The One College Baseball Stat You Can't Google

Almost every committed recruit at top fifty programs are 9’s or 10’s. Given there are typically about 14 incoming freshmen and 18-20 players who receive reasonable playing time it’s inevitable 50% of recruits aren’t going to be a fit at their first choice.

What coach wants to share this information? Who wants to track it? You can calculate the stat by doing the research on any program that shows interest or makes an offer.

You seem to be looking for some sort of guarantee that doesn’t exist. It’s important to hear exactly what is being said during recruitment and not twist it into what you want to hear. Then, you have to do your research and go with your instincts.

I’m guessing a lot of college players and son’s of posters on the board fit my son’s mold. He wasn’t recruited to be a freshman, starter stud. Someone else wasn’t getting the job done. Mid season he stepped in and got it done. Had other players met expectations my son’s college baseball experience might have been completely different.

My son was partially lucky (other’s failed providing opportunity) and completely mentally and physically ready when the opportunity arose.

Kid didn't take advantage of his opportunities. Kid did not like the bench and lacked the maturity to deal with it. Kid couldn't handle the course work. Kid got a taste of parties without parental oversight.

@RJM posted:

What coach wants to share this information? Who wants to track it? You can calculate the stat by doing the research on any program that shows interest or makes an offer.

You seem to be looking for some sort of guarantee that doesn’t exist.

I'm not looking for the guarantee. More so, I'm looking for the actual statistical measure that validates what I have been hearing and others have been saying...that there is no guarantee and that the odds are unfavorable.

CollegeBaseballInsights has info on player attrition, both for freshmen and overall, but you can't just google it, you have to subscribe.  CBI has posted some of this kind data on here, e.g.:

https://community.hsbaseballwe...99#65782544860895999

I think, though, that their data is players who were on the roster freshman year but not the next.  Not the ones who were cut/moved out before/after fall of freshman year.  They also list the number of transfers and JUCO transfers, also pretty enlightening.

@Francis7 posted:

Kid was can't miss. PG Grade was 9. Signed a NLI as a HS senior to a P5 legendary baseball program. Class of 2020. And, he's now playing at a Juco.

1. You've been on this board long enough to know the PG ratings mean absolutely nothing.

2. If he's a 2020 this would only be his first semester of college. How is he already playing at a juco?

Perhaps he was advised to go JUCO because 2020 draft was so small. 

Doesnt mean that something necessarily happened.  Maybe it was the plan all along to not play in college, but was using his committment as leverage.  That's what many players do.

And no reason to have such statistics.

I know a kid who was committed to a top 10 type powerHouse as a freshman, got decommited as a JR but committed to a different P5 shortly there after, got decommitted from there and is at a struggling mid major not being a superstar....has nothing to do with talent.

happens every year.

@PABaseball posted:

1. You've been on this board long enough to know the PG ratings mean absolutely nothing.

2. If he's a 2020 this would only be his first semester of college. How is he already playing at a juco?

9/20 = freshman year. Was supposed to go P5. At Juco now instead.

It's an easy statistic to calulate, look at the signing class that made it to campus in the fall and see who is there in the spring.  And again who is there the next year.  Most of the elite programs have the info available.

schools don't brag on how many players fail to make the cut because it would jeopardize the pipeline.  Reality might hurt the dream.

it doesn't matter to most top players because they haven't not been the Man and think they will still be in college.  Failure is too foreign to even consider.  Typically 50% are wrong.  Choose wisely.

@anotherparent posted:

CollegeBaseballInsights has info on player attrition, both for freshmen and overall, but you can't just google it, you have to subscribe.  CBI has posted some of this kind data on here, e.g.:

https://community.hsbaseballwe...99#65782544860895999

I think, though, that their data is players who were on the roster freshman year but not the next.  Not the ones who were cut/moved out before/after fall of freshman year.  They also list the number of transfers and JUCO transfers, also pretty enlightening.

@anotherparent

you are correct.

We view the college baseball fall season similar to MLB spring season, it is not the official roster, thus we've chosen not to capture this information.

In August, we rolled out the following Team Roster Turnover Insight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Nmx6pBgf5k

Just one reminder. There are lots of non-athletes (or NARPs as, I think, I am affectionately called in my family) who transfer after freshman year or even during freshman year. Classes are too hard or too easy, they hate the party scene or lack thereof... too far from home, too close to home, changed majors and the school doesn't have it, roommate sucks, the food is bad, just a bad fit altogether... National college retention rate from freshman to sophomore year is 75-78% (according to the google machine). When you layer on playing a sport you're adding the additional variables of the culture of the team, how you fit in the lineup, coaches, injury, how you developed in the time between your commitment and showing up on campus, how your teammates developed in the time between their commitment and showing up on campus and just how damn hard being a student-athlete is. And since March, COVID.

When making the college decision, you can do all the research in the world, you can even be totally loved coming in. But that doesn't mean it's going to all work out the way you think it is. You can minimize risk but you can't eliminate it.

