The Proper College Playing Level

Larry Bird was the last player I can think of who went to a school below his proper level.

Son's teammate had more than a few D1 offers, not P5 but some very good mid majors. Went to a HA D3.

@Smitty28 posted:

Larry Bird was the last player I can think of who went to a school below his proper level.

Larry Bird started at Indiana University with Bobby Knight. He transferred out shortly after he arrived

A great pitcher my son played with did this.  Stepped down from D2 to D3 and is a D1-level guy and, in my opinion, always was.  Got a great education at Babson and will have a great Masters from Northeastern.  He prob would play 4 more years and get a PHD if allowed!

1st year Freshman year - SNHU DII

2nd thru 4th year - Sophomore thru Senior - Babson DIII

5th & soon 6th year - Graduate years 1 & 2 - Northeastern D1

This past summer, cape league to a .49 ERA

Probably happens more than we know.

Happy 20th bday to my son today, too - no more teenagers in my home (or baseball players......)

I talked to several HA D3 freshman parents last weekend. A lot of them had D1 (not P5) offers and chose to go HA D3.

TBH, I'm not sure that is a good comparison though. Those kids are choosing academics over baseball. If you take the HA part out of the equation I imagine the results would be a little different.

There are typically a couple or a few D3 players drafted every year.  NAIA too.  I guess you could say they played too low, or maybe they were late developers, or maybe they cared about academics more than athletics.

@Smitty28 posted:

Larry Bird was the last player I can think of who went to a school below his proper level.

Bird started at Indiana. He left after a few weeks. He was intimidated feeling all the kids were rich. It was relative to how poor he was. He was also homesick.

I know kids who chose competitive HA D3’s over academically mediocre mid majors for academic reasons. They knew college baseball was going to be the last stop.

One was drafted and two signed as free agents. The two pitchers were at 92+ senior year. The catcher hit over .400 his last two years and had a cannon for an arm. The kid drafted in the 20’s made it to AAA. The UDFA’s were released after two years. They were late sign roster filler.

I think prepandemic midmajors talent are now becoming D3 talent due to new transfer rules.

@2022NYC posted:

I think prepandemic midmajors talent are now becoming D3 talent due to new transfer rules.

Mid Major is too broad of a term for baseball, it applies more to basketball and football where there are the P5 schools and everyone else. Mid Major in baseball can mean East Carolina or Iona. Two completely different worlds.

I think the talent you typically may have seen go to Patriot League and American East schools will end up at D3s. Those fringe D1 players. But jucos and competitive D2s are where you'll see the guys who could have been playing at competitive D1 programs end up.

@2022NYC posted:

I think prepandemic midmajors talent are now becoming D3 talent due to new transfer rules.

In a few weeks 2023 rosters will be out. So one can see who transferred where.

I tend to agree with PABaseball, lots of differences between D1 programs.  Geographics usually determines that.

JMO

I think you see it prevalently now.  Guys transferring from mid majors to P5.  I could start naming but maybe most well known was Sonny D

@PitchingFan posted:

I think you see it prevalently now.  Guys transferring from mid majors to P5.  I could start naming but maybe most well known was Sonny D

Agree PF.

It's an opportunity that D1 players never had but it really is all about positioning yourself for a better draft opportunity.

Go for it!

It happens. Most or all of the D3 All Americans could be playing D2 and some of them could be playing D1

In my son's class of 7 recruits, 3 could have played at P5 schools - and each turned down scholarship offers to those schools. One is now playing MLB, one made it to AAA, and my son was drafted out of HS and again as a bargain senior.

All 3 chose a HA D1.

Each knowingly gave up a chance to play in the CWS. That was all the baseball they gave up; in return, the two who have entered the real world post-proball (the third is still playing) have nice upwardly mobile jobs.  Each graduated - 2 on time, the other - because he signed - took one more semester.

