The Pressure to Commit

1). Most people think they'll be the exception to the rule

2) subconsciously, the kid might not care about playing time.  His goal was the D1 commitment.  He focused on that.  He achieved his goal.

Did he receive any scholarship money. 

Based on the info you gave, I can’t imagine  the school even recruiting him, much less giving any money. If they gave him money, then either they see the potential in him, or they are just wasting thier money if they are giving money away, with no real intent that he will stay or be successful there. 

ILVBB,

Been there.   At the end of the day, you are offering realistic, experienced counsel to the parent and the player.  You've been through it with your sons and probably helped countless people on HSBBWeb.    One of my favorite sayings in my professional life is that "Facts are stubborn things -- John Adams".   Some people are just oblivious to the obvious.

This is the good ol' USA and people are free to do and raise their kids as they wish.   As my parents used to tell me, "you don't get to choose your parents".   Not to worry, their regret will come later.

PS...I didn't realize what great parents I had until I was about 25 years old.   I'm guessing the opposite is also possible.. realize how a terrible some parents are at 25 years old.

Chive on!

We had a kid who went down the same road in our high school. It was especially frustrating because the family offered us a lot of advice on how to be successful in recruiting when it was clear they had no idea what they were doing.

I take a somewhat malicious pleasure now that the boys are sophomores in hearing all the "reasons" why their son left the out of state D1  that had "recruited" him after one semester, and is no longer playing baseball at all.

But then I'm not a very nice person.

  I have said before that rankings don’t mean a whole lot, but for the sake of making a point I’m going to use rankings as a point of reference. A few days ago I did some research to see what happened to the 10 players, during their freshman year, that PBR had ranked ahead of my son (at his position) in class of 2018 in our state. Two went JuCo (as did my son) and all 3 had fantastic years. One of them got drafted. One otherplayer was a solid contributor to a D1 mid major. None of the other 7 players even saw the field. Six of the 7 went to high profile D1 programs in great conferences (SEC, Big12, AAC, etc.). Three (or 4) of those 6 are no longer part of the program at the school they committed to and made a big announcement about on social media. They have been farmed out to Junior Colleges. 

  You may be wondering if this is unusual. It is not. It happens every year. Especially to position players. It is very, very hard for an 18 yr old to take playing time away from a 22 yr old. Yet almost every 18 yr old thinks he will be the one guy that can do it. And if that’s not bad enough his parents think that too!  So many people just refuse to take a reality check before making a college commitment. And because they don’t, they get their reality check a year later as they exit their dream program after wasting a year. 

Being new to this process I acknowledge up front that I don't know what I don't know so keep that in mind when I ask this question:

Why should a recruited player expect to play as a Freshman and why do they seem to leave in large numbers when they don't get playing time as a Freshman?  Why would being on the team, practice,  workouts, etc... be called "wasting a year"?

Are these kids being told in the process that they will play right away?  Are they being lied to in mass numbers?  Or, are their expectations just out whack and they take their ball and go home when they don't get what they want as a Freshman?

It is not a matter of playing as a freshman; it is about understanding the environment you are stepping into.

If not a single freshman over the past 7-years has not made it to the senior year; why one expect it to be different. The commitment is a badge of honor which many believe is a validation of him as a person and ballplayer.

I have no idea what coaches said or did; but this young man was so eager to commit to a D1 school that in my opinion he ignored the reason you go to college.

In my opinion, college is about the education, both in and out of the classroom. It is about the friends you make, the success and failure. It is about showing up on campus as a young impressionable 18-year old and hopefully graduating in 4/5 years later wiser and ready to be a productive part of our society.

There is nothing wrong with the school that this young man committed to. However, I don’t see this 18-year old finding joy and success going to a program (school and baseball) geared to JC transfers. His life is baseball, when he shows up, lives in a freshman dorm without any of his teammates because most are Jr or Sr JC transfers, I suspect he will not be a happy camper.

He is a year away from attending, he has been on only a couple of college campuses, he has no idea what he wants to study, he has no vision of what is life will be like at this school, but he is ready to commit to this university which will make him a D1 committed ball player.

