to take money from someone we can't help.  I don't want bad players at our events.  It is embarrassing to us and more importantly embarrassing to the player.  If I knew for certain someone was a bad player and we couldn't help him one bit, I would tell him not to attend our events.  In fact, I have done exactly that many times.  That said, we still get some players that have no chance and yes, we do take their money.  But I never feel very good about that. This country has enough talented kids that do have a chance.  Surely, everyone here has noticed there  are lots of talented kids out there. Some will blossom, some won't, we don't always know which will do what, but that part is not up to us.  

 

So I can't speak for everyone, but nobody in our organization is selling dreams.  No one, including us, can fulfill someone's dream to play baseball at a high level other than the player himself. Have we taken money from players with no chance? YES. But we don't want to! We don't want those kids to spend money on us. However, you could be the worlds worst player and if we didn't know that, there are a few PG events you can get into.  But you will not be happy with the results.  You don't need us and we don't need you. No disrespect at all, just the way it is.

 

Thanks to all, I've really enjoyed reading everyone's good thoughts on the subject.  In the end  things will keep moving along no matter what any of us believe. 

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

I do think Bum Sr. maybe gets a little overly proud at times, but then again he has good reason to be. Hell I'm proud of Rusty, too, and I'm not even related to him.

 

PG, I really appreciate your kindness and your post about Rusty.  And although I'm not related to you either you are still family--baseball family.

I'm working on that humility thing, LOL.

Last edited by Bum

I feel the same way Bum. And it's easy saying nice things about Rusty.  

 

You know I never really care about whether someone agrees with my opinions.  It's not hard to respect someone with a different opinion even if you disagree. Besides, there is always the possibility that you are wrong.  

 

The amount of knowledge and real experience among those that participate here has always astounded me.  Sometimes I wish I didn't have the PG connection and could just let it loose.  Then I will read something Coach May and others write and it makes my day, knowing people like this are speaking out here. Sometimes I get the feeling that Coach May and I grew up on the same block and mentored by the same people. Though he got the brains and the looks, I am taller!  Guess that means I am the better prospect based on what I read here.

 

 

It's interesting that you took that whole "selling dreams" personally, PGStaff. PG wasn't among the organizations that came to my mind when I read that.

 

But as PG continues to grow, I wonder (since it's almost axiomatic: the larger the organization, the less direct control) ... does it worry you that the PG brand, which in my perception is about high-quality baseball for high-quality players ... is at risk?

 

 

jp24,

 

Actually I didn't take it personally.  It just reminded me that others have said that about PG in the past.  Selling dreams, taking advantage of kids dreams, etc.  so once I heard that mentioned even if not about us, it touched a nerve from previous experiences. It is not something we are interested in.

 

i've never heard the word axiomatic.  So it's hard to respond to that.  Perfect Game is growing faster than ever.  In fact, we are scheduled to open a new complex in Georgia next year. We are close to announcing a big partnership with a very well known company.  

 

No doubt our organization is geared toward quality players.  While that does somewhat limit the numbers, it is very appealing to scouting departments, college coaches, agents, and many businesses that have an interest in the top level players.  That in turn becomes very appealing to the talented baseball players.  Our new motto will be... If you're good enough, they will find you, at a Perfect Game event.  Nearly every Major League player under the age of 26 that was born in the USA has been to a Perfect Game event, usually much more than one event. Nearly every first round pick out ofbhigh school in the past 15 years has been to a PG event.   That method has worked very well for PG and it seems to grow a lot every year.

 

I'm always aware of the possibility of things going bad, but I don't have much time to spend worrying about it.  We are still trying hard to get better. We have many very loyal employees and that is probably the main responsibility these days.  Those are the people that would concern me the most if we were to fail. It's a big obligation and one that is not taken lightly. I've watched people raise families, while they gave PG so much over a long period of time. That's the only thing that scares me about failing.

 

 

 

 

I've followed this thread a bit, but haven't read it all. But from what I have read, it seems I might have something to add.

 

As parents, we all know the "odds" of our youngsters eventually playing in the major leagues. I've never thought, however, that the reality of long odds was a reason to discourage the dream. From a very early age it has been my son's goal to play big league baseball. Why discourage such a dream?

