The one in a million... wait, what's that... its not really one in a million?

There is nothing wrong with high goals. Just realize the chances and be prepared if you cannot meet them. It may be through no fault of your own, that you do not make it. 

You go over the chances, but how many players had the goal to play at college or the MLB and never made it. I do not think that anybody is saying that you should not try or have that as a goal. You should just be aware of your chances. 

It just means you have to work harder than most not only at athletics but also academics. And that really is the hard part. Doing both, without either suffering. 

2020 Dad,  

Thank you could have rounded to 667 for crying out loud!  now you've jinxed all of us!  LOL.

But thank you for doing the rough math.  I've often had the same line of thinking but never broke down the numbers.  Very interesting.   I found a short article on a website on this same topic-  I thought it was pretty good- and aligns with your math:

The Odds Of Playing Professional Baseball

1 of every 100 high school baseball players will go on to play affiliated professional baseball. That means if you are a high school baseball player, you have a 1% chance of playing affiliated professional baseball (which is for one of the Major League Organizations).

This isn't the odds of playing in the Big Leauges, it is for getting to any level of professional baseball. That means playing in the Big Leagues is significantly less than 1%. You can look at this a few ways.

You can assume that out of 5 teams with 20 high school baseball players on each, one player from one of the teams will play professional baseball. So this would probably be like one player out of all your local high schools will go pro. Obviously some areas are filled with more talent and bring more scouts, therefore there may be more of a chance in your area. Other areas may not be so lucky and may be overlooked.

Another way to look at it is to not worry about these numbers. If you think it is impossible, it will be impossible. If you focus on playing hard and getting better everyday, then you have a much better chance of playing professional baseball.

2020dad, you've hit upon a good point. The odds change with each new piece of data. At birth, the odds are very low (2 million boys; 1,000 professional contracts; thus, each kid has 1/20th of 1% chance of signing a professional contract). Get to high school baseball and maybe 100,000 boys in each grade are playing -- thus the odds are now 1% (as indicated above in PaBaseballDad's post).

And depending on where you are, the odds may be much higher -- at 2019Son's school, over the 2015 and 2016 classes (16 baseball players), 9 went or are going D1, at least 2 to D3 . . . so the odds of playing college baseball are over 50%. And with 4 pros (and a 5th who will be drafted out of college this year) over the last 5 years . . . the odds of signing a pro contract might be 10%. On his travel team, about 20% go pro, either directly from high school or after college, so the odds are higher still.

Ultimately none of that matters to a specific individual -- how far he goes will depend on talent and drive -- but seeing others reach lofty heights does make it easier to believe that you can do it, too.

BishopLeftiesDad posted:

There is nothing wrong with high goals. Just realize the chances and be prepared if you cannot meet them. It may be through no fault of your own, that you do not make it. 

You go over the chances, but how many players had the goal to play at college or the MLB and never made it. I do not think that anybody is saying that you should not try or have that as a goal. You should just be aware of your chances. 

It just means you have to work harder than most not only at athletics but also academics. And that really is the hard part. Doing both, without either suffering. 

Mlb?  Lots.  College?  Very few.  Now there will be lots of disagreement on this.  But it depends on how you define things.  If you don't put in a tremendous work effort I think it disqualifies you instantly.  How many realky work that hard and can't play any level of college ball?  

2020dad posted:

Resurrecting that low velocity college pitchers thread rekindled in me this misperception that achieving certain goals athletically is somehow nearly unattainable.   Every year there are roughly 2million males born in this country.  Every year about 3000 males go to division 1 baseball.  Thats 1 in every 666 (sorry for the number but I don't control the math!)  About 1000 sign milb contracts.  Thats 1 in 2000.  Combine the D1 and hs seniors who sign together and you are now about 1 in 600.  I just subbed for a gym class yesterday.  Wow.  It really is a small percentage of the overall population who are at all athletic.  Lets say 20% - not scientific just a guess.  So now that 2million really becomes 400000.  We are already pushing 1 in 100.  Then we can break these numbers down further and further....  fact of the matter is its much more of a dream for a kid to want to be an author or a congressman.   Would you discourage those dreams?  With a heck of a lot of hard work the baseball dream still may not happen.  But the odds are not nearly as long as some want you to think.

You are forgetting foreign players.  That's probably around 30% in the MLB and 50% in the MiLB. Not sure on the DI percentage, probably not significant.  

I read somewhere that D1 foreign players were less than 5%.

http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/probability.htm

These are the benchmark numbers I've always gone back to.   In my personal observations over the years, it is fantastically difficult to see talented college players not get drafted, drafted players languish in the minors waiting for their opportunity, and satisfying to see someone I know (finally) get on an MLB roster.   It takes unbelievable talent, timing, dedication and luck.

But the same can be said for any profession, it takes hard work, dedication and a whole lot of luck.  Having an education, family business, or other plans to fall back on is never a bad thing.  JMO.

I hate to say it but we can't discount the foreign factor in this equation.  Maybe 20% of American boys can be considered athletic but I don't think the DR guys are chilling out playing X-box 3 hours a day.

The players specialized position may be a huge factor as well.  If you were a catcher or a 3rd basemen in the Atlanta Braves pool during the Chipper/McCann era you were out of luck!