The social pressure which kids and parents are buying into is just plain nuts!

“The social pressure which kids and parents are buying into is just plain nuts!”

More true words have never been spoken. 

I will add that the amount of money and time spent on Showcase events is also nuts. Players would be far better off dedicating most of that money to good instruction and good training. 

ILVBB posted:

It is not a matter of playing as a freshman; it is about understanding the environment you are stepping into.

If not a single freshman over the past 7-years has not made it to the senior year; why one expect it to be different. The commitment is a badge of honor which many believe is a validation of him as a person and ballplayer.

I have no idea what coaches said or did; but this young man was so eager to commit to a D1 school that in my opinion he ignored the reason you go to college.

In my opinion, college is about the education, both in and out of the classroom. It is about the friends you make, the success and failure. It is about showing up on campus as a young impressionable 18-year old and hopefully graduating in 4/5 years later wiser and ready to be a productive part of our society.

There is nothing wrong with the school that this young man committed to. However, I don’t see this 18-year old finding joy and success going to a program (school and baseball) geared to JC transfers. His life is baseball, when he shows up, lives in a freshman dorm without any of his teammates because most are Jr or Sr JC transfers, I suspect he will not be a happy camper.

He is a year away from attending, he has been on only a couple of college campuses, he has no idea what he wants to study, he has no vision of what is life will be like at this school, but he is ready to commit to this university which will make him a D1 committed ball player.

The social pressure which kids and parents are buying into is just plain nuts!

 

Sorry for the confusion, my reply was to the couple of post directly above mine where kids had seemingly left a program because they "didn't see the field their Freshman season".  I should have quoted those post in my reply for sale of clarity.  

22and25 posted:

Being new to this process I acknowledge up front that I don't know what I don't know so keep that in mind when I ask this question:

 

Why should a recruited player expect to play as a Freshman and why do they seem to leave in large numbers when they don't get playing time as a Freshman?  Why would being on the team, practice,  workouts, etc... be called "wasting a year"?

 

Are these kids being told in the process that they will play right away?  Are they being lied to in mass numbers?  Or, are their expectations just out whack and they take their ball and go home when they don't get what they want as a Freshman?

 

 

From competitive mid majors up through major conference entering players believe they are potential pro prospects to some degree. Even if a freshman doesn’t get a lot of playing time he has to be aware of his surroundings. He has to assess the attention he’s getting from the coaching staff. He has to be able to assess his prospects for soph year or it’s time to transfer. There are 35 players (or more before roster cuts) who have the ability to play. Only 18-20 are going to earn playing time. 

The same thing plays out at lower levels of college ball. The difference is players at lower levels are more likely to walk away from the game than transfer. 

RJM posted:

22and25 posted:

Being new to this process I acknowledge up front that I don't know what I don't know so keep that in mind when I ask this question:

 

Why should a recruited player expect to play as a Freshman and why do they seem to leave in large numbers when they don't get playing time as a Freshman?  Why would being on the team, practice,  workouts, etc... be called "wasting a year"?

 

Are these kids being told in the process that they will play right away?  Are they being lied to in mass numbers?  Or, are their expectations just out whack and they take their ball and go home when they don't get what they want as a Freshman?

 

 

From competitive mid majors up through major conference entering players believe they are potential pro prospects to some degree. Even if a freshman doesn’t get a lot of playing time he has to be aware of his surroundings. He has to assess the attention he’s getting from the coaching staff. He has to be able to assess his prospects for soph year or it’s time to transfer. There are 35 players (or more before roster cuts) who have the ability to play. Only 18-20 are going to earn playing time. 

The same thing plays out at lower levels of college ball. The difference is players at lower levels are more likely to walk away from the game than transfer. 

I understand that everyone coming in thinks they are a pro prospect.  Realistically, how many kids from even the top Power 5 schools get drafted every year, 4 or 5?  

If you can't compete for a spot in the top 18 of 35 where maybe only 5 of those 18 actually get drafted, were you really an MLB prospect?  