Apart from the CWS, a player gives up no professional baseball chances by choosing any particular school, in any league, in any division, JUCO, or NAIA. Every player displaying a single MLB tool will be found - an entire industry is designed to find those players.

There is no professional baseball reason or advantage conferred for choosing a particular school.

I have a HS age son. We take him to see college games of all levels when we can. He's a position player and has now faced Juco arms for four games. He's commented that he has concerns about playing at the right level. His concerns about too low a level are that he could lose some interest in the game if not challenged adequately and that he might be limiting his potential for growth. There is a great variety of pitching at the Juco level. If I were to ask him which team he enjoyed playing against the most, he'd say without a doubt, the one that had the best arms.

RJM and Goosegg both make great points.  College baseball will be the end for most and if a player desires to play beyond they can create opportunity to get in front of scouts. Most players will get employment using their education before their on field baseball skills !  My 2015 had aspirations to be in professional baseball and his education and baseball experience at a HA D1 got him there......just not as a player!

IMO choosing a school is not just a 4 year decision but rather a lifetime decision.  The level (D1, D2, D3, NAIA or Juco) sometimes chooses the player but no matter which level consider playing college baseball as great accomplishment since only aprox. 6.7% of all high school players will move on to any one of the divisions!

@JABMK There are so many jobs in baseball, other than playing.

Kudos to your son. I hope that he is enjoying living his dream.

Just remember, for players wanting to advance to the pros from college, players gets scouted just as much if not more in the summer than in the spring.  Especially for position players, scouts want to see you hit with wood against great pitching.

And every summer D3 and D2 players “sneak” their way into the top 4 or 5 summer leagues and get scouted.

The other thing to remember is: Nobody gets scouted from the bench.

Allow me to repeat that:  Nobody gets scouted from the bench!  Don’t pick a level where you are never gonna play.

As far as the high school kid who thinks he’d get “bored” at too low a level: don’t worry, Baseball has a way of humbling every single player who ever steps in the batters box.

Just wait till he’s facing one of the top D3 pitchers with a 78 mph slider that moves 3 feet and a curve ball that looks like it’s coming at his head but drops right into the strike zone.  He’ll look silly enough then, walking back to the dugout wondering what just happened.

Or if he’s a pitcher, just wait till he faces one of the seemingly endless amount of great D3 hitters who ran 7.3 or 7.4 in high school but barrel up everything, especially with a big barrel BBCOR bat.  

@3and2Fastball posted:

Just remember, for players wanting to advance to the pros from college, players gets scouted just as much if not more in the summer than in the spring.  Especially for position players, scouts want to see you hit with wood against great pitching.

And every summer D3 and D2 players “sneak” their way into the top 4 or 5 summer leagues and get scouted.

The other thing to remember is: Nobody gets scouted from the bench.

Allow me to repeat that:  Nobody gets scouted from the bench!  Don’t pick a level where you are never gonna play.

As far as the high school kid who thinks he’d get “bored” at too low a level: don’t worry, Baseball has a way of humbling every single player who ever steps in the batters box.

Just wait till he’s facing one of the top D3 pitchers with a 78 mph slider that moves 3 feet and a curve ball that looks like it’s coming at his head but drops right into the strike zone.  He’ll look silly enough then, walking back to the dugout wondering what just happened.

Or if he’s a pitcher, just wait till he faces one of the seemingly endless amount of great D3 hitters who ran 7.3 or 7.4 in high school but barrel up everything, especially with a big barrel BBCOR bat.  

Don't doubt that a player can be humbled at any level. The issue is the wait time to face those humbling pitchers. If only occasionally being humbled, then I'd say that player would better benefit from moving on to something more challenging. Likewise, if a player is constantly being humbled, then they're probably going to be benched, if not already and would better benefit with finding a more appropriate level team.

At a minimum, be humbled the first time he faces himself - except the person he's facing is 2 - 3 years older, 30 lbs heavier, 2 inches taller, all tone muscle, who understands the college strike zone (oh, yeah, it's different from HS), college hitters, college game, and is finally getting a chance to start.