 

I remember so clearly one day, my son and I driving to his practice, he was maybe 11 years old. He looked at me, and asked: "Dad, do you think I can make it?"

 

I remember it so vividly. Do I tell him the reality of how unlikely it was that he would ever end up being a major league baseball player? I decided that there was plenty of time for that. I answered with the truth, if not the entire truth: "Yes, I think you can make it."

 

I've thought about that moment a lot over the years. As baseball parents, we all want to strike the right balance between encouraging our kids to go as far as they can in the game, while keeping a healthy perspective on the bigger picture. How do we encourage our kids to realize their dreams in baseball and at the same time make sure that other doors remain open?

 

We didn't want to discourage his dream, but at the same time we wanted to make sure that he would be prepared for life beyond baseball.

 

Part of the answer, for us, was to have him play college baseball at the best combination of competitive baseball and top tier academics as possible. Frankly, this was more a priority of mine than his during his recruiting experience. But I believe that he saw the wisdom in it as he matured.

 

When Duke came calling, that was obviously a no brainer.

 

So, he graduates from Duke after a good career, but goes undrafted. The "odds" are against him. The problem: he loves the game, and is not ready to quit. He has always been the guy coaches love  when they see him play over extended periods, but they don't fall in love at first sight.

 

He signed and played last summer with an Indy league club, and did very well. Anyone think he doesn't understand the odds of making it in baseball from the Indy leagues? Of course he does.

 

But he loves the game. Tell him he's got a 1% chance of climbing the ladder to the top, and he just kind of gives you a blank stare. It's almost irrelevant to him, because he likes playing baseball.

 

But none of that means he has not set himself up to have options after his playing days are over. He is working in the off season at Nike, and expects to have a career track job with the company after his baseball days are over. 

 

So, the "odds" are irrelevant. He will play until they tell him he is done, and then he will pursue the avenues that he has set himself up to pursue awn the cleats are on the wall.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have two lifelong friends who I played with in HS many years ago.  They both went on to play in college.  One went on to win an Olympic gold medal, was drafted, and played several years at the MLB level.  He played in all star games as well as the World Series.  He's a coach now.  The other player did not reach the next level.  Instead, has enjoyed a successful career in business.  He turned 49 yesterday...and is still playing baseball in an adult wooden bat league.  He hasn't missed a season since he was 7 years old.  The best thing about this guy is his unbridled enthusiasm for the game and the way he played...think Pete Rose.  Both of my friends are exceedingly happy and owe so much to the game of baseball.  I know for a fact neither ever cared about odds of anything.  Both just wanted to play.  In my opinion, it's parents who care about odds, not players.  Players just want to play.  Why must it go any deeper than that?  Let the players play and when it's all over so be it.  It was over for me in HS but I don't love the game any less than when I was a kid hoping to be a pro one day. Life is too short to worry about odds.  If all any of us did was worry about odds what a boring, limiting life it would be.

Thanks CD. 

 

This has been a very interesting thread with some great points that I had not considered.  While I still feel strongly (I want as much data as possible!) there are some very valid points that we (parents) temper our thoughts and the data points with our sons.  Our job as a parent is to coach, guide ,councel and provide opportunities.  It isn't to sour our sons on the idea of chasing their dreams.  If they ask for our opinions, we should provide one albeit a different message based on their talent, age and maturity.  JMO.

I'm a little late to the party on this one however I found this thread to be a very interesting topic (thanks Jerry). Since my player is one of those currently trying to "beat the odds” in his pro career, here's my two cents.

 

By the time Jeseyson was drafted out of HS he felt he had already beaten the odds to be put in that position.  In his mind the odds were a non-issue and to some degree he felt the odds were in his favor.  Would he have felt that way if they wanted him to sign for a bus ticket and meal money...probably not?  We had many conversations about “the odds” during the process of deciding if he should sign as a pro or go to college.  At the end of the day… to him, this is was a once in a lifetime opportunity and he wanted to go for it.  The odds were not something that were going to discourage him, if anything I think it just clarified for him that he was making a choice to compete against the best in the world and he better not take anything for granted.  As a parent that's about all I could ask for in his decision making process (yes his bonus helped me to to feel better about his decision).