Why would you be better off transferring than fighting for a spot where you are?  If you can't compete where there are a handful of actual pro prospect how does tranfering somewhere else help prove you are a pro prospect?  Or, are they just transferring to someplace to play out their remaining eligibility having realized they won't be going to the MLB?

I might have posted this before, but we use a simple matrix to (hopefully) help with this problem. The graph has nine boxes - three rows and three columns. Horizontal row is academics: safety, fit, stretch. Columns are baseball: again, safety, fit and stretch. 

Safety: In baseball terms, 'safety' means they want you and you have the ability to contribute right away. In academic terms, you know you can get in and handle the coursework.

Fit: In baseball terms, it means they want you and you have the ability to get on the field at some point. In academic terms, you will likely get in and the work will be challenging but not overwhelming.

Stretch: For baseball, a school that commits kids who are just better than you. Difficult to get a spot, might not come with $$, hard to see reaching the field much, if at all, without significant improvement. In academics, a stretch is a grinder school that you absolutely would not get into w/o baseball, and whose workload will be a challenge to manage. 

Populate the boxes with schools your son (or family) are interested in for other reasons (location, weather, etc). To give you an idea of how it works - right now Stanford is both a stretch for both baseball and academics for my '22. A school like MIT would be 'safety' for baseball and a stretch for academics. You update the position of the schools over time as your son develops or has setbacks on the field or the classroom (and, of course, based on interest from programs).

In the end the objective is to pick a school in the center square - a 'fit' for both baseball and academics. If quadrants of the matrix aren't populated at all, you do some homework and figure out what schools you might have missed and ought to consider. 

This has brought a bit of discipline to our process and ensures that we consider both best-case and worst-case scenarios. While people have told us that our '22 is likely a D1 player, he's gonna have HA D3s on his chart for at least a little while. He's bought into this and works to move the stretch schools into his center square. 

22and25 posted:

RJM posted:

22and25 posted:

Being new to this process I acknowledge up front that I don't know what I don't know so keep that in mind when I ask this question:

 

Why should a recruited player expect to play as a Freshman and why do they seem to leave in large numbers when they don't get playing time as a Freshman?  Why would being on the team, practice,  workouts, etc... be called "wasting a year"?

 

Are these kids being told in the process that they will play right away?  Are they being lied to in mass numbers?  Or, are their expectations just out whack and they take their ball and go home when they don't get what they want as a Freshman?

 

 

From competitive mid majors up through major conference entering players believe they are potential pro prospects to some degree. Even if a freshman doesn’t get a lot of playing time he has to be aware of his surroundings. He has to assess the attention he’s getting from the coaching staff. He has to be able to assess his prospects for soph year or it’s time to transfer. There are 35 players (or more before roster cuts) who have the ability to play. Only 18-20 are going to earn playing time. 

The same thing plays out at lower levels of college ball. The difference is players at lower levels are more likely to walk away from the game than transfer. 

I understand that everyone coming in thinks they are a pro prospect.  Realistically, how many kids from even the top Power 5 schools get drafted every year, 4 or 5?  

If you can't compete for a spot in the top 18 of 35 where maybe only 5 of those 18 actually get drafted, were you really an MLB prospect?  

Why would you be better off transferring than fighting for a spot where you are?  If you can't compete where there are a handful of actual pro prospect how does tranfering somewhere else help prove you are a pro prospect?  Or, are they just transferring to someplace to play out their remaining eligibility having realized they won't be going to the MLB?

 

If a player was dominant in high school and successful competing in national level travel tournaments how does he know he’s not going further than college ball until he gets there? 

The following was my view when I played and my son expressed the same ... Thirty-five, possibly a few more with over recruiting show up for fall ball. Five to eight of them are sure shot, starter studs. With 18-20 players receiving contributor level playing time in the field or on the mound there are 25-30 players cable of filling the remaining spots after the studs.