@Momball11 posted:

Don't doubt that a player can be humbled at any level. The issue is the wait time to face those humbling pitchers. If only occasionally being humbled, then I'd say that player would better benefit from moving on to something more challenging. Likewise, if a player is constantly being humbled, then they're probably going to be benched, if not already and would better benefit with finding a more appropriate level team.

Willie Mays got out in 70% of his at bats

A legit D1 player is not going to end up at a D3 coming out of high school.  He’ll get athletic money legit D1 offers if he is really a D1 stud.  It’s the bubble kids that are completely messed up mentally more often, thinking they can be the “exception” and that is often exasperated by parents, especially if those parents never played D1 or pro sports

@Goosegg posted:

There is no professional baseball reason or advantage conferred for choosing a particular school.

I agree with most of what you said, but not with this.  There are all kinds of advantages as you change levels in baseball.  There are differences in the facilities, such as weight rooms (you recently posted your son's on a different thread), although a determined player can make do with what he has.  But also the number of coaches, dedicated trainers, nutritionists, team meal tables, practices, etc. etc. is completely different at a D3 than at a D1, and at a lower-level D1 than at a P5.

Of course the most important thing is to play, both during the season and in the summer (the latter of which is mainly on the coach).

My thought on "too low a level" - the players on the field, at any school, are going to be the ones who work the hardest.  There will only be 9 of them.  There's a huge range of talent at every level, so even within a particular NCAA level, any player should be able to find a school that fits his skills and needs.

One D3 player last year hit over .500.  That means that every other D3 player got out more than half the time.

@Goosegg posted:

There is no professional baseball reason or advantage conferred for choosing a particular school.

I don't agree with this either.

Besides the obvious (what anotherparent posted), you will find a slew of players, now professionals, that will tell you that they attended a particular program because of a better chance of getting a higher draft opportunity.

JMO

The players will tell you that. And, they give alot back to their universities in terms of stature and money; it's all good - and universal!

Never have I heard that in a club side discussion. Club side is all that's important for these discussions.

Of course nutritionists, trainers, and the rest are important  - those were the very first parts of the campus shown. And, for college ball, this is a true difference as is the level of in-season competition and the number of coaches on the field. Most colleges even have programs designed to help the players through the academics.

But, to get to proball, it's all individual potential (i.e., a potential MLB tool) and individual determination (money is also an issue). 5am in the dark is 5am in the dark - maybe alot colder.

I personally don't believe that the overwhelming majority of college coaches develop players beyond what the player would have developed - a wins over replacement measure. It's always been for an individual player to outwork every other player in the country - that's the determination needed to advance (along with that tool).

So, those things can make a huge difference and there are quite obviously huge differences in programs, leagues, teams, divisions, etc.

(The rule 2 exception are those few coaches who actually develop players. These exist; they're unicorns, tho. And, of course they are universally recognized as good and are very upwardly mobile.)

I think we're talking two different things; I'm talking product (finding the guy with the tool) and you'll are talking process (better physical opportunity).

I'm going to expand in some thoughts.

There are huge differences in college programs and of that there can be no disagreement.

But, for example, never have I heard a discussion in the (baseball relevant) stands " gee, if he only went to coach X, he'd have been great," or "why is he still a skinny stringbean" or "what an amazing body."

I have heard, however, "I don't think he can hit with wood" or "without this turf field I think he'll have problems." Or the joke that the way a college coach creates a 92 mph pitcher is recruit him when he was 95.

(Now, I'm sure there are the rule 2 kids who bloomed late in college, weren't released, didnt play summer ball, and are now playing MLB, but that's why we have rule 2.)

@Goosegg,

Ok, you win.

Juco has worked out so far for my 2021 hs grad. He was young for his grade. He’s at a strong juco program in socal. Redshirted last year. He’s put on about 20 lbs, and started hitting the ball out this summer. We’ll see what happens this season. Was tough last year when he showed up and there were 23 year olds there. But between the long practices and time in the gym, he thinks his baseball is improving everyday. Perhaps not for everyone, but he thinks the juco route is making him a better player, and will hopefully open doors.