 

The other sub topic of this thread seems to be that a faction of our tribe believes it should be an "all in" plan to try to beat the odds of making it (MLB, MILB, College, and HS).  While I certainly respect other opinions, I don't know why it has to be that way?  In my personal and professional life I have always had an A, B and sometimes C plans (goals) on the board.  More realistically, it was probably more that my plan A incorporated components of my B & C goals so I adjusted them as needed. With Jerseyson I think he is taking the same type of approach...His plan A is to pitch in the major leagues someday, the other components of that plan are for him was to work on earning his degree while still playing so that it will hopefully enhance his career in the future (be it baseball, business or candlestick making).  The point is, why can't a player focus on the baseball aspect of their life while still working towards other life goals?

 

Whether he makes it or not I’d say he (and many of our boys) have already beaten many odds…just can’t wait to see where they all end up. 

 

Last edited by jerseydad
Originally Posted by fenwaysouth:

Thanks CD. 

 

 Our job as a parent is to coach, guide ,councel and provide opportunities.  It isn't to sour our sons on the idea of chasing their dreams.  If they ask for our opinions, we should provide one albeit a different message based on their talent, age and maturity.  JMO.

That's my opinion also.  There is no reason to not help support our sons dreams and the career paths they wish to pursue, but at the same time, it is also our job to be realistic in the messages that we send.  And it is important for it to be about what they want not what we want.

 

What data do we need to show to prove a point about odds? Almost all of our players obviously did have plan. I know that many of our websters sons wished to play professional ball,   but most (mine included) went to college first.  Some had no choice, some did because they thought their odds would be better going to college. 

 

Some were drafted and others not, but the bottom line is that they all knew that if it didn't happen out of HS, it could happen out of college.

 

 

 

 

 

Runningaway,

 

As a math major what would your son come up with for the odds?  Same as everyone?  Would he take into account his ability compared to others? 

 

Hate to keep repeating this, but odds are different for every one.  It's not like the odds of winning the lottery. In baseball the odds are determined by the player and even more so by those that assess his ability.  The college recruiter has a good idea of the odds of a player helping his program.  The pro scouts have a good idea of the odds of a player making it to the Big Leagues.  After all, that is the main reason for grading players and having a draft or even signing free agents. Those the scouts feel have the very best odds of playing in the Big Leagues get drafted first.  Their odds are excellent!

 

So some might ask... What are the odds of being selected in the first round or first 5-10 rounds.  Well, that goes right back to the individual's ability and makeup. The odds are never the same for every person.  In fact, they can be altogether different.

 

Whether someone has a plan B, plan C, or whatever, is also an individual thing.  Maybe that should be a different topic.  Going to college is already a plan B, because we all know it's not required to go to college to be a Major League Baseball player.

 

My argument isn't about any plans, it's about the meaningless odds people keep talking about. In baseball a players true odds are determined by other people.  You could say that they do it for a living. If they are wrong a lot they will need a plan B.  Then it is all up to the player, is he persistent, is he a hard worker, mentally tough?  Many people have dreams, but not everyone is willing to do what it takes to realize those dreams. Of course, many fail to reach their goals.  That doesn't mean chasing that goal was a waste of time. In fact, I consider it a big plus!  There can always be a new goal! Chasing goals with great effort is a good thing, it's a good habit to get into.

PG, I was talking in general if my son was drafted I would hope that he had a plan B maybe a plan C. When my kids talked about future majors we talked about jobs that interested them and we looked at the job prospects in the fields they were interested in. Looking at some of the different occupations like doctor's, lawyers accountants etc., we personally know many. We don't know ANY semi pro or Pro athletes.They are a rare commodity...even the ones who are paid poorly...(which is sad). If my son had the opportunity to play baseball beyond college we would be happy for him, but would say have a plan beyond baseball because of how hard it is to make it.

 

I think very successful people are highly self driven be it in the classroom or on the playing field.

 

 

 

 

Last edited by Runningaway

Excellent post by PG!

 

Runningaway,

You can contact me with any questions you may have regarding professional ball on the lower level (MILB).

