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adbono posted:
Steve A. posted:

Does the push for higher launch angle at the MLB level create a greater market / opportunity for sinkerball pitchers vs high velo guys??

Will pitchers with 88-91 but exceptional movement make a comeback? Seems like if you are not 95+ as a RHP now you have almost no shot.

It figures that if MLB swings are all adding loft & my guy has a FB that sinks this may be a formula for success even if it is below average velo..

Pitches up in the zone are more effective against an uphill swing.  Look at what AL pitchers did to Joey Gallo during his rookie season. Pitches with sink are always good but they can run into a swing that starts low and ends high.

Just about to make that point. The elevated fastball is back and I like it!

Steve A. posted:

Does the push for higher launch angle at the MLB level create a greater market / opportunity for sinkerball pitchers vs high velo guys??

Will pitchers with 88-91 but exceptional movement make a comeback? Seems like if you are not 95+ as a RHP now you have almost no shot.

It figures that if MLB swings are all adding loft & my guy has a FB that sinks this may be a formula for success even if it is below average velo..

Both pitchers can have success.  I think the question is who can have more success when they are not at 100%?  Or in other words, who will have more success with mistake pitches?  

Lincecum is a great example.  I guy who had plus velocity that was dominate who could miss with any pitch and still have success.  Than a guy who had plus movement with below average velocity that hitters could just wait for a mistake and crush it.  

 

real green posted:

Is this really a new concept?  Or just new technology that allows data to be collected and analyzed.  I have never had or heard a coach preach ground balls as the goal or heard a coach preach fly balls.  It's always been hard line drives up the mental.  Mishit balls could be hard grounders or with enough power HR's.   

I think it is the former rather than latter. The data has been used to determine that at the Big League Level, Exit Velocity alone (hard line drives), can translate into higher Slugging % if the "Launch Angle" is elevated in a certain range. So instead of missile singles, you have gap extra base hits & added HR which = Increased Runs which = More Wins. 

Steve A. posted:
real green posted:

Is this really a new concept?  Or just new technology that allows data to be collected and analyzed.  I have never had or heard a coach preach ground balls as the goal or heard a coach preach fly balls.  It's always been hard line drives up the mental.  Mishit balls could be hard grounders or with enough power HR's.   

I think it is the former rather than latter. The data has been used to determine that at the Big League Level, Exit Velocity alone (hard line drives), can translate into higher Slugging % if the "Launch Angle" is elevated in a certain range. So instead of missile singles, you have gap extra base hits & added HR which = Increased Runs which = More Wins. 

I'm going to respectfully disagree just a little. First, I think the data holds up regardless of level. If anything, lower levels should show even higher hit probabilities for the same EV and launch angle since the fielders aren't as good. Of course drawing the same conclusions at a lower level, such as teaching HS kids to swing harder and swing with a steeper angle would be a mistake because those kids are never going to hit a ball 110 mph in high school. Second, I think the new thing here is the significant impact of EV on hit probability. I'm sure there are some wise old timers who figured that out years ago, but I think the analysis of this data has motivated hitters to get stronger and swing harder.
 
statcast_gam7a
 
MidAtlanticDad posted:
Steve A. posted:
real green posted:

Is this really a new concept?  Or just new technology that allows data to be collected and analyzed.  I have never had or heard a coach preach ground balls as the goal or heard a coach preach fly balls.  It's always been hard line drives up the mental.  Mishit balls could be hard grounders or with enough power HR's.   

I think it is the former rather than latter. The data has been used to determine that at the Big League Level, Exit Velocity alone (hard line drives), can translate into higher Slugging % if the "Launch Angle" is elevated in a certain range. So instead of missile singles, you have gap extra base hits & added HR which = Increased Runs which = More Wins. 

I'm going to respectfully disagree just a little. First, I think the data holds up regardless of level. If anything, lower levels should show even higher hit probabilities for the same EV and launch angle since the fielders aren't as good. Of course drawing the same conclusions at a lower level, such as teaching HS kids to swing harder and swing with a steeper angle would be a mistake because those kids are never going to hit a ball 110 mph in high school. Second, I think the new thing here is the significant impact of EV on hit probability. I'm sure there are some wise old timers who figured that out years ago, but I think the analysis of this data has motivated hitters to get stronger and swing harder.
 
statcast_gam7a
 

12-13 degrees seems to be the sweet spot based on this graph.  I would assume the pinch at the 90mph is the average exit velocity of MLB  which is how the defense is set up to defend. 

HS you might see that pinch at 75 or 80mph exit.   

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real green posted:


12-13 degrees seems to be the sweet spot based on this graph.  I would assume the pinch at the 90mph is the average exit velocity of MLB  which is how the defense is set up to defend. 

HS you might see that pinch at 75 or 80mph exit.   

I look at that spot as hard hit LDs on the top, to softly hit LDs and flares at the bottom. The top part includes balls going over guys' heads and balls getting down quickly in the gaps, and the bottom part is balls dropping in front of the OFers. The pinch point is still .500, but I'm guessing that half of those balls are hit at the OFs.

A few more notes on this topic as it relates to HS... in addition to the previously mentioned typical lack of power and timing to be able to make a "lift" approach successful with any degree of consistency...

All of this is assuming something close to the norm or average...

HS infielders have far less range, fielding prowess, arm strength and accuracy than mid-level and above college and pro IF's.

The one thing HS players do best defensively is track and catch fly balls and there is no throw involved in completing the putout.

HS hitters are not nearly as consistent at finding the sweetspot of the barrel.

The effect of a less-than-perfect playing surface comes into play much more so on ground balls than fly balls.  

 

Again, I am not promoting a ground ball teach or approach.  But I am adding supporting factors that back up more of a neutral line drive/path on plane of pitch approach at this level.    

 

 

Last edited by cabbagedad

The lowest team fielding percentage in MLB so far in 2018 is .979. And just about every big league hitter has the juice to get out of the yard if they elevate more. It makes a lot of sense why this change is happening.

At the high school level. Your hitters with lower exit velo (below 85 MPH static) should be at 10-20 aLA. At that LA the ball is out of the infield, giving them their best chance at extra bases, which drives run production more than groundball singles/forced errors. Your higher exit velo guys should around 20-30 degree aLA  - doubles and home runs.

Do hitters need to see these numbers all the time? No, don't become a slave to the data. As a player you still have to develop feel. Votto said it best, let the ball be your feedback. Coaches should be looking at those numbers, if available, as often as possible. It will help guide their approach to different hitters. "Hey Nick, I've noticed the past couple of days in the cage your aLA is a bit higher than what we'd like it to be, what have you been focusing on? Lets get some film today and think about driving the ball a bit lower and take a look" ---that type of engagement with today's player is HUGELY impactful. Couple that batted ball data with swing metrics using something like Blast or Zepp? Now you're cooking with gas. "Hey Nick, I've noticed the past couple of days in the cage your aLA is a bit higher than what we'd like it to be. Also your attack angle is getting up there, lets grab some film today and take a look, you may be losing your barrel somewhere or lifting too much through contact. Remember, you're not a high EV guy, these balls you're hitting at 30 degrees won't play for you the same way they will for our big guys" 

The screens showed here at Iowa are phenomenal visual aides for players. 

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