One factor that I haven’t seen mentioned in this thread is the subject of analytics. This year’s MLB draft was heavily populated with D1 players from schools that tracked data and provided that info to MLB scouts. Since analytic nerds are currently running (ruining?) the sport, picking a program that measures all the data would be a solid decision for players with pro talent and pro aspirations. Some schools are way more invested in this than others.

@PitchingFan posted:

I think you see it prevalently now.  Guys transferring from mid majors to P5.  I could start naming but maybe most well known was Sonny D

This is a very good point. While everyone talks about players that overshoot and end up moving to what may be a lesser school. There are plenty of kids that are using the transfer portal to move to more successful programs.....with varying success of course.

@TPM posted:

In a few weeks 2023 rosters will be out. So one can see who transferred where.

I tend to agree with PABaseball, lots of differences between D1 programs.  Geographics usually determines that.

JMO

Based on previous result, only 60% d1 provided fall rosters of which most 40% will not be the

be the complete fall roster

Here are some of the preliminary numbers

Here is Arizona State Incoming

Arizona State Turnover by position

I made this suggestion based on what former program a player might be transfering from last season.

@TPM posted:

I made this suggestion based on what former program a player might be transfering from last season.

These insights are based on the 2022 fall, we've uploaded ~143 fall rosters, they will be displayed as 2023.

@billsfanla posted:

Juco has worked out so far for my 2021 hs grad. He was young for his grade. He’s at a strong juco program in socal. Redshirted last year. He’s put on about 20 lbs, and started hitting the ball out this summer. We’ll see what happens this season. Was tough last year when he showed up and there were 23 year olds there. But between the long practices and time in the gym, he thinks his baseball is improving everyday. Perhaps not for everyone, but he thinks the juco route is making him a better player, and will hopefully open doors.

https://keepplayingbaseball.or...f-the-juco-pipeline/

Pick the level of baseball where you will get some playing time as a freshmen and will be a starter by Soph year.

Winning is a lot more fun than losing, so take this into consideration when picking a program.

Contributing on the field is a lot more fun than sitting on the bench.

Consistently top 20 nationally ranked D2/D3 programs have a lot of "D1" players. At my son's national championship D3 program at least 2/3 rd of the starters and contributors would play D1 ball  and 2, maybe 3, would play on a P5. (2 position, 1 pitcher)

Your major should take precedence over baseball program=  STEM is generally not compatible with D1 ball. 

Even if you do the above there are lots of reasons you may not get on the field much. (injuries, depth chart, coaches decisions, other)  There are lots of variables why you won't get on the field so increase your odds by "playing down"

Most HS players and their parents have no idea how freaking hard college baseball really is.

@Francis7

You can head over to the  D1Baseball transfer tracker and see how many have transfered "up". LSU made a huge haul of top prospects this past summer.

Last transfer is from Air Force. He states it was done for a better draft opportunity.

That and a nice lump sum of money.  I would say all the LSU guys moved up and they can say what they want but the large sums of money that were handed out were a big part of it.  I know 2 of them had a clear amount of NIL money it would take for them to transfer.

@PitchingFan posted:

That and a nice lump sum of money.  I would say all the LSU guys moved up and they can say what they want but the large sums of money that were handed out were a big part of it.  I know 2 of them had a clear amount of NIL money it would take for them to transfer.

Let's just say that you are probably right without accusing, "pay for play".

How does one get out of their commitment to the service academies?

@TPM posted:

Let's just say that you are probably right without accusing, "pay for play".

How does one get out of their commitment to the service academies?

As I understand it, the Air Force Academy can (and has) released baseball players from their service commitment to allow them to pursue pro ball opportunities. Happened a few years ago with a Dallas area kid who is now in the Marlins org.