Because you know of no one, you really don't know exactly what it all entails. I would be happy to answer any questions.

Or you could contact Mitch BBP with any questions as well.

 

I want to throw some numbers I read a couple of years ago that add to PGs last post. 84% of American players in MLB were drafted in the first ten rounds. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. So if you're trying to calculate odds they are much different if a player is selected in the top ten rounds versus rounds 21-40. Imagine, in the past being drafted in rounds 41-60. MLB doesn't consider these rounds relevant enough to conduct them anymore. 

 

Has anyone made a MLB career out of being a late round pick? Sure. But the odds are long. There aren't many. Real late picks are often friends or relatives of the GM. Mike Piazza was selected in the 60th round as a favor to one of Tom Lasorda's lifelong buddies from Norristown PA.

Last edited by RJM

not exactly right RJM. He got a workout in front of a dodger scout, where he proceeded to tear the cover off the ball. The scout was still unimpressed and said he could find 10 firstbasemen better then him. Maybe if he was a catcher the scout said where Lasorda told Mike to go behind the plate. The rest as they say is history. Lets not forget that Pete Rose was signed just as a favor to his father. That's one and one that should be a HOFer that maybe wouldn't have had a chance. Still don't know why no one wanted Mike as those trees at Miami Dade are far far away from home plate where he was hitting them. Go figure.

And as far as picks of friends and reletives RJM let me assure you that the nepotism that was at the back end of the draft is alive and well. As a matter of fact it is creeping even further up into the early rounds as this years draft showed. 40 or 60 rounds as long as you get a shot you never know. That's why they play the games and don't hand victories out over whats on paper.

Old man ... I was told face to face by one of Piazza's relatives Piazza's one was drafted as a favor to his father by Lasorda. They were all buddies who grew up together. The relative was part of the geezer gang in the Burger King in our town. I got to know him because he knew of my son going back to high school.

Originally Posted by oldmanmoses:

And as far as picks of friends and reletives RJM let me assure you that the nepotism that was at the back end of the draft is alive and well. As a matter of fact it is creeping even further up into the early rounds as this years draft showed. 40 or 60 rounds as long as you get a shot you never know. That's why they play the games and don't hand victories out over whats on paper.

Thank you for your confirmation. I don't see where I posted its gone away.

I didn't necessarily mean anything bad happening (though it does).  I meant understanding its a business, understanding things that are not explained when a young player is eager to begin his pro career. 

 

Here is an example, one might be that many players do not make full season teams, they now will spend months playing at their complexes, up at dawn and done at 1-2 until June. 

 

Now that may be really good for a player in rehab, but is that productive for a late sign out of HS?  Maybe his time might be best served by attending JUCO or a 4 year program to start on plan B.

How about injury?  Do players know their rights when an injury occurs? A late sign rookie without an agent has to take the word of the team trainer, team doctor (or maybe the closest doctor to that location).  Injury means lost time, so you have to know when to hold it and when to fold it, as they say.

 

I am not referring to the guys that get paid nice money to sign and have agents to advise them, but to those who basically have the greater odds against them.

 

Most people don't understand, I know I didn't, I am not sure you did either, so how would a player in HS and his family know if they have never spoken to anyone in that situation?

Last edited by TPM

My view on this subject has changed as my son has aged. He graduated from college 3-years ago, played one summer of pro ball and then went on to graduate school.

 

As a parent you never truly look at the odd of success in any one aspect of your son's life. You look at the cumulative growth that experiences bring.

 

Probability of gaining fame and fortune in baseball is slim to none. However, the experiences that one gains at any level can be the foundation for success at some aspect of life.

 

I was reading Rob Kremer's post above. I remember meeting Rob when his son was going through the recruiting phase out of high school. His son and mine are very similar, good kids, smart and hardworking. Were they going to be big time pro baseball stars; no, but they were going to learn through success and failure the lessons that will carry them through life.

 

For all the parents that post here; this thread is not about "probability of success in baseball;" it is about learning lessons that will create a bright future for our country. It is about the lessons learned through competition, success and failure, commitment to your teammates and yourself.