I agree that a high level of attrition could be a red flag. I think publishing the stat could also be misleading without background information. JMHO

@PTWood posted:

Just one reminder. There are lots of non-athletes (or NARPs as, I think, I am affectionately called in my family) who transfer after freshman year or even during freshman year. Classes are too hard or too easy, they hate the party scene or lack thereof... too far from home, too close to home, changed majors and the school doesn't have it, roommate sucks, the food is bad, just a bad fit altogether... National college retention rate from freshman to sophomore year is 75-78% (according to the google machine). When you layer on playing a sport you're adding the additional variables of the culture of the team, how you fit in the lineup, coaches, injury, how you developed in the time between your commitment and showing up on campus, how your teammates developed in the time between their commitment and showing up on campus and just how damn hard being a student-athlete is. And since March, COVID.

When making the college decision, you can do all the research in the world, you can even be totally loved coming in. But that doesn't mean it's going to all work out the way you think it is. You can minimize risk but you can't eliminate it.

I agree that a high level of attrition could be a red flag. I think publishing the stat could also be misleading without background information. JMHO

I agree with your points,Key performance indicators provide an opening to ask the coach additional questions. Such information can be valuable when comparing schools within a conference.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@anotherparent

you are correct.

We view the college baseball fall season similar to MLB spring season, it is not the official roster, thus we've chosen not to capture this information.

In August, we rolled out the following Team Roster Turnover Insight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Nmx6pBgf5k

Video is missing

@PTWood posted:

National college retention rate from freshman to sophomore year is 75-78% (according to the google machine). When you layer on playing a sport you're adding the additional variables of the culture of the team, how you fit in the lineup, coaches, injury, how you developed in the time between your commitment and showing up on campus, how your teammates developed in the time between their commitment and showing up on campus and just how damn hard being a student-athlete is. And since March, COVID.

Makes the 50% estimate seem reasonable.

At the end of the day, knowing that the number is between 25 and 50% of not sticking, I guess a person's risk tolerance is a big factor? Some may see it as "Go for it and worst case is that I will transfer out" whereas others may think "Finding a fit the first time was a process that I would rather not repeat" (and they would not swing big and aim lower).

Personally, based on what's been shared with respect to the current status of the transfer portal, I would recommend staying away from having to rely on a transfer to keep playing. But, maybe that's just me not understanding everything correctly?

I'm not really sure what you're asking. Nobody goes in thinking - there's a 50% chance I'm out of here in the next two years.

There isn't a risk tolerance or some secondary thought process. Sometimes a kid gets to campus and isn't good enough. Sometimes there is a lingering injury where they never get completely right and it reflects in their performance. Sometimes the player and the coach bump heads. Sometimes new coach(es) are brought in and they need to clean house. Sometimes a player never belonged. Sometimes a kid doesn't make the travel roster and says if I went somewhere else I'd be traveling. Sometimes a kid can't afford the school anymore. Sometimes a scholarship isn't renewed at the same rate.

I've seen a lot transfer because they pulled a muscle or strained something in the fall and got shut down. By the time they were healthy, others had passed them by or they didn't show enough in the short time they were back.

It's not something to worry about until it is

@Francis7 posted:

But, why is it that this number...percentage...the ratio...is not something that is tracked and shared? It seems to be a fairly telling statistic that should be public knowledge.

Is it too hard to track? Or, is it that schools don't want this to be well known? Something else?

You would need commitments, NLI signings, college registrations and official rosters to derive that number. Even then it wouldn't be perfect because of other factors like academic eligibility and injuries. I did the math for a couple of schools that my son was interested in when I was at my most obsessed (much less variability at most D3s).

I think NLI and registration information is private data unless the individual chooses to share it, so I'm not sure this would even be possible on a large scale.

Even with your one example, so many things are unknown:
Did he actually sign an NLI, or just a piece of paper?
Was he counting on getting drafted and Covid ruined his plans?
Maybe a scout convinced him he'd be drafted in 2021 if he went juco?
Maybe his admission was based on improving grades or test scores in senior HS year and he didn't?
Maybe his scholarship was 25% and the family financial situation changed?

I think what @Francis7 was getting at is that if you are OK with change and have a high tolerance for risk, then you might go for your athletic "reach" school even if you know they have high attrition or that you will be in a fight for your life to play. If you have a low tolerance for risk and do not like change, you might chose a "safety" school...much like people do academically. Being able to determine which is which required some honesty, self-reflection and possibly some tough love support from outside.

I think what is really hard (and happens a lot) is when people either think they are at their safety school or at least in their sweet spot and things still don't work out.

@PTWood posted:

I think what @Francis7 was getting at is that if you are OK with change and have a high tolerance for risk, then you might go for your athletic "reach" school even if you know they have high attrition or that you will be in a fight for your life to play. If you have a low tolerance for risk and do not like change, you might chose a "safety" school...much like people do academically. Being able to determine which is which required some honesty, self-reflection and possibly some tough love support from outside.

Bingo!