It stops being about physical ability. What now separates those who make it versus those who don’t is mental toughness. Given this may be the first time in their lives these players have to compete to prove themselves some don’t even realize how much mental toughness they don’t have. They don’t know how to stay physically and mentally prepared. They start to bitch and complain. They don’t grasp being ready for the pinch hitting, pinch running, defensive replacement, facing one hitter on the mound opportunities that can turn into a second opportunity and an opportunity to build on your opportunities. 

Most incoming college players don’t get this. They’ve always been studs. The expect to continue to be studs. It takes some of this arrogance/confidence to succeed in college ball. But without mental toughness for many it just becomes unfocused ambition. 

Why transfer? Sometimes it’s just a numbers game. Everyone is talented. Some players get less opportunity than others. A school that made a previous offer may still be interested. Also, many players transfer down a notch in competitiveness at the D1 level. There are plenty of cases of a player not getting a shot, or failing at a ranked program transferring and becoming a a draftable prospect at a mid major. There was a poster here a few years ago whose son transferred from D1 to D2, got drafted and spent a few years bouncing between AAA and the majors. 

You can’t be discovered sitting on the bench. Some players transfer knowing they re unlikely to play pro ball. But they still want to have a quality college baseball experience.

Because when you talk major D1 programs, all of the scholarship guys were the guy in their high school and on their travel ball teams.  They have never had to work to be the man, they just were the man.  That is my biggest fear about mine.  He has always been the man no matter who he has played for and where he has played.  Now he has to be the man against men.   He has to earn playing time at 5'11" against LHP's that are 6'5" and throw 98.   He has to earn playing time at the plate against men who have lifted college weights for 4 years to be on the field.  But I think I and he have a realistic view that it will take a lot of work for him to get to hit.  It will take him hitting spots with all four/five pitches to earn mound time.  If not, he might be a casualty.  But understand all 18 of the freshmen coming in think they will be the guy at this P5 school.

Every word in this thread has me thinking that for a vast majority of athletes, taking a gap year after high school to get bigger stronger faster, or going JUCO (or both!) would be a wise move...

I guess since they went the D1 to D3 route for their older kid, they have experience what to do. It may be delusional but what if the kid really wants to go to the state U D1 and take a chance in breaking the mold? How old is player? Did he miss two years of HS ball? I am surprised D1 state U would commit with those metrics

3and2Fastball posted:

Every word in this thread has me thinking that for a vast majority of athletes, taking a gap year after high school to get bigger stronger faster, or going JUCO (or both!) would be a wise move...

Couldn't agree with you more...but don't forget smarter and more mature...

3and2Fastball posted:

Every word in this thread has me thinking that for a vast majority of athletes, taking a gap year after high school to get bigger stronger faster, or going JUCO (or both!) would be a wise move...

Agree, and here is another reason why that some don’t seem to understand. This isn’t true everywhere, but at the most competitive programs here is the reality. Schools recruit players  based on the belief and the expectation that they will contribute immediately. If it turns out that they can’t, for whatever reason, they are often sent packing. Ranked programs aren’t giving players time to develop. If a player cant help them win today he will be replaced - one way or another. So when a player tweets out “I’m beyond blessed to announce that I’m continuing my baseball and academic career at Oklahoma State University”, he better be good enough to play there RIGHT NOW. 

I have some strong thoughts on this topic, and I recognize that they are just my thoughts.  I can only share our experience and what we learned from it.

My son (2019)had received contact from recruiting coaches from schools in the ACC, SEC, and Big10 in the summer between his freshman and sophomore year.   As a 15u RHP, 6'2" 160lbs and touching 86.

A knee injury limited him from participation for all of his sophomore year and all but 6 innings of that summer season. My son will tell you that despite my wife and I's best efforts, he would have made a bad choice at 15 or 16 if he was healthy.    He felt that pressure as a sophomore, he knew the timeline for recruiting RHPs at P5 programs, and watched as schools previously interested in him recruited his friends and ignored him (rightly so, given the uncertain status of his knee). 

But this gave him an opportunity to heal and visit a lot of schools, do quite a few camps, talk to coaches, players, and even academic advisors at schools where he had interest. 