I  don't worry too much about mlb odds.  By that point you DO have lots of guys who are very very serious about their goals in the minors who never make it to the mlb.  Thats why I focus more on the college level.  As 2019 pointed out very accurately the more pieces you put in place the better your odds.  I believe our entire 2015 class found some college to play at.  Our 2016 class is well on its way.  So the way I look at it is if he can just continue to be good enough to make the team one more year, one more year etc. His odds will be good.  By classes I mean travel organization of course.  Don't know of many high schools that can literally place everyone!  Oh and caco, I was being nice saying 20%!  I am shocked how bad america has become athletically.  Maybe I have just been around way too many great athletes and I have a skewed opinion.  Maybe also why when I say good or great I get the feeling  my standard for that is much higher than some others.  I have heard before any varsity high school player is at least good.  see now I just can't agree with that. In fact on the average high school team I only see a few good players. It all comes down to how you define good.  It's really important to look at who is ahead of you and try to get to that level. But I think sometimes it's equally important to look at how many are behind you and realize that you can do it, that you're in a good position. confidence is everything.

My son had already committed to his college before I had ever heard of the hsbbweb.  My main reason for joining the hsbbweb was to in fact try and figure out what his odds were and to do whatever it was in my power to help him achieve his goals.  I found there was nothing in my power other than supporting him  

I have seen conference players of the year and college All-Americans go undrafted.  It takes more than stats and awards.  You have to have some scout willing to go to bat for you.  I've seen simple things like lack of hustle and attitude causing kids to go undrafted.  The main thing I learned is until you hear your name called on draft day, you don't really know if you'll be drafted or not.  Obviously, some kids do because every organization in baseball tells them they will.  Unless you are one of those guys, my best advice is play like there is no tomorrow.  Don't even be afraid to dive for a ball in practice.  Be the first one to practice and the last to leave.  Love the game with all your heart and let the drafting chips fall where they may.  Having fun and doing everything in your power to help your team win is way more important than worrying about getting drafted.  Winning is always noticed. 

As PG mentioned in the past the odds aren't the same for everyone. Each athlete has to weigh his odds. The 5'9", 80 mph throwing high school pitcher from two short, unathletic parents does not have the same odds as a 6'2", 90 mph throwing high school pitcher who's dad is a former pro and mother was a college athlete.

I saw the odds differently just with my two kids. But they both played college baseball and softball. I saw my daughter (the oldest) as a potential high school softball player. She became competitive and intense in high school. From the time my son was little I knew he could go as far as his motivation takes him. He had the intensity and competitiveness from day one. Keep in mind I played college ball and was a very, very marginal pro prospect.

ClevelandDad posted:

My son had already committed to his college before I had ever heard of the hsbbweb.  My main reason for joining the hsbbweb was to in fact try and figure out what his odds were and to do whatever it was in my power to help him achieve his goals.  I found there was nothing in my power other than supporting him  

I have seen conference players of the year and college All-Americans go undrafted.  It takes more than stats and awards.  You have to have some scout willing to go to bat for you.  I've seen simple things like lack of hustle and attitude causing kids to go undrafted.  The main thing I learned is until you hear your name called on draft day, you don't really know if you'll be drafted or not.  Obviously, some kids do because every organization in baseball tells them they will.  Unless you are one of those guys, my best advice is play like there is no tomorrow.  Don't even be afraid to dive for a ball in practice.  Be the first one to practice and the last to leave.  Love the game with all your heart and let the drafting chips fall where they may.  Having fun and doing everything in your power to help your team win is way more important than worrying about getting drafted.  Winning is always noticed. 

Good points CD!

One thing that I noticed, no one has figured out what percentage luck plays into the equation. 

To be honest, I wouldn't really worry about it, chances are your sons will go onto play ball in college.

"I have seen conference players of the year and college All-Americans go undrafted.  It takes more than stats and awards.  You have to have some scout willing to go to bat for you."

Also Very true- You never know who is watching and when. Some decisions are made without seeing an inning.

Great takeaway, 2 in particular liked son's pre-game attitude and effort 3 years ago;            and have gone out of their way with advice and help since then. Heard several stories like this. 

Also great advice- everyone likes a winner at any level.

Catcherdad's son is the same guy that Kyle Boddy @ Driveline raves about.

He never gave up!! Talk about the odds not being in your favor, this guy probably doesn't know about that stuff!

Check out his bio, former Clemson catcher Alex Burg!

TPM posted:

Catcherdad's son is the same guy that Kyle Boddy @ Driveline raves about.

He never gave up!! Talk about the odds not being in your favor, this guy probably doesn't know about that stuff!

Check out his bio, former Clemson catcher Alex Burg!

Oops, my bad. I always get messed up with two guys that I know! Catcherdad's is Burns dad!

https://youtu.be/uYX-NSZMqt0

this site here says a HS Player has about an 11% Chance to Play any Level of college ball

http://www.scholarshipstats.com/baseball.html

that is about 1 in 10 which is not all that low. of course that also includes dII, dIII (not sure about juco) but this means once you are in HS you just Need to be one of the best 2 Players of your Team on an average HS team. that is not easy to do but not impossible.

Still that means you have to be quite good of course, even making a HS Team probably means you are in the top 20% of all youth Players.

Dominik85 posted:

this site here says a HS Player has about an 11% Chance to Play any Level of college ball

http://www.scholarshipstats.com/baseball.html

that is about 1 in 10 which is not all that low. of course that also includes dII, dIII (not sure about juco) but this means once you are in HS you just Need to be one of the best 2 Players of your Team on an average HS team. that is not easy to do but not impossible.

Still that means you have to be quite good of course, even making a HS Team probably means you are in the top 20% of all youth Players.

Some HS teams are blessed, some are not.  My son's HS team was just picked, he's in 8th grade and was VERY curious to look up who made it.  Even the JV team is filled with the who's who of summer teams according to PG, and Varsity...gesh, D1, Ivy, Military Academy...etc.  He's going to have a tough time.