I will provide a real life example. My son was a 2018 HS grad and PBR ranked him #11 in our state at his position. Of the 10 players ranked ahead of him 2 of them went JuCo. The remaining 8 went to big name 4 year schools (with 1 exception). Two years have gone by and this is what has happened. The 2 that went JuCo were standouts and have advanced to great D1 programs. Of the 8 that went big time out of HS only 3 are still at their original schools - and only 2 have gotten in the field. The other 5 all bounced down to JuCos after 1 year at their dream school - including the top 3 who all had a PG ranking of 9.5 or 10. All 3 were elite prospects and they were not yet good enough to get on the field at Texas A&M, University of Houston, and Texas Tech as freshmen. I say all the time on this board that hardly any 18 year old kids are ready to play at top ranked programs as a freshman. This is true at D1 & D2. Every kid (and parent) thinks they are the one that can do it. After a year they find out they aren’t.
I’ve always felt the PG rating system is grossly inflated. Every good large high school player I’ve known/known of who is/was a top player has been rated a 9 or better. 9 is potential top ten rounds of the draft. While the key word is potential most of these 9’s were not drafted in the top ten rounds. Some of them weren’t drafted. Some didn’t play D1.
“We’re rating them on potential. We miss a lot both ways.”
- Jerry Ford