By the time summer season between junior and senior year came he was 6'4" 195. He was sitting 91-93 and touched 96 a couple of times.   He was contacted by recruiting coaches from the east coast to the west coast in all major conferences.  A school that he fell in love with (when he did their camp, talked with coaches, met players, toured the facilities and talked to academic advisors) came to see him and made an offer, he accepted it immediately. 

Retrospectively, my son will tell you that no one should be allowed to commit verbally, unofficially, whatever you want to call it until after the start of  junior year and after they have visited the school, talked to coaches, players, academic advisors, seen the facilities, but especially talked finances.  Doesn't matter if it is D1, D2, D3, NAIA, or JUCO.  Yeah, my 18 year old son will tell you that...my 15 or 16 year old son with all the pressure, he didn't have a clue.

Pedaldad posted:. 

By the time summer season between junior and senior year came he was 6'4" 195. He was sitting 91-93 and touched 96 a couple of times.   He was contacted by recruiting coaches from the east coast to the west coast in all major conferences.  A school that he fell in love with (when he did their camp, talked with coaches, met players, toured the facilities and talked to academic advisors) came to see him and made an offer, he accepted it immediately. 

Simply not possible.  I'm kidding, but many around here will tell you that all D1's are done with their commitments long before then...

@ILVBB  My son is in talks with a few schools and I'm curious how you figured out the roster churn?

I've done something like this but only for one player on 2 of the teams. It involved going to PF and see the player that 5 years ago and then checking the teams roster for his name each year and reading the bio to see what kind of playing time he got.

Is this kind of what you did? Or is there a better site for tracking this sort of thing?

Simple, I create a spreadsheet with the years across the top. Then down the side I will put the freshman by year. Say you look back six years; start with the 2014 freshman, put them in the 2014 column. 

Then I pull up the 2015 roster and put them below the 2014 freshman in the next column (the 2015 column).  As I have the 2015 roster open, I put a check mark in the 2015 column if the 2014 freshman are still on the roster (as sophomores), if not I write the word NO. 

Then I repeat the same process for 2016, list the freshman, then put a check next to the 2014 freshman (now juniors) if they are still on the roster in 2016, the do the same for the 2015 freshman (now sophomores). Repeat the process through the current year.

Once I build the table going back 4-5 years I then find out how much each player players each year by looking at the stats. The stats usually give the number of games played, started and for pitchers the number of innings.

This will take about 20 minutes once you are organized. It will give you a real picture as to the “success and failure” of recruiting and what a player might expect if they choose a given school.

ILVBB posted:

Simple, I create a spreadsheet with the years across the top. Then down the side I will put the freshman by year. Say you look back six years; start with the 2014 freshman, put them in the 2014 column. 

 

What a GREAT exercise.  Ty for the idea.  Not only is this good to see what % of kids stick with the team for 4 years it also gives you a great sense for size of each recruiting class and what the coaches do with transfers.  Awesome.  I feel great about one school my son is considering, now checking a second!

Son's advisor gave him a formula that he has found to be somewhat accurate over the years:

The percentage of scholarship you are offered sugguests your "perceived" value to the coaches and likely chances (in percentage) of you seeing the field as a Freshman. 

Once on the field the "actual value" you provide "usually" influences your future playing time, as well as, length of stay!

Scott Munroe posted:

Son's advisor gave him a formula that he has found to be somewhat accurate over the years:

The percentage of scholarship you are offered sugguests your "perceived" value to the coaches and likely chances (in percentage) of you seeing the field as a Freshman. 

Once on the field the "actual value" you provide "usually" influences your future playing time, as well as, length of stay!

 

 

Well stated!  Agree 100%.  That’s why it’s a baseball mistake to turn down a scholarship at school A to go walk-on at school B. Doesn’t matter if it’s a “preferred” walk-on roster spot or not, it’s still a baseball mistake. It may not be a bad academic decision, but it’s a bad baseball decision. It’s as simple as this, one school is saying they want you & the other school is saying they don’t care one way or the other. 

3and2Fastball posted:

Pedaldad posted:. 