 

My son had a great baseball career in college. Ultimately, everyone's baseball career ends the lessons learned will carry those that care about what the game really means to a productive and successful life.

 

My son received his MBA from the University of Texas this week, he is getting married this spring. Yet what got him is job was not what he did in the classroom it was the ability to tell a good story about his experience playing baseball.

 

The odds of success in life improve for young men that commit to excellence no matter where they choose to compete.

I have enjoyed this thread thanks PG for starting it. Were talking about playing a sport. Were talking about a sport where your going to fail a great deal even when you are very good at it. There are so many variables to what were talking about here. Every young man that picks up a baseball and decides they want to play this game has a certain natural born skill set. God given tools. Every kid has a different genetic make up were dealing with. Every kid has a different mental make up. And the list goes on and on.

 

Every players odds of "making it" are different. Some overcome great odds to make it. Some have better odds of making it and fail miserably at the game. Players imo can't focus on the odds. They either love the game and want to achieve all they can in this game or they don't. They are either willing to do what it's going to take for them to make it or they are not. They are either willing to scuff and grind or they are not. They are willing to fail to succeed or they are not.

 

I think the key is how is making it defined? If making it is defined by making the show then the odds are obviously slimmer. If making it is defined as playing in college they are not as slim. And so on. What can we ask of a player? IMO its simple. You are either all in or all out. You are either going to be all you can be or your not. If you reach that goal of being all you can be you have made it in this game. So for me the kid that is all he can be and makes his HS team one day has made it. And the kid that was not all he could be and only made the college team did not make it.

 

Do the odds scare you from being all you can be? If so the odds matter to you. If the odds have no bearing in you being all you can be then they don't mean squat. Look we all know the odds of making it to the MLB are slim. Who cares? Heck I have beat the odds several times and didn't even know it until someone told me. And to be honest I didn't care.

 

All I wanted my boys to get out of sports was to learn how to deal with failure and success. To learn what it means to be part of something bigger than them. To experience the joy of victory and learn to deal with failure. To understand the meaning of sharing a common goal and learn how to fight for something. To be all they could be in whatever they decided to do. The odds of the endeavor when stacked against you should drive you to be the best you can possibly be. Not cause you to shrink and run from the opportunity. I have always like the saying "If it was easy everyone would do it."

 

One of my proudest moments while watching my youngest son play baseball happened his RS Soph season in college. Game is 2-1 its the bottom of the 9th. He is 0-3 with 3 ugly K's. He walked up to the plate like he was 3-3. Got in a 1-2 count looking stupid like he had all day on breaking balls. And then hammered a game winning HR on a breaking pitch. After the game he said "I might have struck out 3 times and looked like a clown. But I am clutch. I deliver when I have to deliver."

 

Where in life do these kids that never face the odds of baseball learn these lessons our kids have learned and will learn? How much adversity have they faced? How much failure have they had to endure? How hard have they ever had to work for something? How many weeks have they worked and never got a pay check? You know like the kid that works just as hard as every other player sometimes harder but never see's the field. But he has the same great attitude every day in practice regardless of what's going on in class or his life. And shows back up each day ready to go to work.

 

The odds are if a young man learns what it takes to be all he can be at this game we call baseball he is going to smoke the competition in life once the cleats are hung up. Why? Because he knows. He has already done it. He had faced the Beast. He has had the guts to fail and get right back in there and fight for what he wants. Give me a guy who says to hel with the odds I want it and I am willing to face it. Those that measure their passion and desire based on the odds and think they can live a full life never played the game. You might have played. But you really never played.

Originally Posted by ILVBB:

My view on this subject has changed as my son has aged. He graduated from college 3-years ago, played one summer of pro ball and then went on to graduate school.

 

As a parent you never truly look at the odd of success in any one aspect of your son's life. You look at the cumulative growth that experiences bring.

 

Probability of gaining fame and fortune in baseball is slim to none. However, the experiences that one gains at any level can be the foundation for success at some aspect of life.

 

I was reading Rob Kremer's post above. I remember meeting Rob when his son was going through the recruiting phase out of high school. His son and mine are very similar, good kids, smart and hardworking. Were they going to be big time pro baseball stars; no, but they were going to learn through success and failure the lessons that will carry them through life.