By the time summer season between junior and senior year came he was 6'4" 195. He was sitting 91-93 and touched 96 a couple of times.   He was contacted by recruiting coaches from the east coast to the west coast in all major conferences.  A school that he fell in love with (when he did their camp, talked with coaches, met players, toured the facilities and talked to academic advisors) came to see him and made an offer, he accepted it immediately. 

Simply not possible.  I'm kidding, but many around here will tell you that all D1's are done with their commitments long before then...

My 2018 committed to a P5 program in September of his senior year. Everything is possible. Some things are unlikely.

RJM posted:

22and25 posted:

RJM posted:

22and25 posted:

Being new to this process I acknowledge up front that I don't know what I don't know so keep that in mind when I ask this question:

 

Why should a recruited player expect to play as a Freshman and why do they seem to leave in large numbers when they don't get playing time as a Freshman?  Why would being on the team, practice,  workouts, etc... be called "wasting a year"?

 

Are these kids being told in the process that they will play right away?  Are they being lied to in mass numbers?  Or, are their expectations just out whack and they take their ball and go home when they don't get what they want as a Freshman?

 

 

From competitive mid majors up through major conference entering players believe they are potential pro prospects to some degree. Even if a freshman doesn’t get a lot of playing time he has to be aware of his surroundings. He has to assess the attention he’s getting from the coaching staff. He has to be able to assess his prospects for soph year or it’s time to transfer. There are 35 players (or more before roster cuts) who have the ability to play. Only 18-20 are going to earn playing time. 

The same thing plays out at lower levels of college ball. The difference is players at lower levels are more likely to walk away from the game than transfer. 

I understand that everyone coming in thinks they are a pro prospect.  Realistically, how many kids from even the top Power 5 schools get drafted every year, 4 or 5?  

If you can't compete for a spot in the top 18 of 35 where maybe only 5 of those 18 actually get drafted, were you really an MLB prospect?  

Why would you be better off transferring than fighting for a spot where you are?  If you can't compete where there are a handful of actual pro prospect how does tranfering somewhere else help prove you are a pro prospect?  Or, are they just transferring to someplace to play out their remaining eligibility having realized they won't be going to the MLB?

 

 

It stops being about physical ability. What now separates those who make it versus those who don’t is mental toughness. Given this may be the first time in their lives these players have to compete to prove themselves some don’t even realize how much mental toughness they don’t have. They don’t know how to stay physically and mentally prepared. They start to bitch and complain. They don’t grasp being ready for the pinch hitting, pinch running, defensive replacement, facing one hitter on the mound opportunities that can turn into a second opportunity and an opportunity to build on your opportunities. 

Most incoming college players don’t get this. They’ve always been studs. The expect to continue to be studs. It takes some of this arrogance/confidence to succeed in college ball. But without mental toughness for many it just becomes unfocused ambition. 

 

I agree with this and I would include willingness to work and that old chestnut, coachability, comes back into play. Some of the studs who come in also have never had to work really hard. They had talent and they've done well with that talent. I worried about it with my son, but since getting to college I've learned that he is both mentally tough, and willing to work his fanny off on whatever the coaches think will make him better. That has earned him opportunities. Talent and mental toughness allowed him to capitalize on those opportunities.

ILVBB posted:

Simple, I create a spreadsheet with the years across the top. Then down the side I will put the freshman by year. Say you look back six years; start with the 2014 freshman, put them in the 2014 column. 

Then I pull up the 2015 roster and put them below the 2014 freshman in the next column (the 2015 column).  As I have the 2015 roster open, I put a check mark in the 2015 column if the 2014 freshman are still on the roster (as sophomores), if not I write the word NO. 

Then I repeat the same process for 2016, list the freshman, then put a check next to the 2014 freshman (now juniors) if they are still on the roster in 2016, the do the same for the 2015 freshman (now sophomores). Repeat the process through the current year.

Once I build the table going back 4-5 years I then find out how much each player players each year by looking at the stats. The stats usually give the number of games played, started and for pitchers the number of innings.

This will take about 20 minutes once you are organized. It will give you a real picture as to the “success and failure” of recruiting and what a player might expect if they choose a given school.

Great idea doing this asap 

3and2Fastball posted:

Every word in this thread has me thinking that for a vast majority of athletes, taking a gap year after high school to get bigger stronger faster, or going JUCO (or both!) would be a wise move...

There was a time before big television contracts and college sports not being a next man up meat grinder. College freshmen were not allowed to participate in varsity sports. Freshman year was for academic and physical acclimation to college. There was a JV team with local travel. 

So, I've given this thread a lot of thought.   Every kid on my son's travel team went on to play D1 baseball.  Seven players went on to play P5 D1 baseball.  The rest played D1 mid-major college baseball.  There was tremendous pressure on my son and son's teammates to commit to a D1 P5 school.   I saw it and felt it.   My son felt it at first when the P5 guys were committing sophomore year, but I think he just started ignoring the pressure after the last guy committed early junior year.   Possibly this was the realization he was not an ACC or SEC athletic scholarship guy although he was offered academic money from two schools in each conference.    I believe that once the "P5 ship sailed", a lot of this peer and self imposed pressure to commit was gone.   I'm not sure if you want to call it maturity or self realization, but he was much more comfortable talking to coaches about exactly what he wanted out of college and college baseball.    He told my wife and I that his focus was academic and that college baseball was a bonus....he didn't care where he played as long as he played.   This was not something my wife and I anticipated when we started this journey with him.   He came out of that "pressure to commit" with a different perspective.  He was now focused on HA schools which brought on different pressures...pressures he was able to handle well.

Incidently, The only player still playing baseball today (professionally) from a 2014 college grad class was the last D1 mid-major player that committed from his travel team.  My son was the second to last player to commit, and he played all 4 years (injured junior year) in college.   Only one P5 player (non-starter) from that travel team was playing his college junior & senior year.   

Just my experiences.....

The thing one has to really understand is that there is a very real  hierchy when it comes to D1 Baseball.  Just as an example, the SEC is a different world from the Summit League.  

Generally, before the Summit League teams can finish their commitments, they have to wait until all the Power Fives are finished, and all the Mid Majors are done...

Purdue Fort Wayne ( Summit League) hired Doug Schreiber, the former Purdue coach in July.  They just hired their new recruiting coordinator yesterday.  There is no way they are done with their 2020 class.  Far from it.  They went 7-45 last year.  They have to wait for all the various chips to fall from schools perceived above them before they can commit players.

Morehead State (mid major, OVC) just hired Mik Aoki a month ago.  Aoki had been Notre Dame's HC through the 2019 season.  Morehead State has a tough time recruiting pitchers, with their 290 foot fence in right field.  

The more you get into looking at things, the more you see how many moving parts there are in College Baseball.

ILVBB posted:

Simple, I create a spreadsheet with the years across the top. Then down the side I will put the freshman by year. Say you look back six years; start with the 2014 freshman, put them in the 2014 column. 

Then I pull up the 2015 roster and put them below the 2014 freshman in the next column (the 2015 column).  As I have the 2015 roster open, I put a check mark in the 2015 column if the 2014 freshman are still on the roster (as sophomores), if not I write the word NO. 

Then I repeat the same process for 2016, list the freshman, then put a check next to the 2014 freshman (now juniors) if they are still on the roster in 2016, the do the same for the 2015 freshman (now sophomores). Repeat the process through the current year.

Once I build the table going back 4-5 years I then find out how much each player players each year by looking at the stats. The stats usually give the number of games played, started and for pitchers the number of innings.

This will take about 20 minutes once you are organized. It will give you a real picture as to the “success and failure” of recruiting and what a player might expect if they choose a given school.

This is great - we did a similar assessment but not as structured. In some cases, we found drop off at the upperclassman level due to coach change and cultural shift in programs so a bit further digging was required to get the full picture.

Aoki is a shining example mediocrity can be rewarded with a big paycheck. The guy has a horrible career in conference won-loss record (only twice barely above .500). He’s kept near .500 career overall defeating non conference cream puffs.