 

For all the parents that post here; this thread is not about "probability of success in baseball;" it is about learning lessons that will create a bright future for our country. It is about the lessons learned through competition, success and failure, commitment to your teammates and yourself.

 

My son had a great baseball career in college. Ultimately, everyone's baseball career ends the lessons learned will carry those that care about what the game really means to a productive and successful life.

 

My son received his MBA from the University of Texas this week, he is getting married this spring. Yet what got him is job was not what he did in the classroom it was the ability to tell a good story about his experience playing baseball.

 

The odds of success in life improve for young men that commit to excellence no matter where they choose to compete.

Congrats to your son. My son followed a similar path, very solid college career, got his MBA at his undergrad school and stayed in town, going to work in the banking business. Baseball served him very well, instilling the strong sense of personal responsibility, He understands that if he has a problem he needs to have a chat with the "man in the mirror" his college coach mentioned so often.

 

Two of his college teammates are on MLB 25-man rosters. One was a 3rd round pick and the other picked in the 10th round, junior years. Neither was drafted in high school, but blossomed in college. After a couple of pro seasons, it was obvious that, barring injury, both would at the very least get to MLB.

 

Both are very talented, but neither was a stone cold lock for pro baseball, or recruited by big college programs. After watching both guys since they were drafted, chatting with them on occasion, both were then, and remain hyper-focused on their craft, as most successful professionals of all types are.

 

It is cool turning on the TV to watch them play. I usually turn to my wife and we both say, "Can you believe this?" and I'm not even related. If anyone had predicted they would make it in college, I would have told them they were nuts, but I am sure they believed it. The odds had to be very long, at least to me, but apparently not.

 

MiBL Household Tip #1: Furnish your crib on Craigslist at the start of the season. Sell the stuff on Craigslist in Sept. 

 

MiBL Household Tip #2: Don't sign a long lease.

Last edited by Dad04

Each team has about 5 levels, some 6.  At 25 per roster figure it out.

milb contracts are for 6-7 (not sure which) years, to be broken at anytime. Most guys if not in ML by 4-5 years and not on the 40 and reach a certain age limit,  are out, either by their choosing or the teams.

 

It is not your most stable environment for employment.

 

JMO

Originally Posted by 10-22:

Would be an interesting stat to see what the turnover rate is in milb.

 

10-22,

 

Each year, each each team drafts 40 players and signs most of them, plus they sign about half as many from Latin America.  That's your numerator.

 

TPM's info tells you how many MiLB slots there are.  That's your denominator.

 

Each new player coming into the system who finds a roster spot forces another player out of the system. which means the annual turnover rate is probably somewhere around 40%.

 

The math is relentless against these guys.

 

Originally Posted by 10-22:
10-22   I am not sure of ball players in the minors.  I ran across these figures a while back on the odds of playing up at each level and kept it.  Very simplistic but gives kids an idea of the road ahead.  TwoTex and swampboy have it narrowed down for you though.
I live in the D/FW Texas area and there are ALOT of pros, ex pro and minor league ball players around here.

24'sdad, just a curiosity, how many active players are there in the minors? I live in a small city (<300k) and there seem to be about a dozen former milb guys 30 or under around here. Would be an interesting stat to see what the turnover rate is in milb.

 

Originally Posted by 24'sdad:
Originally Posted by 10-22:
10-22   I am not sure of ball players in the minors.  I ran across these figures a while back on the odds of playing up at each level and kept it.  Very simplistic but gives kids an idea of the road ahead.  TwoTex and swampboy have it narrowed down for you though.
I live in the D/FW Texas area and there are ALOT of pros, ex pro and minor league ball players around here.

24'sdad, just a curiosity, how many active players are there in the minors? I live in a small city (<300k) and there seem to be about a dozen former milb guys 30 or under around here. Would be an interesting stat to see what the turnover rate is in milb.

 

Given that there aren't new minor league teams popping up every year, there should be in the neighborhood of 1500 new unemployed professional baseball players every year, since that's the new number drafted.  Obviously, some of those guys don't sign, some FA do, and there are all the players from areas not eligible for the draft, but that's as good a starting point as any.

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